Adtran (ADTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $803.37M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.76
• Revenue Growth: 14.33%
• EPS Growth: 83.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,091
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 80,659,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,553,625
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,276,576
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.21
• 1Y Price Target: $14.26
• Price Target Upside: 43.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.17B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(5.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

ADTN scores as moderately attractive, led by improving cash generation and a strong earnings-call backdrop showing revenue growth and margin expansion. Technicals also support the case with a rising trend and positive momentum. Offsetting these positives are weak and volatile profitability (negative P/E) and historical revenue/earnings instability, which keep the overall score in the middle range.

Positive Factors

Improved cash generation

Material, sustained improvement in operating and free cash flow over the latest annual period strengthens liquidity and funds operations, capex, and buybacks without relying on equity markets. This durability supports reinvestment and reduces default risk versus prior cash‑burn years.

Margin expansion and return to operating profit

Gross margin improvement and a return to positive operating profit indicate structural cost and mix improvements. Management cites a long‑term gross‑margin target (~42%–43%), suggesting operating leverage and disciplined Opex can sustain higher profitability across cycles.

Product momentum — Optical and enterprise software

Strong growth in higher‑value optical systems and expanding enterprise/cloud sales diversify revenue mix. Rising traction in software and cloud-managed offerings (Mosaic, Intellifi trials) supports recurring revenue potential and cross‑sell, improving long‑term revenue durability.

Negative Factors

Historically weak, volatile profitability

Recurring GAAP losses and inconsistent top‑line history limit the firm's ability to compound returns and build retained earnings. Even with recent non‑GAAP gains, long‑term investor confidence requires sustained, multi‑period net profitability, which remains unproven.

Elevated leverage versus prior years

Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises interest obligations, and elevates refinancing and covenant risk during downturns. Given prior losses and negative ROE periods, a more leveraged capital structure constrains strategic optionality and margin for error.

Supply‑chain and regional timing risks

Persistent component cost and availability swings and lumpy European telco ordering create durable quarter‑to‑quarter revenue and margin volatility. Coupled with multi‑year BEAD and Huawei replacement timelines, revenue recognition timing may remain uneven for many quarters.

Adtran Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Adtran generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its hardware and software products to telecommunications service providers and enterprises. Its key revenue sources include the sale of broadband access equipment, which encompasses fiber access and DSL technologies, as well as optical networking systems that facilitate high-speed data transmission. Additionally, Adtran earns revenue through subscription-based services and software licensing, which provide ongoing support and updates to its customers. The company often enters into strategic partnerships with telecom operators and technology providers, enabling it to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. Overall, Adtran's earnings are significantly influenced by the demand for high-speed internet services, the growth of broadband infrastructure, and the increasing adoption of cloud-based networking solutions.

Adtran Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Income statement quality is weak with recurring losses and revenue volatility, and leverage rose versus earlier years, but recent operating/free cash flow has improved materially and supports liquidity and near-term flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability is weak and volatile: the company has posted net losses in most years (notably large in 2023–2024), with consistently negative operating profit and EBITDA margins. Revenue growth has also been inconsistent, including a sharp contraction in 2024 and an extreme drop in the latest annual data, which raises questions around top-line stability. A modest positive is that gross margin has generally held in a ~29%–43% range, but it has not translated into sustainable bottom-line performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased meaningfully versus earlier years. Debt rose from very low levels in 2020–2021 to a more levered profile, with debt exceeding equity in 2024 (debt-to-equity ~1.70), before improving in the latest annual snapshot as equity increased relative to debt. However, returns on equity have been negative in most periods, reflecting losses and limiting the balance sheet’s ability to compound value. Overall asset base is sizeable, but the combination of losses and higher debt versus the past keeps the balance sheet in the middle of the pack.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in the last two annual periods, with positive operating cash flow and solid free cash flow in 2024 and the latest annual data (including very strong free cash flow growth in the latest period). This is a key strength versus the income statement losses. The main weakness is inconsistency: operating and free cash flow were negative in 2022–2023, showing the business can swing between cash burn and cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	922.72M	1.15B	1.03B	563.00M
Gross Profit	414.95M	324.16M	331.13M	327.25M	218.38M
EBITDA	80.64M	-330.14M	-104.36M	27.00K	9.81M
Net Income	-45.66M	-459.89M	-267.69M	-2.04M	-8.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.20B	1.17B	1.68B	1.94B	569.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	130.87M	76.02M	87.17M	108.98M	56.95M
Total Debt	245.04M	215.50M	234.14M	143.34M	3.27M
Total Liabilities	685.34M	621.52M	628.86M	639.88M	211.91M
Stockholders Equity	145.83M	126.95M	605.26M	973.95M	357.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	98.03M	38.40M	-79.35M	-61.30M	-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow	129.77M	103.57M	-43.02M	-44.23M	3.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-115.74M	-64.25M	-36.08M	55.83M	10.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-105.00K	-50.01M	60.09M	52.94M	-12.96M

