Graco (GGG)
NYSE:GGG
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Graco
(NYSE:GGG)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(25.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by Graco’s strong financial profile (high margins, minimal leverage, and robust cash generation). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend. The key offsets are a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~30.5) and a cautious near-term growth outlook highlighted in guidance and call risks (tariffs, regional softness, and revenue lumpiness).
Positive Factors
High Profitability
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and cost structure advantages across cycles. This margin profile supports consistent operating cash flow, funds reinvestment and shareholder returns, and cushions earnings against moderate demand downturns.
Negative Factors
Uneven, Modest Top-Line Growth
Top-line momentum has been inconsistent, with a prior-year decline and only modest TTM growth. Structural lumpy demand in project-driven end markets suggests revenue may remain uneven, limiting predictable scaling of earnings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and cost structure advantages across cycles. This margin profile supports consistent operating cash flow, funds reinvestment and shareholder returns, and cushions earnings against moderate demand downturns.
Read all positive factors
Graco (GGG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.13B
Dividend Yield1.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth2.85%
EPS Growth3.09%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding165,790,020
10 Day Avg. Volume1,012,406
30 Day Avg. Volume1,020,187
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.95
Price to Book (P/B)5.23
Price to Sales (P/S)6.20
P/FCF Ratio21.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$94.00Price Target Upside8.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.37B
Graco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials worldwide. The company's Industrial segment offers proportioning systems to spray polyurethane foam ...
How the Company Makes Money
Graco generates revenue through the sale of its extensive range of products across various sectors, including construction, automotive, and industrial. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales to customers, distributors, and ...
Graco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Graco is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Graco is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGraco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear strengths — record sales, double-digit reported earnings growth, improved gross margins, strong cash generation, successful recent acquisitions contributing meaningful revenue, inventory reductions from the One Graco initiative, and a solid balance sheet with active shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives were tariff headwinds, some soft end markets and regional weakness (notably in Asia/China in the quarter), lumpy licensing fees and project-driven volatility. Management provided a cautious but achievable 2026 guide (low single-digit organic growth) and emphasized flexibility and disciplined M&A. On balance, the company demonstrated strong financial performance and operational improvements while acknowledging transitory and structural risks that could temper near-term upside.Positive Updates
Record Sales and Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Fourth quarter sales of $593 million, up 8% year-over-year (acquisitions +4%, currency translation +2%, organic +2%); company reported record sales in both the fourth quarter and full year.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Cost Headwinds
Tariffs increased product costs by $4 million in the quarter, causing an estimated 70 basis point decline in the gross margin rate for the quarter and $14 million of tariff impact for the full year (about a 60 basis point unfavorable impact on full-year gross margin).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Sales and Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Fourth quarter sales of $593 million, up 8% year-over-year (acquisitions +4%, currency translation +2%, organic +2%); company reported record sales in both the fourth quarter and full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Graco guided 2026 to low single-digit organic revenue growth on a constant‑currency basis (mid‑single‑digit growth including incremental sales from the Color Service and Radia acquisitions), with no upfront electric‑motor license fees modeled (Q4 license fees were $5M and $7M for FY2025); management expects an effective tax rate of 20–21% (ex. excess tax benefits/one‑time items), a ~1% favorable FX impact on 2026 net sales and net earnings at current rates, unallocated corporate expenses of $40–43M, and capital expenditures of $90–100M (excluding roughly $50M of facility expansion spend); note 2027 will be a 53‑week year (extra week in Q4).Graco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
93
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.24B | 2.11B | 2.20B | 2.14B | 1.99B |
| Gross Profit | 1.17B | 1.12B | 1.16B | 1.06B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 751.53M | 678.86M | 686.59M | 641.62M | 578.00M |
| Net Income | 521.84M | 486.08M | 506.51M | 460.64M | 439.87M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.14B | 2.72B | 2.44B | 2.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 624.08M | 675.34M | 537.95M | 339.20M | 624.30M |
| Total Debt | 60.96M | 48.65M | 50.06M | 126.59M | 226.11M |
| Total Liabilities | 620.34M | 555.08M | 497.78M | 579.25M | 733.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.65B | 2.58B | 2.22B | 1.86B | 1.71B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 637.92M | 514.96M | 466.24M | 176.23M | 323.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 683.59M | 621.70M | 651.02M | 377.39M | 456.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -172.80M | -342.81M | -185.27M | -226.82M | -153.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -576.05M | -139.86M | -268.01M | -434.40M | -57.14M |
Graco Technical Analysis
Positive
86.74
Price Trends
88.71
Negative
86.38
Positive
84.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.27
Negative
50.97
Neutral
35.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.44, below the 50-day MA of 88.71, and above the 200-day MA of 84.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GGG.
Graco Risk Analysis
Graco disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graco reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Graco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $14.13B | 26.59 | 20.38% | 1.32% | 2.85% | 3.09% | |
78 Outperform | $18.56B | 28.23 | 16.15% | 0.79% | 8.01% | 2.67% | |
77 Outperform | $14.80B | 25.94 | 12.11% | 1.56% | 7.09% | -2.29% | |
74 Outperform | $15.34B | 28.71 | 17.30% | 1.64% | 3.78% | 4.85% | |
65 Neutral | $10.99B | 28.93 | 19.12% | 0.49% | -0.37% | 21.77% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $11.99B | 50.02 | 6.19% | ― | 5.52% | 9.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GGG
Graco
87.19
9.25
11.87%
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Graco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Graco Appoints Sanjiv Gupta as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Graco Inc. announced that Sanjiv Gupta will become Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective April 15, 2026, succeeding long-time executive David M. Lowe, who plans to retire after more than three decades with the company. ...
Executive/Board Changes
Graco Director Brett Carter Resigns From Company Board
Neutral
Feb 13, 2026
Graco Inc. announced that director Brett C. Carter notified its board on February 12, 2026, of his decision to resign from the board effective February 13, 2026. Carter, who served on the Audit Committee and the Management Organization and Compens...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.