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Sensata (ST)
NYSE:ST

Sensata (ST) AI Stock Analysis

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Sensata

(NYSE:ST)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(13.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash generation and a stronger balance sheet, supported by positive technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook with margin-floor discipline. Offsetting factors are weak/volatile profitability (very thin TTM net margin) and a less-informative negative P/E, which temper the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds buybacks/dividends, debt paydown, and capex for growth initiatives. A high FCF conversion (97% in 2025) reduces reliance on external financing and supports multi-year capital allocation priorities.
Very conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Extremely low net leverage and a sizeable equity base increase resilience through cycles and give room to invest or pursue M&A without stressing liquidity. The shift from prior higher leverage materially improves solvency and long-term optionality.
Higher-margin product wins and portfolio diversification
Meaningful new content (A2L, data center initiative) and a reorganization into three segments diversify revenue and increase higher-margin exposure. Durable structural wins and segment margin expansion improve long-run earnings mix and reduce single-market dependency.
Negative Factors
Thin and volatile profitability
Very low TTM net margin and episodic losses indicate earnings are fragile and sensitive to volume, mix, and one-time items. Compressed EBITDA margins versus 2021–22 reduce ability to absorb cost shocks and limit sustainable return generation for shareholders.
End-market cyclicality exposure
Significant exposure to cyclic automotive and heavy-vehicle markets creates revenue and margin volatility across multi-year OEM cycles. Prolonged weakness in truck and industrial production can materially depress shipments despite product diversification.
Tariff and commodity cost pressures
Persistent tariffs and precious-metal input cost volatility can erode margins if pass-through is limited or delayed. Even with hedges and redesign efforts, these structural cost pressures risk recurring margin drag and complicate multi-quarter margin visibility.

Sensata (ST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sensata Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSensata Technologies Holding plc develops, manufactures, and sells sensors, sensor-based solutions, controls, and other products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Performance Sensing and Sensing Solutions. The Performance Sensing segment develops and manufactures sensors, high-voltage contactors, and other solutions used in mission-critical systems and applications, such as tire pressure monitoring, thermal management, electrical protection, regenerative braking, powertrain (engine/transmission), and exhaust management. This segment serves customers in the automotive, and heavy vehicle and off-road industries. The Sensing Solutions segment develops and manufactures application-specific sensor and electrical protection products primarily serving the industrial and aerospace markets. Its products include pressure and position sensors, motor and compressor protectors, high-voltage contactors, solid state relays, bimetal electromechanical controls, power inverters, charge controllers, battery management systems, operator controls, and Internet of Things solutions. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Attleboro, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneySensata generates revenue through the sale of its sensor and electrical protection products to customers in multiple industries. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales, with significant contributions from long-term contracts and partnerships with major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automotive and industrial sectors. Key revenue streams include the automotive segment, which focuses on sensors that improve vehicle safety and efficiency, and the industrial segment, which supplies solutions for automation and control systems. Sensata also benefits from recurring revenue through aftermarket sales and services, as well as collaborations with strategic partners that enhance its market reach and product offerings.

