Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $878.95M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 22264.23%
• EPS Growth: 39.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 636,917,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,329,221
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,901,398
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.49
• 1Y Price Target: $4.10
• Price Target Upside: 192.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(7.14%Upside)

Geron's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges and valuation concerns, partially offset by strategic initiatives and recent demand growth for RYTELO. Technical analysis suggests bearish trends, while the earnings call highlights both opportunities and risks.

Positive Factors

Patient Demand

Management is hopeful it will deliver based on early signs of progress including a ~10% demand increase from March - April.

Sales Force Expansion

Management provided details on launch strategies to drive new patient starts, including a 20% expansion to the field force.

Sales Trajectory

A positive trend is starting to emerge in the weekly sales data, which is viewed as encouraging.

Negative Factors

Inventory Drawdown

Revenues were down due to an inventory drawdown caused by overstocking in the previous quarter.

Inventory Dynamics

Rytelo net product revenues were below consensus and down due to inventory dynamics against flat demand.

Quarterly Sales Decline

Geron reported Q1 Rytelo net sales of $39MM (-17% Q/Q), which is below our estimate of $49MM and consensus of $48MM.

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geron Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics for cancer. The company's primary product candidate is imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that has shown promise in treating hematologic myeloid malignancies. Geron operates within the biotechnology sector, with a strong emphasis on research and development to advance its clinical pipeline.

How the Company Makes Money

Geron Corporation generates revenue primarily through collaboration agreements, licensing deals, and potential milestone payments related to its drug development programs. The company focuses on partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms to co-develop its lead product candidate, imetelstat. These collaborations often provide upfront payments, research funding, and royalties on future sales if the product successfully reaches the market. Additionally, Geron may earn revenue from grants and research-related funding that support its ongoing clinical trials and development efforts.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geron's financial performance shows significant challenges with profitability, marked by negative net income and cash flows, despite revenue growth and asset accumulation. The ongoing financial strain is likely due to high operational costs and increasing liabilities.

Income Statement

Geron's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability, as highlighted by negative net income and EBIT margins over the periods analyzed. Despite a sharp increase in total revenue in the TTM period, the company still reports significant net losses, affecting its overall profitability. This indicates ongoing financial strain likely due to high operational costs or expenses exceeding revenue gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates moderate financial health with a relatively stable debt-to-equity ratio. The company's equity ratio shows a reasonable proportion of equity financing, though total liabilities have been increasing, reflecting potential leverage concerns. However, the consistent increase in total assets suggests investment and growth potential.

Cash Flow

Geron's cash flow statements highlight negative free cash flow and operating cash flows, indicating cash burn likely due to ongoing investments or operational challenges. Although there are positive financing cash flows, the inability to generate positive operating cash flow is concerning for long-term sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	116.29M	76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
Gross Profit	113.80M	75.74M	-123.50M	-272.00K	610.00K	-49.80M
EBITDA	-119.87M	-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-73.92M
Net Income	-139.02M	-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.03M	-120.95M	-75.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	562.45M	594.46M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	396.88M	406.57M	333.70M	173.11M	183.72M	196.64M
Total Debt	121.78M	121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
Total Liabilities	294.21M	313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
Stockholders Equity	268.24M	280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-204.41M	-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
Operating Cash Flow	-204.34M	-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-87.77M	-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow	186.83M	334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.51, below the 50-day MA of 1.43, and below the 200-day MA of 2.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GERN.

Geron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRDN	55 Neutral	$1.18B	―	-49.41%	―	4.86%	10.13%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.55B	0.30	-61.90%	2.27%	17.11%	1.58%
IOVA	48 Neutral	$581.05M	―	-51.85%	―	11070.12%	32.07%
GERN	45 Neutral	$878.95M	―	-45.35%	―	22264.23%	39.09%
PLSE	44 Neutral	$998.34M	―	-77.86%	―	―	-1.00%
SYRE	43 Neutral	$934.88M	2.31	-50.47%	―	-100.00%	94.68%
ELVN	36 Underperform	$1.16B	―	-31.30%	―	―	12.85%

Geron Corporate Events

Geron Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On May 21, 2025, Geron Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several key proposals were approved. The meeting, conducted virtually, saw stockholders approve amendments to the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan and 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, increasing the number of shares issuable under these plans by 20,000,000 and 6,000,000 respectively. Additionally, the stockholders elected two Class II directors and ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.