Agricultural Bank of China Limited Class H (HK:1288)
:1288
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Agricultural Bank of China
(1288)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
HK$7.00
â–²(15.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals with strong cash generation and profitability, supported by favorable valuation (low P/E and attractive dividend yield). Technicals also indicate positive momentum. The main risks tempering the score are the sharp increase in leverage and earnings-call cautions around modest growth and pockets of credit and market volatility.
Positive Factors
Rural franchise & branch network
Extensive county/township branch coverage and concentrated rural lending create a durable low-cost deposit base and privileged access to underserved customers. This structural distribution supports stable funding, diversified loan origination, and long-term market share in agriculture and county finance.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A sharp increase in leverage materially raises sensitivity to funding cost shifts and market stress, narrowing the bank's capital buffer elasticity. Higher debt-to-equity can constrain strategic flexibility, amplify losses if asset quality deteriorates, and increase refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rural franchise & branch network
Extensive county/township branch coverage and concentrated rural lending create a durable low-cost deposit base and privileged access to underserved customers. This structural distribution supports stable funding, diversified loan origination, and long-term market share in agriculture and county finance.
Read all positive factors
Agricultural Bank of China (1288) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$2.56T
Dividend Yield4.81%
Average Volume (3M)107.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.8
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth0.60%
EPS Growth5.68%
CountryHK
Employees454,716
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding30,738,822,000
10 Day Avg. Volume110,935,280
30 Day Avg. Volume107,353,609
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.80
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio0.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$6.32Price Target Upside4.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$769.70B
Agricultural Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides corporate and retail banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. It offers demand, personal call, foreign currency t...
How the Company Makes Money
Agricultural Bank of China primarily makes money through banking spread and fee-based services. The largest earnings driver for a commercial bank is generally net interest income: it collects interest and related income on interest-earning assets ...
Agricultural Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presents a constructive tone: the bank highlighted steady profitability, strong balance-sheet growth, high provision coverage, leadership in rural/inclusive/green financing, expanding wealth and cross-border businesses, and active adoption of AI and bond-market strategies. Management acknowledged a complicated external environment and flagged specific areas of focus and caution — notably modest income growth, pockets of higher NPL formation in inclusive/SME segments, cautious real-estate exposure, and potential bond-market volatility. On balance, strengths (scale, provisioning, targeted growth in strategic areas, digital/AI adoption) outweigh the challenges raised.Positive Updates
Stable profitability and strong capital metrics
Net profit of RMB 292 billion (up 3.3% YoY) and operating income of RMB 725 billion (up 2.1% YoY). Net interest margin (NIM) at 1.28%, return on total assets 0.63%, weighted average return on net assets 10.16%, and capital adequacy ratio 17.39%.
Negative Updates
Modest income and profit growth
Reported revenue and profit growth were relatively low compared with scale: net profit +3.3% YoY and operating income +2.1% YoY despite strong asset growth and claims of leading industry performance, suggesting margin pressure or slower income expansion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable profitability and strong capital metrics
