Banca Mediolanum SpA (IT:BMED)
:BMED
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Banca Mediolanum SpA
(BMED)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
€21.00
▲(7.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
Overall score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability/cash generation and supportive earnings-call guidance, tempered by historical volatility in revenue/cash flows and past leverage swings. Valuation is attractive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are positive but not exceptionally strong.
Positive Factors
High profitability & ROE
Sustained high profitability and a near-30% ROE reflect strong earnings power and efficient capital use. Durable margin levels and recurring fee mix provide a structural buffer versus cyclicality, supporting dividend policy and reinvestment capacity over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Revenue and cash-flow volatility
Historic swings in revenue and cash generation reduce predictability of earnings and complicate capital planning. For a fee‑and‑NII reliant model, this volatility can force cyclical provisioning or earnings variability, limiting the reliability of cash returns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability & ROE
Sustained high profitability and a near-30% ROE reflect strong earnings power and efficient capital use. Durable margin levels and recurring fee mix provide a structural buffer versus cyclicality, supporting dividend policy and reinvestment capacity over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€13.46B
Dividend Yield6.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth-12.38%
EPS Growth10.36%
CountryIT
Employees3,871
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.55
Shares Outstanding745,413,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,292,738
30 Day Avg. Volume1,192,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.10
Price to Book (P/B)3.20
Price to Sales (P/S)2.82
P/FCF Ratio2.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€21.73Price Target Upside10.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)€2.35B
Banca Mediolanum SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Banca Mediolanum makes money primarily by earning fees and commissions from the placement and servicing of investment and insurance products, and by earning interest income from traditional banking activities. Key revenue streams typically include...
Banca Mediolanum SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record net income, robust fee growth, exceptional net inflows (particularly into managed assets), strong capital metrics (CET1 23%) and a meaningful dividend increase. The bank highlights durable, relationship-driven revenue growth and execution on strategic initiatives (NEXT, Grandi Patrimoni, Spain expansion). Key challenges include performance-fee volatility, higher provisions (including build-up for Prexta), sensitivity of certain fees to market conditions (certificates), and Spain's margin compression at current scale. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (managed inflows ~EUR 9 billion, NII +~10%, cost-to-income ~38%, cost of risk ~20 bps) but acknowledged outcomes depend on market and rate assumptions. Overall, strengths and growth prospects materially outweigh the risks flagged, though execution and market conditions remain important to hit guidance.Positive Updates
Record Net Income and Improved Profitability
Net income of EUR 1.238 billion, up 11% vs 2024; contribution margin > EUR 2.1 billion; operating margin ~ EUR 1.2 billion, +10% vs prior record; ROE of 29.1%.
Negative Updates
Performance Fees and Other Investment Income Volatility
Performance fees were EUR 257 million gross, down 32% YoY from 2024; net income on other investments ~ EUR 22 million, down 35% YoY (impacted by disposal of Mediobanca stake).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Income and Improved Profitability
Net income of EUR 1.238 billion, up 11% vs 2024; contribution margin > EUR 2.1 billion; operating margin ~ EUR 1.2 billion, +10% vs prior record; ROE of 29.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the bank guided to net inflows into managed assets of around €9.0bn (assuming normal market conditions), net interest income up approximately 10% vs. 2025, a cost‑to‑income ratio of about 38% and a cost of risk around 20 basis points; management assumptions include a 3‑month Euribor steady‑state of ~1.95%, loan stock and new lending growth of roughly 5% each, a €3.0bn pipeline from installment plans/double‑chance deposits plus ≈€5.0bn currently in money‑market funds to be gradually invested, and strong capital (CET1 ~23% with a target to remain above ~22%); they also intend to increase the base dividend above the current €0.80 per share.Banca Mediolanum SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.98B | 5.10B | 3.01B | 2.42B | 1.49B | 6.45B |
| Gross Profit | 2.45B | 4.71B | 2.42B | 1.92B | 1.41B | 6.40B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.45B | 1.07B | 643.84M | 890.47M |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 821.87M | 506.83M | 713.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.97B | 89.94B | 86.15B | 77.83B | 73.60B | 73.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 806.77M | 555.77M | 1.28B | 188.13M | 2.75B | 519.02M |
| Total Debt | 393.24M | 3.02B | 396.88M | 8.63B | 9.70B | 68.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 81.80B | 85.44B | 82.13B | 74.38B | 70.66B | 70.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.18B | 4.49B | 4.03B | 3.45B | 2.94B | 2.88B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 5.10B | 1.14B | -1.81B | 2.24B | 848.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 5.10B | 1.15B | -1.75B | 2.30B | 909.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.28B | -15.52M | -23.93M | -34.06M | -38.14M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -3.34B | -640.36M | -385.65M | -431.51M | -737.97M |
Banca Mediolanum SpA Technical Analysis
Positive
19.61
Price Trends
17.78
Positive
18.48
Positive
17.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
71.32
Negative
91.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.79, above the 50-day MA of 17.78, and above the 200-day MA of 17.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.32 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMED.
Banca Mediolanum SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | €13.46B | 7.03 | 26.99% | 6.35% | -12.38% | 10.36% | |
76 Outperform | €97.81B | 13.35 | 14.41% | 6.08% | -8.94% | 11.50% | |
69 Neutral | €6.18B | 12.42 | 31.07% | 4.75% | 2.86% | 3.37% | |
69 Neutral | €12.71B | 10.31 | 40.02% | 3.35% | 0.32% | -0.89% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €18.36B | 5.75 | 18.92% | 8.25% | -10.25% | 8.52% | |
62 Neutral | €15.73B | ― | 11.91% | 6.61% | -0.48% | 24.37% |
* Financial Sector Average
IT:BMED
Banca Mediolanum SpA
18.26
5.52
43.39%
IT:BGN
Banca Generali SpA
54.20
1.55
2.95%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
12.15
3.58
41.73%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
20.77
3.36
19.30%
IT:ISP
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
5.63
1.18
26.49%
IT:MB
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.
19.50
2.42
14.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.