Graphic Packaging (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.93B
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -27.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 295,740,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,032,482
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,586,354
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -55.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.14
• 1Y Price Target: $15.17
• Price Target Upside: 53.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.49B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(1.01% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (recent negative free cash flow and elevated leverage) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and earnings-call guidance pointing to a 2026 free-cash-flow improvement driven by lower capex and inventory reduction, albeit with notable near-term demand and pricing headwinds.

Positive Factors

High-quality manufacturing assets (Waco/Kalamazoo)

World-class recycled-paperboard plants provide a durable competitive advantage: improved cost structure, higher throughput and supply security versus peers. Over 2–6 months, these assets support margin recovery, reliability for large CPG customers, and drive structural differentiation in sustainable packaging.

CapEx discipline and meaningful free-cash-flow guidance

A permanent pullback in capital intensity to ≤5% of sales and explicit $700–$800M FCF guidance materially improves cash generation capacity. Lower structural capex frees cash for deleveraging, dividends and selective returns, reducing financial strain and enabling strategic flexibility over the medium term.

New CEO and structured transformation program

Experienced consumer-products CEO and an external transformation advisor increase execution credibility. Strategic focus on innovation, footprint optimization and cash/earnings improvement is a durable governance change that can raise margins, accelerate commercialization, and improve operational discipline over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and inconsistent free cash flow

Sustained high net leverage and recent negative FCF constrain balance-sheet flexibility and increase interest expense sensitivity. Even with planned paydown, elevated leverage limits investment optionality and raises refinancing and covenant risks if market or demand conditions deteriorate over the next several quarters.

Bleached paperboard overcapacity depresses pricing

Structural industry oversupply reduces pricing power and creates cross-grade competitive pressure that can erode margins industry-wide. This headwind is not transitory pricing noise; persistent capacity imbalances can restrain margin recovery and commercial leverage despite operational fixes.

Credit amendment raises allowable leverage limits

Relaxed covenant thresholds provide breathing room but signal material near-term balance-sheet strain. Higher permitted leverage and tighter repurchase/acquisition limits reduce long-term capital allocation optionality and indicate lenders expect elevated leverage while inventories are worked down.

Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Graphic Packaging primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging products to brand owners, retailers, and foodservice operators. Its core revenue stream comes from the sale of paperboard packaging—especially folding cartons used for consumer goods and food and beverage applications—where the company is paid per unit/volume of packaged product delivered under customer supply agreements and purchase orders. A significant revenue stream also comes from foodservice packaging (e.g., paper cups, trays, and takeout containers) sold to quick-service restaurants, beverage companies, and foodservice distributors. In addition to converting (printing, cutting, forming) packaging, the company benefits from vertical integration: it produces certain paperboard and paper-based inputs internally and uses those materials to supply its converting operations and/or sell to external customers, which can contribute to revenue while also supporting margins by reducing reliance on third-party substrate suppliers. The company’s earnings are influenced by packaging demand in end markets (notably food and beverage), its ability to pass through or reprice changes in input costs (such as fiber, energy, and transportation) through customer pricing mechanisms where applicable, and long-term customer relationships with large consumer packaged goods and foodservice customers that drive recurring, high-volume orders. Specific material partnerships or customer-specific contractual terms are not available in this response and are therefore null.

Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid with 2025 EBIT/EBITDA margins around 9.3%/15.6% and revenue re-accelerating, but margin compression versus 2023–2024, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.67; net leverage 3.8x cited), and especially inconsistent/negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 materially weaken the near-term financial profile.

Income Statement

Revenue has been resilient but choppy (down in 2023–2024, then re-accelerating to +9.3% in 2025). Profitability remains solid for the group, with 2025 EBIT and EBITDA margins around 9.3% and 15.6%, respectively, though both stepped down meaningfully versus 2023–2024 levels. Net margin also eased to ~5.2% in 2025 from ~7–8% in 2023–2024, indicating some pressure from costs, pricing/mix, or overhead despite the return to top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity improved versus earlier years but remains elevated at ~1.67 in 2025 (still meaningfully levered for a packaging business). Equity has grown over time, and returns on equity are healthy (13.3% in 2025, with stronger levels in 2022–2024), but the combination of sizable debt and reduced profitability in 2025 limits balance-sheet flexibility if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been positive and relatively steady (about $0.85B in 2025), but free cash flow has been inconsistent and negative in two of the last three years (including -$81M in 2025 and -$363M in 2024). The sharp decline in 2025 free cash flow growth and the weak/negative free-cash conversion versus earnings in 2024–2025 point to elevated capital spending, working-capital drag, or other cash uses that reduce financial flexibility despite ongoing profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.62B	8.81B	9.43B	9.44B	7.16B
Gross Profit	1.61B	2.00B	2.19B	1.82B	1.08B
EBITDA	1.34B	1.67B	1.79B	1.47B	895.00M
Net Income	444.00M	658.00M	723.00M	522.00M	204.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.78B	11.14B	11.18B	10.33B	10.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.00M	157.00M	162.00M	150.00M	172.00M
Total Debt	5.57B	5.46B	5.62B	5.50B	6.06B
Total Liabilities	8.44B	8.13B	8.39B	8.18B	8.56B
Stockholders Equity	3.34B	3.01B	2.78B	2.15B	1.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-81.00M	-363.00M	340.00M	541.00M	-193.00M
Operating Cash Flow	854.00M	840.00M	1.14B	1.09B	609.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-745.00M	-342.00M	-1.02B	-435.00M	-2.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-18.00M	-489.00M	-106.00M	-666.00M	1.78B

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.33, below the 50-day MA of 13.16, and below the 200-day MA of 17.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.27 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.

Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SON	71 Outperform	$5.30B	10.96	32.44%	4.33%	8.31%	-99.39%
PKG	69 Neutral	$19.18B	24.15	16.73%	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
SLGN	63 Neutral	$4.46B	14.78	13.03%	1.97%	11.10%	6.54%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SEE	60 Neutral	$6.17B	12.04	48.39%	1.94%	-1.22%	-0.76%
GPK	58 Neutral	$2.93B	15.73	13.67%	2.91%	-3.93%	-27.37%
OI	49 Neutral	$1.60B	-17.57	-10.38%	―	-2.82%	65.31%

Graphic Packaging Corporate Events

Graphic Packaging Appoints Jeffrey Stafeil to Board of Directors

Effective March 8, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company appointed Jeffrey M. Stafeil to its Board of Directors as an independent Class I director, with a term expiring in 2026. Stafeil has not yet been assigned to any board committee, and the company indicated he is independent and not involved in any related-party transactions requiring disclosure, underscoring an emphasis on corporate governance and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Amends Credit Agreement to Increase Flexibility

On February 26, 2026, Graphic Packaging and several subsidiaries amended their existing credit agreement to secure greater financial flexibility in light of an aggressive inventory reduction strategy that temporarily depresses EBITDA and raises the company’s consolidated total leverage ratio. The amendment raises the allowable leverage covenant to 5.0x through the fourth quarter of 2026 and to 4.75x through the second quarter of 2027, before reverting to 4.25x thereafter, while also adding a higher pricing tier for elevated leverage, capping annual share repurchases at $65 million, and tightening restrictions on acquisitions and investments in non-guarantor subsidiaries during the specified period ending after third-quarter 2027 reporting.

These covenant changes are designed to give Graphic Packaging room to manage its balance sheet and operations without breaching its loan terms as it works through lower inventory levels and associated earnings pressure. The added limits on shareholder returns and expansionary moves signal a more cautious capital allocation framework during this period, affecting lenders, investors, and potential acquisition targets as the company navigates its leverage profile under the revised agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Announces Transition of Key Legal Executive

On January 5, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company began a leadership transition involving Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Lauren S. Tashma, who relinquished her corporate role effective January 6, 2026, while remaining an officer or director of certain subsidiaries and an employee through March 1, 2026. The company expects Tashma to receive separation benefits under its Executive Severance Plan, enter into a release agreement covering the terms of her departure and a general release of claims, and provide transition services under a separate agreement to support ongoing matters, signaling an orderly legal and governance transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging CEO Outlines New Vision 2030 Strategy

On January 5, 2026, newly appointed President and CEO Robbert Rietbroek issued a letter to employees outlining his strategic priorities for Graphic Packaging as it moves beyond its Vision 2025 program and targets its Vision 2030 goals. Rietbroek, a former senior executive at major consumer goods companies and a long-time customer of Graphic Packaging, acknowledged both the company’s strengths and its challenges, citing declining volumes, margin pressure, elevated debt and a falling share price as signals that performance must improve. He set out three main focus areas: accelerating innovation to capture growth and provide sustainable packaging alternatives beyond traditional markets, rigorously reviewing and optimizing the company’s operational footprint and cost structure with the help of AlixPartners, and sharpening emphasis on earnings and free cash flow by lowering capital spending, reducing inventories, cutting leverage and aiming for an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. The plan underscores a push to restore growth, enhance margins and strengthen balance-sheet resilience, with the explicit goal of creating value for employees, customers, vendors, shareholders and bondholders while reinforcing the company’s leadership in sustainable consumer packaging.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Approves Retention Package for Key Executive

On December 19, 2025, Graphic Packaging’s Compensation and Management Committee approved a retention package for Joseph P. Yost, Executive Vice President and President, Americas, of the company’s operating unit, Graphic Packaging International. The package includes a $2 million cash retention bonus, payable in early 2027 if Yost remains employed or in certain qualifying termination scenarios, and $2 million in service-based restricted stock units granted effective January 2, 2026, which will vest on January 2, 2027 contingent on his continued employment. The move reinforces the company’s efforts to retain key leadership in its Americas business, aligning Yost’s incentives with long-term performance and operational continuity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.

Graphic Packaging Appoints New CEO to Drive Turnaround

The independent directors of Graphic Packaging announced a leadership transition, appointing Robbert Rietbroek as president and chief executive officer after a period in which the company’s performance and share price, down nearly 50% over the past year, fell short of expectations. The board said the change followed a confidential search and reflects a need for fresh leadership to better capitalize on recent capital investments, respond to macroeconomic and industry headwinds, and restore long-term shareholder value. Rietbroek, a veteran of major consumer products companies including PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, Primo Water and Primo Brands, is tasked with aligning the company’s capabilities with shifting consumer trends, accelerating innovation, optimizing costs and improving cash flow within the framework of its Vision 2030 plan. To support these efforts, Graphic Packaging has engaged advisory firm AlixPartners to identify further performance-improvement opportunities, with the board expressing confidence that the new CEO can return EBITDA margins to recently demonstrated levels and position the company for renewed growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPK) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graphic Packaging stock, see the GPK Stock Forecast page.