Orix Corp Ads (IX)
NYSE:IX
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Orix
(NYSE:IX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(55.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong 2026 profitability and cash generation) but tempered by high leverage and historical volatility in margins/cash conversion. Valuation is supportive (low-to-moderate P/E with a dividend), while technicals show a strong uptrend that appears overbought. Earnings-call tone was positive on performance and buybacks, but guidance remained unchanged amid clearly stated macro and credit-related risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
ORIX produced robust operating and free cash flow in 2026, with FCF near reported earnings and operating cash flow covering earnings ~2.54x. Durable cash generation supports reinvestment, buybacks, and dividend capacity, reducing reliance on external funding over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage and rising debt
Meaningful leverage and rising total debt increase sensitivity to funding-cost shocks and limit strategic flexibility. In a higher-rate or tighter credit environment, debt servicing and refinancing needs could compress margins and constrain capital deployment over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
ORIX produced robust operating and free cash flow in 2026, with FCF near reported earnings and operating cash flow covering earnings ~2.54x. Durable cash generation supports reinvestment, buybacks, and dividend capacity, reducing reliance on external funding over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Orix (IX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.88B
Dividend Yield2.72%
Average Volume (3M)327.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth16.88%
EPS Growth32.48%
CountryUS
Employees33,807
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)417.53
Shares Outstanding1,124,106,600
10 Day Avg. Volume270,200
30 Day Avg. Volume327,993
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.51
P/FCF Ratio3.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap308.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.62
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.09B
Orix Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance...
How the Company Makes Money
ORIX makes money through a combination of (1) recurring financial-services income and (2) investment/asset-based earnings. Key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (a) Interest income and financing margins: ORIX originates loans and oth...
Orix Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial results for the first 9 months with record third-quarter cumulative net income, sizable pretax profit growth, doubled investment-segment earnings and active capital recycling and buybacks—indicating robust near-term performance and capital returns. However, management emphasized several material risks and uncertainties including a sharp decline in Chinese inbound tourism affecting airport and Kansai-area operations, legacy credit and real estate issues (notably in the U.S.), pressure in banking from higher funding costs, and project-level delays. Management remained cautious and elected not to raise the full-year outlook despite positive realized and valuation gains, reflecting prudent risk management and acknowledgement of possible downside in Q4 and beyond.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Cumulative Net Income
Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, up JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year, the highest third-quarter cumulative net profit level and 89% progress toward the revised full-year forecast of JPY 440 billion.
Negative Updates
Exposure to China-Driven Inbound Tourism Decline
Since December, Chinese passenger numbers to Japan have declined materially (management cited ~40% YoY decline looking at September), with major Chinese carriers extending free cancellation windows—creating downward pressure on airport concession and Kansai-area real estate earnings and potential downside into the next fiscal year.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Cumulative Net Income
Net income for the 9-month period was JPY 389.7 billion, up JPY 117.9 billion year-over-year, the highest third-quarter cumulative net profit level and 89% progress toward the revised full-year forecast of JPY 440 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ORIX reiterated no change to its full‑year net income forecast of JPY 440.0 billion and said it will continue to pursue sustainable growth and improved capital efficiency while finalizing its FY plans; through the 9 months it reported net income of JPY 389.7 billion (up JPY 117.9 billion y/y), equal to ~89% of the revised FY forecast, and pretax profit of JPY 567.7 billion (up JPY 184.3 billion y/y). By category, 9‑month segment profits were Finance JPY 145.5 billion (+8%, ~81% progress vs FY plan), Operations JPY 189.5 billion (+17%, ~79% progress) and Investments JPY 261.4 billion (+100%), for total segment profit of JPY 596.4 billion (+40% y/y); capital recycling generated JPY 196.6 billion of gains with JPY 790 billion cash inflows from divestments and JPY 700 billion of new‑investment outflows. Shareholder returns were expanded (buyback increased from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 128.1 billion repurchased by end‑January, ~85% progress); balance‑sheet moves included total assets +JPY 1.2594 trillion (ex‑FX +JPY 800 billion), long‑/short‑term debt and deposits +JPY 363.4 billion, insurance contract liabilities −JPY 234.2 billion, shareholders’ equity +JPY 495.2 billion (equity ratio 25.3%), an employed‑capital ratio near 90% (model updated), and a target payout ratio around 39% (implied ~JPY 153/share on the JPY 440 billion forecast).Orix Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
77
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.13T | 3.53T | 2.87T | 2.81T | 2.66T | 2.51T |
| Gross Profit | 1.14T | 1.13T | 1.20T | 1.17T | 1.04T | 940.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.21T | 1.37T | 944.66B | 916.36B | 813.04B | 743.78B |
| Net Income | 469.53B | 475.04B | 351.63B | 346.13B | 290.34B | 317.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.13T | 18.08T | 16.87T | 16.32T | 15.29T | 14.27T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42T | 1.46T | 3.81T | 1.05T | 1.26T | 971.10B |
| Total Debt | 6.71T | 6.57T | 6.28T | 6.46T | 6.01T | 5.16T |
| Total Liabilities | 13.40T | 13.44T | 12.69T | 12.30T | 11.67T | 10.90T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.58T | 4.50T | 4.09T | 3.94T | 3.54T | 3.26T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.38T | 1.20T | 1.17T | 777.66B | 990.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.46T | 1.27T | 1.25T | 881.23B | 1.03T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.18T | -1.31T | -1.36T | -1.14T | -784.99B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -170.22B | 146.27B | -100.99B | 480.70B | -330.47B |
Orix Technical Analysis
Positive
27.02
Price Trends
31.97
Positive
31.99
Positive
29.07
Positive
Market Momentum
1.56
Negative
68.71
Neutral
70.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.09, below the 50-day MA of 31.97, and below the 200-day MA of 29.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IX.
