Banca Mediolanum SpA (IT:BMED)
:BMED
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Banca Mediolanum SpA
(BMED)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
€22.50
▲(21.36% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:11/07/25
Banca Mediolanum SpA's strong financial performance and robust earnings call results are the primary drivers of its score. The stock's reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, and liquidity concerns remain due to incomplete cash flow data.
Positive Factors
Capital Strength
A CET1 ratio of 23.2% provides a substantial regulatory capital buffer that supports organic growth, resilience to stress, and capacity for dividends or buybacks. Over the medium term this reduces solvency risk and enables strategic deployment of capital without needing urgent external financing.
Negative Factors
Declining Net Interest Income
A 5% drop in NII highlights sensitivity of core earnings to interest rate dynamics and competitive deposit/lending pressures. If this trend persists, it can erode net margin and require longer-term reliance on fees or cost cuts to sustain profitability and dividend capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital Strength
A CET1 ratio of 23.2% provides a substantial regulatory capital buffer that supports organic growth, resilience to stress, and capacity for dividends or buybacks. Over the medium term this reduces solvency risk and enables strategic deployment of capital without needing urgent external financing.
Read all positive factors
Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€13.67B
Dividend Yield6.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-5.10%
EPS Growth26.87%
CountryIT
Employees3,871
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding745,413,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,292,738
30 Day Avg. Volume1,192,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.82
P/FCF Ratio7.45
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€21.83Price Target Upside17.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)€2.63B
Banca Mediolanum SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Banca Mediolanum generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the bank earns interest income from loans and credit products, which constitute a significant portion of its earnings. Additionally, it receives fees from various financial...
Banca Mediolanum SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record net income, robust fee growth, exceptional net inflows (particularly into managed assets), strong capital metrics (CET1 23%) and a meaningful dividend increase. The bank highlights durable, relationship-driven revenue growth and execution on strategic initiatives (NEXT, Grandi Patrimoni, Spain expansion). Key challenges include performance-fee volatility, higher provisions (including build-up for Prexta), sensitivity of certain fees to market conditions (certificates), and Spain's margin compression at current scale. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (managed inflows ~EUR 9 billion, NII +~10%, cost-to-income ~38%, cost of risk ~20 bps) but acknowledged outcomes depend on market and rate assumptions. Overall, strengths and growth prospects materially outweigh the risks flagged, though execution and market conditions remain important to hit guidance.Positive Updates
Record Net Income and Improved Profitability
Net income of EUR 1.238 billion, up 11% vs 2024; contribution margin > EUR 2.1 billion; operating margin ~ EUR 1.2 billion, +10% vs prior record; ROE of 29.1%.
Negative Updates
Performance Fees and Other Investment Income Volatility
Performance fees were EUR 257 million gross, down 32% YoY from 2024; net income on other investments ~ EUR 22 million, down 35% YoY (impacted by disposal of Mediobanca stake).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Income and Improved Profitability
Net income of EUR 1.238 billion, up 11% vs 2024; contribution margin > EUR 2.1 billion; operating margin ~ EUR 1.2 billion, +10% vs prior record; ROE of 29.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the bank guided to net inflows into managed assets of around €9.0bn (assuming normal market conditions), net interest income up approximately 10% vs. 2025, a cost‑to‑income ratio of about 38% and a cost of risk around 20 basis points; management assumptions include a 3‑month Euribor steady‑state of ~1.95%, loan stock and new lending growth of roughly 5% each, a €3.0bn pipeline from installment plans/double‑chance deposits plus ≈€5.0bn currently in money‑market funds to be gradually invested, and strong capital (CET1 ~23% with a target to remain above ~22%); they also intend to increase the base dividend above the current €0.80 per share.Banca Mediolanum SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.98B | 3.01B | 2.42B | 1.49B | 6.45B | 3.18B |
| Gross Profit | 2.45B | 2.42B | 1.92B | 1.41B | 6.40B | 3.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.07B | 643.84M | 890.47M | 531.42M |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.12B | 821.87M | 506.83M | 713.05M | 434.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.97B | 86.15B | 77.83B | 73.60B | 73.52B | 59.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 806.77M | 1.28B | 188.13M | 2.75B | 519.02M | 803.23M |
| Total Debt | 393.24M | 396.88M | 8.63B | 9.70B | 68.01M | 74.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 81.80B | 82.13B | 74.38B | 70.66B | 70.64B | 56.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.18B | 4.03B | 3.45B | 2.94B | 2.88B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.14B | -1.81B | 2.24B | 848.49M | -49.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.15B | -1.75B | 2.30B | 909.30M | -7.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.52M | -23.93M | -34.06M | -38.14M | -38.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -640.36M | -385.65M | -431.51M | -737.97M | 4.92M |
Banca Mediolanum SpA Technical Analysis
Positive
18.54
Price Trends
17.88
Positive
18.43
Positive
17.17
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
63.46
Neutral
85.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.25, above the 50-day MA of 17.88, and above the 200-day MA of 17.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMED.
Banca Mediolanum SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €98.27B | 10.67 | 14.41% | 6.08% | -10.70% | 7.46% | |
71 Outperform | €13.67B | 12.65 | 26.99% | 6.35% | -5.10% | 26.87% | |
69 Neutral | €6.04B | 14.62 | 31.07% | 4.75% | 4.46% | -0.62% | |
69 Neutral | €12.71B | 10.31 | 40.02% | 3.35% | 2.97% | 4.64% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €19.16B | 5.75 | 18.92% | 8.25% | 2.23% | 72.08% | |
62 Neutral | €14.58B | 12.07 | 11.91% | 6.61% | -0.72% | 6.52% |
* Financial Sector Average
IT:BMED
Banca Mediolanum SpA
18.54
6.33
51.84%
IT:BGN
Banca Generali SpA
53.05
8.31
18.57%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
12.68
4.52
55.41%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
20.77
4.52
27.81%
IT:ISP
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
5.66
1.71
43.14%
IT:MB
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.
18.08
3.77
26.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.