CareTrust REIT (CTRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.13B
• Dividend Yield: 3.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: 59.25%
• EPS Growth: 88.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 223,237,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,683,721
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,792,010
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 15.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 21.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.63
• 1Y Price Target: $43.75
• Price Target Upside: 7.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $487.06M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(13.24% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

CTRE scores well on financial performance and earnings-call outlook, driven by strong recent growth, improving cash generation, and a conservatively positioned balance sheet alongside upbeat 2026 guidance. The score is moderated by an extended technical setup (overbought signals) and a less attractive valuation given the higher P/E despite a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

De-risked balance sheet and strong liquidity

CareTrust's move to essentially zero debt and materially lower leverage meaningfully reduces refinancing and interest-rate risks, increasing financial flexibility to fund acquisitions from cash, revolver capacity and pending equity proceeds. This strengthens durability of cash dividends and ability to execute a $500M+ pipeline without immediate leverage.

Diversified, growth-oriented investment pipeline

Record investments and expansion into UK care homes and a SHOP platform broaden revenue sources and reduce concentration in U.S. SNF. A sizable, actionable pipeline (~$500M) and recent deal flow (~$215M closed since year-end) create durable external growth options that can sustain FFO accretion over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Improving cash generation and FFO/FAD growth

Consistent operating and free cash flow growth, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in recent years, indicates earnings quality and strong cash conversion. Meaningful FFO/FAD per-share growth supports the dividend and provides internal capital for investments, making cash generation a durable pillar of the business model.

Negative Factors

Skilled nursing occupancy below peak

Sub-peak SNF occupancy constrains rent/EBITDAR recovery and operator financial health, limiting organic revenue upside and increasing sensitivity to operational headwinds. If occupancy recovery stalls, lease economics and rent escalations could underperform projections, pressuring long-term FFO and requiring more active asset or operator management.

SHOP competition and cap-rate compression

Rising competition and cap-rate compression in SHOP and portions of seniors housing reduce yield on new acquisitions, making it harder to underwrite attractive unlevered returns. Over time this narrows margin for error on acquisitions, raises reinvestment risk, and can slow accretive growth if purchase yields no longer exceed cost of capital.

Potential equity dilution from forward share sales

Reliance on unsettled equity forwards exposes investors to future dilution when shares settle, which can weigh on per-share FFO accretion. Continued dependence on equity financing to fund growth could limit long-term per-share gains or force management to reintroduce leverage, reducing the currently conservative capital structure's durability.

CareTrust REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly-traded real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, acquisition, development and leasing of skilled nursing, seniors housing and other healthcare-related properties. With a nationwide portfolio of long-term net-leased properties, and a growing portfolio of quality operators leasing them, CareTrust REIT is pursuing both external and organic growth opportunities across the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

CareTrust REIT generates revenue primarily through long-term leases with skilled nursing and assisted living operators. The company enters into triple-net leases, where the operators are responsible for property expenses such as maintenance, taxes, and insurance, allowing CareTrust to focus on rental income. Key revenue streams include monthly rental payments from tenants, which are typically structured to provide predictable cash flow. Additionally, CareTrust may benefit from rent escalations tied to inflation or other factors, enhancing its revenue potential. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with experienced healthcare operators, which helps ensure stable occupancy rates and enhances the value of its properties. Overall, CareTrust REIT's revenue model is built on the stability and predictability of lease income in the growing healthcare real estate sector.

