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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(5.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by heavy negative operating/free cash flow and ongoing net losses despite improving revenue and operating trends. Offsetting this, technicals are positive with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the latest earnings call reinforced constructive commercial momentum and reiterated guidance, though rising gross-to-net and trial/interim-analysis uncertainty temper upside.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & commercial traction
Sustained top-line growth and sequential demand expansion indicate durable commercial adoption of RYTELO. Expanding prescribing accounts and management guidance toward the mid‑to‑high end of revenue targets support scalable revenue, improving the firm’s ability to fund operations and reduce reliance on ad hoc financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Large negative operating and free cash flow
Persistent high cash burn meaningfully raises the probability the company will need external funding within the medium term, creating dilution or covenant risk. Even with improving revenue, negative OCF/FCF at this scale constrains strategic optionality and necessitates disciplined spend or financing to sustain operations and trials.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & commercial traction
Sustained top-line growth and sequential demand expansion indicate durable commercial adoption of RYTELO. Expanding prescribing accounts and management guidance toward the mid‑to‑high end of revenue targets support scalable revenue, improving the firm’s ability to fund operations and reduce reliance on ad hoc financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$827.56M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth68.64%
EPS Growth50.57%
CountryUS
Employees258
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding641,521,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,024,829
30 Day Avg. Volume10,908,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)3.90
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio-7.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.33Price Target Upside205.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$234.00M
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Geron Corporation is an advanced-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the creation and market introduction of treatments for myeloid blood cancers. Its primary drug candidate, imetelstat, is a telomerase inhibitor currently undergoing Phas...
How the Company Makes Money
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Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed positive commercial momentum and strengthening scientific evidence for RYTELO and the myelofibrosis program, supported by revenue growth (Q2 $57.5M, +17% YoY, +11% QoQ), expanding accounts and encouraging real-world data. The company also highlighted operational discipline (H1 operating expense down ~4% vs H1 revenue +24%) and a solid cash position ($327M). Counterbalancing these positives are rising gross-to-net deductions (20.7% in Q2 vs 15.3% prior year), a modest quarter-over-quarter cash decline, ongoing investment-driven spending, uncertainty around interim analysis modifications for IMpactMF, and unresolved EU pricing/MFN complexities that could affect ex-U.S. expansion. On balance the favorable revenue, evidence generation, and execution momentum outweigh the manageable risks and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Net Revenue Growth
Q2 net revenue of $57.5M, up 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter; first half 2026 net revenue grew ~24% versus the same period in 2025. Company expects to land at the mid- to high-end of full year 2026 RYTELO net product revenue guidance of $220M–$240M.
Negative Updates
Increase in Gross-to-Net Deductions
Gross-to-net deductions rose to 20.7% for Q2 2026 from 15.3% in Q2 2025, and the company expects gross-to-net in the low- to mid-20% range for the remainder of 2026, negatively impacting realized revenue per unit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Revenue Growth
Q2 net revenue of $57.5M, up 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter; first half 2026 net revenue grew ~24% versus the same period in 2025. Company expects to land at the mid- to high-end of full year 2026 RYTELO net product revenue guidance of $220M–$240M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 financial guidance and operational targets: Q2 net revenue was $57.5M (up 17% YoY and 11% QoQ; Q2 2025 was $49.0M) and H1 net revenue grew ~24% YoY, and Geron now expects to land at the mid‑ to high‑end of its full‑year RYTELO net product revenue guidance of $220M–$240M; total operating expense guidance remains $230M–$240M. Q2 gross‑to‑net was 20.7% (vs 15.3% in Q2 2025) and management expects gross‑to‑net in the low‑ to mid‑20s for the remainder of 2026, with inventory managed at 2–4 weeks. Q2 operating highlights included R&D of $22.0M (vs $21.7M), SG&A of $38.9M (vs $38.6M), total operating expenses excluding COGS of $60.7M (vs $60.3M), a 4% decrease in total operating expenses in H1 vs prior year, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of ~$327M at June 30 (down from $341M at March 31). Commercial metrics and pipeline timing noted as guidance drivers: 5% demand growth in Q2 vs Q1, an 8% increase in prescribing accounts to ~1,575 since launch, 34% first‑ and second‑line patient starts on a rolling 12‑month basis, an estimated ~8,000 U.S. eligible second‑line lower‑risk MDS patients, and IMpactMF base‑case timing unchanged with a final overall survival analysis targeted in H2 2028 while the interim event threshold is being evaluated.Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 204.56M | 183.88M | 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| Gross Profit | 170.21M | 179.14M | 75.74M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| EBITDA | -41.75M | -51.92M | -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M |
| Net Income | -69.89M | -85.78M | -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.90M | -116.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 519.01M | 570.54M | 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 300.85M | 359.80M | 406.57M | 333.70M | 172.75M | 183.72M |
| Total Debt | 122.14M | 251.57M | 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 300.39M | 344.67M | 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M |
| Stockholders Equity | 218.61M | 225.87M | 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -177.95M | -111.09M | -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -177.28M | -111.04M | -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 146.50M | 107.25M | -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.15M | 2.27M | 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Positive
1.42
Price Trends
1.33
Positive
1.43
Positive
1.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
61.05
Neutral
74.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.43, above the 50-day MA of 1.33, and above the 200-day MA of 1.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $403.63M | 15.98 | 20.37% | ― | -2.38% | -37.13% | |
72 Outperform | $681.06M | 1.83 | 96.49% | ― | 47.61% | 854.73% | |
56 Neutral | $827.56M | -12.37 | -30.31% | ― | 68.64% | 50.57% | |
56 Neutral | $1.50B | -8.83 | -28.77% | ― | -23.48% | 25.73% | |
56 Neutral | $799.86M | -2.69 | -141.95% | ― | 5.37% | -60.20% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $674.88M | -8.58 | -36.61% | ― | -75.91% | -173.33% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GERN
Geron
1.57
0.27
20.77%
RIGL
Rigel
39.22
8.78
28.84%
PBYI
Puma Biotechnology
8.12
4.83
146.81%
XNCR
Xencor
20.00
12.68
173.22%
CTMX
CytomX Therapeutics
3.37
1.27
60.48%
KURA
Kura Oncology
9.28
3.32
55.70%
Geron Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Geron Shareholders Expand Equity Plan and Elect Directors
Positive
May 27, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held virtually on May 20, 2026, Geron Corporation’s shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares of common st...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.