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China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (HK:3968)
:3968
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China Merchants Bank Co (3968) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:3968

China Merchants Bank Co

(3968)

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Outperform 82 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
HK$60.00
▲(16.96% Upside)
China Merchants Bank scores well due to its robust financial performance and attractive valuation. Technical indicators show positive momentum, though caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. The earnings call highlighted both strengths in asset growth and challenges in income, but the bank's strategic focus remains promising.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors

China Merchants Bank Co (3968) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

China Merchants Bank Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChina Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. The company offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts. Its loan products include personal commercial real estate, consumption, housing, and car loans; loans to finance for studying abroad; micro-business loans; mortgage loans for equipment; joint guarantee, special guarantee, and housing mortgage loan; bank acceptance, discount, liquid capital, and fixed asset loans; and loans for vessels. The company also offers credit cards; insurance products; open-ended funds; discount and guarantees for commercial bills, redemption of commercial bills, and guaranteed discount for commercial acceptance bills; and financial consultation, debt financing underwriting, merger and acquisition financing, and equity financing and enterprise listing services. In addition, it provides forfeiting and risk participation, escrow, cross-border RMB clearing, and interbank services; and risk and financial management, cross-border RMB and oversea financing, international factoring and settlement, and trade finance services. Further, the company offers financial leasing and guarantee, investment and wealth management, forex option and gold trading, forex express trading, international, offshore and private banking, custody, pension, and electronic banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 143 branches; 1,770 sub-branches; one branch-level operation center; 2,812 self-service centers; 6,592 self-service machines; one representative office; 14,746 visual counters in Mainland China. The company also operates in Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore, Luxembourg, Sydney, and Taipei. China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina Merchants Bank generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, fees from various banking services, and investment income. The main revenue streams include interest earned from personal and corporate loans, which constitutes a significant portion of their earnings. Additionally, the bank earns fees from services such as account management, transaction processing, and wealth management advisory services. The bank also engages in treasury operations, generating income through investments in bonds and other financial instruments. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance their service offerings and operational efficiency, contributing positively to their overall revenue. Furthermore, the growing demand for digital banking solutions has allowed CMBC to tap into the increasing number of retail banking customers, thereby expanding its customer base and revenue potential.

China Merchants Bank Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Mar 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance for China Merchants Bank. While there were notable achievements in asset growth, wealth management, and asset quality, challenges such as declining net operating income, lower capital ratios, and weak retail loan demand were apparent. Despite these issues, the bank's strategic focus on stable growth and asset management provides a positive outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Core Profit Indicators
ROAA and ROAE maintained at high levels of 1.22% and 13.96% respectively, with slight increases compared to the first half of the year.
Retail AUM Growth
Retail AUM reached RMB 16.6 trillion, a growth rate of 11% compared to the end of last year, with retail client numbers increasing by 4.76%.
Wealth Management Business Growth
Wealth management fee and commission income rose by 18% year-on-year, the first positive growth in three years.
Stable Asset Quality
NPL ratio decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.94%, with an allowance coverage ratio of 405.93%.
Corporate Loan Growth
Corporate loans increased by 10.01% compared to last year-end, with significant contributions from manufacturing and power sectors.
Negative Updates
Net Operating Income Decline
Net operating income decreased by 0.52% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed compared to the first half.
Decreasing Capital Ratios
CET1 CAR, Tier 1 CAR, and total capital ratio decreased by 0.93, 1.23, and 1.46 percentage points respectively compared to last year-end.
Weak Retail Loan Demand
Retail loans growth was only 1.43%, with pressure on loan yields and insufficient effective credit demand.
Interest Margin Pressure
Net interest margin decreased by 12 bps year-on-year, though the rate of decrease has narrowed.
Company Guidance
In the call, China Merchants Bank provided detailed guidance on various financial metrics for the first three quarters of 2025. The bank reported a net operating income of RMB 251.28 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.52% to RMB 113.7 billion. Key profitability ratios such as ROAA and ROAE were maintained at 1.22% and 13.96%, respectively. The bank's cost-to-income ratio was 29.86%, and it reported a CET1 capital adequacy ratio of 13.93%. Total assets grew to RMB 12.64 trillion, with retail loans comprising 51.8% of the total loan book. Despite facing challenges like a weak retail loan demand, the bank's NII grew by 1.74% to RMB 160.04 billion, though the NIM decreased by 12 basis points year-on-year. Wealth management services showed robust growth, with retail assets under management increasing by 11% to RMB 16.6 trillion. Asset quality was stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%. The bank emphasized its focus on balancing quality, profitability, and scale while navigating an uncertain external environment.

