Kinetik (KNTK)
NYSE:KNTK
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Kinetik
(NYSE:KNTK)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
â–²(13.56% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven mainly by strong technical trend and a constructive earnings outlook with affirmed guidance and record Q1 performance. Offsetting these positives, the balance sheet remains the key risk due to persistently negative equity and elevated debt, while valuation is mixed given an attractive dividend but a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & free cash flow
Kinetik’s consistent positive operating cash flow and multi-year free cash flow generation provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, project execution, distributions and deleveraging. Reliable cash conversion strengthens resilience through cycles and supports multi-year capital plans without recurring equity issuance.
Negative Factors
High leverage & weak equity cushion
Rising debt and persistent negative shareholders’ equity reduce financial flexibility and increase refinancing, covenant and interest coverage risk. Limited equity cushion constrains capital allocation choices, elevates sensitivity to cash flow shocks and may require ongoing financing solutions over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & free cash flow
Kinetik’s consistent positive operating cash flow and multi-year free cash flow generation provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, project execution, distributions and deleveraging. Reliable cash conversion strengthens resilience through cycles and supports multi-year capital plans without recurring equity issuance.
Read all positive factors
Kinetik (KNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.94B
Dividend Yield8.77%
Average Volume (3M)1.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth-1.05%
EPS Growth160.44%
CountryUS
Employees460
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.53
Shares Outstanding68,802,185
10 Day Avg. Volume984,336
30 Day Avg. Volume1,040,028
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)-3.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio30.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.91Price Target Upside9.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.94B
Kinetik Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kinetik Holdings Inc. operates as a midstream company in the Texas Delaware Basin. It provides gathering, transportation, compression, processing, and treating services for companies that produce natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and wa...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinetik makes money by providing midstream services and charging fees tied to the volumes of hydrocarbons it gathers, processes, transports, and handles. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Gathering fees: payments from producers for moving...
Kinetik Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a confident and constructive tone: management reported record Q1 adjusted EBITDA, strong cash generation, meaningful commercial contract amendments, regulatory approvals and tangible progress on capital projects (King’s Landing AGI/sour conversion, ECCC pipeline, power interconnections). These positives are balanced against significant short‑term headwinds from extreme Waha price dislocation and materially higher-than-expected gas curtailments that reduced near‑term volume growth assumptions. Management has offset much of the near-term revenue impact through marketing spreads, hedges, and additional Gulf Coast exposure, affirmed full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and emphasized structural long‑term tailwinds (new egress capacity, LNG contract, commercial momentum). Given the record results, balance‑sheet strength, project and contract progress and management’s articulated plans to mitigate Waha risk — despite meaningful short‑term volume and price challenges — the overall tone is constructive and resilient.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Negative Updates
Severe Waha Pricing Dislocation
Waha hub experienced extreme weakness: March–April daily average was negative $4.81/MMBtu. For much of spring and into October forward curves show Waha remaining negative, creating volatile local pricing and operational challenges for producers and midstream.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kinetik affirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $950 million–$1.05 billion after reporting a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $251 million, distributable cash flow of $181 million and free cash flow of $101 million; Q1 Midstream Logistics adj. EBITDA was $179 million (+12% YoY) and Pipeline Transportation was $78 million. Management now expects processed gas volumes to grow only low- to mid-single-digit % year‑over‑year (versus prior high‑single‑digit guidance), reflecting roughly 220 MMcf/d of average 2026 curtailments (up about 120 MMcf/d from prior assumptions) on a current processed gas base of ~1.8 Bcf/d — a temporary deferral that increases PDP entering 2027 — while roughly 75% of legacy Durango volumes have been amended. Offsets include wider Waha-to-Houston spreads (≈50% of transport spread exposure hedged for 2026), commodity hedges of ~75% for propane/butane and ~85% for crude/C5+, and an estimated ~$20 million uplift to 2026 adjusted EBITDA at current forwards (ex‑Gulf Coast marketing spread). They reiterated the expected quarterly cadence (Q1–Q2 ~$230–$240M; Q3–Q4 ~$260–$270M), kept 2026 CapEx at $450M–$510M (Q1 CapEx $91M) with spend evenly weighted thereafter, finished the quarter at 3.9x leverage with ample revolver capacity, and pointed to operational milestones and capacity adds (ECCC in‑service later this quarter; King’s Landing TAG operational capacity 26.5 MMcf/d with >31 MMcf/d permitted and AGI/TAG 20 MMcf/d; sour conversion on track for year‑end 2026) plus >5 Bcf/d new takeaway by early 2027 and ~6 Bcf/d more in 2028–29.Kinetik Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.76B | 1.48B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 662.04M |
| Gross Profit | 422.80M | 324.39M | 538.11M | 459.70M | 411.63M | 184.87M |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 1.19B | 801.26M | 634.19M | 653.37M | 350.90M |
| Net Income | 228.06M | 178.26M | 244.23M | 386.45M | 135.52M | 1.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.11B | 7.27B | 6.81B | 6.50B | 5.92B | 3.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 720.00K | 3.95M | 3.61M | 4.51M | 6.39M | 18.73M |
| Total Debt | 3.83B | 3.87B | 3.53B | 3.60B | 3.40B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.27B | 4.34B | 3.84B | 3.87B | 3.65B | 2.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.67B | -565.38M | -2.98B | -530.82M | -839.77M | 10.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 346.72M | 74.45M | 361.47M | 254.93M | 391.43M | 152.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 607.72M | 604.12M | 637.35M | 584.48M | 613.01M | 235.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.09M | -199.09M | -176.89M | -686.32M | -286.13M | -99.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -587.76M | -404.68M | -461.36M | 99.96M | -339.21M | -136.81M |
Kinetik Technical Analysis
Neutral
46.67
Price Trends
45.39
Positive
40.72
Positive
39.69
Positive
Market Momentum
0.46
Positive
51.87
Neutral
57.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNTK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.00, above the 50-day MA of 45.39, and above the 200-day MA of 39.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KNTK.
Kinetik Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $14.80B | 26.36 | 9.82% | 2.70% | 22.22% | 23.30% | |
76 Outperform | $8.05B | 14.33 | 68.61% | 8.45% | 7.06% | 13.61% | |
73 Outperform | $10.15B | 22.84 | 20.38% | 4.98% | 8.14% | -0.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $7.94B | -155.64 | -16.36% | 8.77% | -1.05% | 160.44% | |
62 Neutral | $2.75B | 20.58 | 1917.10% | 9.78% | 13.04% | 6.21% | |
55 Neutral | $1.93B | 80.28 | 14.71% | 4.14% | -35.30% | 88.99% |
* Energy Sector Average
KNTK
Kinetik
49.75
6.51
15.05%
GEL
Genesis Energy
15.74
1.20
8.28%
DKL
Delek Logistics
51.00
14.14
38.37%
AM
Antero Midstream
21.56
3.85
21.75%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
38.82
3.07
8.59%
DTM
DT Midstream
145.99
46.27
46.40%
Kinetik Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kinetik Amends and Extends Receivables Securitization Facility
Positive
Apr 3, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Kinetik Holdings LP amended its accounts receivable securitization facility, extending the scheduled termination date of the program to March 30, 2027 and maintaining PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.