Sensata Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational progress and financial improvement: record free cash flow, margin recovery meeting the 19% floor, deleveraging, return of revenue growth in H2 2025, and strong segment margin expansion. Management outlined a clear go‑forward structure (three segments), concrete growth initiatives (data centers, A2L, aerospace/defense/UAVs) and prudent capital allocation. Near-term risks include a reported 6% revenue decline for the year due to divestitures, cyclicality in on-road truck and industrial end markets, tariff and precious metals pressures, and one-time restructuring and impairment charges. Overall, the positives—especially cash generation, margin resilience, and clear execution steps—outweigh the near-term headwinds, supporting a constructive outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow and Conversion
Generated record free cash flow of $490 million in 2025, up 25% year-over-year, with free cash flow conversion of 97% (an improvement of 21 percentage points versus prior year).
Margin Recovery and Operational Excellence
Fourth-quarter adjusted operating margin of 19.6% (up 30 basis points year-over-year and sequentially) and full-year adjusted operating margin of 19.0%, meeting the company's 19% margin floor; excluding tariff pass-through items, full-year margin expanded ~20 basis points.
Returned to Revenue Growth and Organic Outgrowth
Q4 revenue of $918 million, $13 million above midpoint guidance, up ~$10 million (≈1%) year-over-year and up ~4% on an organic basis; company returned to outgrowth in H2 2025 and delivered Q4 organic growth.
Strong Segment Performance and Margin Expansion
All three new segments delivered Q4 organic revenue growth and significant margin expansion: Automotive $527M (≈-1% reported, +1% organic) with 24.4% segment margin (+100 bps YoY); Industrials $191M (+6% reported, +8% organic) with 30.9% margin (+620 bps YoY); Aerospace, Defense & Commercial Equipment $199M (+4% reported, +7% organic) with 28.1% margin (+310 bps YoY).
Capital Allocation and Deleveraging
Returned $191 million to shareholders in 2025 ( $121M buybacks, $70M dividends), retired $354 million of long-term debt in Q4, reduced net leverage to 2.7x trailing 12‑month adjusted EBITDA (from 3.0x a year earlier), and ended the year with $573 million of cash.
Product Wins and Growth Initiatives
A2L gas leak detection ramped from ~$10–$15M (2024) to about $70M in 2025 and is expected to mature north of a $100M annual run-rate; company launched a dedicated data center growth initiative in Q4 2025 and reorganized into three segments (Automotive ~57% of 2025 revenue, Industrials ~21%, Aerospace/Defense/Commercial ~22%).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline (Reported)
2025 reported revenue of $3.70 billion declined 6% versus $3.93 billion in 2024, primarily due to previously disclosed divestitures and product life-cycle management actions (organic revenues were approximately flat).
End-Market Cyclicality and Weakness in On-Road Trucks
North American on-road truck production decreased 26% year-over-year in 2025 and 22% in Q4; company expects similar declines through H1 2026 with only modest recovery in H2, creating near-term headwinds for the Aerospace/Commercial Equipment exposure. Industrial end markets remain soft as inventories built for tariffs/regulatory changes draw down through H1 2026.
Tariff and Commodity Cost Pressures
Tariff pass-through/recovery reduced margins (approximately $15M of 0-margin pass-through in Q4 diluted Q4 margin by ~30 bps; ~$40M of pass-through in 2025 diluted full-year margin by ~20 bps). Precious metals (silver, gold, platinum) present a 2026 headwind, though these exposures are hedged and management expects to mitigate via supply chain actions and pass-throughs.
Restructuring and Program Cancellation Charges
Recorded approximately $50 million of restructuring-related and other charges in Q4 2025, including about $16 million of primarily noncash charges tied to an OEM electric vehicle program cancellation; these were excluded from non-GAAP measures but reflect near-term transformation costs and program loss exposure.
Dynapower Goodwill Impairment
Management confirmed a goodwill impairment related to Dynapower (raised by analysts), which is a non-cash charge and will not produce margin uplift from depreciation/amortization reductions; this underscores limited near-term benefit from that asset write-down.
Near-Term Free Cash Flow Seasonality and Higher Compensation
Expect Q1 2026 free cash flow conversion to be the year’s weakest quarter due to roughly $20 million higher variable compensation payments and interest seasonality; full-year free cash flow conversion guidance target is the high 80s (below 2025's 97%).
Company Guidance
Sensata guided Q1 2026 revenue of $917–$937M, adjusted operating income $168–$175M, adjusted operating margin 18.4%–18.6%, adjusted net income $118–$125M and adjusted EPS $0.81–$0.85 (midpoint implying ~2% YoY revenue growth, ~3% YoY adjusted operating income growth, ~20 bps YoY margin expansion and ~+$0.05 EPS), and assumed roughly $12M of tariff costs and pass‑through at the midpoint (trade policies as of Feb 18, 2026). Management noted a Q4→Q1 seasonal margin step‑down of ~110 bps (improved vs. ~200 bps historically), expects margins to normalize to ≥19% in Q2 and expand each quarter thereafter, reiterates a 19% annual margin floor while targeting at least 20 bps of full‑year margin expansion, and expects full‑year 2026 low‑single‑digit revenue growth. They warned Q1 free‑cash‑flow conversion will be seasonally lowest (impacted by ~ $20M higher variable compensation and front‑loaded interest), may see slightly lower FCF conversion in H1, and are targeting full‑year FCF conversion in the high‑80s% (above an 80% floor); precious‑metals exposure (silver, gold, platinum) is hedged and expected to be mitigated via supply‑chain, product redesign and pass‑through.

