Geron Corp (GERN)
NASDAQ:GERN
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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-11.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improving revenue scale and a clean, debt-free balance sheet, but is held back by large ongoing cash burn and continued losses. The latest earnings call guidance supports a credible growth trajectory with some expense discipline, while technical indicators are neutral and valuation remains pressured by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Revenue has scaled materially with a step-change in 2024 and continued growth into 2025, while gross margins near 86% indicate strong product-level economics. This durable mix supports operating leverage as volumes grow and underpins long-term margin recovery potential.
Negative Factors
Large ongoing cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business is consuming significant cash to fund operations and commercialization. Persisting cash burn increases reliance on financing, which can dilute shareholders or constrain long-term R&D and commercial investment if not moderated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Revenue has scaled materially with a step-change in 2024 and continued growth into 2025, while gross margins near 86% indicate strong product-level economics. This durable mix supports operating leverage as volumes grow and underpins long-term margin recovery potential.
Read all positive factors
Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)19.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth522.13%
EPS Growth62.68%
CountryUS
Employees229
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.05
Shares Outstanding640,544,700
10 Day Avg. Volume20,683,542
30 Day Avg. Volume19,535,388
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)3.90
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio-7.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.25Price Target Upside92.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$229.32M
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical t...
How the Company Makes Money
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Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive commercial and clinical story: substantial year-over-year revenue growth as Rytelo completed its first full commercial year, meaningful Q4 demand and prescriber gains, clear 2026 revenue guidance and a focused second-line strategy targeting ~8,000 U.S. patients. Clinical progress (fully enrolled IMPACT MF trial, multiple ISTs and upcoming real-world data) and a streamlined cost structure that targets lower operating expenses in 2026 are further positives. Offsetting risks include an operating loss in 2025 (expenses exceed revenue), a ~20% decline in cash year-over-year and higher gross-to-net deductions (expected to remain in the high teens to low 20s), plus European reimbursement and pricing uncertainty. On balance, the company appears positioned for growth with manageable near-term financial and access risks.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total net revenue for 2025 was $184,000,000 versus $76,000,000 in 2024, an increase of approximately 142% year-over-year, reflecting a full commercial year for Rytelo.
Negative Updates
Operating Loss / Expense Profile
Total operating expenses for 2025 were $255,000,000 versus revenue of $184,000,000, indicating the business remained unprofitable at the operating level in 2025 (operating expenses exceeded revenue by ~$71,000,000).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total net revenue for 2025 was $184,000,000 versus $76,000,000 in 2024, an increase of approximately 142% year-over-year, reflecting a full commercial year for Rytelo.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Geron reiterated 2026 financial guidance anchored to a 2025 base of Rytelo net revenue of $184.0M (Q4 2025 $48.0M) and total operating expenses of $255.0M, and is guiding 2026 Rytelo net revenue of $220.0M–$240.0M with a greater portion of growth expected in the back half of the year and an underlying assumption of consistent quarter‑over‑quarter demand growth, and 2026 total operating expenses of $230.0M–$240.0M (roughly a $20.0M year‑over‑year reduction at the midpoint); Q4 demand grew 9% versus Q3 and prescribing accounts rose ~13% to ~1,300 (adding ~150 accounts in Q4), first‑ and second‑line patient starts are ~30% on a rolling 12‑month basis, and the company estimates ~8,000 eligible U.S. second‑line lower‑risk MDS patients. Additional financial metrics disclosed include gross‑to‑net of 17.7% for the twelve months ended 12/31/25 (expected in the high teens to low‑20s in 2026), R&D expense of $16M (Q4)/$74M (FY2025) vs $23M (Q4)/$104M (FY2024), SG&A of $42M (Q4)/$159M (FY2025) vs $43M (Q4)/$146M (FY2024), cash/cash equivalents/restricted cash/marketable securities of ~ $400M (vs $503M at 12/31/24), and up to $125M additional potential Pharmakon financing available through 7/30/26; management said there is a path to profitability but will prioritize commercial investment and ISTs in 2026.Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 183.88M | 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| Gross Profit | 179.14M | 75.74M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M |
| EBITDA | -51.92M | -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M |
| Net Income | -85.78M | -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.90M | -116.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 570.54M | 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 359.80M | 406.57M | 333.70M | 172.75M | 183.72M |
| Total Debt | 251.57M | 121.72M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 344.67M | 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M |
| Stockholders Equity | 225.87M | 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -111.09M | -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -111.04M | -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 107.25M | -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.27M | 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Positive
1.69
Price Trends
1.63
Positive
1.47
Positive
1.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
53.50
Neutral
46.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.61, above the 50-day MA of 1.63, and above the 200-day MA of 1.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $571.53M | 5.14 | 58.50% | ― | 1647.67% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $1.30B | -4.65 | -62.48% | ― | ― | -75.31% | |
54 Neutral | $1.08B | -10.26 | -34.23% | ― | 522.13% | 62.68% | |
53 Neutral | $1.95B | -101.81 | 1813.84% | ― | 196.42% | 53.92% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $2.15B | -6.38 | -206.62% | ― | 597.19% | 0.45% | |
45 Neutral | $1.06B | -6.92 | -174.03% | ― | -44.90% | 11.49% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
GERN
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Geron Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Geron Adds Seasoned Industry Leaders to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Geron Corporation’s board elected industry veterans Patricia S. Andrews and Constantine Chinoporos as Class III directors, with terms running until the 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, and appointed Andrews to the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.