Adtran (ADTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $598.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.76
• Revenue Growth: 14.33%
• EPS Growth: 83.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,091
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 80,116,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,480,826
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,844,340
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 36.43
• 1Y Price Target: $13.40
• Price Target Upside: 84.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▼(-3.45% Downside)

Adtran's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and technical analysis. The company faces significant challenges with profitability and high leverage, reflected in its financial statements. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, further weighing on the score. Valuation metrics are also concerning, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. While the earnings call highlighted some positive developments, these are overshadowed by the broader financial and technical challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth, particularly in Optical Networking and Subscriber Solutions, indicates robust demand and market expansion, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Optical Networking Expansion

Significant growth in Optical Networking highlights Adtran's competitive strength and potential for continued market leadership in high-demand sectors.

Financial Restructuring

Successful financial restructuring enhances Adtran's financial flexibility and capital structure, positioning it for sustainable growth and improved margins.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins, challenge Adtran's ability to generate sustainable earnings and shareholder value.

Cash Flow Weakness

Negative free cash flow growth indicates challenges in cash generation, which could impact Adtran's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Adtran generates revenue through the sale of its hardware products, including routers, switches, and optical networking equipment, as well as through recurring service contracts and software licensing. The company's primary revenue streams include direct sales to telecommunications service providers, which represent a significant portion of its income, as well as sales to enterprise customers seeking to improve their network infrastructure. Additionally, Adtran benefits from partnerships with major telecom operators and technology providers, which help expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services drives growth in Adtran's revenue, particularly in the deployment of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) solutions and other advanced networking technologies.

Adtran Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adtran's financial statements reflect significant challenges. Despite some revenue growth, profitability remains elusive with negative margins. The balance sheet shows high leverage, increasing financial risk. Cash flow generation is inconsistent, with negative free cash flow growth. Overall, Adtran needs to address profitability and leverage issues to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Adtran's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 5.26%, but the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively stable at 37.92%, suggesting some efficiency in cost management. However, the persistent negative net income and EBIT margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.55 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high leverage suggests potential financial risk. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial instability with high leverage and negative returns.

Cash Flow

Adtran's cash flow statement presents a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, indicating some ability to convert income into cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative at -24.99%, pointing to challenges in generating free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.62 suggests some efficiency in cash generation relative to net income, but overall cash flow performance is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.04B	922.72M	1.15B	1.03B	563.00M	506.51M
Gross Profit	392.46M	324.16M	331.13M	327.25M	218.38M	217.55M
EBITDA	35.50M	-330.14M	-104.36M	27.00K	9.81M	10.39M
Net Income	-87.98M	-459.89M	-267.69M	-2.04M	-8.63M	2.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.21B	1.17B	1.68B	1.94B	569.02M	525.68M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	93.68M	76.02M	87.17M	108.98M	56.95M	63.31M
Total Debt	243.83M	215.50M	234.14M	143.34M	3.27M	5.38M
Total Liabilities	665.24M	621.52M	628.86M	639.88M	211.91M	152.74M
Stockholders Equity	141.58M	126.95M	605.26M	973.95M	357.10M	372.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.92M	38.40M	-79.35M	-61.30M	-2.66M	-22.93M
Operating Cash Flow	92.07M	103.57M	-43.02M	-44.23M	3.01M	-16.52M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.45M	-64.25M	-36.08M	55.83M	10.27M	41.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.40M	-50.01M	60.09M	52.94M	-12.96M	-42.98M

Adtran Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.85, below the 50-day MA of 9.15, and below the 200-day MA of 8.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADTN.

Adtran Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DGII	76 Outperform	$1.42B	34.95	6.71%	―	1.46%	78.77%
ITRN	76 Outperform	$728.50M	13.12	28.62%	5.15%	5.20%	9.14%
GILT	72 Outperform	$801.90M	31.82	6.95%	―	29.67%	41.90%
HLIT	70 Outperform	$1.19B	24.62	11.38%	―	1.93%	-43.22%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NTGR	49 Neutral	$718.59M	―	-4.94%	―	2.95%	-228.28%
ADTN	41 Neutral	$598.47M	―	-48.44%	―	14.33%	83.32%

Adtran Corporate Events

ADTRAN Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is a global provider of networking and communications solutions that enable voice, data, video, and internet communications across any network infrastructure, serving service providers, private enterprises, government organizations, and millions of individual users worldwide.

Adtran Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

Adtran Inc’s latest earnings call paints a picture of positive momentum, highlighted by robust revenue growth in key segments such as Optical Networking and Subscriber Solutions. The company has successfully navigated financial restructuring, although challenges persist with seasonal buying patterns, real estate sales, and currency volatility.

Adtran Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 23% year-over-year increase in revenue to $279.4 million. Despite a GAAP operating margin of -1.0%, the non-GAAP operating margin was 5.4%, reflecting disciplined execution and broad-based growth. The company remains focused on sustainable growth and maximizing long-term stockholder value, with expectations for fourth-quarter revenue between $275.0 million and $285.0 million and a non-GAAP operating margin of 3.5% to 7.5%.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Issues $201.25M Convertible Senior Notes

On September 19, 2025, Adtran Holdings, Inc. issued $201.25 million in 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2030, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $26.25 million, which was fully exercised. These notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, will accrue interest semi-annually and mature in 2030, with specific conversion rights and redemption options. Additionally, Adtran entered into capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution upon note conversion, with a cap price set at a 75% premium over the current stock price.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Announces $175 Million Convertible Notes Offering

On September 16, 2025, Adtran Holdings, Inc. announced the Sixth Amendment to its Wells Fargo Credit Agreement, allowing the issuance of $230 million in new unsecured convertible debt. This move aims to repay outstanding loans and finance the purchase of additional shares in its German subsidiary, Adtran Networks SE. Additionally, on September 17, 2025, ADTRAN announced the pricing of a $175 million convertible senior notes offering, with plans to use proceeds to repay borrowings and fund capped call transactions to mitigate stock dilution. This strategic financial maneuvering is expected to enhance ADTRAN’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.