Geron Corp (GERN)
NASDAQ:GERN
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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by continued losses and meaningful cash burn despite improving revenue, plus bearish technical signals with the stock trading below major moving averages. The latest earnings call supports the outlook with reiterated 2026 guidance, solid growth, and cost discipline, but gross-to-net headwinds, cash decline, and upcoming clinical/regulatory uncertainties cap the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue ramp and commercial adoption
Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and expanding prescriber penetration indicate durable product‑market fit. Sequential demand gains and rising account counts create a scalable commercial foundation that supports ongoing market development, predictable topline growth and reinvestment in sales and education over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn and negative free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow indicate the business is not yet self‑funding. Continued burn has already driven a quarter‑over‑quarter cash decline and, if persistent, will force external financing or major margin improvement, limiting strategic flexibility and potentially diluting shareholders over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue ramp and commercial adoption
Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and expanding prescriber penetration indicate durable product‑market fit. Sequential demand gains and rising account counts create a scalable commercial foundation that supports ongoing market development, predictable topline growth and reinvestment in sales and education over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$891.71M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)19.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth68.64%
EPS Growth50.57%
CountryUS
Employees229
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding641,521,000
10 Day Avg. Volume20,541,080
30 Day Avg. Volume19,376,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)3.90
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio-7.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-20.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.25Price Target Upside93.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$231.28M
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical t...
How the Company Makes Money
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Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and commercial story: strong revenue growth (+31% YoY), expanding demand (+6% QoQ) and disciplined cost reductions position Geron to meet 2026 guidance. Important clinical and regulatory milestones (IMpactMF enrollment, NCCN order template inclusion, peer-reviewed publication) bolster the long-term value proposition. Key risks highlighted include widening gross-to-net pressure (21% vs 13% prior year), a meaningful quarter-over-quarter cash decline (~$60M) driven by one-time and supply investments, and unresolved European commercialization/pricing decisions. On balance, the favorable revenue trajectory, cost discipline and clinical progress outweigh the manageable near-term financial and market-access headwinds.Positive Updates
Progress on ex-U.S. strategy and leadership additions
Active engagement with European medical experts, HTA work and pricing research underway with an intent to announce a commercialization approach for Europe before year-end; strengthened leadership with recruitment of a new Chief Legal Officer and two new board members.
Negative Updates
Widening gross-to-net reductions
Gross-to-net reductions rose to 21% for Q1 2026 versus 13% in Q1 2025 (driven by wider 340B utilization and expanded GPO contracting); management expects gross-to-net to remain in the low- to mid-20s for the remainder of 2026, creating pressure on realized net revenue.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Progress on ex-U.S. strategy and leadership additions
Active engagement with European medical experts, HTA work and pricing research underway with an intent to announce a commercialization approach for Europe before year-end; strengthened leadership with recruitment of a new Chief Legal Officer and two new board members.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Geron reiterated 2026 guidance calling for RYTELO net revenue of $220–$240 million and total operating expenses of $230–$240 million, while reporting Q1 2026 net revenue of $51.8 million (up 31% YoY and 8% QoQ, vs. $39.6M in Q1 2025); gross‑to‑net rose to 21% (from 13% a year ago) and is expected to be in the low‑to‑mid‑20s for the remainder of 2026. Q1 operating expenses excluding COGS were $50.4M (down ~9% YoY from $55.1M), with R&D of $15.0M (vs. $15.1M) and SG&A of $35.4M (vs. $40.0M). Cash and equivalents were approximately $341M at March 31, 2026 (versus $401M at Dec 31, 2025), reflecting annual bonuses, severance and CMC investments. Commercial KPIs included 6% QoQ demand growth, ~12% increase in prescribing accounts to ~1,450, and 33% of patient starts in the first/second‑line (rolling 12‑month); management expects a greater portion of 2026 growth in the back half of the year. IMpactMF interim analysis is projected in H2 2026 (final analysis planning H2 2028) and initial real‑world evidence is expected in H2 2026.Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 196.12M | 183.88M | 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| Gross Profit | 169.81M | 179.14M | 75.74M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| EBITDA | -40.69M | -51.92M | -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M |
| Net Income | -69.59M | -85.78M | -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.90M | -116.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 534.12M | 570.54M | 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 314.29M | 359.80M | 406.57M | 333.70M | 172.75M | 183.72M |
| Total Debt | 251.84M | 251.57M | 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 305.01M | 344.67M | 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M |
| Stockholders Equity | 229.11M | 225.87M | 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -126.30M | -111.09M | -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -125.96M | -111.04M | -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 106.66M | 107.25M | -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.44M | 2.27M | 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Positive
1.68
Price Trends
1.63
Positive
1.48
Positive
1.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
52.79
Neutral
25.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, above the 50-day MA of 1.63, and above the 200-day MA of 1.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $621.15M | 16.35 | 58.50% | ― | 617.03% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $2.02B | 4.53 | 1813.84% | ― | 157.01% | 94.31% | |
58 Neutral | $1.37B | -5.44 | -62.48% | ― | ― | -86.21% | |
52 Neutral | $1.70B | -4.79 | -145.81% | ― | -10.44% | 19.99% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $1.90B | -11.85 | -256.66% | ― | 397.28% | 27.68% | |
47 Neutral | $891.71M | -68.46 | -28.90% | ― | 68.64% | 50.57% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GERN
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Geron Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Geron Adds Seasoned Industry Leaders to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Geron Corporation’s board elected industry veterans Patricia S. Andrews and Constantine Chinoporos as Class III directors, with terms running until the 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, and appointed Andrews to the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.