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Icf International (ICFI)
NASDAQ:ICFI
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Icf International
(NASDAQ:ICFI)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$95.00
▲(9.51%Upside)
Positive Factors
Commercial Energy Growth
The commercial energy segment is bigger, more profitable, and growing faster than it ever has.
Profitability and Margins
Margins continue to expand as the more profitable commercial energy business becomes a larger proportion of the overall revenue stream.
Revenue and Earnings
Fourth-quarter revenue grew 4%, to $496 million, above consensus expectations, driven by commercial energy demand.
Negative Factors
Federal Business Decline
Federal business, just under half of revenue, was down ~12-13% in the quarter, driven by some project cancellations and stop work orders.
Government Spending Cuts
A fiscal budget proposal outlines significant discretionary spending cuts to federal environmental, education, renewable energy, and foreign aid programs, exemplifying the rapidly changing nature of the environment ICF must navigate.
Market Uncertainty
Unprecedented dynamics in Washington create uncertainty for at least the next few quarters; downgrading to HOLD.
Icf International (ICFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.60B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)214.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth1.95%
EPS Growth17.98%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength92
IndustryConsulting Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.94
Shares Outstanding18,411,116
10 Day Avg. Volume196,276
30 Day Avg. Volume214,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-83.78
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio12.07
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.33Price Target Upside24.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionICF International (ICFI) is a global consulting and technology services company that partners with government and commercial clients to solve complex challenges and improve operational outcomes. The company operates across various sectors including energy, environment, public health, housing, and transportation, offering services such as advisory, analytics, digital solutions, and program implementation. ICF's core mission is to provide strategic and technical expertise to help clients make informed decisions and achieve their objectives in an efficient and sustainable manner.
How the Company Makes MoneyICF International generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes consulting services, technology solutions, and program management. A significant portion of the company's income is derived from contracts with government agencies, both in the United States and internationally, providing expertise in areas like cybersecurity, public health, and energy efficiency. Additionally, ICF collaborates with commercial clients, offering tailored solutions to enhance their business strategies and operational efficiencies. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its capabilities and market reach. Revenue is typically structured through long-term contracts, retainer agreements, and project-based engagements, ensuring a stable and recurring income stream.
Icf International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 1.72%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong growth in commercial energy revenues and an increase in non-GAAP EPS, contrasted by significant challenges in the federal government sector due to contract terminations and funding curtailments. The company is navigating a dynamic environment with strategic focus on growth in commercial, state, and local sectors.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Commercial Energy Revenue Growth
Revenues from commercial energy clients increased 21% year-over-year, driven by strong demand from utility clients for energy efficiency, electrification, and customer engagement programs.
Increased Revenue from Diverse Client Base
Revenues from commercial, state and local, and international government clients collectively accounted for 51% of total revenues, up from 45% in the previous year.
Non-GAAP EPS Improvement
Non-GAAP EPS increased by almost 10%, significantly outpacing first-quarter revenue comparisons.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA margin on total revenues expanded by 10 basis points to 11.3%.
Successful Integration of AEG
Completed integration of AEG, enhancing opportunities for synergistic growth in the energy sector.
Negative Updates
Federal Client Revenue Decline
Revenues from federal clients declined 12.6%, impacted by contract funding curtailments and a slower pace of new RFPs.
Stop Work Orders and Contract Terminations
Approximately $115 million of estimated 2025 revenues affected by stop work orders and contract terminations, with a total backlog impact of $375 million.
