Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.02B
• Dividend Yield: 17.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -16.58%
• EPS Growth: 65.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 112,569,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,365,662
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,429,864
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.53
• 1Y Price Target: $10.50
• Price Target Upside: 15.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.29
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $328.15M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(10.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and cash flow, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and ongoing financial volatility/leverage sensitivity highlighted in both the statements and the latest call.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow — with FCF tracking net income and a large 2025 uplift — indicates durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks and reinvestment. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports steady shareholder distributions over months.

Improved Portfolio Credit Quality

Substantially higher median EBITDA and near‑full first‑lien exposure materially lower downside risk and potential loss severity. A top‑of‑capital‑structure tilt and stronger underlying cash flows support more stable interest income and fewer credit losses over the medium term.

Origination Scale & Capital Markets Access

Large platform origination capacity and proprietary deal flow provide durable access to new investments and diversification across middle‑market borrowers. Combined with demonstrated debt market execution (revolver draws, $400M note issuance), this supports sustainable deployment and liability management.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

A net debt/equity ratio above 1x leaves earnings and NAV more sensitive to credit stress and funding cost moves. For an externally managed BDC, meaningful leverage can amplify volatility in distributable income and increase refinancing pressure across a 2–6 month horizon.

Yield Compression & NAV/NII Pressure

Compression in portfolio yield directly reduces net investment income given the cost of funding, pressuring distributable earnings and NAV. For a BDC whose revenue is yield‑driven, persistent compression reduces payout coverage and limits room for capital return programs over months.

Credit & Structure Risks (Nonaccruals, Unsecured Debt)

A modest rise in nonaccruals plus a high share of unsecured borrowings raises potential loss severity and refinancing vulnerability in stressed scenarios. This structural mix increases long‑term credit and funding sensitivity, potentially dragging NAV and earnings if stress widens.

Goldman Sachs BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in private companies. It seeks to make capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, senior secured debt, junior secured debt, including first lien, first lien/last-out unitranche and second lien debt, unsecured debt, including mezzanine debt and, to a lesser extent, investments in equities. The fund primarily invests in United States. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $75 million in companies with EBITDA between $5 million and $75 million annually.

How the Company Makes Money

Goldman Sachs BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income from its portfolio of debt investments. The company invests in both secured and unsecured loans, as well as equity investments in middle-market companies. These investments typically carry higher interest rates than traditional bank loans, enabling GSBD to earn substantial interest income. Additionally, GSBD may earn fees related to the structuring, origination, and management of its investment portfolio. The company also benefits from capital gains realized through the sale of equity investments. Partnerships with Goldman Sachs Group provide strategic advantages, including access to a broad range of investment opportunities and a robust risk management framework, which contribute to GSBD's earnings.

Goldman Sachs BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation are solid (high net margins and consistently positive operating/free cash flow, with strong 2025 FCF growth), but results have been volatile year to year and leverage has historically been meaningful. The 2025 statements show abrupt line-item shifts (e.g., debt reported as zero vs. prior years), reducing confidence in comparability.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong with consistently high net profit margins (roughly 33%–94% from 2020–2025), and 2025 revenue rebounded sharply (+25.4% year over year). However, results have been volatile (notably a large revenue decline in 2022 and a sharp swing between 2023 and 2024), and several operating profit line items appear inconsistent/zero in 2025, which reduces confidence in the year-to-year comparability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has generally been meaningful, with debt running around ~1.0x–1.34x equity from 2020–2024, which can amplify earnings volatility in weaker periods. Return on equity has been uneven (low in 2022 and 2024, stronger in 2020–2021 and 2023). The 2025 balance sheet shows zero debt and a much lower debt-to-equity ratio, which would be a major improvement if accurate, but it is a sharp change versus prior years and should be viewed cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear positive: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive each year, and free cash flow closely tracks net income (free cash flow to net income at 1.0 across periods). Cash flow also improved in 2025 with a large jump in free cash flow growth (+105.5%). The main drawback is variability in growth (including a decline in 2021), and one coverage metric is reported as 0.0 in 2025, limiting leverage/cash coverage insight for the most recent year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	365.57M	192.43M	454.91M	136.10M	229.08M
Gross Profit	0.00	78.71M	454.91M	56.64M	170.09M
EBITDA	0.00	68.35M	0.00	59.70M	194.07M
Net Income	181.57M	62.87M	195.87M	55.00M	192.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.38B	3.60B	3.52B	3.59B	3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.21M	61.80M	52.36M	39.60M	33.76M
Total Debt	0.00	1.93B	1.83B	2.01B	1.86B
Total Liabilities	1.96B	2.03B	1.92B	2.09B	1.94B
Stockholders Equity	1.42B	1.57B	1.60B	1.50B	1.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	325.68M	201.06M	186.98M	169.20M	149.56M
Operating Cash Flow	325.68M	201.06M	186.98M	169.20M	149.56M
Investing Cash Flow	210.92M	-198.60M	113.71M	-141.76M	-179.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-344.45M	7.15M	-287.99M	-21.75M	31.69M

