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Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)
NASDAQ:HLIT
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Harmonic (HLIT) AI Stock Analysis

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HLIT

Harmonic

(NASDAQ:HLIT)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(17.51%Upside)
Harmonic's robust financial performance and positive earnings call insights are the most significant factors supporting its stock score. While technical analysis suggests bearish momentum, this is balanced by a reasonable valuation. The company's strategic focus on growth areas and effective cash management further bolster its position.
Positive Factors
Earnings
HLIT beat lowered 2Q revenue/EPS estimates by +8%/+$.07 vs consensus.
Market Position
The Comcast transition to D4U is seen as improving HLIT's strong competitive market position.
Revenue Growth
HLIT delivered a very strong 4Q24 with revenue increasing by 33%.
Negative Factors
Customer Challenges
Harmonic faces challenges in renegotiating customer pricing and supply chain realignment with little leverage at its two major customers.
Guidance Withdrawal
The company has withdrawn its 2025 guidance due to tariffs, indicating uncertainty in its future outlook.
Revenue Miss
Broadband revenues missed $100MM for the 7th in 10 quarters.

Harmonic (HLIT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Harmonic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provide video delivery software, products, system solutions, and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Video and Cable Access. The Video segment sells video processing, production, and playout solutions and services to cable operators, and satellite and telecommunications Pay-TV service providers, as well as to broadcast and media, including streaming media companies. This segment's video processing appliance solutions include network management and application software, and hardware products, such as encoders, video servers, high-density stream processing systems, and edge processors. This segment also provides software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions, which enables the packaging and delivery of streaming services, including live streaming, video-on-demand, catch-up TV, start-over TV, network-DVR, and cloud-DVR services through HTTP streaming to various device along with dynamic and personal ad insertion. The Cable Access segment offers CableOS software-based cable access solutions; and CableOS central cloud services primarily to cable operators. Its products enable customers to create, prepare, store, playout, and deliver a range of broadcast and streaming video services to consumer devices, including televisions, personal computers, laptops, tablets, and smart phones. The company also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmonic Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its video and cable access products, along with associated software and services. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of video processing and delivery solutions to broadcasters, streaming service providers, and cable operators. Additionally, Harmonic provides subscription-based cloud services for video delivery, which further contributes to its earnings. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with technology and media companies to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Maintenance and support services provide an additional revenue source, ensuring ongoing customer engagement and satisfaction.

Harmonic Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.89%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in video and fiber segments, with a strategic focus on fiber and innovative product launches. However, challenges in the broadband segment and uncertainties regarding tariffs and customer CapEx plans pose potential risks. The company remains optimistic about future growth, particularly in 2026.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fiber Revenue
The company achieved record fiber revenue in the second quarter, driven by both existing customers and new customer wins. This was highlighted by the introduction of the SeaStar optical node and a high-profile showcase with Vodafone.
Strong Video Segment Performance
The Video segment delivered $51.1 million in revenue, reflecting an 11.6% year-over-year increase, with a record $15.4 million in SaaS streaming revenue driven by live sports streaming.
Successful Capital Return to Shareholders
Harmonic repurchased an additional $14 million of outstanding common shares, bringing total repurchases under the current program to $50.1 million.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Despite challenges, the company maintained a strong cash position of $123.9 million, a notable increase of $78 million versus the same quarter a year ago.
Growth in Broadband 'Rest of World' Revenue
The Broadband 'Rest of World' segment showed significant growth, contributing to the diversification of the company's revenue streams.
Negative Updates
Broadband Segment Challenges
Broadband revenue and adjusted EBITDA were down year-over-year due to industry headwinds, with Q3 guidance reflecting a cautious outlook.
Challenges with Tariffs
While the impact in Q2 was less than anticipated, the tariff situation remains fluid, with potential impacts on future quarters.
Uncertainty in Customer CapEx
Uncertainty regarding customer CapEx spending, particularly for major customers like Charter, could impact future revenue growth.
Company Guidance
During the Harmonic Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported robust financial performance, surpassing guidance in both its Broadband and Video segments. Revenue reached $138 million, driven by record fiber revenue and significant growth in Broadband and SaaS streaming. The company repurchased $14 million of common shares, increasing total repurchases under the current program to $50.1 million. Harmonic ended the quarter with a backlog and deferred revenue of $504.5 million, reflecting sustained customer demand. Broadband revenue was $86.9 million with a gross margin of 46.5%, while the Video segment contributed $51.1 million in revenue, including a record $15.4 million from SaaS streaming. Despite minimal tariff impact this quarter, the company remains cautious due to the uncertain global trade environment. Looking ahead, Harmonic anticipates revenue growth to resume in 2026, supported by the adoption of Unified DOCSIS 4.0, recent customer wins, and accelerated customer deployments.

