Antero Midstream (AM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.92B
• Dividend Yield: 4.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 8.70%
• EPS Growth: 21.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 616
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 473,081,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,761,109
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,979,319
• PEG Ratio: 5.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.28
• 1Y Price Target: $20.75
• Price Target Upside: -4.38% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.27B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(10.60% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (durable profitability and robust cash generation) and a favorable earnings outlook with rising EBITDA/free cash flow guidance. Offsetting factors are leveraged balance sheet risk, a less compelling valuation (P/E ~24.5), and technically overbought signals that increase near-term volatility risk despite the uptrend.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistent, high operating cash flow (≈$932M in 2025) and positive free cash flow across years underpin durable financial flexibility. This cash generation funds the dividend, buybacks, capex and debt reduction, covers interest by ~6–8x, and supports multi-year capital returns and deleveraging plans.

Consistent EBITDA growth and margins

Eleven consecutive years of EBITDA growth and 7% y/y in 2025 reflect durable operating performance tied to fee-based midstream contracts. Combined with mid-30% net margins, this consistency indicates resilient cash flows from contracted services and favorable operating leverage over multi-year cycles.

Acquisition expands low-capex growth optionality

The $1.1B HG Mid deal adds >400 undeveloped locations and Marcellus footprint expansion, providing structural growth optionality. Management highlights water integration with modest incremental capital, improving midstream optionality and multi-year throughput upside without large recurring capex commitments.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Balance sheet leverage is meaningful and rising (debt/equity ~1.3–1.6; peak ~1.63 in 2025), constraining financial flexibility. Higher leverage limits capacity for opportunistic investments, increases sensitivity to commodity/volume shocks, and elevates refinancing and rating risks over the medium term.

Customer concentration / operator dependence

A significant portion of volumes and growth depends on Antero Resources' multi‑rig development plan. This customer/operator concentration links AM’s throughput and revenue realization to a single upstream operator's drilling cadence and capital choices, reducing independent visibility and increasing execution risk.

M&A integration and timing risk

Projected benefits from HG Mid and water asset integration depend on timely execution. Integration delays or higher-than-expected costs could defer EBITDA and free cash flow accretion, temporarily push leverage higher, and require incremental capex or operating adjustments over the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Antero Midstream Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy infrastructure. It operates through Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling segments. The Gathering and Processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collects and processes production from Antero Resources' wells in West Virginia and Ohio. The Water Handling segment delivers fresh water; and offers pumping stations, water storage, and blending facilities. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Antero Midstream makes money through a variety of revenue streams centered around its midstream services. The company earns revenue primarily from long-term, fixed-fee contracts with Antero Resources, which provide stable cash flows and mitigate commodity price exposure. Key revenue streams include gathering and compression fees, which are charged for transporting natural gas from production sites to processing facilities. Additionally, Antero Midstream generates income from water handling services, including the delivery and treatment of water used in hydraulic fracturing. The company's strategic partnerships and infrastructure investments further enhance its ability to meet the growing demand for midstream services in the Appalachian region, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Antero Midstream Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong, consistent profitability and very solid cash generation (positive free cash flow across all years; operating cash flow coverage of interest ~6–8x). Offsetting factors are meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.3–1.6 and rising) with declining equity, plus slowing/negative revenue growth in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and consistent post-2020, with net margins holding around the mid-30% range (2021–2025 annual) and solid EBITDA margins in most years. Net income has grown steadily from 2021 through 2025. The main weakness is growth momentum: revenue growth slowed and turned negative in 2025 (-4.9% vs. modest growth in 2024 and stronger growth in 2023). Some margin fields look inconsistent in 2025 (e.g., gross profit shown as 0), so the score leans more on EBIT/EBITDA and net income trends.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~1.3–1.6 range (highest in 2025 at ~1.63). Returns on equity are healthy (mid-teens to ~21% in 2025), indicating good earnings power on the equity base. Offsetting that, equity has trended down since 2020 while debt remains elevated, which reduces flexibility if industry conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: operating cash flow is consistently high and improved to ~$932M in 2025, and free cash flow is positive across all years shown. Cash flow also appears conservative relative to financing needs, with operating cash flow covering interest expense by ~6–8x each year. Weaknesses include volatility in free cash flow growth (notably a sharp drop in 2022 and a decline again in 2025), suggesting timing/capex or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.18B	1.11B	990.66M	968.87M
Gross Profit	822.21M	748.22M	692.55M	607.97M	632.29M
EBITDA	937.26M	966.32M	924.05M	836.12M	803.48M
Net Income	413.16M	400.89M	371.79M	326.24M	331.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.88B	5.88B	5.74B	5.79B	5.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	180.44M	0.00	66.00K	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	3.22B	3.12B	3.21B	3.36B	3.12B
Total Liabilities	3.91B	3.77B	3.59B	3.60B	3.26B
Stockholders Equity	1.97B	2.12B	2.15B	2.19B	2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	770.21M	601.65M	595.06M	183.95M	476.93M
Operating Cash Flow	932.46M	843.99M	779.06M	699.60M	709.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-169.21M	-242.73M	-183.21M	-493.83M	-233.24M
Financing Cash Flow	-500.32M	-601.33M	-595.79M	-205.78M	-477.15M

Antero Midstream Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.82, above the 50-day MA of 18.51, and above the 200-day MA of 17.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AM.