Adtran Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADTN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.02, above the 50-day MA of 9.44, and above the 200-day MA of 8.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADTN.

Adtran Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITRN	79 Outperform	$944.15M	16.89	28.62%	4.38%	5.20%	9.14%
DGII	76 Outperform	$1.90B	45.16	6.84%	―	1.46%	78.77%
GILT	67 Neutral	$1.27B	52.23	5.15%	―	29.67%	41.90%
ADTN	64 Neutral	$803.37M	-19.10	-30.48%	―	14.33%	83.32%
HLIT	62 Neutral	$1.21B	-28.11	2.76%	―	1.93%	-43.22%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NTGR	50 Neutral	$583.35M	-33.28	-3.45%	―	2.95%	-228.28%

Adtran Corporate Events

Adtran Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Guides Solid 2026

Adtran reported unaudited fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, 2026, with revenue rising 20.1% year-on-year to $291.6 million, GAAP gross margin improving to 39.0% and non-GAAP gross margin to 42.5%, and GAAP operating margin turning positive at 1.5% alongside non-GAAP operating margin of 6.4%. The company generated $42.2 million in operating cash flow, ended the quarter with $95.7 million in cash and cash equivalents, and posted a small GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.02 versus non-GAAP diluted earnings of $0.16, signalling improved profitability metrics despite restructuring and other non-GAAP adjustments.

Management said the strong quarter, marked by revenue above its outlook and growth across all three revenue categories, reflected solid execution and continued fiber investment in core markets, while also pointing to momentum with cloud and enterprise customers, strong U.S. broadband activity and rising high-risk vendor replacement projects in Europe. For the first quarter of 2026, Adtran guided revenue to $275 million–$295 million and projected a non-GAAP operating margin of 4.0%–8.0%, indicating expectations of sustained, albeit moderating, top-line performance and continued focus on expanding operating margin and cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Announces Strong Preliminary Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results

On January 21, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. reported preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, disclosing the figures via an ad hoc announcement in Germany under EU market abuse regulations. The company said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is expected to reach $290 million to $293 million, exceeding its prior guidance of $275 million to $285 million, with full-year GAAP revenue projected at $1,082.2 million to $1,085.2 million. Preliminary GAAP operating margin for the quarter is anticipated at 1.4% to 1.7%, with non-GAAP operating margin at 6.0% to 6.9%, in line with earlier guidance, while full-year GAAP operating margin is expected to be slightly negative at between -1.5% and -1.4%, and full-year non-GAAP operating margin between 4.6% and 4.9%. Management indicated that non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter are expected to surpass analyst consensus, signaling stronger-than-expected demand and execution despite typical year-end seasonality, though the figures remain preliminary and subject to adjustment ahead of the final audited results to be released in late February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.

Adtran Extends CTO Christoph Glingener’s Employment Agreement

On December 9, 2025, Adtran Networks SE extended the employment agreement of its CTO, Christoph Glingener, through December 31, 2026, with an increased annual base salary of €400,000 starting October 1, 2025. The amendment also outlines incentive bonuses tied to the company’s revenue and earnings, as well as stock unit grants based on shareholder return, with a total annual remuneration cap of €2,800,000.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADTN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adtran stock, see the ADTN Stock Forecast page.