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Orix (IX) AI Stock Analysis

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IX

Orix

(NYSE:IX)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
â–²(10.60% Upside)
Orix's overall stock score is driven by a positive earnings call sentiment and attractive valuation, despite technical indicators suggesting an overbought condition. Financial performance shows strong revenue growth but is offset by high leverage and negative free cash flow, necessitating careful financial management.

Orix (IX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Orix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrix Corporation is a diversified financial services company based in Japan, operating across various sectors including leasing, real estate, investment, and finance. Established in 1964, Orix has expanded its operations globally, providing a range of services such as equipment leasing, corporate finance, and asset management. The company is also involved in renewable energy generation and infrastructure investment, making it a key player in both traditional and emerging markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrix generates revenue through multiple streams primarily rooted in its leasing and financial services. The company earns income from leasing activities, which involve providing equipment and machinery to businesses on a rental basis. Corporate finance services, including loans and credit facilities, also contribute significantly to its revenue. Additionally, Orix invests in real estate and infrastructure projects, generating returns through property management and development activities. The company has established partnerships with various stakeholders, including government entities and private firms, which enhance its investment opportunities and revenue potential. Furthermore, Orix's commitment to renewable energy investments has opened up new revenue avenues as global demand for sustainable solutions continues to rise.

Orix Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant increases in net income, pretax profit, and AUM. Key investments and shareholder returns through buybacks were highlighted as strengths. However, challenges in the US business and specific segment declines were acknowledged. The sentiment leans positive due to the outweighing highlights.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Income and ROE Increase
Net income for the first quarter was JPY 107.3 billion, an increase of JPY 20.6 billion year-on-year with an annualized ROE of 10.4%.
Pretax Profit Growth
Pretax profit was JPY 455.5 billion, an increase of JPY 35.3 billion from last year, with all three categories (finance, operation, and investments) seeing profit increases year-on-year.
Shareholder Returns through Buybacks
Completed the acquisition of JPY 40.9 billion out of the total JPY 100 billion share buyback program announced in May.
Investment in Hilco Global
Agreed to acquire a 71.4% stake in Hilco Global, a world-leading company in asset valuation.
Robust AUM Growth
AUM increased to JPY 81 trillion from JPY 74 trillion in March 2025, showing strong inflows and market-related gains.
Negative Updates
US Business Challenges
Impairment in an equity method affiliate due to tariff impacts and conservative asset management in response to high interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Aircraft and Ship Segment Decline
Segment profit decreased by JPY 1.9 billion, a 16% decline to reach JPY 9.9 billion.
ORIX USA Profit Decrease
Segment profit decreased by JPY 11.2 billion year-over-year, partly due to the absence of reversal of credit costs and lower real estate profits.
Company Guidance
During the ORIX Corporation earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, several key financial metrics and strategic insights were provided. Net income for the quarter reached JPY 107.3 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of JPY 20.6 billion, with an annualized ROE of 10.4%. Pretax profit also saw a significant rise, totaling JPY 455.5 billion, up JPY 35.3 billion from the previous year. The company's capital recycling initiatives yielded capital gains of JPY 45.1 billion, with notable contributions from the sale of Hotel Universal Port Vita and valuation gains on remaining stakes in renewable energy company Ormat. Additionally, ORIX completed JPY 40.9 billion of a JPY 100 billion share buyback program, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. The company is reviewing its full-year net income target due to macroeconomic uncertainties, despite strong earnings expectations in the first half driven by gains from asset sales including Greenko.

Orix Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Orix shows strong revenue growth and stable profitability, but faces challenges with high leverage and negative free cash flow. The income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory, while the balance sheet indicates potential risks due to high debt levels. Cash flow issues, particularly negative free cash flow, highlight the need for careful financial management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Orix has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 22.64% increase in the latest year, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 41.76%, and the net profit margin is solid at 12.23%. However, the EBIT margin has decreased to 18.34% from 19.62% the previous year, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a strong growth trajectory with stable profitability.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.54, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity is currently at 0%, reflecting a need for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 24.25%, showing a moderate level of equity financing. While the balance sheet shows stability, the high leverage warrants caution.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Orix's cash flow statement reveals challenges with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -108.44%, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39, suggesting that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity concerns. While operating cash flow remains positive, the negative free cash flow trend is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.87T2.87T2.81T1.63T1.58T1.42T
Gross Profit1.20T1.20T1.17T-14.62B-348.00M-43.45B
EBITDA807.51B926.89B834.22B732.43B829.75B599.09B
Net Income351.63B351.63B346.13B290.34B317.38B192.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.87T16.87T16.32T15.27T14.27T13.56T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.81T3.81T1.05T3.47T3.13T2.96T
Total Debt6.28T6.28T6.20T5.72T4.87T4.72T
Total Liabilities12.69T12.69T12.30T11.84T10.90T10.46T
Stockholders Equity4.09T4.09T3.94T3.36T3.26T3.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-57.48B42.53B-166.99B186.07B341.72B
Operating Cash Flow0.001.30T1.24T913.09B1.10T1.10T
Investing Cash Flow0.00-1.31T-1.37T-1.10T-808.85B-1.21T
Financing Cash Flow0.00149.32B-85.48B438.31B-306.62B39.88B

Orix Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price26.22
Price Trends
50DMA
23.99
Positive
100DMA
22.31
Positive
200DMA
21.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.64
Positive
RSI
66.98
Neutral
STOCH
71.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.82, above the 50-day MA of 23.99, and above the 200-day MA of 21.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IX.

Orix Risk Analysis

Orix disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Orix Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$28.60B9.1720.23%1.46%-3.16%14.60%
77
Outperform
$6.69B23.0214.17%1.03%2.49%24.41%
76
Outperform
$7.44B11.3220.47%6.76%9.41%13.98%
72
Outperform
$2.82B3.29135.32%10.63%-3.83%62.05%
72
Outperform
$28.00B11.869.23%3.11%2.89%2.13%
68
Neutral
$18.06B11.9710.24%3.74%9.75%1.30%
52
Neutral
$12.80B27.004.18%2.90%-5.33%-32.99%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IX
Orix
26.22
2.93
12.58%
FCFS
FirstCash
147.13
29.90
25.51%
WU
Western Union
8.84
-2.24
-20.22%
ALLY
Ally Financial
41.36
3.10
8.10%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
75.61
29.05
62.39%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
61.50
20.38
49.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025