Kose (4922) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥355.71B
• Dividend Yield: 2.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 501.01K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 1.37%
• EPS Growth: -5.60%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 8,130
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Household & Personal Products
• EPS (TTM): 100.34
• Shares Outstanding: 60,592,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,058,140
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 501,006
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -50.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,148.57
• Price Target Upside: -1.63% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 228.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥340.28B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥6,644.00 ▲(26.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial safety from a very conservative balance sheet, offset by weakened profitability and negative free cash flow in the last two years. Technically, the stock is in an uptrend but looks overextended (high RSI), and valuation appears only moderately attractive at a 22.8 P/E despite a 2.31% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage and growing equity give KOSÉ durable financial resilience. This conservative capital structure preserves flexibility to fund strategic initiatives, absorb industry volatility, and maintain operations during downturns without relying on external financing.

Steady revenue growth

A return to modest top-line growth through 2025 indicates recovering demand and effective product/channel execution. Sustained revenue expansion supports scale economics, funds brand investment, and provides a base for rebuilding margins over the next several quarters.

High gross margins

Consistently high gross margins reflect pricing power and efficient product economics in beauty categories. This structural advantage allows KOSÉ to invest in marketing, R&D and premium brand positioning while absorbing input cost swings better than lower-margin peers.

Negative Factors

Compressed profitability / ROE decline

A pronounced drop in ROE signals weaker earnings power versus capital employed. If sustained, lower return on capital constrains reinvestment, limits ability to grow shareholder value, and suggests the company must address margin drivers or capital efficiency to restore long-term profitability.

Negative free cash flow

Two consecutive years of negative free cash flow reduce financial flexibility despite low leverage. Persistent FCF deficits can force reliance on cash reserves or new financing for capex, product launches, or dividends, limiting strategic options and raising execution risk.

Volatile operating cash generation

Instability in operating cash flow undermines predictable fund availability for marketing, innovation and working capital. Structural volatility—if driven by inventory, receivables or demand shifts—makes multi-quarter planning harder and can erode margin recovery prospects.

Kose Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KOSÉ Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells cosmetics primarily in Asia, the United States, and internationally. It offers cleansing, facial wash, toner, emulsion, cream, gel/serum, pack mask, lip care, and massage products. The company also provides sunscreen, fragrance, makeup goods, hair products, beauty supplements, and other cosmetics. It offers its cosmetics under the DECORTÉ, JILLSTUART, ADDICTION, INFINITY, Awake, tarte, ALBION, MIYABI, Paul & Joe, IGNIS, Elegance, INFIORE, ANNA SUI, Predia, iMPREA, X-Barrier, ACNEO, ASTALUXE, MAIHADA, LECHÉRI, ESPRIQUE, SEKKISEI, ONE BY KOSÉ, Visée, FASIO, NAILHOLIC, BIOLISS, Magnifique, CLEAR TURN, BIOLISS, Je l'aime, softymo, SUNCUT, MAKE KEEP MIST, and GRACE ONE brands. It offers its products through specialty cosmetic stores, department stores, cosmetics stores, mass retailers, drugstores, convenience stores, and other retail outlets, as well as e-commerce. KOSÉ Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Kose generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its beauty and skincare products through various distribution channels, including department stores, drugstores, and online platforms. The company's strong brand recognition and wide product range allow it to capture a diverse customer base, contributing significantly to its sales. Additionally, Kose engages in strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors to expand its market reach and enhance its product visibility. The company also invests in research and development to innovate new products and improve existing ones, thus driving consumer interest and sales. Revenue is further bolstered by seasonal promotions and marketing campaigns that enhance brand appeal and drive purchases.

Kose Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong, low-debt balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~4%) supports financial resilience, but profitability has compressed versus 2021–2022 and cash flow has deteriorated, with free cash flow negative in 2024–2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2022–2025 (2025 annual revenue up modestly), showing a return to growth after the 2022 decline. However, profitability is mixed: gross margin remains strong (~69–71% in 2022–2024), but operating and net profitability have compressed versus 2021–2022 levels (EBITDA margin down from ~13% to ~9–10% in 2023–2024; net margin down from ~6–6.5% to ~2.3% in 2024). Net income rebounded in 2025 versus 2024, but overall earnings power looks less stable than earlier years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with very low leverage: debt-to-equity stays around ~4% in 2022–2024, and equity has grown over time (supporting financial flexibility). Returns on equity have moderated (from ~7% in 2021–2022 to ~2.8% in 2024), which signals weaker profitability rather than balance sheet strain. Overall, the company appears well-capitalized with ample capacity to absorb volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become more volatile. Operating cash flow was strong in 2023 but fell in 2024 and again in 2025, and free cash flow turned negative in 2024 and remained negative in 2025 after being solidly positive in 2021–2023. This suggests either higher investment needs and/or weaker cash conversion recently, which reduces near-term financial flexibility despite the strong balance sheet.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	324.15B	330.19B	322.76B	300.41B	289.14B	299.98B
Gross Profit	221.31B	221.62B	222.57B	211.20B	205.51B	204.15B
EBITDA	25.91B	31.05B	29.55B	30.10B	38.63B	39.70B
Net Income	3.00B	15.12B	7.51B	11.66B	18.77B	17.79B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	368.34B	393.45B	383.12B	371.66B	359.60B	320.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.35B	92.46B	113.97B	132.85B	116.53B	105.28B
Total Debt	10.10B	10.65B	11.22B	10.21B	9.98B	1.42B
Total Liabilities	78.22B	88.67B	92.49B	88.62B	84.25B	65.75B
Stockholders Equity	270.14B	284.19B	272.30B	266.16B	258.99B	238.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-5.92B	-2.67B	24.92B	13.16B	12.99B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	11.14B	18.38B	30.44B	20.26B	17.80B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-17.74B	-8.93B	-11.23B	-6.31B	-4.72B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-10.00B	-8.68B	-9.68B	-7.31B	-14.30B

