Illinois Tool Works (ITW) AI Stock Analysis

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Illinois Tool Works

(NYSE:ITW)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$333.00

▲(12.89% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability/cash generation and supportive 2026 guidance for margin expansion and EPS growth. Offsetting factors are elevated leverage, a technically overextended setup (high RSI/Stoch despite a strong uptrend), and a relatively rich P/E multiple with only moderate dividend support.

Positive Factors

Margin Strength

ITW delivered record company-level operating margins (~26.5%) driven by enterprise initiatives that contributed ~140 bps in Q4 and guidance calling for ~100 bps of structural margin expansion. Durable margin improvement indicates sustained operating leverage and productivity gains that can underpin earnings even with modest top-line growth.

Cash Generation & Capital Returns

Free cash flow conversion above 100% and large 2025 shareholder returns (repurchases and dividend increase) show strong cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation. Reliable FCF supports buybacks, dividend growth, and reinvestment in high-return projects, enhancing long-term shareholder value and strategic optionality.

Diversified Innovation Model

Customer-Backed Innovation (CBI) added meaningful revenue (2.4%) and patent filings increased, reflecting sustained R&D productivity. Combined with a decentralized, seven-segment structure, this fosters resilient, above-market organic growth avenues and reduces dependence on any single end market over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Leverage at roughly 2.2x–2.8x constrains financial flexibility and heightens interest-rate and cyclical risks. High debt amplifies downside in a recession, limits bolt-on M&A capacity unless accretive, and means returns are partly driven by financial leverage rather than solely operational gains, increasing downside sensitivity.

Modest Top-Line Momentum

Revenue growth has been modest and uneven, and 2026 guidance targets only 1%–3% organic growth. With top-line momentum limited, ITW's EPS expansion relies heavily on margin initiatives, productivity and buybacks, which can cap longer-term growth upside and make results more sensitive to demand slowdowns.

End-Market Cyclicality & Regional Weakness

Concrete end-market weak spots (construction/residential down) and regional softness (Europe down) plus semiconductor cyclicality create persistent demand volatility. Exposure to cyclical industries and geographies reduces predictability of revenue and can pressure margins when enterprise initiatives or cost actions cannot fully offset downturns.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$85.35B

Dividend Yield2.43%

Average Volume (3M)1.44M

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.2

Beta (1Y)0.69

Revenue Growth-0.41%

EPS Growth-10.88%

CountryUS

Employees44,000

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryIndustrial - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.72

Shares Outstanding288,200,000

10 Day Avg. Volume1,292,089

30 Day Avg. Volume1,442,716

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-2.24

Price to Book (P/B)22.32

Price to Sales (P/S)4.49

P/FCF Ratio26.59

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.80

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.20

Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.02

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$279.38

Price Target Upside-5.29% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering9

EPS Forecast (FY)11.23

Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.56B

Illinois Tool Works Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIllinois Tool Works Inc. manufactures and sells industrial products and equipment worldwide. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light trucks, and other industrial uses. The Food Equipment segment provides warewashing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing equipment; kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems; and food equipment maintenance and repair services. The Test & Measurement and Electronics segment produces and sells equipment, consumables, and related software for testing and measuring of materials and structures, as well as equipment and consumables used in the production of electronic subassemblies and microelectronics. The Welding segment produces arc welding equipment; and metal arc welding consumables and related accessories. The Polymers & Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance. The Construction Products segment offers engineered fastening systems and solutions for the residential construction, renovation/remodel, and commercial construction markets. The Specialty Products segment offers beverage packaging equipment and consumables, product coding and marking equipment and consumables, and appliance components and fasteners. It serves the automotive OEM/tiers, commercial food equipment, construction, general industrial, and automotive aftermarket end markets. The company distributes its products directly to industrial manufacturers, as well as through independent distributors. Illinois Tool Works Inc. was founded in 1912 and is based in Glenview, Illinois.

How the Company Makes MoneyITW generates revenue through a combination of product sales, services, and solutions tailored to meet the needs of various industries. The company operates under a decentralized business model, allowing its subsidiaries to adapt quickly to market demands and customer preferences. Key revenue streams include sales of engineered fasteners and components, food processing equipment, and welding products. ITW also benefits from long-standing partnerships with major manufacturers across different sectors, contributing to stable demand for its products. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to create innovative products, enhancing its competitive edge and driving revenue growth.

Illinois Tool Works Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business segment contributes to total sales, indicating diversification and potential growth areas within the company.

