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LTC Properties (LTC)
NYSE:LTC
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LTC Properties
(NYSE:LTC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$43.00
â–²(8.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and constructive forward guidance around the SHOP growth pivot and liquidity, supported by bullish technical trend signals. Offsetting these positives are weakened cash-flow-to-debt coverage and a stretched P/E multiple, which raise balance-sheet and valuation risk if execution falls short.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent multi-year revenue acceleration (2023→2025) indicates demand resilience and successful portfolio growth initiatives. Durable top-line expansion supports recurring rent and interest income, improves coverage of fixed costs and underpins capacity to fund SHOP acquisitions over the next 2–6 months.
High Profitability
Very high gross margins and healthy net margins imply strong earnings conversion in LTC's lease-and-loan REIT model. A robust margin profile helps sustain distributions, absorbs operating volatility, and provides internal cash to support maintenance capex and selective accretive SHOP investments.
Strengthened Liquidity
Sizeable, committed liquidity and an enlarged credit facility materially improve financial flexibility. This reduces near-term refinancing risk, funds the guided SHOP acquisition program, and enables portfolio de‑risking moves (Prestige payoff, dispositions) without immediate pressure on operating cash flow.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash-Flow Coverage
A decline in cash-flow-to-debt coverage to ~0.21 indicates a thinner cash buffer relative to debt stock. This reduces the company's ability to absorb earnings or interest-rate shocks and limits margin for error as LTC scales SHOP, increasing refinancing and payout vulnerability if cash flow softens.
Operator Concentration Risk
Significant exposure to a single operator (Prestige) created material operational and reimbursement risk historically. Even with a planned payoff, past concentration demonstrates counterparty and state-reimbursement sensitivity that can cause outsized earnings volatility and credit/collection stress in stressed environments.
Acquisition Market Pressure
A crowded acquisition market raises the risk LTC must pay higher prices to secure SHOP assets, compressing initial yields and lowering unlevered IRRs. For a growth pivot reliant on accretive buys, persistent pricing pressure would materially erode the durability of projected NOI and return assumptions.
LTC Properties (LTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.86B
Dividend Yield6.7%
Average Volume (3M)388.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth11.89%
EPS Growth-68.41%
CountryUS
Employees23
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.11
Shares Outstanding48,509,760
10 Day Avg. Volume330,027
30 Day Avg. Volume388,816
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)6.05
P/FCF Ratio11.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.00Price Target Upside-6.57% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
LTC Properties Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLTC is a real estate investment trust (REIT) investing in seniors housing and health care properties primarily through sale-leasebacks, mortgage financing, joint-ventures and structured finance solutions including preferred equity and mezzanine lending. LTC holds 181 investments in 27 states with 29 operating partners. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 50% seniors housing and 50% skilled nursing properties.
How the Company Makes MoneyLTC Properties generates revenue primarily through leasing its properties to operators of senior living and healthcare facilities. The company earns rental income from long-term leases, which are typically structured to provide predictable cash flows. Additionally, LTC may engage in mortgage financing for its properties, earning interest income from loans. The company also benefits from partnerships with experienced operators in the healthcare sector, ensuring high occupancy rates and effective management of its facilities. Factors contributing to its earnings include the increasing demand for senior housing due to an aging population, strategic acquisitions of properties, and the stability of cash flows from its long-term lease agreements.
LTC Properties Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much rent and related revenue comes from each property type or business line, highlighting dependence on particular segments or tenants. Changes in segment revenue point to growth opportunities or concentration risks and help predict the impact of lease renewals, rent escalations, or tenant distress on overall top-line performance.
Shows how much rent and related revenue comes from each property type or business line, highlighting dependence on particular segments or tenants. Changes in segment revenue point to growth opportunities or concentration risks and help predict the impact of lease renewals, rent escalations, or tenant distress on overall top-line performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLTC Properties Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone centered on a rapid strategic pivot to SHOP with clear quantitative targets: sizeable acquisition guidance ($600M midpoint), meaningful portfolio mix shift (25% to 45% SHOP), improved per-share results (FFO +8%, FAD +11%), and strengthened liquidity ($810M pro forma). Management also acknowledged risks: higher interest expense, competitive acquisition pressure, operator concentration (Prestige) being addressed, and future CapEx and variability risks tied to a smaller portfolio. On balance the forward-looking growth initiatives, healthy liquidity and demonstrated early SHOP outperformance outweigh the noted execution and market risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Aggressive SHOP Acquisition Guidance
Guidance to $600 million in SHOP acquisitions at the 2026 midpoint (nearly 70% higher than SHOP acquisitions in 2025); $108 million closed year-to-date with an additional $160 million expected to close in Q2 — nearly halfway to the midpoint.