China Merchants Bank Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
China Merchants Bank is in robust financial health, with solid profitability, a strong balance sheet free of debt, and efficient cash flow management. Continued revenue growth and sound financial strategies place it favorably within the regional banking sector. However, vigilance is needed to maintain cash flow growth for long-term stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
China Merchants Bank has shown solid growth with a steady revenue increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains high due to the bank's nature, with a net profit margin also showing strength. While there is a lack of EBIT and EBITDA data for the latest year, the net income has grown, indicating efficient cost management.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The bank exhibits a strong balance sheet with zero total debt in 2024, indicating excellent financial health. The equity has also grown, reflecting positive shareholder value. The equity ratio is favorable, showing a stable balance between assets and equity, which minimizes risk.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The operating cash flow has increased significantly, boosting the free cash flow. The bank demonstrates strong cash generation capabilities, which supports its operational stability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, although a decrease in free cash flow growth signals a need for caution in future cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue480.58B497.85B497.59B477.40B450.36B225.61B
Gross Profit330.21B334.86B336.65B342.26B327.22B225.61B
EBITDA177.92B194.24B192.06B179.72B161.70B0.00
Net Income148.58B148.39B146.60B138.01B119.92B97.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.66T12.15T11.03T10.14T9.25T8.36T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.24T2.10T1.07T960.91B846.62B876.67B
Total Debt433.19B471.07B436.55B455.39B631.11B609.26B
Total Liabilities11.36T10.92T9.94T9.18T8.38T7.63T
Stockholders Equity1.29T1.23T1.08T945.50B858.75B723.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow449.75B412.09B327.59B535.25B157.89B402.20B
Operating Cash Flow473.30B447.02B357.75B570.14B182.05B421.33B
Investing Cash Flow-412.23B-292.86B-255.11B-513.93B-19.70B-240.75B
Financing Cash Flow-101.67B2.15B-72.99B-297.03B89.36B-211.79B

China Merchants Bank Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price51.30
Price Trends
50DMA
48.88
Positive
100DMA
49.57
Positive
200DMA
47.51
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.81
Positive
RSI
58.43
Neutral
STOCH
47.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3968, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.91, above the 50-day MA of 48.88, and above the 200-day MA of 47.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:3968.

China Merchants Bank Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$1.20T7.974.27%-4.57%1.77%
78
Outperform
$408.11B10.1212.04%6.07%1.90%12.81%
77
Outperform
HK$728.76B6.539.30%5.16%-1.54%-3.95%
72
Outperform
$191.53B5.895.16%8.53%-7.28%-5.00%
69
Neutral
$471.39B5.419.71%5.37%-5.46%0.33%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$217.60B4.685.57%-8.41%-5.52%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:3968
China Merchants Bank Co
51.30
17.86
53.41%
HK:2388
BOC Hong Kong (Holdings)
37.74
15.08
66.56%
HK:6818
China Everbright Bank Co
3.56
1.04
41.49%
HK:1988
China Minsheng Banking
4.21
1.28
43.59%
HK:0998
China CITIC Bank
7.27
2.75
60.84%
HK:1658
Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. Class H
5.50
1.24
29.11%

China Merchants Bank Co Corporate Events

China Merchants Bank Earnings Call: Mixed Results and Strategic Focus
Nov 6, 2025

The recent earnings call for China Merchants Bank Co Class H painted a picture of mixed performance, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While the bank celebrated significant strides in asset growth, wealth management, and maintaining asset quality, it also faced hurdles such as declining net operating income, lower capital ratios, and weak retail loan demand. Despite these challenges, the bank’s strategic focus on stable growth and asset management provides a positive outlook for the future.

