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Inseego (INSG)
:INSG

Inseego (INSG) AI Stock Analysis

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Inseego

(NASDAQ:INSG)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(15.65%Upside)
Inseego's overall score is primarily constrained by its financial performance, which shows significant challenges. While technical analysis and valuation offer a mixed outlook, recent earnings call insights and corporate events provide some optimism for future improvements.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Inseego exceeded expectations, driven by strong mobile solutions and stable, high-margin services.
Leadership
Announces new CEO, Juho Sarvikas, who served most recently as Qualcomm’s VP and President of North America, bringing strong leadership and highly relevant experience.
Strategic Focus
CEO Juho Sarvikas' strategic focus on SaaS and FWA growth strengthens long-term value proposition.
Negative Factors
FWA Performance
FWA headwinds from customer inventory management offset strong performance.
Market Pressure
Lowering estimates driven by pressure in Mobile from concentrated carrier exposure.
Strategy Execution
Strategy execution still unproven, leading to a more modest ramp ahead than prior expectation.

Inseego (INSG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Inseego Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInseego Corp. (INSG) is a leading provider of 5G and intelligent IoT device-to-cloud solutions. The company operates primarily in the telecommunications and technology sectors, offering a range of products including mobile hotspots, fixed wireless access solutions, and IoT solutions that enhance connectivity for enterprises, service providers, and consumers. Inseego's products are designed to provide secure and reliable internet access, enabling advanced communications and improved productivity across various industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyInseego makes money through the sale of its hardware and software solutions, primarily focusing on wireless connectivity devices such as mobile hotspots, routers, and gateways. Revenue is generated from both direct sales to consumers and businesses as well as through partnerships with telecommunications carriers who bundle Inseego's devices with their service offerings. Additionally, Inseego offers subscription-based cloud management services for IoT solutions, providing ongoing revenue from software and data management services. Strategic partnerships with major carriers and technology companies are significant contributors to its earnings, enhancing its market reach and facilitating large-scale deployments of its solutions.

Inseego Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -13.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. Highlights included record gross margins, successful technological achievements, and significant debt reduction. However, a slow start to the year due to delayed promotions and a concentrated customer base posed challenges. While there are positive strides in technology and revenue growth, these are balanced by the hurdles in the revenue start and customer concentration.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gross Margin Achievement
Q1 2025 non-GAAP gross margin percentage increased to a record 47.5%, driven by sequential margin expansion in both product and services and a favorable revenue mix.
Successful 5G Advanced Data Call
Inseego was the first OEM to make a 5G Advanced 3GPP Release 18 data call with the new Qualcomm Dragonwing Gen 4 Elite FWA platform, showcasing engineering capabilities and strong partnership with Qualcomm.
Increase in Mobile Revenue
Mobile revenue grew more than 16% year-over-year, even with a late start to a larger carrier customer's promotion.
Significant Debt Reduction
The company completed a meaningful reduction of total debt by paying off $15 million on convertible notes, reducing total debt to $41 million.
Growth in Services Revenue
Services revenue grew nearly 50% year-over-year, driven by the strength of the Inseego Subscribe SaaS platform.
Negative Updates
Slow Start to the Year
Q1 2025 presented a slow start on a revenue basis due to record levels in Q3 and Q4 2024, end of a special national mobile hotspot program, and temporarily lower FWA purchases.
Delayed Carrier Promotions
Revenue was impacted by delayed carrier mobile broadband promotions and FWA orders, although gross margin held strong.
Concentration in Customer Base
Current customer base for MiFi and FWA is too concentrated, necessitating diversification efforts.
Company Guidance
In the recent Inseego Corp's First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance on various financial metrics and strategic initiatives. For Q2 2025, Inseego projected total revenue between $37 million to $40 million and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $2.5 million to $3.5 million. The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 47.5% for Q1 2025, a record high, driven by a favorable mix of products and services. Despite a slow start in Q1, revenue growth is expected to resume in Q2, particularly driven by improved traction in Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) revenue. Inseego is focusing on expanding its customer base and diversifying its product portfolio, targeting large Tier 1 carriers and multiple system operators. The company is also enhancing its software and services roadmap to transform into a solutions provider, with a strong emphasis on its Inseego Connect and Inseego Subscribe platforms. Additionally, Inseego has taken steps to improve its capital structure, reducing total debt to $41 million following a $15 million debt paydown.