Rapid SHOP Portfolio Growth
SHOP grew to 25% of the investment portfolio by year-end 2025 and is expected to reach 45% of the investment portfolio and 40% of NOI by year-end 2026, taking SHOP to over $1 billion of assets with average portfolio age of 9 years.
Strong Early SHOP Performance
Original 13 converted properties grew NOI 22% pro forma over 2024 and produced $16.2 million of combined rent and NOI in 2025 (vs. $12.3 million rent in 2024); remainder of SHOP portfolio contributed $5.9 million of NOI in Q4, about $0.7 million above midpoint guidance.
2026 SHOP NOI and Same-Store Expectations
Guidance for 27 SHOP properties assumes 14% NOI growth at the midpoint for full-year 2026 over pro forma 2025; 2025 occupancy for that subset was 89.7% projected to rise ~150 basis points in 2026; RevPOR growth projected ~5% and EXPOR ~2.5%.
Capital Deployment Track Record and Pipeline
2025 SHOP acquisitions of $360 million; by end of Q2 will have added an additional $270 million; acquisition pipeline >$500 million comprised entirely of SHOP opportunities; underwriting targets ~7% year-1 yields with expectation of unlevered IRRs in the low- to mid-teens.
Strengthened Financial Flexibility
Expanded credit facility to $800 million (including $200 million term loans); pro forma liquidity of $810 million including expected $270 million of asset sales/loan payoffs in 2026; minimal near-term maturities and debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA of 4.5x (within 4–5x target).
Improving Per-Share Operating Results
Core FFO per share rose $0.05 to $0.70 (8% year-over-year growth) and core FAD per share rose $0.07 to $0.73 (11% year-over-year growth). 2026 guidance: core FFO per share $2.75–$2.79 and core FAD per share $2.82–$2.86.
Portfolio De-risking Moves
Anticipated prepayment of the $180 million Prestige loan (yielding ~11%) and planned sale of 5 skilled nursing properties plus loan payoffs totaling ~$90 million in next 60 days expected to reduce loans to <10% of portfolio and skilled nursing exposure to <30% by end of 2026.
Negative Updates
Interest Expense and Rent Headwinds
Core FFO/FAD growth was partially offset by increased interest expense and decreased rents related to asset sales, indicating near-term pressure from financing costs and portfolio recycling activity.
Operator and Market Concentration Risk (Prestige)
Heavy historical concentration with Prestige caused disruption tied to a state reimbursement program; although an anticipated $180 million payoff will reduce concentration, the exposure highlighted geopolitical/reimbursement risk in SNF assets.
Competitive Acquisition Environment
Senior housing and skilled nursing markets face competition from abundant private capital, putting pressure on yields and creating risk that acquisition pricing could compress below targeted year-1 underwriting (~7%); management acknowledges increasing competition and transaction pressure.
Portfolio Size and Variability
The SHOP portfolio being relatively small (27–30 properties referenced) implies higher variability/volatility in results versus a much larger portfolio, increasing execution risk while the platform scales.
CapEx Aging Risk Over Time
Current FAD CapEx guidance (~$5 million / ~$0.10 per share; ~$1,500 per unit) is low due to a young average asset age (9 years); management notes CapEx will increase as assets age, which could pressure future FAD if spend rises materially.
Execution and Forecast Uncertainty
Several forward-looking assumptions (occupancy improvement of ~150 bps, RevPOR +5%, EXPOR +2.5%, and achieving $600M midpoint acquisitions) are subject to execution risk and market dynamics; management declined to extend confident multi-year quantitative targets beyond 2026.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 SHOP acquisitions of $400M–$800M (midpoint $600M, all SHOP at midpoint) with SHOP NOI of $65M–$77M and FAD CapEx of ≈$5M; full-year core FFO per share $2.75–$2.79 and core FAD per share $2.82–$2.86 (Q1: core FFO $0.66–$0.68; core FAD $0.68–$0.70). Year-to-date LTC has closed $108M of SHOP and expects $160M to close in Q2 (2025 SHOP acquisitions were $360M) with a >$500M SHOP pipeline; SHOP is expected to grow from 25% of the portfolio at YE‑2025 to ~45% of the portfolio and >$1B of SHOP assets by YE‑2026 and to represent ~40% of NOI. Guidance for the 27 SHOP properties assumes ~14% NOI growth at the midpoint vs. pro‑forma 2025, 2025 occupancy of 89.7% projected to rise ≈150 bps in 2026, RevPOR ≈+5% and EXPOR ≈+2.5%; management is underwriting year‑1 acquisition yields near 7% (noting some assets priced ~7.7%) and targeting unlevered IRRs in the low‑ to mid‑teens. On the balance sheet, pro forma liquidity is ~$810M (including ~$270M expected asset sale/loan payoff proceeds), debt/annualized adj. EBITDA was 4.5x, fixed‑charge coverage 4.4x, FAD payout <80%, and the $180M Prestige loan prepayment (expected ~July) plus ~$90M of near‑term dispositions/payoffs will reduce loans to <10% of the portfolio and skilled nursing to <30%.LTC Properties Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue growth has re-accelerated (2024 to 2025) with strong reported margins and steady ROE, and leverage improved meaningfully into 2025. The main offset is weaker cash-flow-to-debt coverage in 2023–2025, signaling a reduced cash cushion against debt despite higher operating cash flow.Income Statement
