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Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
NYSE:WY
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Weyerhaeuser
(NYSE:WY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
â–¼(-0.12% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker current-cycle profitability and cash conversion, plus bearish technical momentum. A solid balance sheet, stable-to-improving guidance with strong Strategic Land Solutions/Climate Solutions execution, and a moderate dividend provide partial support, but high P/E and near-term wood-products weakness keep overall risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A sizable equity cushion and historically moderate leverage provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. This supports capital recycling, dividends and opportunistic investments, enabling the company to fund growth initiatives and weather timber and housing downturns without forcing distressed asset sales.
Climate & Strategic Land growth
Rapid Climate Solutions expansion diversifies revenue away from cyclical lumber markets into recurring carbon-credit and land-based products. The business has demonstrated scalable margins and establishes multi-year, structural tailwinds tied to voluntary carbon markets and decarbonization policy, supporting long-term EBITDA growth.
Capital allocation & portfolio optimization
Consistent buybacks, dividend increases and timberland monetizations show disciplined capital allocation and active portfolio optimization. Recycling non-core acreage into shareholder returns and targeted reinvestment improves long-term ROIC and aligns assets to higher-return growth priorities.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash generation
Softer operating cash flow and materially reduced free cash flow diminish internal funding for capex, growth projects and shareholder distributions. Over multiple quarters this constrains flexibility, forces reliance on recycling or external financing, and raises execution risk for multi‑year initiatives.
Wood-products cyclicality & losses
Wood-products profitability is tightly linked to housing and renovation cycles; sustained weak lumber/OSB pricing and elevated mill inventories can depress margins for extended periods. Persistent manufacturing losses reduce segment cash contribution and can require capacity adjustments that lower long-term returns.
Elevated net leverage & near-term cash demands
Higher net leverage amid cyclical earnings reduces balance-sheet resilience. Combined with large near-term cash needs (pension contributions and planned $300M EWP facility capex), this elevates refinancing and liquidity risk and may limit the pace of strategic investments or shareholder returns if markets remain weak.
Weyerhaeuser (WY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.68B
Dividend Yield3.57%
Average Volume (3M)6.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)54.8
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-1.64%
EPS Growth-37.58%
CountryUS
Employees9,400
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding720,665,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,909,722
30 Day Avg. Volume6,517,979
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.81
Price to Sales (P/S)2.47
P/FCF Ratio194.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside22.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.11B
Weyerhaeuser Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWeyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. We own or control approximately 11 million acres of timberlands in the U.S. and manage additional timberlands under long-term licenses in Canada. We manage these timberlands on a sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized forestry standards. We are also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America. Our company is a real estate investment trust. In 2020, we generated $7.5 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,400 people who serve customers worldwide. We are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index. Our common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY.
How the Company Makes MoneyWeyerhaeuser generates revenue primarily through the sale of timber and wood products. The Timberland segment earns revenue by managing and harvesting timber for sale to third-party customers or through its own Wood Products segment. The Wood Products segment, in turn, manufactures and sells lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), engineered wood products, and other related goods. Key revenue streams include direct sales to construction companies, wholesalers, and retailers, along with long-term supply agreements with significant partners in the construction industry. The company also benefits from rising demand in the housing market, economic growth, and strategic partnerships that enhance its distribution capabilities, contributing to its overall earnings.
Weyerhaeuser Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Acres Sold
Tracks the number of acres sold, offering insight into land management strategy and potential capital gains from real estate transactions.
Tracks the number of acres sold, offering insight into land management strategy and potential capital gains from real estate transactions.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWeyerhaeuser Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced notable strategic and operational achievements—delivery on multiyear targets, strong Climate Solutions growth (+42% YoY), record real estate pricing, $599 million of timberland divestiture proceeds announced, $766 million returned to shareholders, and launched large-scale growth initiatives (biocarbon partnership, TimberStrand, $1.5 billion 2030 EBITDA target)—against significant near-term operating headwinds. Those headwinds include materially weak lumber and OSB markets (Q4 Wood Products loss of $78M; lumber EBITDA down $57M), sequential timberlands pressure in the West, elevated mill inventories, a $111M pension settlement special charge and $200M cash pension contribution, and higher net leverage (~5x). Overall, strategic positioning and long-term growth initiatives are strong, but near-term financial and market challenges temper the outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Financial Performance and Adjusted EBITDA
Full-year 2025 GAAP earnings of $324 million ($0.45 per diluted share); excluding special items, earnings were $143 million ($0.20 per diluted share). Full-year adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.0 billion.
