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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Class H (HK:1398)
:1398

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) AI Stock Analysis

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HK

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

(OTC:1398)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
ICBC's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its stock score. Despite some technical weakness, the bank's robust cash generation, low leverage, and strategic growth initiatives provide a solid foundation. However, challenges such as declining net interest margins and increased NPL ratios in certain segments pose risks.
Positive Factors
Economic Growth
ICBC’s growth is positively correlated with China’s economic outlook, and more signs of economic stimulus and stability would be key share price catalysts for the bank.
Financial Performance
Steady loan growth supports net interest, with corporate loan balance expanding by c.8.3% y/y as of end-FY24 and further by 6.7% y/y by the end of 1Q25.
Investment Recommendation
Reiterate BUY with TP raised to HKD 7.3, with FY25F dividend yield of >5% to attract long-term fund.
Negative Factors
Interest Margin
Net interest margin (NIM) dropped mainly due to loan repricing.
Profitability
Net profit dropped by approximately 4%.
Real Estate Market
Fiscal stimulus effect not as strong as expected, significant drop in China's property prices, and deterioration in asset quality.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), listed under the stock code 1398, is one of the largest banks in the world by total assets. ICBC operates primarily in the financial services industry, providing a comprehensive range of products and services. These include corporate and personal banking, investment banking, asset management, wealth management, and financial leasing. Its extensive network spans across mainland China as well as international markets, serving millions of corporate clients and individual customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyICBC generates its revenue through various streams, with interest income being the most significant. This includes interest received from loans and advances to customers, as well as interest from securities and interbank deposits. In addition to interest income, the bank earns substantial fees and commissions from services such as wealth management, investment banking, and transaction processing. The bank also generates revenue through trading and investment activities, which include gains from foreign exchange transactions and securities investments. ICBC's broad array of financial products and a large customer base contribute to its consistent earnings, alongside strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its service offerings and market reach.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 15.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
ICBC demonstrated robust growth in key financial metrics, improved risk control, and expanded technological and international operations. However, challenges remain with declining net interest margins and increased retail loan NPL ratios.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Operating Performance
As of the end of 2024, ICBC's total assets were nearly RMB49 trillion. Customer loans exceeded RMB28 trillion, an increase of RMB2.3 trillion from the end of last year. Customer deposits were nearly RMB35 trillion, an increase of over RMB1.3 trillion from the previous year, both maintaining a global lead.
Enhanced Risk Control
NPL ratio was 1.34% with provision coverage at 214.91%, laying a more solid foundation for steady operation. Real estate NPL down by 38 basis points for the whole year.
Dividend Payment Increase
ICBC increased the frequency and times of dividend payout in 2024, paying interim dividends for the first time, totaling RMB51.1 billion, with a year-end dividend of RMB58.7 billion planned.
Technological Advancements
ICBC implemented the industry's first billion-level large model Zhiyong into more than 20 business lines and 200 use cases. The MAU of mobile banking application exceeded 200 million.
Strong International Operations
Overseas institutions maintained stable operations with a pretax profit exceeding US$3.9 billion, up 21.6%. The total assets of overseas institutions exceeded US$430 billion, up by 4% year-on-year.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Decline
Net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 19 basis points from the end of the previous year, indicating pressure from a low-interest-rate environment.
Retail Loan NPL Increase
The NPL ratio in retail sales lines such as personal business loans, consumption loans, and credit card loans rose, although remaining at a controllable level.
Asset Quality Pressure in Real Estate
Despite improvements, the real estate sector's NPL ratio stood at 4.99%, highlighting ongoing challenges in this area.
Company Guidance
In the 2024 Annual Earnings Call of ICBC, significant metrics were highlighted to showcase the bank's robust financial performance and strategic initiatives. As of the end of 2024, ICBC's total assets were nearly RMB49 trillion, with customer loans exceeding RMB28 trillion, marking an increase of RMB2.3 trillion from the previous year. Customer deposits reached nearly RMB35 trillion, an increase of over RMB1.3 trillion. The annual operating revenue was reported at RMB786.1 billion, while the net profit stood at RMB366.9 billion. The net interest margin was 1.42%, and the cost-to-income ratio was 29.43%, reflecting efficient cost management. The capital adequacy ratio improved to 19.39%, while the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was maintained at 1.34%, with provision coverage at 214.91%. Additionally, ICBC announced an increase in dividend frequency, with interim dividends amounting to RMB51.1 billion and a year-end dividend of RMB58.7 billion. The bank also emphasized progress in digital finance, with its mobile banking application achieving over 200 million monthly active users and open banking transactions exceeding RMB375 trillion.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ICBC demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and equity positions. Despite some volatility in revenue growth, the bank's strong cash flow generation and low leverage provide stability, essential for a diversified bank.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has demonstrated stable and strong financial performance. The gross profit margin is consistently high, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin remains solid, showing profitability. However, revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent years showing a decline in total revenue. The lack of EBIT and EBITDA data limits further profitability analysis.
Balance Sheet
87
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects a robust equity base and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicative of financial stability and low leverage, which is favorable for a bank. The equity ratio is healthy, supporting the bank's strong financial standing. However, the increasing total liabilities warrant monitoring for potential risk management.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates strong operating cash flow, which comfortably exceeds net income, suggesting good cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow has shown fluctuations, and the growth rate has been uneven in recent years. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains solid, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue809.78B817.28B656.94B913.56B939.89B881.36B
Gross Profit809.78B817.28B838.05B913.56B939.89B881.36B
EBITDA94.31B0.000.000.000.000.00
Net Income362.37B365.86B363.99B361.13B348.34B315.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.55T48.82T44.70T39.61T35.17T33.35T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.54T6.97T5.30T4.74T4.19T4.90T
Total Debt3.04T2.60T1.90T1.43T1.28T1.27T
Total Liabilities47.49T44.83T40.92T1.43T1.28T1.27T
Stockholders Equity4.04T3.97T3.76T3.50T3.26T2.89T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow120.46B543.61B1.40T1.39T339.02B1.53T
Operating Cash Flow154.42B579.19B1.42T1.40T360.88B1.56T
Investing Cash Flow-2.07T-1.47T-891.85B-910.62B-674.56B-1.14T
Financing Cash Flow735.78B415.68B285.44B-64.79B-11.55B-46.95B

