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Geron Corp (GERN)
NASDAQ:GERN
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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(7.14% Upside)
Geron's stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including profitability and cash flow issues. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, but valuation concerns due to negative earnings weigh heavily. The earnings call provided mixed insights, with some positive developments overshadowed by demand challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth indicates a positive trajectory in the company's ability to generate sales, which is crucial for long-term sustainability and market competitiveness.
Strong Financial Position
A strong cash position provides Geron with the financial flexibility to invest in R&D, pursue strategic initiatives, and weather potential market fluctuations.
Strategic Restructuring Plan
The restructuring plan aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, potentially enhancing profitability and positioning the company for sustained growth.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues can hinder the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and may affect long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative cash flows indicate potential liquidity problems, limiting the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives without external financing.
Decline in RYTELO Demand
A decline in product demand can impact revenue growth and market share, posing a challenge to the company's strategic objectives and financial performance.
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$855.40M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth522.13%
EPS Growth62.68%
CountryUS
Employees229
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding638,355,300
10 Day Avg. Volume7,654,467
30 Day Avg. Volume8,045,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.84
Price to Book (P/B)8.16
Price to Sales (P/S)29.70
P/FCF Ratio-10.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-17.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside185.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$186.76M
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGeron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGeron generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company does not currently have any approved products on the market, so its revenue streams are largely dependent on milestone payments from partnerships and collaborations, particularly with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships may involve upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development progress, and potential royalties on future sales of successful therapies. Additionally, Geron may receive funding through government grants or research collaborations aimed at advancing its clinical trials. The company's ability to generate revenue will significantly depend on the successful progression of its clinical candidates, securing regulatory approvals, and eventual market launch.
Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with both positive developments in terms of increased prescribing accounts and new patient starts, as well as financial stability. However, there are significant challenges with declining demand, issues with late-line discontinuations, and the need for increased awareness and education on RYTELO's earlier line use.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Prescribing Accounts
Prescribing accounts increased by 15% in Q3, with approximately 150 new ordering accounts added, expanding the footprint to 1,150 accounts.
Improvement in New Patient Starts
New patient starts in the first and second line increased to 36%, up from 30% in Q2.
Strong Financial Position
Geron remains well-capitalized with $420 million in cash and marketable securities, and expects to have sufficient resources to fund projected operating expenses.
Presence at Medical Conferences
Active participation in hematology forums such as the Society of Hematologic Oncology Conference and upcoming ASH conference to increase RYTELO's awareness and engagement.
Negative Updates
Decline in RYTELO Demand
Demand for RYTELO was down 3% compared to last quarter, primarily due to discontinuations from patients using RYTELO in later lines.
Gross to Net Increase
Gross to net increased due to higher Medicaid mix rate, fees from new GPO contracts, and returns from expired RYTELO supplies.
Challenges in Shifting RYTELO to Earlier Lines
RYTELO's positioning as a second-line therapy and its uptake in earlier lines of treatment remain challenging, requiring more education and brand awareness efforts.
Lower Operating Expense Guidance
Operating expenses for fiscal year 2025 are expected to be between $250 million and $260 million, below the previously announced guidance, reflecting cutbacks in some investments.
Company Guidance
During the Geron Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on their performance and future strategies, focusing on the commercial potential of RYTELO in treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Key financial metrics revealed net product revenue of $47.2 million for Q3, despite a 3% decline in demand from the previous quarter. The number of new patient starts increased from 30% to 36% compared to Q2, although this was offset by discontinuations in later-line patients. Geron expanded its prescribing accounts by 15%, adding approximately 150 new ordering accounts, bringing the total to 1,150. The company highlighted its strong cash position of approximately $420 million and anticipated that its financial resources would support future engagement and expansion strategies. Geron also outlined plans for the European market, with commercialization of RYTELO in select EU markets planned for 2026. The company emphasized the need for increased awareness among U.S. healthcare providers to improve RYTELO's utilization and recognized that execution improvements would take time, projecting revenue growth primarily in 2026.Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Geron shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. The high gross profit margin is positive, but negative net income and cash flow issues highlight financial challenges.Income Statement
Geron's income statement shows a significant improvement in revenue growth with a TTM increase of 11.53%. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains high at 98.03%, indicating strong product profitability, but the overall negative net income suggests high operational costs or other financial burdens.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, indicating manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative operating and free cash flows, and a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. Despite these challenges, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flow aligns with net income.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 183.40M | 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M | 253.00K |
| Gross Profit | 158.11M | 75.74M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M | -49.80M |
| EBITDA | -44.86M | -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M | -76.75M |
| Net Income | -79.99M | -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.90M | -116.11M | -75.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 567.38M | 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M | 270.73M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 380.53M | 406.57M | 333.70M | 172.75M | 183.72M | 196.28M |
| Total Debt | 121.92M | 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M | 29.72M |
| Total Liabilities | 318.68M | 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M | 59.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 248.71M | 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M | 210.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -132.82M | -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M | -67.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -132.91M | -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M | -66.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.41M | -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M | -105.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 168.05M | 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M | 168.35M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Positive
1.40
Price Trends
1.23
Positive
1.28
Positive
1.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
64.61
Neutral
66.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.24, above the 50-day MA of 1.23, and above the 200-day MA of 1.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $855.40M | -11.65 | -29.57% | ― | 522.13% | 62.68% | |
49 Neutral | $1.25B | -16.21 | -308.02% | ― | 196.42% | 53.92% | |
48 Neutral | $1.80B | -5.63 | -129.32% | ― | 597.19% | 0.45% | |
47 Neutral | $901.35M | 5.58 | 75.08% | ― | 1647.67% | ― | |
41 Neutral | $1.35B | -5.25 | -165.27% | ― | -44.90% | 11.49% | |
39 Underperform | $954.01M | -5.25 | -51.98% | ― | ― | -75.31% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GERN
Geron
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Geron Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Geron Announces Executive Leadership Transitions
Neutral
Oct 14, 2025
On October 10, 2025, Geron Corporation announced the resignation of board member Dr. Gaurav Aggarwal and the decision of Dr. V. Bryan Lawlis not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Additionally, on October 15, 2025, executives Andrew J. Grethlein and Jim Ziegler departed from their roles, with Grethlein transitioning to a consulting role to assist with the transition. On October 13, 2025, Geron announced several executive leadership transitions, appointing Ahmed ElNawawi as the new Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer, along with three other seasoned executives to strengthen its leadership team. These changes aim to align the company’s leadership structure with its strategic priorities, focusing on driving growth and maximizing the potential of RYTELO®.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.