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Intesa Sanpaolo
(OTC:ISNPY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
â–²(4.41% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (stronger profitability and improved leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with upgraded guidance and sizable shareholder returns. Supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield) adds to the appeal, while the main constraint is the historically volatile cash flow profile and execution/regulatory uncertainty tied to the Monte dei Paschi transaction.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability and guidance
Sustained margin expansion and an upgraded 2026 net income target signal stronger underlying earnings power. Higher recurring profitability supports durable cash returns, reinvestment in technology, and resilience across cycles, improving long-term capital allocation and shareholder distributions.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Large multi-year swings in operating and free cash flow reduce predictability of internally funded growth and capital returns. This volatility complicates planning for dividends, buybacks and M&A, and increases reliance on capital markets or asset disposals during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability and guidance
Sustained margin expansion and an upgraded 2026 net income target signal stronger underlying earnings power. Higher recurring profitability supports durable cash returns, reinvestment in technology, and resilience across cycles, improving long-term capital allocation and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive factors
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$133.15B
Dividend Yield5.79%
Average Volume (3M)43.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-9.77%
EPS Growth15.55%
CountryUS
Employees100,356
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)19.44
Shares Outstanding2,947,077,000
10 Day Avg. Volume81,136
30 Day Avg. Volume43,768
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio0.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)4.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.90B
Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA engages in the provision of financial products and banking services. It operates through the following segments: Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate and Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Private Banking, Asset ...
How the Company Makes Money
Intesa Sanpaolo makes money primarily by earning interest income and fee-based income from providing banking, investment, and insurance-related services.
1) Net interest income (core banking spread): The bank collects deposits and other funding (...
Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed broadly positive operating and financial momentum: record H1 and Q2 profitability, strong commercial trends (loans, deposits, customer assets), improved margins and an upgraded 2026 net income target. Cost efficiency, top-tier asset quality and robust capital/liquidity metrics support a constructive outlook. Key risks are concentrated on H2 revenue mix volatility (seasonal fees and variable trading income), higher provisions/other charges, and execution/regulatory uncertainty tied to the Monte dei Paschi transaction (including governance frictions and capital assumptions). Overall, the positives — clear revenue and profitability improvement, upgraded guidance, and strong asset quality — outweigh the noted headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Upgraded Guidance
Net income of EUR 5.6 billion for H1 2026 (EUR 2.8 billion in Q2 — best quarter ever); H1 net income +6% YoY and Q2 net income +7% YoY. EPS increased by 9% YoY. Management upgraded 2026 net income guidance to > EUR 10 billion.
Negative Updates
Higher Tax Rate
Effective tax rate increased by ~2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to Italy's budget law, negatively affecting net income growth comparisons.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability and Upgraded Guidance
Net income of EUR 5.6 billion for H1 2026 (EUR 2.8 billion in Q2 — best quarter ever); H1 net income +6% YoY and Q2 net income +7% YoY. EPS increased by 9% YoY. Management upgraded 2026 net income guidance to > EUR 10 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded 2026 net income guidance to above €10.0bn and raised 2026 net interest income guidance to "well above €15.0bn," expecting Q3 NII growth and a marked acceleration in Q4 that should provide a strong starting point for 2027; loan growth is expected to remain positive at the current run rate (loans +5% YoY in H1) with 2027 budget top‑down guidance of ~2–5%. Reported H1 metrics: net income €5.6bn (Q2 €2.8bn), H1 net income +6% YoY (Q2 +7% YoY), EPS +9% YoY, annualized ROE 20% and ROTCE 25%; management plans to return €9.4bn to shareholders in 2026 including a €3.8bn interim dividend in November. Other key figures cited: customer financial assets >€1.5tn, deposits +7%, AUM gross inflows +7% (AUM +€49bn), cost/income ratio 35.9% (operating costs -1%), annualized cost of risk 20bps, NPLs/bad loans near 0 with high coverage, CET1 ~13.1% (noting >13.8% including DTA and a commitment to stay >13% through 2026; post‑MPS roughly 14–14.5%), tech investment €6bn, planned hires >13,000 (including 6,800 from Monte dei Paschi), estimated MPS synergies €2.9bn, a target of €2.0tn customer financial assets by 2029 and >€16bn net income in 2029; management also noted forward rates 50–70bp above plan could add ~€500–600m to 2029 NII and the replicating portfolio contributing ~€500m in 2027 and ~€300m in 2028–29.Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.78B | 46.03B | 44.81B | 41.01B | 25.44B | 24.38B |
| Gross Profit | 24.23B | 34.29B | 28.29B | 25.42B | 21.57B | 21.90B |
| EBITDA | 14.71B | 14.38B | 13.77B | 12.40B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
| Net Income | 9.69B | 9.47B | 8.67B | 7.72B | 4.38B | 4.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 969.07B | 959.48B | 933.28B | 963.57B | 975.68B | 1.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.62B | 37.85B | 99.87B | 98.83B | 122.09B | 147.09B |
| Total Debt | 163.62B | 139.31B | 146.57B | 142.13B | 98.45B | 101.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 899.34B | 894.13B | 867.96B | 899.44B | 913.86B | 1.00T |
| Stockholders Equity | 68.61B | 57.50B | 65.18B | 63.96B | 61.10B | 63.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 17.61B | -41.86B | -18.99B | 100.43B | 6.91B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 17.87B | -40.19B | -17.34B | 102.28B | 8.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -33.95B | -1.25B | -588.00M | -538.00M | -2.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 13.41B | -7.19B | -5.59B | -3.52B | -5.59B |
Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis
Positive
46.93
Price Trends
41.97
Positive
40.34
Positive
40.14
Positive
Market Momentum
1.10
Negative
72.41
Negative
99.97
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.91, above the 50-day MA of 41.97, and above the 200-day MA of 40.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ISNPY.
Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $108.19B | 18.31 | 15.71% | 0.84% | -1.31% | -1.68% | |
74 Outperform | $133.15B | 11.68 | 16.04% | 5.79% | -9.77% | 15.55% | |
73 Outperform | $98.17B | 12.58 | 12.49% | 3.25% | 2.42% | 19.99% | |
72 Outperform | $99.70B | 13.74 | 12.34% | 2.83% | 3.92% | 24.15% | |
70 Outperform | $121.03B | 14.56 | 13.74% | 3.79% | -4.47% | 4.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $127.22B | 14.57 | 12.28% | 1.73% | 2.65% | 54.00% |
* Financial Sector Average
ISNPY
Intesa Sanpaolo
46.89
11.67
33.14%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
23.85
-13.76
-36.59%
IBN
Icici Bank
30.40
-2.12
-6.53%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
10.70
4.62
75.99%
PNC
PNC Financial
255.37
72.82
39.89%
USB
US Bancorp
64.21
21.47
50.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.