Adtran (ADTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $702.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: 3.52%
• EPS Growth: 81.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,091
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 80,052,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,841,968
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,256,074
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 94.54
• 1Y Price Target: $13.00
• Price Target Upside: 48.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(2.62% Upside)

Adtran's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, particularly negative profitability metrics. However, strong revenue growth and positive cash flow generation provide some optimism. Technical analysis and valuation metrics are mixed, with a negative P/E ratio and neutral technical indicators. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting revenue growth and customer acquisitions, contributes positively to the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Adtran's products, suggesting a solid market position and potential for continued expansion.

Cash Flow Generation

Positive cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, supporting strategic investments and operational resilience.

Market Position

Growth in Access and Aggregation underscores Adtran's strong market position and ability to capitalize on fiber deployment trends.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues could hinder long-term financial health and limit reinvestment capabilities.

Gross Margin Pressure

Gross margin pressure may impact overall profitability, affecting the company's ability to sustain competitive pricing.

Currency Fluctuations

Currency fluctuations can lead to unpredictable cost structures, affecting profitability and financial planning.

Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Adtran generates revenue through the sale of its hardware products, including routers, switches, and optical networking equipment, as well as through recurring service contracts and software licensing. The company's primary revenue streams include direct sales to telecommunications service providers, which represent a significant portion of its income, as well as sales to enterprise customers seeking to improve their network infrastructure. Additionally, Adtran benefits from partnerships with major telecom operators and technology providers, which help expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services drives growth in Adtran's revenue, particularly in the deployment of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) solutions and other advanced networking technologies.

Adtran Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adtran faces significant profitability challenges with negative net income and EBIT margins, despite some revenue growth. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but the negative return on equity is concerning. Cash flow generation is a relative strength, indicating resilience in liquidity.

Income Statement

Adtran's income statement reveals a challenging financial position with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins over the TTM period. Despite a slight revenue growth of 4.14% TTM, the company has struggled to convert this into profitability, as indicated by the negative net income and EBIT. The gross profit margin is moderate at 37.69%, showing some efficiency in managing production costs. However, the persistent negative net profit margin of -11.08% highlights ongoing profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed financial health with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 TTM, indicating low leverage compared to previous years. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -66.34%, reflecting the company's inability to generate positive returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall leverage appears to be under control, suggesting some stability in capital structure despite profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Adtran's cash flow statement indicates a positive operating cash flow of $108.33 million TTM, which is a positive sign of liquidity. The free cash flow growth rate is 8.64%, showing improvement in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.35, suggesting that cash flow generation is stronger than net income figures imply. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.53 indicates that while cash flow is positive, it is not sufficient to cover the negative net income entirely.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	983.37M	922.72M	1.15B	1.03B	563.00M	506.51M
Gross Profit	370.58M	324.16M	331.13M	327.25M	218.38M	217.55M
EBITDA	13.00M	-330.14M	-104.36M	27.00K	9.81M	10.39M
Net Income	-108.95M	-459.89M	-267.69M	-2.04M	-8.63M	2.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.22B	1.18B	1.68B	1.94B	569.02M	525.68M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.27M	76.02M	87.17M	108.98M	56.95M	63.29M
Total Debt	27.78M	222.66M	226.42M	150.94M	3.27M	5.38M
Total Liabilities	644.59M	622.01M	628.86M	639.88M	211.91M	152.74M
Stockholders Equity	169.61M	134.41M	593.82M	973.95M	357.10M	372.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.04M	70.62M	-88.72M	-61.30M	-2.66M	-22.93M
Operating Cash Flow	108.33M	103.07M	-45.60M	-44.23M	3.01M	-16.52M
Investing Cash Flow	-85.12M	-62.21M	-34.86M	55.83M	10.27M	41.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-45.31M	-50.01M	58.87M	52.94M	-12.96M	-42.98M

Adtran Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.53, below the 50-day MA of 9.28, and below the 200-day MA of 9.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADTN.

Adtran Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DGII	78 Outperform	1.35B	31.83	6.87%	―	-2.37%	147.46%
HLIT	78 Outperform	1.14B	17.15	15.38%	―	24.14%	16.17%
NTGR	70 Outperform	830.51M	13.29	12.18%	―	0.76%	0.00%
GILT	69 Neutral	637.17M	28.40	8.16%	―	19.67%	12.32%
COMM	58 Neutral	3.61B	-24.79	-69.12%	―	-11.03%	91.98%
ADTN	56 Neutral	$702.06M	―	-53.68%	―	3.52%	81.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Adtran Corporate Events

Adtran Announces $175 Million Convertible Notes Offering

On September 16, 2025, Adtran Holdings, Inc. announced the Sixth Amendment to its Wells Fargo Credit Agreement, allowing the issuance of $230 million in new unsecured convertible debt. This move aims to repay outstanding loans and finance the purchase of additional shares in its German subsidiary, Adtran Networks SE. Additionally, on September 17, 2025, ADTRAN announced the pricing of a $175 million convertible senior notes offering, with plans to use proceeds to repay borrowings and fund capped call transactions to mitigate stock dilution. This strategic financial maneuvering is expected to enhance ADTRAN’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.