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Gjensidige Forsikring (GJNSY)
OTHER OTC:GJNSY
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Gjensidige Forsikring
(OTC:GJNSY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(13.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (growth, margins, ROE) and a constructive earnings call highlighting stronger underwriting performance, robust solvency, and a large dividend proposal. Technicals are mixed with weakening momentum signals despite prices holding above key averages, while valuation looks somewhat demanding given the P/E and a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High ROE and sustained profitability
Elevated ROE and recurring profitability indicate efficient capital deployment and underwriting discipline. High ROE supports dividend capacity and inorganic optionality, underpinning shareholder returns and resilience across insurance cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Strong solvency and capital distribution
A robust solvency ratio near the top of the target range plus a large regular and special dividend proposal signal structural capital strength. This balance of capital retention and return supports regulatory buffers while enabling shareholder distributions sustainably.
Accelerating revenue and margin improvement
Strong top-line acceleration and rising operating and net margins reflect effective pricing, volume mix and cost control. These durable improvements point to a structurally stronger underwriting performance and profitability trajectory over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Uncertainty in core IT strategy and one‑offs
Material IT write-downs and an unresolved multi-country core IT decision create execution risk and potential further restructuring costs. Uncertainty on timelines and integration reduces expected synergy realization and can pressure multi-year efficiency gains.
Exposure to repair‑cost inflation and weather losses
Persistent repair-cost inflation and rising severe weather losses are structural industry pressures that can widen loss ratios and compress underwriting margins absent ongoing pricing or reinsurance adjustments, challenging profit stability across cycles.
Volatile cash conversion and coverage metric inconsistency
Large swings in cash conversion and an inconsistent operating cash flow coverage measure reduce confidence in cash predictability. For an insurer, stable cash generation is vital for underwriting funding, capital returns and solvency planning over the medium term.
Gjensidige Forsikring (GJNSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.03B
Dividend Yield2.19%
Average Volume (3M)89.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth9.55%
EPS Growth30.96%
CountryUS
Employees4,664
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding500,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume33
30 Day Avg. Volume89
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)5.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.44
P/FCF Ratio26.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.99
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Gjensidige Forsikring Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGjensidige Forsikring ASA provides general insurance and pension products in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The company operates through six segments: General Insurance Private, General Insurance Commercial, General Insurance Denmark, General Insurance Sweden, General Insurance Baltics, and Pension. It offers motor, home, accident and health, travel, leisure craft, boat, valuables, liability, commercial, marine/transport, agriculture, natural perils, life, and pet insurance products. The company also provides defined contribution occupational pension schemes for businesses, which include disability pension, spouse/cohabitant pension, and child's pension products. It distributes its products through various distribution channels comprising office channel, call center, Internet, partners, and brokers to private and commercial customers. The company was founded in 1816 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
How the Company Makes MoneyGjensidige Forsikring generates revenue primarily through the collection of premiums from its insurance policies. This includes premiums from both individual customers and businesses for various insurance products. Additionally, the company earns revenue from investment income, as it invests the premiums collected in financial markets, thereby generating returns. Key revenue streams include property and casualty insurance, life and health insurance, and investment returns. Gjensidige also benefits from strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers, which can enhance its product offerings and distribution channels. Furthermore, cost management and risk assessment strategies contribute to its profitability by optimizing claims handling and reducing loss ratios.
Gjensidige Forsikring Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong financial and operational positives: double-digit revenue growth, improved combined ratio, high ROE, a robust solvency ratio and a sizable dividend proposal. These were tempered by one-off IT write-downs and restructuring costs (NOK 502m), weather-related large losses (Storm Amy, NOK 349m), some headline cost-ratio pressure and uncertainty around long-term core IT decisions. On balance, the positives (recurring profitability, capital strength, growth and operational progress) outweigh the lowlights, which are largely one-time or manageable.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong profitability and return on equity
Profit before tax of NOK 1.754 billion in Q4; return on equity of 27.3% for the year.
