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Intesa Sanpaolo Spa (ISNPY)
OTHER OTC:ISNPY
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Intesa Sanpaolo
(OTC:ISNPY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
â–²(21.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/02/26
The score is driven by strong technical uptrend signals and supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high yield), reinforced by a positive earnings call with clear profitability and capital targets. Offsetting these positives, financial performance is held back by materially weak/volatile cash flow and rising leverage risk.
Positive Factors
Resilient fee and insurance revenue
Strong, recurring fee and bancassurance revenues diversify earnings away from interest-rate sensitive NII. This steadier revenue base supports margin stability and cash generation, enabling investment in growth and tech even if lending spreads compress over the medium term.
Solid capital position
A CET1 ratio materially above the 12.5% target provides a durable buffer for regulatory shocks and strategic actions. It permits shareholder distributions while preserving room for loan growth and buffers against credit deterioration, strengthening franchise stability over months.
Material technology and efficiency programme
Large, committed tech investment and full cloud migration should lower long‑run operating costs, speed product rollout, and improve scalability. These structural capabilities support cross‑sell, digital distribution and margin improvement if execution stays on plan.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile cash generation
Two consecutive years of negative operating and free cash flow erode internal funding capacity, increasing reliance on external financing or asset sales. That weakens liquidity resilience and constrains flexibility for lending, buybacks, or unexpected credit losses.
Rising leverage
A notable rise in leverage increases sensitivity to funding costs and credit shocks, reducing capital buffers and strategic optionality. Persisting this trend could elevate regulatory scrutiny, limit loan growth capacity and raise funding costs over the medium term.
Very high shareholder payout policy
Committing nearly all earnings to distributions leaves little retained capital to absorb shocks, fund strategic investments or respond to regulatory hits (e.g., budget law effects). That policy reduces balance sheet flexibility and increases execution risk if earnings underperform.
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$118.36B
Dividend Yield5.46%
Average Volume (3M)38.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-9.02%
EPS Growth9.83%
CountryUS
Employees91,825
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding2,902,231,700
10 Day Avg. Volume67,234
30 Day Avg. Volume38,031
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio-0.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.03
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)4.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.21B
Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. provides various financial products and services primarily in Italy. It operates through six segments Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance. The company offers lending and deposit products; corporate, investment banking, and public finance services; industrial credit, factoring, and leasing services; asset management solutions; life and non-life insurance products; and bancassurance and pension fund, and fiduciary services. It also provides consumer credit and E-money; wealth management and private banking services. The company serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, non-profit organizations, corporates and financial institutions, public administration, private clients and high net worth individuals, institutional clientele, and other customers. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is headquartered in Turin, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntesa Sanpaolo generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is net interest income, which comes from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. Additionally, the bank earns substantial fees from services such as asset management, investment banking, and advisory services. Transaction fees from payment services and commissions on wealth management products also contribute to its revenue. The bank has established significant partnerships with various corporations and financial institutions, allowing it to enhance its service offerings and expand its client base. Furthermore, the bank’s focus on digital transformation and sustainable finance initiatives has positioned it to tap into new revenue opportunities while addressing evolving market demands.
Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive message: Intesa Sanpaolo reported record 2025 results (EUR 9.3bn net income), strengthened capital (CET1 13.9%), near‑zero NPLs, record fee/in‑surance income, and an ambitious multi‑year plan with clear numeric targets (net income > EUR 11.5bn, ROE > 20%, cost/income ~37%). Management emphasizes technology (isytech), cost savings (EUR 1.6bn program), and sizable growth initiatives (EUR 370bn lending, +2.5m clients, +EUR 200bn customer assets). Key challenges flagged include pressure from lower Euribor on NII, the impact of the Italian Budget Law (capital and tax effects), substantial shareholder distribution (95% payout in 2026) and execution uncertainty around international expansion (Isywealth Europe) despite conservative planning. Overall, the positive operational and capital trends and the scale of the strategic plan materially outweigh the highlighted risks, which are largely framed as manageable or deliberately conservative.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Income and Profitability
2025 net income reached a record EUR 9.3 billion (highest ever); net income up ~8% year‑over‑year. Management reports best‑in‑class cost/income ratio and sustained operating margin with strong revenue performance despite lower market rates.
Strong Capital Position
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio rose to 13.9% (would be ~13.2% after the planned July buyback). Management expects CET1 to remain comfortably above the 12.5% target through the plan driven by internal capital generation.
