Home Bancshares (HOMB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.50B
• Dividend Yield: 2.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.43%
• EPS Growth: 19.58%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,552
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 196,634,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,218,044
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,246,668
• PEG Ratio: 0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.36
• 1Y Price Target: $32.80
• Price Target Upside: 17.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.17B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(7.26% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying fundamentals (strong profitability and improving leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~3% dividend). Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and some deal-related execution/process risk tied to the pending M&A and supplemental disclosures.

Positive Factors

Profitability & Efficiency

Sustained high margins and a sub-40% efficiency ratio indicate durable operating leverage and strong core profitability. Over 2–6 months this supports internal capital generation, the ability to fund growth or dividends, and resilience to cyclical revenue swings without requiring structural changes.

Balance Sheet Strength

Improving leverage and rising equity create a more resilient capital base and regulatory cushion, enabling continued lending and M&A. This structural improvement enhances funding flexibility, lowers default risk exposure, and supports steady credit extension and shareholder returns across economic cycles.

Strategic M&A Expansion

The Mountain Commerce acquisition materially expands geographic scale into Knoxville/Nashville and is slated to be accretive, strengthening deposit diversity and market share. Structural scale gains and cross-sell opportunities should improve long-run net interest income and operational efficiency.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Volatility

A notable drop in operating and free cash flow in 2025 reduces internal funding for capital allocation and increases reliance on external funding or retained earnings. Persisting cash volatility can constrain dividend sustainability, limit buyback capacity, and reduce flexibility for strategic investments.

Revenue Growth Deceleration

A reversal from prior revenue expansion to a 2025 decline signals potential headwinds in loan growth or fee income. If the slowdown persists it could pressure net interest income and operating leverage, making it harder to convert efficiency into consistent earnings growth over the medium term.

Governance / Family Board Appointment

Adding the CEO's son to the board raises structural governance and independence questions. Over time this may concern minority shareholders and could limit perceived board oversight, potentially affecting strategic discipline and risk oversight on material decisions like M&A or executive succession.

Home Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) operates as the bank holding company for Centennial Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and related financial services to businesses, real estate developers and investors, individuals, and municipalities. Its deposit products include checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company's loan portfolio comprises non-farm/non-residential real estate, construction/land development, residential mortgage, consumer, agricultural, and commercial and industrial loans. It also provides internet banking, mobile banking and voice response information, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, and automatic account transfer services, as well as safe deposit boxes and the United States savings bonds. In addition, the company writes policies for commercial and personal lines of business, including insurance for property, casualty, life, health, and employee benefits. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 160 branch locations that included 76 branches in Arkansas, 78 branches in Florida, 5 branches in Alabama, and 1 branch in New York City. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Conway, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Home Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income earned on loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from service fees and other banking services. Key revenue streams include interest from commercial and residential loans, consumer loans, and mortgages. The bank also earns fees from deposit accounts, transaction services, and wealth management services. Additionally, Home Bancshares has grown its earnings through strategic acquisitions, expanding its footprint and customer base, which contributes to increased loan and deposit volumes. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance customer loyalty and drive revenue growth.

Home Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a strengthening balance sheet (lower leverage, steady equity growth) support a solid fundamental profile, but the sharp 2025 free-cash-flow deterioration and 2025 revenue dip versus 2024 meaningfully temper the score.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded materially over the cycle (2022–2024 strong growth), though 2025 revenue dipped versus 2024. Profitability remains a clear strength: net margins are consistently high (roughly high-20s to mid-30s recently), and operating profitability improved in 2025 versus 2024. The main weakness is the recent growth deceleration (2025), which tempers an otherwise strong earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage trends are favorable: debt-to-equity has come down meaningfully from 2023 to 2025, and total debt declined in 2025. Equity has steadily grown, supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity are solid and relatively stable (around ~10–11% recently), though not accelerating, which keeps the score just below top-tier.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally supportive of earnings, with free cash flow tracking net income closely in most years (near 1:1 conversion). However, 2025 shows a sharp deterioration in free cash flow growth versus 2024, and operating cash flow also declined year over year. The volatility in cash flow growth is the key concern despite decent longer-run conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.37B	1.45B	1.33B	1.04B	751.98M
Gross Profit	1.06B	952.60M	967.81M	855.30M	704.54M
EBITDA	617.62M	551.54M	542.81M	426.43M	436.26M
Net Income	475.44M	402.24M	392.93M	305.26M	319.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.88B	22.49B	22.66B	22.88B	18.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.11B	2.65B	4.51B	4.77B	6.77B
Total Debt	935.32M	1.20B	1.88B	1.22B	911.98M
Total Liabilities	18.59B	18.53B	18.87B	19.36B	15.29B
Stockholders Equity	4.30B	3.96B	3.79B	3.53B	2.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	482.33M	422.12M	357.20M	393.59M	379.10M
Operating Cash Flow	350.44M	460.65M	379.67M	413.17M	389.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.83M	5.67M	578.46M	-1.02B	624.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-398.59M	-556.18M	-682.71M	-2.31B	1.37B

Home Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOMB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.17, below the 50-day MA of 28.66, and below the 200-day MA of 28.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOMB.

