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Gaming and Leisure (GLPI)
NASDAQ:GLPI
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Gaming and Leisure
(NASDAQ:GLPI)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(15.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
Overall score reflects strong underlying 2020–2024 profitability and cash generation (despite leverage) plus supportive technical momentum and an attractive income/valuation profile. The biggest constraint is uncertainty created by the 2025 financial data inconsistencies, with secondary risks around funding/timing and variable-rate exposure highlighted in the earnings commentary.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation & Dividend Support
Consistent operating and free cash flow across 2020–2024 (free cash flow ~95–99% of net income) shows durable cash conversion. That persistent cash generation underpins dividend coverage, services debt, and funds development without relying solely on equity issuance, supporting long-term payout sustainability.
Large, Deployable Development & Acquisition Pipeline
A multi-year $2.0–$2.6B pipeline, recent accretive deals (closed $700M Bally’s Lincoln) and planned acquisitions provide repeatable avenues to grow rental income. Structured sale-leasebacks and development commitments offer scalable, contract-backed cash flows and long-term portfolio expansion potential.
Proactive Liability Management and Longer-Dated Funding
Refinancing bridge loans with a new $679M term loan and issuing $800M senior notes extend maturities and add long-dated unsecured capacity. Extending maturities reduces near-term refinancing pressure, increases funding optionality for developments, and strengthens liquidity headroom for multi-year projects.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Rate Sensitivity
Elevated leverage historically and pro forma leverage cited (~4.6x, rising toward ~4.9x with recent funding) magnifies interest-rate and refinancing risk. High debt levels increase sensitivity to variable rates and limit flexibility if capital markets tighten, especially while funding large multi-year developments.
Rising Tenant Concentration & Development Exposure
Growing exposure to a small number of large tenants and multi-year project funding raises counterparty and execution risk. If a major operator faces cash stress or projects delay, GLPI’s concentrated rent base and development commitments could pressure rent coverage and capital return profiles over the medium term.
2025 Reporting Inconsistencies and Data Risk
Material inconsistencies in the 2025 reporting (zero reported operating/free cash flow despite net income) undermine trend visibility and forecasting reliability. Data-quality issues impede assessment of recent performance, complicate covenant and coverage analysis, and raise governance or disclosure concerns for investors.
Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.48B
Dividend Yield6.93%
Average Volume (3M)2.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.1
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth4.39%
EPS Growth-2.87%
CountryUS
Employees19
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.94
Shares Outstanding283,221,830
10 Day Avg. Volume2,351,162
30 Day Avg. Volume2,422,362
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)7.84
P/FCF Ratio15.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.50Price Target Upside12.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.70B
Gaming and Leisure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. engages in the provision of acquiring, financing, and owning real estate property to be leased to gaming operators in triple-net lease arrangements. The company was founded on February 13, 2013 and is headquartered in Wyomissing, PA.
How the Company Makes MoneyGLPI makes money primarily by leasing its owned casino and resort real estate to gaming operators under long-term, triple-net lease structures. Under triple-net leases, the tenant (casino operator) is generally responsible for property operating expenses such as maintenance, insurance, and taxes, while GLPI collects contractual rent, which is the company’s core revenue stream. Lease rent commonly includes fixed base rent and may include contractual escalators and/or components tied to agreed formulas in the lease (specific terms vary by tenant and lease). In addition to rent from existing properties, GLPI can grow earnings through acquisitions and sale-leaseback transactions, where it purchases real estate from an operator and simultaneously leases it back to that operator, converting the operator’s real estate into capital while creating a new rental income stream for GLPI. GLPI may also provide financing arrangements associated with transactions (e.g., structured deals related to real estate acquisitions/leases), but the dominant driver of revenue is rental income from its tenant operators. Key factors affecting GLPI’s earnings include the credit quality and performance of its tenant operators (as tenants must pay rent), the contractual terms of its long-term leases (including rent escalations), the ability to source and execute accretive acquisitions or sale-leasebacks, and access to capital markets to fund growth while maintaining its REIT structure.
Gaming and Leisure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive growth narrative: clear near-term AFFO guidance, multiple completed and active transactions (Bally’s Lincoln, Cordish Virginia), a deep development pipeline, and solid rent coverage metrics. Management emphasized a healthy balance sheet and funding optionality (forward equity, ATM availability, internal free cash flow) to support $575–$650 million of anticipated 2026 development spend. Headwinds and risks include equity valuation pressure (stock trading at a discount), short-term use of revolver capacity and resulting variable-rate exposure, timing uncertainty of partner-funded projects, rising exposure to large tenants and some non-cash accounting items that partially offset cash gains. Overall, the positive operational and financial milestones and explicit guidance outweighed the risks discussed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
AFFO Guidance for 2026
Company provided 2026 AFFO guidance between $1.207 billion and $1.222 billion, or $4.06 to $4.11 per diluted share and OP unit; guidance includes anticipated development fundings of ~$575 million to $650 million and does not assume future transactions.