CareTrust REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: accelerating 2025 revenue growth, improved profitability versus the 2022 loss, rising operating/free cash flow, and a significantly de-risked balance sheet (notably lower leverage). Primary offset is consistency risk—2025 profitability and the shift to near-zero debt look unusually large versus prior years and may reflect one-time or non-recurring factors.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated meaningfully in 2025 (annual) (+46.97%) after modest growth in 2023–2024, showing a strong recent trajectory. Profitability is very strong on the surface with consistently high gross and EBITDA margins, and net margin improved sharply from a loss in 2022 to solid profitability in 2023–2025. Key watchout: profitability was volatile in 2022 (net loss), and the 2025 margins look unusually elevated versus prior years, suggesting results may be influenced by non-recurring items or accounting effects rather than purely operating improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet strengthened substantially over time, with leverage falling from high levels in 2021–2022 (debt meaningfully above equity) to moderate in 2023–2024 and then showing zero debt in 2025 (annual), which is a major de-risking. Equity and total assets expanded materially, and returns on equity improved versus 2023–2024, indicating better profitability on a larger capital base. Main risk: the step-change to zero debt is a major structural shift versus prior periods and may not be permanent; investors should monitor whether leverage reappears as growth continues.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose each year from 2022 through 2025 (annual), and free cash flow also expanded with strong growth in 2025 (+17.83%). Cash flow quality looks good, with free cash flow roughly matching net income across periods (near 1.0 in 2023–2025), suggesting earnings are well-supported by cash. Weaknesses include the 2022 dip in free cash flow growth and lower cash coverage in 2022 (sub-1), indicating cash flow can soften during tougher periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	476.59M	228.26M	198.60M	187.51M	190.19M
Gross Profit	281.79M	214.71M	189.01M	178.13M	186.62M
EBITDA	462.08M	211.54M	145.80M	72.88M	151.05M
Net Income	320.54M	125.08M	53.73M	-7.51M	71.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.15B	3.44B	2.08B	1.62B	1.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	198.04M	213.82M	294.45M	13.18M	19.89M
Total Debt	894.22M	396.93M	595.60M	719.50M	673.40M
Total Liabilities	1.09B	507.63M	666.12M	771.41M	725.09M
Stockholders Equity	4.04B	2.91B	1.42B	849.37M	915.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	379.04M	236.20M	143.79M	137.12M	150.86M
Operating Cash Flow	394.03M	244.25M	154.77M	144.41M	156.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.46B	-1.49B	-267.81M	-127.40M	-192.63M
Financing Cash Flow	1.05B	1.17B	394.32M	-23.73M	36.74M

CareTrust REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.31, above the 50-day MA of 37.82, and above the 200-day MA of 34.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTRE.

CareTrust REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTRE	79 Outperform	$9.13B	25.92	9.21%	3.56%	59.25%	88.37%
OHI	74 Outperform	$14.22B	24.89	11.79%	6.11%	13.50%	31.56%
NHI	70 Outperform	$4.24B	27.86	9.85%	4.73%	8.04%	9.20%
SBRA	70 Outperform	$5.19B	32.29	5.59%	6.47%	8.12%	75.95%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AHR	65 Neutral	$10.05B	124.86	2.50%	2.10%	11.81%	―
HR	64 Neutral	$6.43B	-25.89	-5.04%	6.56%	-6.59%	33.35%

CareTrust REIT Corporate Events

CareTrust REIT Posts Strong Quarter and Upbeat 2026 Outlook

CareTrust REIT reported strong results for the quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 2025, highlighted by full-year net income of $320.5 million, or $1.57 per diluted share, nearly doubling year on year. Normalized FFO per share rose 17% to $1.76 and Normalized FAD per share climbed 14%, supported by $1.8 billion of investments at an 8.6% yield and $1.1 billion of equity raised, while the company also maintained a $0.335 quarterly dividend.

Fourth-quarter net income rose 72% to $111.3 million, with 100% rent and interest collection on retained properties and a conservative net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.7x, well below its target leverage range. Management highlighted record external growth, new UK care home and SHOP platforms, ample liquidity including full availability on a $1.2 billion revolver, and 2026 guidance implying roughly 9% growth in Normalized FFO and FAD per share, underscoring a positive outlook and strengthened competitive position in healthcare real estate.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRE) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareTrust REIT stock, see the CTRE Stock Forecast page.

CareTrust REIT Updates Operating Partnership Agreement

On December 11, 2025, CareTrust REIT, Inc. announced amendments to its Operating Partnership Agreement, introducing a new class of ‘LTIP Units’ that include sub-classes such as Basic and Performance LTIP Units. These changes enhance compensation flexibility for directors, executives, and employees with equity awards based on service and performance requirements tied to shareholder returns. The updated structure aims to maintain U.S. tax benefits, provide employees with convertible equity incentives, and incorporate broader changes, reflecting a reduction in the company’s ownership stake in its operating partnerships. This development impacts both the company’s internal operations and its competitive positioning in attracting and retaining talent.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRE) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareTrust REIT stock, see the CTRE Stock Forecast page.