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National Health Investors (NHI)
NYSE:NHI

National Health Investors (NHI) AI Stock Analysis

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National Health Investors

(NYSE:NHI)

77Outperform
National Health Investors scores well due to its robust financial performance, technical momentum, and positive earnings outlook. The recent governance changes further align with strategic goals, although caution is warranted due to revenue challenges and market conditions. The stock remains a solid choice for investors seeking stability and income.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
4Q24 FAD showed a 5.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations with solid SHOP performance.
Growth Potential
NHI's pipeline was expanded and reloaded, showing growth potential.
Stock Reaction
Shares are expected to react positively due to SHOP and external growth prospects.
Negative Factors
Financial Impact
The SLM issue negatively impacted FFO, cutting it below expectations.
Occupancy Issues
Bickford's occupancy experienced a modest deterioration.
Revenue Impact
NHI will not receive any rent from SLM in 4Q and will also incur marginally higher legal/transition costs.

National Health Investors (NHI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

National Health Investors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIncorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc. (NYSE: NHI) is a real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint-venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical investments. NHI's portfolio consists of independent, assisted and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, skilled nursing facilities, medical office buildings and specialty hospitals.
How the Company Makes MoneyNHI generates revenue primarily through lease agreements with healthcare operators who manage the properties in its portfolio. These leases are typically structured as triple-net leases, where the tenant is responsible for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, providing a stable and predictable cash flow for NHI. The company's income is primarily derived from rental income paid by its tenants, which include senior living communities, skilled nursing facilities, and medical office buildings. Additionally, NHI may earn income from mortgage interest and fees associated with the financing of healthcare facilities. Strategic partnerships with reputable operators and a focus on high-demand healthcare sectors contribute significantly to its profitability.

National Health Investors Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Health Investors demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet. The reduction in debt and strong cash flow management are positive indicators, though declining revenues pose a challenge. Overall, the company maintains a robust financial position, suitable for sustaining operations and strategic investments.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company's gross profit margin remains robust with a consistent EBIT margin reflecting efficient operations. However, there is a noticeable decline in total revenue from the previous year, impacting the revenue growth rate negatively. The net profit margin is strong, indicating efficient cost management.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet highlights a healthy equity ratio, signifying strong financial stability. With zero debt in the most recent period, the company has significantly reduced its leverage, improving its debt-to-equity ratio. Return on equity remains satisfactory, showcasing solid shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive, indicating strong cash-generating ability relative to profits. Free cash flow remains positive, ensuring liquidity. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth suggest variability in cash management strategies.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
257.05M319.83M278.19M298.71M332.81M
Gross Profit
257.05M308.32M268.41M287.08M323.16M
EBIT
214.80M178.79M81.11M132.19M220.80M
EBITDA
264.16M259.94M151.99M212.99M303.95M
Net Income Common Stockholders
137.87M135.65M23.06M62.19M135.37M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
24.29M22.35M19.29M37.41M43.34M
Total Assets
2.61B2.49B2.51B2.84B3.12B
Total Debt
1.15B1.14B1.15B1.25B1.51B
Net Debt
1.12B1.11B1.13B1.21B1.47B
Total Liabilities
1.23B1.21B1.22B1.32B1.60B
Stockholders Equity
1.37B1.25B1.27B1.51B1.51B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
207.77M180.71M180.71M210.79M218.29M
Operating Cash Flow
207.77M184.45M185.34M210.86M232.15M
Investing Cash Flow
-192.31M-11.63M197.94M185.28M-89.71M
Financing Cash Flow
-13.57M-169.72M-401.25M-402.99M-111.76M

National Health Investors Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price75.87
Price Trends
50DMA
73.13
Positive
100DMA
70.61
Positive
200DMA
73.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.85
Negative
RSI
58.91
Neutral
STOCH
58.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 75.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.95, above the 50-day MA of 73.13, and above the 200-day MA of 73.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NHI.

