Rayonier (RYN) AI Stock Analysis

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Rayonier

(NYSE:RYN)

64Neutral

Rayonier's overall stock performance is balanced with strengths in financial management and attractive valuation. However, technical indicators reveal bearish trends, and the company faces immediate challenges in specific segments like Southern Timber. Strategic actions like the sale of the New Zealand business could improve future prospects, enhancing shareholder returns and focusing on core operations.

Rayonier (RYN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.82B

Dividend Yield4.61%

Average Volume (3M)1.12M

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2

Beta (1Y)0.84

Revenue Growth19.50%

EPS Growth106.12%

CountryUS

Employees424

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength83

IndustryREIT - Specialty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.36

Shares Outstanding156,056,460

10 Day Avg. Volume767,678

30 Day Avg. Volume1,119,137

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.10

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.34

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$30.00

Price Target Upside27.17% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

Rayonier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRayonier is a leading timberland real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the most productive softwood timber growing regions in the United States and New Zealand. As of December 31, 2020, Rayonier owned or leased under long-term agreements approximately 2.7 million acres of timberlands located in the U.S. South (1.73 million acres), U.S. Pacific Northwest (507,000 acres) and New Zealand (417,000 acres). The Company also acts as the managing member in a private equity timber fund business with three funds comprising approximately 141,000 acres. On a look-through basis, the Company's ownership in the timber fund business equates to approximately 17,000 acres.

How the Company Makes MoneyRayonier generates revenue through several key streams, primarily centered around its timberland holdings. The company earns income by selling timber directly from its forests, either through lump-sum contracts or pay-as-cut agreements. Additionally, Rayonier leases its land for recreational use and other purposes, such as hunting and conservation. The company also derives earnings from its real estate operations, which involve selling parcels of land for development or conservation. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in both domestic and international markets further enhance its revenue potential, allowing Rayonier to capitalize on global demand for wood and forest products.

Rayonier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rayonier's financial performance reflects strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by low leverage and solid return on equity. However, cash flow challenges and a slight decline in equity ratio present some risks.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Rayonier demonstrates strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, evident from a 19.5% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains solid profitability, with a gross profit margin of 37.9% and a net profit margin of 28.4% in 2024. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remained flat at 31.9%, indicating stable operational efficiency. Continued revenue growth combined with robust margins contributes to a high score.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Rayonier reveals a healthy equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 in 2024, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) improved to 20.3% in 2024, reflecting effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio decreased slightly to 50.9%, suggesting a minor decrease in the proportion of equity financing. The company's low debt levels and improved ROE are positive, though the declining equity ratio is a concern.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Rayonier's cash flow statement shows challenges, with negative free cash flow reported in 2024 due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, creating uncertainty in operating cash efficiency. Despite this, the company previously demonstrated positive free cash flow, indicating potential for recovery.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.26B	1.06B	909.10M	1.11B	859.20M
	Gross Profit
478.16M	296.66M	220.80M	313.50M	146.70M
	EBIT
402.47M	211.28M	165.80M	269.80M	74.40M
	EBITDA
553.20M	378.19M	303.84M	411.31M	275.73M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
359.15M	173.49M	107.08M	210.50M	37.08M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
323.16M	207.70M	114.30M	362.20M	84.60M
	Total Assets
3.47B	3.65B	3.79B	3.64B	3.73B
	Total Debt
95.74M	1.45B	1.60B	1.46B	1.46B
	Net Debt
-227.42M	1.25B	1.49B	1.10B	1.38B
	Total Liabilities
1.64B	1.69B	1.80B	1.69B	1.74B
	Stockholders Equity
1.77B	1.86B	1.87B	1.77B	1.47B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
159.06M	202.87M	-264.10M	70.00M	113.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
261.59M	298.38M	269.20M	325.10M	204.20M
	Investing Cash Flow
354.01M	124.09M	-516.40M	-26.30M	-213.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-479.36M	-328.87M	-4.60M	-16.30M	27.00M

Rayonier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price23.59

Price Trends

50DMA

26.17

Negative

100DMA

26.22

Negative

200DMA

27.29

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.59

Positive

RSI

31.83

Neutral

STOCH

21.14

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.71, below the 50-day MA of 26.17, and below the 200-day MA of 27.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RYN.

