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Antero Midstream Corp (AM)
:AM
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Antero Midstream
(NYSE:AM)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow after dividend exceeded expectations by 34.2%.
Processing Volumes
Gross MPLX processing volumes were 2.2% higher than anticipated.
Share Buybacks
Buybacks are expected to provide support for the shares starting in Q4.
Negative Factors
Estimates Revision
Lowering 2024-2025 estimates due to lower assumed water volumes in Q4 and deferral of a second pad from early 2025 to later in the year.
Financial Results
There was a modest shortfall in financial results versus consensus.
Growth Projections
Q3 missed and a 2nd pad deferral by AR further moderates 2025 growth (low-single-digit %).
Antero Midstream (AM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.73B
Dividend Yield4.97%
Average Volume (3M)2.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth7.09%
EPS Growth17.53%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding478,501,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,177,028
30 Day Avg. Volume2,730,136
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.17Price Target Upside-0.44% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
Antero Midstream Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Midstream Corporation (AM) is a leading midstream energy company primarily focused on providing integrated and customized midstream services to its customers in the Appalachian Basin. The company operates in the midstream sector and offers services such as natural gas gathering and compression, processing, fractionation, and water handling and treatment. Antero Midstream plays a crucial role in supporting the upstream operations of its affiliate, Antero Resources Corporation, by ensuring efficient transportation and processing of hydrocarbons from production sites to end markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Midstream makes money through a variety of revenue streams centered around its midstream services. The company earns revenue primarily from long-term, fixed-fee contracts with Antero Resources, which provide stable cash flows and mitigate commodity price exposure. Key revenue streams include gathering and compression fees, which are charged for transporting natural gas from production sites to processing facilities. Additionally, Antero Midstream generates income from water handling services, including the delivery and treatment of water used in hydraulic fracturing. The company's strategic partnerships and infrastructure investments further enhance its ability to meet the growing demand for midstream services in the Appalachian region, thereby contributing to its earnings.
Antero Midstream Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Antero Midstream was predominantly positive, with significant growth in EBITDA and free cash flow, a favorable tax position, and successful debt reduction efforts. The main challenge mentioned was the ongoing legal issue concerning the Clearwater Facility, but it did not significantly overshadow the strong financial performance and strategic achievements.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record EBITDA Growth
Antero Midstream reported $284 million of EBITDA for the second quarter, an 11% year-over-year increase driven by record gathering and processing volumes.
Significant Free Cash Flow Increase
Free cash flow after dividends reached $82 million, marking an almost 90% increase compared to last year.
Debt Reduction and Improved Leverage
The company reduced its leverage to 2.8x, utilizing free cash flow for share repurchases and debt reduction.
Increased 2025 Guidance
Antero Midstream increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million and lowered the capital budget range by $5 million.
Reuse Savings Exceeding Expectations
The compression reuse program has realized over $50 million in savings, with future savings estimates increased to over $85 million.
Favorable Tax Position
The company expects no material cash tax payments through at least 2028 due to the recently passed budget reconciliation bill.
Negative Updates
Clearwater Facility Lawsuit
Ongoing legal proceedings with no update on the timeline, awaiting a decision from the Colorado Supreme Court.
