Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA (BMPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €27.96B
• Dividend Yield: 9.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 35.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.64
• Revenue Growth: -5.31%
• EPS Growth: -35.03%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 16,678
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 3,038,418,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,830,432
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,845,048
• PEG Ratio: -0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €8.48
• Price Target Upside: -3.85% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: €9.50 ▲(7.71% Upside)

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA's overall stock score is driven by its strong valuation, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield indicating potential undervaluation and income opportunities. Financial performance is solid, though challenges with profitability consistency and equity stability persist. Technical analysis suggests short-term bearish momentum, but potential for a bullish reversal exists.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistent positive free cash flow and resilient operating cash flow indicate durable internal funding for lending, capital expenditures and distributions. Reliable cash generation reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic investments without dependence on volatile market funding.

Improving return on equity

A sustained improvement in ROE signals stronger core profitability and more efficient capital use, enabling the bank to generate higher returns from a given equity base. This supports capacity to rebuild buffers and fund growth without excessive new capital issuance.

Recent revenue growth and margin strength

Revenue recovery combined with robust gross margins points to durable demand and effective cost control in core retail and commercial operations. Sustained top-line improvement underpins long-term earnings potential and resilience against cyclical pressures.

Negative Factors

Volatile net income

Significant volatility and a recent net profit decline weaken earnings predictability, complicate capital planning and may constrain dividend and reinvestment policies. Persistent swings reduce investor confidence in sustained profitability.

Relatively low equity ratio

A low equity share versus assets means less loss-absorbing capacity and greater sensitivity to credit or market shocks. Structurally thinner capital buffers increase regulatory and funding risk, forcing conservative lending or expensive capital raises in stress periods.

Recent negative revenue and EPS trends

Declining revenue and sharply negative EPS growth point to structural headwinds or one-off pressures limiting earnings power. Continued negative growth impairs internal capital formation, reduces buffer for credit losses and constrains long-term strategic initiatives.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, and Wealth Management segments. It offers funding and lending services, insurance products, financial advisory, and electronic payment services; financial and non-financial services; wealth management and financial planning services; consultancy services, such as tax planning, real estate, art, and legal advisory; fiduciary and trust services; and digital banking services. The company also provides leasing and factoring services for businesses, artisans, and professionals; and medium-and long-term credit facilities, corporate finance, capital markets, and structured finance services. In addition, it offers investment banking products and services; foreign banking services; and custody and deposit services for dairy products on behalf of third parties. Further, the company develops and manages ICT and telecommunication systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 1,368 branches, 126 specialized centers, and 2,621 ATM machines in Italy; 1 operational branch in Shanghai; and 8 representative offices in the areas of Europe, North Africa, India, and China. The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.

How the Company Makes Money

BMPS generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the bank earns money from net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank provides various loan products, including mortgages, personal loans, and business financing, which contribute significantly to its interest income. Additionally, BMPS earns fees from various banking services, such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and advisory services. The bank also engages in wealth management and investment services, generating revenue from asset management fees and commissions. Partnerships with other financial institutions and participation in syndicated loans can further enhance their income. Moreover, BMPS may engage in proprietary trading and investment activities, which can yield additional income, although these are subject to market conditions and regulatory environments.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA shows strong revenue growth and positive cash flow trends. However, profitability consistency and equity stability pose challenges, necessitating improvements in net profit margins and balance sheet strength.

Income Statement

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly from 2023 to 2024, with a significant increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. However, net income has been volatile, and there was a notable decrease in net profit from 2023 to 2024, highlighting profitability concerns despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The return on equity has improved significantly over the years, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficient use of equity. Despite these positives, the equity ratio indicates a relatively low proportion of equity in the asset base, which could pose risks during financial downturns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow position is strong, with consistent positive free cash flow over recent years. The operating cash flow has shown resilience, even when net income was negative, suggesting solid operational efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate has fluctuated, indicating potential volatility in cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.62B	6.56B	6.01B	3.91B	3.86B	3.89B
Gross Profit	4.03B	4.20B	3.94B	3.29B	3.18B	3.18B
EBITDA	1.76B	1.66B	1.93B	-386.55M	503.95M	-1.10B
Net Income	1.68B	1.95B	2.05B	-178.36M	309.51M	-1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.57B	122.60B	122.61B	120.24B	137.87B	150.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.79B	14.40B	15.58B	13.60B	23.05B	31.39B
Total Debt	10.16B	12.53B	12.94B	10.30B	12.74B	16.54B
Total Liabilities	114.10B	110.95B	112.63B	112.37B	131.69B	144.57B
Stockholders Equity	11.47B	11.65B	9.98B	7.86B	6.17B	5.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-381.50M	-860.42M	1.66B	8.32B	-662.86M	-209.91M
Operating Cash Flow	-373.10M	-792.00M	1.77B	8.38B	-551.54M	-64.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.00M	39.15M	7.08M	44.09M	-69.07M	-6.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.08B	-315.03M	-2.73M	2.37B	42.93M	-331.00K

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMPS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.96, above the 50-day MA of 8.47, and above the 200-day MA of 7.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:BMPS.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPE	79 Outperform	€23.87B	10.59	13.13%	6.09%	5.23%	3.54%
BAMI	72 Outperform	€19.36B	8.07	16.45%	8.25%	2.23%	72.08%
FBK	71 Outperform	€13.77B	21.18	32.83%	3.35%	2.97%	4.64%
BMED	71 Outperform	€14.56B	12.46	26.99%	6.35%	-5.10%	26.87%
MB	70 Outperform	€13.99B	10.81	11.91%	6.61%	-0.72%	6.52%
BMPS	69 Neutral	€27.96B	6.88	15.13%	9.69%	-5.31%	-35.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%