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.21
Price Trends
50DMA
5.74
Positive
100DMA
5.54
Positive
200DMA
5.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Positive
RSI
62.04
Neutral
STOCH
40.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1398, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.09, above the 50-day MA of 5.74, and above the 200-day MA of 5.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1398.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$2.37T6.3910.80%4.98%-0.43%11.31%
82
Outperform
HK$2.23T5.8210.81%10.62%-3.79%-0.62%
80
Outperform
$741.29B5.70
11.58%0.12%
78
Outperform
HK$2.90T5.669.72%5.80%-3.41%-0.73%
77
Outperform
$1.74T5.449.57%11.16%6.59%-0.89%
74
Outperform
$1.33T8.2614.86%4.27%-2.77%0.10%
58
Neutral
HK$91.33B5.23-3.21%5.29%7.36%-55.21%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
6.21
2.02
48.07%
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
5.52
2.21
66.87%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
8.35
3.09
58.84%
HK:3328
Bank of Communications Co
7.43
1.95
35.56%
HK:3968
China Merchants Bank Co
51.25
17.62
52.39%
HK:3988
Bank of China
4.69
1.37
41.27%

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Corporate Events

ICBC Announces Retirement of Independent Director Fred Zuliu Hu
Apr 30, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited announced the retirement of Mr. Fred Zuliu Hu from his role as Independent Non-executive Director, along with his positions on various committees, effective April 30, 2025. Mr. Hu’s departure marks the end of a term during which he made significant contributions to the bank’s corporate governance and strategic planning. The bank’s Board of Directors expressed their gratitude for his diligent service and contributions.

ICBC Announces Board Composition and Governance Structure
Apr 30, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced the composition of its board of directors, which includes executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors. The board has established eight committees to oversee various aspects of the bank’s operations, indicating a structured approach to governance and risk management. This announcement reflects the bank’s commitment to maintaining robust governance practices, which could enhance its industry positioning and reassure stakeholders about its management and oversight capabilities.

ICBC Completes RMB50 Billion Tier 2 Capital Notes Issuance
Apr 30, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 2) in the National Interbank Bond Market, raising RMB50 billion. These 10-year fixed-rate notes, with an interest rate of 1.98% and a conditional redemption option at the end of the fifth year, will be used to enhance the bank’s tier 2 capital, strengthening its financial position and compliance with regulatory requirements.

ICBC Reports Decrease in Q1 2025 Profits Amid Asset Growth
Apr 29, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited reported its first-quarter financial results for 2025, showing a decrease in operating income and net profit compared to the same period last year. Despite a 5.58% increase in total assets, the bank experienced a decline in net cash flows from operating activities by 31.07%, which may impact its financial stability and stakeholder confidence.

ICBC Board Approves Key Proposals for 2025
Apr 29, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited held a Board of Directors meeting where several key proposals were approved, including the First Quarterly Report of 2025 and revisions to the Articles of Association and Rules of Procedures. These proposals, which received unanimous support, will be submitted to the Shareholders’ General Meeting for further consideration. The decisions reflect the bank’s ongoing efforts to align its governance and operational frameworks with updated regulatory and strategic objectives, potentially impacting its governance structure and stakeholder engagement.

ICBC Board of Supervisors Approves Q1 2025 Report
Apr 29, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited held a meeting of its Board of Supervisors to address the approval of the bank’s first quarterly report for 2025. The meeting, which was conducted in compliance with relevant laws and regulations, resulted in the unanimous approval of the report, indicating that it accurately reflects the bank’s current situation. This approval underscores the bank’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially strengthening its position in the financial industry and assuring stakeholders of its operational integrity.

