Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)
NYSE:HHH
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Howard Hughes Holdings
(NYSE:HHH)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▼(-11.87% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and cash generation, reinforced by a constructive earnings call highlighting strong MPC/NOI performance and strengthened liquidity. These positives are tempered by leverage and cyclicality in the financial profile, and a mixed technical picture with the stock still below longer-term moving averages. Valuation contribution is limited due to unavailable/invalid P/E and missing dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained free cash flow near $444M with strong cash conversion provides durable internal funding for development, debt service, and strategic deployments. This reduces reliance on external capital through cycles and supports value-accretive uses like the planned Vantage investment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful leverage (debt above equity) increases sensitivity to interest rates and cyclical downturns in land and leasing markets. Higher debt amplifies downside risk, constrains discretionary capital deployment, and leaves less room for margin compression before cash flow stress appears.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained free cash flow near $444M with strong cash conversion provides durable internal funding for development, debt service, and strategic deployments. This reduces reliance on external capital through cycles and supports value-accretive uses like the planned Vantage investment.
Read all positive factors
Howard Hughes Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)456.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)113.1
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth-17.29%
EPS Growth-60.87%
CountryUS
Employees545
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.05
Shares Outstanding59,624,588
10 Day Avg. Volume473,133
30 Day Avg. Volume456,040
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)3.18
P/FCF Ratio10.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit38.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.33Price Target Upside12.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.63B
Howard Hughes Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Operating Assets; Master Planned Communities (MPCs); Seaport; and Strategic Developments...
How the Company Makes Money
HHH primarily makes money through a combination of (1) master planned community (MPC) activities and (2) recurring income from operating real estate, plus (3) ancillary real estate monetization. In its MPC business, the company develops large, ent...
Howard Hughes Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: MPC earnings and pricing showed strong momentum (MPC EBT +33% YoY), operating NOI grew (2% YoY, 7% TTM), and the company strengthened liquidity and executed a favorable refinancing. Management introduced clearer KPIs, outlined a large, de‑risked condo pipeline (~$5B future GAAP revenue at sell-up), and laid out a strategic plan to deploy $2.5–$3.0B of cash into higher‑return insurance opportunities via the Vantage acquisition (on track to close in Q2). Near-term negatives are limited to lumpy condo GAAP timing (breakeven in Q1), incremental G&A/transaction costs ($3.4M Vantage-related), and removal of annual guidance, plus a continued disconnect between management’s valuation and the current market price. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, driven by strong cash generation, improved liquidity, strategic acquisition upside, and clearer long-term metrics.Positive Updates
Strong MPC Earnings Growth
Master Planned Community (MPC) earnings before taxes (EBT) were $84 million in Q1, up 33% year-over-year, driven by higher residential land sales and pricing power in key communities.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Condo Gross Profit Lumpy and Breakeven in Q1
Condo gross profit was roughly breakeven in Q1 as expected due to timing of tower deliveries; management warns condo profit recognition will remain lumpy quarter-to-quarter even though underlying presales and economics are largely locked in.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong MPC Earnings Growth
Master Planned Community (MPC) earnings before taxes (EBT) were $84 million in Q1, up 33% year-over-year, driven by higher residential land sales and pricing power in key communities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company withdrew annual guidance given the pending Vantage acquisition and shifted to longer‑term, platform-level objectives, but did provide a number of new KPIs and quarter metrics: Communities MPC EBT was $84 million in Q1, up 33% year‑over‑year; Bridgeland closed 62 acres (vs. 37 a year ago) with net new home sales +12%, Summerlin custom lots averaged $7.2M/acre and super pads $1.8M/acre with new home sales +6%; operating asset NOI grew 2% YoY and 7% on a trailing‑12‑month same‑store basis; condo gross profit was roughly breakeven in Q1 (≈$5B of estimated future GAAP revenue at sell‑up and Lē‘ahi ~70% presold), and condo profits should rise with Park Ward Village closings in Q2; quarter G&A was $25.8M (including $3.8M Pershing fees and $3.4M Vantage transaction costs), net interest expense declined YoY, the company completed a $1.0B refinancing that added $230M liquidity, closed a $300M Downtown Summerlin mortgage, and finished the quarter with ~$1.8B of cash (including $929M at HHC); management expects the Vantage close in Q2, projects $2.5B–$3.0B of cash generation over five years, and presented a conservative intrinsic value of ~$104/share today rising to ~$211/share by 2030 (implying ~3.3x current price).Howard Hughes Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.51B | 1.47B | 1.75B | 1.02B | 1.49B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 199.81M | 276.10M | 731.95M | 433.97M | 642.06M | 510.68M |