Net profit of RMB 292 billion (up 3.3% YoY) and operating income of RMB 725 billion (up 2.1% YoY). Net interest margin (NIM) at 1.28%, return on total assets 0.63%, weighted average return on net assets 10.16%, and capital adequacy ratio 17.39%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 toward continued positive momentum—keeping net interest income growth and profitability on an upward trend while controlling costs and credit risk—and reiterated targets to sustain loan growth roughly in line with 2025; they cited a strong starting point in early 2026 (physical loans +RMB1.1tn in the first two months and NII turned positive yoy) and committed to: expanding lending (2025 loan balance RMB27.13tn, +RMB2.23tn year‑on‑year; new loans/financial investment RMB4.7tn), supporting county/rural finance (county‑level loans RMB10.9tn, >40% of total; aim for net county‑level loan growth >RMB1tn in 2026 and farmer loan balance target >RMB2tn), growing consumer and SME finance (personal loans >RMB9tn, inclusive loans >RMB4tn, SME loans RMB3.93tn, consumer loan balance RMB1.45tn), and deepening tech/green finance (tech loans RMB4.7tn, +20.1%; green loans RMB5.93tn, +18.7%; inclusive finance RMB4.35tn, +20.9%); they also emphasized maintaining strong asset quality and buffers (NPL 1.27%, special mention 1.39%, overdue 1.25%, provision coverage ~292.5%), solid capital (CAR 17.39%), deposits and liquidity (total assets RMB48.8tn, +12.8%; deposit growth 7.7%; daily RMB deposit gains ranked first among peers), digital/AI and international expansion (cross‑border RMB settlements RMB3.82tn, +8.7%; international settlement USD16,400, +8%; overseas interplay USD118bn, +13%), and shareholder returns (2025 final dividend RMB1.30/share; full‑year dividend HKD2.495/share; payout ratio 30%).Agricultural Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37T | 1.36T | 579.72B | 559.76B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| Gross Profit | 672.20B | 724.17B | 579.72B | 694.64B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| EBITDA | 329.10B | 347.60B | 342.40B | 0.00 | 326.68B | 315.24B |
| Net Income | 293.62B | 291.04B | 282.08B | 269.36B | 259.23B | 241.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 50.86T | 48.78T | 43.24T | 39.87T | 33.93T | 29.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.23T | 4.57T | 3.35T | 4.57T | 3.76T | 3.08T |
| Total Debt | 12.95T | 3.62T | 692.88B | 2.68T | 2.20T | 1.80T |
| Total Liabilities | 47.96T | 45.54T | 40.14T | 36.98T | 31.25T | 26.65T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90T | 3.24T | 3.09T | 2.89T | 2.67T | 2.41T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.83T | 2.09T | 1.33T | 1.80T | 1.30T | 213.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.86T | 2.11T | 1.35T | 1.83T | 1.32T | 239.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.21T | -2.07T | -2.24T | -1.33T | -1.05T | -331.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.23T | 352.95B | 225.63B | 5.20T | 298.22B | 54.00B |
Agricultural Bank of China Technical Analysis
Positive
6.05
Price Trends
5.62
Positive
5.49
Positive
5.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
65.49
Neutral
74.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1288, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.01, above the 50-day MA of 5.62, and above the 200-day MA of 5.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1288.
Agricultural Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | HK$1.97T | 5.73 | 8.19% | 5.67% | -0.06% | 5.64% | |
78 Outperform | HK$2.56T | 5.75 | 9.18% | 4.81% | 0.60% | 5.68% | |
73 Outperform | HK$2.81T | 6.18 | 9.18% | 5.46% | -3.35% | 0.57% | |
70 Outperform | HK$2.34T | 5.64 | 9.77% | 5.64% | 0.25% | 3.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | HK$677.76B | 5.28 | 7.91% | 6.06% | -2.97% | -9.43% | |
65 Neutral | HK$647.34B | 5.09 | 8.09% | 5.37% | -0.97% | -13.82% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
6.07
1.40
29.98%
HK:3988
Bank of China
5.23
0.66
14.47%
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Bank of Communications Co
7.19
0.23
3.36%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
8.73
1.94
28.48%
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
6.88
1.70
32.87%
HK:1658
Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. Class H
5.06
0.13
2.64%
Agricultural Bank of China Corporate Events
Agricultural Bank of China Publishes Q1 2026 Pillar 3 Risk Disclosure
Apr 29, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has released its Pillar 3 report for the first quarter of 2026, detailing its approach to risk management, key prudential regulatory metrics, and the calculation of risk‑weighted assets. The document outlin...
Agricultural Bank of China Board Backs 2026 External Donation Quota
Apr 29, 2026
The board of directors of Agricultural Bank of China Limited convened an on-site meeting in Beijing on 29 April 2026, with all 14 directors participating either in person or by proxy, in compliance with relevant laws and the bank’s internal ...
Agricultural Bank of China Posts Higher Q1 2026 Profit and Asset Growth
Apr 29, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China reported unaudited consolidated results for the first quarter ended 31 March 2026 under IFRS Accounting Standards, showing solid top-line and asset growth. The bank’s total assets rose 4.60% from year-end 2025 to R...
