BPER Banca S.p.A. (BPE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €23.68B
• Dividend Yield: 6.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: 5.23%
• EPS Growth: 3.54%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 19,508
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 1,964,386,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,056,490
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,270,287
• PEG Ratio: -0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.14
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €13.20
• Price Target Upside: 9.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: €14.00 ▲(16.09% Upside)

BPER Banca S.p.A. receives a strong overall score driven by robust financial performance and attractive valuation metrics. The company's solid revenue growth and balance sheet improvements are significant strengths, although cash flow management needs attention. Technical analysis supports a positive outlook, with bullish momentum and favorable price trends. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data does not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained multi-year revenue expansion reflects a successful growth strategy and deeper market penetration in Italy. Tripling revenue suggests scalable lending and fee businesses, supporting durable interest and non-interest income that can underpin medium-term earnings resilience.

Capital Strength

A materially stronger equity base provides improved regulatory buffers and loss-absorption capacity. Higher absolute capital enhances flexibility to support organic lending, meet regulatory requirements, and pursue strategic opportunities without immediate reliance on costly external financing.

Profitability Margins

Robust operating margins indicate efficient core operations and a profitable mix of lending, fees, and investment income. Margin strength supports cash generation potential and provides a buffer to absorb credit costs, contributing to sustainable earnings if maintained.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Negative free cash flow and poor operating-cash-to-income conversion point to structural cash-generation issues. This can constrain dividend capacity, limit organic loan growth or acquisitions, and requires sustained improvements in working capital and cash collection to restore financial flexibility.

Low Equity Ratio

An 8.07% equity ratio implies a relatively low buffer of equity versus assets, increasing sensitivity to credit shocks and asset repricing. Structurally, this limits aggressive balance-sheet expansion and could necessitate capital actions if macro stress or elevated loan losses occur.

Pressure on Net Margin

A declining net profit margin despite revenue growth suggests rising costs or pressure on net interest/fee margins. If persistent, margin erosion can reduce return on equity and require structural cost controls, repricing of products, or balance-sheet adjustments to restore profitability.

BPER Banca S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BPER Banca SpA provides banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. The company operates through Retail, Private, Corporate, Large Corporate, Finance, Corporate Center, and Other Assets segments. It offers loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, accounts, and digital banking related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services. The company also provides financing and leasing, credit management and factoring, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services. In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, global advisory, finance advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 1742 branches. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.

How the Company Makes Money

BPER Banca generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances provided to customers. This constitutes a significant portion of its earnings, as the bank earns interest on personal loans, mortgages, and business loans. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income from various services such as fees for account maintenance, transaction services, and financial advisory services. Investment returns on its securities and holdings also contribute to revenue generation. Furthermore, BPER Banca collaborates with insurance companies and other financial institutions to offer bundled products, enhancing its service offerings and revenue streams. The bank's diversified portfolio and strategic partnerships play a crucial role in stabilizing and increasing its earnings.

BPER Banca S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BPER Banca S.p.A. exhibits strong revenue growth and improving balance sheet strength, with notable equity improvements and moderate leverage. However, cash flow management remains an area for improvement, with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow ratios indicating potential inefficiencies. Overall, the company is on a solid financial footing but should focus on enhancing cash flow stability to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

BPER Banca S.p.A. shows strong growth in revenue, with a significant increase from €2.49 billion in 2019 to €7.63 billion in 2024, indicating a robust expansion strategy. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also substantial, with the EBIT margin at 33.28% and the EBITDA margin at 30.78% for 2024. However, the net profit margin has declined slightly from previous years, signaling potential cost management issues.

Balance Sheet

The company's equity has strengthened over the years, with stockholders' equity rising from €5.16 billion in 2019 to €11.35 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.75, indicating moderate leverage. While the equity ratio at 8.07% suggests a lower proportion of equity financing, the return on equity is relatively strong at 12.35% for 2024.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement presents some concerns, with a negative free cash flow of €-386.9 million in 2024, although this is an improvement from 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, which could signal inefficiencies in cash generation relative to income. Nonetheless, the company has shown an ability to recover from a negative cash flow position in previous years.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.83B	7.63B	7.39B	4.75B	3.96B	2.93B
Gross Profit	5.83B	5.99B	5.88B	4.31B	3.70B	2.74B
EBITDA	2.73B	2.42B	2.04B	1.65B	1.04B	381.23M
Net Income	1.58B	1.40B	1.52B	1.45B	525.12M	236.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	144.53B	140.59B	142.13B	152.30B	136.35B	93.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.60B	8.99B	10.09B	14.00B	21.77B	9.35B
Total Debt	20.11B	19.87B	11.90B	29.57B	7.33B	7.19B
Total Liabilities	132.89B	129.03B	132.56B	144.18B	129.49B	86.73B
Stockholders Equity	11.43B	11.35B	9.37B	7.94B	6.70B	6.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-386.94M	-3.58B	12.46B	1.02B	-870.78M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-251.27M	-3.42B	12.79B	1.26B	-634.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-215.29M	-314.08M	-17.07M	-743.13M	-223.13M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	513.33M	-178.37M	-85.50M	-64.13M	772.97M

BPER Banca S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BPE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.59, above the 50-day MA of 10.85, and above the 200-day MA of 8.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BPE.

BPER Banca S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPE	79 Outperform	€23.68B	10.50	13.13%	6.09%	5.23%	3.54%
BGN	78 Outperform	€6.57B	16.17	31.25%	4.75%	4.46%	-0.62%
BAMI	72 Outperform	€18.95B	7.90	16.45%	8.25%	2.23%	72.08%
FBK	71 Outperform	€13.72B	21.09	32.83%	3.35%	2.97%	4.64%
BMED	71 Outperform	€14.69B	12.58	26.99%	6.35%	-5.10%	26.87%
BMPS	69 Neutral	€28.40B	6.99	15.13%	9.69%	-5.31%	-35.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%