Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.97B
• Dividend Yield: 3.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -15.99%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): -2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 111,850,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,465,206
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,936,404
• PEG Ratio: -0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.43
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 13.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.74B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(10.61% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is held back primarily by mixed financial performance (high historical leverage and recent profitability/cash-flow deterioration) and weak technicals (below key moving averages with bearish MACD). Valuation is a bright spot with a low P/E and ~3.8% dividend yield, but the latest earnings call reinforces near-term pressure from tariffs, lower volumes, and transition-year guidance.

Positive Factors

Brand & Dealer Network

Harley’s enduring brand equity and independent dealer network underpin recurring parts, accessories and merchandise revenue tied to an installed base. A deliberate product and brand reorientation toward customization and accessible price points supports customer retention and aftermarket margin durability across cycles.

HDFS Capital-Light Transformation

HDFS’s shift to a capital-light model and record operating income materially improves cash generation and reduces funding risk long-term. The receivables transaction and lower capital requirements create a more stable, higher-return finance business that can sustainably contribute to parent cash flow and shareholder returns.

Liquidity & Cost Savings Trajectory

A materially stronger cash position combined with targeted $150M+ run-rate savings increases financial flexibility and supports investments while buffering cyclical downturns. Sustained liquidity and structural cost reductions enhance resilience and improve the company’s ability to execute its strategic reset over the next 2–3 years.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage & Balance-Sheet Uncertainty

Historically high leverage constrained flexibility in this cyclical industry, amplifying downside during volume declines. The anomalous 2025 debt reporting reduces confidence in balance-sheet transparency, making assessment of debt servicing capacity and long-term capital allocation more uncertain for investors and creditors.

Revenue & Earnings Deterioration

Sustained declines in shipments and revenue signal weakening demand and structural headwinds for the core motorcycle business. Persistent top-line erosion pressures operating leverage, reduces ability to cover fixed costs, and raises the risk that margins and free cash flow remain impaired until volumes stabilize or product mix improves.

Tariffs & Margin Headwinds

Rising tariffs are a structural cost pressure that directly compress gross margins and impair competitiveness on key models. Absent durable offsetting pricing power or supply-chain redesign, tariff-driven cost increases will persistently weigh on profitability and could force trade-offs between margin recovery and market share.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes both new and used models. The company also earns significant income from the sale of parts and accessories, apparel, and branded merchandise, which enhance the riding experience and promote the Harley-Davidson lifestyle. Additionally, the company offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with dealers and collaborations with other brands help expand its market reach. Seasonal promotions, events, and a strong brand community further drive sales and customer loyalty, impacting the overall earnings of the company.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and free cash flow have been solid historically, but leverage has been a key constraint and the latest annual snapshot shows deterioration (lower revenue/earnings, sharply lower operating cash flow) plus an unusual negative EBITDA reading that adds uncertainty.

Income Statement

Profitability was solid from 2021–2024, with healthy gross and net margins and strong earnings power in 2022–2023. However, revenue has been choppy (down in 2020 and 2024, modest growth in 2022–2023) and the 2025 annual data shows a notable step-down in revenue and earnings versus 2024. Also, the 2025 annual EBITDA is negative despite positive EBIT and net income, which raises a quality/consistency flag in the reported figures and adds uncertainty around underlying operating performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint: debt-to-equity stayed elevated around ~2.2–2.7 in 2021–2024 (and was very high in 2020), which limits flexibility in a cyclical industry. Returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, indicating the company has been able to generate attractive profits on its capital base, but that return profile is supported by meaningful leverage. The 2025 annual debt level is dramatically lower than prior years, suggesting either a major balance-sheet change or reporting inconsistency versus 2024; until that is reconciled, balance-sheet risk is harder to underwrite confidently.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been a strength, with operating cash flow consistently positive and free cash flow positive every year shown. Free cash flow has typically covered a large portion of net income (roughly ~0.72–0.89 in 2020–2024), supporting earnings quality. That said, cash flow has been volatile (free cash flow declined in 2021 and 2022, rebounded in 2023–2024, then dropped sharply in 2025 versus 2024), and cash flow relative to debt service needs can be pressured given the historically high leverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.47B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B
Gross Profit	1.35B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B
EBITDA	492.18M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B
Net Income	338.74M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.04B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.09B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B
Total Debt	3.05B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B
Total Liabilities	4.89B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B
Stockholders Equity	3.14B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	415.24M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M
Operating Cash Flow	568.92M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M
Investing Cash Flow	3.78B	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.01B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.63
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.95, below the 50-day MA of 19.73, and below the 200-day MA of 23.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	69 Neutral	$2.99B	15.99	13.76%	3.72%	5.74%	39.40%
WGO	63 Neutral	$955.83M	46.39	2.98%	3.42%	1.38%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BC	58 Neutral	$4.47B	-35.47	-7.80%	2.27%	-4.78%	-189.89%
THO	55 Neutral	$4.33B	82.80	7.01%	1.94%	1.43%	34.76%
HOG	52 Neutral	$1.97B	7.26	10.26%	3.47%	-15.99%	-6.76%
PII	51 Neutral	$2.86B	-7.73	-42.42%	3.99%	-9.39%	-173.86%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Plans Measured Share Repurchases Under 10b5-1

On its Q4 2025 earnings call held on February 10, 2026, Harley-Davidson said it would take a measured approach to share repurchases while finalizing its strategic plan. In line with that stance, the company intends to adopt a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan on or before March 13, 2026 to buy back a modest amount of stock over the coming months, with further details expected on its Q1 2026 earnings call.

The move signals a cautious capital-allocation posture as management balances returning cash to shareholders with strategic investments. Investors will look to the upcoming Q1 2026 update for clarity on how share repurchases fit into Harley-Davidson’s longer-term plan and what that implies for capital deployment and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.

Harley-Davidson Outlines 2026 Outlook Amid Operational Reset

Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, showing a sharp downturn at its core Motor Company business but record earnings at its finance arm. Consolidated 2025 revenue fell 14% and operating income declined 7%, as HDMC swung to a $29 million operating loss on lower shipments, weaker gross margins driven by tariffs and negative operating leverage, and slightly higher operating expenses.

Fourth-quarter 2025 underscored the pressure on the business, with consolidated revenue down 28%, a deeper $361 million operating loss and a diluted EPS loss of $2.44. Global retail motorcycle sales for 2025 fell 12% to 132,535 units and shipments dropped 16%, though North American retail sales grew 5% in the quarter as management moved to reduce dealer inventory, which ended the year 17% lower than late 2024.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services was a bright spot, delivering record 2025 operating income of $490 million, aided by a strategic transaction with KKR and PIMCO that reduced HDFS debt, lowered capital needs and enabled a $1 billion dividend to the parent. The group returned $434 million to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in 2025, while LiveWire posted a $75 million operating loss in line with expectations.

For 2026, Harley-Davidson projected HDMC retail and wholesale volumes of 130,000 to 135,000 units and an HDMC operating result ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, alongside sharply lower HDFS operating income and a LiveWire loss of $70 million to $80 million. The company, which plans $175 million to $200 million in capital investments, framed these targets as part of a broader effort to stabilize operations, realign wholesale with retail demand and reset long-term earnings power ahead of a new strategic plan expected in May 2026.

Separately, on February 9, 2026, board member James Duncan Farley, Jr. informed the company he would not stand for re-election at the upcoming annual meeting, a decision not tied to any dispute over company matters. The board is expected to reduce its size from nine to eight directors following the meeting, signaling a modest governance shift as Harley-Davidson navigates its operational reset.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.