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Adtran
(NASDAQ:ADTN)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-23.86% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD) and a still-challenged financial profile due to ongoing losses and elevated leverage, despite improving operations and positive cash generation. The latest earnings call adds modest support via optical and enterprise/cloud momentum plus refinancing benefits, but near-term guidance and supply/timing uncertainty keep risk elevated. Valuation provides limited support because earnings are negative and no dividend yield is available.
Positive Factors
Optical networking growth
Sustained double‑digit optical revenue growth signals structural exposure to rising fiber and transport demand. As optical becomes a larger revenue base, scalable product sales and higher-capacity networking wins can lift long-term revenue durability and support margin expansion vs legacy access hardware.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage materially above historical levels constrains strategic optionality and increases sensitivity to margin or cash setbacks. Even with refinancing, higher net debt raises covenant and refinancing risk, limits aggressive capital deployment, and leaves less buffer for cyclical downturns or execution slippage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Optical networking growth
Sustained double‑digit optical revenue growth signals structural exposure to rising fiber and transport demand. As optical becomes a larger revenue base, scalable product sales and higher-capacity networking wins can lift long-term revenue durability and support margin expansion vs legacy access hardware.
Read all positive factors
Adtran Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdtran (ADTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$664.89M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth15.75%
EPS Growth78.71%
CountryUS
Employees3,270
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.32
Shares Outstanding81,481,410
10 Day Avg. Volume1,944,726
30 Day Avg. Volume1,912,716
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)4.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.67Price Target Upside48.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.15B
Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. develops and provides network access solutions. It is a global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications equipment that enable voice, data, video and internet communications across any network infrastructu...
How the Company Makes Money
ADTRAN makes money primarily by selling networking equipment and software used to deploy and operate broadband and optical networks. Its core revenue streams are product revenues from access and aggregation platforms (used for last-mile broadband ...
Adtran Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: underlying demand and strategic progress are clear strengths — notably strong optical growth, meaningful diversification into enterprise/cloud/hyperscalers (+97% hyperscaler growth) and a beneficial refinancing — but near-term performance was negatively affected by a single large-customer timing change and ongoing supply-chain constraints that compressed margins, reduced sequential profitability and pressured cash. Management outlined mitigation steps (redesigns, pricing, targeted inventory and expense control) and reiterated longer-term margin targets, but Q3 guidance and component uncertainty indicate cautious near-term visibility.Positive Updates
Total Revenue Growth
Second quarter revenue of $281.1 million, up 6.1% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Missed Quarter Guidance from Single Customer Delay
Company missed guidance due to a project timing adjustment from a single large customer; management views the change as deferred demand but it materially impacted shipments and quarter results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Revenue Growth
Second quarter revenue of $281.1 million, up 6.1% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADTRAN guided third‑quarter revenue of $275–$295 million and non‑GAAP operating margin of 1.5%–5.5%, noting the outlook reflects customer deployment timing with continued strength in optical and healthy cloud/enterprise/government demand; Q2 actuals were revenue $281.1M with non‑GAAP operating margin ~3.8%, non‑GAAP gross margin 40.7% (vs. 41.4% in Q2’25 and 43.0% in Q1’26), non‑GAAP operating expenses $103.9M, non‑GAAP operating income $10.6M, non‑GAAP net income $3.4M ($0.04 per diluted share) and non‑GAAP tax expense $2.6M (33.7% rate). Product and geography metrics included Optical Networking $109.7M (+22% YoY, +13% seq), Access & Aggregation $86.9M (−5% YoY, −4% seq), Subscriber Solutions $84.5M (+1% YoY, −14% seq), U.S. revenue $134.4M (48% of total, +12% YoY) and non‑U.S. $146.7M (52%, +1% YoY); enterprise/government/cloud revenue grew 47% YoY and 19% sequentially to 25% of company revenue with hyperscalers +97% YoY. Balance sheet and cash flow signs: net working capital $245.2M, inventory $208.8M (107 days), AR $205.8M (DSO 67), AP $169.3M (DPO 65), operating cash flow $25.9M, free cash flow $8.7M, cash $79.2M (vs. $88.3M Mar 31), $22.6M of share repurchases/dividends, and a new senior secured facility that cuts borrowing costs by 200 bps and extends maturities to 2031; management reiterated long‑term targets of 42%–43% gross margin and a 10% non‑GAAP operating margin.Adtran Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.08B | 922.72M | 1.15B | 1.03B | 563.00M |
