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Hess Midstream Partners (HESM)
NYSE:HESM
US Market

Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) AI Stock Analysis

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Hess Midstream Partners

(NYSE:HESM)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(12.54%Upside)
Hess Midstream's strong financial performance and positive corporate events, such as the repurchase plan, are the primary strengths. While technical indicators are mixed, the company's valuation is attractive due to its reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Growth
Management has a clear view of free cash flow growth through the end of the decade, driven by EBITDA growth and declining capital expenditure.
Stock Buybacks
There is an expectation of nearly $2.5 billion in stock buybacks over the next five years, representing more than 25% of the company's market cap.
Negative Factors
EBITDA Guidance
Q4 EBITDA guidance was a tad below Consensus.
Operational Expenses
Slightly lowering the 2024 EBITDA estimate to reflect the impact of wildfires and higher operational expenses.

Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hess Midstream Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHess Midstream LP owns, develops, operates, and acquires midstream assets. The company operates through three segments: Gathering; Processing and Storage; and Terminaling and Export. The Gathering segment owns natural gas gathering and compression; crude oil gathering systems; and produced water gathering and disposal facilities. Its gathering systems consists of approximately 1,350 miles of high and low pressure natural gas and natural gas liquids gathering pipelines with capacity of approximately 450 million cubic feet per day; and crude oil gathering system comprises approximately 550 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines. The Processing and Storage segment comprises Tioga Gas Plant, a natural gas processing and fractionation plant located in Tioga, North Dakota; a 50% interest in the Little Missouri 4 gas processing plant located in south of the Missouri River in McKenzie County, North Dakota; and Mentor Storage Terminal, a propane storage cavern and rail, and truck loading and unloading facility located in Mentor, Minnesota. The Terminaling and Export segment owns Ramberg terminal facility; Tioga rail terminal; and crude oil rail cars, as well as Johnson's Corner Header System, a crude oil pipeline header system. Hess Midstream LP was founded in 2014 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHess Midstream Partners generates revenue through fee-based contracts for its midstream services, which include the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas, crude oil, and NGLs. The company primarily serves Hess Corporation, its parent company, under long-term fee-based agreements, ensuring a steady and predictable revenue stream. Additionally, HESM collaborates with other third-party producers, leveraging its extensive infrastructure to provide reliable midstream solutions. This fee-based model helps protect Hess Midstream from direct commodity price exposure, as its earnings are more dependent on the volume of hydrocarbons transported rather than their market price. The company's strategic partnerships and focus on operational efficiency further enhance its financial performance and growth potential.

Hess Midstream Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with Hess Midstream demonstrating resilience and strong performance despite weather challenges. While there were some negative impacts from weather on throughput and financial metrics, the reaffirmation of guidance, strong shareholder returns, and a robust financial position provided a largely optimistic view.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operating and Financial Performance
Hess Midstream delivered strong operating and financial performance despite challenging weather. Throughput volumes were 424 million cubic feet per day for gas processing, 125,000 barrels of oil per day for crude terminaling, and 126,000 barrels of water per day for water gathering.
Bakken Production Growth
Hess Corporation reported first-quarter net production in the Bakken averaged 195,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. They plan to run a four-rig drilling program in 2025 and expect Bakken net production to rise to 210,000-215,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, up approximately 9% at the midpoint compared to the first quarter.
Reaffirmed Guidance
Hess Midstream reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial and throughput guidance, projecting increased volumes and revenues in the second quarter despite higher seasonal maintenance activity.
Shareholder Returns
Since 2021, $1.95 billion has been returned to shareholders through accretive repurchases. Distribution per Class A share has increased by approximately 57% since 2021.
Strong Financial Position
Hess Midstream's leverage is approximately 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA, one of the lowest among peers, highlighting strong balance sheet strength.
Negative Updates
Weather Impact on Throughput Volumes
Throughput volumes were down compared to the fourth quarter due to severe winter weather in January and February, though partially offset by higher third-party oil volumes and a strong recovery in March.
Decrease in Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $161 million, down from $172 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $292 million from $298 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly due to lower volumes and revenues from severe winter weather.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Hess Midstream demonstrated robust operational and financial performance despite challenging weather conditions, with throughput volumes averaging 424 million cubic feet per day for gas processing, 125,000 barrels of oil per day for crude terminaling, and 126,000 barrels of water per day for water gathering. The company reaffirmed its full-year financial and throughput guidance, expecting net income of $715-765 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1,235-1,285 million. Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $300 million, with adjusted free cash flow anticipated between $735-785 million for the year. The company aims for sustainable cash flow growth and plans to increase distribution per Class A share by at least 5% annually through 2027. Additionally, Hess Midstream plans to generate over $1.25 billion in financial flexibility by 2027, facilitating multiple unit repurchases yearly. The first quarter adjusted EBITDA was $292 million, with a gross margin of approximately 80%, and net income was $161 million.

