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Kinetik (KNTK)
NYSE:KNTK
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Kinetik
(NYSE:KNTK)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▼(-12.01% Downside)
Kinetik's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance, which is constrained by high leverage and declining margins. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest overvaluation despite a high dividend yield. The earnings call provided a balanced view of strategic successes and operational challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Steady revenue growth indicates a strong market position and effective business model, supporting long-term financial health and expansion potential.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnerships enhance market reach and operational capabilities, providing opportunities for collaborative growth and increased revenue streams.
Cash Flow Management
Strong cash flow management ensures liquidity and financial flexibility, enabling investment in growth initiatives and resilience against market fluctuations.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth and weather economic downturns.
Declining Margins
Declining margins can erode profitability and shareholder value, challenging the company's ability to sustain growth and competitive positioning.
Commodity Price Volatility
Commodity price volatility can impact revenue and profitability, creating uncertainty and challenging the company's ability to forecast and plan effectively.
Kinetik (KNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.07B
Dividend Yield8.77%
Average Volume (3M)989.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)92.5
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth15.00%
EPS Growth-84.96%
CountryUS
Employees460
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding64,027,440
10 Day Avg. Volume935,552
30 Day Avg. Volume989,840
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)-1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)2.27
P/FCF Ratio9.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside16.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.17B
Kinetik Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKinetik Holdings Inc. operates as a midstream company in the Texas Delaware Basin. It provides gathering, transportation, compression, processing, and treating services for companies that produce natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and water. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinetik generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its consumer-facing products such as fitness trackers and associated applications. The company also earns money through subscription services that provide users with access to personalized training plans, health analytics, and premium content. Additionally, Kinetik has established partnerships with gyms and fitness influencers, which help promote its products and services, further driving sales. These collaborations often include revenue-sharing agreements that contribute to the overall earnings of the company.
Kinetik Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strategic achievements, such as the successful initiation of Kings Landing and new partnerships, alongside significant challenges posed by delayed projects, commodity price volatility, and production curtailments. The call acknowledged past missteps and emphasized a commitment to improved forecasting and cost control.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Kings Landing Project Success
Kings Landing reached full commercial service in September, adding over 100 million cubic feet per day of processing capacity in New Mexico, in line with original expectations.
ECCC Pipeline Progress
Significant construction progress on the ECCC pipeline, expected to be in service during Q2 2026, connecting Delaware North to Delaware South systems.
Strategic Partnership with CPV
Finalized an agreement with Competitive Power Ventures to connect Kinetik's pipeline network to the 1,350-megawatt CPV Basin Ranch Energy Center in Texas at no capital cost.
European LNG Pricing Agreement
Executed a 5-year LNG pricing agreement with INEOS at Port Arthur LNG, starting in early 2027, providing customers with exposure to European TTF index pricing.
Asset Sale Proceeds
Received over $500 million from the EPIC Crude sale, reducing leverage ratio by 1/4 of a ton.
Negative Updates
Delayed King's Landing Start-Up
King's Landing's full commercial in-service was slower than anticipated, reducing full-year earnings by approximately $20 million.
Commodity Price Volatility
Sustained volatility led to a 12% decline in commodity prices from the original February assumptions, impacting full-year EBITDA by nearly $30 million.
Production Curtailments
Approximately 20% of volumes were curtailed in October, impacting full-year earnings by about $20 million.
Decreased EBITDA Guidance
Revised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $965 million to $1.005 billion, down from previous expectations.
Midstream Logistics Segment Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for the Midstream Logistics segment was down 13% year-over-year, due to lower commodity prices and higher operating expenses.