| Gross Profit | 437.79M | 414.95M | 324.16M | 331.13M | 327.25M | 218.38M |
| EBITDA | 116.17M | 80.64M | -330.14M | -104.36M | 27.00K | 9.81M |
| Net Income | -26.08M | -45.66M | -459.89M | -267.69M | -2.04M | -8.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.94B | 569.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 118.31M | 130.87M | 76.02M | 87.17M | 108.98M | 56.95M |
| Total Debt | 242.66M | 245.04M | 215.50M | 234.14M | 143.34M | 3.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 661.30M | 685.34M | 621.52M | 628.86M | 639.88M | 211.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 129.50M | 145.83M | 126.95M | 605.26M | 973.95M | 357.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.92M | 98.03M | 38.40M | -79.35M | -61.30M | -2.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 93.01M | 129.77M | 103.57M | -43.02M | -44.23M | 3.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.27M | -115.74M | -64.25M | -36.08M | 55.83M | 10.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.02M | -105.00K | -50.01M | 60.09M | 52.94M | -12.96M |
Adtran Technical Analysis
Negative
9.85
Price Trends
12.15
Negative
13.77
Negative
11.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.29
Negative
31.43
Neutral
33.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.09, below the 50-day MA of 12.15, and below the 200-day MA of 11.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADTN.
Adtran Risk Analysis
Adtran disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adtran reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adtran Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $1.08B | 16.57 | 28.54% | 5.48% | 15.79% | 15.69% | |
83 Outperform | $3.23B | 65.49 | 7.39% | ― | 20.26% | 11.95% | |
67 Neutral | $878.98M | 24.99 | 6.14% | ― | 39.47% | 14.43% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.30B | -31.14 | -12.23% | ― | -28.05% | -171.21% | |
57 Neutral | $657.73M | -16.43 | -8.42% | ― | -0.70% | -141.66% | |
46 Neutral | $664.89M | -25.40 | -18.82% | ― | 15.75% | 78.71% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADTN
Adtran
8.07
-0.87
-9.73%
DGII
Digi International
85.14
52.28
159.10%
GILT
Gilat
11.50
2.65
29.94%
HLIT
Harmonic
13.08
4.19
47.13%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
53.69
15.02
38.83%
NTGR
Netgear
23.82
-0.64
-2.62%
Adtran Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Adtran Extends CTO Contract, Enhances Performance-Based Compensation
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Adtran Networks SE amended the employment agreement of Chief Technology Officer and management board member Christoph Glingener, extending its term through December 31, 2026 while maintaining his annual base salary at €40...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Q2 2026 Results Highlight Optical Networking Momentum
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Adtran Holdings reported unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, posting revenue of $281.1 million, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, and net cash from operating activities of $25.9 million. The compa...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Adtran strengthens liquidity with new JPMorgan credit facility
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Adtran Holdings, Inc. entered into a new senior secured credit facility of up to $350 million led by JPMorgan, replacing its prior Wells Fargo arrangement and providing both U.S. and German borrowing capacity. The facility is sec...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Warns of Weaker Q2 Results and Margins
Negative
Jul 22, 2026
On July 21, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings announced preliminary unaudited results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, triggered by German ad hoc disclosure rules after performance fell short of prior guidance. Revenue is expected between $280 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Adtran adds veteran director to drive AI expansion
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Adtran Holdings’ board voted to expand its membership from six to seven directors and elected technology industry veteran Anne DelSanto as an independent director, effective July 1, 2026. She will also join the board’...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Adtran Shareholders Approve Officer Exculpation and Governance Updates
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders on May 13, 2026, Adtran Holdings’ investors approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation that eliminates monetary liability for certain officers in specific circumstances all...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.