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Netgear (NTGR)
NASDAQ:NTGR
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Netgear
(NASDAQ:NTGR)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(0.94% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
NTGR scores in the middle primarily due to mixed financial performance: a strong, low-leverage balance sheet is offset by weakened profitability and a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow decline. Technicals add pressure with a clear downtrend despite oversold readings. The earnings call improves the outlook somewhat (enterprise strength and margin progress), but near-term guidance and memory/consumer headwinds temper the score.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Equity
Extremely low leverage and a healthy equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest burdens, supports ongoing R&D, product launches and buybacks, and allows the company to fund strategic initiatives or absorb demand shocks over the next several quarters.
Enterprise Segment Margin Expansion
Sustained enterprise growth and high-margin ProAV managed switches shift the revenue mix toward more profitable, less cyclical sales. Higher enterprise margins improve overall profitability sustainability, enable reinvestment in software and services, and reduce reliance on volatile consumer retail channels.
Growing Recurring Revenue
Expanding ARR and subscriber base strengthen predictable revenue streams and customer stickiness. This recurring component supports longer-term revenue visibility, higher lifetime value, and the company’s strategic shift to subscription-led services, improving durability of cash flow over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow Trend
A large decline in free cash flow undermines internal funding for capex, software investment and M&A. Persistent negative FCF forces reliance on cash reserves or capital markets, constraining strategic flexibility and increasing execution risk for multi-quarter initiatives and product rollouts.
Profitability Weakness
Negative net margins and below-zero operating profits signal structural profitability pressures. Even with solid gross margins, elevated operating costs or mix shifts could prevent conversion to sustainable profits, limiting reinvestment capacity and potentially forcing margin-restoration actions over several quarters.
Cost & Supply Headwinds
Inflationary component costs and supply constraints can compress product margins and delay fulfillment of higher-margin enterprise orders. These input-cost and supply issues may persist into early next year, reducing the durability of recent margin gains and slowing ability to capture demand.
Netgear (NTGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$570.98M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)561.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth2.95%
EPS Growth-228.28%
CountryUS
Employees636
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding28,113,152
10 Day Avg. Volume493,014
30 Day Avg. Volume561,751
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)1.42
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio-37.48
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.00Price Target Upside77.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$713.45M
Netgear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNETGEAR, Inc. designs, develops, and markets networking and Internet connected products for consumers, businesses, and service providers. The company operates in two segments, Connected Home, and Small and Medium Business. It offers smart home/connected home/broadband access products, such as Wi-Fi routers and home Wi-Fi systems, broadband modems, Wi-Fi gateways, Wi-Fi hotspots, Wi-Fi range extenders, Powerline adapters and bridges, Wi-Fi network adapters, and digital canvasses; and value-added service offerings, including technical support, parental controls, and cybersecurity protection. The company also provides Ethernet switches, Wi-Fi mesh systems and access points, local and remote unified storage products, and Internet security appliances for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as education, hospitality and health markets. It markets and sells its products through traditional retailers, online retailers, wholesale distributors, direct market resellers, value-added resellers, and broadband service providers, as well as through its direct online store at www.netgear.com. in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyNetgear generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling hardware products, including routers, switches, and network storage devices. The company also earns income from subscription services related to its smart home products and security solutions, such as cloud storage and monitoring services. Additionally, Netgear partners with various telecommunications companies and internet service providers to offer bundled solutions that include its networking products. These partnerships can create significant revenue opportunities by integrating Netgear's technology into broader service offerings. The company also benefits from a growing demand for high-speed internet connectivity and the increasing trend of remote work and smart home technology adoption, which further drives sales of its products.
Netgear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a meaningful operational turnaround: revenue growth, record gross margins, returning to full-year non-GAAP profitability, strong enterprise momentum, ARR/subscriber growth, and improving working capital. These material achievements were balanced by clear near-term headwinds—most notably escalating DDR4 memory shortages and consumer demand softness—that could pressure margins and results in H1/H2 2026. Management communicated concrete mitigation plans (procurement changes, pricing actions, cost-sharing, OpEx discipline), progress on supply constraints for enterprise managed switches, and strategic investments (software insourcing, OS license) that support longer-term margin expansion and higher-quality revenue. Overall, the positive fundamental improvements and profitability achieved in 2025 outweigh the noted near-term risks, but execution of mitigation actions will be important to sustain momentum into 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Return to Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 net revenue of $699.6M, up 3.8% year over year; full-year revenue grew by more than $25M compared to 2024.
