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Itron Inc (ITRI)
NASDAQ:ITRI
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Itron (ITRI) AI Stock Analysis

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ITRI

Itron

(NASDAQ:ITRI)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$142.00
▲(12.45% Upside)
Itron's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic achievements, tempered by mixed technical signals and a lowered revenue outlook. The company's effective cash management and improved profitability are significant strengths, while macroeconomic challenges and valuation concerns present moderate risks.
Positive Factors
Earnings
The company reported strong Q2 earnings per share on in-line revenue, with product mix favorable and gross margin reaching a new quarterly record.
Financial Performance
Itron achieved a record high free cash flow and an improved net debt ratio, which could enable accelerated share repurchases or acquisitions.
Market Position
Itron Inc is expected to experience revenue growth and margin expansion due to its leadership in the distributed grid intelligence industry and a shift toward higher-value solutions.
Negative Factors
Backlog and Demand
2Q25 backlog declined quarter-over-quarter on 0.75x book-to-bill in 2Q25, leading to lowered 2025 revenue guidance.
Regulatory and Supply Chain Challenges
Macro uncertainty may slow demand and regulatory delays and supply chain constraints have limited the company’s ability to convert backlog to revenue in the past.
Revenue Outlook
Revenue outlook was lowered due to timing delays in backlog deliveries caused by trade/tariff uncertainty, inflation, and labor constraints.

Itron (ITRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Itron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionItron, Inc., a technology and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage operations in the energy, water, and smart city space worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes. The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing. The Networked Solutions segment provides a combination of communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; and associated application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. The Outcomes segment offers value-added, enhanced software and services for managing, organizing, analyzing, and interpreting data to enhance decision making, maximize operational profitability, drive resource efficiency, and deliver results for consumers, utilities, and smart cities. In addition, it offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand. The company markets its products directly through its sales force, as well as through indirect sales force consisting of distributors, sales representatives, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives to utilities and municipalities. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyItron generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of hardware, software, and services related to energy and water management. Their revenue model includes the sale of smart meters, communication modules, and software platforms that aid in data collection and analysis. Additionally, Itron earns recurring revenue through maintenance and support services, as well as through long-term contracts with utility companies for the provision of data management services. Strategic partnerships with various utility providers and technology firms enhance Itron's market reach and contribute to its earnings by expanding the deployment of its solutions across different regions and sectors.

Itron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance and strategic achievements, such as record-breaking profits and key partnerships, alongside challenges like a lowered revenue outlook and a complex regulatory environment. Despite the revenue forecast reduction, the significant increase in EPS guidance and operational efficiencies suggest a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
Itron set new quarterly records for margins, profitability, and cash flow with adjusted EBITDA of $90 million, non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.62, and free cash flow of $91 million.
Strong Performance of Grid Edge Intelligence Platform
The company shipped over 15.3 million distributed intelligence endpoints by the end of Q2, up from 14.4 million at the end of Q1, highlighting the ongoing adoption of DI-capable technology.
Improved Profitability
Non-GAAP operating income increased by 19% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% year-over-year, both setting new records.
Strategic Partnerships and Bookings
Key partnerships include a contract with Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator in Greece and a large-scale initiative in Tucson, Arizona. Second quarter bookings reached $454 million.
Increased Full Year EPS Outlook
Despite a lowered revenue forecast, Itron raised its full year EPS outlook midpoint by 13% due to growing customer demand for high-value solutions and operational efficiencies.
Negative Updates
Lowered Full Year Revenue Outlook
Itron lowered its full year revenue outlook midpoint by approximately 3% due to slower project deployments and delayed decisions amid a complex regulatory environment.
Decline in Device Solutions Revenue
Device Solutions revenue decreased by 8% on a constant currency basis due to a decline in legacy electric product sales, partially offset by growth in water.
Challenging Near-Term Market Environment
Customers and regulators are facing a more complex environment, leading to slower activity levels and more deliberate decision-making in response to economic uncertainty and evolving trade policies.
Company Guidance
During Itron's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported revenue of $607 million, adjusted EBITDA of $90 million, non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.62, and free cash flow of $91 million. The company set new quarterly records for margins, profitability, and cash flow, driven by its Outcomes segment and demand for its Grid Edge Intelligence platform, which saw shipments of over 15.3 million distributed intelligence endpoints. Despite facing macroeconomic challenges and regulatory complexities, Itron lowered its full-year revenue outlook midpoint by approximately 3% but raised its full-year EPS outlook midpoint by 13%. The call highlighted $454 million in second-quarter bookings, with significant contributions from European and U.S. clients, and reiterated a full-year book-to-bill ratio expectation of 1:1 or higher. Looking ahead, Itron anticipates third-quarter revenue between $570 million and $585 million, with non-GAAP EPS ranging from $1.45 to $1.55. The full-year 2025 revenue outlook was adjusted to a range of $2.35 billion to $2.4 billion, with an increased non-GAAP EPS range of $6 to $6.20, reflecting a strategic focus on margin improvements and operational efficiencies.

