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Itron Inc (ITRI)
NASDAQ:ITRI

Itron (ITRI) AI Stock Analysis

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Itron

(NASDAQ:ITRI)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$149.00
▲(9.81%Upside)
Itron's overall stock score of 74 is supported by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The bullish technical indicators contribute positively, though the overbought signals and relatively high valuation warrant caution. The absence of dividend yield limits its attractiveness for income investors.
Positive Factors
Competitive Position
Itron has a 2+ year lead with shrinking competition in grid edge solutions.
Financial Performance
Itron posted solid results, with better than expected profitability.
Industry Position
The transition from billing centric solutions to a holistic networking and grid edge market has shifted the industry to a 2 player market for networking and software, with Itron having a significant lead.
Negative Factors
Book-to-Bill Ratio
Book-to-bill ratio of 0.87:1 was below that 1:1 target for FY25.
Demand and Regulatory Concerns
Macro uncertainty may slow demand and regulatory delays and supply chain constraints have limited the company’s ability to convert backlog to revenue in the past.
Tariff Impact
Management estimated a $15mn EBITDA tariff headwind in 2025.

Itron (ITRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Itron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionItron, Inc., a technology and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage operations in the energy, water, and smart city space worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes. The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing. The Networked Solutions segment provides a combination of communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; and associated application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. The Outcomes segment offers value-added, enhanced software and services for managing, organizing, analyzing, and interpreting data to enhance decision making, maximize operational profitability, drive resource efficiency, and deliver results for consumers, utilities, and smart cities. In addition, it offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand. The company markets its products directly through its sales force, as well as through indirect sales force consisting of distributors, sales representatives, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives to utilities and municipalities. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyItron makes money primarily through the sale of its products and services to utility companies and municipalities. Key revenue streams include the sale of smart meters, which are used for measuring electricity, gas, and water usage, as well as the provision of data management and analytics software that helps clients optimize their resource management. Additionally, Itron offers managed services, consulting, and support that contribute to its revenue. The company's earnings are bolstered by partnerships with various technology firms and utility providers, which help expand its market reach and solution offerings.

Itron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 21.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment with strong earnings growth, margin expansion, and significant bookings and backlog levels. However, there were concerns about revenue decline in the Network Solutions segment and potential tariff impacts on EBITDA.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion
Itron reported first quarter revenue of $607 million, a 1% increase year-over-year. The company achieved a record gross margin of 35.8%, which was 180 basis points higher than last year, driven by favorable product mix and operational efficiencies.
Strong Earnings Growth
Non-GAAP earnings per share increased to $1.52, up from $1.24 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $88 million, marking a 15% increase with a company record EBITDA margin of 14.5%.
Device Solutions and Outcomes Segment Performance
Device Solutions segment achieved record gross margin of 30% and operating margin of 24.2%. Outcomes revenue grew 14% year-over-year, supported by increased recurring revenue and software licenses.
Bookings and Backlog
Bookings in the first quarter totaled $530 million, an increase of $169 million from last year. The backlog remained near record levels at $4.7 billion.
Negative Updates
Network Solutions Revenue Decline
Network Solutions revenue decreased 1% year-over-year due to a higher-than-normal Q1 2024 level, which included the catch-up of previously constrained revenue.
Tariff Impact on EBITDA
The estimated EBITDA impact for the year due to tariffs is approximately $15 million, net of mitigation measures such as alternate sourcing and pricing adjustments.
Company Guidance
During Itron's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided a comprehensive financial update and guidance for the upcoming period. Key metrics highlighted included a revenue of $607 million, an adjusted EBITDA of $88 million, and a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.52 for the first quarter. The company also reported a free cash flow of $67 million and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.9:1, resulting in a backlog of $4.7 billion. Gross margin reached a quarterly record of 35.8%, driven by a favorable product mix and operational efficiencies. The company anticipates second-quarter revenue between $605 million and $615 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share expected to range from $1.30 to $1.40, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 12% at the midpoint. Additionally, the potential EBITDA impact from tariffs was estimated at $15 million, net of mitigation measures, though this remains subject to the dynamic tariff environment.

Itron Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Itron shows strong financial performance with robust income growth, improved profitability, and effective leverage management. While operational leverage optimization is needed, the company is well-positioned for growth.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Itron has demonstrated strong growth in its income statement, with revenue increasing from $1.80 billion in 2022 to $2.44 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Gross profit margin improved to 34.6% from previous levels, reflecting operational efficiency. The net profit margin also strengthened to 10.4% in TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 11.3% and 14.4% respectively, suggest there is room for improved operational leverage.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Itron's balance sheet is solid, with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio improving significantly due to reduced debt levels and increased equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is a manageable 0.41, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is robust at 17.0%, showcasing effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio stands at 42.5%, suggesting a moderate reliance on liabilities to finance assets.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Itron's cash flow position is strong, with free cash flow growing by 28.4% from the previous year, driven by improved operating cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.06, indicating that the company is effectively converting profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.05, further highlighting the company's cash generation capability. Despite these strengths, the firm should continue monitoring capital expenditures to sustain cash flow growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.44B2.44B2.17B1.80B1.98B2.17B
Gross Profit846.65M839.32M713.91M522.19M573.17M602.17M
EBITDA352.55M356.19M191.50M57.74M7.07M96.09M
Net Income252.86M239.10M96.92M-9.55M-78.30M-56.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.50B3.41B2.60B2.38B2.39B2.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.12B1.05B302.05M202.01M162.58M206.93M
Total Debt612.79M1.27B502.46M515.10M507.54M987.76M
Total Liabilities1.99B2.00B1.27B1.19B1.25B1.77B
Stockholders Equity1.49B1.39B1.31B1.17B1.12B816.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow262.01M207.61M98.09M4.75M120.11M63.31M
Operating Cash Flow269.19M238.18M124.97M24.50M154.79M109.51M
Investing Cash Flow-26.90M-63.41M-23.31M40.52M-34.88M-41.04M
Financing Cash Flow580.05M579.57M-3.51M-18.74M-152.89M-11.58M

Itron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price135.69
Price Trends
50DMA
118.19
Positive
100DMA
110.40
Positive
200DMA
110.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.89
Negative
RSI
80.66
Negative
STOCH
90.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.36, above the 50-day MA of 118.19, and above the 200-day MA of 110.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.66 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ITRI.

Itron Risk Analysis

Itron disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Itron reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Itron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$6.19B24.7417.73%7.10%58.52%
74
Outperform
$7.01B31.169.50%0.84%-1.14%
VNVNT
72
Outperform
$5.69B15.6635.88%0.26%-3.59%-11.30%
72
Outperform
$5.84B54.854.39%1.18%-3.43%-50.48%
71
Outperform
$4.80B68.219.73%6.52%1.60%
69
Neutral
$5.46B47.568.02%0.98%8.56%18.99%
49
Neutral
C$2.97B2.15-83.78%2.54%12.97%-24.70%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ITRI
Itron
135.69
36.90
37.35%
CGNX
Cognex
32.52
-14.36
-30.63%
NOVT
Novanta
133.33
-26.91
-16.79%
LFUS
Littelfuse
236.49
-13.39
-5.36%
MKSI
MKS
104.56
-30.35
-22.50%
VNT
Vontier
38.44
0.39
1.02%

Itron Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Itron Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 9, 2025

Itron, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where six proposals were voted upon and each passed. The proposals included the election of Diana D. Tremblay as a director, approval of executive compensation, amendments to the company’s articles of incorporation, and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market operations and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025