Revenue growth
Insurance revenues grew 10.4% in Q4 in local currency and 11.5% for the year, driven by pricing measures and volume growth across Private and Commercial segments.
Improved combined ratio and loss metrics
Full-year combined ratio improved by 2.5 percentage points to 83.4%; adjusted Q4 combined ratio 83.8%; underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 0.7 percentage points (Q4).
Dividend proposal reflecting capital strength
Board proposed total dividend of NOK 7.250 billion (regular NOK 5.0 billion = NOK 10/share, +11% VS 2024; special NOK 2.25 billion = NOK 4.5/share). Regular dividend payout ratio equivalent to 76%.
Solid capital position and solvency
Solvency ratio of 188% at year-end; sale of Baltics expected to add ~5 percentage points in Q1 2026; Tier 2 capital and operating earnings contributed positively.
Cost control and operational efficiency
Adjusted insurance service result was up ~8% in Q4 after excluding NOK 502 million one-off expenses; excluding these items, Q4 cost ratio improved by 0.8 percentage points and full-year adjusted cost ratio was 11.5% (reported 12.7%).
Investment returns and pension growth
Investments returned NOK 482 million in Q4; match portfolio returned ~50 bps and free portfolio ~70 bps in the quarter. Unit-linked business added ~18,000 occupational members and >NOK 17 billion AUM year-on-year.
High customer retention and digital progress
Retention in Norway at 91%; retention outside Norway at 84%; Commercial Denmark retention improved from 85% to 86%. Digital distribution and automation improved, with higher digital sales and improved automated claims processing.
Negative Updates
Large weather-related losses (Storm Amy)
Higher large losses in Q4, including NOK 349 million in Storm Amy claims (net of reinsurance), contributed to a 1.3 percentage point increase in the Q4 loss ratio.
One-off IT write-down and workforce reduction costs
Q4 included NOK 502 million in expenses related to a reduction in book value of the core IT system and downsizing of the workforce in Denmark; remaining book value related to the Danish system disclosed at just over NOK 600 million.
Uncertainty and optionality on core IT strategy
Decision to extend life of Norwegian (and potentially Swedish) systems increases optionality but creates uncertainty on future investments, timelines and potential integration/synergy benefits across geographies.
Inflationary pressure on repair costs
Repair costs rose ~4% year-on-year for property and ~4.1% for motor; management expects repair cost inflation of 3%–5% (property) and 3%–6% (motor) over next 12–18 months.
Reported cost ratio headline high in Q4
Group cost ratio was 15.9% in Q4; while this improves materially when excluding the NOK 502 million one-offs, the headline rate remains elevated versus targets.
Other negative items and segment variability
Other items were minus NOK 100 million in Q4 (partly offset by positive year-end transfer to Natural Perils Fund); Baltic business reported lower results and will be deconsolidated after sale.
Customer satisfaction slightly below target
Customer satisfaction in Q4 was reported at 77, in line with prior year but slightly below internal targets.