National Health Investors Risk Analysis

National Health Investors disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Health Investors reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Health Investors Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$5.46B36.195.76%4.14%36.06%61.55%
NHNHI
77
Outperform
$3.52B24.1110.53%4.76%4.88%0.41%
LTLTC
74
Outperform
$1.56B16.689.81%6.38%6.54%-4.13%
AHAHR
72
Outperform
$5.11B-2.14%3.14%11.17%
63
Neutral
$4.19B32.824.57%6.72%7.22%809.92%
60
Neutral
$2.78B11.390.16%8531.54%5.92%-14.67%
MPMPW
49
Neutral
$3.18B-38.69%7.59%14.19%-331.18%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NHI
National Health Investors
75.87
14.27
23.17%
LTC
LTC Properties
35.25
3.88
12.37%
SBRA
Sabra Healthcare REIT
17.42
4.10
30.78%
MPW
Medical Properties
5.24
0.74
16.44%
CTRE
CareTrust REIT
28.54
4.64
19.41%
AHR
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
32.55
19.41
147.72%

National Health Investors Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 7.72%|
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant growth in key financial metrics and a strong investment pipeline. However, challenges in specific property performances and anticipated lower deferred rent collections were notable concerns.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Rent and NOI Growth
Cash rent increased by nearly 9% year over year, and NOI grew by 12.5% due to improved occupancy and margin improvement.
Significant Investments and Decreased Leverage
Investments of over $150 million were announced at an initial yield of 8.5%, and balance sheet leverage decreased to 4.1 times from 4.4 times in Q3.
Record Growth in Annual Metrics
Growth achieved in annual NAREIT FFO, normalized FFO, and FAD for the first time since 2020, exceeding the high end of original guidance.
Successful Capital Allocation
Over $235 million was announced at an average yield of 8.6%, marking the most active year since 2019.
High Confidence in Investment Pipeline
Closed a $21.2 million sale-leaseback in January, with $152.3 million under signed LOIs, and an active pipeline of approximately $190 million.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Guidance includes $225 million of incremental investments and expectations for 12% to 15% NOI growth in 2025.
Negative Updates
Underperformance of Discovery Senior Living Properties
The properties did not perform as expected, with potential need to transition to another operator.
Deferred Rent Collection Concerns
2025 guidance includes only $4 million in deferred rent collection, down from $11 million in 2024, due to fewer extraordinary collections expected.
Interest Rate Environment Challenges
The interest rate environment has increased the cost of capital, affecting the ability to capitalize on investment opportunities.
Company Guidance
During the National Health Investors fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, Eric Mendelsohn, CEO, highlighted several key metrics that showcased the company's strong performance. The fourth quarter saw a nearly 9% year-over-year increase in cash rent, contributing to a 12.5% growth in net operating income (NOI). Investments exceeding $150 million were announced, yielding an initial return of 8.5%, and the company's leverage ratio decreased to 4.1 times from 4.4 times in the prior quarter. For the full year 2024, Bickford's cash rental income grew by approximately 17%, and shop NOI increased by about 32%, surpassing the high end of their guidance. Looking forward to 2025, the company anticipates 12% to 15% NOI growth, supported by an expected $225 million in incremental investments at an average yield of 8.1%. Furthermore, National Health Investors plans to strategically increase revenue per available room (RevPAR) while maintaining a robust balance sheet, positioning the company for continued growth.

National Health Investors Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
National Health Investors Releases Q4 2024 Financial Update
Neutral
Feb 25, 2025

National Health Investors has released its Supplemental Information for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. This release provides stakeholders with updated financial data and insights into the company’s performance during the specified period, which may impact its operational strategies and market positioning.

Business Operations and Strategy
National Health Investors Issues Strategic Investor Update
Neutral
Feb 25, 2025

On February 25, 2025, National Health Investors, Inc. issued an investor update available on their website. This update highlights the company’s strategic focus on maintaining its real estate investment trust status and addressing various operational risks, including those related to tenant financial health, regulatory changes, and environmental factors. The announcement underscores the company’s commitment to navigating potential challenges in the senior housing and medical investment sectors, emphasizing the importance of strategic management and risk mitigation for future growth.

Executive/Board Changes
National Health Investors Announces Board Member Resignation
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

On February 7, 2025, National Health Investors, Inc. announced the resignation of Robert Webb from its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Webb, who has been a part of the board since its inception in 1991, played a pivotal role in the company’s growth to over $3.0 billion in investments across various healthcare real estate properties. His departure marks the end of a significant era of leadership for NHI, and the company acknowledges his invaluable contributions to its development.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.