Itron Inc (ITRI)
NASDAQ:ITRI
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Itron
(NASDAQ:ITRI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$106.00
▲(17.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin/FCF improvement and reduced leverage). Offsetting that strength are weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and cautious near-term outlook from guidance (modest 2026 growth and EPS dilution from acquisitions), with valuation remaining reasonable at ~15x earnings.
Positive Factors
Margin and Cash Generation
Sustained margin expansion and strong free cash flow improve the company’s ability to fund R&D, sustain higher incremental profitability, and support capital allocation choices (debt paydown, buybacks, M&A). These cash and margin dynamics create durable earnings resilience even if revenue growth is uneven.
Negative Factors
Top-line Weakness and Modest Guidance
Near-flat full-year revenue guidance and an indicated Q1 decline point to constrained top-line momentum. If revenue remains muted, continued margin reliance and acquisition-driven growth assumptions must deliver, increasing execution risk and making organic growth recovery a multi-quarter challenge.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin and Cash Generation
Sustained margin expansion and strong free cash flow improve the company’s ability to fund R&D, sustain higher incremental profitability, and support capital allocation choices (debt paydown, buybacks, M&A). These cash and margin dynamics create durable earnings resilience even if revenue growth is uneven.
Read all positive factors
Itron (ITRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth0.14%
EPS Growth14.12%
CountryUS
Employees5,040
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryHardware, Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.46
Shares Outstanding44,941,208
10 Day Avg. Volume1,113,252
30 Day Avg. Volume1,235,073
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.54
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.77
P/FCF Ratio11.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.50Price Target Upside50.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)6.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Itron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Itron, Inc., a technology and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage operations in the energy, water, and smart city space worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Itron generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of hardware, software, and services related to utility metering and management. Key revenue streams include the sale of smart meters and related devices, software licenses f...
Itron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial trajectory: record margins, EBITDA, EPS and strong free cash flow, meaningful ARR growth (20% YoY), robust backlog and pipeline expansion, and strategic acquisitions that expand TAM and are expected to be accretive by 2027. Near-term headwinds include Q4 and full-year revenue declines vs. 2024, weaker Device and Network revenues due to timing/legacy declines, short-term EPS dilution and cash use related to acquisitions, and continued lumpy booking/project timing. Overall the business is being positioned for durable, higher-margin recurring revenue growth even as the company navigates short-term execution and integration impacts.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Q4 revenue of $572,000,000; adjusted EBITDA of $99,000,000 (17% of revenue); non-GAAP EPS of $2.46 (quarterly record); free cash flow of $112,000,000. GAAP net income $102,000,000 ($2.21) vs prior year $58,000,000.
Negative Updates
Revenue Pressure and Year-over-Year Declines
Q4 revenue was lower than the prior year and full-year 2025 revenue was $2,370,000,000, down 3% year-over-year (2024 included catch-up revenue). Q1 2026 guidance implies ~6% revenue decline vs prior-year quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Q4 revenue of $572,000,000; adjusted EBITDA of $99,000,000 (17% of revenue); non-GAAP EPS of $2.46 (quarterly record); free cash flow of $112,000,000. GAAP net income $102,000,000 ($2.21) vs prior year $58,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Itron guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $2,350,000,000 to $2,450,000,000 (midpoint ~+1% vs. 2025) and non‑GAAP EPS of $5.75 to $6.25, assuming a 22% effective tax rate (normalized midpoint implies roughly a $0.32 YoY EPS decline driven by recent acquisitions). The company said its new Resiliency Solutions businesses are expected to contribute about $65,000,000–$70,000,000 of 2026 revenue with ~70% gross margins, but the two acquisitions (totaling ~$850,000,000) will be dilutive to 2026 EPS by ~ $0.38 and are expected to be accretive in 2027. For Q1 2026 Itron guided revenue of $565,000,000–$575,000,000 (down ~6% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS of $1.20–$1.30 (midpoint down ~ $0.27 YoY), noting lower interest income reduces Q1 EPS by ~ $0.13. The company also reported year‑end 2025 ARR of $368,000,000 and expects ARR growth in 2026 in the mid‑teens up to ~20% YoY.Itron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.37B | 2.44B | 2.17B | 1.80B | 1.98B |
| Gross Profit | 887.51M | 839.32M | 713.91M | 522.19M | 573.17M |
| EBITDA | 382.88M | 321.43M | 226.91M | 84.61M | 121.03M |
| Net Income | 301.06M | 239.10M | 96.92M | -9.73M | -81.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.72B | 3.41B | 2.60B | 2.38B | 2.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.05B | 302.05M | 202.01M | 162.58M |
| Total Debt | 1.29B | 1.28B | 502.46M | 515.10M | 507.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.98B | 2.00B | 1.27B | 1.19B | 1.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.72B | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.17B | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 380.85M | 207.61M | 98.09M | 4.75M | 110.36M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 403.74M | 238.18M | 124.97M | 24.50M | 145.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -349.65M | -63.41M | -23.31M | 40.52M | -34.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -95.25M | 579.57M | -3.51M | -18.74M | -152.89M |
Itron Technical Analysis
Negative
89.98
Price Trends
94.90
Negative
96.12
Negative
111.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.50
Negative
46.90
Neutral
56.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 89.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.61, below the 50-day MA of 94.90, and below the 200-day MA of 111.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ITRI.
Itron Risk Analysis
Itron disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Itron reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Itron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $7.54B | 44.07 | 21.34% | 0.16% | 13.13% | 24.02% | |
71 Outperform | $4.43B | 38.15 | 20.71% | 0.82% | 12.11% | 16.45% | |
69 Neutral | $4.04B | 13.96 | 18.49% | ― | 0.14% | 14.12% | |
68 Neutral | $5.10B | 155.81 | 1.11% | 1.43% | -8.07% | 63.50% | |
66 Neutral | $7.20B | 42.40 | 9.86% | ― | 7.40% | 13.79% | |
65 Neutral | $5.00B | 13.43 | 34.02% | 0.26% | 1.76% | 4.10% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
ITRI
Itron
89.98
-9.55
-9.60%
BMI
Badger Meter
151.93
-31.19
-17.03%
ESE
Esco Technologies
291.33
139.64
92.05%
SANM
Sanmina-Sci
131.82
54.03
69.46%
ST
Sensata
34.99
14.43
70.15%
VNT
Vontier
35.34
4.20
13.49%
Itron Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Itron Raises Capital Through New 2032 Convertible Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 23–26, 2026, Itron entered into a private Rule 144A offering and related agreements to issue $805 million of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032, including full exercise of an additional $105 million option. The notes, which ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.