Rayonier Risk Analysis

Rayonier disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rayonier reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rayonier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RYN	64 Neutral	$3.82B	10.22	19.79%	4.61%	19.50%	106.12%
PCH	62 Neutral	$3.01B	63.06	2.31%	4.69%	10.86%	6.72%
WY	61 Neutral	$18.79B	51.70	3.71%	3.13%	-6.56%	-54.29%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.74B	11.40	0.08%	8531.66%	5.98%	-15.71%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RYN

Rayonier

23.59

-3.08

-11.55%

PCH

PotlatchDeltic

38.17

-1.57

-3.95%

Weyerhaeuser

25.82

-4.38

-14.50%

Rayonier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -3.56%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a challenging first quarter with significant headwinds in the Southern Timber segment and overall financial performance. However, the strategic sale of the New Zealand business and focused capital returns signal a positive long-term outlook. Despite current challenges, there is optimism for improvement in the second half of the year.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Pending Sale of New Zealand Business

Rayonier announced an agreement to sell its New Zealand joint venture interest to the Rohatyn Group for $710 million. This move aligns with the company's strategy to focus on core U.S. operations and is expected to close in 2025.

Shareholder Returns Strategy

Rayonier plans to use at least 50% of the New Zealand sale proceeds to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a special dividend of $1 to $1.4 per share, similar to their 2024 dividend.

Pacific Northwest Timber Performance

The Pacific Northwest Timber segment reported an adjusted EBITDA increase to $6 million, despite an 18% decrease in harvest volumes, due to higher net stumpage realizations and lower costs.

Real Estate Segment Prospects

Despite a slow start, the Real Estate segment is expected to have an active second half of 2025 with strong buyer interest and a robust transaction pipeline.

Negative Updates

Southern Timber Segment Challenges

Adjusted EBITDA in the Southern Timber segment was down due to a 21% decline in harvest volumes and a 19% drop in weighted average net stumpage realizations, impacted by hurricane salvage volumes and market conditions.

First Quarter Financial Decline

Rayonier reported a 39% decline in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year to $27 million, with a pro forma net loss of $3 million or $0.02 per share, due to lower results in the Southern Timber and Real Estate segments.

Real Estate Segment Adjusted EBITDA Decline

The Real Estate segment's adjusted EBITDA was $2 million, down $3 million from the prior year, due to fewer acres sold, although at higher average prices.

Company Guidance

During Rayonier's First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several financial metrics and strategic actions. The sale of their New Zealand joint venture for $710 million is expected to close by the end of 2025, with at least 50% of the proceeds intended to reduce leverage and return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a special dividend of $1 to $1.4 per share. Despite a challenging start to the year, Rayonier maintains a full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $215 million to $235 million, excluding New Zealand operations. In the first quarter, Rayonier reported an adjusted EBITDA of $27 million, with a pro forma net loss of $3 million or $0.02 per share. The Southern Timber segment faced a 39% decline in adjusted EBITDA due to a 21% drop in harvest volumes and a 19% decrease in stumpage realizations, while the Pacific Northwest segment saw a rise in adjusted EBITDA to $6 million. The Real Estate segment generated $2 million in adjusted EBITDA, with future activity expected to be concentrated in the latter half of the year. Rayonier's net debt to enterprise value stood at 16%, and they had $216 million in cash at the quarter's end. The company is optimistic about improving conditions in the second half of the year, driven by expected increases in timber prices and real estate activities.

Rayonier Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Rayonier Sells New Zealand Stake for $710 Million

Positive

Mar 10, 2025

On March 9, 2025, Rayonier announced a $710 million agreement to sell its 77% interest in its New Zealand joint venture to Taurus Forest Holdings Limited, managed by The Rohatyn Group. This transaction aligns with Rayonier’s strategy to focus on U.S. operations, reduce leverage, and enhance shareholder value, while TRG will leverage its expertise to drive growth in the New Zealand forestry business.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.