Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 522.13%
• EPS Growth: 62.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 638,355,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,838,475
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,763,091
• PEG Ratio: 0.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.70
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -23.14
• 1Y Price Target: $3.25
• Price Target Upside: 93.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $238.45M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (rapid revenue growth, strong gross margins, and no debt) but held back by substantial ongoing cash burn and continued losses. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend. Earnings call commentary adds a moderate positive tilt via 2026 growth guidance and expense reduction targets, tempered by cash decline and gross-to-net/reimbursement risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Commercial Traction

A large, sustained revenue step-up from 2024 to 2025 shows Rytelo achieved initial commercial traction and repeatable sales execution. Rapid top-line scaling establishes a revenue base that can support incremental SG&A efficiency and funds further commercial expansion, reducing single‑product launch risk over the next 2–6 months.

High Product-Level Gross Margins

Very high gross margins indicate Rytelo has strong product economics, meaning each incremental dollar of revenue contributes disproportionately to covering fixed selling and development costs. As revenue grows, this margin profile supports durable operating leverage and a credible pathway to profitability absent major pricing shocks.

Clean Balance Sheet & Financing Optionality

Zero reported debt, ~ $400M liquidity and an amendment enabling up to $125M additional drawdown materially reduce near‑term refinancing risk. This balance sheet flexibility gives management time to execute commercial roll‑out and complete ISTs without immediate forced financing, supporting stability while revenues scale.

Negative Factors

Persistent Cash Burn

Negative operating and free cash flow at roughly -$111M TTM shows net losses are translating into real cash outflows. Even with improvement, sustained cash burn requires financing or material margin/profit improvements to avoid dilutive capital raises, making runway and funding optionality a structural risk over coming quarters.

Operating Losses & Expense Base

Operating expenses exceeded revenue by roughly $71M in 2025, indicating the company remains meaningfully unprofitable. Management targets cost reductions, but the existing expense base—driven by commercial investments and R&D—means profitability hinges on sustained revenue growth and disciplined expense control, a structural execution challenge.

Gross‑to‑Net Pressure & Access Risk

Rising gross‑to‑net deductions materially reduce net revenue realization and are expected to remain elevated. Combined with European HTA and pricing uncertainty, this creates structural upside risk to realized margins and international expansion, potentially limiting sustainable revenue per unit as commercial scale increases.

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Geron generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company does not currently have any approved products on the market, so its revenue streams are largely dependent on milestone payments from partnerships and collaborations, particularly with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships may involve upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development progress, and potential royalties on future sales of successful therapies. Additionally, Geron may receive funding through government grants or research collaborations aimed at advancing its clinical trials. The company's ability to generate revenue will significantly depend on the successful progression of its clinical candidates, securing regulatory approvals, and eventual market launch.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is scaling quickly and gross margin is strong, and the balance sheet is clean with no debt. However, the company remains meaningfully unprofitable and free cash flow is deeply negative, indicating ongoing cash burn despite improvement versus prior periods.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue improved to $183.9M (+26%), building on a step-change in 2024 revenue ($77.0M). Gross profitability is strong (TTM gross margin ~86%), suggesting solid product-level economics. However, the company remains loss-making with negative operating profit (TTM operating margin ~-22%) and a sizable net loss (TTM net margin ~-47%). While losses have narrowed versus prior years, profitability is still not yet in sight, keeping the score mid-range.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks comparatively strong: TTM total debt is $0 with stockholders’ equity of $223.6M, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. Total assets remain sizable at $570.5M, and leverage has improved materially from 2022–2024 levels. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (TTM ROE ~-34%), reflecting continued net losses that can pressure equity over time if cash burn persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a clear headwind: TTM operating cash flow is -$111.0M and free cash flow is -$111.1M, indicating meaningful ongoing cash burn. Free cash flow has improved versus 2024 (less negative), but the latest growth rate is still unfavorable and cash outflows remain large relative to earnings. Free cash flow roughly tracks net loss (near 1x), which signals losses are translating into real cash usage rather than being largely non-cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	183.88M	76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
Gross Profit	158.07M	75.74M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	-49.80M
EBITDA	-39.32M	-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-76.75M
Net Income	-85.78M	-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.90M	-116.11M	-75.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	570.54M	593.78M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	359.80M	406.57M	333.70M	172.75M	183.72M	196.28M
Total Debt	0.00	121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
Total Liabilities	346.95M	313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
Stockholders Equity	223.59M	280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-111.12M	-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
Operating Cash Flow	-111.04M	-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
Investing Cash Flow	107.25M	-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow	2.27M	334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.67, above the 50-day MA of 1.48, and above the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.

Geron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRMD	72 Outperform	$561.77M	3.47	75.08%	―	1647.67%	―
GERN	57 Neutral	$1.07B	-13.05	-34.05%	―	522.13%	62.68%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SNDX	51 Neutral	$1.91B	-6.59	-161.82%	―	597.19%	0.45%
ANAB	49 Neutral	$1.52B	-19.53	-308.02%	―	196.42%	53.92%
QURE	46 Neutral	$962.87M	―	-165.27%	―	-44.90%	11.49%
AVBP	45 Neutral	$948.23M	-5.42	-51.98%	―	―	-75.31%

Geron Corporate Events

Geron Issues 2026 Guidance Emphasizing RYTELO Growth

On January 12, 2025, Geron Corporation issued 2026 financial guidance, projecting RYTELO net product revenue of $220 million to $240 million and total operating expenses of $230 million to $240 million, signaling anticipated top-line growth alongside a year-over-year reduction in operating spending. Management said the outlook reflects a more focused commercial push for RYTELO, including tighter healthcare professional and patient targeting with expected stronger revenue in the second half of 2026, while a recent strategic restructuring is intended to streamline operations, support its LR-MDS franchise, and preserve balance sheet strength. The company highlighted expanded clinical evidence for RYTELO presented at the 2025 American Society of Hematology meeting, steps to align its cost base with its commercial and development priorities, and an amendment to its term loan facility with Pharmakon Advisors extending the window to draw additional tranches, moves that collectively underpin its drive to entrench RYTELO in LR-MDS, advance late-stage trials and position Geron as a sustainable hematology-focused player for patients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Amends Term Loan Facility to Extend Draw Deadlines

On January 5, 2026, Geron Corporation amended its existing senior secured term loan facility with investment funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors, maintaining a total capacity of up to $250 million across three tranches tied in part to revenue milestones for its product RYTELO™. The amendment primarily extends the deadline to draw the $75 million Tranche B and $50 million Tranche C loans from December 31, 2025 to July 30, 2026, and pushes the makewhole protection date for lenders from November 1, 2026 to May 1, 2027, giving Geron additional flexibility in timing future borrowings while preserving lender economics and potentially supporting its funding needs and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Announces Strategic Restructuring Plan

On December 16, 2025, Geron Corporation began implementing a strategic restructuring plan to enhance financial discipline and long-term value creation. This plan includes reducing its workforce by approximately one-third, impacting around 260 employees, with expected completion in the first quarter of 2026. The restructuring is anticipated to incur charges of about $18 million, primarily for employee severance and related costs, affecting financial results in late 2025 and early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.