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Badger Meter (BMI)
NYSE:BMI

Badger Meter (BMI) AI Stock Analysis

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BMI

Badger Meter

(NYSE:BMI)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$182.00
▲(24.39% Upside)
The score is driven by very strong financial performance (high margins, debt-free balance sheet, and solid free cash flow) and a generally positive earnings outlook (multi-year growth targets, SmartCover accretion, and the PRASA win). These strengths are tempered by weak technical conditions (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~37 with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Zero total debt and rising equity provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A, repurchases, and dividends without external financing. Robust ROE (~21%) shows efficient capital use, lowering insolvency risk and enabling steady strategic investment through business cycles.
Cash Generation and Conversion
Consistent, high free cash flow and conversion above earnings underpin sustainable capital allocation: funds operations, integration of acquisitions like SmartCover, and supports dividends and buybacks. Strong cash flow reduces dependency on external funding and enhances resilience to cyclical slowdowns.
Growing Software & AMI Platform
Expanding software and integrated AMI offerings increase recurring revenue, customer stickiness, and higher-margin mix. SmartCover extends addressable market across sewer/stormwater; the PRASA award validates scale capability and creates multi-year revenue runway, strengthening long-term competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Slowing Recent Revenue Growth
A marked deceleration to ~3.1% TTM growth, versus prior multi-year gains, reduces visibility and challenges the company’s ability to meet high-single-digit medium‑term targets. Slower base growth limits operating leverage and prolongs the time to scale higher-margin software and solution sales.
Revenue Timing & Project Pacing Risk
Large AMI and turnkey contracts drive long-term backlog but create durable lumpiness and timing uncertainty. Project pacing can push revenue and margin recognition across years, complicating forecasting, working-capital planning, and near-term margin accretion despite ultimately being profitable.
Commodity, Tariff and Manufacturing Cost Pressure
Ongoing tariff volatility and higher copper/Bi-alloy input costs are structural headwinds to gross margins. Buy‑American manufacturing requirements (Racine routing for PRASA) can raise production costs versus lower-cost locations, constraining margin sustainability absent price recovery or cost reductions.

Badger Meter (BMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Badger Meter Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBadger Meter, Inc. manufactures and markets flow measurement, quality, control, and communication solutions in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, Mexico, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers mechanical or static water meters, and related radio and software technologies and services to municipal water utilities. The company also provides flow instrumentation products, including meters, valves, and other sensing instruments to measure and control fluids going through a pipe or pipeline, including water, air, steam, oil, and other liquids and gases to original equipment manufacturers as the primary flow measurement device within a product or system, as well as through manufacturers' representatives. Its flow instrumentation products are used in water/wastewater, heating, ventilating and air conditioning, and corporate sustainability markets. In addition, the company offers ORION Migratable for automatic meter reading; ORION (SE) for traditional fixed network applications; and ORION Cellular for infrastructure-free fixed network meter reading solution, as well as BEACON advanced metering analytics, a secure cloud-hosted software suite that establishes alerts for specific conditions and allows consumer engagement tools that permit end water customers to view and manage their water usage activity. It also serves water utilities, industrial, and other industries. The company sells its products directly, as well as through resellers and representatives. Badger Meter, Inc. was incorporated in 1905 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyBadger Meter generates revenue through the sale of its flow measurement and control products, including water meters and related technologies. The company operates primarily in the water utilities sector, providing products that help municipalities manage water distribution efficiently. Key revenue streams include direct sales to utility companies, which account for a significant portion of its income, as well as sales to industrial customers for flow control applications. Additionally, the company benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance services and software solutions that facilitate data analytics and system integration. Strategic partnerships with utility providers and technology firms also enhance Badger Meter's market presence and contribute to its earnings by expanding its product offerings and reach.

