Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD)
NYSE:GSBD
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Goldman Sachs BDC
(NYSE:GSBD)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
â–²(7.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and cash flow, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and ongoing financial volatility/leverage sensitivity highlighted in both the statements and the latest call.
Positive Factors
Consistent Cash Generation
GSBD has delivered positive operating and free cash flow across periods, with FCF closely tracking net income and a large FCF increase in 2025. Durable free cash flow underpins dividend coverage, funds buybacks and covenant compliance, and reduces reliance on short-term funding when deploying capital into middle‑market loans.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage
Historically material leverage amplifies earnings volatility and interest‑rate sensitivity for GSBD, constraining flexibility for distributions or opportunistic investing in stress periods. A net debt/equity near 1.27x raises refinancing and coverage risk and can magnify NAV impacts from portfolio markdowns or rising funding costs.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Cash Generation
GSBD has delivered positive operating and free cash flow across periods, with FCF closely tracking net income and a large FCF increase in 2025. Durable free cash flow underpins dividend coverage, funds buybacks and covenant compliance, and reduces reliance on short-term funding when deploying capital into middle‑market loans.
Read all positive factors
Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.11B
Dividend Yield17.34%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-12.06%
EPS Growth87.77%
CountryUS
Employees8
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding112,569,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,354,570
30 Day Avg. Volume1,393,385
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)4.42
P/FCF Ratio3.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside-8.07% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$324.02M
Goldman Sachs BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in private companies. It seeks to make capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, senior secured debt, junior s...
How the Company Makes Money
GSBD makes money primarily from investment income earned on its portfolio of middle-market financings. The core revenue stream is interest income on loans it originates or acquires (typically floating-rate senior secured debt), which reflects the ...
Goldman Sachs BDC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a primarily positive tone driven by substantial progress in portfolio quality (median EBITDA +84%), reduced ARR exposure, strong origination activity ($14.6B platform commits in 2025), effective use of the Goldman Sachs ecosystem (Clearwater) and disciplined active management including meaningful repayments and accretive buybacks. Offsetting items included modest NAV and NII pressure, slight yield compression, higher leverage (net debt/equity up to 1.27x), and a small rise in nonaccruals and legacy software/AI-related credit actions. Overall, the positive operational and structural improvements outweigh the near-term earnings and leverage headwinds.Positive Updates
Meaningful Portfolio Quality Improvement
Median portfolio EBITDA increased 84% from year-end 2021 to $71.8M at year-end 2025; first-lien exposure rose to 97% of the portfolio from 89% since 2021, reflecting a shift to higher-quality, top-of-capital-structure investments.
Negative Updates
Quarterly NAV and NII Pressure
Net asset value per share fell to $12.64 (approximately a 1% decrease vs. Q3) driven by net realized and unrealized losses; GAAP net investment income fell to $42.2M ($0.37 per share) in Q4 from $45.3M in the prior quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Meaningful Portfolio Quality Improvement
Median portfolio EBITDA increased 84% from year-end 2021 to $71.8M at year-end 2025; first-lien exposure rose to 97% of the portfolio from 89% since 2021, reflecting a shift to higher-quality, top-of-capital-structure investments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect continued M&A-driven demand for credit (global M&A +44% in 2025; U.S. PE ≈ $1.2T) even as spreads may moderately widen (management cited ~25–50 bps movement in coupon and OID), and said they remain comfortable with the current payout (Q4 supplemental $0.03 and Q1 2026 base dividend $0.32) given current earnings and liquidity: Q4 GAAP after‑tax NII $42.2M (NII/share $0.37; annualized NII yield on book value 11.7%), adjusted NAV/share $12.61 (NAV $12.64), undistributed taxable income (spillover) ~$109M or $0.97/share, portfolio fair value ~$3.26–3.3B, outstanding debt ~$1.9B, net