Chart InsightsIllinois Tool Works is navigating a challenging demand environment with notable success in its Automotive OEM and Welding segments, which are driving revenue growth. The Automotive OEM segment is benefiting from market share gains in the EV market, particularly in China. However, the Construction Products and Polymers & Fluids segments are facing headwinds, with revenue declines impacting overall performance. Despite these challenges, ITW's strategic initiatives and operational efficiency have led to improved margins and continued shareholder returns through dividend increases and share repurchases.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Illinois Tool Works Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed a fundamentally positive tone: management reported solid Q4 results with revenue growth, record margins, strong cash generation, meaningful progress on strategic innovation (CBI), and constructive 2026 guidance (moderate organic growth, EPS growth, margin expansion). Challenges were acknowledged — regional softness in Europe, construction/residential weakness, cyclical exposure in semiconductors, some inflationary and employee-cost offsets, and a selective M&A backdrop — but these were framed as manageable. On balance, the operational execution, margin expansion from enterprise initiatives, and CBI momentum outweigh the cited headwinds.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Quarterly Revenue and EPS Beat

Q4 total revenue growth of 4.1% (organic +1.3%, FX +2.5%, acquisitions +0.3%) with GAAP EPS of $2.72, up 7% year-over-year.

Strong Sequential Improvement

Revenue improved sequentially by ~4% from Q3 to Q4, materially above the historical sequential average of ~2%, indicating improving demand momentum heading into 2026.

Record Margins and Operating Income

Record Q4 operating margin (company-level ~26.5%; segment operating margin 27.7%) with operating income of $1.1 billion, up 5%. Enterprise initiatives contributed ~140 bps to margins in Q4.

Full-Year Strategic Progress on CBI

CBI (customer-backed innovation) contributed 2.4% to revenue in 2025, a 40 bps year-over-year improvement. Patent filings — a leading indicator of CBI — rose 9% in 2025 (after +18% in 2024).

Cash Generation and Capital Return

Q4 free cash flow conversion to net income was 109% for the quarter. ITW repurchased $375 million of shares in Q4, returned $3.3 billion to shareholders in 2025, raised the dividend for the 62nd consecutive year, and plans ~$1.5 billion of buybacks for 2026.

2026 Financial Guidance and Profitability Targets

Guidance: total revenue +2% to +4%, organic growth +1% to +3%, GAAP EPS $11.00–$11.20 (midpoint +7%), operating margin expansion of ~100 bps to 26.5%–27.5%, enterprise initiatives expected to contribute ~100 bps, and incremental margins forecasted in the mid-to-high 40s.

Targeted Investments Supporting Growth

Invested roughly $800 million in high-return internal projects in 2025 to accelerate organic growth and productivity; management expects continued investment while expanding margins.

Segment-Level Outperformance and Margin Expansion

All seven segments expanded margins in Q4 and are projecting margin improvements for 2026. Notable segment results: Automotive OEM revenue +6% (organic +2%), Welding operating margin 33.3% (+210 bps), Polymers & Fluids organic growth ~5% and margin expanded to ~29% (+110 bps), Food Equipment revenue +4% and margin 28.1% (+110 bps).

Negative Updates

Regional Weakness in Europe

Europe declined ~2% in Q4 and several segments reported Europe down (e.g., Construction Products -5% international, Food Equipment international +2% but Europe softness noted), indicating ongoing European demand softness.

Construction Products Top-Line Pressure

Construction Products reported organic revenue down 4% in Q4 (North America -4%, residential renovation -5%) despite a 100 bps margin expansion, reflecting continued weakness in residential end markets.

Some End-Market Cyclicality and Uncertainty (Semiconductor)

Semiconductor-related businesses showed a mid-single-digit recovery in Q4, but management acknowledged prior 'head fakes' and that semi remains cyclical; semi is ~15% of test & measurement and ~3% of company sales, so recovery is positive but uncertain.

Inflationary and Cost Pressures Offset Margin Gains

Management flagged employee-related costs (wages, health & welfare) and selective investments that partially offset margin expansion from enterprise initiatives and operating leverage in 2026 guidance.

Selective M&A Environment and Valuation Constraints

M&A is opportunistic but valuations are challenging; management emphasized discipline and that acquisitions must meet return thresholds, which may limit inorganic growth pace in 2026.

Lower PLS Contribution Expected in 2026

Product Life Simplification (PLS) is forecasted at a lower maintenance-level contribution (~30–50 bps in 2026), down from higher levels in 2025, reducing one source of margin tailwind.