Antero Midstream Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HESM	79 Outperform	$7.76B	13.07	―	8.45%	10.78%	19.10%
PAA	78 Outperform	$14.51B	12.39	12.03%	8.54%	-7.53%	9.74%
DTM	75 Outperform	$13.57B	33.84	9.42%	2.70%	20.39%	-3.85%
AM	74 Outperform	$9.92B	24.51	20.22%	4.98%	8.70%	21.42%
WES	74 Outperform	$17.91B	14.75	31.82%	9.13%	5.81%	-13.58%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KNTK	52 Neutral	$7.20B	109.79	―	8.77%	15.00%	-84.96%

Antero Midstream Corporate Events

Antero Midstream Sells Utica Shale Midstream Assets for Cash

On February 23, 2026, Antero Midstream’s wholly owned subsidiaries completed the previously announced sale of substantially all of their Utica Shale midstream assets to an affiliate of Infinity Natural Resources and Northern Oil and Gas for $400 million in cash, subject to customary post-closing and effective-date adjustments. The divestiture marks a significant reshaping of Antero Midstream’s asset base in the Utica region, potentially freeing capital for other strategic priorities while shifting operational exposure away from these specific midstream assets for both the company and its stakeholders.

The transaction, first agreed on December 5, 2025, transfers a large portion of Antero Midstream’s Utica Shale infrastructure to the buyers, aligning Infinity Natural Resources and Northern Oil and Gas more deeply with the basin’s midstream value chain and potentially altering competitive dynamics in that regional market. For Antero Midstream, the sale could influence future capital allocation, regional focus and partnership structures, while counterparties gain expanded midstream capabilities tied to Utica production and development activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.

Antero Midstream amends terms of asset purchase agreement

On December 22, 2025, Antero Midstream and the other parties to a previously executed purchase agreement entered into a First Amendment to that agreement, revising and restating certain annexes. The amendment indicates a contractual adjustment to the terms or details contained in the annexes of the original purchase agreement, suggesting refinements to the structure or conditions of the underlying transaction, though the specific operational or financial implications for stakeholders were not disclosed in the release.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Sell with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.

Antero Midstream Shifts Capital Structure With New Notes

Antero Midstream announced that, in connection with the issuance of its Notes, it has terminated all remaining commitments under previously arranged debt financing facilities that had been provided by Royal Bank of Canada, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, their affiliates and other lending parties to Antero Midstream Partners. The move indicates a shift in the company’s capital structure toward the newly issued Notes and away from the prior committed debt financing, which may streamline its funding sources and alter its banking relationships and liquidity profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.

Antero Midstream Prices $600M Senior Notes Offering

On December 9, 2025, Antero Midstream Corporation announced the pricing of its upsized private placement of $600 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034, with the offering expected to close on December 23, 2025. The company plans to use the net proceeds, along with other financial resources, to fund the acquisition of HG Energy II Midstream Holdings, LLC. The completion of this offering is not dependent on the acquisition or the disposition of Antero Midstream’s Utica Shale midstream assets, though certain conditions could trigger a mandatory redemption of the notes if the acquisition does not close by the specified dates.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Sell with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.

Antero Midstream Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On December 9, 2025, Antero Midstream Corporation announced the intention of its subsidiaries to commence a private offering of $500 million in senior notes due 2034. The proceeds from this offering, along with funds from a revolving credit facility and the sale of Utica Shale midstream assets, are intended to finance the acquisition of HG Energy II Midstream Holdings, LLC. The offering and acquisition are not contingent on each other, and if the acquisition does not close by the specified date, the company will redeem the notes at their initial issue price.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Sell with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.

Antero Midstream Acquires HG Energy II for $1.1B

On December 5, 2025, Antero Midstream Partners LP, a subsidiary of Antero Midstream Corporation, entered into an agreement to acquire HG Energy II Midstream Holdings, LLC for $1.1 billion in cash. Concurrently, Antero Resources Corporation agreed to purchase HG Energy II Production Holdings, LLC for $2.8 billion. The acquisitions, expected to close in the first half of 2026, aim to enhance Antero Midstream’s asset base in the Marcellus Shale. Additionally, Antero Midstream plans to divest its Ohio Utica Shale assets for $400 million, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. These strategic transactions are anticipated to be accretive to free cash flow and improve the company’s leverage profile, positioning it for further debt reduction and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AM) stock is a Sell with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Midstream stock, see the AM Stock Forecast page.