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Home Bancshares
(NYSE:HOMB)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$36.00
â–²(16.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
HOMB scores well primarily on strong financial performance (high profitability, improved leverage, and solid cash-flow alignment with earnings) and a positive earnings-call read-through (record operating metrics, strong capital/liquidity, and active buybacks). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and healthy momentum. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~12.7 with a ~2.67% yield). The main constraints are revenue/cash-flow variability over time and near-term uncertainty around loan-growth guidance and deposit/CD repricing pressure.
Positive Factors
High profitability and stable NIM
Sustained high margins (TTM net margin ~34%, EBIT ~44%) and a stable NIM provide durable earnings power and resilience across cycles. Strong margins support cash generation, fund dividends/buybacks, and permit disciplined lending even if top-line growth lags, enhancing long-term return potential.
Negative Factors
Volatile loan and revenue growth / forecasting
Unpredictable loan balances and uneven revenue introduce durable planning friction for capital allocation, provisioning and margin management. Persistent forecasting volatility complicates pricing discipline and strategic decisions, raising execution risk for 2–6 month planning horizons and M&A integration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and stable NIM
Sustained high margins (TTM net margin ~34%, EBIT ~44%) and a stable NIM provide durable earnings power and resilience across cycles. Strong margins support cash generation, fund dividends/buybacks, and permit disciplined lending even if top-line growth lags, enhancing long-term return potential.
Read all positive factors
Home Bancshares (HOMB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.26B
Dividend Yield2.67%
Average Volume (3M)2.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth1.86%
EPS Growth10.69%
CountryUS
Employees2,543
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding201,413,420
10 Day Avg. Volume2,271,365
30 Day Avg. Volume2,121,310
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio14.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.67Price Target Upside5.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.17B
Home Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Conway, Arkansas, Home Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent company for Centennial Bank. Through Centennial Bank, it delivers a comprehensive suite of commercial and retail banking solutions, alongside other financial services, cateri...
How the Company Makes Money
Home Bancshares primarily earns money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by collecting interest on loans and other interest-earning assets and paying interest on deposits and other funding ...
Home Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple record operating metrics (record adjusted net income, record PPNR, revenue growth, stable strong NIM, improved tangible book value and capital ratios), successful early contribution from the Mountain Commerce acquisition, stepped-up share repurchases, and improving credit coverage. Headwinds were manageable and largely known: merger-related expenses, one remaining large nonperforming loan (where management expects no further loss), ongoing forecasting uncertainty for loan balances, competitive pressure on pricing/structure, and near-term deposit/CD repricing risk. On balance the positive operational and capital metrics and management’s emphasis on credit discipline and accretive M&A outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted Net Income and EPS
Adjusted net income of $128.1 million (after tax) and adjusted EPS of $0.64 excluding merger expenses; adjusted net income up 8.4% sequentially and ~12% year-over-year (vs. 6/30/25).
Negative Updates
Merger-Related Expenses
Approximately $12.7 million of merger-related expenses were incurred in the quarter, reducing reported (not adjusted) earnings.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted Net Income and EPS
Adjusted net income of $128.1 million (after tax) and adjusted EPS of $0.64 excluding merger expenses; adjusted net income up 8.4% sequentially and ~12% year-over-year (vs. 6/30/25).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized steadiness on margin and profitability but no forward loan-growth guidance given recent volatility (Q2 swung from a projected -$600M to +$26M, a $626M swing); they reiterated a stable NIM (~4.51% reported; core margin ~4.47%), continued strong returns (adjusted net income $128.1M, EPS $0.64, adjusted ROA 2.09%, ROTCE 16.82% on a 13.22% TCE), and record PPNR of $171M with an adjusted efficiency ratio of 40.46. They expect Mountain Commerce to contribute sooner than planned and generate roughly $5.5M–$6M of annual cost savings on conversion (targeted for November), will continue elevated buybacks (1.5M shares this quarter, $40.4M; ~15M shares remaining authorization), and reiterated strong liquidity and capital (CET1 16.4%, total risk-based 19%, tangible book $15.32 up $0.45, ~ $450M parent cash). On balance sheet and credit, they noted loan production strength (Q2 production just over $1.4B, ~ $1B from the community footprint; $1.5B of loans/deposits added from Tennessee), loan yields ex-event ~6.96% (exit 6.99%), deposit costs averaged 1.85% (interest-bearing 2.38%, exit 2.38%), reserves-to-loans 1.92% with NPLs down 8 bps, NPAs down 4 bps, early-stage past dues <50 bps, and NPL coverage ~177%.Home Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
79
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 1.37B | 1.45B | 1.33B | 1.04B | 751.98M |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.06B | 952.60M | 967.81M | 855.30M | 704.54M |
| EBITDA | 626.08M | 617.62M | 551.54M | 542.81M | 426.43M | 436.26M |
| Net Income | 479.37M | 475.44M | 402.24M | 392.93M | 305.26M | 319.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.71B | 22.88B | 22.49B | 22.66B | 22.88B | 18.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 279.66M | 2.24B | 2.65B | 4.51B | 4.77B | 6.77B |
| Total Debt | 888.60M | 935.32M | 1.20B | 1.88B | 1.22B | 911.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 20.17B | 18.59B | 18.53B | 18.87B | 19.36B | 15.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.55B | 4.30B | 3.96B | 3.79B | 3.53B | 2.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 444.76M | 377.02M | 422.12M | 357.20M | 393.59M | 379.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 452.15M | 399.28M | 460.65M | 379.67M | 413.17M | 389.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.79M | -470.32M | 5.67M | 578.46M | -1.02B | 624.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -486.91M | -171.97M | -556.18M | -682.71M | -2.31B | 1.37B |
Home Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
30.98
Price Trends
29.00
Positive
27.81
Positive
27.77
Positive
Market Momentum
0.63
Positive
59.08
Neutral
26.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOMB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.67, above the 50-day MA of 29.00, and above the 200-day MA of 27.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOMB.
Home Bancshares Risk Analysis
Home Bancshares disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Home Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Home Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.26B | 12.73 | 11.01% | 2.68% | 1.86% | 10.69% | |
81 Outperform | $5.82B | 8.31 | 11.21% | 3.70% | 0.67% | 0.52% | |
74 Outperform | $8.84B | 12.41 | 9.22% | 4.72% | 20.84% | -0.60% | |
74 Outperform | $6.73B | 11.18 | 8.94% | 2.57% | 2.69% | 30.63% | |
72 Outperform | $7.92B | 11.81 | 8.88% | 3.07% | 1.17% | 51.80% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $6.41B | 19.96 | 7.61% | 2.63% | 20.01% | 26.97% |
* Financial Sector Average
HOMB
Home Bancshares
30.81
3.92
14.58%
OZK
Bank OZK
51.41
5.35
11.62%
COLB
Columbia Banking System
31.24
8.17
35.43%
FNB
F.N.B.
18.97
4.49
30.98%
GBCI
Glacier Bancorp
48.75
6.19
14.54%
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
14.55
5.56
61.90%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.