Goldman Sachs BDC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.26, below the 50-day MA of 9.35, and below the 200-day MA of 10.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSBD.

Goldman Sachs BDC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSWC	72 Outperform	$1.32B	12.22	11.11%	11.90%	25.28%	-1.69%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.02B	7.95	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
TRIN	66 Neutral	$1.23B	7.56	14.15%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$837.45M	8.47	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
NMFC	61 Neutral	$771.17M	56.17	1.30%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$785.93M	10.97	6.74%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%

Goldman Sachs BDC Corporate Events

Goldman Sachs BDC Posts Q4 Results, Declares Dividends

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026, posting net investment income of $0.37 per share and an 11.7% annualized net investment income yield on book value, while net asset value per share slipped 0.9% to $12.64. The board declared a base dividend of $0.32 per share for the first quarter of 2026 and a $0.03 supplemental dividend tied to fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, alongside modest net investment growth, a higher net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.27x, increased use of payment-in-kind income, and continued non-accrual exposure in nine portfolio companies.

During the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Goldman Sachs BDC committed about $394.9 million in new investments, funded $230.2 million of those commitments, and recorded $251.6 million in sales and repayments, resulting in $69.5 million of net funded activity. The firm also refinanced its 2026 notes in January 2026 with borrowings under a revolving credit facility and a new $400 million unsecured 2029 bond, while repurchasing $15 million of its stock under a $75 million buyback plan, moves that reshape its capital structure and may support shareholder returns despite modest pressure on NAV and credit quality.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Goldman Sachs BDC Issues $400 Million Senior Notes

On January 28, 2026, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. entered into a Fifth Supplemental Indenture with Computershare Trust Company to issue $400 million of 5.100% unsecured notes due January 28, 2029, which are senior to any expressly subordinated obligations, rank pari passu with other unsubordinated debt, and are effectively and structurally junior to secured and subsidiary-level indebtedness. The notes, which pay interest semi-annually beginning July 28, 2026, are subject to covenants tied to investment company asset coverage requirements and financial reporting, include a change-of-control repurchase feature at 100% of principal plus accrued interest, and generated approximately $392.5 million in net proceeds at the offering’s closing on January 28, 2026, which the company plans to use to pay down its senior secured revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes, thereby extending its debt maturity profile and reducing secured borrowings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Goldman Sachs BDC Prices $400 Million Notes Offering

On January 21, 2026, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs Asset Management and SMBC Nikko Securities America, acting as representatives of a group of underwriters, for the issuance and sale of $400 million aggregate principal amount of 5.100% notes due 2029. The offering, conducted under an existing SEC registration, reflects the company’s continued use of the debt capital markets to fund its lending activities, with the deal governed by standard closing conditions, indemnification provisions, and ongoing commercial relationships between the company and the underwriting banks for various financial services.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Goldman Sachs BDC Refinances Debt Via Credit Facility

On January 15, 2026, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. borrowed $505 million under its senior secured revolving credit facility, using the proceeds and cash on hand to repay in full $500 million in 2.875% senior notes that matured the same day, including all accrued and unpaid interest. The transaction fully extinguished the company’s obligations under the maturing notes while preserving approximately $526 million of remaining borrowing capacity under the revolving facility, signaling a shift in its liability structure and providing continued balance sheet flexibility for future financing needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.

Goldman Sachs BDC Expands Credit Facility and Liquidity

On December 17, 2025, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. amended its senior secured revolving credit agreement with Truist Bank and other lenders, marking the thirteenth modification to this facility since its original inception in 2013. The amendment raised both the letter of credit sublimit and the swingline sublimit from $150 million to $200 million, enhancing the company’s available liquidity and flexibility to issue letters of credit and access short-term funding, which may strengthen its ability to support portfolio companies and manage its financing needs in a competitive lending environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBD) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goldman Sachs BDC stock, see the GSBD Stock Forecast page.