Sensata Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: revenue rebounded strongly (+24.3% TTM) and free cash flow is a clear strength (~$490M TTM) with consistently positive FCF. However, profitability is pressured and volatile (TTM net margin ~0.8%, down materially from 2021–2022; loss in 2023), which limits confidence in earnings durability despite a de-risked balance sheet (very low debt-to-equity ~0.01).
Income Statement
48
Neutral
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+24.3%), but profitability remains pressured: net margin is very thin (~0.8%) versus healthier levels in 2021–2022 (~7.6%–9.5%). Operating profitability has also compressed materially (EBITDA margin ~16.2% TTM vs ~21%–22% in 2021–2022). Results show volatility with a loss in 2023 and a sharp step-down in earnings again in TTM, which limits confidence in earnings durability despite the top-line recovery.
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Leverage looks very conservative in TTM with extremely low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.01), a major improvement from the more leveraged 2020–2024 period (roughly ~1.1–1.5). Equity remains sizable (~$2.8B TTM) against a ~$6.8B asset base, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main weakness is that returns on equity are currently low (~1.1% TTM), reflecting muted profitability even with a stronger capital structure.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation is a key strength: TTM operating cash flow is solid (~$622M) and free cash flow is strong (~$490M) with a sharp TTM increase in free cash flow versus the prior year. Free cash flow remains consistently positive across the multi-year period, providing flexibility. The watch-out is that cash conversion is not perfect—cash flow is not fully tracking accounting earnings in the same direction in TTM, suggesting working-capital or timing effects—but overall cash flow quality and scale are supportive.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.70B3.94B4.07B4.08B3.81B
Gross Profit1.00B989.00M1.08B1.20B1.11B
EBITDA770.50M456.83M506.99M856.49M852.30M
Net Income31.30M128.48M-3.91M310.69M363.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.75B7.14B7.68B8.76B8.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments573.00M593.67M508.10M1.23B1.71B
Total Debt2.85B3.26B3.44B4.28B4.30B
Total Liabilities3.97B4.25B4.68B5.65B5.52B
Stockholders Equity2.79B2.89B3.00B3.11B3.09B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow490.30M392.99M272.07M310.53M409.75M
Operating Cash Flow621.50M551.55M456.68M460.59M554.15M
Investing Cash Flow-95.80M-98.55M-165.00M-590.57M-882.09M
Financing Cash Flow-550.60M-363.41M-1.02B-353.46M174.92M

Sensata Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price37.02
Price Trends
50DMA
35.03
Positive
100DMA
33.10
Positive
200DMA
31.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.70
Negative
RSI
56.38
Neutral
STOCH
55.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.94, above the 50-day MA of 35.03, and above the 200-day MA of 31.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ST.

Sensata Risk Analysis

Sensata disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sensata reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sensata Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$6.99B53.079.25%0.16%13.13%24.02%
71
Outperform
$8.07B35.439.74%7.40%13.79%
69
Neutral
$4.48B15.2419.38%0.14%14.12%
68
Neutral
$5.34B-189.021.10%1.43%-8.07%63.50%
68
Neutral
$4.51B32.4418.33%9.37%15.70%
68
Neutral
$9.72B59.7310.67%17.88%91.41%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ST
Sensata
37.02
7.99
27.51%
ESE
Esco Technologies
277.04
115.66
71.67%
ITRI
Itron
95.21
-6.60
-6.48%
OSIS
OSI Systems
293.65
93.73
46.88%
SANM
Sanmina-Sci
147.87
64.08
76.48%
TTMI
TTM Technologies
106.85
82.61
340.80%

Sensata Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Sensata Announces CTO Departure Agreement
Neutral
Dec 11, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Sensata Technologies announced a Separation and Release of Claims Agreement with George Verras, its Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, effective December 31, 2025. The agreement, which is amicable and not due to any disagreements, outlines severance benefits including a year’s salary, bonus payments, and health benefits, reflecting the company’s structured approach to executive transitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ST) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sensata stock, see the ST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 23, 2026