Company Guidance
During Antero Midstream's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided significant updates on its financial performance and future guidance. In the second quarter, Antero Midstream reported an EBITDA of $284 million, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by record-setting gathering and processing volumes. The company's free cash flow after dividends surged by almost 90% compared to the previous year, reaching $82 million. This allowed for strategic share repurchases and debt reduction, bringing leverage down to 2.8x as of June 30. Furthermore, Antero Midstream increased its 2025 free cash flow guidance by $25 million at the midpoint, attributed to a $10 million rise in adjusted EBITDA and a $5 million reduction in the capital budget. The company also benefited from lower interest expenses by $5 million and anticipates reduced cash income taxes, projecting no material cash tax liability through at least 2028 due to favorable legislative changes. Additionally, Antero Midstream highlighted its strategic positioning to capitalize on LNG and Northeast demand growth, emphasizing its role in connecting low-cost production to premium-priced LNG markets while maintaining optionality for local market connections.Antero Midstream Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Midstream exhibits strong profitability and cash generation with stable margins and substantial free cash flow growth. Although revenue growth is minimal and leverage is high, the company effectively utilizes equity to generate returns. The financial position is stable, but attention to debt levels is warranted.Income Statement
Antero Midstream shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin reaching 100% in the latest year. The net profit margin improved to 36.24%, indicating efficient cost management. Revenue experienced a slight decline of 0.56% from the previous year, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 59.61%. Overall, profitability metrics are robust, though revenue growth is stagnant.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 1.47, indicating significant leverage. However, return on equity improved to 18.95%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 36.71%, suggesting moderate financial stability. While leverage is a concern, profitability offsets some risks.77
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow grew by 41.86% over the past year, demonstrating strong cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.10, indicating substantial cash inflows relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.11, reflecting solid free cash flow relative to earnings. Overall, cash flow metrics highlight strong liquidity and cash generation capabilities.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.11B | 990.66M | 968.87M | 971.39M |
| Gross Profit | 794.91M | 748.22M | 692.55M | 607.97M | 632.29M | 626.54M |
| EBITDA | 1.02B | 966.32M | 924.05M | 836.12M | 803.48M | 148.25M |
| Net Income | 456.18M | 400.89M | 371.79M | 326.24M | 331.62M | -122.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.73B | 5.76B | 5.74B | 5.79B | 5.54B | 5.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | 640.00K |
| Total Debt | 3.02B | 3.12B | 3.21B | 3.36B | 3.12B | 3.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.64B | 3.65B | 3.59B | 3.60B | 3.26B | 3.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.09B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 2.19B | 2.29B | 2.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 929.70M | 601.65M | 595.06M | 183.95M | 476.93M | 595.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 881.75M | 843.99M | 779.06M | 699.60M | 709.75M | 753.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -166.65M | -242.73M | -183.21M | -493.83M | -233.24M | -219.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -715.11M | -601.33M | -595.79M | -205.78M | -477.15M | -534.75M |
Antero Midstream Technical Analysis
Positive
18.25
Price Trends
17.78
Positive
17.78
Positive
16.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
55.43
Neutral
85.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.88, above the 50-day MA of 17.78, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AM.
Antero Midstream Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $8.56B | 15.13 | 52.91% | 7.07% | 9.02% | 17.28% | |
78 Outperform | $8.73B | 19.41 | 21.65% | 4.97% | 7.09% | 17.53% | |
77 Outperform | $14.51B | 11.71 | 38.42% | 9.41% | 7.11% | -16.14% | |
69 Neutral | $10.69B | 28.30 | 8.48% | 2.95% | 15.28% | -9.99% | |
68 Neutral | $12.11B | 19.04 | 8.34% | 8.46% | -4.31% | -17.80% | |
65 Neutral | $15.01B | 7.48 | 3.39% | 5.36% | 4.10% | -61.80% | |
57 Neutral | $6.79B | 57.98 | -8.21% | 7.51% | 16.09% | -71.69% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AM
Antero Midstream
18.10
4.69
34.97%
PAA
Plains All American
17.16
1.24
7.79%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
37.94
3.62
10.55%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
40.05
7.13
21.66%
KNTK
Kinetik
41.95
1.06
2.59%
DTM
DT Midstream
104.53
32.29
44.70%
Antero Midstream Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Antero Midstream Declares Dividend and Plans Earnings Release
Positive
Jan 14, 2025
On January 14, 2025, Antero Midstream Corporation announced a cash dividend of $0.225 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, payable on February 12, 2025. The company also repurchased approximately 1.9 million shares worth around $28.7 million during the same quarter, leaving $471 million of share repurchase capacity under its $500 million authorized program. Additionally, Antero Midstream plans to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on February 12, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for February 13, 2025, to discuss the financial results.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.