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Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD)
NYSE:GSBD

Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) AI Stock Analysis

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GSBD

Goldman Sachs BDC

(NYSE:GSBD)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
â–²(17.19% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (good profitability/cash conversion and improved leverage), supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around declining NAV and a tight-spread/credit environment.
Positive Factors
Strong Direct Lending Platform
The significant increase in lending activity indicates robust demand and effective execution, enhancing GSBD's market position and revenue potential.
Increase in First-Lien Positions
A higher proportion of first-lien positions strengthens GSBD's portfolio security, reducing risk and potentially improving credit quality.
Robust Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with no debt enhances financial stability, providing flexibility for future investments and growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Revenue Growth
Volatile revenue growth can hinder long-term planning and investment, affecting GSBD's ability to consistently generate returns.
Decrease in Net Asset Value
A decrease in NAV suggests potential challenges in asset valuation and profitability, impacting investor confidence and future capital raising.
Reduced Operating Cash Flow
Reduced cash flow limits GSBD's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and meet financial obligations, posing a risk to long-term sustainability.

Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Goldman Sachs BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in private companies. It seeks to make capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, senior secured debt, junior secured debt, including first lien, first lien/last-out unitranche and second lien debt, unsecured debt, including mezzanine debt and, to a lesser extent, investments in equities. The fund primarily invests in United States. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $75 million in companies with EBITDA between $5 million and $75 million annually.
How the Company Makes MoneyGoldman Sachs BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income from its portfolio of debt investments. The company invests in both secured and unsecured loans, as well as equity investments in middle-market companies. These investments typically carry higher interest rates than traditional bank loans, enabling GSBD to earn substantial interest income. Additionally, GSBD may earn fees related to the structuring, origination, and management of its investment portfolio. The company also benefits from capital gains realized through the sale of equity investments. Partnerships with Goldman Sachs Group provide strategic advantages, including access to a broad range of investment opportunities and a robust risk management framework, which contribute to GSBD's earnings.

Goldman Sachs BDC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant positive developments such as a surge in M&A activity, high investment commitments, and strategic investments, indicating robust performance in a competitive environment. However, challenges such as a decrease in net asset value, tight credit spreads, and some credit concerns were also noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Surge in M&A Activity
Total M&A dollar volumes in Q3 2025 were 40.9% higher year-over-year compared to Q3 2024, benefiting Goldman Sachs BDC with the highest level of new investment commitments and repayments since 2022.
High Investment Commitments
New investment commitments reached approximately $470.6 million across 27 portfolio companies, marking the highest level since Q4 2021.
Strategic Investments
Notable investments included Shields Health Solutions, one of the largest specialty pharmacy operators in the U.S., and Newtek Merchant Solutions, showcasing GSBD's ability to secure significant roles in financing.
Repayment Activity
Increased repayment activity with $374.4 million for the quarter, 86% of which were from pre-2022 investments.
Strong Financial Position
Ending net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17x, below the target leverage of 1.25x, with approximately $1.143 billion of borrowing capacity remaining under the revolving credit facility.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Asset Value
Net asset value per share decreased by 2.1% relative to the second quarter, partially due to special dividend payouts and markdowns on underperforming names.
Tight Spread Environment
Despite increased M&A activity, spreads remain tight across the middle market and large cap, with no significant widening expected soon.
Credit and Nonaccrual Concerns
One new investment was placed on nonaccrual status, though overall nonaccruals decreased slightly to 1.5% of fair value from 1.6%.
Company Guidance
During Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and guidance points were discussed. The company highlighted a significant increase in M&A activity, with Q3 2025 dollar volumes up 40.9% year-over-year, attributed to investor risk-on sentiment, lower borrowing costs, and adjusted valuation expectations. New investment commitments reached $470.6 million across 27 companies, marking the highest level since Q4 2021, with a focus on first lien loans. The company reported a net investment income per share of $0.40 and a net asset value (NAV) per share of $12.75, with a 2.1% decrease from the previous quarter. A special dividend of $0.04 per share was declared, and the net debt-to-equity ratio was 1.17x. The portfolio's weighted average yield at amortized cost was 10.3%, and nonaccrual investments decreased to 1.5% of fair value. The call also emphasized the importance of credit selection in a lower yield environment and the company's position to capitalize on M&A trends, supported by its integration with the Goldman Sachs platform.