Agricultural Bank of China Shareholders Back 2025 Results and 2026 Investment Budget
Apr 23, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China reported that its first extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2026 in Beijing achieved high participation, with shareholders representing about 89.66% of voting shares present through on-site and online channels. ...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Final 2025 Dividend and Clarifies Tax Treatment for H-Share Investors
Apr 23, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has confirmed the distribution of a final ordinary dividend of RMB 1.3 per 10 shares for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, payable to H-share shareholders on 16 June 2026. Shareholders may receive the dividend i...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Board Meeting to Approve Q1 2026 Results
Apr 17, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has scheduled a board meeting for 29 April 2026 in Beijing to review and approve its financial results for the first quarter ended 31 March 2026. The announcement signals the upcoming release of key quarterly performance...
Agricultural Bank of China Raises RMB50 Billion in TLAC-Eligible Bond Issue
Apr 16, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Total Loss-absorbing Capacity Eligible Non-Capital Bonds (Series 1) via the National Interbank Bond Market under Bond Connect. The RMB50 billion offering, approved at the ba...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets April 2026 EGM to Approve 2025 Results and Dividend Plan
Apr 7, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has called its first extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2026 for 23 April in Beijing, inviting eligible H-share investors to vote in person or by proxy, including via a combination of onsite and online voting. ...
Agricultural Bank of China Announces Routine Board Change as Non-Executive Director Departs
Mar 31, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China announced that Mr. Li Wei has ceased to serve as a non-executive director following the expiry of his term of office. He has also stepped down from the Board’s County Area Banking Business and Inclusive Finance Dev...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Out Board and Committee Structure
Mar 31, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive members. The disclosure underscores the bank’s governance structure and hig...
Agricultural Bank of China Board Backs 2025 Dividend Plan and Sets April ESM
Mar 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board met in Beijing and approved its 2025 profit distribution plan, which independent non-executive directors said complies with laws and protects shareholder interests, pending final approval at a shareholders&...
Agricultural Bank of China Updates Board and Committee Structure
Mar 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the current composition of its Board of Directors, listing four executive directors, six independent non-executive directors, and five non-executive directors. The disclosure underscores the bank...
Agricultural Bank of China Details Risk and Capital Framework in 2025 Pillar 3 Report
Mar 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has released its 2025 Pillar 3 report outlining its approach to risk management, capital composition, and key prudential regulatory metrics. The report details how the bank assesses and manages credit, market, operationa...
Agricultural Bank of China Proposes 2025 Final Dividend for Hong Kong Shareholders
Mar 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has proposed a final ordinary cash dividend of RMB 1.3 per 10 shares for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, to be distributed to holders of its Hong Kong-listed shares. The dividend, subject to shareholder approv...
Agricultural Bank of China Posts Strong 2025 Results, Reinforcing Global Standing
Mar 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a major state-controlled commercial bank in China, operates as an integrated financial services provider with a strong focus on rural revitalization and support for the real economy. Through a comprehensive port...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Webcast for 2025 Annual Results Disclosure
Mar 20, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has scheduled the release of its 2025 annual results for 30 March 2026 and will host an online results presentation the same day from 17:00 to 18:00. The webcast will feature the bank’s president, independent non-e...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets March 2026 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Final Dividend
Mar 18, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has scheduled a board meeting for 30 March 2026 in Beijing to review and approve its audited annual results for the financial year ended 31 December 2025. The board will also consider the proposal of a final dividend, a ...
Agricultural Bank of China Board Clears 2026 Investment Budget and Reshuffles Key Roles
Feb 13, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board met in Beijing on 13 February 2026, with all 15 directors present, and approved the bank’s fixed assets investment budget for 2026, which will now go to shareholders for consideration. The meeting, ch...
Agricultural Bank of China Details Board Line-up and Governance Structure
Feb 13, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive members and clarifying their respective roles. The disclosure also outlines membership an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.