Home Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COLB	71 Outperform	$8.58B	12.39	8.47%	5.07%	-0.30%	-3.80%
FNB	71 Outperform	$6.16B	10.88	8.66%	2.73%	4.54%	27.56%
OZK	70 Outperform	$5.41B	7.54	12.09%	3.68%	2.79%	2.11%
VLY	69 Neutral	$7.12B	12.50	7.85%	3.69%	-1.94%	41.35%
HOMB	68 Neutral	$5.50B	11.42	11.51%	2.85%	1.43%	19.58%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GBCI	67 Neutral	$5.96B	22.82	6.43%	2.89%	8.73%	26.19%

Home Bancshares Corporate Events

Home Bancshares Issues Supplemental Disclosures on MCBI Merger

On December 7, 2025, Home BancShares agreed to acquire Mountain Commerce Bancorp, Inc. and its subsidiary Mountain Commerce Bank, with MCBI merging into Home and MCB into Centennial Bank, further extending Home’s regional banking presence. On March 1, 2026, Home and MCBI disclosed that, although they deny any legal obligation to do so, they are providing supplemental proxy and prospectus information in response to shareholder disclosure requests, including expanded background on merger negotiations, standstill agreements, peer comparisons, valuation inputs, and projected accretion metrics, in an effort to avoid delays, contain costs and give MCBI investors more detail on the transaction’s financial underpinnings.

The additional disclosures detail the scope and expiry of standstill provisions that previously limited rival bidders, clarify Piper Sandler’s comparable company and net present value analyses for both MCBI and Home, and outline expected earnings per share and tangible book value accretion for Home following the deal. These clarifications, based on management projections and cost of capital assumptions, are intended to strengthen the informational base for MCBI shareholders ahead of their vote, while signaling that the merger remains on track and financially supportive of Home’s strategic expansion plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOMB) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Home Bancshares stock, see the HOMB Stock Forecast page.

Home BancShares appoints John W. Allison II to board

On January 16, 2026, Home BancShares, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors appointed John W. Allison II to serve as a director of the company, with his term effective immediately and running until the next annual meeting or until a successor is elected and qualified. The move adds a new member with close family ties to the existing leadership—John W. Allison II is the son of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John W. Allison—highlighting a continuation of family involvement at the board level, although he has not yet been assigned to any board committees.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOMB) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Home Bancshares stock, see the HOMB Stock Forecast page.

Home BancShares Delivers Record 2025 Earnings and Growth

On January 14, 2026, Home BancShares reported a strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025, highlighted by $400.2 million in Q4 loan growth, a sub-40% efficiency ratio, and a robust net interest margin that helped drive an 18% year-over-year increase in net income and record annual earnings of $475.4 million, equivalent to a 2.10% return on assets. Throughout 2025 the bank delivered steady gains in net income, total revenue and pre-tax, pre-provision net income, while lowering interest expense, keeping non-interest costs stable despite a spike in legal expenses tied to a Texas lawsuit that was resolved in the fourth quarter, and maintaining strong capital and credit metrics, underscoring disciplined balance sheet management and reinforcing its ability to deliver long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOMB) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Home Bancshares stock, see the HOMB Stock Forecast page.

Home BancShares Announces Merger with Mountain Commerce Bancorp

On December 7, 2025, Home BancShares, Inc. and its subsidiary Centennial Bank announced a merger agreement to acquire Mountain Commerce Bancorp, Inc. and its subsidiary Mountain Commerce Bank. The all-stock transaction is valued at approximately $150.1 million and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. This merger will allow Home BancShares to expand into key Tennessee markets, including Knoxville, Nashville, and Johnson City, enhancing its market presence and positioning it among the 75 largest banks in the United States. The merger is anticipated to be immediately accretive to Home BancShares’ earnings and book value, with strategic benefits expected from the expanded geographic footprint and enhanced operational profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOMB) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Home Bancshares stock, see the HOMB Stock Forecast page.