Itron Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Itron demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash management. The company shows a solid balance sheet with reduced leverage and strong cash flow, although maintaining reduced debt levels is crucial for future stability.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Itron shows a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is approximately 35.4%, indicating strong cost management. The Net Profit Margin is about 11.1%, showing significant improvement from previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect favorable operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2023 was strong, at 21.0%, indicating a positive growth trajectory.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting reduced leverage from 0.91 in 2023 to 0.38 in TTM, showcasing stronger financial health. Return on Equity (ROE) is robust at 16.7%, highlighting efficient equity utilization. The equity ratio stands at 44.5%, indicating a stable capital structure. While the company's debt levels have decreased, maintaining this trajectory will be crucial for future stability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow is strong and shows consistent growth. The Free Cash Flow growth rate is impressive, demonstrating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.16 suggests high-quality earnings. Moreover, the free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.16, indicating excellent cash conversion. Continued focus on cash flow management will be important for sustained growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.44B2.44B2.17B1.80B1.98B2.17B
Gross Profit864.32M839.32M713.91M522.19M573.17M602.17M
EBITDA370.94M356.19M191.50M57.74M7.07M96.09M
Net Income269.88M239.10M96.92M-9.55M-78.30M-56.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.62B3.41B2.60B2.38B2.39B2.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.22B1.05B302.05M202.01M162.58M206.93M
Total Debt1.27B1.27B502.46M515.10M507.54M987.76M
Total Liabilities1.99B2.00B1.27B1.19B1.25B1.77B
Stockholders Equity1.61B1.39B1.31B1.17B1.12B816.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow313.88M207.61M98.09M4.75M120.11M63.31M
Operating Cash Flow313.95M238.18M124.97M24.50M154.79M109.51M
Investing Cash Flow-26.24M-63.41M-23.31M40.52M-34.88M-41.04M
Financing Cash Flow7.49M579.57M-3.51M-18.74M-152.89M-11.58M

Itron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price126.28
Price Trends
50DMA
129.83
Negative
100DMA
118.90
Positive
200DMA
113.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.54
Positive
RSI
45.07
Neutral
STOCH
66.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITRI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 126.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.56, below the 50-day MA of 129.83, and above the 200-day MA of 113.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ITRI.

Itron Risk Analysis

Itron disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Itron reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Itron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$6.21B52.244.74%1.12%1.34%-38.02%
75
Outperform
$6.73B25.4711.12%0.88%4.47%2887.37%
74
Outperform
$6.18B16.0435.63%0.24%1.16%0.98%
71
Outperform
$5.77B21.5718.92%3.90%44.95%
71
Outperform
$7.17B59.768.10%0.75%10.14%57.53%
61
Neutral
$4.14B67.708.16%6.34%-1.57%
61
Neutral
€6.61B18.523.81%2.08%2.15%-33.06%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ITRI
Itron
126.28
27.76
28.18%
CGNX
Cognex
42.70
3.47
8.85%
NOVT
Novanta
114.97
-66.19
-36.54%
LFUS
Littelfuse
250.64
-9.26
-3.56%
MKSI
MKS
100.22
-19.14
-16.04%
VNT
Vontier
42.11
7.54
21.81%

Itron Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Itron Appoints Sheri Savage to Board of Directors
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Itron, Inc. appointed Sheri Savage, a seasoned finance executive with over 30 years of experience, to its Board of Directors. Savage, who has held significant roles at Ultra Clean Holdings, including CFO, is expected to bring strategic financial leadership to Itron, enhancing its business strategy and optimizing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ITRI) stock is a Hold with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Itron stock, see the ITRI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 15, 2025