Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 522.13%
• EPS Growth: 62.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 638,355,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,977,094
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,828,803
• PEG Ratio: 0.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.70
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -22.13
• 1Y Price Target: $3.25
• Price Target Upside: 93.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $238.45M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance (continued losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and an unattractive earnings-based valuation (negative P/E). These are partially offset by constructive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a mixed but improving commercial narrative from the earnings call and recent guidance/financing actions.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

A 98% gross margin indicates that RYTELO's product economics are extremely favorable at the unit level, providing substantial room to absorb distribution, SG&A and R&D expenses. This structural profitability supports scalable margins as sales grow and underpins long-term commercial sustainability.

Strong Cash Runway

About $420M in cash and marketable securities gives Geron durable runway to fund commercial expansion and Phase 3 programs without immediate dilution. This financial cushion reduces near-term financing pressure and allows prioritized investment in sales/awareness and pivotal trials over the next 2–6 months.

Early Commercial Traction

A 15% increase in prescribing accounts and rising earlier-line patient starts signal expanding provider adoption and deeper market penetration. Sustained account growth and higher new starts are structural indicators that commercial efforts and clinical evidence are translating into durable uptake over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow reflect that current revenues and margins do not yet cover operating spend. Over a 2–6 month horizon this constrains reinvestment capacity and means Geron may need to rely on debt tranches or capital markets, raising execution and financing risk.

Ongoing Unprofitability

Despite strong gross margins, negative net income and EBIT margins show SG&A, R&D or other costs erode profitability. This structural disconnect implies management must sustain cost discipline or materially scale revenue to achieve lasting profitability, a multi-quarter operational imperative.

Strategic Restructuring Risk

A one-third workforce reduction and $18M charges are a significant structural shift to align costs with priorities but also risks near-term disruption to commercial execution, clinical programs and institutional knowledge. Execution risk and integration of a leaner team will influence results over coming quarters.

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Geron generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company does not currently have any approved products on the market, so its revenue streams are largely dependent on milestone payments from partnerships and collaborations, particularly with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships may involve upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development progress, and potential royalties on future sales of successful therapies. Additionally, Geron may receive funding through government grants or research collaborations aimed at advancing its clinical trials. The company's ability to generate revenue will significantly depend on the successful progression of its clinical candidates, securing regulatory approvals, and eventual market launch.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is improving (TTM growth of 11.53%) and gross margin is very strong (98.03%), but the company remains unprofitable with negative net income/EBIT margins. Balance sheet leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity 0.47), yet negative ROE and weak cash generation (negative operating and free cash flow) keep overall financial quality subdued.

Income Statement

Geron's income statement shows a significant improvement in revenue growth with a TTM increase of 11.53%. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains high at 98.03%, indicating strong product profitability, but the overall negative net income suggests high operational costs or other financial burdens.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, indicating manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative operating and free cash flows, and a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. Despite these challenges, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flow aligns with net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	183.40M	76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
Gross Profit	158.11M	75.74M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	-49.80M
EBITDA	-44.86M	-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-76.75M
Net Income	-79.99M	-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.90M	-116.11M	-75.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	567.38M	593.78M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	380.53M	406.57M	333.70M	172.75M	183.72M	196.28M
Total Debt	121.92M	121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
Total Liabilities	318.68M	313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
Stockholders Equity	248.71M	280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-132.82M	-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
Operating Cash Flow	-132.91M	-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.41M	-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow	168.05M	334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.67, above the 50-day MA of 1.48, and above the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.

Geron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRMD	72 Outperform	$561.77M	3.47	75.08%	―	1647.67%	―
GERN	54 Neutral	$1.07B	-13.05	-34.05%	―	522.13%	62.68%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SNDX	51 Neutral	$1.91B	-6.59	-129.32%	―	597.19%	0.45%
ANAB	49 Neutral	$1.52B	-19.53	-308.02%	―	196.42%	53.92%
QURE	46 Neutral	$962.87M	-3.56	-165.27%	―	-44.90%	11.49%
AVBP	45 Neutral	$948.23M	-5.42	-51.98%	―	―	-75.31%

Geron Corporate Events

Geron Issues 2026 Guidance Emphasizing RYTELO Growth

On January 12, 2025, Geron Corporation issued 2026 financial guidance, projecting RYTELO net product revenue of $220 million to $240 million and total operating expenses of $230 million to $240 million, signaling anticipated top-line growth alongside a year-over-year reduction in operating spending. Management said the outlook reflects a more focused commercial push for RYTELO, including tighter healthcare professional and patient targeting with expected stronger revenue in the second half of 2026, while a recent strategic restructuring is intended to streamline operations, support its LR-MDS franchise, and preserve balance sheet strength. The company highlighted expanded clinical evidence for RYTELO presented at the 2025 American Society of Hematology meeting, steps to align its cost base with its commercial and development priorities, and an amendment to its term loan facility with Pharmakon Advisors extending the window to draw additional tranches, moves that collectively underpin its drive to entrench RYTELO in LR-MDS, advance late-stage trials and position Geron as a sustainable hematology-focused player for patients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Amends Term Loan Facility to Extend Draw Deadlines

On January 5, 2026, Geron Corporation amended its existing senior secured term loan facility with investment funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors, maintaining a total capacity of up to $250 million across three tranches tied in part to revenue milestones for its product RYTELO™. The amendment primarily extends the deadline to draw the $75 million Tranche B and $50 million Tranche C loans from December 31, 2025 to July 30, 2026, and pushes the makewhole protection date for lenders from November 1, 2026 to May 1, 2027, giving Geron additional flexibility in timing future borrowings while preserving lender economics and potentially supporting its funding needs and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Announces Strategic Restructuring Plan

On December 16, 2025, Geron Corporation began implementing a strategic restructuring plan to enhance financial discipline and long-term value creation. This plan includes reducing its workforce by approximately one-third, impacting around 260 employees, with expected completion in the first quarter of 2026. The restructuring is anticipated to incur charges of about $18 million, primarily for employee severance and related costs, affecting financial results in late 2025 and early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.