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Kinetik (KNTK)
NYSE:KNTK
US Market
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Kinetik (KNTK) AI Stock Analysis

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KNTK

Kinetik

(NYSE:KNTK)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(3.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
KNTK scores moderately positive, led by strong recent profitability/cash generation and a constructive earnings call that reaffirmed 2026 guidance. The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and sizable debt) and only mixed near-term technical momentum, while valuation is supported by a high dividend but tempered by a mid-range P/E.
Positive Factors
High EBITDA & net margins
Sustained, very high EBITDA and strong net margins indicate durable operating leverage in Kinetik’s integrated midstream model. High margins support reinvestment, servicing of obligations and dividend capacity, making earnings more resilient across commodity cycles and funding growth projects.
Negative Factors
Negative equity; rising debt
Negative equity and a sizable, rising debt stock create elevated financial risk and limit flexibility. In adverse market conditions this weak capital cushion increases refinancing and covenant pressure, constrains opportunistic investment and reduces the company’s margin for unexpected operational setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High EBITDA & net margins
Sustained, very high EBITDA and strong net margins indicate durable operating leverage in Kinetik’s integrated midstream model. High margins support reinvestment, servicing of obligations and dividend capacity, making earnings more resilient across commodity cycles and funding growth projects.
Read all positive factors

Kinetik (KNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kinetik Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Kinetik Holdings Inc. functions as a midstream energy enterprise, primarily operating within the Texas Delaware Basin. It delivers a comprehensive array of services, including the collection, conveyance, pressurization, refining, and conditioning ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinetik makes money by charging fees under contracts for midstream services and by marketing/selling certain hydrocarbons and byproducts associated with those services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Natural gas gathering and related f...

Kinetik Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a confident and constructive tone: management reported record Q1 adjusted EBITDA, strong cash generation, meaningful commercial contract amendments, regulatory approvals and tangible progress on capital projects (King’s Landing AGI/sour conversion, ECCC pipeline, power interconnections). These positives are balanced against significant short‑term headwinds from extreme Waha price dislocation and materially higher-than-expected gas curtailments that reduced near‑term volume growth assumptions. Management has offset much of the near-term revenue impact through marketing spreads, hedges, and additional Gulf Coast exposure, affirmed full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and emphasized structural long‑term tailwinds (new egress capacity, LNG contract, commercial momentum). Given the record results, balance‑sheet strength, project and contract progress and management’s articulated plans to mitigate Waha risk — despite meaningful short‑term volume and price challenges — the overall tone is constructive and resilient.
Positive Updates
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Negative Updates
Severe Waha Pricing Dislocation
Waha hub experienced extreme weakness: March–April daily average was negative $4.81/MMBtu. For much of spring and into October forward curves show Waha remaining negative, creating volatile local pricing and operational challenges for producers and midstream.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Cash Generation
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $251 million (above the high end of prior range). Distributable cash flow was $181 million and free cash flow was $101 million, demonstrating strong cash generation and liquidity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kinetik affirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $950 million–$1.05 billion after reporting a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $251 million, distributable cash flow of $181 million and free cash flow of $101 million; Q1 Midstream Logistics adj. EBITDA was $179 million (+12% YoY) and Pipeline Transportation was $78 million. Management now expects processed gas volumes to grow only low- to mid-single-digit % year‑over‑year (versus prior high‑single‑digit guidance), reflecting roughly 220 MMcf/d of average 2026 curtailments (up about 120 MMcf/d from prior assumptions) on a current processed gas base of ~1.8 Bcf/d — a temporary deferral that increases PDP entering 2027 — while roughly 75% of legacy Durango volumes have been amended. Offsets include wider Waha-to-Houston spreads (≈50% of transport spread exposure hedged for 2026), commodity hedges of ~75% for propane/butane and ~85% for crude/C5+, and an estimated ~$20 million uplift to 2026 adjusted EBITDA at current forwards (ex‑Gulf Coast marketing spread). They reiterated the expected quarterly cadence (Q1–Q2 ~$230–$240M; Q3–Q4 ~$260–$270M), kept 2026 CapEx at $450M–$510M (Q1 CapEx $91M) with spend evenly weighted thereafter, finished the quarter at 3.9x leverage with ample revolver capacity, and pointed to operational milestones and capacity adds (ECCC in‑service later this quarter; King’s Landing TAG operational capacity 26.5 MMcf/d with >31 MMcf/d permitted and AGI/TAG 20 MMcf/d; sour conversion on track for year‑end 2026) plus >5 Bcf/d new takeaway by early 2027 and ~6 Bcf/d more in 2028–29.

Kinetik Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong income statement and generally positive operating cash flow support the business (high EBITDA margins and solid recent profitability; operating cash flow consistently positive). However, the balance sheet is a major risk factor with negative equity across most periods and rising total debt, which materially weakens financial flexibility despite good recent results.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.89B1.76B1.48B1.26B1.21B662.04M
Gross Profit755.56M595.80M538.11M459.70M411.63M184.87M
EBITDA1.47B1.18B801.26M634.19M653.37M350.90M
Net Income476.66M525.93M244.23M386.45M135.52M1.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.20B7.27B6.81B6.50B5.92B3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.83M3.95M3.61M4.51M6.39M18.73M
Total Debt3.98B3.87B3.53B3.60B3.40B2.37B
Total Liabilities4.29B4.34B3.84B3.87B3.65B2.55B
Stockholders Equity-1.19B-565.38M-2.98B-530.82M-839.77M10.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow194.17M74.45M361.47M254.93M391.43M152.86M
Operating Cash Flow639.73M604.12M637.35M584.48M613.01M235.57M
Investing Cash Flow-11.73M-199.09M-176.89M-686.32M-286.13M-99.62M
Financing Cash Flow-630.91M-404.68M-461.36M99.96M-339.21M-136.81M

Kinetik Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price50.43
Price Trends
50DMA
47.82
Positive
100DMA
47.38
Positive
200DMA
42.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Positive
RSI
58.65
Neutral
STOCH
69.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.77, above the 50-day MA of 47.82, and above the 200-day MA of 42.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KNTK.

Kinetik Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$8.37B13.9869.02%7.47%2.78%7.61%
74
Outperform
$10.41B26.1220.19%3.96%7.19%-11.58%
70
Outperform
$13.69B29.179.87%2.33%18.12%22.38%
69
Neutral
$3.15B20.66-935.80%7.85%30.33%-2.37%
66
Neutral
$8.05B18.32-23.32%6.37%10.46%281.46%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
57
Neutral
$1.90B78.0231.10%4.59%-17.25%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KNTK
Kinetik
51.11
12.09
30.98%
GEL
Genesis Energy
15.49
-0.43
-2.73%
DKL
Delek Logistics
58.52
19.45
49.77%
AM
Antero Midstream
22.10
4.65
26.63%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
40.54
2.12
5.51%
DTM
DT Midstream
134.78
34.17
33.97%

Kinetik Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kinetik Adds Veteran Energy Executive to Board of Directors
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Kinetik Holdings Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from ten to eleven members and appointed veteran energy executive Craig Harris as a non-employee, non-affiliate director, effective immediately. Harris, who brings more than 3...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kinetik Stockholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its annual meeting held on May 19, 2026, Kinetik Holding Inc. stockholders elected ten directors, including Deborah L. Byers and Jamie Welch, to serve one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, with each nominee receiving strong majority...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026