China Merchants Bank Announces New Director Appointment
Nov 4, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. announced the approval of Deng Renjie’s appointment as a non-executive director by the National Financial Regulatory Administration. This appointment, effective from October 30, 2025, is expected to influence the strategic direction of the bank as it continues to navigate the competitive financial services industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank Announces Board Composition and Roles
Nov 4, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. has announced the composition of its board of directors, detailing the roles and functions of each member. The board includes shareholder directors, executive directors, and independent non-executive directors, with various members serving on six special committees. This announcement underscores the bank’s commitment to structured governance and strategic oversight, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank Reports Steady Growth Amid Challenges
Oct 31, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., a leading financial institution in China, operates primarily in the banking sector, offering a wide range of financial services including corporate and retail banking, wealth management, and investment banking. The bank is known for its dynamic approach to balancing quality, profitability, and scale in its operations.

China Merchants Bank Releases Q3 2025 Financial Report
Oct 29, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. has released its unaudited third quarterly report for 2025, prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. The report has been reviewed and approved by the company’s Board of Directors and Supervisors, confirming its accuracy and completeness. This announcement underscores the bank’s commitment to transparency and accountability in its financial reporting, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring compliance with regulatory standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank Appoints New Non-Executive Director
Oct 28, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. has announced the approval of Jiang Chaoyang’s appointment as a non-executive director, effective from October 24, 2025. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen the company’s leadership, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank Announces Board Composition and Committee Roles
Oct 28, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. has announced the composition of its Board of Directors, detailing the roles and functions of each member. This announcement includes the establishment of six special committees, each with specific responsibilities, which are expected to enhance the bank’s governance and strategic oversight. The restructuring aims to bolster the bank’s operational efficiency and strengthen its market position, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by ensuring robust risk management and consumer rights protection.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank to Announce Q3 2025 Results and Host Investor Conference
Oct 23, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. announced it will disclose its 2025 third quarterly results on October 29, 2025, via the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited website. To provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of its financial performance, the company will hold an online audio press conference on October 31, 2025, where key executives, including the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will address investor queries. This initiative aims to enhance transparency and engage stakeholders effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank to Announce Q3 2025 Results
Oct 17, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. announced that its board of directors will meet on October 29, 2025, to review and approve the company’s third-quarter results for the period ending September 30, 2025. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and could impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank: Earnings Call Highlights Mixed Results
Sep 2, 2025

The recent earnings call for China Merchants Bank Co Class H presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both strong profitability and international growth, alongside challenges in income growth and net interest margin (NIM) contraction. While the bank celebrated achievements in wealth management and customer expansion, it faces significant hurdles due to pressure on NIM and declines in certain income streams.

China Merchants Bank Reports Stable Interim Results
Sep 1, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. is a leading financial institution in China, providing a wide range of banking products and services, including retail and wholesale banking, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets. The bank is known for its innovative financial solutions and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing customer value and operational efficiency.

China Merchants Bank Releases 2025 Interim Results
Aug 29, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. announced its unaudited interim results for the first half of 2025, showcasing its financial performance and compliance with listing regulations. The interim report, available in both Chinese and English, highlights the company’s operational analysis, financial indicators, and strategic implementation, reflecting its commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank to Announce 2025 Interim Results with Investor Webcast
Aug 21, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. announced it will disclose its 2025 interim results on the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited website on August 29, 2025. To provide investors with a deeper understanding of its performance, the company will hold a webcast press conference on September 1, 2025, featuring senior management and independent directors. This initiative aims to enhance transparency and engage with stakeholders by addressing common investor concerns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

China Merchants Bank Announces Upcoming Board Meeting for Interim Results
Aug 19, 2025

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. has announced that its board of directors will meet on August 29, 2025, to discuss and approve the interim results for the first half of 2025. The meeting will also consider the recommendation of an interim dividend, which could have implications for the company’s financial strategy and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3968) stock is a Buy with a HK$38.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Merchants Bank Co stock, see the HK:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025