Federal Government Business Uncertainty
Continued uncertainty in the federal government business environment, with a fluid and unsettled market impacting revenue guidance.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, ICF's performance aligned with expectations, with revenues totaling $487.6 million, reflecting a 1.4% year-over-year decline. The commercial, state, local, and international government sectors contributed 51% to first-quarter revenues, up from 45% a year ago. Commercial energy revenues surged by 21%, significantly enhancing the commercial client category, which now represents 29.5% of total revenues. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 10 basis points to 11.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. Despite a slight decline in net income, non-GAAP EPS increased by nearly 10%, outperforming revenue comparisons. For the full year 2025, revenue from commercial energy, state and local, and international government clients is projected to grow by at least 15%, accounting for over 55% of total revenues. However, federal client revenues are expected to decline by up to 10% due to contract funding curtailments and a slower pace of new RFPs.Icf International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ICF International exhibits solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and stable profitability. The balance sheet is stable with manageable debt levels, and cash flow generation is robust despite some inconsistencies in free cash flow growth.Income Statement
ICF International has demonstrated a strong revenue growth over the years, with revenue increasing from $1.50 billion in 2020 to $2.01 billion in TTM 2025. The gross profit margin has also shown improvement, reaching 51.1% in TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin is stable at around 5.4%, reflecting consistent profitability. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations but remains healthy at 8.1% in TTM. The EBITDA margin is also stable at 10.4%, showcasing solid operational performance.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet highlights a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 in TTM, which suggests a balanced leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 11.3%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is at 46.7%, pointing to a moderate level of equity financing relative to assets. Overall, the balance sheet is stable with manageable debt levels.75
Positive
Cash Flow
ICF International has shown a positive trend in its free cash flow, although the growth rate has been inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.35 in TTM indicates robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased slightly, reflecting increased capital expenditure needs. Despite these fluctuations, the company's cash flow position remains solid with consistent generation of free cash flow.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.01B | 2.02B | 1.96B | 1.78B | 1.55B | 1.51B | Gross Profit |
| 725.74M | 737.77M | 698.22M | 645.54M | 573.48M | 534.47M | EBIT |
| 163.66M | 165.84M | 132.32M | 108.76M | 110.94M | 89.11M | EBITDA |
| 216.78M | 214.88M | 196.97M | 157.18M | 150.81M | 122.04M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 109.70M | 110.17M | 82.61M | 64.24M | 71.13M | 54.96M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 5.72M | 4.96M | 9.45M | 11.26M | 8.25M | 13.84M | Total Assets |
| 2.08B | 2.07B | 2.01B | 2.09B | 1.85B | 1.67B | Total Debt |
| 687.19M | 602.27M | 642.67M | 776.39M | 648.31M | 452.18M | Net Debt |
| 681.47M | 597.31M | 636.31M | 765.13M | 640.06M | 438.34M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.11B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.24B | 1.05B | 920.33M | Stockholders Equity |
| 968.87M | 982.46M | 917.59M | 853.21M | 803.47M | 746.96M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 128.85M | 150.11M | 130.05M | 137.73M | 90.27M | 155.46M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 148.51M | 171.54M | 152.38M | 162.21M | 110.20M | 173.15M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -74.75M | -74.81M | -3.67M | -258.84M | -194.48M | -270.95M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -54.71M | -86.90M | -152.59M | 90.37M | 23.23M | 169.96M |
Icf International Technical Analysis
Negative
86.75
Price Trends
84.97
Positive
96.99
Negative
125.70
Negative
Market Momentum
0.52
Negative
51.44
Neutral
55.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 86.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.90, above the 50-day MA of 84.97, and below the 200-day MA of 125.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICFI.
Icf International Risk Analysis
Icf International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Icf International reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Icf International Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.60B | 14.88 | 11.64% | 0.66% | 1.95% | 17.98% | |
73 Outperform | $1.47B | 8.48 | 14.25% | 0.79% | -5.69% | 51.78% | |
69 Neutral | $1.50B | 36.20 | 4.10% | ― | 7.38% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.39B | 7.02 | 14.69% | 2.75% | -5.79% | 82.71% | |
65 Neutral | $4.41B | 12.06 | 5.22% | 249.80% | 4.09% | -12.16% | |
65 Neutral | $1.40B | 20.94 | 11.04% | 1.58% | 1.35% | -40.63% | |
58 Neutral | $1.90B | 40.79 | 35.20% | 2.10% | -29.43% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ICFI
Icf International
86.75
-51.53
-37.26%
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TNC
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74.95
-23.95
-24.22%
ARCB
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64.20
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-36.44%
VVX
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47.39
1.89
4.15%
Icf International Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
ICF International Expands Board with New Appointment
Positive
Mar 11, 2025
On March 6, 2025, ICF International announced the appointment of Caroline Angoorly to its board of directors, expanding the board from seven to eight members. Angoorly, with extensive experience in the energy, power market, infrastructure, and environment sectors, is expected to contribute significantly to ICF’s growth strategies and market positioning. Her appointment follows ICF’s strong performance in 2024, particularly in the commercial energy market, where the company has been expanding its demand side management, grid resilience, electrification, and flexible load management technologies and services.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.