Badger Meter Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong multi-year growth, record revenue, margin expansion, robust free cash flow, successful integration of SmartCover, and a significant AMI win (PRASA). Near-term variability tied to project pacing, timing uncertainty for large deployments, tariff/commodity cost pressures (notably copper and Bi-alloy inputs), and acquisition-related expense increases were noted as challenges. Management reiterated confidence in a high-single-digit organic growth outlook over a 5-year horizon while acknowledging quarter-to-quarter unevenness.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
2025 revenue surpassed $900 million, representing 11% year-over-year sales growth and a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the past 5 years.
Solid Q4 Sales Performance
Fourth quarter sales of $221 million, up 8% year-over-year (2% base growth excluding SmartCover). Utility water product line sales increased 9% year-over-year (2% excluding SmartCover).
Margin Expansion and Profitability Improvement
Operating profit margins expanded to 20.0% for 2025 (up 90 basis points year-over-year). Fourth quarter operating margins rose to 19.5% (up 40 bps YoY) and base operating margins expanded to 20.5% (up 140 bps YoY). Gross margin in Q4 improved to 42.1%, up 180 bps year-over-year.
Earnings and Cash Generation
Consolidated EPS in Q4 was $1.14 versus $1.04 prior year (+10% YoY). Record quarterly free cash flow of $50.8 million (approximately $3.4 million increase YoY). Free cash flow conversion remained in excess of 100% of net earnings for the year.
Software Revenue Growth and Recurring Revenue Mix
Software revenue (including SmartCover) exceeded $74 million and now represents 8% of sales. Software grew at a 28% CAGR over the past 5 years, increasing recurring revenue exposure.
Successful SmartCover Integration
SmartCover delivered approximately $40 million of sales in 2025 (25% on an annualized basis), improved profitability through higher volumes and cost management, manufacturing transferred to Racine, and management expects earnings accretion in 2026.
Major AMI Contract Win (PRASA)
Awarded the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority AMI project covering ~1.6 million service connections (one of the largest global deployments). Badger Meter will be supply-only (meters, ORION Cellular AMI radios, BEACON SaaS) with production in Racine; expected multi-year deployment beginning 2026 with more meaningful revenue in H2 2026.
Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Cash on hand in excess of $225 million, opportunistic $15 million share repurchase in Q4, 33rd consecutive annual dividend increase, and continued focus on M&A and reinvestment.
Negative Updates
Project Pacing Led to Sequential Sales Decline
Q4 utility water sales declined 6% sequentially versus Q3 2025 due to fewer operating days and project pacing (timing and customer/project mix), and management expects a similar unevenness into H1 2026 with a stronger H2 2026.
Near-Term Timing Uncertainty Around Large Deployments
Although PRASA is awarded, management will not size its 2026 revenue impact due to numerous variables; multi-year deployments often span ~5 years and can shift quarter-to-quarter, creating revenue timing uncertainty.
Commodity and Tariff Headwinds
While 2025 largely reached price-cost parity on tariff impacts, management expects tariffs/trade conditions to remain fluid in 2026 and elevated copper and Bi-alloy ingot component costs to be a gross margin headwind; normalized gross margin guidance range set at 39%–42%.
Higher SG&A/SEA from Acquisition and Personnel
SEA expenses in Q4 were $49.9 million with a $6.4 million YoY increase primarily driven by SmartCover acquisition; excluding SmartCover, base SEA increased 2.9% YoY due mainly to higher personnel costs.
Lower-than-Expected Base Growth in Second Half 2025
Management noted base revenue growth of 6% in the second half of 2025, below the company’s 5-year high-single-digit target, attributed to concentrated concluding AMI turnkey projects.
Turnkey Projects Can Be Margin Dilutive
When acting as prime contractor for turnkey projects, pass-through activities such as outsourced installation and ancillary supplies have lower margins, which can depress blended margins during those periods.
Manufacturing Location May Affect Cost Structure
PRASA manufacturing is routed through Racine to meet Buy American requirements; management acknowledged potential margin impacts relative to lower-cost locations, though this was contemplated in contracting.
Company Guidance
Badger Meter reiterated its long‑term targets and near‑term cadence: management expects high‑single‑digit organic sales growth over the next five years but noted 2026 will be back‑loaded (lower growth in H1, stronger growth in H2) due to project pacing; the large PRASA award (~1.6 million service connections) should begin shipments in 2026 with more meaningful revenue in H2 but will not be separately sized for 2026; normalized gross margin is guided to a 39%–42% range (Q4 gross margin was 42.1%), tariffs reached price‑cost parity in 2025 but remain fluid in 2026 and higher copper/ingot costs are expected to be a headwind, SmartCover (2025 sales $40M) is integrated and on track for 2026 earnings accretion, and management expects continued operating profit margin expansion and free cash flow conversion in excess of earnings over the five‑year horizon; reminder metrics from the call include Q4 sales of $221M (+8% y/y; +2% base), FY2025 sales >$900M (+11%; 17% 5‑yr CAGR), Q4 EPS $1.14 (+10% y/y), record Q4 free cash flow $50.8M, primary working capital ~20.9% of sales, cash on hand >$225M, $15M of share repurchases in Q4, and software revenue >$74M (8% of sales; 28% 5‑yr CAGR).