Fourth Quarter Results and Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 2025 GAAP earnings of $74 million ($0.10 per diluted share) on net sales of $1.5 billion; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $140 million. Excluding special items, Q4 reported a loss of $67 million ($0.09 per diluted share).
Timberlands Portfolio Optimization and Proceeds
Completed two divestitures of non-core timberlands (Oregon, Georgia, Alabama) for $406 million and entered agreement to divest ~108,000 acres in Virginia for $193 million (expected close next month), demonstrating active portfolio optimization and capital recycling (total announced proceeds $599 million).
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
Returned $766 million of cash to shareholders in 2025 (including $160 million of share repurchases), increased base dividend by 5%, completed prior $1 billion repurchase program and announced a new $1 billion authorization.
Real Estate & Strategic Land Solutions Outperformance
Q4 Real Estate & ENR contributed $84 million to earnings with adjusted EBITDA of $95 million (slight QoQ increase and ~$19 million above Q4 guidance). Average price per real estate sale hit a record of over $8,200 per acre; full-year adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $411 million, $61 million above initial outlook.
Climate Solutions Growth (Strong YoY Increase)
Full-year adjusted EBITDA for Climate Solutions was $119 million, a 42% increase vs. 2024; generated ~630,000 credits in 2025 and sold 120,000 credits in the voluntary market. Exceeded the $100 million annual EBITDA multiyear target and set a new $250 million EBITDA by 2030 target.
Strategic Growth Initiatives Launched
Launched an ambitious company-wide growth strategy through 2030 including a partnership with Aymium to produce up to 1.5 million tons of biocarbon annually by 2030 (first facility adjacent to McComb, MS) and a target to deliver $1.5 billion of incremental adjusted EBITDA by 2030 vs. 2024 base.
Operational Actions and Investments
Broke ground on a new TimberStrand facility in Arkansas and captured operational excellence improvements; continued disciplined OpEx and mill investments to reduce costs and improve recovery.
Timberlands Segment Contribution and Outlook
Q4 Timberlands (excluding special items) contributed $50 million to earnings with adjusted EBITDA of $114 million. Management expects Timberlands Q1 earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to Q4 and company-wide 2026 fee harvest volumes of ~35.5 million tons.
Pension Liability Management Progress
Completed purchase of a group annuity contract transferring ~$455 million of U.S. pension liabilities, funded with ~$440 million of plan assets; since 2018 gross pension obligations decreased roughly $5 billion to $1.9 billion and funded status improved by >$1 billion.
Negative Updates
Wood Products Quarterly Losses
Wood Products reported a $78 million loss in Q4 and adjusted EBITDA loss of $20 million, reflecting extremely challenging lumber and OSB markets with prices near historic lows on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Lumber Production and Realizations Decline
Lumber adjusted EBITDA was a $57 million loss in Q4; production volumes decreased 14% sequentially and average sales realizations decreased 3% QoQ, driven by softer demand and elected production moderation.
OSB Pricing Pressure
OSB adjusted EBITDA was a $10 million loss in Q4; average sales realizations decreased 6% QoQ reflecting seasonal reduction in residential construction activity.
Timberlands Sequential EBITDA Weakness in West
Timberlands adjusted EBITDA decreased by $34 million vs. Q3 to $114 million, largely due to lower sales volumes and realizations in Western markets where ample supply and elevated mill inventories pressured domestic log pricing.
Pension-Related Special Charges and Cash Contribution
A noncash $111 million after-tax settlement charge was recorded related to the pension annuity transaction and management made a $200 million voluntary cash contribution to the plan, reducing reported cash from operations (would be $762 million excl. the $200 million contribution vs. reported $562 million).
Elevated Net Leverage and Balance Sheet Considerations
Net leverage rose to about 5x (discussed on the call), with year-end cash just under $500 million and total debt of $5.6 billion—management emphasized the 3.5x mid-cycle target but noted leverage is cyclically higher amid weak commodity pricing.