Company Guidance
During Kinetik's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance and outlined several strategic initiatives. Kinetik revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $965 million to $1.005 billion, citing factors such as delayed start-up of Kings Landing, sustained commodity price volatility, and producer curtailments. The company highlighted that Kings Landing, now fully operational, is flowing over 100 million cubic feet per day, aligning with expectations. Kinetik also discussed its acid gas injection project at Kings Landing, expected to be operational by late 2026, and its strategic move to secure a 5-year LNG pricing agreement with INEOS for 2027, based on the European TTF index. Additionally, Kinetik secured additional firm transport capacity to the U.S. Gulf Coast starting in 2028 to enhance market access. The company emphasized its commitment to disciplined execution, forecasting improvements, and advancing strategic projects such as the ECCC pipeline and collaborations in power generation, positioning itself for long-term growth in the Permian Basin.Kinetik Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Kinetik shows strong cash flow management and operational efficiency, with a solid cash flow performance. However, the company faces significant challenges with high leverage and declining net profit margins, which impact financial stability and shareholder returns.Income Statement
Kinetik's revenue growth has been steady, with a 4.1% increase in the TTM period. However, margins have declined compared to the previous year, with the net profit margin dropping from 16.5% to 3.7%. The company maintains a reasonable EBIT margin of 22.7% and an EBITDA margin of 44.6%, indicating operational efficiency despite the lower net income.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows significant leverage, with a negative equity position and a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.00 in the TTM period. This high leverage poses a risk, although the company has managed to maintain its operations. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the challenges in generating returns for shareholders.40
Negative
Cash Flow
Kinetik's cash flow performance is strong, with a 7.7% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.51 indicates good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests efficient cash utilization.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.72B | 1.48B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 662.04M | 410.18M |
| Gross Profit | 583.58M | 538.11M | 459.70M | 411.63M | 184.87M | 121.36M |
| EBITDA | 725.73M | 801.26M | 634.19M | 653.37M | 350.90M | -807.46M |
| Net Income | 125.45M | 244.23M | 386.45M | 135.52M | 1.48M | -1.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.20B | 6.81B | 6.50B | 5.92B | 3.55B | 3.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.74M | 3.61M | 4.51M | 6.39M | 18.73M | 19.59M |
| Total Debt | 4.22B | 3.53B | 3.60B | 3.40B | 2.37B | 2.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.58B | 3.84B | 3.87B | 3.65B | 2.55B | 2.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.78B | -2.98B | -530.82M | -839.77M | 10.00K | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 353.87M | 361.47M | 254.93M | 391.43M | 152.86M | -96.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 638.02M | 637.35M | 584.48M | 613.01M | 235.57M | 102.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -673.91M | -176.89M | -686.32M | -286.13M | -99.62M | -505.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 23.19M | -461.36M | 99.96M | -339.21M | -136.81M | 372.77M |
Kinetik Technical Analysis
Positive
38.64
Price Trends
35.31
Positive
37.60
Positive
39.51
Negative
Market Momentum
0.59
Negative
67.24
Neutral
83.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.05, above the 50-day MA of 35.31, and below the 200-day MA of 39.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KNTK.
Kinetik Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $11.90B | 29.67 | 9.04% | 2.70% | 20.39% | -3.85% | |
77 Outperform | $7.25B | 12.40 | 59.81% | 8.45% | 10.78% | 19.10% | |
74 Outperform | $8.50B | 18.28 | 22.52% | 4.98% | 8.70% | 21.42% | |
66 Neutral | $2.59B | 15.67 | ― | 9.78% | -1.78% | 9.32% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
52 Neutral | $6.07B | 92.53 | ― | 8.77% | 15.00% | -84.96% | |
49 Neutral | $2.08B | -13.34 | -11.88% | 4.14% | -36.47% | -75.37% |
* Energy Sector Average
KNTK
Kinetik
38.64
-23.45
-37.77%
GEL
Genesis Energy
17.15
7.16
71.67%
DKL
Delek Logistics
47.76
7.03
17.26%
AM
Antero Midstream
18.29
2.46
15.54%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
34.97
-3.09
-8.12%
DTM
DT Midstream
120.44
10.14
9.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.