ICBC Announces Change in Hong Kong Representative
Apr 15, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced a change in its authorized representative for service of process in Hong Kong. Mr. Liu Gang has been appointed to replace Mr. Xu Keen, effective from April 15, 2025, as part of compliance with Hong Kong’s listing rules and company ordinance.

ICBC to Review Q1 2025 Financial Results
Apr 15, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced that its Board of Directors will meet on April 29, 2025, to approve the financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the bank’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

ICBC Announces Final Cash Dividend for 2024
Mar 28, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited announced a final cash dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024, amounting to RMB 1.646 per 10 shares. The dividend will be paid in Hong Kong dollars, with the exchange rate to be announced. This announcement reflects the bank’s continued profitability and commitment to returning value to shareholders, with the payment date set for August 22, 2025.

ICBC’s 2024 Pillar 3 Disclosure Highlights Risk Management and Capital Strategy
Mar 28, 2025

The 2024 Pillar 3 Disclosure Report from ICBC outlines the bank’s approach to capital management and risk assessment. The report details key aspects such as risk management strategies, regulatory indicators, and risk-weighted assets. It also covers the composition of capital and total loss-absorbing capacity, highlighting ICBC’s commitment to maintaining financial stability and regulatory compliance. The disclosure provides insights into the bank’s credit risk, market risk, and operational risk management, emphasizing its robust framework for handling financial uncertainties. This comprehensive report is crucial for stakeholders to understand ICBC’s financial health and strategic positioning in the banking sector.

ICBC Board Approves Key 2024 Proposals for Shareholder Review
Mar 28, 2025

The Board of Directors of ICBC held a meeting to approve several key proposals for the year 2024, including the audited accounts, profit distribution plan, annual report, capital management disclosure, and sustainability report. All proposals were unanimously approved, reflecting the bank’s commitment to transparency and sustainable growth, and will be submitted to the Shareholders’ General Meeting for further consideration.

ICBC Board of Supervisors Approves Key 2024 Proposals
Mar 28, 2025

The Board of Supervisors of ICBC held a meeting to approve several key proposals for the year 2024, including the annual report, audited accounts, profit distribution plan, sustainability report, and internal control assessment. All proposals were unanimously approved, reflecting the bank’s adherence to regulatory requirements and its commitment to transparency and effective governance. These resolutions are expected to support ICBC’s operational stability and enhance its industry positioning.

ICBC Announces 2024 Audited Annual Results
Mar 28, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced its audited annual results for the year ending December 31, 2024. The results have been reviewed and confirmed by the Board of Directors and the Audit Committee, indicating a transparent and accountable financial reporting process. This announcement is significant as it reflects the bank’s financial health and operational performance, which are crucial for stakeholders and investors.

ICBC to Announce 2024 Annual Results via Webcast
Mar 20, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced that it will disclose its 2024 annual results on March 28, 2025, through a webcast. This event aims to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of the bank’s annual performance and operational conditions. The announcement underscores the bank’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

ICBC Board Meeting Scheduled to Approve 2024 Financial Results
Mar 18, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced that its Board of Directors will hold a meeting on March 28, 2025, to approve the annual financial results for the year ending December 31, 2024, and to discuss dividend payments. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the bank’s financial performance and potential returns for shareholders, impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

ICBC Completes Issuance of 2025 Tier 2 Capital Notes
Mar 3, 2025

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 Tier 2 Capital Notes, raising RMB50 billion. This issuance, approved by regulatory authorities, aims to enhance the bank’s tier 2 capital, thereby strengthening its financial stability and market position.

ICBC Appoints Li Weiping as Independent Director
Feb 25, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced the approval of Li Weiping as an Independent Non-executive Director by the National Financial Regulatory Administration. This appointment is effective immediately, and Mr. Li Weiping joins the Board of Directors, potentially strengthening the bank’s governance and strategic oversight.

ICBC Announces Board Composition and Committee Roles
Feb 25, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced the composition of its board of directors, highlighting the roles and functions of each member. The board is structured with executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors, and has established eight committees to oversee various aspects of the bank’s operations. This announcement underscores the bank’s commitment to robust governance and strategic oversight, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive position in the financial industry.

ICBC Board Approves 2025 Finance Plans and Director Nomination
Feb 14, 2025

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited held a Board of Directors meeting on February 14, 2025, where key resolutions were passed. The board approved the Inclusive Finance Business Operation Plan and the Fixed Asset Investment Budget for 2025, which will be presented at the Shareholders’ General Meeting. Additionally, Mr. Dong Yang was nominated for re-election as a non-executive director, ensuring continuity in ICBC’s strategic committees. These decisions reflect ICBC’s commitment to inclusive growth and strategic investments, potentially strengthening its market positioning and operational stability.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 01, 2025