Harmonic Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Harmonic shows strong revenue and profit growth with improved margins and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable, but strategic asset management is needed to support future growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Harmonic's income statement reflects strong revenue growth with a 13.5% increase in TTM over the previous year. Gross profit margin improved to 54.81% from 54.04%, and net profit margin showed significant improvement to 7.72%, driven by a notable increase in net income. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the company must maintain this trajectory to ensure long-term profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Harmonic displays a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 57.67%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.30, reflecting manageable leverage levels. Return on equity improved to 11.93%, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, total assets declined slightly, which could impact future growth.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Harmonic's cash flow statement is robust, with free cash flow growing significantly by 107.7% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.23 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.06 further underscores the company's solid cash flow management. Continued focus on cash flow sustainability will be crucial moving forward.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue678.72M607.91M624.96M507.15M378.83M
Gross Profit365.92M312.55M315.88M259.74M195.00M
EBITDA77.40M34.09M61.65M32.54M999.00K
Net Income39.22M83.99M28.18M13.25M-29.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets796.51M768.21M710.02M693.69M591.52M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments101.46M84.27M89.59M133.43M98.64M
Total Debt148.31M156.05M160.78M190.21M151.36M
Total Liabilities331.25M331.33M385.51M396.89M333.22M
Stockholders Equity465.26M436.87M324.51M296.80M258.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow52.73M-1.42M-3.77M28.04M6.96M
Operating Cash Flow61.92M7.06M5.48M41.02M39.16M
Investing Cash Flow-9.19M-8.47M-1.29M-12.97M-32.20M
Financing Cash Flow-33.27M-4.99M-43.13M7.94M-2.11M

Harmonic Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.51
Price Trends
50DMA
9.22
Negative
100DMA
9.32
Negative
200DMA
10.78
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.14
Positive
RSI
38.36
Neutral
STOCH
57.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLIT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.19, below the 50-day MA of 9.22, and below the 200-day MA of 10.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLIT.

Harmonic Risk Analysis

Harmonic disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmonic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Harmonic Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$791.37M14.3330.02%4.47%3.73%11.24%
75
Outperform
$986.20M15.3716.36%24.14%16.17%
71
Outperform
$1.25B29.407.30%-4.47%195.28%
66
Neutral
$761.11M-66.95%-10.18%75.30%
63
Neutral
$1.81B17.08%-19.10%93.30%
62
Neutral
£503.40M23.45-8.55%2.78%4.81%-18.71%
59
Neutral
$606.63M-0.68%-2.14%44.13%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HLIT
Harmonic
8.51
-5.99
-41.31%
ADTN
Adtran
9.29
2.87
44.70%
CLFD
Clearfield
43.81
1.17
2.74%
DGII
Digi International
32.61
7.50
29.87%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
39.50
14.34
57.00%
COMM
CommScope Holding
8.20
5.69
226.69%

Harmonic Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Harmonic Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

Harmonic held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on June 12, 2025. During the meeting, all proposed matters were approved, including the election of eight directors, the advisory approval of executive compensation, an amendment to the Employee Stock Purchase Plan, the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan, and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLIT) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmonic stock, see the HLIT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025