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Graco (GGG)
NYSE:GGG
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Graco (GGG) AI Stock Analysis

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GGG

Graco

(NYSE:GGG)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
▲(12.96% Upside)
Graco's overall stock score reflects strong financial health and stable technical indicators, which are the most significant factors. However, valuation concerns and mixed earnings call results temper the outlook. The company's strategic initiatives and cash flow improvements are positive, but challenges in organic sales and margin pressures remain.
Positive Factors
R&D Strategy
The proprietary QUANTM all-electric pump remains a key watch item for gauging the success of Graco's R&D cross-pollination strategy, with a higher ROI opening a wider segment of Graco's estimated market.
Sales Strategy
The One Graco go-to-market realignment is already yielding commercial benefits alongside expected cost savings.
Negative Factors
Earnings
Graco's second-quarter revenue, operating margin, and adjusted EPS all came in below consensus, driven primarily by weakness in the North American contractor segment caused by construction market softness.
Tariffs
Margins were impacted by roughly $4 million of tariff costs, representing a roughly $0.02 EPS headwind.
Trade Policies
Proposed trade policies with China could negatively impact full-year revenue by 1% to 2%.

Graco (GGG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Graco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGraco Inc. (GGG) is a leading manufacturer of fluid handling systems and products, primarily serving the construction, automotive, manufacturing, and maintenance sectors. The company specializes in the design and production of equipment for the application of coatings, sealants, and adhesives, as well as for the management of fluids. Graco's core product offerings include spray equipment, pump systems, and dispensing technologies, which are utilized in various industries to improve efficiency and quality in fluid handling processes.
How the Company Makes MoneyGraco generates revenue through the sale of its diverse range of fluid handling equipment and systems. Key revenue streams include the sale of industrial and contractor equipment, aftermarket parts and services, and rental programs for specific equipment. The company also benefits from a strong presence in international markets, which contributes to its sales growth. Significant partnerships with distributors and suppliers enhance Graco's market reach and enable it to cater to a wide customer base. Additionally, Graco invests in research and development to innovate and expand its product offerings, which helps drive sales and maintain its competitive advantage in the fluid handling industry.

Graco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While Graco saw positive developments in cash flow and certain segments like Powder Finishing, it faced challenges with declining organic sales, decreased gross margins, and tariff impacts. The acquisition of Color Service is a strategic move, but it comes amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Cash Flow from Operations
Cash provided by operations totaled $308 million for the year, an increase of $50 million or 19%. Cash flow from operations less capital expenditures increased by $93 million or 51% for the year-to-date.
Successful Inventory Management
Improved inventory management from consolidating operations under One Graco initiative contributed to increased cash flow and efficiency.
Industrial Segment Performance
Powder Finishing system sales were strong, with increased quoting activity and improved performance in the Americas and Asia Pacific regions.
Color Service Acquisition
Announcement of the acquisition of Color Service, a global manufacturer of specialized automatic precision dosing systems, with expected synergies in gravimetric dosing technology.
Negative Updates
Decline in Organic Sales
Overall, organic sales were down 3% in the second quarter, with the Contractor segment particularly weak, declining 5%.
Decreased Gross Margin
The gross margin rate decreased by 200 basis points in the quarter, impacted by acquisitions and increased tariffs.
Challenges in Contractor Segment
Contractor segment operating margin rate for the quarter was 26%, down from 31% in the same quarter last year, due to higher tariffs and lower factory volume.
Tariff Impact
Incremental costs related to tariffs were about $4 million in the quarter, affecting EPS by $0.02. Tariff pressures continue to impact the business.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter conference call for Graco Inc., the company reported sales of $572 million, representing a 3% increase from the previous year, although this included a 6% growth contribution from acquisitions, with organic sales declining by 3%. Net earnings decreased by 4% to $128 million, or $0.76 per diluted share, while adjusted non-GAAP net earnings were $127 million, reflecting a 3% decrease. The quarter saw a 200 basis point decrease in gross margin rate, influenced by acquisitions and higher tariffs, which added $4 million in costs. Operating expenses increased by 2%, driven by acquisitions, but excluding these, expenses declined by 5% due to the One Graco initiative and other factors. Operating earnings dropped by 2%, with the contractor segment's margin shrinking by 5 percentage points year-over-year. Cash flow from operations increased by 19% to $308 million, and cash flow from operations less capital expenditures rose by 51%. The company repurchased 4.4 million shares for $361 million and declared $92 million in dividends. Looking ahead, Graco maintained its revenue guidance for the year, expecting low single-digit organic sales growth, with targeted price increases planned to offset tariff impacts starting in September.