Record Gross Margins
Non-GAAP gross margin reached an all-time high of 41.2% (2025), up ~840 basis points year over year versus 32.8% in the prior year; Q4 non-GAAP gross margin also 41.2%.
Return to Annual Profitability
Full-year non-GAAP net income of $13.3M ($0.44 per share) and full-year non-GAAP operating profit of $5.9M (0.8% operating margin) — first full-year non-GAAP operating profit since 2021.
Strong Q4 Operating and EPS Improvement
Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.26; non-GAAP operating income of $5.9M and non-GAAP operating margin of 3.3% (Q4 improvement of 560 bps YoY); Q4 non-GAAP EPS up 117% sequentially.
Enterprise Momentum and Margin Expansion
Enterprise revenue for full-year grew 18.8% YoY; Q4 enterprise revenue $89.4M, up 10.6% YoY. Enterprise gross margin reached 51.4%, up 750 basis points YoY.
Consumer Product Wins and Wi‑Fi 7 Adoption
Core consumer business increased 1.7% for the year (offsetting declines in service-provider related sales); improved product mix and Wi‑Fi 7 offerings helped consumer gross margin expand to 31.4% (+750 bps YoY).
Recurring Revenue Growth (ARR and Subscribers)
ARR grew 18% YoY in Q4 to $40.4M; recurring subscribers reached 558,000 at quarter end, supporting higher-margin recurring revenue expansion.
License Acquisition to Improve Margins and Product Roadmap
Acquired a perpetual license for the OS powering AV and managed switches; contributed roughly +100 bps to Q4 gross margin and anticipated to provide ~150 bps annual gross margin benefit and faster product innovation.
Improved Working Capital and Cash Generation
DSOs exited the year at 73 days (ten-year low); Q4 cash from operations $19.5M and trailing twelve months cash from operations $106M; ending cash and short-term investments $323M.
Capital Returns
Repurchased $15M of shares in Q4 and ~ $50M total repurchases in 2025 (≈539,000 shares in Q4); company has ~1.5M shares remaining under current authorization and views current prices as attractive.
Negative Updates
Memory Shortage and Pricing Pressure
Escalating DDR4 memory shortages driven by AI data center demand create an uncertain cost headwind—company expects limited gross margin impact in H1 2026 but acknowledged potential outsized impact in H2 if mitigations fail; CFO flagged ~100 bps gross margin headwind in Q1 related to rising memory costs.
Consumer Revenue Pressure and Service Provider Decline
Full-year consumer revenue declined 7.3% YoY in 2025; sales to service providers and associated products declined ~23.3% YoY. Q4 consumer revenue was $93.1M, down 8.4% YoY. Service-provider related revenue expected to be ~$20M in Q1 (≈35% decline YoY).
Near-Term Profitability Pressure in Q1 2026
Q1 2026 guidance implies a challenging quarter: projected net revenue $145M–$160M; non-GAAP operating margin expected negative 6% to negative 3% and GAAP operating margin negative 16.3% to negative 13.3%.
Uncertain Consumer Demand and Shorter Fiscal Quarter Impact
Softening consumer sell-through to start the year (POS declines ~20% vs a typical ~15% post-holiday drop) and Q1 being a shorter fiscal quarter were noted as headwinds to near-term results.
Potential Second-Half Risk to 2026 Targets
Management cautioned they may be challenged to meet 2026 goals of growing revenue, margin, and profitability if memory cost increases persist into H2 despite mitigation efforts (procurement adjustments, cost-sharing, reduced promotions, OpEx constraints).
Restructuring and Workforce Changes
Announced a small restructuring impacting approximately 5% of employees (including several senior leaders) to streamline execution and reallocate resources — short-term disruption and severance/transition impacts possible.
Service Provider / Cable Business in Harvest Mode
Management is explicitly calling out declining service-provider/cable-related revenue and isolating it for investor analysis; this legacy business is expected to remain in decline and weigh on total revenue mix near term.