Inseego Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Inseego's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues, negative stockholders' equity, and a negative EBITDA margin. Despite some positives in cash flow management, the company's financial leverage and solvency issues are concerning.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Inseego's TTM revenue showed a slight increase compared to the previous year, with a Gross Profit Margin of 38.74% and a Net Profit Margin of 3.42%. However, the company has experienced declining revenues over the past few years. Despite a positive EBIT Margin of 2.45%, the EBITDA Margin is negative, indicating challenges in covering depreciation and amortization costs.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, leading to an undefined Debt-to-Equity Ratio. This suggests significant financial leverage and potential solvency issues. The Equity Ratio is negative, reflecting the company's heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Despite operating cash flow covering net income with a ratio of 3.87, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate shows a decline compared to the previous year. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is positive at 3.18, indicating some ability to reinvest in the business. However, cash flow fluctuations present challenges.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
192.94M191.24M195.69M245.32M262.40M313.83M
Gross Profit
74.77M68.80M52.45M66.91M75.92M90.84M
EBIT
4.73M1.72M-36.28M-54.90M-45.32M-22.73M
EBITDA
-802.00K9.76M-13.71M-32.62M-15.52M-72.55M
Net Income Common Stockholders
6.59M4.57M-46.19M-67.97M-47.91M-111.19M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
35.15M39.60M7.52M7.14M46.47M40.02M
Total Assets
93.00M100.00M121.80M159.02M215.84M227.39M
Total Debt
58.98M60.71M170.73M167.10M157.87M165.15M
Net Debt
23.83M21.11M163.21M159.96M111.39M125.13M
Total Liabilities
105.99M112.86M223.90M229.13M240.70M255.29M
Stockholders Equity
-12.99M-12.86M-102.11M-70.12M-24.85M-27.81M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
20.99M33.42M-3.00M-46.61M-54.05M-15.05M
Operating Cash Flow
25.51M33.52M7.17M-33.29M-25.21M20.05M
Investing Cash Flow
42.59M43.03M-10.17M-13.32M6.08M-34.71M
Financing Cash Flow
-39.32M-38.78M2.21M5.43M29.92M42.08M

Inseego Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.35
Price Trends
50DMA
7.81
Negative
100DMA
9.34
Negative
200DMA
11.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
41.36
Neutral
STOCH
28.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INSG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.87, below the 50-day MA of 7.81, and below the 200-day MA of 11.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INSG.

Inseego Risk Analysis

Inseego disclosed 6 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Inseego reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Inseego Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$157.30M16.5036.41%5.18%
64
Neutral
$91.78M-10.88%-2.06%-22.58%
63
Neutral
$87.73M-8.55%-42.62%61.22%
62
Neutral
$11.92B10.48-7.50%2.95%7.40%-8.18%
58
Neutral
$231.59M-157.00%-21.17%23.22%
56
Neutral
$110.01M21.76111.75%1.60%
55
Neutral
$101.72M-6.78%-14.38%49.11%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
INSG
Inseego
7.35
-2.22
-23.20%
KVHI
KVH Industries
5.41
0.53
10.86%
LTRX
Lantronix
2.46
-1.23
-33.33%
BKTI
BK Technologies
42.86
29.46
219.85%
SILC
Silicom
15.00
-0.59
-3.78%
ONDS
Ondas Holdings
1.71
0.91
113.75%

Inseego Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Inseego Expands Board with New Director Appointment
Positive
May 5, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Inseego Corp. expanded its board of directors from five to six members by appointing George Mulhern as a non-employee director. Mulhern, recognized for his extensive experience in the wireless technology sector, is expected to bring strategic and operational insights to Inseego, leveraging his previous success in growing Cradlepoint’s revenue and leading its acquisition by Ericsson. This appointment aligns with Inseego’s strategic goals to capitalize on market opportunities as a leading U.S.-based supplier of wireless broadband solutions.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Inseego Completes Major Debt Reduction Initiative
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Inseego Corp. announced the completion of a significant capital structure management initiative by paying off approximately $15 million in convertible notes due in 2025. This milestone is part of a broader effort to reduce the company’s total debt by over $100 million in the past year, positioning Inseego on solid financial footing for future growth. The company reported no changes to its financial guidance for the first quarter of 2025 and plans to release its financial results on May 8, 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.