Revenue has resumed solid growth, rising from $197.2M (2023) to $209.8M (2024) and $262.9M (2025). Profitability remains strong with consistently high gross profit margins (~90%+), and net profit margins generally healthy (about mid-30% to ~60%), with 2025 at ~45%. Offsetting this, profitability has been somewhat volatile over the cycle (notably stronger margins in 2020–2022 than 2024–2025), and one profitability line item appears inconsistent in 2025, which reduces confidence in trend quality.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks broadly stable with equity building to ~$1.07B by 2025 and assets rising to ~$2.06B. Leverage has improved meaningfully from a higher level in 2023 (debt-to-equity ~1.01) down to ~0.60 in 2025, alongside reduced total debt versus 2023. Return on equity has been steady in a ~9%–12% range, indicating reasonable profitability on shareholder capital, though the business remains meaningfully debt-funded as is typical for REITs.67
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive and improving in dollars, with operating cash flow rising from ~$104.4M (2023) to ~$125.2M (2024) and ~$136.0M (2025), and free cash flow tracking similarly. However, cash-flow-to-debt coverage weakened sharply in 2023–2025 (down to ~0.21 in 2025 from much stronger levels in 2020–2022), suggesting less cash-flow cushion relative to debt. Free cash flow has generally matched net income (near 1.0), which is supportive of earnings quality, but the reduced debt coverage is a clear risk signal.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 262.85M | 209.85M | 197.24M | 175.15M | 155.32M |
| Gross Profit | 254.63M | 196.92M | 183.97M | 159.67M | 139.93M |
| EBITDA | 190.97M | 171.58M | 175.89M | 169.52M | 121.89M |
| Net Income | 117.97M | 91.04M | 89.73M | 100.02M | 55.86M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.06B | 1.79B | 1.86B | 1.66B | 1.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.22B | 9.41M | 20.29M | 10.38M | 5.16M |
| Total Debt | 643.97M | 684.60M | 891.32M | 767.85M | 722.72M |
| Total Liabilities | 899.68M | 733.14M | 938.83M | 805.80M | 759.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.07B | 960.63M | 881.28M | 828.37M | 736.71M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.98M | 125.17M | 104.40M | 96.59M | 91.18M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 135.98M | 125.17M | 104.40M | 105.59M | 91.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -269.94M | 90.68M | -174.91M | -119.95M | -69.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 138.94M | -226.72M | 80.42M | 19.58M | -24.01M |
LTC Properties Technical Analysis
Positive
39.60
Price Trends
36.12
Positive
35.41
Positive
34.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.94
Negative
67.58
Neutral
66.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.85, above the 50-day MA of 36.12, and above the 200-day MA of 34.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LTC.
LTC Properties Risk Analysis
LTC Properties disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LTC Properties reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LTC Properties Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.41B | 42.76 | 2.34% | 6.98% | 3.74% | 77.82% | |
69 Neutral | $1.86B | 15.50 | 3.49% | 6.70% | 11.89% | -68.41% | |
66 Neutral | $479.15M | 216.67 | 0.46% | 12.08% | 3.40% | -240.85% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $604.33M | 33.63 | 10.55% | 7.51% | 0.68% | -1.34% | |
55 Neutral | $527.49M | -146.25 | 0.49% | 10.01% | 2.73% | -131.16% | |
54 Neutral | $1.48B | -5.37 | -15.78% | 0.80% | 4.10% | 8.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
LTC
LTC Properties
39.60
7.03
21.60%
DHC
Diversified Healthcare Trust
6.39
3.76
143.06%
CHCT
Community Healthcare
16.82
0.63
3.87%
GMRE
Global Medical REIT
36.24
-2.46
-6.35%
UHT
Universal Health Realty Income
44.09
7.27
19.74%
SILA
Sila Realty Trust, Inc.
26.39
3.43
14.94%
LTC Properties Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
LTC Properties Amends Credit Agreement, Boosts Commitment
Positive
Dec 15, 2025
On December 12, 2025, LTC Properties, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement with several banks, increasing its aggregate commitment from $600 million to $800 million. This amendment includes new term loans maturing between 2028 and 2032, with interest rates fixed through swap agreements, potentially enhancing LTC’s financial flexibility and stability.
The most recent analyst rating on (LTC) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LTC Properties stock, see the LTC Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.