Icf International (ICFI)
NASDAQ:ICFI
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Icf International
(NASDAQ:ICFI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
▲(4.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is anchored by steady underlying financial quality (positive cash generation and improving leverage) and constructive 2026 guidance driven by strong non-federal demand. These positives are tempered by weak current technicals (broad downtrend with negative MACD) and the 2025 operating deterioration/federal revenue headwinds that add near-term uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Non‑federal revenue diversification
A sustained shift toward non‑federal clients (notably commercial energy) reduces reliance on federal procurement cycles and funding volatility. Higher‑margin commercial work supports steadier revenue and margin resilience, underpinning durable growth and less sensitivity to federal budget timing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material federal revenue decline
A large drop in federal revenue shows the company's continued sensitivity to federal contract cancellations and procurement slowdowns. Given federal work remains a meaningful portion of revenue, this exposure can materially depress consolidated results and sustain operating volatility until federal awarding and funding normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Non‑federal revenue diversification
A sustained shift toward non‑federal clients (notably commercial energy) reduces reliance on federal procurement cycles and funding volatility. Higher‑margin commercial work supports steadier revenue and margin resilience, underpinning durable growth and less sensitivity to federal budget timing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Icf International (ICFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.20B
Dividend Yield0.65%
Average Volume (3M)160.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth-3.81%
EPS Growth-7.05%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConsulting Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.47
Shares Outstanding18,273,280
10 Day Avg. Volume169,607
30 Day Avg. Volume160,182
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio13.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.25Price Target Upside60.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.91B
Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakehold...
How the Company Makes Money
ICF primarily makes money by delivering contracted professional services and technology solutions, with revenue recognized as work is performed under client contracts. A significant portion of its revenue is generated from U.S. federal government ...
Icf International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive recovery narrative: strong, broad‑based growth from non‑federal clients—most notably commercial energy—healthy backlog/pipeline, stable adjusted EBITDA margins and solid cash generation support management’s 2026 guidance for a return to revenue and EPS growth. These positives are counterbalanced by material federal weakness stemming from contract cancellations and the six‑week government shutdown that drove meaningful YoY revenue and quarterly earnings declines. Management expects federal revenue recovery through 2026 (returning to YoY growth by Q4) and highlights AI productivity gains and disciplined capital allocation as upside catalysts. On balance, the positive operational diversification, cash generation, and clear guidance outweigh the near‑term federal headwinds.Positive Updates
Non-Federal Revenue Growth and Mix Shift
Non-federal revenues increased 14.2% for the full year and 16% in Q4, accounting for ~57% of full year revenues in 2025 and ~62% of Q4 revenues; management expects non-federal clients to drive double-digit growth in 2026 and to represent over 60% of total revenues in 2026.
Negative Updates
Significant Federal Revenue Decline
Federal revenues declined 25.7% for the full year (management cited contract cancellations between February and May and slowdown in procurements) and fell 35.1% in Q4 year‑over‑year, materially weighing on consolidated results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Non-Federal Revenue Growth and Mix Shift
Non-federal revenues increased 14.2% for the full year and 16% in Q4, accounting for ~57% of full year revenues in 2025 and ~62% of Q4 revenues; management expects non-federal clients to drive double-digit growth in 2026 and to represent over 60% of total revenues in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ICF guided 2026 revenue of $1.89–$1.96 billion (≈3% growth at the midpoint), GAAP EPS $5.95–$6.25 and non‑GAAP EPS $6.95–$7.25 (≈5% growth at the midpoint), with Q1 revenue ≈ $450 million, Q1 GAAP EPS ≈ $1.20 and Q1 non‑GAAP EPS ≈ $1.55; management expects non‑federal clients to drive double‑digit growth and comprise >60% of 2026 revenues while federal revenues decline high single‑digits but improve sequentially (roughly 48% of revenue in H1, return to year‑over‑year federal growth by Q4), and noted a 2‑fewer working‑day headwind ~ $14 million. Other guidance/metrics: interest expense $27–$29 million, capex $24–$26 million, full‑year tax rate ~20.5%, year‑end diluted share count ~18.5 million, operating cash flow $135–$150 million; company cited a $3.4 billion backlog (≈50% funded), 1.19 book‑to‑bill, $8.6 billion pipeline, 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin 11.1% (with 10–20 bps of upside possible from AI), ~564,000 shares repurchased in 2025 (≈220,000 in Q4), and a $0.14 quarterly dividend.Icf International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.87B | 2.02B | 1.96B | 1.78B | 1.55B |
| Gross Profit | 637.87M | 737.77M | 698.22M | 645.54M | 573.48M |
| EBITDA | 178.56M | 221.12M | 196.97M | 157.18M | 142.04M |
| Net Income | 91.59M | 110.17M | 82.61M | 64.24M | 71.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 2.07B | 2.01B | 2.09B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.30M | 4.96M | 9.45M | 11.26M | 8.25M |
| Total Debt | 571.34M | 602.27M | 642.67M | 776.39M | 648.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.24B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.03B | 982.46M | 917.59M | 853.21M | 803.47M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 120.21M | 150.11M | 130.05M | 137.73M | 90.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 141.87M | 171.54M | 152.38M | 162.21M | 110.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.51M | -74.81M | -3.67M | -258.84M | -194.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -84.31M | -86.90M | -152.59M | 90.37M | 23.23M |
Icf International Technical Analysis
Negative
65.78
Price Trends
80.75
Negative
82.19
Negative
86.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.88
Negative
30.96
Neutral
24.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 65.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.46, below the 50-day MA of 80.75, and below the 200-day MA of 86.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICFI.
Icf International Risk Analysis
Icf International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Icf International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Icf International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.06B | 28.72 | 21.03% | ― | 12.50% | 29.40% | |
68 Neutral | $5.24B | 19.86 | 13.30% | ― | -0.95% | -10.54% | |
67 Neutral | $1.03B | 24.31 | 26.10% | 0.97% | 8.69% | 34.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $1.20B | 17.06 | 9.11% | 0.65% | -3.81% | -7.05% | |
48 Neutral | $124.63M | -3.17 | -59.80% | 6.74% | -10.83% | -1669.11% | |
46 Neutral | $111.99M | -1.29 | -80.76% | ― | -8.73% | -1168.15% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ICFI
Icf International
65.78
-19.97
-23.29%
CRAI
Cra International
156.48
-14.90
-8.69%
FORR
Forrester Research
5.84
-3.91
-40.10%
FCN
FTI Consulting
171.27
9.20
5.68%
HURN
Huron Consulting
121.81
-20.49
-14.40%
RGP
Resources Connection
3.72
-2.45
-39.76%
Icf International Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
ICF International Showcases Sustainability Leadership at Investor Summit
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
ICF International announced on March 5, 2026, that President Anne Choate and Senior Vice President of Energy, Environment and Infrastructure Strategy David Pickles would participate in a virtual fireside chat at the Canaccord Genuity Second Annual...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ICF International Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Strategic Shift
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
ICF reported that in the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, commercial, state and local, and international government revenues grew strongly, with commercial energy revenues up 23% in Q4 and 24% for the year, helping these marke...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.