Adtran (ADTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $758.70M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 14.33%
• EPS Growth: 83.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,091
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 80,116,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,315,459
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,014,596
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.42
• 1Y Price Target: $12.50
• Price Target Upside: 32.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(0.32% Upside)

Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, high leverage, and declining free cash flow growth). Offsetting factors include constructive price/momentum signals and a positive earnings-call setup with improving non-GAAP profitability and supportive guidance, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth, especially in Optical Networking and Subscriber Solutions, indicates strong market demand and product adoption.

Product Innovation

New product introductions like Mosaic One Clarity demonstrate Adtran's commitment to innovation, enhancing customer satisfaction and competitive edge.

Financial Restructuring

Improved financial flexibility through strategic financing enhances Adtran's ability to invest in growth and manage debt effectively.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting Adtran's ability to navigate economic fluctuations.

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues highlight challenges in cost management and pricing power, affecting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Weakness

Weak cash flow generation limits Adtran's ability to reinvest in business operations and manage financial obligations effectively.

Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Adtran generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its hardware and software products to telecommunications service providers and enterprises. Its key revenue sources include the sale of broadband access equipment, which encompasses fiber access and DSL technologies, as well as optical networking systems that facilitate high-speed data transmission. Additionally, Adtran earns revenue through subscription-based services and software licensing, which provide ongoing support and updates to its customers. The company often enters into strategic partnerships with telecom operators and technology providers, enabling it to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. Overall, Adtran's earnings are significantly influenced by the demand for high-speed internet services, the growth of broadband infrastructure, and the increasing adoption of cloud-based networking solutions.

Adtran Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: modest TTM revenue growth, but profitability remains weak with negative net income/EBIT margins. Balance sheet leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity 1.55) with negative ROE, and cash generation is inconsistent with negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Adtran's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 5.26%, but the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively stable at 37.92%, suggesting some efficiency in cost management. However, the persistent negative net income and EBIT margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.55 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high leverage suggests potential financial risk. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial instability with high leverage and negative returns.

Cash Flow

Adtran's cash flow statement presents a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, indicating some ability to convert income into cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative at -24.99%, pointing to challenges in generating free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.62 suggests some efficiency in cash generation relative to net income, but overall cash flow performance is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.04B	922.72M	1.15B	1.03B	563.00M	506.51M
Gross Profit	392.46M	324.16M	331.13M	327.25M	218.38M	217.55M
EBITDA	35.50M	-330.14M	-104.36M	27.00K	9.81M	10.39M
Net Income	-87.98M	-459.89M	-267.69M	-2.04M	-8.63M	2.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.21B	1.17B	1.68B	1.94B	569.02M	525.68M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	93.68M	76.02M	87.17M	108.98M	56.95M	63.31M
Total Debt	243.83M	215.50M	234.14M	143.34M	3.27M	5.38M
Total Liabilities	665.24M	621.52M	628.86M	639.88M	211.91M	152.74M
Stockholders Equity	141.58M	126.95M	605.26M	973.95M	357.10M	372.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.92M	38.40M	-79.35M	-61.30M	-2.66M	-22.93M
Operating Cash Flow	92.07M	103.57M	-43.02M	-44.23M	3.01M	-16.52M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.45M	-64.25M	-36.08M	55.83M	10.27M	41.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.40M	-50.01M	60.09M	52.94M	-12.96M	-42.98M

Adtran Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.29, above the 50-day MA of 8.79, and above the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADTN.

Adtran Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITRN	79 Outperform	$893.02M	16.26	28.62%	4.38%	5.20%	9.14%
DGII	76 Outperform	$1.75B	42.95	6.71%	―	1.46%	78.77%
HLIT	74 Outperform	$1.09B	22.87	11.38%	―	1.93%	-43.22%
GILT	70 Outperform	$1.37B	45.84	6.95%	―	29.67%	41.90%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ADTN	57 Neutral	$758.70M	-8.72	-48.44%	―	14.33%	83.32%
NTGR	49 Neutral	$572.88M	-22.18	-4.94%	―	2.95%	-228.28%

Adtran Corporate Events

Adtran Announces Strong Preliminary Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results

On January 21, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reported preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, disclosing the figures via an ad hoc announcement in Germany under EU market abuse regulations. The company said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is expected to reach $290 million to $293 million, exceeding its prior guidance of $275 million to $285 million, with full-year GAAP revenue projected at $1,082.2 million to $1,085.2 million. Preliminary GAAP operating margin for the quarter is anticipated at 1.4% to 1.7%, with non-GAAP operating margin at 6.0% to 6.9%, in line with earlier guidance, while full-year GAAP operating margin is expected to be slightly negative at between -1.5% and -1.4%, and full-year non-GAAP operating margin between 4.6% and 4.9%. Management indicated that non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter are expected to surpass analyst consensus, signaling stronger-than-expected demand and execution despite typical year-end seasonality, though the figures remain preliminary and subject to adjustment ahead of the final audited results to be released in late February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Extends CTO Christoph Glingener’s Employment Agreement

On December 9, 2025, Adtran Networks SE extended the employment agreement of its CTO, Christoph Glingener, through December 31, 2026, with an increased annual base salary of €400,000 starting October 1, 2025. The amendment also outlines incentive bonuses tied to the company’s revenue and earnings, as well as stock unit grants based on shareholder return, with a total annual remuneration cap of €2,800,000.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 23% year-over-year increase in revenue to $279.4 million. Despite a GAAP operating margin of -1.0%, the non-GAAP operating margin was 5.4%, reflecting disciplined execution and broad-based growth. The company remains focused on sustainable growth and maximizing long-term stockholder value, with expectations for fourth-quarter revenue between $275.0 million and $285.0 million and a non-GAAP operating margin of 3.5% to 7.5%.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.