Company Guidance
Management guided that pricing will be kept at least in line with claims‑cost development to deliver on 2026 targets, citing expected repair‑cost inflation of 3–5% for property and 3–6% for motor over the next 12–18 months, current average price increases of ~9% (property) and 10% (private motor) after average premiums rose ~14% and 16.5% last year, and continued focus on efficiency; key metrics cited include an adjusted Q4 combined ratio of 83.8% (FY combined ratio 83.4%, a 2.5pp improvement), Q4 insurance service result NOK 1.297bn (adjusted NOK 1.798bn after NOK 502m one‑offs), Q4 profit before tax NOK 1.754bn, investment returns contributing (CEO) NOK 482m, return on equity 27.3%, annual revenue growth 11.5% (Q4 +10.4% LCU), cost ratio 12.7% (11.5% adjusted), solvency ratio 188% (target range 140–190%), and a proposed dividend of NOK 7.25bn (regular NOK 5bn = NOK10/sh, special NOK 2.25bn = NOK4.5/sh, regular payout ~76%); they also flagged a decision on the Sweden core‑IT path to come first, expect FSA approval of the dividend, and noted the Baltics sale will lift solvency by ~5pp in Q1 2026.Gjensidige Forsikring Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong recent operating momentum with accelerating revenue growth and improving margins, supported by low leverage and rising ROE. Cash flow quality looks good in the latest year, but multi-year cash flow growth has been volatile and one operating cash flow coverage metric is inconsistent in recent periods.Income Statement
Revenue growth has been solid and improving recently, accelerating to ~41% in 2025 after a more modest 2024, supporting a clear earnings rebound. Profitability is healthy in 2024–2025 with net margins rising from ~12.7% to ~14.7% and operating margin improving to ~19.0% in 2025. The main weakness is volatility versus earlier years (notably the much stronger 2021 margin profile and weaker 2022 operating performance), suggesting results can swing with underwriting/investment conditions.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks conservative for the period shown, with debt-to-equity staying low (~0.15–0.21) and improving again in 2025 (~0.19), which supports financial flexibility. Returns on equity are strong and trending up (from ~19.8% in 2024 to ~23.2% in 2025), indicating efficient capital use. The key watch-out is that, as an insurer, the balance sheet is asset-heavy; while equity has grown, total assets have also expanded materially, so maintaining discipline around risk and capital adequacy remains important.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong in absolute terms, with free cash flow rising sharply in 2025 (growth ~158%) and free cash flow running close to net income (about ~97% in 2025), which is a quality signal. However, free cash flow growth was negative in several prior years (2021–2024), indicating some volatility in cash conversion. Also, the provided operating cash flow coverage ratio is reported as 0.0 in 2023–2025 (while positive in 2020–2022), which limits confidence in trend analysis for that specific coverage measure.73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 44.69B | 40.36B | 37.01B | 29.68B | 31.67B |
| Gross Profit | 44.69B | 40.36B | 37.01B | 29.68B | 31.67B |
| EBITDA | 8.50B | 6.82B | 5.50B | 4.46B | 9.19B |
| Net Income | 6.56B | 5.14B | 4.13B | 3.44B | 7.14B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 191.90B | 171.49B | 148.28B | 135.15B | 129.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.43B | 3.69B | 2.99B | 3.20B | 2.35B |
| Total Debt | 5.28B | 5.41B | 4.36B | 3.78B | 3.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 163.59B | 145.47B | 124.05B | 109.28B | 104.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.31B | 26.01B | 24.23B | 25.87B | 25.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.90B | 3.79B | 4.09B | 4.15B | 6.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.06B | 4.21B | 4.89B | 4.71B | 7.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -681.49M | -447.60M | -1.04B | 2.75B | -1.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.66B | -3.00B | -4.09B | -4.18B | -6.11B |
Gjensidige Forsikring Technical Analysis
Positive
28.12
Price Trends
28.13
Negative
28.10
Negative
27.66
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
52.08
Neutral
92.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GJNSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.76, below the 50-day MA of 28.13, and above the 200-day MA of 27.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GJNSY.
Gjensidige Forsikring Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $14.03B | 23.43 | 27.14% | 2.19% | 9.55% | 30.96% | |
73 Outperform | $19.02B | 16.80 | 10.26% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $9.88B | 11.89 | 15.32% | 6.98% | 7.08% | -4.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $10.54B | 4.30 | 14.36% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $41.12B | 15.62 | 7.50% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
46 Neutral | $10.81B | 15.82 | -152.32% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
GJNSY
Gjensidige Forsikring
28.01
5.68
25.46%
AEG
Aegon
6.99
0.63
9.84%
AIG
American International Group
76.64
-5.55
-6.75%
ORI
Old Republic International
40.19
5.98
17.48%
PFG
Principal Financial
87.73
7.59
9.47%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
38.55
-11.88
-23.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.