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Geron Corporation (GERN)
:GERN
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Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

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Geron

(NASDAQ:GERN)

Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(17.19%Upside)
Geron's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, with ongoing net losses, negative cash flows, and valuation risks being primary concerns. While there are growth opportunities in expanding product reach and strategic investments, execution risks and the need for profitability improvements weigh heavily on the score. Technical indicators further depict a bearish sentiment, aligning with the financial challenges.
Positive Factors
Management Strategy
Management is hopeful it will deliver based on early signs of progress including a ~10% demand increase from March - April.
Sales Force Expansion
The company is currently increasing its customer-facing sales teams by more than 20%, which is expected to improve outreach and message delivery to higher decile HCPs.
Negative Factors
Launch Performance
The initial launch of GERN's lead product and first commercial drug, Rytelo, has disappointed vs. consensus expectations, with 1Q25 revenue lower quarter-over-quarter vs. 4Q24.
Prescribing Practices
Physicians anticipate limited change in their prescribing practices for Rytelo over the next year, furthering the view that the near-term sales trajectory will remain challenged.

Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGeron Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics for cancer. The company's primary product candidate is imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that has shown promise in treating hematologic myeloid malignancies. Geron operates within the biotechnology sector, with a strong emphasis on research and development to advance its clinical pipeline.
How the Company Makes MoneyGeron Corporation generates revenue primarily through collaboration agreements, licensing deals, and potential milestone payments related to its drug development programs. The company focuses on partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms to co-develop its lead product candidate, imetelstat. These collaborations often provide upfront payments, research funding, and royalties on future sales if the product successfully reaches the market. Additionally, Geron may earn revenue from grants and research-related funding that support its ongoing clinical trials and development efforts.

Geron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. While there are encouraging signs of growth and strategic investments to bolster RYTELO's market presence, the decline in Q1 revenues, challenges in physician adoption, and reliance on third-party support in the EU present significant concerns. The ongoing executive transition adds to the uncertainty.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
RYTELO U.S. Commercial Launch
RYTELO was recently approved as a first-in-class novel telomerase inhibitor for lower risk MDS with a significant market opportunity. Despite initial sales not meeting expectations, strategic investments and adjustments are being made to enhance its commercial success.
Increased Commercial Investments
The company is investing additional resources to increase brand awareness among U.S. hematologists. This includes expanding the sales team by more than 20% and implementing new roles to drive product uptake.
Encouraging Performance Indicators
Approximately 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with about 300 new sites since the end of Q4. Demand grew approximately 10% in the recent four-week period, indicating the highest growth since October 2024.
Phase III Pivotal Trial in Myelofibrosis
The IMPACT MS Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis is designed to double RYTELO's commercial potential. Currently, about 85% enrolled, with interim analysis expected in the second half of 2026.
Strong Financial Position
Geron remains in a strong financial position with $457.5 million in cash and equivalents. They have access to additional funding under their debt agreement with Pharmacon if needed.
Negative Updates
RYTELO Q1 Net Revenue Decline
Q1 RYTELO net revenues were $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4 due to inventory drawdown among distributors. Demand was relatively flat, with only a 1% increase over the prior 13 weeks.
Challenges in Physician Adoption
There is hesitancy among some physicians to switch from standard care to RYTELO, largely due to lack of awareness and concerns about cytopenia management.
EU Commercial Strategy Requires Third-Party Support
Geron does not plan to independently commercialize RYTELO in Europe, relying instead on third-party partners, which could slow expansion outside the U.S.
Executive Leadership Transition
The company is still in the process of identifying a permanent Chief Executive Officer, with an announcement expected within the next six months.
Company Guidance
During the Geron Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on its strategic focus and performance metrics. Key highlights included a decrease in Q1 net revenues for RYTELO, totaling $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4, attributed to inventory drawdown among distributors. Despite a flat 1% demand growth over the prior 13 weeks, recent metrics indicated a promising 10% demand increase in April. The company identified a U.S. total addressable market of approximately 15,400 lower risk MDS patients and emphasized that about 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with one-third being new since Q4. Geron is expanding its customer-facing teams by over 20% to improve reach and messaging, and it plans to have new hires operational in Q3. Additionally, the company is pursuing commercialization strategies in the EU and advancing its Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis, anticipating an interim analysis in the second half of 2026. Operating expenses for 2025 are projected to be between $270 million and $285 million, with the company maintaining a strong financial position and access to additional funding if needed.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Geron's financial performance is under pressure due to ongoing net losses, negative cash flows, and increasing liabilities. While there is some asset growth, the financial health remains strained, with profitability and cash flow improvements critical for future stability.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Geron's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability, as highlighted by negative net income and EBIT margins over the periods analyzed. Despite a sharp increase in total revenue in the TTM period, the company still reports significant net losses, affecting its overall profitability. This indicates ongoing financial strain likely due to high operational costs or expenses exceeding revenue gains.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates moderate financial health with a relatively stable debt-to-equity ratio. The company's equity ratio shows a reasonable proportion of equity financing, though total liabilities have been increasing, reflecting potential leverage concerns. However, the consistent increase in total assets suggests investment and growth potential.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Geron's cash flow statements highlight negative free cash flow and operating cash flows, indicating cash burn likely due to ongoing investments or operational challenges. Although there are positive financing cash flows, the inability to generate positive operating cash flow is concerning for long-term sustainability.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue76.99M237.00K596.00K1.39M253.00K
Gross Profit75.74M-123.50M-272.00K610.00K-49.80M
EBITDA-154.85M-174.78M-134.15M-111.59M-73.92M
Net Income-174.57M-184.13M-141.03M-120.95M-75.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets594.46M394.08M190.57M226.03M270.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments406.57M333.70M173.11M183.72M196.64M
Total Debt121.72M85.90M55.75M55.00M29.72M
Total Liabilities313.46M146.13M110.58M99.62M59.78M
Stockholders Equity280.32M247.95M80.00M126.42M210.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-219.30M-168.57M-127.81M-95.76M-67.05M
Operating Cash Flow-218.62M-167.74M-127.38M-95.56M-66.65M
Investing Cash Flow-106.00M-180.32M62.07M71.95M-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow334.37M362.02M87.26M48.56M168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.28
Price Trends
50DMA
1.42
Negative
100DMA
1.47
Negative
200DMA
2.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
41.86
Neutral
STOCH
12.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.38, below the 50-day MA of 1.42, and below the 200-day MA of 2.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GERN.

Geron Risk Analysis

Geron disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Geron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
55
Neutral
$770.06M-343.83%387.20%21.00%
52
Neutral
kr5.49B9.63-62.48%1.99%25.95%26.53%
48
Neutral
$887.15M-93.70%-25.83%
47
Neutral
$808.30M48.5419.87%64.53%
44
Neutral
$780.17M-241.16%6.30%29.17%
42
Neutral
$815.25M-45.35%22264.23%39.09%
39
Underperform
$791.15M-49.00%-15.71%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GERN
Geron
1.28
-3.01
-70.16%
CRMD
Cormedix
11.06
6.29
131.87%
QURE
uniQure
14.25
6.17
76.36%
SNDX
Syndax Pharmaceuticals
10.31
-13.19
-56.13%
ANAB
AnaptysBio
26.21
-10.69
-28.97%
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.
21.56
1.05
5.12%

Geron Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Geron Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Geron Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several key proposals were approved. The meeting, conducted virtually, saw stockholders approve amendments to the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan and 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, increasing the number of shares issuable under these plans by 20,000,000 and 6,000,000 respectively. Additionally, the stockholders elected two Class II directors and ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 12, 2025