Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) AI Stock Analysis

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Banca Mediolanum SpA

(OTC:BMED)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:―

Banca Mediolanum SpA's overall performance is solid with strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability. However, liquidity concerns due to cash flow volatility and weak technical indicators suggest caution. The stock's attractive valuation provides a potential upside.

Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Market Cap

€10.90B

Dividend Yield6.29%

Average Volume (3M)1.81M

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5

Beta (1Y)1.00

Revenue Growth21.55%

EPS Growth36.51%

CountryIT

Employees3,871

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength81

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.30

Shares Outstanding745,372,400

10 Day Avg. Volume1,845,157

30 Day Avg. Volume1,812,940

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.45

Price to Book (P/B)2.70

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€16.35

Price Target Upside10.97% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Banca Mediolanum SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBanca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and bonds, as well as trading services; and insurance and pension products and services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.

How the Company Makes MoneyBanca Mediolanum SpA generates revenue through various streams, primarily from interest income on loans and mortgages, fees from asset management services, and insurance premiums. The bank earns interest income by lending money to individuals and businesses and charging an interest rate on these loans. Additionally, it collects fees from managing investment funds and providing personalized financial advisory services. The company's insurance arm contributes to revenue through the sale of life and non-life insurance products, collecting premiums from policyholders. Banca Mediolanum also invests in partnerships and leverages digital innovations to enhance service delivery and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Banca Mediolanum SpA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: 7.13%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong performance with record-breaking financial results, significant asset inflows, and positive growth in key markets like Spain. While there are challenges such as increased acquisition costs and potential financial impacts from regulatory changes, the overall outlook remains highly positive.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Financial Results

Net income reached EUR 674.3 million, exceeding last year by 18%. Net commission income grew by 13% to over EUR 874 million, and recurring fees hit EUR 1.13 billion, a 14.5% increase.

Strong Asset Inflows

Total net inflows reached EUR 7.16 billion, a 28% increase, with managed assets nearly doubling to EUR 5.44 billion. October's managed asset flows were EUR 703 million.

Positive Market Conditions

Favorable market conditions contributed to strong net inflows into managed assets and positive mark-to-market and performance fees totaling EUR 51 million.

Growth in Spain

Spain's operating margin grew by 2%, and net income increased by 10% to EUR 54.4 million. Managed assets inflows surged by 131%, reaching EUR 930 million.

Customer and Network Expansion

Acquisition of 149,000 new bank customers by September, a 7% increase. The bank's customer base grew to over 1,888,000, and the family banker network increased by 2%.

Strong Capital Position

CET1 ratio remains high at 23.4%, and leverage ratio is at 7.3%, allowing for future growth and increased dividend distributions.

Negative Updates

Higher Acquisition Costs

Acquisition costs to gross commission ratio increased in Q3 due to stronger inflows into managed assets compared to previous quarters.

Impact of ECB Rate Cuts

Despite strong net interest income of over EUR 630 million, ECB rate cuts had an impact, with a slight decrease in Q3 compared to Q2.

Significant Financial Impact of Prepaid Stamp Duty

The government’s requirement for prepayment of stamp duty on insurance policies could have a significant financial impact, with a potential obligation of EUR 22 to 44 million.

Company Guidance

During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Banca Mediolanum, CEO Massimo Doris provided strong guidance reflecting impressive financial performance. The bank achieved a net income of EUR 674.3 million, an 18% increase compared to the previous year, and a Q3 net income of EUR 224.4 million. Total net inflows for the first nine months reached EUR 7.16 billion, marking a 28% increase, with managed assets contributing EUR 5.44 billion, nearly doubling last year's figure. Net commission income grew by 13% to EUR 874 million, while recurring fees rose by 14.5% to EUR 1.13 billion. Despite a slight dip in net interest income due to promotional activities, the bank revised its NII guidance for 2024 to an 8% increase. The CET1 ratio stood at 23.4%, indicating a robust capital base, and the board announced a higher interim dividend of EUR 0.37 per share. Doris also highlighted significant growth in the Spanish market, with managed assets inflows reaching EUR 930 million, a 131% increase. The guidance for 2024 was revised upwards, with expectations of net inflows into managed assets around EUR 7.5 billion.

Banca Mediolanum SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Banca Mediolanum SpA showcases strong profitability and revenue growth, supported by a robust equity structure and prudent debt management. However, incomplete cash flow data and historical cash flow volatility suggest potential liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

Positive

Banca Mediolanum SpA has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024 and a consistently improving net profit margin, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. However, the absence of EBITDA data limits the assessment of operational cash generation capacity.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, reflecting a conservative approach to leverage. Yet, the absence of total asset data for 2024 prevents a complete analysis of asset management efficiency.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis is constrained by limited data, notably in operating and free cash flows for 2024. Historical data shows volatility in cash flow generation, with periods of negative free cash flow, signaling potential liquidity risks.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.99B	1.92B	1.46B	5.73B	3.11B
	Gross Profit
1.99B	1.87B	545.36M	4.81B	2.33B
	EBIT
1.21B	1.16B	741.41M	890.47M	531.42M
	EBITDA
1.51B	-19.41M	741.41M	890.47M	531.42M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.12B	821.87M	506.83M	713.05M	434.46M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
0.00	188.13M	2.75B	5.32B	664.61M
	Total Assets
0.00	77.83B	73.60B	73.52B	59.03B
	Total Debt
0.00	8.32B	372.29M	68.01M	74.38M
	Net Debt
0.00	8.13B	-2.38B	-5.25B	-590.24M
	Total Liabilities
82.13B	74.38B	70.66B	70.64B	56.29B
	Stockholders Equity
3.88B	3.45B	2.94B	2.88B	2.74B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	-1.81B	2.24B	848.49M	-49.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.19B	-1.75B	2.30B	909.30M	-7.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-51.65M	-23.93M	-34.06M	-38.14M	-38.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-640.36M	-385.65M	-428.66M	-737.97M	4.92M

Banca Mediolanum SpA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.73

Price Trends

50DMA

13.69

Positive

100DMA

13.09

Positive

200DMA

11.74

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.44

Negative

RSI

62.10

Neutral

STOCH

37.05

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMED, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.33, above the 50-day MA of 13.69, and above the 200-day MA of 11.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMED.

Banca Mediolanum SpA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.67B	9.74	7.58%	17015.08%	12.21%	-6.96%
BMED	63 Neutral	€10.90B	9.51	27.96%	6.29%	21.55%	36.51%
0RLA		€14.90B	7.72	13.41%	9.80%	―	―
0MU6		€10.85B	7.79	13.24%	3.93%	―	―
0HBC		€84.40B	9.86	13.70%	6.67%	―	―
0HBF		€16.56B	12.66	11.91%	5.23%	―	―

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IT:BMED

Banca Mediolanum SpA

14.73

5.06

52.30%

GB:0RLA

Banco BPM S.p.A.

9.86

4.15

72.68%

GB:0MU6

BPER Banca S.p.A.

7.68

3.23

72.58%

GB:0HBC

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA

4.84

1.58

48.47%

GB:0HBF

Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.

20.57

7.06

52.26%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.