Segment-Specific Consumables Weakness

Some consumables categories were weak in the quarter—e.g., welding consumables flat overall with filler metals up but other consumables down; specialty products consumables down 2%—showing mixed demand across consumable portfolios.

Company Guidance

Illinois Tool Works guided 2026 to total revenue growth of 2%–4% and organic growth of 1%–3% (based on current demand and seasonality), with operating margin expanding about 100 basis points to 26.5%–27.5% (including ~100 bps from enterprise initiatives), GAAP EPS of $11.00–$11.20 (midpoint $11.20, ~7% growth), and high‑quality incremental margins in the mid‑to‑high‑40s; management expects a 47/53 H1/H2 EPS split (Q1 ≈23% of full‑year EPS), free cash flow conversion to net income >100%, ~ $1.5B of share buybacks, all seven segments to outgrow end markets and improve margins, and continued CBI momentum (2.4% contribution in 2025) on the path to 3%+ by 2030.

Illinois Tool Works Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and solid cash generation support a high-quality earnings profile, but balance-sheet leverage is a notable risk (elevated debt-to-equity) and recent revenue growth has been modest/uneven.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently high gross and operating margins across the period and solid net margins (about 19% in 2025 vs. ~17% in 2020). Revenue growth has been modest and uneven—strong rebound in 2021–2022, followed by a slight decline in 2024 and a low-growth 2025—while net margin also stepped down in 2025 versus 2024. Overall, earnings power looks durable, but top-line momentum is not a major driver recently.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Leverage is the key concern: debt-to-equity remains elevated (roughly 2.2x–2.8x over the period) and has moved higher again in 2025 versus 2024. Equity is relatively modest compared with the debt load, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility in a downturn. A positive offset is very strong returns on equity across years, indicating efficient capital use, but that strength is partly amplified by high leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is generally strong, with free cash flow closely tracking or exceeding accounting earnings in most years (free cash flow to net income ~0.82–1.00). Operating cash flow coverage of earnings is decent but not consistently high (ranging from ~0.53 to ~1.08), indicating some year-to-year working-capital or conversion volatility. The latest year shows a sharp rebound in free cash flow growth versus 2024, supporting the overall cash profile.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.04B	15.90B	16.11B	15.93B	14.46B
Gross Profit	7.08B	6.94B	6.68B	6.37B	5.83B
EBITDA	4.65B	5.11B	4.48B	4.46B	3.94B
Net Income	3.07B	3.49B	2.96B	3.03B	2.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.15B	15.07B	15.52B	15.42B	16.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	851.00M	948.00M	1.06B	708.00M	1.53B
Total Debt	8.97B	8.08B	8.37B	7.95B	7.88B
Total Liabilities	12.92B	11.75B	12.51B	12.33B	12.45B
Stockholders Equity	3.23B	3.32B	3.01B	3.09B	3.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.71B	2.84B	3.08B	1.94B	2.26B
Operating Cash Flow	3.13B	3.28B	3.54B	2.35B	2.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-521.00M	-144.00M	-403.00M	-110.00M	-984.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.74B	-3.19B	-2.78B	-3.00B	-2.56B

Illinois Tool Works Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price294.98

Price Trends

50DMA

265.00

Positive

100DMA

256.80

Positive

200DMA

254.75

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

10.40

Negative

RSI

70.09

Negative

STOCH

46.17

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 294.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 281.78, above the 50-day MA of 265.00, and above the 200-day MA of 254.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ITW.

Illinois Tool Works Risk Analysis

Illinois Tool Works disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Illinois Tool Works reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Illinois Tool Works Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PH	80 Outperform	$125.90B	36.38	25.79%	0.79%	0.22%	26.66%
ETN	79 Outperform	$147.74B	36.40	21.57%	1.29%	8.24%	6.21%
ITW	72 Outperform	$85.35B	28.23	93.75%	2.43%	-0.41%	-10.88%
ROP	70 Outperform	$35.26B	23.07	7.93%	0.73%	13.95%	6.80%
EMR	69 Neutral	$84.99B	36.91	11.31%	1.58%	2.97%	18.14%
ROK	68 Neutral	$44.55B	45.36	27.71%	1.33%	0.98%	-7.51%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ITW

Illinois Tool Works

294.98

38.14

14.85%

ETN

Eaton

373.38

87.20

30.47%

EMR

Emerson Electric Company

148.62

29.92

25.20%

Parker Hannifin

1,022.23

369.19

56.53%

ROK

Rockwell Automation

398.79

108.52

37.38%

ROP

Roper Technologies

335.79

-237.00

-41.38%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 16, 2026