Company Guidance
NETGEAR guided Q1 2026 net revenue of $145–$160 million, with GAAP operating margin of -16.3% to -13.3% and non‑GAAP operating margin of -6% to -3%, and warned of roughly a 100‑basis‑point gross‑margin headwind in Q1 from rising DDR4 memory costs; it expects service‑provider/related revenue of about $20 million in Q1 (≈35% YoY decline), GAAP tax of $1–$2 million and non‑GAAP tax of $0.3–$1.3 million for 2026, and said enterprise demand should remain strong with supply improving and price increases beginning to take effect, while overall it anticipates limited margin impact in H1 but an uncertain, potentially outsized consumer impact in H2 and roughly a +4.5–5% sequential rebound into Q2.Netgear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are mixed. The balance sheet is a clear strength with low leverage and flexibility (Balance Sheet Score 74), but profitability has weakened with multi-year revenue decline and a return to GAAP losses in 2025 (Income Statement Score 41). Cash flow also deteriorated sharply in 2025 with negative free cash flow after strong 2023–2024 results (Cash Flow Score 45).Income Statement
Profitability has weakened meaningfully. Revenue has been declining for several years, falling from about $1.26B (2020) to ~$693M (2025), and 2025 returned to a net loss (about -4.7% net margin) after a brief profit in 2024. A positive offset is that gross margin improved in 2025 (~36%) versus 2024 (~29%), but operating performance remains pressured with negative operating and EBITDA margins in 2025.41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks relatively conservative with low leverage (debt-to-equity in the ~0.04–0.08 range across the period), providing flexibility despite earnings volatility. However, equity has trended down from 2021–2025 and returns on equity have been inconsistent, turning negative in 2022, 2023, and 2025—signaling that profitability issues are eroding shareholder value even with modest debt.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is volatile. After strong operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024 (including ~156M of free cash flow in 2024), 2025 sharply deteriorated with near-breakeven operating cash flow (~$1.6M) and negative free cash flow (~-$18.9M). While free cash flow improved versus the prior year on a growth basis, the absolute level in 2025 and the negative earnings backdrop point to elevated execution risk.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 693.35M | 673.76M | 740.84M | 932.47M | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 250.96M | 195.93M | 249.25M | 250.55M | 365.84M |
| EBITDA | -17.53M | -65.80M | -25.04M | -23.82M | 80.50M |
| Net Income | -32.84M | 12.36M | -104.77M | -68.99M | 49.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 836.27M | 850.23M | 847.14M | 1.02B | 1.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 323.04M | 408.69M | 283.65M | 227.43M | 271.52M |
| Total Debt | 41.02M | 30.63M | 41.57M | 45.10M | 27.79M |
| Total Liabilities | 338.45M | 309.16M | 311.65M | 398.93M | 381.72M |
| Stockholders Equity | 497.82M | 541.07M | 535.50M | 620.86M | 696.82M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.91M | 155.80M | 51.05M | -19.49M | -14.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.61M | 164.80M | 56.85M | -13.73M | -4.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.64M | -26.16M | -27.43M | -79.52M | -9.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.51M | -28.91M | 797.00K | -24.02M | -68.12M |
Netgear Technical Analysis
Negative
20.31
Price Trends
22.44
Negative
26.22
Negative
27.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.55
Negative
39.54
Neutral
30.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.78, below the 50-day MA of 22.44, and below the 200-day MA of 27.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTGR.
Netgear Risk Analysis
Netgear disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Netgear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Netgear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.82B | 43.26 | 6.84% | ― | 1.46% | 78.77% | |
63 Neutral | $313.66M | 21.50 | 5.60% | ― | 10.89% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.17B | -26.82 | 2.76% | ― | 1.93% | -43.22% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $847.63M | -9.75 | -48.44% | ― | 14.33% | 83.32% | |
54 Neutral | $1.84B | 205.69 | 12.43% | ― | 14.31% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $570.98M | -32.57 | -3.45% | ― | 2.95% | -228.28% |
* Technology Sector Average
NTGR
Netgear
20.31
-5.96
-22.69%
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0.29
2.86%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.