Lion (4912) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥498.97B
• Dividend Yield: 1.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 2.18%
• EPS Growth: 60.81%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,654
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Household & Personal Products
• EPS (TTM): 24.49
• Shares Outstanding: 279,782,750
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,063,460
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,106,010
• PEG Ratio: 0.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,005.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 94.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥432.95B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,037.00 ▲(21.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial health and improving profitability, alongside strong technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages. Valuation is acceptable but not especially cheap, and the dividend yield is modest, slightly tempering the overall score.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

A substantial equity base and historically low leverage provide durable financial flexibility, allowing Lion to fund R&D, marketing, and working capital without large refinancing risk. This supports resilience through cycles and the capacity to pursue strategic initiatives over months to years.

Steady revenue growth and profit rebound

Consistent top-line expansion alongside a meaningful jump in net income indicates improving underlying demand and operational recovery. That trend supports sustainable cash generation and provides room to reinvest in brands and innovation over the medium term.

Solid operating cash flow and recovering FCF

Reliable operating cash flow and a recent rebound in free cash flow enhance Lion's ability to fund capital expenditure, dividends, and debt repayment. Improved cash conversion, if sustained, strengthens balance sheet resilience and funds strategic spending over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Negative Factors

Margin compression vs prior cycle

Margins remain materially below earlier-cycle levels, implying sustained cost pressures or an adverse product mix. If structural, this reduces operating leverage and returns on incremental sales, limiting ability to expand profitably without pricing power or efficiency gains.

Uneven earnings-to-cash conversion

Inconsistent conversion of accounting profits into free cash flow increases reliance on working capital management and disciplined capex to sustain cash returns. Persistent volatility could constrain dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment despite reported net income gains.

Notable debt increase in 2025

A sharp rise in debt, if sustained, can erode the company's low-leverage advantage, raising interest expense and reducing financial flexibility. Over the medium term this could crowd out investment or require stronger cash generation to maintain credit quality.

Lion Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lion Corporation manufactures and sells consumer and industrial products in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Consumer Products Business, Industrial Products Business, and Overseas Business. The company offers dental and oral care products, including toothpastes, toothbrushes, dental floss, dental rinses, mouthwashes and breath fresheners, periodontitis ointments, and denture products; body care products, such as shampoos and conditioners, hand soaps, sanitizers, wet wipes, body washes, skin and acne care products, antiperspirants and deodorants, hair-nourishment treatments, men's care and toiletries products, and foot care products. It also provides antipyretic analgesics, eye drops and eye care products, cold medicines, gargles, cold relief products, topical anti-inflammatory analgesics, antidiarrheal and gastrointestinal medicines, health tonic drinks and vitamin supplements, acne and anti-drowsiness medicines, and dermatologic agents. In addition, the company offers fabric care products, such as laundry detergent, delicate detergent, prewash treatment, stain remover, bleach, and fabric softener; clothing care products; household cleaners; kitchen cleanup products comprises dishwashing detergents and antibacterial and deodorizing products; and food preparation products. Further, it provides health and beauty food products consisting of supplements and health tonic drinks; specialty chemicals, and chemical products, include rubber processing and additive agents, mandrel release agents, fatty acid methyl esters, plant-based electrical insulating oils, concrete admixtures, ground improvement and asphalt recycling agents, surfactants, and cosmetics ingredients, as well as electro-conductive carbon black and pressure-sensitive adhesives; pet supplies; and gift and special order products. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Lion generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its food and beverage products. Key revenue streams include the sale of dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and nutritional goods, which are distributed through both retail channels and direct sales to businesses. Lion has established significant partnerships with retailers and distributors, enhancing its market reach and brand visibility. Additionally, the company benefits from economies of scale in production and a strong supply chain, which contribute to its profitability. Seasonal promotions and product innovation also play a crucial role in driving sales and increasing consumer engagement.