Near‑Zero NPLs and Low Cost of Risk
NPL stock reduced to approximately EUR 0.8 billion in bad loans; bank claims '0 NPL bank' status. Reported cost of risk (adjusted for additional Q4 provisions) ~26 basis points, with low expected NPL inflows going forward.
Record Commissions and Insurance Income
2025 saw record commissions and insurance income; Q4 was the best quarter ever for commissions. Fees grew meaningfully in 2025 (management cites strong resilience of non‑interest revenue).
Shareholder Returns and Liquidity Actions
2025 distributions: EUR 8.8 billion to shareholders (noted as ~50% more than prior plan target). Announced 2025 cash dividend up 10% year‑on‑year and a EUR 2.3 billion buyback in July; new policy raises cash payout to 75% + 20% buyback (95% total) for 2026.
Ambitious and Conservative 4‑Year Business Plan Targets
Targets by 2029: net income > EUR 11.5 billion, sustainable ROE > 20%, cost/income ratio ~37%. Plan emphasizes cost reduction, conservative revenue growth and low cost of risk while maintaining strong capital and liquidity.
Material Growth and Deployment Targets
Plan metrics include: add ~2.5 million clients, provide > EUR 370 billion of medium/long‑term lending, grow customer financial assets by EUR 200 billion (EUR 100 billion in AUM), recruit ~3,700 additional people for Wealth Management, and Isybank to add ~1 million clients.
Technology & Efficiency Enablers
isytech cloud migration committed to 100% of applications in the cloud by 2029; planned EUR 10+ billion tech investments already deployed. Cost savings program targets EUR 1.6 billion of savings enabling a net EUR 200 million absolute cost reduction while funding growth and investments.
Hedging & NII Support
Management expects net interest income to grow in 2026 vs 2025 (despite further Euribor reduction), helped by hedging facilities and loan/deposit growth. Hedging facility contribution guidance: ~EUR 450–500 million in 2026, then ~EUR 300 million p.a. thereafter. NII sensitivity: ~EUR 300 million per 50 bps rise in rates.
Social & Sustainability Commitments
Plan includes an additional EUR 1 billion contribution to social impact and commitment to allocate 30% of total medium/long‑term new lending to sustainable financing; management highlights continued leadership in social impact.
Negative Updates
Interest Rate Headwinds and Euribor Decline
Significant drop in Euribor materially pressured NII; although management expects NII growth in 2026, assumptions include an additional ~20 bps Euribor reduction in 2026 and flat rates thereafter—a source of risk to NII if rates remain subdued longer.
Impact of Italian Budget Law on Capital and Taxes
Italian Budget Law creates a ~EUR 570 million hit to CET1 which management said required slower loan origination in Q4 and accelerated adjustments. Management also assumes a higher tax/levy load (tax rate ~32%) and flags increased banking/insurance industry costs—pressures to profitability and capital.
Q4 Managerial Derisking Costs and One‑offs
Significant managerial actions in Q4 included additional provisions and accelerated investments/training/advertising; adjusted cost of risk was 26 bps after these provisions. These one‑time actions strengthened the balance sheet but moderated near‑term comparatives.
High Payout Ratio May Constrain Flexibility
Very high distributable policy (75% cash payout + 20% buyback = 95% total payout in 2026) could limit retained capital for opportunistic investments or larger-than-expected shocks despite management's view CET1 remains strong.
Execution & Uncertainty in International Expansion (Isywealth Europe)
Isywealth Europe is a strategic initiative with EUR 200 million of costs embedded but management assumed zero revenues in the plan for this project; the mid‑term revenue path is uncertain and raises execution risk despite claims of 'zero execution risk.'
Conservative Guidance May Understate Upside / Mask Risks
Management repeatedly emphasized very conservative assumptions (fees, NII, market performance, pricing), which can understate upside but also reflects prudence—conservative assumptions may limit near‑term transparency on true growth potential.
Operational Costs Front‑Loading and Inflation Uncertainty
Q4 acceleration of investments (training, advertising) and planned hiring (3,700 advisors; 6,000 hires to offset >12,000 exits) create timing effects; management assumes ~2% inflation but notes cost dynamics depend on execution and could be higher.
Zero NPL Strategy Could Limit Risk Appetite
A deliberate zero‑NPL stance and emphasis on derisking reduces provisioning volatility but may constrain higher‑risk lending opportunities and could limit loan yield expansion if management keeps risk appetite overly conservative.