Graco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Graco's financial performance is strong, with consistent revenue growth, high profitability margins, low leverage, and robust cash flow generation. The slight decline in EBIT margin is a minor concern, but overall, the company is financially resilient and efficiently utilizes capital.
Income Statement
87
Very Positive
Graco has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past years, with a notable increase in gross profit margin. The TTM gross profit margin stands at 52.24% and net profit margin at 22.26%, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT margin from 2023 to TTM, suggesting rising operational costs.
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, showcasing financial stability and low leverage risk. The equity ratio is strong at 82.09%, reflecting a high proportion of assets financed by equity. Return on equity at 19.29% is impressive, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Graco's cash flow is solid, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.39, indicating strong cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth is robust, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.26, which highlights effective capital management. A significant increase in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM underlines improved cash efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.17B2.11B2.20B2.14B1.99B1.65B
Gross Profit1.13B1.12B1.16B1.06B1.03B854.94M
EBITDA667.59M678.86M686.59M641.62M578.00M440.43M
Net Income482.63M486.08M506.51M460.64M439.87M330.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.05B3.14B2.72B2.44B2.44B1.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments534.92M675.34M537.95M339.20M624.30M378.91M
Total Debt51.37M40.81M50.06M117.03M217.02M201.41M
Total Liabilities545.10M555.08M497.78M579.25M733.86M704.22M
Stockholders Equity2.50B2.58B2.22B1.86B1.71B1.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow608.41M514.96M466.24M176.23M323.33M322.70M
Operating Cash Flow671.88M621.70M651.02M377.39M456.90M394.04M
Investing Cash Flow-305.62M-342.81M-185.27M-226.82M-153.30M-99.04M
Financing Cash Flow-507.61M-139.86M-268.01M-434.40M-57.14M-139.47M

Graco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price85.87
Price Trends
50DMA
85.74
Positive
100DMA
84.37
Positive
200DMA
84.49
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
53.19
Neutral
STOCH
28.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 85.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.44, above the 50-day MA of 85.74, and above the 200-day MA of 84.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GGG.

Graco Risk Analysis

Graco disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graco reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Graco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$13.41B26.4920.17%0.80%6.69%21.44%
78
Outperform
$14.28B29.9619.62%1.25%0.75%-2.74%
77
Outperform
$10.45B29.5914.59%9.69%54.29%
75
Outperform
$12.70B27.9015.59%1.38%4.49%-3.33%
72
Outperform
$10.65B34.9218.23%0.48%3.01%27.13%
71
Outperform
$12.41B26.0412.25%1.70%4.73%-19.15%
64
Neutral
$10.73B15.747.64%2.01%2.76%-15.10%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GGG
Graco
85.87
5.53
6.88%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
181.30
38.93
27.34%
IEX
IDEX
164.93
-29.49
-15.17%
ITT
ITT
170.88
41.10
31.67%
NDSN
Nordson
225.03
-19.59
-8.01%
CR
Crane Company
184.27
40.73
28.38%

Graco Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Graco Completes Strategic Acquisition of Corob S.p.A.
Positive
Nov 8, 2024

Graco Inc. has completed its acquisition of Corob S.p.A., a global leader in dispensing and mixing solutions for paints and coatings, for €230 million plus potential additional payments. This strategic move enhances Graco’s presence in the growing paint and coating equipment sector. Corob’s technology and expertise will be leveraged to benefit new and existing customers, expanding Graco’s global manufacturing reach. The acquisition aligns with Graco’s goal of driving growth and innovation in fluid and coatings management.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025