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Agricultural Bank of China Limited Class H (HK:1288)
:1288
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Agricultural Bank of China (1288) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:1288

Agricultural Bank of China

(1288)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
HK$6.00
▲(2.56% Upside)
The overall stock score of 77 reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, supported by a solid valuation. However, technical analysis indicates a neutral trend, and there are concerns about cash flow management and declining net profit margins.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors

Agricultural Bank of China (1288) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Agricultural Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is one of the largest commercial banks in China, primarily focused on providing financial services to the agricultural sector, rural areas, and urban customers. The bank operates in various sectors, including corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. Core products and services include loans, deposits, wealth management, credit card services, and trade finance, catering to both agricultural and non-agricultural clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Agricultural Bank of China generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances extended to its customers, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. The bank offers various types of loans, including personal loans, corporate loans, and agricultural loans, with interest rates that contribute to its overall income. Additionally, ABC earns fee-based income from services such as wealth management, credit card transactions, and trade finance services. The bank also engages in treasury operations, including foreign exchange transactions and investment securities, which further bolster its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with agricultural enterprises and government initiatives aimed at rural development enhance its customer base and market penetration, contributing positively to its financial performance.

Agricultural Bank of China Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, significant growth in rural and green financing, and advancements in digital and SME support. However, challenges remain with the decline in NIM and risks in the real estate market and local government loans. Overall, the positive aspects of growth and financial stability outweigh the challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
ABC reported a net profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025. Operating revenue also showed positive growth, with an increase of 0.7% and 0.4 percentage points compared to Q1 2025.
Improvement in Asset Quality
The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, with a special mention decrease of 1 basis point and a low overdue loan level maintained at 2.2%.
Significant Growth in Rural Financing
The credit investment in rural areas increased by RMB 900 million, totaling RMB 1 trillion. Loans for inclusive farming grew by 12.9%, and food security loan growth was 23.7% year-on-year.
Advancements in Green Financing
ABC issued green bonds and securities with a total green financing balance of RMB 572 million. The bank has incorporated green financing into its corporate structure.
Expansion in Digital Financing
Digital financing loans grew by 13.7% year-on-year, with the monthly average increment of retail consumers ranking #1 among peers.
Record Personal Loan Growth
Personal loans increased by 9.3%, with significant growth in personal mortgage loans and operational loans. Retail loans saw an increase of over RMB 100 billion.
Strong Support for SMEs
Inclusive financing services for SMEs reached RMB 4.24 trillion, leading in industry coverage and service strength.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Interest Margin (NIM)
The NIM for the first half of 2025 was 1.32%, down 10 basis points from the previous year, attributed to the environment of low interest rates.
Concerns in Real Estate Market
Despite a decrease in NPLs by 0.05 percentage points, the real estate market remains a focus for risk management and potential challenges.
Pressure from Local Government Loans
There is ongoing pressure to mitigate risks associated with local government loans, with an emphasis on reducing exposure and adhering to market principles.
Company Guidance
During the 2025 mid-annual results conference for the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), key metrics highlighted include a net profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025. Operating revenue and income showed positive growth, with growth rates climbing by 0.7% and 0.4 percentage points compared to Q1 2025. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 2 basis points (bps) since the start of the year, while overdue loans remained low at 2.2%. ABC's provision coverage maintained over RMB 10 billion with a 95% coverage ratio, leading among peers. New loans totaled RMB 129 million, showing a 9.3% growth, and personal loans increased by 7.8% year-on-year. ABC's digital financing efforts led to a 13.7% year-on-year loan growth. The bank plans to continue focusing on rural projects, risk management, and supporting the real economy in the second half of the year.

Agricultural Bank of China Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Agricultural Bank of China exhibits robust financial performance with significant revenue growth and high profitability. The balance sheet is strong with zero debt and a stable equity position. Cash flow management is efficient, despite some fluctuations in free cash flow. Overall, the bank is well-positioned for future growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The Agricultural Bank of China shows a strong financial performance with significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 at 26.93%. The net profit margin for 2024 is 39.71%, indicating high profitability. Despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA data for 2024, the historical EBIT margins have been robust. Overall, the income statement demonstrates a trend of increasing revenue and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity position, as evidenced by a healthy equity ratio of 7.15% in 2024. The bank has managed to operate with zero debt in 2024, highlighting excellent financial health. The consistent increase in stockholders' equity indicates stability and growth potential.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong at 1.35 trillion in 2024, with a high free cash flow to net income ratio. Although there is a decline in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, the cash flow from operations comfortably supports net income, showing efficient cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue871.82B579.72B559.76B550.02B555.86B494.63B
Gross Profit656.26B579.72B694.64B550.02B555.86B494.63B
EBITDA322.27B342.40B0.00326.68B315.24B0.00
Net Income285.70B282.08B269.36B259.23B241.18B215.93B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets46.86T43.24T39.87T33.93T29.07T27.21T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.41T3.35T4.57T3.76T3.08T3.51T
Total Debt3.47T692.88B2.68T2.20T1.80T452.30B
Total Liabilities43.71T40.14T36.98T31.25T26.65T24.99T
Stockholders Equity3.14T3.09T2.89T2.67T2.41T2.20T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.04T1.33T1.80T1.30T213.58B-83.78B
Operating Cash Flow2.07T1.35T1.83T1.32T239.62B-60.94B
Investing Cash Flow-1.14T-2.24T-1.33T-1.05T-331.24B-469.26B
Financing Cash Flow270.57B225.63B5.20T298.22B54.00B269.80B

