Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA (BMPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €26.00B
• Dividend Yield: 9.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 35.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: -5.31%
• EPS Growth: -35.03%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 16,678
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 3,038,418,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,830,432
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,845,048
• PEG Ratio: -0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €9.40
• Price Target Upside: 7.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: €10.00 ▲(13.90% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/03/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/03/25

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA's overall stock score is driven by its strong valuation, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield indicating potential undervaluation and income opportunities. Financial performance is solid, though challenges with profitability consistency and equity stability persist. Technical analysis suggests short-term bearish momentum, but potential for a bullish reversal exists.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams

Multiple durable revenue streams — net interest income, fees, asset management and insurance — reduce reliance on one business line. This diversification stabilizes cash generation across economic cycles, supports cross‑sell, and helps sustain margins as interest conditions fluctuate.

Consistent positive free cash flow

Sustained positive free cash flow and resilient operating cash flow provide structural funding for loan growth, capital needs and potential shareholder returns. Reliable cash generation strengthens financial flexibility, enabling investment or debt reduction without urgent external financing.

Improving return on equity

A materially improving ROE indicates more efficient use of equity and better profitability dynamics. Over the medium term this supports internal capital formation, enhances ability to compete for deposits and lending, and can make future capital raises less dilutive if the trend is maintained.

Negative Factors

Volatile net income and profitability

Persistent volatility in net income undermines planning and capital allocation: unpredictable profits complicate provisioning, dividend policy and regulatory capital management. If recurring, this volatility can constrain strategic investments and elevate funding costs over time.

Relatively low equity ratio

A low equity ratio raises structural vulnerability to credit or market shocks and can force precautionary capital raises during downturns. Long‑term lending capacity and regulatory headroom may be constrained, increasing earnings dilution risk if equity issuance becomes necessary.

Recent negative revenue trend

A decline in reported revenue growth signals potential structural pressures—loss of market share, margin compression, or weaker loan/fee volumes. If this trend persists, it will impair cash generation and the bank’s ability to fund growth or rebuild capital buffers without external support.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, and Wealth Management segments. It offers funding and lending services, insurance products, financial advisory, and electronic payment services; financial and non-financial services; wealth management and financial planning services; consultancy services, such as tax planning, real estate, art, and legal advisory; fiduciary and trust services; and digital banking services. The company also provides leasing and factoring services for businesses, artisans, and professionals; and medium-and long-term credit facilities, corporate finance, capital markets, and structured finance services. In addition, it offers investment banking products and services; foreign banking services; and custody and deposit services for dairy products on behalf of third parties. Further, the company develops and manages ICT and telecommunication systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 1,368 branches, 126 specialized centers, and 2,621 ATM machines in Italy; 1 operational branch in Shanghai; and 8 representative offices in the areas of Europe, North Africa, India, and China. The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.

How the Company Makes Money

BMPS generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the bank earns money from net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank provides various loan products, including mortgages, personal loans, and business financing, which contribute significantly to its interest income. Additionally, BMPS earns fees from various banking services, such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and advisory services. The bank also engages in wealth management and investment services, generating revenue from asset management fees and commissions. Partnerships with other financial institutions and participation in syndicated loans can further enhance their income. Moreover, BMPS may engage in proprietary trading and investment activities, which can yield additional income, although these are subject to market conditions and regulatory environments.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA exhibits a solid financial foundation with substantial revenue growth and positive cash flow trends. While there are strengths in cost management and operational efficiency, the company faces challenges with profitability consistency and equity stability.

Income Statement

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly from 2023 to 2024, with a significant increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. However, net income has been volatile, and there was a notable decrease in net profit from 2023 to 2024, highlighting profitability concerns despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The return on equity has improved significantly over the years, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficient use of equity. Despite these positives, the equity ratio indicates a relatively low proportion of equity in the asset base, which could pose risks during financial downturns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow position is strong, with consistent positive free cash flow over recent years. The operating cash flow has shown resilience, even when net income was negative, suggesting solid operational efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate has fluctuated, indicating potential volatility in cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.62B	6.56B	6.01B	3.91B	3.86B	3.89B
Gross Profit	4.03B	4.20B	3.94B	3.29B	3.18B	3.18B
EBITDA	1.76B	1.66B	1.93B	-386.55M	503.95M	-1.10B
Net Income	1.68B	1.95B	2.05B	-178.36M	309.51M	-1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.57B	122.60B	122.61B	120.24B	137.87B	150.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.79B	14.40B	15.58B	13.60B	23.05B	31.39B
Total Debt	10.16B	12.53B	12.94B	10.30B	12.74B	16.54B
Total Liabilities	114.10B	110.95B	112.63B	112.37B	131.69B	144.57B
Stockholders Equity	11.47B	11.65B	9.98B	7.86B	6.17B	5.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-381.50M	-860.42M	1.66B	8.32B	-662.86M	-209.91M
Operating Cash Flow	-373.10M	-792.00M	1.77B	8.38B	-551.54M	-64.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.00M	39.15M	7.08M	44.09M	-69.07M	-6.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.08B	-315.03M	-2.73M	2.37B	42.93M	-331.00K

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.69, above the 50-day MA of 8.75, and above the 200-day MA of 7.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMPS.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPE	79 Outperform	€23.48B	12.91	13.13%	6.09%	5.23%	3.54%
BAMI	72 Outperform	€18.62B	8.97	16.45%	8.25%	2.23%	72.08%
FBK	71 Outperform	€12.17B	18.80	32.83%	3.35%	2.97%	4.64%
BMED	71 Outperform	€13.39B	11.47	26.99%	6.35%	-5.10%	26.87%
MB	70 Outperform	€15.47B	13.15	11.91%	6.61%	-0.72%	6.52%
BMPS	69 Neutral	€26.00B	5.57	15.13%	9.69%	-5.31%	-35.03%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%