Robust Development Pipeline and Deployable Capital
Management emphasized a multi-year, deep pipeline (discussed as ~$2.0–$2.6 billion of future capital commitments, with ~$700 million recently completed) and stated balance sheet optionality to fund projects without near-term equity issuance; forward equity settlement of $363 million expected on 06/01/2026 and Penn Aurora acquisition (~$225 million) expected late 2026.
Notable Acquisitions and Commitments
Closed acquisition of Bally’s Lincoln real estate for $700 million at an accretive 8% cap rate; closed the real estate related to Cordish Live! Virginia with GLPI committing an incremental ~$440 million toward development.
Progress on Major Developments (Bally’s Chicago)
Bally’s Chicago estimated >20% complete with hotel structure ~21 of 34 floors, curtain wall underway; roughly $740 million remains to be funded as of 12/31 and the project remains on schedule for a first-half 2027 opening.
Improved Cash Income and Operating Expense Reduction
Total income from real estate for 2025 exceeded 2024 by over $17 million, driven by cash rent increases of more than $23 million (acquisitions and escalators). Operating expenses decreased by $37.8 million, primarily due to a non-cash adjustment in the provision for credit loss.
Strong Rent Coverage on Master Leases
Management reported rent coverage ratios on master leases ranging from ~1.69x to 2.6x (four-wall coverage examples cited as north of ~1.9x in specific cases), and emphasized underwriting focused on four-wall coverage rather than relying solely on corporate credit.
Tribal & Other Development Momentum
Development activity includes the imminent grand opening of Ione Band Acorn Ridge and ongoing work at Caesars Republic Sonoma; GLPI signaled continuing productive discussions with tribes and interest in tribal financing structures (e.g., Dry Creek).
Negative Updates
Equity Valuation Discount and Share Performance
Management acknowledged the stock is trading at a discount despite visible growth (described as roughly a 'two-turn' discount and a dividend yield near ~7%); management expressed dissatisfaction with current equity pricing and limited near-term upside reflected in current market valuation.
Funding / Timing Uncertainty on Some Development Projects
Guidance and funding depend on timing of tenant and partner capital (e.g., Cordish must deploy equity before GLPI funds Virginia Live!), and several development spend estimates could shift by quarter; guidance excludes future transactions and thus is sensitive to timing risk.
Short-Term Leverage and Revolver Usage
Leverage stood at 4.6x at call; management noted that including the recent Lincoln funding would move leverage to just below ~4.9x. The company used revolver capacity (majority of a ~$670 million draw cited) for certain transactions, creating short-term floating-rate exposure that management said they are actively evaluating.
Tenant Concentration / Development Exposure
Exposure to major development-focused tenants (notably Bally’s and Penn) is rising as GLPI funds large, multi-year developments (Chicago, Las Vegas, New York potential). Management reiterated no hard cap on tenant exposure but acknowledged careful project-by-project underwriting and stated they would limit their investment on some large projects.
Non-Cash Accounting Items Affecting Comparisons
Non-cash revenue gross-ups, lease investments, and straight-line rent adjustments partially offset cash rent gains and collectively reduced an element of reported results by ~$6.2 million year-over-year; operating expense decrease was driven largely by a non-cash provision for credit loss—items that can obscure underlying cash trends.
Regulatory and Competitive Uncertainty
Legislative discussions in Virginia around iGaming, skill-based games and prediction markets could alter competitive dynamics for tenants; management currently views near-term direct risk as limited but noted ongoing legislative/competitive uncertainty.
Competitive Funding Landscape for High-Profile Projects
High-profile projects (e.g., New York integrated resort) are expected to attract many capital providers; GLPI indicated it may be unlikely to supply the majority of capital on very large projects and the company will avoid taking unduly dilutive positions.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 AFFO of $1.207–$1.222 billion (or $4.06–$4.11 per diluted share and OP unit), which assumes development fundings of ~$575–$650 million in 2026 (Chicago, Ione, Marquette, Dry Creek, Virginia), includes the closed $700 million Bally’s Lincoln acquisition (8% cap) and the expected late‑2026 $225 million acquisition of Penn’s Aurora, and assumes settlement of $363 million of forward equity on 06/01/2026; balance sheet metrics cited include leverage of ~4.6x (pro forma Lincoln just under ~4.9x), pipeline commitments of ~$2.6 billion over 24 months (supplement notes ~$2.0 billion with $700 million completed, leaving ~$1.9 billion), roughly $740 million remaining to spend on Bally’s Chicago (project >20% complete), master lease rent coverage ranging ~1.69x–2.6x, and 2025 results showing total income from real estate up >$17 million year‑over‑year driven by >$23 million of cash rent increases while operating expenses declined ~$37.8 million.Gaming and Leisure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong 2020–2024 fundamentals with steady revenue growth, very high profitability, and robust operating/free cash flow supporting dividends. The score is tempered by meaningful leverage typical for a REIT and major 2025 reporting inconsistencies (zero revenue/cash flow despite net income), which reduce confidence in the latest-period trend.Income Statement
