Itron (ITRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 0.14%
• EPS Growth: 14.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,040
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): 2.46
• Shares Outstanding: 44,941,208
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,083,616
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,224,780
• PEG Ratio: 0.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.33
• 1Y Price Target: $134.71
• Price Target Upside: 48.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.43B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $106.00 ▲(16.97% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin/FCF improvement and reduced leverage). Offsetting that strength are weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and cautious near-term outlook from guidance (modest 2026 growth and EPS dilution from acquisitions), with valuation remaining reasonable at ~15x earnings.

Positive Factors

Margin and Cash Generation

Sustained margin expansion and strong free cash flow improve the company’s ability to fund R&D, sustain higher incremental profitability, and support capital allocation choices (debt paydown, buybacks, M&A). These cash and margin dynamics create durable earnings resilience even if revenue growth is uneven.

Recurring Revenue / ARR Growth

A growing ARR base shifts revenue mix toward predictable, higher-margin recurring streams, raising revenue visibility and customer stickiness. Mid-teens-plus ARR growth supports longer-term margin sustainability and reduces reliance on lumpy device project cycles common in utilities.

Improved Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Material deleveraging and stronger equity return metrics reduce financial risk and increase strategic flexibility for acquisitions, capex, and buybacks. A cleaner capital structure also lowers refinancing pressure and supports investment in product and recurring revenue expansion over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Top-line Weakness and Modest Guidance

Near-flat full-year revenue guidance and an indicated Q1 decline point to constrained top-line momentum. If revenue remains muted, continued margin reliance and acquisition-driven growth assumptions must deliver, increasing execution risk and making organic growth recovery a multi-quarter challenge.

Acquisition Dilution and Integration Risk

Large recent M&A increases short-term EPS dilution and cash deployment while new Resiliency assets are loss-making in early stages. Integration and realization of synergies are multi-quarter tasks; failure to integrate smoothly would pressure margins and delay the expected accretion into 2027.

Lumpy Project Timing and Device/Network Declines

Revenue volatility driven by project timing, legacy device declines, and lumpiness in bookings impairs predictability. For a business that benefits from scale and recurring revenue, such swings complicate resource planning and can mute long-term growth unless recurring ARR and outcomes accelerate materially.

Itron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Itron, Inc., a technology and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage operations in the energy, water, and smart city space worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes. The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing. The Networked Solutions segment provides a combination of communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; and associated application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. The Outcomes segment offers value-added, enhanced software and services for managing, organizing, analyzing, and interpreting data to enhance decision making, maximize operational profitability, drive resource efficiency, and deliver results for consumers, utilities, and smart cities. In addition, it offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand. The company markets its products directly through its sales force, as well as through indirect sales force consisting of distributors, sales representatives, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives to utilities and municipalities. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Itron generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of hardware, software, and services related to utility metering and management. Key revenue streams include the sale of smart meters and related devices, software licenses for data management and analytics, and ongoing support and maintenance services. Additionally, Itron earns revenue from consulting services that assist utilities in optimizing their operations. The company also benefits from partnerships with various utility companies and municipalities, providing tailored solutions that address specific resource management challenges. Significant contracts and long-term agreements with major utility providers contribute to Itron's financial stability and growth.

Itron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong turnaround and current strength: profitability and margins improved materially (net margin up to ~12.7% in 2025; gross margin ~37.7%), free cash flow is robust and closely tracks earnings, and leverage improved sharply in 2025 with a major debt reduction. The key risk is uneven growth, with revenue slightly down in 2025 after strong 2023–2024 gains.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the 2020–2022 loss period, with solid results in 2023–2025: net margin rose from ~4.5% (2023) to ~9.8% (2024) and ~12.7% (2025), alongside gross margin expansion to ~37.7% (2025). Revenue growth has been uneven—strong in 2023–2024, but slightly down in 2025—so the earnings strength appears driven more by margin improvement than sustained top-line acceleration.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved sharply in 2025 as total debt fell to ~$571M from ~$1.28B in 2024, bringing debt relative to equity down to ~0.33x (from ~0.92x). Equity has built over time, and returns to shareholders are strong in 2024–2025 (ROE ~17–18%), a major rebound from negative levels in 2020–2022. The key watch item is that the capital structure was meaningfully more levered as recently as 2024 (and 2020), indicating the balance sheet has improved but hasn’t always been consistently conservative.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened materially: operating cash flow rose to ~$406M in 2025 (vs. ~$238M in 2024), and free cash flow also reached ~$406M in 2025. Cash flow quality is good, with free cash flow matching net income in 2025 (and covering most of net income in prior years), supporting the sustainability of earnings. Volatility remains a consideration given the very weak cash flow year in 2022, but the last three years show a clear upward trajectory.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.37B	2.44B	2.17B	1.80B	1.98B
Gross Profit	887.51M	839.32M	713.91M	522.19M	573.17M
EBITDA	382.88M	321.43M	226.91M	84.61M	121.03M
Net Income	301.06M	239.10M	96.92M	-9.73M	-81.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.72B	3.41B	2.60B	2.38B	2.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.02B	1.05B	302.05M	202.01M	162.58M
Total Debt	1.29B	1.28B	502.46M	515.10M	507.54M
Total Liabilities	1.98B	2.00B	1.27B	1.19B	1.25B
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	1.39B	1.31B	1.17B	1.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	380.85M	207.61M	98.09M	4.75M	110.36M
Operating Cash Flow	403.74M	238.18M	124.97M	24.50M	145.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-349.65M	-63.41M	-23.31M	40.52M	-34.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.25M	579.57M	-3.51M	-18.74M	-152.89M

Itron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 90.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ITRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 90.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.78, below the 50-day MA of 97.37, and below the 200-day MA of 113.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ITRI.

Itron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESE	80 Outperform	$6.90B	44.07	21.34%	0.16%	13.13%	24.02%
VNT	72 Outperform	$5.13B	13.43	34.02%	0.26%	1.76%	4.10%
BMI	71 Outperform	$4.29B	38.15	20.71%	0.82%	12.11%	16.45%
ITRI	69 Neutral	$4.07B	13.96	18.49%	―	0.14%	14.12%
ST	68 Neutral	$5.00B	155.81	1.11%	1.43%	-8.07%	63.50%
SANM	66 Neutral	$6.90B	42.40	9.86%	―	7.40%	13.79%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Itron Corporate Events

Itron Raises Capital Through New 2032 Convertible Notes Offering

On February 23–26, 2026, Itron entered into a private Rule 144A offering and related agreements to issue $805 million of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032, including full exercise of an additional $105 million option. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations with a March 15, 2032 maturity, feature an initial conversion price of about $123.77 per share, complex conversion and redemption triggers, and potential additional interest of up to 0.50% tied to reporting and legend-removal conditions.

In connection with the deal, Itron executed capped call transactions covering roughly 6.5 million shares with a strike aligned to the conversion price and an initial cap of $190.42, paying about $92.8 million to multiple bank counterparties. The financing is structured to minimize dilution upon conversion while providing low-cost capital to refinance its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026, fund up to $125 million of concurrent stock repurchases and support general corporate purposes, thereby strengthening the balance sheet and potentially supporting the share price.

The most recent analyst rating on (ITRI) stock is a Buy with a $128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Itron stock, see the ITRI Stock Forecast page.