Kinetik (KNTK)
NYSE:KNTK
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Kinetik
(NYSE:KNTK)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
â–²(9.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
KNTK scores as a balanced midstream name: strong profitability and cash generation and a high dividend support the outlook, but the heavily constrained balance sheet (negative equity and high debt) is a primary risk. Technicals are only mildly supportive, and the earnings call was constructive on execution and guidance affirmation but flagged meaningful near-term volume/price headwinds from Waha-driven curtailments.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable funding for distributions, maintenance capital and debt service. This cash-generation ability underpins dividend support, funds project execution without excessive external financing, and cushions temporary volume shocks.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / negative equity
Persistently negative shareholders' equity and elevated absolute debt constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing, covenant and credit risks. A thin capital cushion limits ability to absorb prolonged downturns or fund expansions without taking on additional costly financing or dilutive measures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable funding for distributions, maintenance capital and debt service. This cash-generation ability underpins dividend support, funds project execution without excessive external financing, and cushions temporary volume shocks.
Read all positive factors
Kinetik (KNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.32B
Dividend Yield8.77%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.7
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth-1.05%
EPS Growth160.44%
CountryUS
Employees460
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.53
Shares Outstanding73,602,330
10 Day Avg. Volume1,131,580
30 Day Avg. Volume1,011,633
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.01
P/FCF Ratio0.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.00Price Target Upside13.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.90B
Kinetik Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kinetik Holdings Inc. functions as a midstream energy enterprise, primarily operating within the Texas Delaware Basin. It delivers a comprehensive array of services, including the collection, conveyance, pressurization, refining, and conditioning ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinetik makes money by charging fees under contracts for midstream services and by marketing/selling certain hydrocarbons and byproducts associated with those services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Natural gas gathering and related f...
Kinetik Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a confident and constructive tone: management reported record Q1 adjusted EBITDA, strong cash generation, meaningful commercial contract amendments, regulatory approvals and tangible progress on capital projects (King’s Landing AGI/sour conversion, ECCC pipeline, power interconnections). These positives are balanced against significant short‑term headwinds from extreme Waha price dislocation and materially higher-than-expected gas curtailments that reduced near‑term volume growth assumptions. Management has offset much of the near-term revenue impact through marketing spreads, hedges, and additional Gulf Coast exposure, affirmed full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and emphasized structural long‑term tailwinds (new egress capacity, LNG contract, commercial momentum). Given the record results, balance‑sheet strength, project and contract progress and management’s articulated plans to mitigate Waha risk — despite meaningful short‑term volume and price challenges — the overall tone is constructive and resilient.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Negative Updates
Severe Waha Pricing Dislocation
Waha hub experienced extreme weakness: March–April daily average was negative $4.81/MMBtu. For much of spring and into October forward curves show Waha remaining negative, creating volatile local pricing and operational challenges for producers and midstream.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kinetik affirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $950 million–$1.05 billion after reporting a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $251 million, distributable cash flow of $181 million and free cash flow of $101 million; Q1 Midstream Logistics adj. EBITDA was $179 million (+12% YoY) and Pipeline Transportation was $78 million. Management now expects processed gas volumes to grow only low- to mid-single-digit % year‑over‑year (versus prior high‑single‑digit guidance), reflecting roughly 220 MMcf/d of average 2026 curtailments (up about 120 MMcf/d from prior assumptions) on a current processed gas base of ~1.8 Bcf/d — a temporary deferral that increases PDP entering 2027 — while roughly 75% of legacy Durango volumes have been amended. Offsets include wider Waha-to-Houston spreads (≈50% of transport spread exposure hedged for 2026), commodity hedges of ~75% for propane/butane and ~85% for crude/C5+, and an estimated ~$20 million uplift to 2026 adjusted EBITDA at current forwards (ex‑Gulf Coast marketing spread). They reiterated the expected quarterly cadence (Q1–Q2 ~$230–$240M; Q3–Q4 ~$260–$270M), kept 2026 CapEx at $450M–$510M (Q1 CapEx $91M) with spend evenly weighted thereafter, finished the quarter at 3.9x leverage with ample revolver capacity, and pointed to operational milestones and capacity adds (ECCC in‑service later this quarter; King’s Landing TAG operational capacity 26.5 MMcf/d with >31 MMcf/d permitted and AGI/TAG 20 MMcf/d; sour conversion on track for year‑end 2026) plus >5 Bcf/d new takeaway by early 2027 and ~6 Bcf/d more in 2028–29.Kinetik Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.76B | 1.48B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 662.04M |
| Gross Profit | 422.80M | 324.39M | 538.11M | 459.70M | 411.63M | 184.87M |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 1.19B | 801.26M | 634.19M | 653.37M | 350.90M |
| Net Income | 228.06M | 178.26M | 244.23M | 386.45M | 135.52M | 1.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.11B | 7.27B | 6.81B | 6.50B | 5.92B | 3.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 720.00K | 3.95M | 3.61M | 4.51M | 6.39M | 18.73M |
| Total Debt | 3.89B | 3.87B | 3.53B | 3.60B | 3.40B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.27B | 4.34B | 3.84B | 3.87B | 3.65B | 2.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.67B | -565.38M | -2.98B | -530.82M | -839.77M | 10.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 346.72M | 74.45M | 361.47M | 254.93M | 391.43M | 152.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 607.72M | 604.12M | 637.35M | 584.48M | 613.01M | 235.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.09M | -199.09M | -176.89M | -686.32M | -286.13M | -99.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -587.76M | -404.68M | -461.36M | 99.96M | -339.21M | -136.81M |
Kinetik Technical Analysis
Positive
46.67
Price Trends
47.89
Positive
46.13
Positive
41.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
62.38
Neutral
88.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.61, below the 50-day MA of 47.89, and above the 200-day MA of 41.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KNTK.
Kinetik Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $15.38B | 33.13 | 9.82% | 2.70% | 22.22% | 23.30% | |
76 Outperform | $7.77B | 13.03 | 64.33% | 8.45% | 7.06% | 13.61% | |
72 Outperform | $11.01B | 26.97 | 20.38% | 4.98% | 8.14% | -0.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $2.70B | 16.06 | 1917.10% | 9.78% | 13.04% | 6.21% | |
60 Neutral | $8.32B | 19.69 | -16.36% | 8.77% | -1.05% | 160.44% | |
55 Neutral | $1.77B | 49.96 | 16.91% | 4.14% | -35.30% | 88.99% |
* Energy Sector Average
KNTK
Kinetik
49.75
8.88
21.71%
GEL
Genesis Energy
14.11
-2.42
-14.65%
DKL
Delek Logistics
50.76
11.60
29.64%
AM
Antero Midstream
23.19
5.13
28.40%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
37.67
2.21
6.22%
DTM
DT Midstream
150.74
43.77
40.92%
Kinetik Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kinetik Adds Veteran Energy Executive to Board of Directors
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Kinetik Holdings Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from ten to eleven members and appointed veteran energy executive Craig Harris as a non-employee, non-affiliate director, effective immediately. Harris, who brings more than 3...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kinetik Stockholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its annual meeting held on May 19, 2026, Kinetik Holding Inc. stockholders elected ten directors, including Deborah L. Byers and Jamie Welch, to serve one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, with each nominee receiving strong majority...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kinetik Amends and Extends Receivables Securitization Facility
Positive
Apr 3, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Kinetik Holdings LP amended its accounts receivable securitization facility, extending the scheduled termination date of the program to March 30, 2027 and maintaining PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.