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Rayonier
(NYSE:RYN)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$24.50
â–²(13.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
RYN scores well overall primarily due to strong cash flow generation and improving leverage, supported by a favorable valuation profile (low P/E and high dividend yield). The earnings call reinforced positive merger-driven operating momentum and disciplined capital returns, though risks around pulpwood markets, logistics, and policy uncertainty remain. Technicals are mildly supportive but not strongly bullish, while the biggest constraint on the score is still weak/volatile profitability and earnings quality in the most recent period.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Rayonier's TTM operating cash flow (~$348M) and free cash flow (~$264M, +28.7% YoY) provide durable internal financing for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction and timberland reinvestment. For a timberland REIT, persistent positive FCF supports capital returns and resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak, volatile profitability and earnings quality
TTM net margin around 0.3% and prior-year net income spikes that look non-repeatable indicate weak and volatile earnings quality. For a capital-intensive REIT, inconsistent profitability undermines durable return-on-capital, increases reliance on one-off gains, and complicates confident long-term distribution coverage and reinvestment planning.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Rayonier's TTM operating cash flow (~$348M) and free cash flow (~$264M, +28.7% YoY) provide durable internal financing for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction and timberland reinvestment. For a timberland REIT, persistent positive FCF supports capital returns and resilience through commodity cycles.
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Rayonier (RYN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.59B
Dividend Yield11.32%
Average Volume (3M)2.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-42.41%
EPS Growth-82.14%
CountryUS
Employees285
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.52
Shares Outstanding300,747,220
10 Day Avg. Volume2,238,460
30 Day Avg. Volume2,416,862
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.52
Price to Sales (P/S)6.92
P/FCF Ratio16.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.75Price Target Upside10.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
Rayonier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rayonier Inc. is a land resources real estate investment trust (REIT) with a portfolio comprising over four million acres in the U.S. South and U.S. Northwest. The company is focused on managing its timberlands on a sustainable basis while optimiz...
How the Company Makes Money
Rayonier generates revenue primarily from its timber and land-based real estate activities. A core revenue stream is timber harvest and log/wood fiber sales from its managed timberlands; the company sells timber products to customers such as mills...
Rayonier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial trajectory driven by the PotlatchDeltic merger, strong segment-level EBITDA improvements (notably Southern and Northwest Timber and Wood Products), sizable real estate results and active capital returns. Management demonstrated disciplined balance sheet management and executed a tax-efficient timberland exchange. Key near-term challenges include pulpwood market weakness, transportation constraints, wildfire-related losses, policy uncertainty on Canadian imports, and the long lead times/uncertainty for converting renewable energy and data-center land options. Overall, the positive operational momentum and improved liquidity/returns outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Successful Merger Integration and HQ Move
Merger with PotlatchDeltic closed in late January; company reports significant progress on integration, organizational optimization, and on track to achieve run-rate synergies. Signed lease for new corporate headquarters in Atlanta opening early 2027.
Negative Updates
Modest GAAP Earnings and Pro Forma Adjustments
GAAP Q2 earnings were modest at $19M ($0.06/share); pro forma adjustments (largely merger-related) raised adjusted net income to $32M ($0.10/share), highlighting one-time/transaction-related impacts.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Merger Integration and HQ Move
Merger with PotlatchDeltic closed in late January; company reports significant progress on integration, organizational optimization, and on track to achieve run-rate synergies. Signed lease for new corporate headquarters in Atlanta opening early 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated detailed 2026 guidance: Southern Timber harvest 12.2–12.5 million tons for the year (Q3 3.1–3.3M tons) with regional sawtimber/pulpwood prices expected relatively stable in Q3 (combined Southern pine prices projected lower than prior stand‑alone Rayonier due to geographic mix); Northwest Timber harvest 2.0–2.2M tons for the year (Q3 ≈600k tons) with sawtimber prices modestly higher in Q3; Wood Products shipments of ~1.1 billion board feet (11 months of contribution) with Q3 shipments ~320–330M board feet and July quarter‑to‑date lumber prices modestly above Q2’s $505/MBF; Real Estate adjusted EBITDA expected $25–35M in Q3 and $180–200M for the full year. Management said timber guidance includes the RMS land exchange (Washington sale treated as a large disposition with no EBITDA impact) and also highlighted liquidity/capital metrics: CAD $177M YTD, cash $412M, debt ≈$1.9B, net debt-to-enterprise value 18%, and share repurchases of 4.9M shares for $103M YTD (3.5M shares/ $72M in Q2) with $126M remaining authorization.Rayonier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 968.33M | 484.50M | 1.26B | 1.06B | 909.07M | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 173.71M | 157.30M | 478.16M | 294.36M | 220.79M | 313.48M |
| EBITDA | 327.38M | 216.50M | 553.20M | 390.19M | 315.73M | 425.78M |
| Net Income | 75.79M | 474.40M | 359.15M | 173.49M | 107.08M | 152.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.36B | 3.40B | 3.47B | 3.65B | 3.79B | 3.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 411.80M | 842.90M | 323.16M | 207.70M | 114.25M | 362.17M |
| Total Debt | 1.86B | 1.07B | 1.19B | 1.45B | 1.60B | 1.46B |
| Total Liabilities | -3.85B | 1.15B | 1.64B | 1.69B | 1.80B | 1.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.21B | 2.21B | 1.77B | 1.86B | 1.87B | 1.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 264.09M | 206.70M | 159.06M | 202.87M | -264.10M | 70.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 347.80M | 256.70M | 261.59M | 298.38M | 269.20M | 325.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -165.52M | 615.10M | 354.01M | 124.09M | -516.40M | -26.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -814.10M | -372.90M | -479.36M | -328.87M | -4.60M | -16.30M |
Rayonier Technical Analysis
Neutral
21.58
Price Trends
21.30
Positive
20.86
Positive
21.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
48.36
Neutral
55.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.66, above the 50-day MA of 21.30, and above the 200-day MA of 21.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RYN.
Rayonier Risk Analysis
Rayonier disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rayonier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rayonier Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
RYN
Rayonier
21.43
-1.77
-7.62%
WY
Weyerhaeuser
25.45
0.62
2.49%
Rayonier Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Rayonier Appoints Ryan Daniels to Lead Wood Products
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Rayonier Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had approved the appointment of Ryan M. Daniels as Senior Vice President, Wood Products, effective immediately, following his interim tenure in the role since March 20, 2026. Da...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Rayonier Shareholders Endorse Board, Pay and Auditor Slate
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 14, 2026, Rayonier Inc. reported that investors approved all ten director nominees to serve on the board until the 2027 annual meeting, reflecting broad support for the company’s current...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.