Adtran Inc (ADTN)
NASDAQ:ADTN
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Adtran
(NASDAQ:ADTN)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(14.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/05/26
The score reflects mixed fundamentals: weak and volatile profitability and revenue trends are the biggest drag, partly offset by improved recent cash flow and a stronger technical uptrend. Earnings-call commentary and guidance were generally constructive on growth and margin progress but flagged working-capital and cost pressures. Valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
ADTRAN has moved to positive operating and free cash flow in recent annual periods, strengthening its ability to fund capex, R&D and working-capital needs internally. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports sustained execution on fiber, optical and product roadmap investments.
Negative Factors
Weak, volatile profitability
Persistent net losses and inconsistent operating margins undermine the company's ability to compound returns and reinvest from earnings. Until margins and net income stabilize, ADTRAN remains dependent on cash generation or external capital for long-term growth initiatives, increasing execution risk over multiple business cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
ADTRAN has moved to positive operating and free cash flow in recent annual periods, strengthening its ability to fund capex, R&D and working-capital needs internally. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports sustained execution on fiber, optical and product roadmap investments.
Read all positive factors
Adtran (ADTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.0
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue Growth18.84%
EPS Growth77.12%
CountryUS
Employees3,091
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.57
Shares Outstanding80,698,204
10 Day Avg. Volume2,554,401
30 Day Avg. Volume2,053,841
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)4.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.88Price Target Upside5.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.18B
Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and international...
How the Company Makes Money
ADTRAN makes money primarily by selling networking hardware, software, and related services used to build and operate broadband and telecom networks. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Product revenue from access and aggregation infrastruc...
Adtran Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdtran Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational progress: meaningful top-line growth (+15.5% YoY), strong optical and subscriber performance, meaningful margin expansion (non-GAAP operating margin up ~300 bps YoY), and promising product and AI initiatives (LiteWave800, Mosaic One). These positives are tempered by persistent supply-chain pressures (memory and freight), near-term cash/working-capital strain (negative FCF, elevated inventory), regional geopolitical impacts, and uncertainty about the pace of BEAD-driven revenue. On balance, the positive revenue and margin trends and product momentum outweigh the challenges, though risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Negative Updates
Elevated Supply-Chain Costs (Memory & Freight)
Industry-wide elevated memory pricing and higher freight costs pressured the quarter; freight expense was higher than expected and management expects freight to remain 'messy' in the near term. Memory cost pressures remain a risk and could deteriorate further.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, returning to a more normalized seasonal pattern.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADTRAN guided Q2 FY2026 revenue of $283M–$303M and non‑GAAP operating margin of 5%–9% (noting it did not provide a reconciliation for the quarter’s non‑GAAP margin), assuming a similar freight and memory cost environment as Q1; that outlook follows Q1 results of $286.1M revenue (up 15.5% YoY), non‑GAAP gross margin 43% (up 55 bps YoY), non‑GAAP operating income $19.9M (6.9% margin), non‑GAAP net income $11.0M ($0.14 diluted) and a non‑GAAP tax rate of 25.5%, with operating cash flow $12.7M, free cash flow −$3.3M, cash $88.3M, net working capital $253.9M, inventory $209M (110 days), receivables $215.5M (DSO 68 days) and payables $170.6M (DPO 66 days); management also reiterated expectations that optical revenue and BEAD‑related orders will build through the year.Adtran Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.08B | 922.72M | 1.15B | 1.03B | 563.00M |
| Gross Profit | 414.95M | 324.16M | 331.13M | 327.25M | 218.38M |
| EBITDA | 80.64M | -330.14M | -104.36M | 27.00K | 9.81M |
| Net Income | -45.66M | -459.89M | -267.69M | -2.04M | -8.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.20B | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.94B | 569.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 130.87M | 76.02M | 87.17M | 108.98M | 56.95M |
| Total Debt | 245.04M | 215.50M | 234.14M | 143.34M | 3.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 685.34M | 621.52M | 628.86M | 639.88M | 211.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 145.83M | 126.95M | 605.26M | 973.95M | 357.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 98.03M | 38.40M | -79.35M | -61.30M | -2.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 129.77M | 103.57M | -43.02M | -44.23M | 3.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -115.74M | -64.25M | -36.08M | 55.83M | 10.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -105.00K | -50.01M | 60.09M | 52.94M | -12.96M |
Adtran Technical Analysis
Positive
16.96
Price Trends
11.62
Positive
10.20
Positive
9.68
Positive
Market Momentum
1.40
Negative
85.69
Negative
97.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.72, above the 50-day MA of 11.62, and above the 200-day MA of 9.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.69 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADTN.
Adtran Risk Analysis
Adtran disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adtran reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adtran Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.17B | 13.96 | 28.06% | 4.38% | 6.77% | 8.12% | |
70 Outperform | $2.21B | 40.13 | 6.72% | ― | 6.40% | 16.96% | |
67 Neutral | $1.50B | 23.95 | 5.50% | ― | 47.87% | -21.87% | |
64 Neutral | $1.34B | -5.06 | -10.08% | ― | -24.60% | -216.93% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $1.27B | 53.02 | -19.93% | ― | 18.84% | 77.12% | |
55 Neutral | $686.03M | -11.53 | -7.97% | ― | 3.66% | -200.01% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADTN
Adtran
15.71
8.00
103.76%
DGII
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58.85
26.83
83.79%
GILT
Gilat
19.86
13.34
204.60%
HLIT
Harmonic
12.18
3.10
34.14%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
58.89
25.42
75.96%
NTGR
Netgear
25.56
-3.35
-11.59%
Adtran Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Reports Strong Q1 2026 Growth and Outlook
Positive
May 5, 2026
Adtran reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, 2026, posting revenue of $286.1 million, a 15.5% year-over-year increase, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 39.5% and 43.0% and operating margins of 2.2% and 6.9%, respectively. ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Adtran Shifts Executive Pay Toward Earnings-Based Performance Metrics
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Adtran amended the employment agreement of President, CEO and Chairman Thomas R. Stanton, eliminating annual performance share unit awards tied solely to relative total shareholder return and revising his long-term PSU structure ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Guides Solid 2026
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Adtran reported unaudited fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, 2026, with revenue rising 20.1% year-on-year to $291.6 million, GAAP gross margin improving to 39.0% and non-GAAP gross margin to 42.5%, and GAAP operating margin turning positive a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.