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Grail Inc (GRAL)
:GRAL
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GRAIL Inc (GRAL) AI Stock Analysis

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GRAL

GRAIL Inc

(NASDAQ:GRAL)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$86.00
▲(2.74% Upside)
GRAIL Inc.'s stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and positive technical indicators, offset by significant profitability challenges and a negative valuation due to ongoing losses. The earnings call provided a cautiously optimistic outlook with improvements in financial management and clinical results, but operational challenges persist.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
The partnership with Samsung to expand Galleri's reach in Asia strengthens GRAIL's market position and opens new revenue streams, enhancing long-term growth prospects.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for GRAIL's products, supporting the company's expansion and market penetration efforts over the long term.
Clinical Trial Success
Successful clinical trials enhance the credibility and adoption of GRAIL's tests, potentially increasing market share and supporting future product development.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing losses and negative margins indicate financial challenges that may hinder GRAIL's ability to achieve sustainable profitability in the near to medium term.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative cash flow suggests reliance on external funding, which could limit operational flexibility and increase financial risk if not addressed.
Operational Challenges
Operational inefficiencies could impact customer satisfaction and increase costs, potentially affecting GRAIL's competitive position and profitability.

GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGRAIL Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the early detection of cancer through its innovative multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood tests. The company operates primarily in the healthcare sector, leveraging advanced genomic technologies and data analytics to develop its core products. GRAIL aims to transform cancer screening by providing tests that can detect multiple types of cancer at their earliest stages, thereby improving patient outcomes and enabling timely intervention.
How the Company Makes MoneyGRAIL generates revenue primarily through the sale of its multi-cancer early detection tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model as well, allowing individuals to access its testing services. Key revenue streams include the fees charged for each test performed, as well as potential partnerships with healthcare organizations and insurers that may facilitate broader access to its products. GRAIL also benefits from collaborations with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which may involve funding for clinical studies or development efforts aimed at integrating its testing solutions into broader cancer care protocols.

GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments in commercial growth, clinical trial results, and financial management, alongside operational challenges and high net loss. The positive aspects, including strong revenue growth and clinical trial outcomes, slightly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Commercial Growth
Galleri test orders grew significantly with more than 45,000 commercial tests sold in Q2, contributing to over 370,000 tests prescribed since its launch in 2021.
Positive Clinical Trial Results
PATHFINDER 2 study showed substantially greater additional cancer detection and a higher positive predictive value compared to the first PATHFINDER study.
Revenue Growth
GRAIL reported Q2 revenue of $35.5 million, an 11% increase from the same period in 2024, with U.S. Galleri revenue up 21%.
Partnership Expansion
GRAIL established new partnerships, including with Rush University System for Health and Everlywell, to expand the availability of Galleri.
Improved Financials
Net loss improved by 93% compared to Q2 2024, with cash burn guidance updated to no more than $310 million for 2025, down from previously projected numbers.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges
The company faced increased turnaround times and higher reprocessing costs for a small proportion of samples due to the new Galleri version's complexity.
High Net Loss
Despite improvements, GRAIL reported a net loss of $114 million for Q2, including impairments and stock-based compensation costs.
Cost of Screening Revenue
Decreased as a percent of revenue due to a 6% decrease in ASP and additional sample reprocessing costs.
Company Guidance
During GRAIL's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key performance metrics and financial results. GRAIL reported second-quarter revenue of $35.5 million, an 11% increase from the previous year, with screening revenue accounting for $34.4 million. The company sold over 45,000 Galleri tests in the quarter, contributing to a total of more than 370,000 tests prescribed by over 15,000 healthcare providers since the product's commercial launch in 2021. Galleri's positive predictive value (PPV) was notably higher in the PATHFINDER 2 study compared to the first PATHFINDER study, with a specificity of 99.5% and a cancer signal origin accuracy of 88%. Additionally, GRAIL's cash position was $606.1 million, and it revised its full-year cash burn guidance to no more than $310 million, a decrease of more than 40% compared to 2024. The company also plans to submit detailed PATHFINDER 2 study results for presentation at the ESMO Congress 2025 in October.

GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
GRAIL Inc. shows strong revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges with negative profit margins. The company maintains financial stability through a strong equity base and low leverage, yet cash flow remains a concern due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
GRAIL Inc. has shown substantial revenue growth with a 34.89% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss with a negative gross profit margin of -62.12% and a net profit margin of -161.42% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
GRAIL Inc. maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 83.92%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, signifying limited leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses. The company's high stockholders' equity relative to total assets suggests financial stability but profitability remains a concern.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, indicating cash flow challenges. Free cash flow has improved slightly, but remains negative at -$582.36 million. The company raised $1.24 billion in financing activities, aiding liquidity but highlighting reliance on external funding.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue134.28M125.59M93.11M55.55M0.000.00
Gross Profit-7.29M-78.02M-95.61M-116.45M0.00-10.31M
EBITDA-469.82M-610.17M-1.35B-587.70M-308.73M-243.14M
Net Income-442.95M-2.03B-1.47B-5.40B-312.16M-244.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.70B2.98B3.91B5.60B706.30M635.52M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments602.75M763.47M97.29M241.60M583.48M544.34M
Total Debt62.16M68.14M84.41M96.01M62.99M42.04M
Total Liabilities387.91M479.90M267.63M955.94M144.46M84.99M
Stockholders Equity2.31B2.50B3.65B4.65B561.84M550.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-371.75M-582.36M-608.69M-584.17M-243.91M-249.13M
Operating Cash Flow-370.05M-577.16M-595.80M-561.31M-232.00M-245.79M
Investing Cash Flow-462.10M-551.01M-12.89M-22.86M-12.79M133.04M
Financing Cash Flow0.001.24B463.77M604.82M275.11M160.33M

GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price83.71
Price Trends
50DMA
61.90
Positive
100DMA
50.10
Positive
200DMA
42.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.77
Positive
RSI
52.36
Neutral
STOCH
25.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 83.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.06, above the 50-day MA of 61.90, and above the 200-day MA of 42.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRAL.

GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis

GRAIL Inc disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$18.71B27.1331.20%-2.39%
69
Neutral
$27.44B-29.02%38.17%-28.77%
64
Neutral
$3.05B-17.68%22.37%86.08%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
54
Neutral
$11.98B30.38%24.17%
53
Neutral
$1.35B-12.99%10.10%-44.29%
51
Neutral
$613.35M-72.52%0.21%-233.51%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
79.40
64.10
418.95%
ILMN
Illumina
121.90
-29.60
-19.54%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
6.30
-11.01
-63.60%
NEO
NeoGenomics
10.08
-6.27
-38.35%
NTRA
Natera
199.57
65.60
48.97%
GH
Guardant Health
96.72
67.36
229.43%

GRAIL Inc Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
GRAIL Inc Secures $325 Million in Private Placement
Positive
Oct 20, 2025

On October 18, 2025, GRAIL, Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement for a private placement, expected to raise approximately $325 million. The proceeds will support GRAIL’s commercial activities, reimbursement efforts, and general corporate purposes, with the closing expected on October 21, 2025. This financing round includes participation from new and existing institutional investors and is anticipated to fund operations into 2030, excluding a separate $110 million investment from Samsung. The private placement is exempt from registration under the Securities Act, with GRAIL agreeing to file a registration statement for the resale of shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAL) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GRAIL Inc stock, see the GRAL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
GRAIL Inc Partners with Samsung for $110M Investment
Positive
Oct 16, 2025

On October 16, 2025, GRAIL, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement with Samsung C&T Corporation and Samsung Electronics to issue and sell shares worth $110 million in a private placement. This strategic collaboration aims to commercialize GRAIL’s Galleri multi-cancer early detection test in South Korea, with potential expansion to Japan and Singapore. The agreement includes conditions such as regulatory approvals and the execution of business and strategic collaboration agreements by early 2026. This partnership is expected to strengthen GRAIL’s market position in Asia and provide financial support for its commercialization and reimbursement efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAL) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GRAIL Inc stock, see the GRAL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
GRAIL Inc Signs New Headquarters Lease Agreement
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

GRAIL, Inc. has entered into a commercial lease agreement for a new corporate headquarters in Sunnyvale, California, covering approximately 75,556 square feet. The lease, starting in October 2026 and ending in September 2037, includes an initial monthly rent of $449,558 with annual increases, and provides options for expansion and renewal.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAL) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GRAIL Inc stock, see the GRAL Stock Forecast page.

Grail Inc’s Galleri Test Faces Uncertainty Amid Regulatory Challenges and Rising Competition
Aug 15, 2025

Grail Inc faces a potential business risk due to the uncertain regulatory environment surrounding Laboratory Developed Tests (LDTs) and the FDA’s authority to regulate them as medical devices. The company has heavily invested in obtaining a Pre-Market Approval (PMA) for its Galleri test, which could enhance its market position and adoption rates. However, if the FDA cannot enforce its authority, competitors may benefit from less stringent regulations, leading to increased competition. This shift could challenge Grail Inc’s ability to adapt, potentially impacting its business and future prospects.

Grail Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Optimism
Aug 14, 2025

Grail Inc’s recent earnings call conveyed a predominantly positive sentiment, highlighting significant revenue growth, increased sales, and favorable study outcomes. Despite facing some operational hurdles and reporting a net loss, the overall outlook remains optimistic.

GRAIL Reports Growth in Galleri Test Revenue
Aug 13, 2025

GRAIL, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on early cancer detection using advanced technologies like next-generation sequencing and machine learning, aiming to alleviate the global cancer burden. In its second quarter of 2025, GRAIL reported a total revenue increase of 11% year-over-year, reaching $35.5 million, with its Galleri test revenue growing by 22% to $34.4 million. The company sold over 45,000 Galleri tests in the U.S., marking a 29% increase from the previous year. Despite these gains, GRAIL reported a net loss of $114 million, which includes a $28 million impairment related to Illumina acquisition intangible assets. However, the adjusted EBITDA showed a significant improvement, reducing the loss by 44% compared to the previous year. Key highlights include positive results from the PATHFINDER 2 study, which demonstrated enhanced cancer detection capabilities when Galleri was added to standard care. The company also announced a collaboration with Everlywell to expand access to the Galleri test and its availability at Rush University System for Health. Looking forward, GRAIL remains optimistic about its growth and continued advancements in cancer detection, with plans to present detailed study results at the upcoming European Society for Medical Oncology Congress.

Grail Inc.’s Galleri® Test: A Promising Step in Early Cancer Detection for Medicare
Aug 8, 2025

Grail Inc. is conducting a study titled ‘REACH Study: Galleri® in the Medicare Population.’ This multi-center comparative prospective cohort study aims to evaluate the real-world clinical impact, including safety and performance, of the Galleri® test, a blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test. The study is significant as it seeks to enroll a diverse participant pool, including 20% from under-represented minority groups.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025