Agricultural Bank of China Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.85
Price Trends
50DMA
5.39
Positive
100DMA
5.38
Positive
200DMA
4.94
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
75.73
Negative
STOCH
91.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1288, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.33, above the 50-day MA of 5.39, and above the 200-day MA of 4.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1288.

Agricultural Bank of China Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$2.04T5.2910.22%5.53%-3.01%0.90%
78
Outperform
$2.74T5.289.68%5.81%-3.35%0.58%
77
Outperform
$2.87T6.3410.76%4.55%-1.70%11.36%
77
Outperform
$1.58T4.936.00%-1.13%2.56%
76
Outperform
$618.64B5.126.00%1.69%
74
Outperform
$1.16T7.7114.30%4.43%-3.23%1.81%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
5.85
2.08
55.09%
HK:3988
Bank of China
4.36
0.82
22.99%
HK:3328
Bank of Communications Co
6.86
1.14
19.83%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
7.81
2.08
36.21%
HK:3968
China Merchants Bank Co
49.46
10.88
28.20%
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
5.96
1.48
33.12%

Agricultural Bank of China Corporate Events

Agricultural Bank of China Schedules Board Meeting for Q3 Financial Results
Oct 17, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced that its board of directors will convene on October 30, 2025, to review and approve the financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the bank’s financial performance and potentially impact its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Secures Approval for Amended Articles of Association
Sep 25, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited announced that its amended Articles of Association have been approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration. This approval, effective immediately, signifies a regulatory endorsement of the bank’s governance framework, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Restructures Governance with Board of Supervisors Dissolution
Sep 25, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the dissolution of its Board of Supervisors following the approval of amendments to its Articles of Association by the National Financial Regulatory Administration. The functions and powers of the dissolved board will now be assumed by the Audit Committee of the bank’s board of directors, in accordance with Chinese company law. This restructuring is expected to streamline the bank’s governance and enhance its operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Announces Executive Resignation
Sep 22, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited announced the resignation of Mr. LIU Hong from his position as executive vice president due to a position change. Mr. LIU Hong, who has been serving as a deputy secretary of the Party Committee since August 2025, has no disagreements with the board and leaves without any pending commitments. The board expressed gratitude for his contributions to the bank’s development.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Nominates Liu Hong as Executive Director
Sep 22, 2025

The Agricultural Bank of China Limited’s board of directors convened a meeting to nominate Mr. Liu Hong as an executive director candidate. The nomination was unanimously approved and is pending shareholder approval and regulatory ratification. Mr. Liu, a seasoned executive with extensive experience within the bank, is expected to enhance the bank’s leadership team, potentially impacting its strategic direction and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Completes RMB60 Billion Capital Notes Issuance
Sep 19, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 3) through the National Interbank Bond Market, raising RMB60 billion. This issuance, divided into two tranches with fixed interest rates, aims to strengthen the bank’s Tier 2 capital, enhancing its financial stability and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Announces Chief Risk Officer’s Retirement
Sep 8, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited announced the resignation of Mr. WU Gang from his position as Chief Risk Officer due to his retirement. The board expressed gratitude for his diligent service and confirmed that there are no disagreements or issues related to his departure that need to be addressed with shareholders or creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Reports Strong Earnings Amid Challenges
Sep 2, 2025

The recent earnings call for the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) painted a picture of robust financial health, marked by strong growth in rural and green financing, and significant strides in digital and SME support. Despite facing challenges such as a decline in Net Interest Margin (NIM) and risks in the real estate market and local government loans, the overall sentiment was positive, with growth and financial stability taking center stage.

