Intesa Sanpaolo Spa (ISNPY)
OTHER OTC:ISNPY
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Intesa Sanpaolo
(OTC:ISNPY)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
â–²(15.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
Score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (stronger 2025 profitability and lower leverage) and a constructive, target-backed earnings call. Valuation is exceptionally attractive (very low P/E and high yield), while technical signals are mixed and cash-flow volatility remains the main fundamental risk.
Positive Factors
Record Profitability
Sustained record net income demonstrates durable earnings power and improved operating leverage. Higher recurring profits strengthen internal capital generation, supporting targets (2026–2029) and the bank's ability to fund lending, dividends, and buybacks without sole reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Volatility
Multi-year swings in operating cash flow and free cash flow undermine predictability of internally funded growth and shareholder returns. Persistent volatility can force reliance on balance-sheet adjustments or limit reinvestment, raising execution and funding risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Profitability
Sustained record net income demonstrates durable earnings power and improved operating leverage. Higher recurring profits strengthen internal capital generation, supporting targets (2026–2029) and the bank's ability to fund lending, dividends, and buybacks without sole reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$121.64B
Dividend Yield5.46%
Average Volume (3M)139.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.2
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-5.03%
EPS Growth15.85%
CountryUS
Employees91,825
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.58
Shares Outstanding2,902,231,700
10 Day Avg. Volume212,416
30 Day Avg. Volume139,471
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio0.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.14
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.02B
Intesa Sanpaolo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. provides various financial products and services primarily in Italy. It operates through six segments Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking...
How the Company Makes Money
Intesa Sanpaolo primarily earns money through a mix of net interest income, fee and commission income, insurance-related income, and trading/financial results. (1) Net interest income: The bank collects deposits and other funding at a cost and len...
Intesa Sanpaolo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive message: Intesa Sanpaolo reported record 2025 results (EUR 9.3bn net income), strengthened capital (CET1 13.9%), near‑zero NPLs, record fee/in‑surance income, and an ambitious multi‑year plan with clear numeric targets (net income > EUR 11.5bn, ROE > 20%, cost/income ~37%). Management emphasizes technology (isytech), cost savings (EUR 1.6bn program), and sizable growth initiatives (EUR 370bn lending, +2.5m clients, +EUR 200bn customer assets). Key challenges flagged include pressure from lower Euribor on NII, the impact of the Italian Budget Law (capital and tax effects), substantial shareholder distribution (95% payout in 2026) and execution uncertainty around international expansion (Isywealth Europe) despite conservative planning. Overall, the positive operational and capital trends and the scale of the strategic plan materially outweigh the highlighted risks, which are largely framed as manageable or deliberately conservative.Positive Updates
Record Net Income and Profitability
2025 net income reached a record EUR 9.3 billion (highest ever); net income up ~8% year‑over‑year. Management reports best‑in‑class cost/income ratio and sustained operating margin with strong revenue performance despite lower market rates.
Negative Updates
Interest Rate Headwinds and Euribor Decline
Significant drop in Euribor materially pressured NII; although management expects NII growth in 2026, assumptions include an additional ~20 bps Euribor reduction in 2026 and flat rates thereafter—a source of risk to NII if rates remain subdued longer.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Income and Profitability
2025 net income reached a record EUR 9.3 billion (highest ever); net income up ~8% year‑over‑year. Management reports best‑in‑class cost/income ratio and sustained operating margin with strong revenue performance despite lower market rates.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guidance and the new 4‑year plan forecast 2026 net income of about €10bn and a 2029 target of >€11.5bn with a sustainable return on equity above 20% and a cost‑income ratio of 37%; 2025 results were net income €9.3bn, CET1 13.9% (13.2% pro‑July buyback) and bad loans reduced to ~€0.8bn (zero‑NPL status) with an adjusted cost of risk of 26bp. The group plans to return ~€50bn to shareholders over the plan (annual cash dividend = 75% of net income + a 20% buyback = 95% payout), will launch a €2.3bn buyback in July 2025, and assumes a minimum CET1 target of 12.5% while keeping strong liquidity. Industrial targets include adding 2.5m clients, >€370bn of medium/long‑term new lending, +€200bn customer financial assets (of which +€100bn AUM), hiring ~3,700 advisers (and >6,000 youth hires) while executing >12,000 exits to realize €570m run‑rate personnel savings; cost initiatives aim for €1.6bn savings (net €200m reduction) including €200m from insourcing and €200m of Isywealth Europe investment (revenues conservatively assumed = €0). Technology is a key enabler (≈€10bn tech base, isytech to be rolled out to 100% cloud by 2029), hedging/portfolio contributions are expected to add ~€450–500m in 2026 and ≈€300m p.a. thereafter, NII sensitivity is ~€300m per 50bp, and the plan commits to social impact (€1bn) and ~€500bn contribution to the real economy with 30% of new medium/long‑term lending earmarked for sustainable financing.Intesa Sanpaolo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.03B | 46.03B | 44.81B | 41.01B | 25.44B | 24.38B |
| Gross Profit | 28.68B | 34.29B | 28.29B | 25.42B | 21.57B | 21.90B |
| EBITDA | 14.54B | 14.38B | 13.77B | 12.40B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
| Net Income | 9.12B | 9.47B | 8.67B | 7.72B | 4.38B | 4.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 943.45B | 959.48B | 933.28B | 963.57B | 975.68B | 1.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.39B | 37.85B | 99.87B | 98.83B | 122.09B | 147.09B |
| Total Debt | 141.37B | 139.31B | 146.57B | 142.13B | 98.45B | 101.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 876.79B | 894.13B | 867.96B | 899.44B | 913.86B | 1.00T |
| Stockholders Equity | 66.52B | 57.50B | 65.18B | 63.96B | 61.10B | 63.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 17.61B | -41.86B | -18.99B | 100.43B | 6.91B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 17.87B | -40.19B | -17.34B | 102.28B | 8.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -33.95B | -1.25B | -588.00M | -538.00M | -2.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 13.41B | -7.19B | -5.59B | -3.52B | -5.59B |
Intesa Sanpaolo Technical Analysis
Positive
38.83
Price Trends
38.60
Positive
39.71
Positive
38.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.98
Negative
69.15
Neutral
96.36
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ISNPY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.69, above the 50-day MA of 38.60, and above the 200-day MA of 38.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ISNPY.
Intesa Sanpaolo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $121.64B | 2.24 | 14.41% | 5.46% | -5.03% | 15.85% | |
74 Outperform | $87.18B | 10.39 | 12.22% | 3.77% | 2.43% | 18.20% | |
73 Outperform | $96.97B | 14.67 | 15.75% | 0.85% | 1.39% | 0.34% | |
72 Outperform | $129.68B | 4.81 | 13.60% | 3.03% | 0.81% | 1.99% | |
71 Outperform | $89.32B | 12.15 | 11.98% | 3.11% | 3.47% | 21.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $104.62B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -8.02% | 22.45% |
* Financial Sector Average
ISNPY
Intesa Sanpaolo
41.90
10.93
35.30%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
25.67
-8.72
-25.36%
IBN
Icici Bank
26.74
-5.37
-16.73%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.66
3.69
74.25%
PNC
PNC Financial
219.29
57.99
35.95%
USB
US Bancorp
55.31
14.89
36.82%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.