From 2020–2024, the company shows steady top-line growth (roughly flat in 2020, then mid-to-high single digit growth through 2024) and very strong profitability, with consistently high margins and rising net income (about $506M in 2020 to ~$785M in 2024). A key weakness is the 2025 annual report showing zero revenue and zero profitability metrics despite net income being reported, which creates a major data-quality/consistency concern and clouds the latest-year trend.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects meaningful leverage typical for a REIT: debt-to-equity is elevated in most years (roughly ~1.65–2.21 from 2020–2024), which increases refinancing and rate sensitivity risk. Offsetting this, equity and assets have grown over time, and returns on equity remain consistently strong (~17–19% range in 2020–2024). The 2025 annual report shows an unusually low debt level versus prior years, which is a sharp change and may indicate a reporting anomaly or a one-time balance sheet event.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength in 2020–2024: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently strong and generally track net income closely (free cash flow is ~95–99% of net income), supporting dividend capacity and debt service. Free cash flow growth is positive in 2021–2024 (with more modest growth in 2023–2024), though 2020 cash flow was notably weaker versus net income. The 2025 annual report reports zero operating and free cash flow with a -100% growth rate, which again appears inconsistent with reported net income and reduces confidence in the most recent period.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.53B | 1.44B | 1.31B | 1.22B |
| Gross Profit | 990.54M | 1.48B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.36B | 1.28B | 1.10B |
| Net Income | 825.11M | 784.62M | 734.28M | 684.65M | 534.05M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.91B | 13.33B | 11.81B | 10.93B | 10.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 224.31M | 1.02B | 683.98M | 239.08M | 724.60M |
| Total Debt | 7.79B | 8.04B | 6.88B | 6.36B | 6.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.90B | 8.69B | 7.30B | 6.81B | 7.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.63B | 4.27B | 4.16B | 3.78B | 3.19B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 824.97M | 1.03B | 961.93M | 896.10M | 787.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.13B | 1.07B | 1.01B | 920.13M | 803.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -308.76M | -1.61B | -650.83M | -354.49M | -1.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.06B | 311.82M | 86.35M | -1.05B | 443.07M |
Gaming and Leisure Technical Analysis
Positive
47.60
Price Trends
45.86
Positive
44.35
Positive
44.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Positive
55.94
Neutral
11.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.67, above the 50-day MA of 45.86, and above the 200-day MA of 44.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLPI.
Gaming and Leisure Risk Analysis
Gaming and Leisure disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gaming and Leisure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gaming and Leisure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $4.31B | 13.80 | 11.81% | 7.05% | 2.93% | -0.87% | |
76 Outperform | $13.48B | 15.14 | 18.36% | 6.93% | 4.39% | -2.87% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $1.98B | 18.58 | 8.00% | ― | 5.72% | 47.75% | |
63 Neutral | $4.80B | 27.51 | 21.63% | 5.02% | -1.48% | -50.05% | |
60 Neutral | $6.19B | 32.50 | 21.80% | 12.79% | 8.88% | 131.78% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure
47.60
0.33
0.70%
CXW
CoreCivic
20.28
0.45
2.27%
RYN
Rayonier
20.37
-4.86
-19.27%
EPR
EPR Properties
56.27
7.73
15.92%
OUT
Outfront Media
27.25
11.83
76.75%
Gaming and Leisure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gaming and Leisure Refinances Debt with New Term Loan
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 4, 2026, GLP Capital, L.P., the operating partnership of Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc., entered into an amendment to its existing credit agreement to secure a new $679 million term loan maturing on December 2, 2028, with optional SOFR- or base-rate interest and no interim amortization. The proceeds were used to fully repay $679 million of outstanding bridge revolving loans without reducing revolving commitments, with the new facility guaranteed by GLPI and conditionally by Bally’s Corporation on a secondary basis.
Also on March 4, 2026, GLP repaid in full all obligations under its separate 2022 term loan credit agreement, resulting in the discharge of all related indebtedness and the release of associated guarantees without incurring early termination penalties. The refinancing shifts GLP’s debt structure from short-term bridge and prior term borrowings to a longer-dated facility, supporting liquidity and financial flexibility while maintaining relationships with its core bank group.
The most recent analyst rating on (GLPI) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gaming and Leisure stock, see the GLPI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gaming and Leisure Issues $800 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 25, 2026, GLP Capital, L.P., the operating partnership of Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc., and subsidiary GLP Financing II, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $800 million of 5.625% senior notes due March 1, 2036, priced at 99.857% of par and fully and unconditionally guaranteed on an unsecured basis by the company. The deal, expected to close around March 4, 2026, should provide about $791.1 million in net proceeds, which the issuers plan to use primarily to repay borrowings under the operating partnership’s term loan facility, with remaining funds reserved for working capital, acquisitions, development and expansion projects, debt repayment, capital expenditures and other corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the REIT’s balance sheet and funding capacity while adding long-dated unsecured debt to its capital structure.
The underwriting agreement includes customary representations, covenants and indemnification provisions in favor of the underwriters in connection with the note sale. The securities were offered under an effective shelf registration with the SEC, reflecting Gaming and Leisure Properties’ continued use of public debt markets to manage liquidity and support ongoing growth and development initiatives for its gaming real estate portfolio.
The most recent analyst rating on (GLPI) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gaming and Leisure stock, see the GLPI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.