Icf International (ICFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.42B
• Dividend Yield: 0.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 160.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: -3.81%
• EPS Growth: -7.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Consulting Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 18,273,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 169,607
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 160,182
• PEG Ratio: -1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.80
• 1Y Price Target: $105.25
• Price Target Upside: 35.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.91B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $82.00 ▲(5.37% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by stable underlying financials (positive cash generation and improving leverage) and constructive 2026 guidance with strong non-federal demand and backlog support. Offsetting these strengths are weak current technical trends and the ongoing federal revenue headwind that contributed to 2025 declines and could keep near-term results volatile.

Positive Factors

Diversified non-federal growth

A sustained shift toward non-federal clients reduces reliance on volatile federal spending, improving revenue stability and margin mix. With non-federal expected to be >60% of 2026 revenues and double-digit growth guided, commercial demand can provide steadier, higher-margin cash flows over the next several quarters.

Large backlog and healthy book-to-bill

A $3.4B backlog and an $8.6B pipeline with book-to-bill >1 give multi-period revenue visibility and reduce near-term demand risk. This backlog supports revenue recovery and smoother capacity planning, enabling more predictable utilization and contract ramping over the 2–6 month horizon.

Positive cash generation and de-leveraging

Consistent positive operating cash flow and falling leverage strengthen financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives, AI investments, and capital returns. Improved balance-sheet metrics reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, supporting sustained operations and strategic prioritization during federal recovery.

Negative Factors

Material federal revenue decline

A steep federal revenue contraction materially reduces a historically stable client base and increases exposure to timing and procurement cycles. Prolonged federal weakness could delay overall revenue recovery, depress utilization and strain earnings visibility across multiple quarters.

Uneven revenue and margin pressure in 2025

Reported negative gross profit and compressed EBITDA signal operational stress from cost mix and subcontractor passthroughs. Restoring consistent profitability will require sustained higher-margin bookings and discipline on direct costs, or margins may remain volatile despite top-line recovery.

Softening cash flow quality

Weaker cash-flow momentum reduces the cushion for capital returns and strategic investments. If operating cash flow does not rebound, the company may face constraints on buybacks, dividends or reinvestment, increasing execution risk amid ongoing revenue and margin variability.

Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges. The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage. In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance. Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management. It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

ICF International generates revenue primarily through its consulting and technology services. The company operates on a project-based revenue model, where it earns fees for delivering specific services to clients under contracts, often with government agencies and large corporations. Key revenue streams include performance-based contracts, time and materials contracts, and fixed-price contracts. ICFI also benefits from long-term relationships with clients, which can lead to recurring revenue opportunities. Additionally, the company engages in partnerships with other firms and organizations to enhance its service offerings, contributing to its earnings by expanding its market reach and capabilities.

Icf International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are generally stable with consistently positive operating cash flow/free cash flow and improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.56). However, 2025 showed clear operating pressure (revenue decline and reported gross profit/margin issues) and softer cash flow momentum, which increases near-term earnings risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been uneven: solid growth in 2022–2023, modest growth in 2024, and a decline in 2025. Profitability is generally steady with net margins in the ~3.6%–5.5% range, but 2025 shows notable pressure with a reported negative gross profit and weaker EBITDA margin versus prior years, despite remaining profitable at the net income line. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable but not high-growth profile, with a clear profitability concern in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity trending down from higher levels in 2021–2022 to ~0.56 in 2025, alongside rising equity. Returns on equity are steady (roughly mid-to-high single digits to low double digits), indicating consistent profitability relative to the capital base. The main weakness is that debt remains meaningful in absolute terms, which can limit flexibility if earnings volatility increases.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow generally tracks net income well (free cash flow running at ~0.82–0.90 of net income). However, cash generation has softened recently, with free cash flow down in 2025 and an operating cash flow-to-net income relationship that is not especially strong, suggesting working-capital swings or timing effects. Overall cash flow quality is good, but momentum is weaker in the latest year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87B	2.02B	1.96B	1.78B	1.55B
Gross Profit	637.87M	737.77M	698.22M	645.54M	573.48M
EBITDA	209.83M	221.12M	196.97M	157.18M	142.04M
Net Income	91.59M	110.17M	82.61M	64.24M	71.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.05B	2.07B	2.01B	2.09B	1.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.30M	4.96M	9.45M	11.26M	8.25M
Total Debt	571.34M	602.27M	642.67M	776.39M	648.31M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	1.08B	1.09B	1.24B	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	1.03B	982.46M	917.59M	853.21M	803.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	120.21M	150.11M	130.05M	137.73M	90.27M
Operating Cash Flow	141.87M	171.54M	152.38M	162.21M	110.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.51M	-74.81M	-3.67M	-258.84M	-194.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.31M	-86.90M	-152.59M	90.37M	23.23M

Icf International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 77.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.63, below the 50-day MA of 87.10, and below the 200-day MA of 87.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICFI.

Icf International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HURN	71 Outperform	$2.44B	24.70	19.27%	―	12.50%	29.40%
FCN	68 Neutral	$5.01B	19.86	13.30%	―	-0.95%	-10.54%
CRAI	67 Neutral	$1.18B	21.20	25.72%	0.97%	8.69%	34.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ICFI	62 Neutral	$1.42B	16.81	9.88%	0.65%	-3.81%	-7.05%
RGP	47 Neutral	$123.62M	-0.92	-61.44%	6.74%	-10.83%	-1669.11%
FORR	42 Neutral	$114.02M	-0.95	-43.39%	―	-8.73%	-1168.15%

Icf International Corporate Events

ICF International Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Strategic Shift

ICF reported that in the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, commercial, state and local, and international government revenues grew strongly, with commercial energy revenues up 23% in Q4 and 24% for the year, helping these markets reach 57% of annual revenues. This shift toward higher-margin commercial energy work, alongside effective cost management and a revenue mix dominated by fixed price and time-and-materials contracts, allowed the company to largely preserve margins despite a 7.3% full-year revenue decline.

Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue fell to $443.7 million and full-year revenue to $1.87 billion, as U.S. federal government revenue dropped 35.1% in Q4, reflecting contract funding curtailments, fewer RFPs and a 43-day government shutdown. Net income decreased to $17.3 million in Q4 and $91.6 million for the year, yet adjusted EBITDA margin held at 10.4% for the quarter and 11.1% for the year, supported by an expanding commercial energy portfolio, a $3.4 billion backlog, a 1.19 book-to-bill ratio and continued investment in AI-enabled and other growth services.

On February 26, 2026, ICF’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, payable April 14, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 27, 2026. The board noted that future dividends will remain subject to its discretion and will depend on earnings, financial conditions, capital needs and other factors, underscoring a balanced approach to capital returns following a year in which the company also repurchased about 564,000 shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

ICF International to Join Sidoti Investor Conference

ICF International announced its participation in the Sidoti Year End Virtual Investor Conference, where its COO James Morgan and CFO Barry Broadus will engage in a virtual fireside chat on December 10, 2025. This participation underscores ICF’s ongoing commitment to engaging with investors and stakeholders, potentially enhancing its market visibility and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.