Badger Meter Financial Statement Overview

Summary
High-quality fundamentals: strong profitability (TTM gross margin ~41%, net margin ~15%, EBIT margin ~20%), robust balance sheet with zero debt and rising equity, and solid free-cash-flow generation (TTM FCF ~$166M; ~0.92x net income). Main risks are moderating latest TTM revenue growth (~3.1%) and some historical cash-flow variability from working-capital timing.
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
BMI shows a strong and improving earnings profile. Revenue has grown meaningfully over the last several years (from $426M in 2020 to $827M in 2024, and $901M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), supported by healthy profitability: TTM gross margin ~41% and net margin ~15% with solid operating leverage (TTM EBIT margin ~20%). The main drawback is that the most recent growth rate shown for TTM (~3.1%) is much slower than the prior-year growth pace, suggesting a moderating top-line trajectory.
Balance Sheet
94
Very Positive
The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with zero total debt reported across periods, providing high financial flexibility and low balance-sheet risk. Equity has steadily increased (to ~$606M in 2024 and ~$703M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and returns on equity are robust (~21% in TTM), indicating strong capital efficiency. A minor limitation is that with no debt, the company is not using leverage to potentially enhance returns, but the overall risk profile remains very favorable.
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
Cash generation is strong and consistent: free cash flow is high and growing (TTM free cash flow ~$166M; positive growth), and free cash flow runs close to net income (TTM ~0.92x), indicating good earnings quality. Operating cash flow also covers net income well in the most recent periods (TTM ~1.18x; 2024 ~1.31x). The key watch-out is periodic variability (e.g., operating cash flow below net income in 2022–2023), which can signal working-capital timing swings.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue916.66M826.56M703.59M565.57M505.20M
Gross Profit382.07M329.18M276.44M219.97M205.48M
EBITDA223.24M190.12M146.03M113.41M106.47M
Net Income141.63M124.94M92.60M66.50M60.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets973.58M816.41M716.92M603.05M530.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments226.02M295.31M191.78M138.05M87.17M
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities260.28M210.18M200.44M160.63M127.75M
Stockholders Equity713.29M606.23M516.48M442.42M403.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow169.67M142.22M98.11M76.56M80.76M
Operating Cash Flow183.70M155.03M110.12M82.45M87.51M
Investing Cash Flow-198.05M-15.82M-29.13M-5.89M-51.42M
Financing Cash Flow-57.98M-35.10M-28.09M-24.61M-20.51M

Badger Meter Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price146.31
Price Trends
50DMA
172.45
Negative
100DMA
175.70
Negative
200DMA
196.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-8.03
Positive
RSI
32.53
Neutral
STOCH
20.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 146.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.49, below the 50-day MA of 172.45, and below the 200-day MA of 196.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BMI.

Badger Meter Risk Analysis

Badger Meter disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Badger Meter reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Badger Meter Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$9.94B54.948.12%17.88%91.41%
73
Outperform
$6.06B47.918.93%0.16%13.13%24.02%
72
Outperform
$4.31B30.5421.47%0.82%12.11%16.45%
71
Outperform
$7.96B34.069.74%7.40%13.79%
70
Outperform
$4.67B17.9116.93%0.14%14.12%
68
Neutral
$4.17B29.2818.33%9.37%15.70%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BMI
Badger Meter
145.88
-68.40
-31.92%
ESE
Esco Technologies
238.40
106.21
80.34%
ITRI
Itron
99.56
-6.53
-6.16%
OSIS
OSI Systems
258.16
52.12
25.30%
SANM
Sanmina-Sci
142.34
54.49
62.03%
TTMI
TTM Technologies
92.58
65.86
246.48%

Badger Meter Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Badger Meter Announces Key Executive Appointments
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Badger Meter announced several key executive appointments effective January 1, 2026, including Robert A. Wrocklage as Executive Vice President – North America Municipal Utility and Daniel R. Weltzien as Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. These appointments come with significant salary and incentive adjustments, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership alignment and operational efficiency. Additionally, Badger Meter amended its Key Executive Employment Agreements to provide enhanced benefits and protections for its executives in the event of a change-in-control, underscoring the company’s commitment to retaining top talent and ensuring stability during potential transitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMI) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Badger Meter stock, see the BMI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026