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Intesa Sanpaolo Spa (ISNPY)
OTHER OTC:ISNPY

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) AI Stock Analysis

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ISNPY

Intesa Sanpaolo

(OTC:ISNPY)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
â–²(18.47% Upside)
Intesa Sanpaolo's overall stock score reflects a strong earnings call performance and solid technical indicators, which are offset by concerns over financial performance, particularly in cash flow and revenue growth. The valuation is reasonable, and the dividend yield is attractive, but caution is advised due to potential liquidity challenges and high leverage.
Positive Factors
Record Net Income
Achieving record net income indicates strong operational performance and effective cost management, enhancing long-term profitability.
Capital Strength
A higher CET1 ratio strengthens the bank's financial stability, providing a buffer against economic downturns and supporting future growth.
Shareholder Returns
Strong shareholder returns reflect robust cash generation and management's commitment to returning value, enhancing investor confidence.
Negative Factors
Negative Revenue Growth
Negative revenue growth poses a risk to long-term profitability, indicating potential challenges in market demand or competitive positioning.
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to interest rate changes, impacting long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative cash flows highlight potential liquidity constraints, which could affect the bank's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. provides various financial products and services primarily in Italy. It operates through six segments Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance. The company offers lending and deposit products; corporate, investment banking, and public finance services; industrial credit, factoring, and leasing services; asset management solutions; life and non-life insurance products; and bancassurance and pension fund, and fiduciary services. It also provides consumer credit and E-money; wealth management and private banking services. The company serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, non-profit organizations, corporates and financial institutions, public administration, private clients and high net worth individuals, institutional clientele, and other customers. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is headquartered in Turin, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntesa Sanpaolo generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is net interest income, which comes from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. Additionally, the bank earns substantial fees from services such as asset management, investment banking, and advisory services. Transaction fees from payment services and commissions on wealth management products also contribute to its revenue. The bank has established significant partnerships with various corporations and financial institutions, allowing it to enhance its service offerings and expand its client base. Furthermore, the bank’s focus on digital transformation and sustainable finance initiatives has positioned it to tap into new revenue opportunities while addressing evolving market demands.

Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 31, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally strong performance with record-breaking net income, increased capital ratios, and robust shareholder returns. However, challenges in net interest income and potential impacts from new banking taxes were noted as areas of concern.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Net Income
Intesa Sanpaolo delivered its best ever 9-month net income at EUR 7.6 billion, with EUR 2.4 billion in Q3.
Strong Dividend Returns
The bank is returning EUR 8.3 billion to shareholders, including a EUR 3.2 billion interim dividend.
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Increase
Common equity Tier 1 ratio increased by more than 100 basis points to 13.9%, maintaining a strong capital position.
High Return on Equity
Annualized return on equity is at 20%, with earnings per share up by 9%.
Notable Upgrades
Intesa Sanpaolo received a 2-notch upgrade from Fitch and a 1-notch upgrade from DBRS.
Reduced Costs and Asset Quality Maintenance
Operating costs decreased, and asset quality remained excellent with the lowest ever NPL inflows.
Positive Insurance Income Growth
Insurance income grew by 5% in the first 9 months and 7% in Q3 year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Income Challenges
Net interest income faced a decline due to a 90 basis points drop in Euribor and loan repricing effects.
Uncertainty Over Banking Tax
Potential impact from the new banking tax in Italy, though manageable, remains a concern.
Capital Markets Trading Weakness
Capital markets trading results were weak, with negative mark-to-market adjustments.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Intesa Sanpaolo reported a record 9-month net income of EUR 7.6 billion, including EUR 2.4 billion in Q3 alone. The bank's Common Equity Tier 1 ratio rose by over 100 basis points, achieving an annualized return on equity of 20% and a 9% growth in earnings per share. The bank is on track to exceed its full-year net income target of over EUR 9 billion, bolstered by Q4 managerial actions aimed at future profitability. During the first 9 months, commissions and insurance income grew by 5%, with Q3 experiencing a 7% year-on-year increase. The bank recorded over EUR 1.4 trillion in customer financial assets, while operating costs decreased by 1.5%. Intesa Sanpaolo plans to return EUR 8.3 billion to shareholders this year, including a EUR 3.2 billion interim dividend in November, with additional capital distribution to be determined at year-end. This performance underscores the resilience of the bank’s diversified business model, further validated by a 2-notch upgrade from Fitch and a 1-notch upgrade from DBRS.

Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Intesa Sanpaolo shows strong revenue and net income growth, a robust balance sheet with increasing equity and reduced leverage, but faces cash flow challenges that could pose liquidity risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Intesa Sanpaolo demonstrates strong revenue and net income growth over the years. The gross profit margin remains stable, benefiting from consistent revenue growth. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA data for the latest year limits a comprehensive analysis of operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with a significant increase in stockholders' equity, reflecting financial stability. The absence of total debt in 2024 enhances its leverage position. However, the equity ratio has experienced slight fluctuations, indicating variations in asset management.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Intesa Sanpaolo's cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in recent years. Despite a substantial operating cash flow in 2022, the trend reversed in 2023 and 2024, suggesting potential liquidity management issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue42.03B44.81B41.01B25.44B24.38B14.31B
Gross Profit28.68B28.29B25.42B21.57B21.90B14.31B
EBITDA14.54B13.77B12.40B7.76B6.77B5.92B
Net Income9.12B8.67B7.72B4.38B4.18B3.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets943.45B933.28B963.57B975.68B1.07T1.00T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.39B99.87B98.83B122.09B147.09B89.28B
Total Debt141.37B146.57B142.13B208.43B101.22B107.15B
Total Liabilities876.79B867.96B899.44B913.86B1.00T936.29B
Stockholders Equity66.52B65.18B63.96B61.10B63.77B65.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-41.86B-18.99B100.43B6.91B-3.61B
Operating Cash Flow0.00-40.19B-17.34B102.28B8.80B-2.17B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-1.25B-588.00M-538.00M-2.23B-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-7.19B-5.59B-3.52B-5.59B2.68B

Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.83
Price Trends
50DMA
38.70
Positive
100DMA
38.02
Positive
200DMA
34.74
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.85
Negative
RSI
68.70
Neutral
STOCH
98.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.80, above the 50-day MA of 38.70, and above the 200-day MA of 34.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ISNPY.

Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$85.40B12.5811.69%3.77%2.91%33.77%
73
Outperform
$170.64B22.0114.17%3.03%-1.78%0.65%
72
Outperform
$120.21B12.2014.94%5.46%-9.02%9.83%
71
Outperform
$83.72B13.7811.31%3.11%1.79%30.93%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
$90.89B13.659.14%2.31%-2.84%25.48%
63
Neutral
$108.40B17.2017.41%0.85%10.85%7.98%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ISNPY
Intesa Sanpaolo
41.49
18.80
82.86%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
36.40
4.35
13.57%
IBN
Icici Bank
30.03
-0.28
-0.92%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
7.42
2.52
51.43%
PNC
PNC Financial
213.48
25.66
13.66%
USB
US Bancorp
54.94
8.04
17.14%

Intesa Sanpaolo Corporate Events

Intesa Sanpaolo’s Earnings Call: Record Income & Strong Returns
Nov 4, 2025

Intesa Sanpaolo’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health, marked by record-breaking net income and strong shareholder returns. The sentiment was largely positive, although there were some concerns about challenges in net interest income and potential impacts from new banking taxes.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 23, 2025