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Harmonic
(NASDAQ:HLIT)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(7.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/09/26
The score is driven by solid guidance and demand visibility from the latest earnings call (raised outlook, record backlog, strong Q1 execution), partially offset by weaker TTM profitability and revenue trend in financials. Technicals are broadly neutral with mixed momentum signals, while valuation is restrained by a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A record backlog of $582M (up 87% y/y) with ~60% expected to convert within 12 months provides durable revenue visibility, aids production planning, and supports multi-quarter demand predictability. This reduces short-term cyclicality risk and underpins capital allocation and margin leverage as deployments scale.
Negative Factors
High Customer Concentration
Revenue concentration (two customers = 58% of Q1 broadband revenue) is a persistent structural risk to cash flow and negotiating leverage. Large customer order changes or pricing pressure could materially affect topline and working capital, undermining the stability implied by backlog and margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A record backlog of $582M (up 87% y/y) with ~60% expected to convert within 12 months provides durable revenue visibility, aids production planning, and supports multi-quarter demand predictability. This reduces short-term cyclicality risk and underpins capital allocation and margin leverage as deployments scale.
Read all positive factors
Harmonic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Harmonic (HLIT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth-28.05%
EPS Growth-171.21%
CountryUS
Employees521
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding108,496,440
10 Day Avg. Volume1,455,592
30 Day Avg. Volume1,960,849
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.93
Price to Sales (P/S)3.12
P/FCF Ratio11.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside56.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$490.44M
Harmonic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmonic Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates globally, delivering advanced software, hardware, system solutions, and related services for video content distribution. The company's business activities are structured into two main div...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmonic makes money primarily by selling and supporting video and broadband delivery products and services. Revenue is generated from (1) product and solution sales, including software and purpose-built/virtualized platforms used for video stream...
Harmonic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a notably positive operational and financial update: strong top-line growth (Q2 revenue +54% YoY), record bookings and backlog, raised full-year guidance, improved profitability and a sizable cash infusion from the Video sale. Product momentum across fiber, DOCSIS 4.0, and the intelligence platform, plus a very high customer NPS (87), support continued growth. Key risks include customer concentration (two customers representing 63% of revenue), elevated inventory and memory cost pressures (built-in ~$3M/quarter), stranded costs from the Video divestiture (~$10M FY), and negative free cash flow in the quarter. On balance, the positive financial performance, improved visibility from backlog, and strategic progress materially outweigh the challenges called out.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q2 Broadband revenue grew 54% year-over-year to $133.5 million, above the guidance range of $115M–$125M and the company’s strongest second quarter ever.
Negative Updates
Revenue Concentration Risk
Two customers each accounted for more than 10% of Q2 revenue and together represented 63% of total revenue, indicating high concentration despite rest-of-market diversification.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q2 Broadband revenue grew 54% year-over-year to $133.5 million, above the guidance range of $115M–$125M and the company’s strongest second quarter ever.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harmonic raised its full‑year 2026 Broadband revenue outlook to $505–$525M (from $475–$495M prior) and guided Q3’26 Broadband revenue of $125–$135M; gross margin guidance is 51–52% for both Q3 and the full year, Q3 operating profit $23–$28M (including ~$2.3M of stranded Video costs) and full‑year operating profit $99–$111M (including ~ $10M stranded costs, ~30% of which management expects to be eliminated within a year); EPS guidance is $0.15–$0.19 for Q3 and $0.67–$0.75 for the year (≈$0.09, or 14.5%, higher at the midpoint versus prior guidance). Management built roughly $3M/quarter of net unrecovered memory costs into second‑half guidance, lowered the expected non‑GAAP tax rate to ~23% (from 24.5%), and cited supporting KPIs including Q2 revenue of $133.5M (+54% YoY), Q2 EPS $0.21, bookings of $144M, book‑to‑bill 1.1 (rest‑of‑market >1.5), record backlog/deferred revenue ≈$588M (+71% YoY) with ~73% converting within 12 months, cash ≈$232M and an $85M undrawn credit facility.Harmonic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 495.77M | 360.52M | 678.72M | 607.91M | 624.96M | 507.15M |
| Gross Profit | 251.39M | 163.66M | 365.92M | 312.55M | 315.88M | 259.74M |
| EBITDA | 65.06M | 23.74M | 77.40M | 34.09M | 61.65M | 32.55M |
| Net Income | -47.14M | -43.31M | 39.22M | 83.99M | 28.18M | 13.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 632.64M | 718.48M | 796.51M | 768.21M | 710.02M | 693.69M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.86M | 124.11M | 101.46M | 84.27M | 89.59M | 133.43M |
| Total Debt | 130.12M | 147.84M | 148.31M | 156.05M | 160.78M | 190.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 272.30M | 335.24M | 331.25M | 331.33M | 385.51M | 396.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 360.35M | 383.25M | 465.26M | 436.87M | 324.51M | 296.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.91M | 96.89M | 52.73M | -1.42M | -3.77M | 28.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 62.32M | 107.97M | 61.92M | 7.06M | 5.48M | 41.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 123.55M | -11.08M | -9.19M | -8.47M | -1.29M | -12.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -78.47M | -81.39M | -33.27M | -4.99M | -43.13M | 7.94M |
Harmonic Technical Analysis
Positive
11.19
Price Trends
13.29
Positive
12.47
Positive
11.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Negative
62.76
Neutral
58.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLIT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.84, below the 50-day MA of 13.29, and below the 200-day MA of 11.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLIT.
Harmonic Risk Analysis
Harmonic disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmonic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmonic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $440.18B | 33.24 | 25.14% | 1.45% | 11.77% | 27.65% | |
68 Neutral | $60.69B | 138.76 | 15.65% | ― | 30.59% | 323.23% | |
66 Neutral | $2.49B | 50.05 | 6.54% | ― | 27.84% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $34.18B | 13.17 | 23.57% | 3.35% | 2.72% | 56.42% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51B | -33.14 | -12.23% | ― | -28.05% | -171.21% | |
51 Neutral | $10.74B | -339.10 | -3.16% | ― | 40.03% | -193.79% |
* Technology Sector Average
HLIT
Harmonic
13.92
4.87
53.81%
CALX
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39.54
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-31.60%
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428.77
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CSCO
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111.68
46.09
70.27%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
10.27
2.75
36.55%
VIAV
Viavi Solutions
43.54
32.82
305.97%
Harmonic Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Harmonic Advances Strategic Sale of Video Business Assets
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Harmonic Inc. entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement to sell its Video Business to Leone Media Inc., which operates as MediaKind, for $145 million in cash, subject to customary post-closing adjustments. The company confirmed t...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Harmonic Shareholders Approve Proposals at 2026 Annual Meeting
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
Harmonic held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on June 4, 2026, with a quorum of 94,717,006 shares represented out of 108,477,403 shares outstanding as of the April 8, 2026 record date. All proposals on the agenda were approved by...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.