Company Guidance
Management guidance and the new 4‑year plan forecast 2026 net income of about €10bn and a 2029 target of >€11.5bn with a sustainable return on equity above 20% and a cost‑income ratio of 37%; 2025 results were net income €9.3bn, CET1 13.9% (13.2% pro‑July buyback) and bad loans reduced to ~€0.8bn (zero‑NPL status) with an adjusted cost of risk of 26bp. The group plans to return ~€50bn to shareholders over the plan (annual cash dividend = 75% of net income + a 20% buyback = 95% payout), will launch a €2.3bn buyback in July 2025, and assumes a minimum CET1 target of 12.5% while keeping strong liquidity. Industrial targets include adding 2.5m clients, >€370bn of medium/long‑term new lending, +€200bn customer financial assets (of which +€100bn AUM), hiring ~3,700 advisers (and >6,000 youth hires) while executing >12,000 exits to realize €570m run‑rate personnel savings; cost initiatives aim for €1.6bn savings (net €200m reduction) including €200m from insourcing and €200m of Isywealth Europe investment (revenues conservatively assumed = €0). Technology is a key enabler (≈€10bn tech base, isytech to be rolled out to 100% cloud by 2029), hedging/portfolio contributions are expected to add ~€450–500m in 2026 and ≈€300m p.a. thereafter, NII sensitivity is ~€300m per 50bp, and the plan commits to social impact (€1bn) and ~€500bn contribution to the real economy with 30% of new medium/long‑term lending earmarked for sustainable financing.Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid (income statement score 74) with strong net income and operating margins, but this is tempered by rising leverage (balance sheet score 63) and especially weak/volatile cash generation with negative operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024 (cash flow score 34).Income Statement
Profitability is solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income of ~$8.7B and healthy operating profitability (EBIT margin ~27%). Net profit margin is positive but compressed versus 2023, and revenue declined ~9% in 2024 after growth in 2023—suggesting recent top-line pressure despite strong earnings.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows moderate-to-elevated leverage for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity rising to ~2.25x in 2024 (up from ~1.47x in 2023). Equity is sizable (~$65B) and return on equity improved to ~13%, but the higher leverage trend increases risk if credit conditions or funding costs worsen.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weak spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in both 2023 and 2024 (and materially worse in 2024), indicating volatility in cash conversion. While 2022 showed exceptionally strong positive cash flow, the sharp swing to large outflows in the last two years reduces confidence in near-term cash stability.34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.03B | 44.81B | 41.01B | 25.44B | 24.38B | 14.31B |
| Gross Profit | 28.68B | 28.29B | 25.42B | 21.57B | 21.90B | 14.31B |
| EBITDA | 14.54B | 13.77B | 12.40B | 7.76B | 6.77B | 5.92B |
| Net Income | 9.12B | 8.67B | 7.72B | 4.38B | 4.18B | 3.28B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 943.45B | 933.28B | 963.57B | 975.68B | 1.07T | 1.00T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.39B | 99.87B | 98.83B | 122.09B | 147.09B | 89.28B |
| Total Debt | 141.37B | 146.57B | 142.13B | 98.45B | 101.22B | 107.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 876.79B | 867.96B | 899.44B | 913.86B | 1.00T | 936.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 66.52B | 65.18B | 63.96B | 61.10B | 63.77B | 65.87B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -41.86B | -18.99B | 100.43B | 6.91B | -3.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -40.19B | -17.34B | 102.28B | 8.80B | -2.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.25B | -588.00M | -538.00M | -2.23B | -357.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.19B | -5.59B | -3.52B | -5.59B | 2.68B |
Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis
Positive
38.83
Price Trends
41.65
Positive
39.92
Positive
37.43
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
50.84
Neutral
55.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.84, below the 50-day MA of 41.65, and above the 200-day MA of 37.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ISNPY.
Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $85.50B | 11.92 | 12.16% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
72 Outperform | $118.36B | 11.23 | 15.94% | 5.46% | -9.02% | 9.83% | |
72 Outperform | $87.90B | 13.12 | 11.99% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
71 Outperform | $154.21B | 19.28 | 14.06% | 3.03% | -1.78% | 0.65% | |
69 Neutral | $109.06B | 18.00 | 16.66% | 0.85% | 10.85% | 7.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $110.56B | 15.77 | 10.22% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
ISNPY
Intesa Sanpaolo
41.34
13.25
47.16%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
31.85
1.36
4.45%
IBN
Icici Bank
30.51
2.82
10.17%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.87
3.23
57.27%
PNC
PNC Financial
212.35
27.18
14.68%
USB
US Bancorp
54.66
9.31
20.52%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.