Jakks Pacific (JAKK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $224.77M
• Dividend Yield: 5.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 145.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -16.49%
• EPS Growth: -81.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 680
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 11,444,411
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 77,757
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 145,701
• PEG Ratio: -0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: -176.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.87
• 1Y Price Target: $27.00
• Price Target Upside: 37.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $612.45M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(1.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

JAKK scores in the low-50s primarily due to weakened TTM financial performance (sharp revenue decline, margin compression, and slightly negative free cash flow) despite a relatively solid balance sheet. Technicals are modestly constructive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is offsetting (high dividend yield but elevated P/E). Earnings call commentary supports cautious optimism on margin focus and modest 2026 growth, but tariffs and top-line volatility remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet & cash cushion

An unlevered balance sheet with $54M cash provides durable financial flexibility. It supports continued licensing investments, funds working capital swings during volatile retail order patterns, and enables shareholder returns without increasing solvency risk, strengthening long-term resilience.

Multi-year high gross margin (32.4%)

Gross margin at a 15-year high indicates structural improvement in product costing and inventory management. Sustained higher gross margins support better operating leverage, cushion against royalty/mix pressures, and create durable capacity to fund SG&A and reinvestment even if top-line growth is modest.

Brand/product momentum and retail wins

Strong licensed tie-ins and successful product debuts reflect competitive content relationships and execution. Growing SKU momentum in core categories supports sustainable revenue streams, improves retailer placement, and underpins international distribution expansion as a multi-year growth driver.

Negative Factors

Sharp TTM revenue decline

A roughly 63% TTM revenue decline materially reduces scale and fixed-cost absorption. Persistent top-line erosion impairs pricing power, weakens negotiating leverage on licenses and retail terms, and raises execution risk for margin recovery plans absent steady reorder improvements.

Deteriorated cash generation; negative FCF

Weak cash conversion and slightly negative FCF limit reinvestment capacity and make dividends and strategic spending more contingent on cyclical recovery. Reduced cash generation increases sensitivity to working-capital swings and constrains sustained product investment or larger licensing commitments.

Tariff-driven demand disruption

Material tariff costs have structurally depressed customer reorders and raised retail prices, reducing demand elasticity. Ongoing tariff exposure creates persistent top-line headwinds and margin volatility unless product sourcing or pricing strategies are changed, heightening medium-term execution risk.

Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. develops, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys, consumables, and electronics and related products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The company offers action figures and accessories, such as licensed characters; toy vehicles and accessories; dolls and accessories, including small, large, fashion, and baby dolls based on licenses, as well as infant and pre-school products; private label products; and foot-to-floor ride-on products, inflatable environments, tents, and wagons. The company also provides role play, dress-up, pretend play, and novelty products for boys and girls based on brands and entertainment properties, as well as on its own proprietary brands; and indoor and outdoor kids' furniture, activity trays and tables, room décor, kiddie pools, and seasonal and outdoor products. In addition, it offers Halloween and everyday costumes for various ages based on licensed and proprietary non-licensed brands, and related Halloween accessories; outdoor activity toys; and junior sports toys, including hyper-charged balls, sport sets, and toy hoops. The company sells its products through in-house sales staff and independent sales representatives to toy and mass-market retail chain stores, department stores, office supply stores, drug and grocery store chains, club stores, value-oriented dollar stores, toy specialty stores, and wholesalers. JAKKS Pacific, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

How the Company Makes Money

JAKKS Pacific makes money primarily by selling physical consumer products to retailers and distributors, generating revenue when it ships finished goods (toys and other play products) under wholesale arrangements. A significant portion of its toy business is driven by licensed intellectual property (e.g., from entertainment studios and content owners), where JAKKS pays royalties to licensors and earns gross profit from the spread between product selling price and the total cost of goods sold (manufacturing, freight, duties) plus licensing costs. Its Disguise business generates revenue through the design and sale of costumes and costume accessories, which are highly seasonal (typically stronger around Halloween) and similarly sold through wholesale channels to retailers and distributors. Key factors influencing earnings include the strength and timing of major entertainment releases tied to its licenses, retailer ordering patterns and inventory levels, the company’s ability to secure and renew attractive licensing agreements, product mix and pricing, and supply-chain inputs such as manufacturing costs, ocean freight, and tariffs/duties. If applicable in specific periods, the company may also benefit from international distribution and from direct-to-consumer/e-commerce sales where it sells to consumers at retail prices, but detailed breakdowns depend on the company’s segment and channel disclosures.

Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet is relatively solid with modest leverage (debt ~0.21x equity) and positive ROE (~4%), but TTM operating results weakened sharply with revenue down ~63% YoY, compressed net margins (~1.7%), and free cash flow turning slightly negative (about -$1.1M) despite positive operating cash flow (~$8.5M).

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have weakened meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue fell sharply (down ~63% versus the prior year), and margins compressed versus 2023–2024: net margin is ~1.7% in TTM versus ~4.9% in 2024 and ~5.4% in 2023. The company remains profitable in TTM, but earnings power has clearly downshifted from the stronger 2022–2024 period, when operating profitability and net income were materially higher.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks relatively solid with modest leverage: debt is ~0.21x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved from higher leverage in earlier years (notably 2020–2021). Equity is sizable versus total assets, and returns on equity are positive in TTM (~4%) after strong levels in 2022–2024, though the step-down in returns signals reduced profitability rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Operating cash flow is positive (~$8.5M) but far below prior years (e.g., ~$38.9M in 2024 and ~$66.4M in 2023), and free cash flow turned slightly negative (about -$1.1M). Cash conversion also looks weaker versus the last several annual periods, increasing reliance on working capital swings and reducing flexibility if the earnings slowdown persists.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	570.67M	691.04M	711.56M	796.19M	621.12M
Gross Profit	185.08M	213.02M	223.35M	211.29M	182.96M
EBITDA	25.47M	50.87M	59.98M	71.84M	18.69M
Net Income	9.87M	33.92M	38.41M	91.41M	-6.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	442.20M	444.87M	398.95M	405.34M	357.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.07M	69.94M	72.55M	85.30M	44.52M
Total Debt	92.94M	56.52M	24.05M	87.76M	114.03M
Total Liabilities	193.09M	204.04M	202.84M	258.64M	299.15M
Stockholders Equity	249.10M	240.33M	195.41M	145.70M	56.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.07M	27.70M	57.50M	75.71M	-14.10M
Operating Cash Flow	8.49M	38.95M	66.40M	86.10M	-5.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.34M	-12.89M	-8.91M	-10.39M	-8.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-16.90M	-26.92M	-72.29M	-31.02M	-32.79M

Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 19.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.72, above the 50-day MA of 19.31, and above the 200-day MA of 18.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JAKK.

Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HAS	61 Neutral	$12.82B	-36.02	-54.74%	3.44%	0.87%	14.02%
MAT	58 Neutral	$4.48B	15.88	18.08%	―	-2.36%	-16.06%
JAKK	52 Neutral	$224.77M	-8.87	4.05%	5.97%	-16.49%	-81.62%
FNKO	49 Neutral	$184.79M	-2.75	-35.34%	―	-11.32%	-165.08%
PLBY	48 Neutral	$202.15M	-14.88	754.17%	―	60.60%	66.17%
DOGZ	46 Neutral	$21.25M	-43.11	-5.92%	―	39.47%	31.39%

Jakks Pacific Corporate Events

Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders

On February 18, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders and signaling confidence in its ongoing cash generation and balance sheet strength. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 27, 2026, providing a defined timeline for investors to qualify for the payout.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.