Kose Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5234.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4922, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5234 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5969.20, below the 50-day MA of 5597.93, and below the 200-day MA of 5605.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 174.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4922.

Kose Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4912	76 Outperform	¥498.97B	18.43	9.77%	1.73%	2.18%	60.81%
4527	71 Outperform	¥566.93B	16.01	13.22%	1.53%	18.35%	31.87%
4452	70 Outperform	¥3.02T	25.64	11.70%	2.41%	4.62%	47.68%
4922	69 Neutral	¥355.71B	23.54	2.72%	2.61%	1.37%	-5.60%
4927	69 Neutral	¥304.85B	32.19	6.05%	3.92%	-1.16%	36.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
4911	58 Neutral	¥1.32T	-32.41	―	2.11%	-1.20%	-2896.72%

Kose Corporate Events

KOSÉ Unveils ¥3 Billion Share Buyback Tied to 80th Anniversary Payout

KOSÉ Holdings Corporation, a Japanese cosmetics and beauty products group listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, is executing a medium- to long-term plan under its “Vision for Lifelong Beauty Partner–Milestone 2030.” The company seeks to balance growth investments with improved capital profitability and a stronger focus on shareholder returns.

The board has approved a share repurchase program of up to 650,000 shares, or about 1.14% of shares outstanding, with a ceiling of ¥3 billion to be executed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 13 and April 20, 2026. The buyback, together with a commemorative dividend planned for the firm’s 80th anniversary in 2026, signals an effort to boost capital efficiency and cash distribution, underscoring management’s commitment to shareholder-friendly capital allocation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4922) stock is a Hold with a Yen5805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kose stock, see the JP:4922 Stock Forecast page.

KOSÉ to Boost 2026 Dividend With 80th Anniversary Payout

KOSÉ Holdings Corporation has announced plans to include a commemorative dividend in its 2026 payout to mark the 80th anniversary of its founding in March 2026. The company will add a special 10 yen per share dividend to the 2026 year-end payment, raising the forecast total annual dividend to 150 yen per share, up from 140 yen in 2025.

The 2026 dividend forecast consists of a 70 yen interim dividend and an 80 yen year-end dividend, of which 10 yen is the one-off anniversary component. This move underscores KOSÉ’s intention to reward shareholders for their long-term support, signaling confidence in its financial position and strengthening its appeal to income-focused investors ahead of the milestone year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4922) stock is a Hold with a Yen5805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kose stock, see the JP:4922 Stock Forecast page.

KOSÉ Lifts FY2025 Earnings, Keeps Dividend as 2026 Outlook Signals Profit Pressure

KOSÉ reported a modest 2.3% rise in consolidated net sales to ¥330.2 billion for fiscal 2025, with operating profit up 6.3% and profit attributable to owners of parent more than doubling to ¥15.1 billion, helped by improved profitability and the finalization of accounting for a prior business combination. The company maintained its annual dividend at ¥140 per share for 2025 and plans to raise it to ¥150 in 2026, including a commemorative component, while forecasting 6.0% sales growth but a near 20% drop in bottom-line profit, signaling continued top-line expansion but pressure on earnings and margins in the coming year.

On a non-consolidated basis, KOSÉ swung back to profit in 2025, posting net income of ¥14.6 billion after a loss in the previous year, strengthening its balance sheet with higher net assets and an equity ratio near 79%. Cash flows from operations declined year on year and cash and cash equivalents fell to ¥90.7 billion, suggesting greater investment and shareholder returns as the group balances growth initiatives with capital allocation and dividend stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4922) stock is a Hold with a Yen5805.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kose stock, see the JP:4922 Stock Forecast page.

KOSÉ Cuts Size of Treasury Share Disposal for Employee Stock Ownership Plan After Partial Forfeiture

KOSÉ Holdings Corporation has completed payment procedures for the disposal of treasury shares used as a restricted stock incentive under its Employee Stock Ownership Plan. Following confirmation of the number of employees agreeing to participate in the plan, the company reduced the number of shares to be allotted from 280,620 to 172,110, lowering the total disposal value from ¥1.8 billion to approximately ¥1.1 billion, while maintaining the disposal price per share. The adjustment reflects actual employee participation levels and modestly scales back the size of this equity-based incentive program, but continues to align employee interests with shareholder value through stock ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4922) stock is a Hold with a Yen5236.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kose stock, see the JP:4922 Stock Forecast page.