| EBITDA | 518.26M | 517.54M | 710.44M | -342.20M | 602.23M | 399.26M |
| Net Income | 121.59M | 123.90M | 197.70M | -551.77M | 184.53M | 56.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.25B | 10.64B | 9.21B | 9.58B | 9.60B | 9.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.84B | 1.47B | 596.08M | 629.71M | 626.65M | 843.21M |
| Total Debt | 5.80B | 5.11B | 5.13B | 5.15B | 4.80B | 4.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.40B | 6.80B | 6.37B | 6.52B | 6.00B | 5.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.78B | 3.78B | 2.78B | 2.99B | 3.54B | 3.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 444.38M | 440.76M | 350.85M | -295.73M | 323.25M | -285.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 467.08M | 462.37M | 400.94M | -248.18M | 325.25M | -283.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -213.47M | -219.07M | -307.25M | -348.92M | -220.69M | 101.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.40B | 855.35M | -148.25M | 551.22M | -222.26M | 156.14M |
Howard Hughes Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
80.56
Price Trends
63.80
Negative
71.01
Negative
75.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
48.21
Neutral
53.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HHH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 80.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.60, above the 50-day MA of 63.80, and above the 200-day MA of 75.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HHH.
Howard Hughes Holdings Risk Analysis
Howard Hughes Holdings disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Howard Hughes Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Howard Hughes Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.23B | 29.65 | 5.61% | 6.47% | 13.50% | 7.25% | |
70 Outperform | $3.66B | 64.77 | 14.79% | 0.98% | 26.63% | 45.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.80B | 113.10 | 3.25% | ― | -17.29% | -60.87% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $5.73B | 40.91 | 8.20% | 8.28% | -1.65% | 27.25% | |
60 Neutral | $3.33B | -8.32 | -3.89% | 6.95% | 7.65% | -478.02% | |
58 Neutral | $6.05B | -33.54 | -7.35% | 3.61% | -2.56% | 60.74% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
63.69
-2.95
-4.43%
MAC
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22.17
7.84
54.68%
SBRA
Sabra Healthcare REIT
20.72
4.32
26.38%
SLG
SL Green Realty
43.27
-9.51
-18.03%
JOE
St Joe Company
63.81
21.03
49.16%
NSA
National Storage Affiliates
42.71
10.96
34.52%
Howard Hughes Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Howard Hughes Posts Q1 Results, Prepares Vantage Acquisition
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Howard Hughes Holdings reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, with net income attributable to common stockholders declining to $8.2 million from $10.5 million a year earlier, despite a 2% rise in Operating Assets NOI to $73.1 million ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Howard Hughes Adds Grandisson to Board, Raises Capital
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced that former Arch Capital Group CEO Marc Grandisson will join its Board of Directors effective May 7, 2026, as one of Pershing Square’s appointees, replacing Ben Hakim. Grandisson, cred...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Howard Hughes Sets 2026 Annual Meeting and Deadlines
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings set June 4, 2026, as the date for its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders and designated April 6, 2026, as the record date for shareholders entitled to vote. The company said further logistical details for ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Howard Hughes Unveils Strategic Expansion Into Insurance Holdings
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Howard Hughes Holdings reported that for 2025 net income from continuing operations declined to $123.8 million from $285.2 million a year earlier, while adjusted operating cash flow also fell, even as its Master Planned Communities and Operating A...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Howard Hughes Refinances Debt with New Senior Notes
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced that its subsidiary, The Howard Hughes Corporation, had closed a $1 billion private offering of senior notes, split between $500 million of 5.875% notes due 2032 and $500 million of 6.125...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.