Grail Inc (GRAL)
NASDAQ:GRAL
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GRAIL Inc
(NASDAQ:GRAL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(37.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
GRAL scores in the upper-middle range primarily due to improving commercial momentum and constructive earnings-call/regulatory progress, plus a low-debt balance sheet. The score is held back by still-very-weak underlying profitability (including negative gross profit), continued cash burn, and limited valuation support given losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Volume & Revenue Growth
Rapid, sustained test-volume growth and rising screening revenue demonstrate expanding clinical adoption and demand. Higher volumes enable fixed-cost leverage and improve unit economics over time, supporting a structural path to scale even before full reimbursement and broader population rollout.
Negative Factors
Negative Gross Profit & Margins
Persistently negative gross profit and extreme net losses indicate the core testing economics are not yet self‑sustaining. Until unit economics sustainably turn positive—via pricing, mix shift, or cost declines—the business remains dependent on continued funding and operational improvements to reach profitability.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Volume & Revenue Growth
Rapid, sustained test-volume growth and rising screening revenue demonstrate expanding clinical adoption and demand. Higher volumes enable fixed-cost leverage and improve unit economics over time, supporting a structural path to scale even before full reimbursement and broader population rollout.
Read all positive factors
GRAIL Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)569.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.47
Revenue Growth19.44%
EPS Growth82.94%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-10.37
Shares Outstanding42,916,590
10 Day Avg. Volume545,250
30 Day Avg. Volume569,765
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)21.37
P/FCF Ratio-10.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-124.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$67.04Price Target Upside29.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-10.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.16M
GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to ac...
How the Company Makes Money
GRAIL primarily makes money by selling its blood-based cancer screening and diagnostic tests to healthcare providers and/or patients, recognizing revenue when tests are delivered and results are reported (subject to applicable accounting policies)...
GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum and meaningful clinical and regulatory progress: test volumes grew 50% YoY, screening revenue rose 37% YoY, adjusted gross profit improved 38% YoY, PMA was accepted, and large trial datasets and upcoming ASCO readouts support the evidence base. At the same time, the NHS-Galleri primary combined endpoint was not met, ASP pressure and continued operating losses persist, media scrutiny and competitive activity create near-term headwinds, and regulatory/timing uncertainties (including possible FDA AdCom and CMS coverage) remain. Overall, positives around volume growth, margins improvement, cash runway, partnerships and regulatory progress outweigh the challenges, but the company still faces execution and perception risks that will need to be addressed in coming quarters.Positive Updates
Strong Volume and Screening Revenue Growth
Galleri tests sold: >56,000 in Q1 2026, a 50% year-over-year increase. Galleri screening revenue: $39.8M, up 37% year-over-year. Total revenue: $40.8M, up 28% year-over-year (includes $1.0M development services).
Negative Updates
Primary Endpoint Not Met in NHS-Galleri
The combined primary endpoint (reduction in Stage III and IV cancers over 3 rounds) in NHS-Galleri was not statistically significant because an increase in Stage III detection offset the decrease in Stage IV detection, resulting in a null result on the combined endpoint.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume and Screening Revenue Growth
Galleri tests sold: >56,000 in Q1 2026, a 50% year-over-year increase. Galleri screening revenue: $39.8M, up 37% year-over-year. Total revenue: $40.8M, up 28% year-over-year (includes $1.0M development services).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of 22%–32% growth (a 10‑point range) despite a strong Q1 print—Q1 revenue $40.8M (+28% YoY) including $39.8M screening revenue (+37% YoY) on >56,000 Galleri tests (+50% YoY)—and explained the conservatism by pointing to uncertain uptake from new digital partners (e.g., Function, Hims & Hers), timing of the sales‑force expansion (territories rising from ~90 to 120, majority of new reps to be onboarded by midyear), Epic Aura integration rollout to ~450 eligible health systems (go‑live beginning in Q3), and regulatory/coverage timing. Q1 financials included adjusted gross profit $19.7M (+38% YoY), adjusted EBITDA -$79.9M (improved $18.8M, +19% YoY), net loss $93.2M (12% improvement) and cash of $823.1M; operational metrics cited ~1,300 new prescribers in Q1, ~2,000 providers using Quest/Athena electronic ordering (driving >30,000 tests via those integrations), self‑pay representing ~2/3+ of volume, and an expectation of only modest further ASP declines (with mix effects possible); the company said it will reevaluate guidance after Q2.GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 156.12M | 147.17M | 125.59M | 93.11M | 55.55M | 14.61M |
| Gross Profit | -23.10M | -62.57M | -78.02M | -95.61M | -116.45M | -100.00M |
| EBITDA | -360.46M | -377.82M | -610.17M | -638.22M | -587.70M | -1.21B |
| Net Income | -395.32M | -408.35M | -2.03B | -1.47B | -5.40B | -1.25B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.80B | 2.92B | 2.98B | 4.56B | 5.60B | 9.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 823.11M | 904.43M | 763.47M | 97.29M | 241.60M | 221.16M |
| Total Debt | 51.03M | 98.01M | 68.14M | 84.41M | 96.01M | 110.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 302.79M | 344.15M | 479.90M | 910.74M | 955.94M | 307.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.50B | 2.58B | 2.50B | 3.65B | 4.65B | 9.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -291.43M | -299.01M | -582.36M | -608.69M | -584.17M | -758.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -290.98M | -299.01M | -577.16M | -595.80M | -561.31M | -688.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -193.10M | -85.05M | -551.01M | -12.89M | -22.86M | 344.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 423.32M | 423.32M | 1.24B | 463.77M | 604.82M | 394.74M |
GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
51.71
Price Trends
53.66
Positive
69.49
Negative
68.72
Negative
Market Momentum
3.22
Negative
66.14
Neutral
89.46
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.54, below the 50-day MA of 53.66, and below the 200-day MA of 68.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRAL.
GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis
GRAIL Inc disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $21.85B | 34.48 | 33.99% | ― | 1.25% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $29.10B | -83.14 | -15.13% | ― | 36.59% | -11.94% | |
59 Neutral | $2.88B | -5.63 | -16.42% | ― | 19.44% | 82.94% | |
57 Neutral | $1.20B | -2.80 | -11.82% | ― | 10.95% | -26.52% | |
56 Neutral | $15.77B | -27.05 | 184.27% | ― | 39.56% | -0.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $360.79M | -3.09 | -109.09% | ― | -0.28% | -286.80% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
67.19
24.85
58.69%
ILMN
Illumina
144.41
64.04
79.68%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
3.82
-0.09
-2.30%
NEO
NeoGenomics
9.23
1.82
24.56%
NTRA
Natera
203.19
49.87
32.53%
GH
Guardant Health
118.95
80.95
213.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.