Goldman Sachs BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Goldman Sachs BDC demonstrates strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, with notable strengths in equity and no recent debt. However, inconsistent revenue growth and reduced operating cash flow highlight potential challenges.
Income Statement
Goldman Sachs BDC shows strong profitability with a high Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin, indicating efficient cost management and solid earnings. However, the Revenue Growth Rate has been volatile, with a decline in the most recent year, which is a concern.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is robust, with no debt reported in the latest year, leading to a favorable Debt-to-Equity Ratio. The company's equity position is strong, and the Return on Equity is impressive, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow is positive but significantly reduced from previous years, which raises concerns about cash generation. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating challenges in sustaining cash flow levels, although the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio remains reasonable.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue291.45M192.43M454.91M136.10M229.08M186.49M
Gross Profit180.94M78.71M454.91M56.64M170.09M146.59M
EBITDA173.41M68.35M0.0059.70M194.07M177.55M
Net Income133.09M62.87M195.87M55.00M192.43M176.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.39B3.60B3.52B3.59B3.55B3.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments115.18M61.80M52.36M39.60M33.76M32.14M
Total Debt0.001.93B1.83B2.01B1.86B1.63B
Total Liabilities1.93B2.03B1.92B2.09B1.94B1.70B
Stockholders Equity1.45B1.57B1.60B1.50B1.61B1.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow158.46M201.06M186.98M169.20M149.56M246.21M
Operating Cash Flow158.46M201.06M186.98M169.20M149.56M246.21M
Investing Cash Flow210.22M-198.60M113.71M-141.76M-179.42M-80.42M
Financing Cash Flow-306.46M7.15M-287.99M-21.75M31.69M-143.11M

Goldman Sachs BDC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.96
Price Trends
50DMA
9.73
Negative
100DMA
10.04
Negative
200DMA
10.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Positive
RSI
23.39
Positive
STOCH
14.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.62, below the 50-day MA of 9.73, and below the 200-day MA of 10.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.39 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSBD.

Goldman Sachs BDC Risk Analysis

Goldman Sachs BDC disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Goldman Sachs BDC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Goldman Sachs BDC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$1.17B7.0816.18%13.53%33.44%25.22%
68
Neutral
$1.31B14.679.80%11.90%25.28%-1.69%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$909.46M9.758.18%13.18%-26.08%-27.65%
66
Neutral
$954.19M14.185.43%14.17%36.15%-38.59%
65
Neutral
$1.05B8.058.75%17.34%-16.58%65.24%
60
Neutral
$922.95M11.007.03%13.63%-8.23%-35.72%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.96
-1.39
-13.43%
CSWC
Capital Southwest
22.10
2.61
13.39%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
9.07
-0.62
-6.40%
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
12.29
-4.16
-25.29%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
13.54
-1.67
-10.98%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
15.35
2.45
18.99%

Goldman Sachs BDC Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Goldman Sachs BDC Expands Credit Facility and Liquidity
Positive
Dec 22, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. amended its senior secured revolving credit agreement with Truist Bank and other lenders, marking the thirteenth modification to this facility since its original inception in 2013. The amendment raised both the letter of credit sublimit and the swingline sublimit from $150 million to $200 million, enhancing the company’s available liquidity and flexibility to issue letters of credit and access short-term funding, which may strengthen its ability to support portfolio companies and manage its financing needs in a competitive lending environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs BDC Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Goldman Sachs BDC announced its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, reporting a net investment income of $0.40 per share and a decrease in net asset value per share to $12.75. The company declared a fourth quarter base dividend of $0.32 per share and a third quarter supplemental dividend of $0.04 per share, reflecting strategic dividend management amidst a challenging investment environment marked by certain investments on non-accrual status and a slight increase in the net debt-to-equity ratio.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Sell with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs BDC to Announce Q3 Results Soon
Neutral
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. announced it will release its third-quarter financial results for the period ending September 30, 2025, after the market closes on November 6, 2025. The company will also host an earnings conference call on November 7, 2025, to discuss these results, inviting stakeholders to participate via telephone or webcast.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Sell with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025