St Joe Company (JOE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.18B
• Dividend Yield: 0.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 217.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 26.89%
• EPS Growth: 53.54%
• Country: US
• Employees: 863
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 57,544,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 292,709
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 217,238
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.67
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.35
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $82.00 ▲(26.02% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (higher revenue/profit, much stronger cash generation, and a cleaner balance sheet) and a positive earnings-call outlook with a sizable development runway and shareholder returns. Technicals also support the view with an established uptrend. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E and low yield), alongside some uncertainty from historical cash-flow variability and the large year-over-year debt change.

Positive Factors

Material improvement in cash generation

Sustained OCF and FCF of roughly $191M materially improve internal funding for development, capital returns and reinvestment. Strong cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, increases resilience through cycles, and supports durable capital allocation over the next several quarters.

Effectively de-levered balance sheet

A near-zero reported debt position significantly lowers financial risk and interest exposure, giving management flexibility to fund projects, buybacks or dividends from internal sources. If sustained, an unlevered structure materially strengthens credit resilience and strategic optionality.

Diversified segment growth and record operations

Concurrent record performance across hospitality, leasing and residential indicates diversified, recurring revenue streams. Multiple strong segments reduce single-market dependence, support steadier cashflows through cycles, and leverage land assets across complementary operating businesses long-term.

Negative Factors

Quality-of-earnings and reporting inconsistencies

Inconsistent margin reporting and anomalous zero EBIT data create uncertainty about recurring profitability. This complicates forecasting, masks one-time items, and raises the risk that headline improvements may not be fully repeatable, affecting long-term confidence in performance metrics.

Difficulty monetizing non-strategic assets

Stranded or hard-to-sell land and operating assets can delay value realization and tie up capital. Difficulty monetizing these holdings risks forcing discounted sales or slower deleveraging, restricting ability to recycle capital into higher-return developments or shareholder returns over the medium term.

Concentration in regional tourism and local markets

Heavy exposure to the Florida panhandle hospitality, leasing and residential demand concentrates revenue on regional tourism and local economic health. Downturns in travel, local oversupply, or weaker regional demand would disproportionately impact earnings and cash generation over multiple quarters.

St Joe Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment plans and develops residential communities of various sizes for homebuilders or retail consumers. It primarily sells developed homesites and parcels of entitled or undeveloped land. The Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services. The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets. This segment also plans, develops, entitles, manages, and sells commercial land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products. The company owns 170,000 acres of land in Northwest Florida. The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

St Joe Company generates revenue primarily through the sale and development of real estate properties. The company's key revenue streams include residential home sales, commercial real estate sales, and leasing income from developed commercial properties. Additionally, St Joe's involvement in resort and hospitality management contributes to its earnings through hotel room bookings, event hosting, and recreational activities. Significant partnerships with local governments and developers enhance St Joe's ability to manage and develop land efficiently, while favorable market conditions in the Florida panhandle, driven by population growth and tourism, further bolster the company's financial performance.

St Joe Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent fundamentals: revenue rose to $513M in 2025 with solid profitability (~22.5% net margin), operating cash flow and free cash flow improved to ~$191M, and the balance sheet appears materially de-risked with debt reported at $0 (vs. ~$675M in 2024). Confidence is tempered by historical free-cash-flow volatility and a very large one-year debt swing plus some margin-data inconsistencies.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over time (from $161M in 2020 to $513M in 2025), including a sharp step-up in 2025, and profitability remains solid with a 2025 net margin of ~22.5% (up from ~18.4% in 2024). That said, margins have been somewhat uneven year-to-year, and 2025 shows an unusual mix of extremely high gross margin versus a missing/zero EBIT margin value in the data, which adds quality-of-earnings uncertainty despite the headline improvement.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength improved materially in 2025 with total debt reported at $0 versus ~$675M in 2024, leaving the company effectively unlevered and supported by ~$776M of equity. Returns on equity are healthy (~14.9% in 2025), and assets are stable around ~$1.5B. The key watch-out is the dramatic one-year debt swing, which may reflect a major deleveraging event or reporting classification change—worth validating, but if accurate it meaningfully reduces financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened significantly in 2025: operating cash flow rose to ~$191M (from ~$108M in 2024) and free cash flow also reached ~$191M, comfortably exceeding net income (about 1.0x). Prior years were more volatile, including negative free cash flow in multiple periods (notably 2022 and 2023), indicating spending or working-capital swings can meaningfully impact cash conversion. Overall, the latest year looks strong, but the historical variability keeps this from scoring higher.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	513.32M	402.74M	389.29M	252.30M	267.00M
Gross Profit	477.51M	167.22M	153.31M	106.42M	135.68M
EBITDA	279.59M	141.97M	169.46M	84.36M	132.79M
Net Income	115.63M	74.19M	77.71M	70.93M	74.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.52B	1.54B	1.52B	1.43B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	129.60M	88.80M	86.07M	78.32M	159.12M
Total Debt	0.00	675.42M	632.89M	569.36M	406.38M
Total Liabilities	742.80M	801.84M	825.04M	779.73M	582.05M
Stockholders Equity	775.60M	724.28M	683.06M	630.80M	607.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	186.64M	58.06M	-36.12M	-210.94M	-41.70M
Operating Cash Flow	190.70M	107.99M	103.85M	48.22M	111.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-26.22M	-50.38M	-99.14M	-189.78M	-196.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-124.28M	-52.07M	40.76M	112.46M	48.57M

St Joe Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.39, below the 50-day MA of 65.43, and above the 200-day MA of 54.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JOE.

St Joe Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JOE	78 Outperform	$4.18B	36.18	14.16%	0.98%	26.89%	53.54%
CHCI	69 Neutral	$115.00M	8.23	28.39%	―	22.98%	124.09%
APLE	67 Neutral	$2.90B	16.62	5.47%	8.30%	0.57%	-13.58%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HHH	64 Neutral	$4.33B	34.37	3.78%	―	59.27%	240.63%
RYN	60 Neutral	$6.58B	49.13	23.75%	12.79%	8.88%	131.78%

St Joe Company Corporate Events

St. Joe Company Delivers Strong 2025 Earnings Growth

The St. Joe Company reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on February 25, 2026, with quarterly net income up 58% year on year to $29.9 million and revenue rising 24% to $128.9 million, driven by a 47% jump in real estate revenue and record hospitality revenue. For 2025, net income climbed 56% to $115.6 million as total revenue grew 27% to $513.2 million, supported by record hospitality and leasing revenues, higher residential homesite prices and margins, and an active capital allocation program that increased cash, funded $108.1 million of capital expenditures, returned $73.6 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, and reduced net debt, while the board declared a $0.16 quarterly dividend payable in March 2026.

Management highlighted the company’s transition beyond a traditional land bank into an integrated operator using its extensive land holdings to create what it calls a “virtuous circle” of value creation across segments. The company also pointed to improving air connectivity into Northwest Florida, including new nonstop flights between New York’s LaGuardia and Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport and record passenger traffic in 2025, as a tailwind expected to support continued growth across its residential, hospitality and leasing businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (JOE) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on St Joe Company stock, see the JOE Stock Forecast page.