Geron Corporation (GERN)
NASDAQ:GERN
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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is primarily held down by weak financial quality—ongoing losses and material cash burn—alongside bearish technical trends. These are partly offset by a constructive earnings call featuring reiterated 2026 guidance, strong year-over-year commercial growth, and operating expense discipline, though gross-to-net and cash draw remain key near-term risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained, double-digit top-line growth and reiterated 2026 revenue guidance signal durable commercial traction. A growing revenue base improves operating leverage, funds continued commercial investment, and supports a path toward margin expansion as fixed costs are absorbed over higher sales volumes.
Negative Factors
Cash Burn
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicate the company is not self‑funding and will likely need external capital if burn continues. Over 2–6 months this constrains strategic optionality, risks dilution with financings, and limits ability to scale without careful cash management.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained, double-digit top-line growth and reiterated 2026 revenue guidance signal durable commercial traction. A growing revenue base improves operating leverage, funds continued commercial investment, and supports a path toward margin expansion as fixed costs are absorbed over higher sales volumes.
Read all positive factors
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$801.90M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth68.64%
EPS Growth50.57%
CountryUS
Employees229
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding641,521,000
10 Day Avg. Volume10,148,385
30 Day Avg. Volume14,480,613
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)3.90
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio-7.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-24.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside138.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$233.75M
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical t...
How the Company Makes Money
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Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and commercial story: strong revenue growth (+31% YoY), expanding demand (+6% QoQ) and disciplined cost reductions position Geron to meet 2026 guidance. Important clinical and regulatory milestones (IMpactMF enrollment, NCCN order template inclusion, peer-reviewed publication) bolster the long-term value proposition. Key risks highlighted include widening gross-to-net pressure (21% vs 13% prior year), a meaningful quarter-over-quarter cash decline (~$60M) driven by one-time and supply investments, and unresolved European commercialization/pricing decisions. On balance, the favorable revenue trajectory, cost discipline and clinical progress outweigh the manageable near-term financial and market-access headwinds.Positive Updates
Progress on ex-U.S. strategy and leadership additions
Active engagement with European medical experts, HTA work and pricing research underway with an intent to announce a commercialization approach for Europe before year-end; strengthened leadership with recruitment of a new Chief Legal Officer and two new board members.
Negative Updates
Widening gross-to-net reductions
Gross-to-net reductions rose to 21% for Q1 2026 versus 13% in Q1 2025 (driven by wider 340B utilization and expanded GPO contracting); management expects gross-to-net to remain in the low- to mid-20s for the remainder of 2026, creating pressure on realized net revenue.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Progress on ex-U.S. strategy and leadership additions
Active engagement with European medical experts, HTA work and pricing research underway with an intent to announce a commercialization approach for Europe before year-end; strengthened leadership with recruitment of a new Chief Legal Officer and two new board members.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Geron reiterated 2026 guidance calling for RYTELO net revenue of $220–$240 million and total operating expenses of $230–$240 million, while reporting Q1 2026 net revenue of $51.8 million (up 31% YoY and 8% QoQ, vs. $39.6M in Q1 2025); gross‑to‑net rose to 21% (from 13% a year ago) and is expected to be in the low‑to‑mid‑20s for the remainder of 2026. Q1 operating expenses excluding COGS were $50.4M (down ~9% YoY from $55.1M), with R&D of $15.0M (vs. $15.1M) and SG&A of $35.4M (vs. $40.0M). Cash and equivalents were approximately $341M at March 31, 2026 (versus $401M at Dec 31, 2025), reflecting annual bonuses, severance and CMC investments. Commercial KPIs included 6% QoQ demand growth, ~12% increase in prescribing accounts to ~1,450, and 33% of patient starts in the first/second‑line (rolling 12‑month); management expects a greater portion of 2026 growth in the back half of the year. IMpactMF interim analysis is projected in H2 2026 (final analysis planning H2 2028) and initial real‑world evidence is expected in H2 2026.Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 196.12M | 183.88M | 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| Gross Profit | 169.81M | 179.14M | 75.74M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| EBITDA | -40.69M | -51.92M | -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M |
| Net Income | -69.59M | -85.78M | -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.90M | -116.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 534.12M | 570.54M | 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 314.29M | 359.80M | 406.57M | 333.70M | 172.75M | 183.72M |
| Total Debt | 251.84M | 251.57M | 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 305.01M | 344.67M | 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M |
| Stockholders Equity | 229.11M | 225.87M | 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -126.30M | -111.09M | -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -125.96M | -111.04M | -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 106.66M | 107.25M | -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.44M | 2.27M | 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Negative
1.68
Price Trends
1.50
Negative
1.52
Negative
1.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Positive
33.55
Neutral
31.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.37, above the 50-day MA of 1.50, and above the 200-day MA of 1.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $662.13M | 3.71 | 50.38% | ― | 384.60% | 883.51% | |
60 Neutral | $1.62B | -59.63 | 442.91% | ― | 107.73% | 82.33% | |
57 Neutral | $1.41B | -9.39 | -48.98% | ― | ― | 6.28% | |
52 Neutral | $1.78B | -8.57 | -145.81% | ― | -10.44% | 19.99% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $801.90M | -12.02 | -28.90% | ― | 68.64% | 50.57% | |
43 Neutral | $1.74B | -6.98 | -256.66% | ― | 397.28% | 27.68% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Geron Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Geron Shareholders Expand Equity Plan and Elect Directors
Positive
May 27, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held virtually on May 20, 2026, Geron Corporation’s shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares of common st...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Geron Adds Seasoned Industry Leaders to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Geron Corporation’s board elected industry veterans Patricia S. Andrews and Constantine Chinoporos as Class III directors, with terms running until the 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, and appointed Andrews to the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.