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St Joe Company
(NYSE:JOE)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$69.00
▲(11.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/03/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and a notable step-up in TTM free cash flow) and a positive earnings call emphasizing accelerating growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns via buybacks/dividends. Offsetting factors are a mixed technical trend (below key longer-term moving averages) and a less compelling valuation profile (P/E ~29 with ~1% yield), plus the inherent volatility typical of project-driven real estate development.
Positive Factors
Cash generation ability
The company converted nearly all reported earnings into cash in the trailing 12 months (TTM OCF $216.8M; FCF $215.3M, ~0.95x). Durable cash conversion supports sustained capital returns, reinvestment in projects, and liquidity flexibility across the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Lumpy lot/land sales cadence
The business depends on multi-year seeding/harvesting cycles for lot sales, creating material timing volatility in revenue and cash flow. This structural non-linearity hampers predictability of earnings and complicates medium-term capital allocation and forecasting for 2–6 months ahead.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation ability
The company converted nearly all reported earnings into cash in the trailing 12 months (TTM OCF $216.8M; FCF $215.3M, ~0.95x). Durable cash conversion supports sustained capital returns, reinvestment in projects, and liquidity flexibility across the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
St Joe Company (JOE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.54B
Dividend Yield1%
Average Volume (3M)217.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.1
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth28.41%
EPS Growth50.50%
CountryUS
Employees1,019
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.14
Shares Outstanding56,930,450
10 Day Avg. Volume292,709
30 Day Avg. Volume217,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)6.67
P/FCF Ratio18.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
St Joe Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The St. Joe Company, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a real estate development, asset management, and operational enterprise, primarily located in Northwest Florida. Its business activities are organized into three primary divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
St. Joe generates revenue through a mix of real estate development/sales and recurring operating income from owned properties and amenities. A major component is residential and commercial real estate: it sells developed homesites and land parcels...
St Joe Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth (23%), sizable net income improvement (37%), broad margin expansion across segments, active share repurchases and the lowest share count in decades, plus a large entitled land base and ongoing strategic projects. Weaknesses and risks discussed were mostly structural or execution-related rather than immediate financial distress — notably capital intensity for utility work, lumpy lot/land sales leading to quarter-to-quarter volatility, investor concerns about share-selling dynamics and near-term inventory considerations at Origins. Overall, the positives (record revenue and earnings, margin expansion, shareholder returns, and strategic asset base) materially outweigh the identified lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook while acknowledging some execution and market-perception risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Net Income
Total revenue increased 23% year-over-year to $158.9 million (highest Q2 in 20 years). Net income rose 37% year-over-year to $40.5 million (highest Q2 in company history, excluding a 1996 one-off).
Negative Updates
Capital-Intensive Off-Site Utility Development
Planned off-site utility extensions (two major utility corridors) are capital intensive; while necessary to harvest many thousands of future homesites, they represent significant near-term capital outlays that could affect short-term cash deployment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Net Income
Total revenue increased 23% year-over-year to $158.9 million (highest Q2 in 20 years). Net income rose 37% year-over-year to $40.5 million (highest Q2 in company history, excluding a 1996 one-off).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance stressed a long‑term capital allocation and buyback approach and gave timing for key projects — two off‑site utility corridors to start later this year and the new Highway 79 academic hospital completing in 2028 — while highlighting current financial momentum: Q2 revenue $158.9M (+23% y/y) and net income $40.5M (+37% y/y), residential revenue +39% y/y, and improved gross margins (residential 48% vs 45%, hospitality 42% vs 39%, commercial 65% vs 57%); Q2 capital deployment totaled $32.7M in share repurchases, $24M in capex, $10.9M debt repayment and $9.1M in dividends (allocation 43% buybacks / 31% capex / 14% debt reduction / 12% dividends), with $41M repurchased YTD as of July 27 (vs $40M in all of 2025) and 56,930,451 shares outstanding (the lowest in nearly 30 years); other cited metrics included 165,000 acres mostly entitled, H1 true‑ups $14.6M booked and $5.3M collected, management’s reference to >$100M annualized recurring income, >$100M cash and a highly unlevered balance sheet, and a 1–2 year seeding/harvesting cadence for lots.St Joe Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 547.85M | 513.32M | 402.74M | 389.29M | 252.30M | 267.00M |
| Gross Profit | 447.99M | 477.51M | 167.22M | 153.31M | 106.42M | 135.68M |
| EBITDA | 241.03M | 279.59M | 178.32M | 169.46M | 135.89M | 132.79M |
| Net Income | 123.05M | 115.63M | 74.19M | 77.71M | 70.93M | 74.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.51B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 1.52B | 1.43B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.31M | 129.60M | 88.80M | 86.07M | 78.32M | 159.12M |
| Total Debt | 549.32M | 393.92M | 675.42M | 632.89M | 569.36M | 406.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 735.38M | 742.80M | 801.84M | 825.04M | 779.73M | 582.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 764.46M | 766.29M | 724.28M | 683.06M | 630.80M | 607.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 215.26M | 186.64M | 58.06M | -36.12M | -210.94M | -41.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 216.80M | 190.70M | 107.99M | 103.85M | 48.22M | 111.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.19M | -26.22M | -50.38M | -99.14M | -189.78M | -196.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -159.81M | -124.28M | -52.07M | 40.76M | 112.46M | 48.57M |
St Joe Company Technical Analysis
Positive
62.12
Price Trends
63.14
Positive
64.48
Positive
63.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.34
Negative
63.11
Neutral
72.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.95, below the 50-day MA of 63.14, and below the 200-day MA of 63.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JOE.
St Joe Company Risk Analysis
St Joe Company disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. St Joe Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
St Joe Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.90B | 22.62 | 5.43% | 5.72% | -0.51% | -8.63% | |
71 Outperform | $3.54B | 29.08 | 16.10% | 1.00% | 28.41% | 50.50% | |
71 Outperform | $6.59B | 7.19 | 15.36% | 11.42% | -42.41% | -82.14% | |
69 Neutral | $144.65M | 8.18 | 27.54% | ― | 26.97% | 12.35% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
58 Neutral | $3.81B | 31.18 | 3.25% | ― | -17.29% | -60.87% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
JOE
St Joe Company
64.93
15.14
30.40%
CHCI
Comstock Homebuilding Companies
15.46
2.16
16.24%
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
65.69
-3.44
-4.98%
RYN
Rayonier
22.02
0.59
2.77%
APLE
Apple Hospitality REIT
16.55
5.80
53.95%
St Joe Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
St Joe Company Posts Record Q2 Results, Boosts Dividend
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, The St. Joe Company reported sharply improved second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, highlighted by record second-quarter net income of $40.5 million, up 37% year-on-year, and a 23% rise in quarterly revenue to $158.8 millio...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
St. Joe Highlights Growth Strategy and Capital Allocation Focus
Positive
May 12, 2026
At its May 13, 2025 annual shareholders meeting, the St. Joe Company highlighted a strategy centered on expanding recurring income from commercial and hospitality assets, scaling residential communities, and balancing capital between growth capex,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
St Joe Company Expands Stock Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of The St. Joe Company expanded its existing stock repurchase program, which previously had about $49.2 million in remaining capacity for buying back common shares. The board authorized an additional $150.8 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.