Lion Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth with a clear profit rebound in 2024, supported by a historically conservative balance sheet and low leverage. Offsets include margin compression versus 2020 levels, uneven free-cash-flow conversion, and a notable debt increase in 2025 that warrants monitoring.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020–2025 (latest annual revenue up to ~¥422bn), but growth is low-single-digit in the most recent reported years. Profitability improved meaningfully from 2023 to 2024 (net income rising from ~¥14.6bn to ~¥21.2bn and operating profit also higher), indicating a recovery phase. However, margins are below earlier-cycle levels (2024 net margin ~5.1% vs ~8.4% in 2020), suggesting cost pressure and a less favorable mix than in prior years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with a strong equity base (equity ~¥294bn in 2024) and low leverage in 2022–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.10–0.12). Asset growth has been steady alongside equity growth, supporting financial flexibility. A key watch item is the sharp increase in total debt in 2025 (~¥54bn vs ~¥30bn in 2024), which could reduce flexibility if it persists, though overall leverage still appears manageable given the equity level.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally positive with operating cash flow consistently solid (roughly ¥30–44bn across 2022–2025). Free cash flow is volatile: it was negative in 2021, weak in 2023, then rebounded strongly in 2024 and remained healthy in 2025 (¥22.6bn), helped by improving underlying performance. Still, conversion of accounting earnings into free cash flow has been uneven (free cash flow below net income in 2023–2024), which increases reliance on working-capital and spending discipline to sustain the recent rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	422.09B	412.94B	402.77B	389.87B	366.23B
Gross Profit	193.92B	188.78B	180.60B	174.61B	179.10B
EBITDA	51.89B	49.55B	43.42B	47.31B	46.06B
Net Income	27.59B	21.20B	14.62B	21.94B	23.76B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	528.60B	497.17B	486.36B	469.28B	428.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	88.09B	102.24B	85.53B	101.08B	97.25B
Total Debt	54.44B	29.74B	30.34B	32.17B	8.37B
Total Liabilities	180.17B	181.47B	188.23B	190.11B	163.01B
Stockholders Equity	322.73B	293.72B	280.32B	264.25B	251.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.57B	25.60B	5.08B	18.82B	-23.63B
Operating Cash Flow	40.65B	43.66B	30.07B	41.96B	19.30B
Investing Cash Flow	-43.37B	-7.66B	-34.79B	-19.54B	-34.18B
Financing Cash Flow	-12.50B	-21.20B	-11.76B	-19.82B	-10.22B

Lion Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1671.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4912, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1671 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1754.22, below the 50-day MA of 1703.51, and above the 200-day MA of 1583.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 34.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4912.

Lion Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8113	78 Outperform	¥1.96T	28.67	10.79%	3.47%	-1.56%	-1.15%
4912	76 Outperform	¥498.97B	18.43	9.77%	1.73%	2.18%	60.81%
4527	71 Outperform	¥566.93B	16.01	13.22%	1.53%	18.35%	31.87%
4452	70 Outperform	¥3.02T	25.64	11.70%	2.41%	4.62%	47.68%
4922	69 Neutral	¥355.71B	23.54	2.72%	2.61%	1.37%	-5.60%
4967	65 Neutral	¥432.37B	118.54	5.37%	1.95%	-3.33%	13.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Lion Corporate Events

Lion to Book ¥15.9 Billion Extraordinary Gain From Sale of Chemical Subsidiaries

Lion Corporation will record an estimated ¥15,953 million in extraordinary income on a non-consolidated basis from the transfer of all shares in two consolidated subsidiaries in its chemical products business. The gain arises from the sale of Lion Specialty Chemicals Co., Ltd. and its Indonesian subsidiary PT. IPPOSHA INDONESIA to AP88 Co., Ltd., a special purpose company backed by a fund serviced by Advantage Partners, with the June 30, 2026 share transfer already incorporated into Lion’s 2026 full-year consolidated earnings forecast, signaling a strategic reshaping of its portfolio and earnings structure.

The transaction is expected to boost interim non-consolidated results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, while also affecting consolidated performance at the Lion Group level. By divesting these specialty chemical assets, Lion appears to be reallocating capital and management focus toward its core operations, which may refine its business mix and risk profile for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4912) stock is a Hold with a Yen1770.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion stock, see the JP:4912 Stock Forecast page.

Lion to Divest Specialty Chemicals Units to Advantage Partners-Backed AP88

Lion Corporation has decided to transfer all shares of its consolidated subsidiary Lion Specialty Chemicals Co., Ltd. and that company’s Indonesian subsidiary PT. IPPOSHA INDONESIA to AP88 Co., Ltd., a vehicle backed by a fund serviced by Advantage Partners, Inc. The deal reflects Lion’s drive under its Vision2030 2nd STAGE plan to reshape its business portfolio and focus on strengthening profitability.

Management has designated its Chemical Products business for structural reform amid significant shifts in the market environment, and concluded the two units can grow faster under an owner specializing in carve-out transactions. By spinning off these operations, Lion aims to concentrate resources on core businesses, while the chemical subsidiaries pursue more flexible and aggressive strategies under Advantage Partners’ stewardship.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4912) stock is a Hold with a Yen1770.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion stock, see the JP:4912 Stock Forecast page.

Lion boosts profit and dividends as 2025 earnings strengthen balance sheet

Lion Corporation reported a 2.2% rise in net sales to ¥422.1 billion for 2025, while operating profit jumped 28.1% and profit attributable to owners of the parent climbed 30.1%, reflecting improved margins and solid core operating income growth. Profitability ratios, including operating margin and return on equity attributable to owners, strengthened year on year, though cash and cash equivalents declined due to heavier investing cash outflows and reduced operating cash flow, as the company also raised annual dividends and signaled continued shareholder returns.

The company’s financial position remained robust, with total assets expanding to ¥528.6 billion and the equity ratio improving to 61.1%, indicating a stronger balance sheet that supports its medium-term growth investments. Lion’s dividend per share increased from ¥27.00 to ¥30.00 in fiscal 2025 and is forecast to rise further in 2026, underscoring management’s confidence in earnings sustainability and offering incremental income to shareholders despite tighter liquidity from larger investment spending.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4912) stock is a Hold with a Yen1770.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion stock, see the JP:4912 Stock Forecast page.