Adtran Inc (ADTN)
NASDAQ:ADTN
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Adtran
(NASDAQ:ADTN)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(6.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
ADTN scores as moderate: improved revenue/margins and constructive earnings-call momentum support the outlook, and technicals show a strong uptrend. The score is held back by weak underlying profitability and balance-sheet leverage, plus limited valuation support given a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Optical networking momentum
Sustained optical revenue growth indicates durable demand for higher-bandwidth transport products. Optical wins diversify revenue mix toward higher-growth, higher-value product lines and position the company to capture vendor-replacement and hyperscaler spending, supporting medium-term top-line and margin improvement.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weakened equity
High debt relative to a reduced equity base limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Negative returns on equity reflect ongoing losses, constraining the company’s ability to fund strategic initiatives or absorb shocks without prioritized deleveraging or materially stronger cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Optical networking momentum
Sustained optical revenue growth indicates durable demand for higher-bandwidth transport products. Optical wins diversify revenue mix toward higher-growth, higher-value product lines and position the company to capture vendor-replacement and hyperscaler spending, supporting medium-term top-line and margin improvement.
Read all positive factors
Adtran Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdtran (ADTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth18.84%
EPS Growth77.12%
CountryUS
Employees3,091
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.45
Shares Outstanding80,998,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,934,179
30 Day Avg. Volume2,672,203
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)4.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside12.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.19B
Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and international...
How the Company Makes Money
ADTRAN makes money primarily by selling networking hardware, software, and related services used to build and operate broadband and telecom networks. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Product revenue from access and aggregation infrastruc...
Adtran Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational progress: meaningful top-line growth (+15.5% YoY), strong optical and subscriber performance, meaningful margin expansion (non-GAAP operating margin up ~300 bps YoY), and promising product and AI initiatives (LiteWave800, Mosaic One). These positives are tempered by persistent supply-chain pressures (memory and freight), near-term cash/working-capital strain (negative FCF, elevated inventory), regional geopolitical impacts, and uncertainty about the pace of BEAD-driven revenue. On balance, the positive revenue and margin trends and product momentum outweigh the challenges, though risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Negative Updates
Elevated Supply-Chain Costs (Memory & Freight)
Industry-wide elevated memory pricing and higher freight costs pressured the quarter; freight expense was higher than expected and management expects freight to remain 'messy' in the near term. Memory cost pressures remain a risk and could deteriorate further.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADTRAN guided Q2 FY2026 revenue of $283M–$303M and non‑GAAP operating margin of 5%–9% (noting it did not provide a reconciliation for the quarter’s non‑GAAP margin), assuming a similar freight and memory cost environment as Q1; that outlook follows Q1 results of $286.1M revenue (up 15.5% YoY), non‑GAAP gross margin 43% (up 55 bps YoY), non‑GAAP operating income $19.9M (6.9% margin), non‑GAAP net income $11.0M ($0.14 diluted) and a non‑GAAP tax rate of 25.5%, with operating cash flow $12.7M, free cash flow −$3.3M, cash $88.3M, net working capital $253.9M, inventory $209M (110 days), receivables $215.5M (DSO 68 days) and payables $170.6M (DPO 66 days); management also reiterated expectations that optical revenue and BEAD‑related orders will build through the year.Adtran Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.12B | 1.08B | 922.72M | 1.15B | 1.03B | 563.00M |
| Gross Profit | 432.77M | 414.95M | 324.16M | 331.13M | 327.25M | 218.38M |
| EBITDA | 81.68M | 80.64M | -330.14M | -104.36M | 27.00K | 9.81M |
| Net Income | -35.71M | -45.66M | -459.89M | -267.69M | -2.04M | -8.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.20B | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.94B | 569.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 88.27M | 130.87M | 76.02M | 87.17M | 108.98M | 56.95M |
| Total Debt | 218.37M | 245.04M | 215.50M | 234.14M | 143.34M | 3.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 678.52M | 685.34M | 621.52M | 628.86M | 639.88M | 211.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 137.53M | 145.83M | 126.95M | 605.26M | 973.95M | 357.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.27M | 98.03M | 38.40M | -79.35M | -61.30M | -2.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.26M | 129.77M | 103.57M | -43.02M | -44.23M | 3.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -93.90M | -115.74M | -64.25M | -36.08M | 55.83M | 10.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.47M | -105.00K | -50.01M | 60.09M | 52.94M | -12.96M |
Adtran Technical Analysis
Positive
16.96
Price Trends
14.93
Positive
12.31
Positive
10.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
69.95
Neutral
86.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.94, above the 50-day MA of 14.93, and above the 200-day MA of 10.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADTN.
Adtran Risk Analysis
Adtran disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adtran reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adtran Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $1.27B | 21.37 | 28.54% | 4.38% | 11.12% | 9.16% | |
70 Outperform | $2.52B | 59.39 | 6.72% | ― | 13.48% | 0.69% | |
66 Neutral | $1.32B | 41.59 | 7.33% | ― | 46.26% | 111.78% | |
66 Neutral | $1.86B | ― | -10.31% | ― | -27.47% | -181.91% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.57B | -38.06 | -24.02% | ― | 18.84% | 77.12% | |
55 Neutral | $692.47M | -18.05 | -7.97% | ― | 3.66% | -200.01% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADTN
Adtran
16.92
8.76
107.35%
DGII
Digi International
68.22
35.30
107.23%
GILT
Gilat
17.83
12.17
214.74%
HLIT
Harmonic
17.00
7.81
84.98%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
64.88
30.14
86.78%
NTGR
Netgear
25.71
-3.87
-13.08%
Adtran Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Adtran Shareholders Approve Officer Exculpation and Governance Updates
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders on May 13, 2026, Adtran Holdings’ investors approved an amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation that eliminates monetary liability for certain officers in specific circumstances all...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Reports Strong Q1 2026 Growth and Outlook
Positive
May 5, 2026
Adtran reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, 2026, posting revenue of $286.1 million, a 15.5% year-over-year increase, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 39.5% and 43.0% and operating margins of 2.2% and 6.9%, respectively. ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Adtran Shifts Executive Pay Toward Earnings-Based Performance Metrics
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Adtran amended the employment agreement of President, CEO and Chairman Thomas R. Stanton, eliminating annual performance share unit awards tied solely to relative total shareholder return and revising his long-term PSU structure ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.