Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Geron Corporation (GERN)
:GERN
Top Page
Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼( -32.43% Downside)
Positive Factors
Growth Strategies
Management provided details on launch strategies to drive new patient starts, including a 20% expansion to the field force.
Market Demand
Management is hopeful it will deliver based on early signs of progress including a ~10% demand increase from March - April.
Product Profile
Rytelo has a decent product profile in a proven commercial market and can achieve meaningful sales growth over time.
Negative Factors
Inventory Issues
The surprise quarter-on-quarter decline on inventory shifts is an optical negative.
Revenue Performance
Rytelo net product revenues were below consensus and down due to inventory dynamics against flat demand.
Sales Expectations
Geron reported Q1 Rytelo net sales of $39MM (-17% Q/Q), which is below our estimate of $49MM and consensus of $48MM.
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$942.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth22264.23%
EPS Growth39.09%
CountryUS
Employees229
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength43
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding636,917,800
10 Day Avg. Volume10,694,517
30 Day Avg. Volume11,452,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.28
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-3.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.69Price Target Upside149.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGeron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGeron Corporation primarily makes money through the development and potential commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the successful clinical development, regulatory approval, and commercialization of its lead drug, imetelstat. Geron generates revenue through collaboration agreements, milestone payments, and potential future product sales. The company has partnered with pharmaceutical companies for the development and potential commercialization of its drug candidates, which also contributes to its revenue streams. Additionally, Geron may generate income from licensing agreements, research grants, and other strategic collaborations in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Geron faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow metrics, although there are signs of revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a heavily leveraged structure, which could pose risks but offer growth opportunities if managed well.Income Statement
Geron's income statement shows a challenging financial position with consistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins over the years. Despite a significant increase in total revenue in 2024, the company still reported a substantial net loss. The revenue growth is promising but overshadowed by the high costs leading to negative profitability margins.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage, but the company has been able to maintain positive equity levels. The equity ratio has been stable, suggesting a moderate balance between debt and equity funding. Overall, the company's asset base has grown, but liabilities have also increased significantly.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Geron's cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations. Despite this, the company has managed to secure substantial financing inflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains concerning, emphasizing the need for improved operational cash generation.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M | 253.00K | Gross Profit |
| 75.74M | -123.50M | -272.00K | 610.00K | -49.80M | EBIT |
| -173.73M | -193.94M | -138.55M | -114.00M | -76.91M | EBITDA |
| -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M | -73.92M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.03M | -120.95M | -75.61M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 406.57M | 333.70M | 173.11M | 183.72M | 196.64M | Total Assets |
| 594.46M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M | 270.73M | Total Debt |
| 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M | 29.72M | Net Debt |
| 42.70M | 15.88M | -1.46M | 20.13M | 19.43M | Total Liabilities |
| 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M | 59.78M | Stockholders Equity |
| 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M | 210.95M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M | -67.05M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M | -66.65M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M | -105.32M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M | 168.35M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.48
Price Trends
1.44
Positive
2.06
Negative
3.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
57.27
Neutral
75.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.33, above the 50-day MA of 1.44, and below the 200-day MA of 3.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our financial projections and estimates are subject to significant risks, assumptions, and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. Q4, 2024
2.
Our operating results are unpredictable and may fluctuate. If our operating results are below the expectations of securities analysts or investors, the trading price of our common stock could decline. Q4, 2024
3.
We have a history of net losses and may not achieve consistent future profitability for some time, if ever. Q4, 2024
Geron Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.06 | -43.57% | 2.81% | 16.81% | -0.12% | |
51 Neutral | $1.12B | ― | -49.41% | ― | 4.86% | 10.13% | |
44 Neutral | $1.13B | ― | -77.86% | ― | ― | -1.00% | |
43 Neutral | $909.53M | 2.31 | -50.47% | ― | -100.00% | 94.68% | |
42 Neutral | $942.64M | ― | -45.35% | ― | 22264.23% | 39.09% | |
39 Underperform | $637.81M | ― | -51.85% | ― | 11070.12% | 32.07% | |
36 Underperform | $822.89M | ― | -31.30% | ― | ― | 12.85% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GERN
Geron
1.48
-2.00
-57.47%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
1.75
-8.26
-82.52%
VRDN
Viridian Therapeutics
13.67
1.56
12.88%
SYRE
Spyre Therapeutics
15.07
-17.91
-54.31%
PLSE
Pulse Biosciences
16.86
5.49
48.28%
ELVN
Enliven Therapeutics
16.77
-7.17
-29.95%
Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 12.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. While there are encouraging signs of growth and strategic investments to bolster RYTELO's market presence, the decline in Q1 revenues, challenges in physician adoption, and reliance on third-party support in the EU present significant concerns. The ongoing executive transition adds to the uncertainty.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
RYTELO U.S. Commercial Launch
RYTELO was recently approved as a first-in-class novel telomerase inhibitor for lower risk MDS with a significant market opportunity. Despite initial sales not meeting expectations, strategic investments and adjustments are being made to enhance its commercial success.
Increased Commercial Investments
The company is investing additional resources to increase brand awareness among U.S. hematologists. This includes expanding the sales team by more than 20% and implementing new roles to drive product uptake.
Encouraging Performance Indicators
Approximately 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with about 300 new sites since the end of Q4. Demand grew approximately 10% in the recent four-week period, indicating the highest growth since October 2024.
Phase III Pivotal Trial in Myelofibrosis
The IMPACT MS Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis is designed to double RYTELO's commercial potential. Currently, about 85% enrolled, with interim analysis expected in the second half of 2026.
Strong Financial Position
Geron remains in a strong financial position with $457.5 million in cash and equivalents. They have access to additional funding under their debt agreement with Pharmacon if needed.
Negative Updates
RYTELO Q1 Net Revenue Decline
Q1 RYTELO net revenues were $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4 due to inventory drawdown among distributors. Demand was relatively flat, with only a 1% increase over the prior 13 weeks.
Challenges in Physician Adoption
There is hesitancy among some physicians to switch from standard care to RYTELO, largely due to lack of awareness and concerns about cytopenia management.
EU Commercial Strategy Requires Third-Party Support
Geron does not plan to independently commercialize RYTELO in Europe, relying instead on third-party partners, which could slow expansion outside the U.S.
Executive Leadership Transition
The company is still in the process of identifying a permanent Chief Executive Officer, with an announcement expected within the next six months.
Company Guidance
During the Geron Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on its strategic focus and performance metrics. Key highlights included a decrease in Q1 net revenues for RYTELO, totaling $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4, attributed to inventory drawdown among distributors. Despite a flat 1% demand growth over the prior 13 weeks, recent metrics indicated a promising 10% demand increase in April. The company identified a U.S. total addressable market of approximately 15,400 lower risk MDS patients and emphasized that about 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with one-third being new since Q4. Geron is expanding its customer-facing teams by over 20% to improve reach and messaging, and it plans to have new hires operational in Q3. Additionally, the company is pursuing commercialization strategies in the EU and advancing its Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis, anticipating an interim analysis in the second half of 2026. Operating expenses for 2025 are projected to be between $270 million and $285 million, with the company maintaining a strong financial position and access to additional funding if needed.Geron Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Geron Announces Leadership Change with New Interim CEO
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025
On March 10, 2025, John A. Scarlett, M.D. concluded his role as President, CEO, and Chairman of the Board at Geron Corporation, with Dawn C. Bir appointed as Interim President and CEO. This leadership transition is significant as it may impact Geron’s strategic direction and stakeholder interests, with Ms. Bir bringing extensive experience from her roles in various pharmaceutical companies.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.