Weak Housing and Repair & Remodel Demand
Housing activity was lackluster in 2025 with total starts expected near ~1.3 million and single-family starts well below 1.0 million; repair & remodel activity decreased, weighing on lumber and EWP demand near term.
China Export Demand Limited Near Term
Although the U.S. log import ban into China was lifted in November and shipments resumed (one vessel delivered in Q4, one expected in Q1), management expects limited shipments near term due to weakness in the Chinese real estate sector and seasonal slowdowns.
Channel and Mill Inventories Elevated
Mills carried elevated log inventories in several regions, which moderated log pricing and contributed to softer realizations; this dynamic can delay price recovery until inventories normalize or demand strengthens.
Large Project and CapEx Requirements
Planned construction of the new EWP (TimberStrand) facility (Monticello/Arkansas) will require ~ $300 million of capital in 2026 (excluded from adjusted FAD calculations), representing a material near-term cash outlay that will compete with other allocation priorities.
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 Timberlands earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to Q4 2025 (Timberlands Q4: $50M earnings; $114M adjusted EBITDA) and reiterated full‑year fee harvest volumes of ~35.5 million tons (South slightly higher, West comparable, North slightly lower); Strategic Land Solutions (Real Estate/Natural Resources/Climate Solutions) is expected to generate ~ $425M of adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 (basis on real estate sales 25–35%), with Q1 segment earnings ~ $75M higher than Q4 and Q1 adjusted EBITDA ~ $90M higher (including a closed Florida conservation easement that produced ~ $94M of proceeds on ~61,000 acres). For Wood Products, excluding realization moves management expects Q1 earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly higher than Q4 (lumber: higher production/sales, lower unit costs, slightly lower log costs; OSB: slightly higher volumes, slightly lower unit costs, slightly higher fiber costs; EWP: stable volumes, slightly lower realizations; Distribution: higher adjusted EBITDA). Corporate guidance included FY2026 interest expense ≈ $255M, effective tax rate 8–12% before special items, noncash pension/post‑employment expense ≈ $60M, required other plan cash payments ≈ $20M, programmatic CapEx $400–450M (excludes Monticello) and ~ $300M of CapEx for the new Arkansas EWP facility in 2026.Weyerhaeuser Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials reflect a cyclical downswing: profitability and cash generation have weakened materially versus 2021–2022, with modest TTM margins and weaker cash conversion (operating cash flow below net income and declining free cash flow). The balance sheet remains a relative strength with substantial equity and manageable leverage, but near-term earnings quality and flexibility are constrained.Income Statement
Profitability has compressed meaningfully from the 2021–2022 peak. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue declined (-2.345%) and margins are modest (gross margin ~17.1%, net margin ~4.6%) versus much stronger levels in 2021–2022. While the business remains profitable, the trend shows weaker pricing/power and/or higher costs, with earnings down materially from prior years—raising cyclicality risk and reducing near-term earnings quality.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet appears solid with a large equity base (TTM equity ~$9.4B vs. assets ~$16.6B) and moderate leverage (debt-to-equity around ~0.5–0.6 over time). Returns on equity have cooled sharply in TTM (~3.5%) compared with prior years, reflecting lower earnings rather than balance-sheet stress. Overall, leverage looks manageable, but profitability-driven returns are currently a weak point.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened alongside earnings. TTM operating cash flow (~$562M) is below net income (coverage ~0.68x), and free cash flow (~$232M) is only about one-third of net income, suggesting softer cash conversion in the most recent period. Free cash flow is also down year over year (TTM growth -22.4%), which reduces flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment compared with the stronger 2021–2022 cash profile.46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.91B | 7.12B | 7.67B | 10.18B | 10.20B |
| Gross Profit | 516.00M | 1.31B | 1.68B | 3.62B | 4.10B |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 1.20B | 1.72B | 3.06B | 4.11B |
| Net Income | 324.00M | 396.00M | 839.00M | 1.88B | 2.61B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.61B | 16.54B | 16.98B | 17.34B | 17.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 464.00M | 684.00M | 1.16B | 1.58B | 1.88B |
| Total Debt | 5.57B | 5.11B | 5.09B | 5.08B | 5.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.19B | 6.82B | 6.75B | 6.59B | 6.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.43B | 9.72B | 10.24B | 10.75B | 10.77B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 88.00M | 341.00M | 753.00M | 2.07B | 2.57B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 562.00M | 1.01B | 1.43B | 2.83B | 3.16B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -475.00M | -636.00M | -508.00M | -759.00M | -325.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -290.00M | -852.00M | -1.34B | -2.49B | -1.33B |
Weyerhaeuser Technical Analysis
Negative
24.53
Price Trends
25.39
Negative
24.06
Positive
24.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
33.90
Neutral
12.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.01, below the 50-day MA of 25.39, and below the 200-day MA of 24.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WY.