Orix Risk Analysis
Orix disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Orix Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $9.86B | 19.31 | 15.91% | 0.99% | 14.39% | 27.91% | |
71 Outperform | $37.88B | 11.19 | 10.13% | 2.72% | 16.88% | 32.48% | |
70 Outperform | $23.90B | 7.23 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $6.18B | 6.91 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
62 Neutral | $2.64B | 10.62 | 47.95% | 10.18% | -2.34% | -49.33% | |
61 Neutral | $12.91B | 9.56 | 9.19% | 2.58% | -0.72% | 198.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
IX
Orix
37.22
16.66
81.03%
FCFS
FirstCash
225.86
101.36
81.41%
WU
Western Union
8.33
-0.36
-4.12%
ALLY
Ally Financial
40.85
7.91
24.01%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
69.39
13.09
23.25%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
52.90
6.82
14.81%
Orix Corporate Events
Orix to Sell ORIX Bank to Daiwa Next Bank in Strategic Shift Toward Asset Management
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, ORIX Corporation said it will transfer all shares of its consolidated subsidiary ORIX Bank Corporation to Daiwa Next Bank, part of Daiwa Securities Group, shifting ownership from ORIX to Daiwa Next Bank. The move aligns ORIXR...
ORIX Exits U.S. Network Connex Holding via Sale of IX NTI to Olympus Partners
Apr 14, 2026
On April 13, 2026 U.S. time, an ORIX affiliate agreed to transfer all of its equity interest in IX NTI Holdings, LLC, the holding company for U.S. network deployment specialist Network Connex, to an Olympus Partners–affiliated special purpos...
ORIX to Absorb Tsukuba Lease Business in Group Reorganization
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, ORIX Corporation announced it will implement a simplified absorption-type company split in which ORIX and its subsidiary ORIX Auto will succeed the leasing business of consolidated unit Tsukuba Lease Corporation. Following the s...
ORIX Overhauls Top Management and Infrastructure Unit in April 2026 Reorganization
Mar 27, 2026
ORIX Corporation announced on March 27, 2026, that it will implement a series of senior management changes effective April 1, 2026, aimed at sharpening operational roles across its global franchise. President and CEO Hidetake Takahashi will relinq...
ORIX Exits Peak Utility Platform With Sale of IX PUSG Holdings to Greenbelt-Affiliated SPC
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, ORIX Corporation reported that an affiliate signed an agreement on March 10, 2026, U.S. time, to transfer 100% of the equity in IX PUSG Holdings, LLC, the holding company for Peak Utility Services Group, Inc., to Seahawk Buyer, ...
ORIX Sells SGK Holdings to Carlyle-Backed SPC as Part of Capital Recycling Push
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, ORIX announced it will transfer all shares of its consolidated subsidiary SGK Holdings Corporation to a special purpose company backed by The Carlyle Group, exiting its 2020 investment in SUGIKO GROUP HOLDINGS, a major renter of ...
ORIX Completes ¥150 Billion Share Buyback and Moves to Cancel 38.9 Million Shares
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, ORIX Corporation reported it had completed a share repurchase program authorized by its board in May and November 2025, buying back 38,206,600 common shares for roughly ¥150 billion through market purchases up to February 27...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.