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NYSE:IX

Orix (IX) AI Stock Analysis

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IX

Orix

(NYSE:IX)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
Orix's overall score reflects strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability, despite some operational challenges and a leveraged balance sheet. The technical analysis indicates potential bearish momentum, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be undervalued. The positive earnings call highlights strategic initiatives and growth, yet acknowledges segment-specific challenges.

Orix (IX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Orix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionORIX Corporation provides diversified financial services in Japan, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses; and provision of life insurance and environment and energy-related products and services. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; manages residential condominiums and office building; and provides construction contracting, real estate brokerage, and real estate investment advisory services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity (PE) investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides renewable energy; ESCO; retails electric power; sells solar panels and battery electricity storage systems; and recycling and waste management services. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft leasing and management, and ship-related finance and investment businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides equity and fixed income asset management services. Its Asia and Australia segment offers finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrix Corporation generates revenue through its diverse portfolio of businesses. Its primary revenue streams include leasing and loan services, where it provides capital to businesses and individuals in exchange for interest and leasing fees. The company also earns income from its real estate segment through property development, management, and investment activities. Additionally, Orix generates profits from its banking and insurance operations, which include interest income from loans, premiums from insurance policies, and asset management fees. The company's strategic partnerships and investments across various sectors further contribute to its earnings, allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in different markets and regions.

Orix Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with ORIX achieving record net income and planning increased dividends and buybacks, but facing challenges such as missing the income forecast due to an uncompleted asset sale and significant impairments. The strategic focus on capital recycling and potential new business opportunities highlights a forward-looking approach amidst global uncertainties.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Income
ORIX achieved a record net income of JPY 351.6 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, despite significant impairments and missing the initial forecast of JPY 390 billion.
Increased Dividends and Share Buybacks
The full year dividend per share was JPY 120.01, with a plan to increase it to JPY 132 for FY '26. The scale of share buybacks was doubled to JPY 100 billion.
Strong Performance in Investment Category
Segment profits in the investment category saw a significant increase of JPY 56.2 billion compared to the previous year.
Expansion Plans for Kansai Airports
Major renovation of Terminal 1 at Kansai International Airport was completed, expanding international passenger intake capacity by 1.7x, preparing for increased traffic due to the Osaka Expo.
Negative Updates
Missed Forecast Due to Greenko Sale
Unable to achieve the sale of Greenko, which was expected to contribute to the full year forecast net income of JPY 390 billion.
Significant Impairments
Recorded total impairments of JPY 53.1 billion on a pretax basis for some assets and investments due to conservative forecasts amidst global economic uncertainties.
Decline in Operation Category Profit
Profit in the operation category declined year-over-year, mainly due to a conservative revision of plans for coal and biomass coal-fired power plants, resulting in an impairment of approximately JPY 20 billion.
Company Guidance
In the recent ORIX Corporation earnings call for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, several key financial metrics and strategic highlights were discussed. The company reported a consolidated net income of JPY 351.6 billion, which was a 2% increase from the previous year but fell short of the JPY 390 billion forecast. The full year ROE stood at 8.8%, amidst significant market uncertainty. Despite recording total impairments of JPY 53.1 billion due to global supply chain disruptions and resource price fluctuations, ORIX achieved a record-high profit. The company's pretax profit was JPY 480.5 billion, with segment profits totaling JPY 544.7 billion. Finance category profits reached JPY 176.3 billion, driven by strong investment income from ORIX Life Insurance and the U.S. private credit businesses. The operations category reported JPY 200.2 billion in profits, despite a JPY 20 billion impairment related to coal-fired power plants. Investment category profits surged to JPY 168.2 billion, aided by significant gains in domestic PE and real estate segments. Looking forward, ORIX forecasted a JPY 380 billion net income for the next fiscal year, projecting a third consecutive record year, while planning to increase their dividend to JPY 132 per share and doubling share buybacks to JPY 100 billion to enhance ROE and shareholder return ratios.

Orix Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Orix shows strong revenue growth and robust profitability, with a significant increase in net income despite operational inefficiencies reflected in negative EBIT. The balance sheet is leveraged but stable, and cash flow management is improving, though it remains volatile.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Orix has demonstrated solid revenue growth over the years with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating strong top-line growth. However, there is a notable fluctuation in EBIT and EBITDA margins, with EBIT turning negative in 2024, which could indicate operational inefficiencies or increased costs. Net profit margins remain robust, supported by a substantial increase in net income in 2024 compared to 2023.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet shows a high level of debt relative to equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio that suggests a leveraged position, typical in the financial services industry. Equity has been increasing, demonstrating shareholder value creation. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, pointing to a balanced but slightly risk-averse approach to financing.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals fluctuating free cash flow with a significant positive change from negative in 2023 to positive in 2024. Operating cash flow covers net income well, but the volatility in free cash flow suggests potential challenges in managing capital expenditures and financing activities.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.34T2.81T1.63T1.58T1.42T1.33T
Gross Profit
697.55B1.17T-14.62B-348.00M-43.45B-73.36B
EBIT
376.67B360.71B360.57B292.88B258.81B269.68B
EBITDA
592.29B834.22B732.43B829.75B599.09B712.74B
Net Income Common Stockholders
369.90B346.13B290.34B317.38B192.38B302.70B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
992.75B1.05T3.47T3.13T2.96T2.61T
Total Assets
16.50T16.32T15.27T14.27T13.56T13.07T
Total Debt
6.39T6.20T5.72T4.87T4.72T4.62T
Net Debt
5.39T5.17T4.49T3.91T3.77T3.63T
Total Liabilities
12.34T12.30T11.84T10.90T10.46T10.00T
Stockholders Equity
4.07T3.94T3.36T3.26T3.03T2.99T
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
681.09B42.53B-166.99B186.07B341.72B49.55B
Operating Cash Flow
1.06T1.24T913.09B1.10T1.10T1.04T
Investing Cash Flow
-949.32B-1.37T-1.10T-808.85B-1.21T-1.47T
Financing Cash Flow
14.18B-85.48B438.31B-306.62B39.88B288.70B

Orix Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price21.63
Price Trends
50DMA
20.30
Positive
100DMA
20.65
Positive
200DMA
21.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.36
Negative
RSI
62.46
Neutral
STOCH
83.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.14, above the 50-day MA of 20.30, and above the 200-day MA of 21.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IX.

Orix Risk Analysis

Orix disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Orix Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DFDFS
78
Outperform
$50.34B10.6928.29%1.40%9.42%128.55%
SYSYF
71
Outperform
$22.78B8.2118.60%2.00%1.22%4.96%
IXIX
69
Neutral
$23.26B10.728.65%3.22%0.31%34.40%
OMOMF
68
Neutral
$6.17B10.9817.46%8.02%9.07%
WUWU
66
Neutral
$2.85B3.20136.84%10.89%-5.16%59.60%
64
Neutral
$12.77B9.717.85%78.05%12.07%-7.97%
63
Neutral
$11.06B26.473.84%3.33%-2.99%-43.64%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IX
Orix
21.63
0.44
2.08%
DFS
Discover Financial Services
200.05
75.94
61.19%
WU
Western Union
8.63
-2.80
-24.50%
ALLY
Ally Financial
36.02
-2.83
-7.28%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
59.84
17.57
41.57%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
51.87
7.61
17.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.