Weyerhaeuser Risk Analysis
Weyerhaeuser disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Weyerhaeuser reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Weyerhaeuser Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
WY
Weyerhaeuser
24.53
-5.85
-19.26%
RYN
Rayonier
21.49
-3.03
-12.37%
Weyerhaeuser Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Weyerhaeuser Unveils Strategic Land Solutions Growth Plan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Weyerhaeuser released an investor presentation outlining its strategy, portfolio and recent performance, including a new segment name, Strategic Land Solutions, effective from the first quarter of 2026. The materials highlight the company’s integrated model across timberlands, wood products and land-based climate and real estate opportunities designed to capture value from every acre.
The presentation details that between 2022 and 2025 Weyerhaeuser divested about $850 million of non-core timberlands, executed more than $1.2 billion of strategic acquisitions and grew annual adjusted EBITDA from climate solutions to $119 million by 2025. The company reported approximately $210 million in operational excellence gains during 2022–2025, achieved top adjusted EBITDA margins versus key North American peers in all manufacturing businesses, and returned over $6 billion to shareholders from 2021–2025 while steadily raising its base dividend.
Management also laid out an accelerated growth plan targeting $1.5 billion of incremental adjusted EBITDA by 2030 versus a 2024 baseline, supported by $1 billion of identified, largely controllable growth initiatives across timberlands, Strategic Land Solutions and wood products. These initiatives span increased harvest, export and product pricing uplift, expanded distribution and engineered wood capacity, real estate development, and a growing slate of climate solutions and AI-driven operational improvements, positioning Weyerhaeuser to benefit from underbuilt U.S. housing, rising mass timber adoption and global fiber and carbon demand.
The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Weyerhaeuser Updates Executive Equity Incentive Award Terms
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Weyerhaeuser’s board-level Compensation Committee approved new standard terms and conditions for future performance share unit and restricted stock unit awards to be granted to executive officers under the company’s 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan. The updated equity award frameworks are designed to govern how future executive incentives are structured and administered, signaling ongoing refinement of Weyerhaeuser’s executive compensation practices and potentially aligning leadership incentives more closely with long-term shareholder and company performance outcomes.
The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Weyerhaeuser Unveils 2025 Investor Day Strategy and Outlook
Positive
Dec 18, 2025
On December 18, 2025, Weyerhaeuser posted new investor presentation materials outlining its 2025 Investor Day agenda, which include updated fourth-quarter pricing information and a strategic roadmap built around its integrated timber, wood products and natural resources portfolio. The materials emphasize the company’s track record of meeting aggressive performance targets, highlight its intention to leverage distinct competitive advantages and integrated operations to drive more than $100 million in annual uplift and incremental Adjusted EBITDA growth by 2030, and underscore its positioning for industry-leading total shareholder returns, signaling a continued focus on disciplined capital allocation and long-term value creation for investors.
The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Weyerhaeuser Highlights Strategic Growth at Investor Day
Positive
Dec 11, 2025
On December 11, 2025, Weyerhaeuser Company held its 2025 Investor Day, highlighting its strategic growth plans through 2030. The company emphasized its strong track record of achieving targets and its unique competitive advantages in the timberlands sector. Weyerhaeuser aims to accelerate growth by leveraging its integrated portfolio to generate significant cash flow and improve value across business cycles. The company also announced a new segment name for its Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources division, effective Q1 2026, and discussed its plans to enhance cash flows through strategic acquisitions and divestitures.
The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.