Agricultural Bank of China Reports Strong Interim Results
Aug 30, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a major financial service provider in China, focuses on rural revitalization and the real economy, offering a wide range of banking products and services. In its interim results for the first half of 2025, the bank reported a net profit of RMB139.9 billion, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, with total assets reaching RMB46.9 trillion. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 17.45%, and it maintained a non-performing loan ratio of 1.28%. The bank’s strategic focus on supporting agriculture and rural areas resulted in significant loan growth in these sectors, with loans in County Areas surpassing RMB10 trillion. Additionally, the bank enhanced its support for the real economy, increasing loans for technology, green finance, and private enterprises. Looking forward, the bank aims to continue its focus on high-quality development, optimizing financial services for rural areas, and maintaining robust risk management practices.

Agricultural Bank of China Releases 2025 Mid-Year Pillar 3 Report
Aug 29, 2025

The Agricultural Bank of China has released its Pillar 3 Report for the first half of 2025, detailing its risk management strategies and regulatory compliance metrics. The report highlights the bank’s focus on maintaining robust capital composition and managing credit, market, and liquidity risks effectively, which is crucial for its stability and growth in the competitive banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Approves Dividend and Profit Distribution Plans
Aug 29, 2025

The Agricultural Bank of China Limited’s Board of Directors recently convened to approve two significant financial proposals. The first was a dividend payment scheme for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, involving a cash dividend of RMB4.12 per preference share, totaling RMB1.648 billion, to be distributed to preference shareholders. The second proposal was an interim profit distribution plan for 2025, which will be presented to the shareholders’ general meeting for approval. These decisions reflect the bank’s commitment to maintaining shareholder value and adhering to regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Announces Interim Dividend for 2025
Aug 29, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced a proposed distribution of an interim dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2025, with a declared dividend of RMB 1.195 per 10 shares. The announcement outlines that the dividend will be paid in RMB, with an option for Hong Kong shareholders to receive payment in HKD, though the exchange rate and specific dates for shareholder approval, ex-dividend, and payment are yet to be announced. This move reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may impact its market positioning by showcasing financial stability and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Reports Strong Interim Results for 2025
Aug 29, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited announced its unaudited interim results for the first half of 2025, reporting a net profit of RMB139,943 million. The bank continues to be recognized as a Global Systemically Important Bank and maintains strong credit ratings from major agencies, reflecting its robust financial position and strategic focus on high-quality development in rural and green finance. The results underscore the bank’s significant role in China’s financial sector and its commitment to serving a broad range of customers through its extensive network.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Redeems 2020 Tier 1 Capital Bonds
Aug 26, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the redemption of its 2020 undated additional tier 1 capital bonds, initially issued at a size of RMB35.0 billion in the National Interbank Bond Market. With approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the bank exercised its redemption rights, completing the process on 25 August 2025, which may impact its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China to Present 2025 Interim Results
Aug 21, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced that it will release its 2025 interim results on August 29, 2025. To provide a comprehensive understanding of its performance in the first half of 2025, the bank will hold a webcast presentation on the same day, featuring its President and senior management. This event aims to engage with investors, analysts, and media, addressing common concerns related to the interim results. The bank will also make the presentation and Q&A session available online for further investor access.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Buy with a HK$6.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Schedules Board Meeting to Review Interim Results
Aug 19, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced that its board of directors will meet on August 29, 2025, to review and approve the bank’s interim results for the first half of 2025 and to consider the payment of an interim dividend. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the bank’s financial performance and strategic decisions, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Completes RMB50 Billion Bond Issuance
Aug 5, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 Total Loss-absorbing Capacity Eligible Non-Capital Bonds (Series 2) in the National Interbank Bond Market, raising RMB50 billion. The issuance, divided into three tranches with varying terms and interest rates, is aimed at enhancing the bank’s loss-absorbing capacity, which is crucial for its financial stability and compliance with regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Completes RMB60 Billion Tier 2 Capital Notes Issuance
Jul 24, 2025

Agricultural Bank of China Limited has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 2) through the Bond Connect program, raising RMB60.0 billion. This issuance, divided into two tranches with varying interest rates and redemption conditions, aims to enhance the bank’s Tier 2 capital, thereby strengthening its financial stability and capacity to absorb losses, in line with regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Agricultural Bank of China Announces Board of Directors and Committee Roles
Jul 23, 2025

The Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the list of its board of directors and their respective roles and functions within various board committees. This announcement highlights the leadership structure of the bank, which is crucial for its strategic planning and risk management efforts. The board comprises executive, independent non-executive, and non-executive directors, who will oversee committees focused on areas such as audit and compliance, risk management, and consumer interests protection. This structured governance is expected to enhance the bank’s operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1288) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agricultural Bank of China stock, see the HK:1288 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 14, 2025