assets ~$1.4B, net debt-to-equity 1.27x, and ~$1.1B revolver capacity pre-quarter (subsequent $505M draw and $400M 3‑yr note issued at 5.1% swapped to floating). They emphasized improving credit metrics that support this stance (median EBITDA up 84% to $71.8M since YE2021; first‑lien exposure 97%; investments on nonaccrual 1.9% of FV; PIK down to 9% of investment income from 15.3% YoY; ARR exposure reduced to 11% in GSBD and ~5% in the BDC complex), strong origination activity (GSBD ~ $1.2B committed in 35 new deals in 2025; Q4 originations ~$394.9M across 27 companies; Direct Lending Americas committed ~$14.6B in 2025), and a measured capital return program (repurchases ~$52.2M/4.7M shares since June, including ~$15M/1.5M shares in Q4; ~ $23M room remaining under current authorization).Goldman Sachs BDC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 242.45M | 192.43M | 454.91M | 136.10M | 229.08M |
| Gross Profit | 182.78M | 78.71M | 454.91M | 56.64M | 170.09M |
| EBITDA | 234.93M | 68.35M | 0.00 | 59.70M | 194.07M |
| Net Income | 119.27M | 62.87M | 195.87M | 55.00M | 192.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.38B | 3.60B | 3.52B | 3.59B | 3.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.21M | 61.80M | 52.36M | 39.60M | 33.76M |
| Total Debt | 1.88B | 1.93B | 1.83B | 2.01B | 1.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.96B | 2.03B | 1.92B | 2.09B | 1.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42B | 1.57B | 1.60B | 1.50B | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 325.68M | 201.06M | 186.98M | 169.20M | -29.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 325.68M | 201.06M | 186.98M | 169.20M | -29.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -198.60M | 113.71M | -141.76M | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -344.45M | 7.15M | -287.99M | -21.75M | 31.69M |
Goldman Sachs BDC Technical Analysis
Positive
9.79
Price Trends
8.95
Positive
8.99
Positive
9.34
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
68.79
Neutral
91.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.07, above the 50-day MA of 8.95, and above the 200-day MA of 9.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSBD.
Goldman Sachs BDC Risk Analysis
Goldman Sachs BDC disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Goldman Sachs BDC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Goldman Sachs BDC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.44B | 9.68 | 11.18% | 11.90% | 40.66% | 30.21% | |
72 Outperform | $891.29M | 9.13 | 8.72% | 13.18% | -15.93% | -17.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.38B | 7.49 | 14.09% | 13.53% | 1.67% | -8.61% | |
66 Neutral | $1.11B | 8.99 | 8.03% | 17.34% | -12.06% | 87.77% | |
61 Neutral | $841.27M | 59.29 | 1.29% | 14.17% | 12.25% | -86.65% | |
60 Neutral | $831.69M | 12.09 | 5.87% | 13.63% | 1.81% | -39.19% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
10.09
1.14
12.74%
CSWC
Capital Southwest
23.88
5.79
31.97%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
8.60
-0.07
-0.83%
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
11.96
-0.97
-7.47%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
13.94
0.50
3.69%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
16.63
4.27
34.50%
Goldman Sachs BDC Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Goldman Sachs BDC Schedules First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Apr 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc., a specialty finance company focused on direct lending to U.S. middle‑market companies through secured and unsecured debt and select equity stakes, is externally managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and operates ...
Executive/Board Changes
Goldman Sachs BDC Announces Upcoming Director Board Resignation
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 15, 2026, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. announced that director Susan B. McGee had notified the board of her intention to resign from the board and all its committees. Her resignation is scheduled to take effect on March 31, 2026, and the compa...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Goldman Sachs BDC Posts Q4 Results, Declares Dividends
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026, posting net investment income of $0.37 per share and an 11.7% annualized net investment income yield on book value, while net asset value per share sl...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Goldman Sachs BDC Issues $400 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. entered into a Fifth Supplemental Indenture with Computershare Trust Company to issue $400 million of 5.100% unsecured notes due January 28, 2029, which are senior to any expressly subordinated obligati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.