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Banca Mediolanum SpA (IT:BMED)
:BMED
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Banca Mediolanum SpA
(BMED)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
€22.50
▲(23.36% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:11/07/25
Banca Mediolanum SpA's strong financial performance and robust earnings call results are the primary drivers of its score. The stock's reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, and liquidity concerns remain due to incomplete cash flow data.
Positive Factors
Capital Strength
A CET1 ratio of 23.2% provides a substantial regulatory capital buffer that supports organic growth, resilience to stress, and capacity for dividends or buybacks. Over the medium term this reduces solvency risk and enables strategic deployment of capital without needing urgent external financing.
Scale and Customer Growth
Crossing €150bn AUM and 2 million customers with strong net inflows underpins durable fee generation and advisor-driven distribution. Scale improves unit economics, supports higher recurring fees, and strengthens competitive positioning in retail wealth management over multiple quarters.
Recurring Fee Revenue Expansion
Rising recurring fee income and a 21% jump in managed asset inflows signal a revenue mix shift away from rate-dependent interest margins toward stable advisory and management fees. This structural diversification enhances margin predictability and lowers earnings sensitivity to interest-rate cycles.
Negative Factors
Declining Net Interest Income
A 5% drop in NII highlights sensitivity of core earnings to interest rate dynamics and competitive deposit/lending pressures. If this trend persists, it can erode net margin and require longer-term reliance on fees or cost cuts to sustain profitability and dividend capacity.
Incomplete / Volatile Cash Flows
Gaps in 2024 cash flow reporting and past free cash flow volatility limit visibility into operating liquidity and investment capacity. Over 2-6 months this uncertainty makes it harder to judge sustainable dividend coverage or the ability to fund strategic initiatives without depleting reserves.
Regional Performance Variability (Spain)
A sharp NII and profit decline in Spain shows regional concentration risks and execution or market challenges abroad. Persistent underperformance in a growth market can reduce diversification benefits and require capital or management focus to prevent long-term drag on group results.
Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
$13.45B
Dividend Yield6.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-5.10%
EPS Growth26.87%
CountryIT
Employees3,871
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding745,411,870
10 Day Avg. Volume1,292,738
30 Day Avg. Volume1,192,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.82
P/FCF Ratio7.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.86Price Target Upside19.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.33B
Banca Mediolanum SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBanca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and bonds, as well as trading services; and insurance and pension products and services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyBanca Mediolanum generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the bank earns interest income from loans and credit products, which constitute a significant portion of its earnings. Additionally, it receives fees from various financial services, including investment management and advisory services. The bank also profits from commissions on insurance products it sells, as well as from asset management fees. Partnerships with investment firms and insurance companies further enhance its product offerings and revenue potential. Banca Mediolanum's model is characterized by a direct-to-consumer approach, utilizing a network of financial advisors to drive sales and build long-term client relationships, which contributes to its recurring revenue streams.
Banca Mediolanum SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Banca Mediolanum demonstrated strong financial performance with record asset and customer growth, robust net inflows, and improved recurring fee income, despite challenges like declining net interest income and market volatility. The capital position remains strong, supporting continued investment and generous dividends.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Milestones Achieved
Banca Mediolanum reached over EUR 150 billion in assets and more than 2 million customers, marking significant growth milestones.
Strong Financial Performance
Net income increased by 8% to EUR 726 million, operating margin expanded by 5%, and net commission income rose by 11%.
Robust Net Inflows
Net inflows grew by 14% to EUR 8.16 billion, with managed asset inflows surging 21% year-on-year.
Improved Recurring Fee Income
Recurring fee income increased significantly, driven by higher average managed assets, even as interest rate tailwinds softened.
Strong Capital Position
The CET1 ratio increased to 23.2%, and the board declared an interim dividend of EUR 0.60 per share.
Growth in Spain
Total assets in Spain grew by 14%, with managed assets rising by 15% and net inflows increasing by 68%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Interest Income
Net interest income fell by 5% to EUR 582 million, impacted by interest rate headwinds.
Pressure on NII in Spain
Net interest income in Spain dropped by 24% year-on-year, contributing to a 28% decrease in net income in the region.
