GRAIL Inc (GRAL)
NASDAQ:GRAL
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GRAIL Inc
(NASDAQ:GRAL)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▼(-9.11% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and a solid balance sheet/cash runway, but remains capped by persistent losses and cash burn. Technically, the stock is in a pronounced downtrend (despite oversold readings), and valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Cash runway and balance sheet strength
A cash balance of ~$904M and a stated runway into 2030 materially reduces near‑term financing risk, giving management time to pursue FDA review, scale commercial operations, and invest in evidence generation. This durable liquidity buffer supports execution across multiple quarters without reliance on immediate capital markets.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Operating and free cash flow remain negative with burn near $300M in 2025, meaning the company continues to rely on external capital. Persistent burn increases dilution and financing risk, constrains discretionary investments, and leaves long‑term execution vulnerable if revenue growth moderates or capital markets tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash runway and balance sheet strength
A cash balance of ~$904M and a stated runway into 2030 materially reduces near‑term financing risk, giving management time to pursue FDA review, scale commercial operations, and invest in evidence generation. This durable liquidity buffer supports execution across multiple quarters without reliance on immediate capital markets.
Read all positive factors
GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)892.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.43
Revenue Growth17.18%
EPS Growth82.74%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.18
Shares Outstanding41,020,256
10 Day Avg. Volume926,117
30 Day Avg. Volume892,889
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)21.37
P/FCF Ratio-10.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-33.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$67.71Price Target Upside30.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-11.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.37M
GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to ac...
How the Company Makes Money
GRAIL primarily makes money by selling its blood-based cancer screening and diagnostic tests to healthcare providers and/or patients, recognizing revenue when tests are delivered and results are reported (subject to applicable accounting policies)...
GRAIL Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful commercial momentum (36% volume growth, 26% U.S. revenue growth, expanded prescriber base), supportive safety and performance signals (fourfold detection rate increase, >20% Stage IV reduction in later rounds, no serious safety events), successful regulatory progress (PMA submitted) and a strong cash position. Offsetting these positives, the NHS‑Galleri trial missed its primary combined Stage III+IV endpoint, stage distribution anomalies require extended follow‑up (6–12 months), and the company still reports substantial operating losses and faces future royalty headwinds. On balance, the breadth of positive commercial, regulatory and clinical signals — plus improved profitability trends and a solid cash runway — outweigh the notable challenges and uncertainties.Positive Updates
NHS-Galleri Top-Line Clinical Findings
Top-line NHS-Galleri results show a substantial reduction in Stage IV cancer diagnoses (greater than 20% reduction in rounds 2 and 3 for a prespecified group of 12 deadly cancers), increased detection of Stage I and II cancers, a fourfold higher overall cancer detection rate versus standard of care, and fewer cancers detected via emergency presentation; no serious safety concerns reported across ~70,000 participants over 3 rounds.
Negative Updates
Primary Endpoint Missed in NHS‑Galleri
The NHS‑Galleri trial did not meet its primary endpoint: a statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancers was not observed (combined Stage III+IV reduction not statistically significant).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
NHS-Galleri Top-Line Clinical Findings
Top-line NHS-Galleri results show a substantial reduction in Stage IV cancer diagnoses (greater than 20% reduction in rounds 2 and 3 for a prespecified group of 12 deadly cancers), increased detection of Stage I and II cancers, a fourfold higher overall cancer detection rate versus standard of care, and fewer cancers detected via emergency presentation; no serious safety concerns reported across ~70,000 participants over 3 rounds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call GRAIL reiterated guidance for 2026 of Galleri sales growth of 22%–32% and cash burn of no more than $300 million, noted a cash position of $904.4 million (cash runway into 2030) and reminded investors of a ~12‑month FDA PMA review timeline; they also highlighted 2025 results including total revenue $147.2M (+17% YoY) with U.S. Galleri revenue $136.8M (+26%), Q4 revenue $43.6M (+14%), >57,000 tests sold in Q4 and >185,000 tests sold in 2025 (nearly 0.5M tests sold since launch), a ~17,000 prescriber base (+30%), Q4 non‑GAAP adjusted gross profit $23.1M (+29%) and full‑year $73.6M (+27%), adjusted EBITDA of –$71.8M in Q4 (improved 15%) and –$320.6M for FY (improved 34%), a long‑term gross‑margin target of 50%–60% at scale, Illumina royalties suspended until Dec 2026 then expected in the high single digits, and supportive clinical readouts (NHS‑Galleri top‑line: >20% reduction in Stage IV in rounds 2–3, a fourfold higher cancer detection rate, no serious safety concerns in ~70,000 tested; PATHFINDER 2: 35,000 participant results consistent with earlier 25,000).GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 147.17M | 125.59M | 93.11M | 55.55M | 14.61M |
| Gross Profit | -62.57M | -78.02M | -95.61M | -116.45M | -100.00M |
| EBITDA | -377.82M | -610.17M | -638.22M | -587.70M | -1.21B |
| Net Income | -408.35M | -2.03B | -1.47B | -5.40B | -1.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.92B | 2.98B | 4.56B | 5.60B | 9.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 904.43M | 763.47M | 97.29M | 241.60M | 221.16M |
| Total Debt | 98.01M | 68.14M | 84.41M | 96.01M | 110.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 344.15M | 479.90M | 910.74M | 955.94M | 307.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.58B | 2.50B | 3.65B | 4.65B | 9.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -299.01M | -582.36M | -608.69M | -584.17M | -758.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -299.01M | -577.16M | -595.80M | -561.31M | -688.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -85.05M | -551.01M | -12.89M | -22.86M | 344.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 423.32M | 1.24B | 463.77M | 604.82M | 394.74M |
GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
51.71
Price Trends
59.69
Negative
79.13
Negative
66.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.14
Negative
48.99
Neutral
59.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.95, below the 50-day MA of 59.69, and below the 200-day MA of 66.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRAL.
GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis
GRAIL Inc disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $20.63B | 34.48 | 34.94% | ― | 1.25% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $29.38B | -150.47 | -15.28% | ― | 35.90% | -0.51% | |
57 Neutral | $1.23B | -2.80 | -11.82% | ― | 10.95% | -26.52% | |
54 Neutral | $2.22B | -7.70 | -17.11% | ― | 17.18% | 82.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $448.84M | -1.57 | -79.81% | ― | -1.56% | -181.57% | |
46 Neutral | $11.49B | -30.76 | 164.85% | ― | 32.88% | 6.77% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
54.06
19.80
57.79%
ILMN
Illumina
135.78
57.61
73.70%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
4.80
-2.90
-37.66%
NEO
NeoGenomics
9.44
1.60
20.41%
NTRA
Natera
207.28
49.90
31.71%
GH
Guardant Health
87.60
43.55
98.86%
GRAIL Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
GRAIL Reports Strong 2025 Growth and Galleri Trial Update
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On Feb. 19, 2026, GRAIL reported that 2025 total revenue rose 17% year on year to $147.2 million, driven by a 26% increase in U.S. Galleri sales to $136.8 million, while net loss narrowed sharply to $408.4 million and adjusted EBITDA improved 34%....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.