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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA
(BMPS)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
€12.50
▲(36.46% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/15/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong recent profitability and better leverage) tempered by historically volatile earnings/cash flows. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but momentum looks stretched (high RSI/Stoch). Valuation is a positive contributor with a low P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage and capital base
Leverage falling below 1.0 and a rising equity base materially strengthen regulatory buffers and solvency. This enhances the bank's capacity to absorb loan losses, lowers funding vulnerability, and supports sustainable lending growth and capital-return flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings volatility
Revenue swings reduce predictability of earnings and strain strategic planning. Even with improved margins, sustained volatility can force earnings to fluctuate with loan demand, rates or trading results, complicating provisioning, capital planning and investors' ability to assess medium-term performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved leverage and capital base
Leverage falling below 1.0 and a rising equity base materially strengthen regulatory buffers and solvency. This enhances the bank's capacity to absorb loan losses, lowers funding vulnerability, and supports sustainable lending growth and capital-return flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA (BMPS) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€35.27B
Dividend Yield7.56%
Average Volume (3M)35.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth10.29%
EPS Growth-0.75%
CountryIT
Employees20,045
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding3,038,418,200
10 Day Avg. Volume24,830,432
30 Day Avg. Volume35,845,048
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)3.41
P/FCF Ratio9.95
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.08Price Target Upside9.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)€7.96B
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large...
How the Company Makes Money
BMPS generates earnings mainly through traditional banking and fee-based financial services. (1) Net interest income: the bank earns interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., mortgages, consumer loans, SME/corporate lending, and s...
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.03B | 4.74B | 6.56B | 6.01B | 3.91B | 3.86B |
| Gross Profit | 5.91B | 4.34B | 4.20B | 3.94B | 3.29B | 3.18B |
| EBITDA | 2.81B | 2.26B | 1.66B | 1.93B | -386.55M | 503.95M |
| Net Income | 3.21B | 3.04B | 1.95B | 2.05B | -178.36M | 309.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 241.45B | 129.34B | 122.60B | 122.61B | 120.24B | 137.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.40B | 15.02B | 14.40B | 15.58B | 13.60B | 23.05B |
| Total Debt | 45.29B | 11.47B | 12.53B | 12.94B | 10.30B | 12.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 210.74B | 116.11B | 110.95B | 112.63B | 112.37B | 131.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.42B | 13.22B | 11.65B | 9.98B | 7.86B | 6.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.77B | 1.62B | -860.42M | 1.66B | 8.32B | -662.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.73B | 1.74B | -792.00M | 1.77B | 8.38B | -551.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | 824.66M | 39.15M | 7.08M | 44.09M | -69.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.25B | -1.18B | -315.03M | -2.73M | 2.37B | 42.93M |
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Technical Analysis
Positive
9.16
Price Trends
10.24
Positive
8.82
Positive
8.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Positive
70.59
Negative
70.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:BMPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.16, below the 50-day MA of 10.24, and above the 200-day MA of 8.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:BMPS.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €113.90B | 11.42 | 14.41% | 6.08% | -8.72% | 8.09% | |
76 Outperform | €125.48B | 10.91 | 16.86% | 4.15% | -0.36% | 22.62% | |
74 Outperform | €28.80B | 13.02 | 13.48% | 6.09% | 10.56% | 10.67% | |
73 Outperform | €6.45B | 11.79 | 13.87% | 6.23% | -10.60% | -22.83% | |
71 Outperform | €23.56B | 7.67 | 18.92% | 8.25% | -10.25% | 8.52% | |
69 Neutral | €35.27B | 8.25 | 19.13% | 9.69% | 10.29% | -0.75% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
IT:BMPS
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA
11.38
4.90
75.62%
IT:UCG
UniCredit SpA
79.22
20.81
35.62%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
15.35
5.91
62.64%
IT:BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
13.54
6.18
84.04%
IT:CE
Credito Emiliano SPA Credem
18.40
6.33
52.46%
IT:ISP
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
6.28
1.55
32.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.