Icf International (ICFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.53B
• Dividend Yield: 0.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 160.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: -3.81%
• EPS Growth: -7.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Consulting Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 18,435,932
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 169,607
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 160,182
• PEG Ratio: -1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.83
• 1Y Price Target: $99.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.91B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $85.00 ▲(2.25% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

ICFI’s score is driven primarily by solid but recently pressured financial performance (2025 revenue/margin weakness despite improving leverage and positive cash flow). Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~14), while technicals are notably bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD. The latest earnings call is mixed: strong bookings and diversification into higher-growth non-federal work help, but federal weakness and shutdown-related headwinds weigh on near-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue mix diversification

A durable shift toward commercial, state/local and international clients reduces exposure to federal funding cycles. Higher-weighted non-federal work typically offers steadier demand and less procurement volatility, improving revenue predictability and margin stability over the medium term.

Strong bookings and pipeline

A robust backlog and book-to-bill above 1 indicate sustained demand and multi-period revenue visibility. Large pipeline and recent awards provide durable revenue conversion opportunities, helping smooth near-term volatility and supporting organic growth over the next several quarters.

Improving leverage and positive cash flow

Lower leverage and consistent positive operating/free cash flow enhance financial flexibility, fund investments and support dividends/repurchases. Even with softer cash flow in 2025, the trend toward reduced debt improves resilience against revenue swings and preserves capital allocation optionality.

Negative Factors

High federal revenue sensitivity

Significant exposure to federal program funding creates structural cyclicality: large federal revenue drops can materially pressure top-line and utilization. Continued procurement slowdowns or shutdowns could repeatedly depress revenue and gross profit until non-federal growth fully offsets the gap.

2025 revenue and gross profit weakness

A negative gross profit in the latest year signals operational margin stress that may not be transitory. If contract mix, pricing or cost absorption issues persist, margin recovery could lag revenue recovery, constraining free cash flow and the firm's ability to invest in higher-growth initiatives.

Higher tax rate pressure

A materially higher effective tax rate reduces sustainable net income and free cash flow. If portions of the increase reflect permanent legislative changes rather than one-offs, ongoing after-tax margins and capacity for dividends, buybacks or reinvestment will be structurally impaired.

Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges. The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage. In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance. Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management. It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

ICF International generates revenue primarily through its consulting and technology services. The company operates on a project-based revenue model, where it earns fees for delivering specific services to clients under contracts, often with government agencies and large corporations. Key revenue streams include performance-based contracts, time and materials contracts, and fixed-price contracts. ICFI also benefits from long-term relationships with clients, which can lead to recurring revenue opportunities. Additionally, the company engages in partnerships with other firms and organizations to enhance its service offerings, contributing to its earnings by expanding its market reach and capabilities.

Icf International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are stable overall but weakened recently. The income statement shows uneven growth and 2025 pressure (revenue decline and notable margin/gross profit issues), partly offset by a balance sheet with improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.56) and consistently positive operating and free cash flow, albeit softer in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been uneven: solid growth in 2022–2023, modest growth in 2024, and a decline in 2025. Profitability is generally steady with net margins in the ~3.6%–5.5% range, but 2025 shows notable pressure with a reported negative gross profit and weaker EBITDA margin versus prior years, despite remaining profitable at the net income line. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable but not high-growth profile, with a clear profitability concern in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity trending down from higher levels in 2021–2022 to ~0.56 in 2025, alongside rising equity. Returns on equity are steady (roughly mid-to-high single digits to low double digits), indicating consistent profitability relative to the capital base. The main weakness is that debt remains meaningful in absolute terms, which can limit flexibility if earnings volatility increases.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow generally tracks net income well (free cash flow running at ~0.82–0.90 of net income). However, cash generation has softened recently, with free cash flow down in 2025 and an operating cash flow-to-net income relationship that is not especially strong, suggesting working-capital swings or timing effects. Overall cash flow quality is good, but momentum is weaker in the latest year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87B	2.02B	1.96B	1.78B	1.55B
Gross Profit	-547.88M	737.77M	698.22M	645.54M	573.48M
EBITDA	178.56M	221.12M	196.97M	157.18M	142.04M
Net Income	91.59M	110.17M	82.61M	64.24M	71.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.05B	2.07B	2.01B	2.09B	1.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.30M	4.96M	9.45M	11.26M	8.25M
Total Debt	571.34M	602.27M	642.67M	776.39M	648.31M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	1.08B	1.09B	1.24B	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	1.03B	982.46M	917.59M	853.21M	803.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	120.21M	150.11M	130.05M	137.73M	90.27M
Operating Cash Flow	141.87M	171.54M	152.38M	162.21M	110.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.51M	-74.81M	-3.67M	-258.84M	-194.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.31M	-86.90M	-152.59M	90.37M	23.23M

Icf International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 83.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 83.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.40, below the 50-day MA of 87.29, and below the 200-day MA of 87.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ICFI.

Icf International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HURN	71 Outperform	$2.39B	24.18	19.27%	―	12.50%	29.40%
FCN	68 Neutral	$5.03B	19.91	13.30%	―	-0.95%	-10.54%
CRAI	67 Neutral	$1.13B	21.20	25.72%	0.97%	8.69%	34.58%
ICFI	64 Neutral	$1.53B	16.81	9.88%	0.65%	-3.81%	-7.05%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RGP	47 Neutral	$125.97M	-0.94	-61.44%	6.74%	-10.83%	-1669.11%
FORR	42 Neutral	$113.64M	-0.95	-43.39%	―	-8.73%	-1168.15%

Icf International Corporate Events

ICF International Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Strategic Shift

ICF reported that in the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, commercial, state and local, and international government revenues grew strongly, with commercial energy revenues up 23% in Q4 and 24% for the year, helping these markets reach 57% of annual revenues. This shift toward higher-margin commercial energy work, alongside effective cost management and a revenue mix dominated by fixed price and time-and-materials contracts, allowed the company to largely preserve margins despite a 7.3% full-year revenue decline.

Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue fell to $443.7 million and full-year revenue to $1.87 billion, as U.S. federal government revenue dropped 35.1% in Q4, reflecting contract funding curtailments, fewer RFPs and a 43-day government shutdown. Net income decreased to $17.3 million in Q4 and $91.6 million for the year, yet adjusted EBITDA margin held at 10.4% for the quarter and 11.1% for the year, supported by an expanding commercial energy portfolio, a $3.4 billion backlog, a 1.19 book-to-bill ratio and continued investment in AI-enabled and other growth services.

On February 26, 2026, ICF’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, payable April 14, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 27, 2026. The board noted that future dividends will remain subject to its discretion and will depend on earnings, financial conditions, capital needs and other factors, underscoring a balanced approach to capital returns following a year in which the company also repurchased about 564,000 shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

ICF International to Join Sidoti Investor Conference

ICF International announced its participation in the Sidoti Year End Virtual Investor Conference, where its COO James Morgan and CFO Barry Broadus will engage in a virtual fireside chat on December 10, 2025. This participation underscores ICF’s ongoing commitment to engaging with investors and stakeholders, potentially enhancing its market visibility and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.