Adtran Inc (ADTN)
NASDAQ:ADTN
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Adtran
(NASDAQ:ADTN)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▼(-0.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (weak and volatile profitability but improving, positive cash flow) and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting these positives, valuation is less supportive due to a negative P/E, and the earnings outlook—while improved—still carries variability from supply-chain and international demand timing.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
ADTRAN has delivered materially stronger operating and free cash flow recently and cut inventory significantly. Durable cash generation improves financial flexibility to fund R&D, support deployments, buy back stock or pay down debt, and cushions the business through telecom capex timing variability.
Negative Factors
Volatile historical profitability
ADTRAN's income statement has been weak and inconsistent, with recurring GAAP losses and volatile revenue. That history raises doubts about durability of the current turnaround and constrains retained earnings available to fund growth without relying on external financing or asset disposals.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
ADTRAN has delivered materially stronger operating and free cash flow recently and cut inventory significantly. Durable cash generation improves financial flexibility to fund R&D, support deployments, buy back stock or pay down debt, and cushions the business through telecom capex timing variability.
Read all positive factors
Adtran (ADTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth14.33%
EPS Growth83.32%
CountryUS
Employees3,091
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding80,659,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,617,435
30 Day Avg. Volume1,426,311
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)4.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.24Price Target Upside13.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.17B
Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and international...
How the Company Makes Money
ADTRAN makes money primarily by selling networking hardware, software, and related services used to build and operate broadband and telecom networks. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Product revenue from access and aggregation infrastruc...
Adtran Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which might need strategic adjustments or investment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdtran Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong execution and clear financial improvement across revenue growth, margin expansion, cash flow generation, and product momentum—particularly in Optical Networking, software adoption and U.S. demand. Key operational improvements included substantial inventory reduction, improved gross margins and return to positive operating profitability. Offsetting items include near-term variability from supply-chain pressures (memory and optics), some sequential softness in non-U.S. revenue driven by European ordering patterns, a wide quarterly margin guidance range, and uncertainty/timing around noncore asset monetization and the multi-year Huawei replacement process. On balance, the positives around scalable revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong cash generation outweigh the near-term uncertainties.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $291.6 million, up 20% year-over-year and over 4% sequentially; marked the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential growth and fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement.
Negative Updates
Non-U.S. Sequential Softness
Non-U.S. revenue grew 12% year-over-year but declined 3% sequentially in Q4, attributed to recent ordering patterns among some larger European customers.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $291.6 million, up 20% year-over-year and over 4% sequentially; marked the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential growth and fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADTRAN's Q1 FY2026 guidance calls for revenue of $275–$295 million and a non‑GAAP operating margin of 4%–8%—a 4‑point range management says reflects normal seasonality and current supply‑chain dynamics (memory/optics variability); they also noted they could not provide a reconciliation for the non‑GAAP operating‑margin outlook because certain adjustments cannot be reasonably quantified. Management reiterated a long‑term non‑GAAP gross‑margin target of ~42%–43% (Q4 non‑GAAP gross margin was 42.5%, up 44 bps sequentially and 122 bps year‑over‑year), said operating expenses are expected in the low‑$100M range as they pursue steady margin expansion, and highlighted Q4 operating profit of $18.8M (6.4% of revenue, +103 bps seq, +406 bps YoY) and Q4 non‑GAAP EPS of $0.16 as context for the outlook.Adtran Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.08B | 922.72M | 1.15B | 1.03B | 563.00M |
| Gross Profit | 414.95M | 324.16M | 331.13M | 327.25M | 218.38M |
| EBITDA | 80.64M | -330.14M | -104.36M | 27.00K | 9.81M |
| Net Income | -45.66M | -459.89M | -267.69M | -2.04M | -8.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.20B | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.94B | 569.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 130.87M | 76.02M | 87.17M | 108.98M | 56.95M |
| Total Debt | 245.04M | 215.50M | 234.14M | 143.34M | 3.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 685.34M | 621.52M | 628.86M | 639.88M | 211.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 145.83M | 126.95M | 605.26M | 973.95M | 357.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 98.03M | 38.40M | -79.35M | -61.30M | -2.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 129.77M | 103.57M | -43.02M | -44.23M | 3.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -115.74M | -64.25M | -36.08M | 55.83M | 10.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -105.00K | -50.01M | 60.09M | 52.94M | -12.96M |
Adtran Technical Analysis
Positive
12.53
Price Trends
10.04
Positive
9.25
Positive
9.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.56
Negative
71.79
Negative
84.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.56, above the 50-day MA of 10.04, and above the 200-day MA of 9.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADTN.
Adtran Risk Analysis
Adtran disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adtran reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adtran Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.01B | 14.75 | 28.06% | 4.38% | 5.20% | 9.14% | |
76 Outperform | $1.87B | 34.52 | 6.76% | ― | 1.46% | 78.77% | |
67 Neutral | $1.25B | 37.11 | 5.50% | ― | 29.67% | 41.90% | |
62 Neutral | $1.01B | -15.18 | -30.65% | ― | 14.33% | 83.32% | |
62 Neutral | $1.03B | -25.95 | -10.08% | ― | 1.93% | -43.22% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
50 Neutral | $620.18M | -11.36 | -6.37% | ― | 2.95% | -228.28% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADTN
Adtran
12.53
3.29
35.61%
DGII
Digi International
49.60
20.05
67.85%
GILT
Gilat
16.81
10.18
153.54%
HLIT
Harmonic
9.32
-0.62
-6.24%
ITRN
Ituran Location And Control
51.74
16.34
46.16%
NTGR
Netgear
24.46
-0.16
-0.65%
Adtran Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adtran Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Guides Solid 2026
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Adtran reported unaudited fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, 2026, with revenue rising 20.1% year-on-year to $291.6 million, GAAP gross margin improving to 39.0% and non-GAAP gross margin to 42.5%, and GAAP operating margin turning positive a...
Financial Disclosures
Adtran Announces Strong Preliminary Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 21, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reported preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, disclosing the figures via an ad hoc announcement in Germany under EU market abuse regulations. The com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.