Impact of Market Volatility
Market volatility and a weaker U.S. dollar affected performance in Q2, although Q3 saw improvement.
Company Guidance
During the Banca Mediolanum 9 Month 2025 Results Conference Call, CEO Massimo Doris discussed the company's steady performance and future outlook. Key metrics highlighted include an 8% increase in net income to EUR 726 million, a 5% expansion in operating margin to EUR 891 million, and an 11% rise in net commission income to EUR 967 million. The company reached over EUR 150 billion in assets and more than 2 million customers. A strong 21% year-on-year surge in managed asset inflows was noted, contributing to healthier recurring fees. The revenue mix remained balanced, with recurring fee income offsetting a 5% drop in net interest income, which stood at EUR 582 million. Other significant financial achievements include a cost-income ratio of 37.2% and a CET1 ratio of 23.2%. Looking ahead, the company anticipates robust net inflows into managed assets at around EUR 8.5 billion for 2026, despite a slight expected decline in net interest income. Additionally, an interim dividend of EUR 0.60 per share was announced, reflecting the partial sale of a stake in Mediobanca.Banca Mediolanum SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Banca Mediolanum SpA shows strong profitability and revenue growth, supported by a robust equity structure and prudent debt management. However, incomplete cash flow data and historical cash flow volatility suggest potential liquidity concerns.Income Statement
Banca Mediolanum SpA has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024 and a consistently improving net profit margin, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. However, the absence of EBITDA data limits the assessment of operational cash generation capacity.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, reflecting a conservative approach to leverage. Yet, the absence of total asset data for 2024 prevents a complete analysis of asset management efficiency.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis is constrained by limited data, notably in operating and free cash flows for 2024. Historical data shows volatility in cash flow generation, with periods of negative free cash flow, signaling potential liquidity risks.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.98B | 3.01B | 2.42B | 1.49B | 6.45B | 3.18B |
| Gross Profit | 2.45B | 2.42B | 1.92B | 1.41B | 6.40B | 3.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.07B | 643.84M | 890.47M | 531.42M |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.12B | 821.87M | 506.83M | 713.05M | 434.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.97B | 86.15B | 77.83B | 73.60B | 73.52B | 59.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 806.77M | 1.28B | 188.13M | 2.75B | 519.02M | 803.23M |
| Total Debt | 393.24M | 396.88M | 8.63B | 9.70B | 68.01M | 74.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 81.80B | 82.13B | 74.38B | 70.66B | 70.64B | 56.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.18B | 4.03B | 3.45B | 2.94B | 2.88B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.14B | -1.81B | 2.24B | 848.49M | -49.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.15B | -1.75B | 2.30B | 909.30M | -7.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.52M | -23.93M | -34.06M | -38.14M | -38.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -640.36M | -385.65M | -431.51M | -737.97M | 4.92M |
Banca Mediolanum SpA Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.24
Price Trends
19.15
Negative
18.29
Negative
16.72
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.35
Negative
45.20
Neutral
92.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMED, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.57, below the 50-day MA of 19.15, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:BMED.
Banca Mediolanum SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | €23.58B | 12.97 | 13.13% | 6.09% | 5.23% | 3.54% | |
78 Outperform | €6.25B | 14.02 | 31.25% | 4.75% | 4.46% | -0.62% | |
72 Outperform | €18.95B | 9.12 | 16.45% | 8.25% | 2.23% | 72.08% | |
71 Outperform | $13.45B | 11.52 | 26.99% | 6.35% | -5.10% | 26.87% | |
71 Outperform | €12.22B | 18.89 | 32.83% | 3.35% | 2.97% | 4.64% | |
70 Outperform | €14.90B | 12.66 | 11.91% | 6.61% | -0.72% | 6.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
IT:BMED
Banca Mediolanum SpA
18.24
5.50
43.23%
IT:BGN
Banca Generali SpA
54.85
6.81
14.18%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
12.54
3.70
41.83%
IT:BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
12.01
5.16
75.30%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
19.99
2.52
14.41%
IT:MB
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.
18.47
2.23
13.73%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.