Hess Midstream Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hess Midstream Partners shows strong profitability with high margins and revenue growth. However, a concerning rising debt-to-equity ratio poses financial risk, balanced by consistent cash flow generation and strong return on equity.
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Hess Midstream Partners demonstrates strong profitability with consistently high gross and net profit margins over the years. The company has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a notable increase from the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operational performance.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a high level of debt relative to equity, with a rising debt-to-equity ratio, which could pose a financial risk. However, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio, showing a stable asset base. Return on equity remains strong, indicating effective use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
Hess Midstream Partners has shown strong cash flow management with consistent free cash flow generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests healthy cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth has seen some fluctuations, which could be an area of concern if it persists.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.52B1.50B1.35B1.28B1.20B1.09B
Gross Profit1.14B1.29B1.04B1.09B1.04B935.00M
EBITDA1.15B1.14B1.02B972.50M903.40M733.40M
Net Income250.10M223.10M118.60M620.60M617.80M484.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.26B4.15B3.79B3.59B3.49B3.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.10M4.30M5.40M3.10M2.20M2.60M
Total Debt3.57B3.47B3.21B2.89B2.56B1.91B
Total Liabilities3.75B3.69B3.43B3.06B2.73B2.05B
Stockholders Equity0.00465.30M340.20M529.00M753.10M1.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow660.60M634.20M642.90M622.90M632.30M340.60M
Operating Cash Flow957.40M940.30M866.40M861.10M795.50M641.70M
Investing Cash Flow-296.80M-306.10M-223.50M-238.20M-163.20M-301.00M
Financing Cash Flow-658.70M-635.30M-640.60M-622.00M-632.70M-341.40M

Hess Midstream Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price38.21
Price Trends
50DMA
38.07
Positive
100DMA
38.76
Negative
200DMA
37.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.01
Positive
RSI
48.44
Neutral
STOCH
38.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HESM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.64, above the 50-day MA of 38.07, and above the 200-day MA of 37.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HESM.

Hess Midstream Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WEWES
79
Outperform
$14.85B11.6439.79%9.35%11.48%-5.67%
DTDTM
79
Outperform
$10.76B28.978.29%3.10%10.83%-10.47%
AMAM
78
Outperform
$8.68B21.0719.71%4.97%5.03%7.15%
77
Outperform
$8.03B15.0249.74%7.43%8.77%15.22%
62
Neutral
$6.93B46.71-8.21%7.12%23.42%-61.22%
44
Neutral
AU$1.39B-6.73-23.02%6.50%5.33%-26.92%
SMSMC
41
Neutral
$474.58M5.86-28.13%-4.69%-418.50%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
38.21
3.74
10.85%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
38.94
0.17
0.44%
SMC
Summit Midstream
25.29
-8.71
-25.62%
AM
Antero Midstream
18.11
4.31
31.23%
KNTK
Kinetik
43.85
4.27
10.79%
DTM
DT Midstream
105.94
38.87
57.95%

Hess Midstream Partners Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Hess Midstream Partners Announces Secondary Share Offering
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Hess Midstream LP announced the pricing of a secondary public offering of 15,022,517 Class A shares at $37.25 per share, conducted by an affiliate of Global Infrastructure Partners. The offering, managed by J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, is expected to generate gross proceeds of $559.59 million for the selling shareholder, with the company itself not receiving any proceeds. The offering is anticipated to close on May 30, 2025, and includes customary conditions and indemnifications. Additionally, governance changes were announced with the resignation of three board members, who left without disagreements with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HESM) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hess Midstream Partners stock, see the HESM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Hess Midstream Announces Major Share Offering
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Hess Midstream LP announced the commencement of a public offering of 15,022,517 Class A shares by GIP II Blue Holding, L.P., an affiliate of Global Infrastructure Partners. This offering will result in GIP no longer holding ownership interests in Hess Midstream or its affiliates, with Hess Investments North Dakota LLC gaining full control. The board will see the resignation of GIP’s designated directors, and Hess will continue to control the company’s management. The offering will not alter existing commercial agreements or the partnership agreement with Hess.

The most recent analyst rating on (HESM) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hess Midstream Partners stock, see the HESM Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Hess Midstream Partners Announces $200 Million Repurchase Plan
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 5, 2025, Hess Midstream LP announced a $200 million repurchase agreement, including $190 million of Class B units from its sponsors and $10 million of Class A shares from the public. The repurchase, approved by the board and conflicts committee, aims to enhance shareholder returns and maintain financial flexibility. The transaction is expected to close on May 9, 2025, with funding from the company’s existing revolving credit facility.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 05, 2025