Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

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Geron

(NASDAQ:GERN)

Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:

$1.50

▼(-2.60%Downside)

Geron's overall stock score is driven by financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative cash flows being significant concerns. Technical indicators provide mixed signals, while strategic initiatives in the earnings call offer potential for future improvements. However, the current valuation reflects the difficulties in achieving profitability.

Positive Factors

Expansion Strategy

Geron is expanding its commercial team by ~20% to increase product awareness.

Sales Growth

A positive trend is starting to emerge in the weekly sales data, which is viewed as encouraging.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Rytelo net product revenues were below consensus and down due to inventory dynamics against flat demand.

Sales Performance

Geron reported Q1 Rytelo net sales of $39MM (-17% Q/Q), which is below our estimate of $49MM and consensus of $48MM.

Geron (GERN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.02B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)11.90M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.24

Revenue Growth22264.23%

EPS Growth39.09%

CountryUS

Employees229

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength44

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding636,917,800

10 Day Avg. Volume12,602,846

30 Day Avg. Volume11,904,159

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.00

Price to Book (P/B)11.52

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-7.21

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90

Enterprise Value/Revenue4.10

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.09

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.37

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.10

Price Target Upside166.23% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGeron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyGeron Corporation generates revenue primarily through collaboration agreements, licensing deals, and potential milestone payments related to its drug development programs. The company focuses on partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms to co-develop its lead product candidate, imetelstat. These collaborations often provide upfront payments, research funding, and royalties on future sales if the product successfully reaches the market. Additionally, Geron may earn revenue from grants and research-related funding that support its ongoing clinical trials and development efforts.

Geron Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 16.67%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. While there are encouraging signs of growth and strategic investments to bolster RYTELO's market presence, the decline in Q1 revenues, challenges in physician adoption, and reliance on third-party support in the EU present significant concerns. The ongoing executive transition adds to the uncertainty.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

RYTELO U.S. Commercial Launch

RYTELO was recently approved as a first-in-class novel telomerase inhibitor for lower risk MDS with a significant market opportunity. Despite initial sales not meeting expectations, strategic investments and adjustments are being made to enhance its commercial success.

Increased Commercial Investments

The company is investing additional resources to increase brand awareness among U.S. hematologists. This includes expanding the sales team by more than 20% and implementing new roles to drive product uptake.

Encouraging Performance Indicators

Approximately 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with about 300 new sites since the end of Q4. Demand grew approximately 10% in the recent four-week period, indicating the highest growth since October 2024.

Phase III Pivotal Trial in Myelofibrosis

The IMPACT MS Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis is designed to double RYTELO's commercial potential. Currently, about 85% enrolled, with interim analysis expected in the second half of 2026.

Strong Financial Position

Geron remains in a strong financial position with $457.5 million in cash and equivalents. They have access to additional funding under their debt agreement with Pharmacon if needed.

Negative Updates

RYTELO Q1 Net Revenue Decline

Q1 RYTELO net revenues were $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4 due to inventory drawdown among distributors. Demand was relatively flat, with only a 1% increase over the prior 13 weeks.

Challenges in Physician Adoption

There is hesitancy among some physicians to switch from standard care to RYTELO, largely due to lack of awareness and concerns about cytopenia management.

EU Commercial Strategy Requires Third-Party Support

Geron does not plan to independently commercialize RYTELO in Europe, relying instead on third-party partners, which could slow expansion outside the U.S.

Executive Leadership Transition

The company is still in the process of identifying a permanent Chief Executive Officer, with an announcement expected within the next six months.

Company Guidance

During the Geron Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on its strategic focus and performance metrics. Key highlights included a decrease in Q1 net revenues for RYTELO, totaling $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4, attributed to inventory drawdown among distributors. Despite a flat 1% demand growth over the prior 13 weeks, recent metrics indicated a promising 10% demand increase in April. The company identified a U.S. total addressable market of approximately 15,400 lower risk MDS patients and emphasized that about 900 sites of care have utilized RYTELO, with one-third being new since Q4. Geron is expanding its customer-facing teams by over 20% to improve reach and messaging, and it plans to have new hires operational in Q3. Additionally, the company is pursuing commercialization strategies in the EU and advancing its Phase III trial in relapsed refractory myelofibrosis, anticipating an interim analysis in the second half of 2026. Operating expenses for 2025 are projected to be between $270 million and $285 million, with the company maintaining a strong financial position and access to additional funding if needed.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geron's financial performance shows significant challenges, with negative net income and cash flows indicating financial strain. While revenue growth and asset accumulation are positive, persistent net losses and increasing liabilities are concerning.

Income Statement

Negative

Geron's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability, as highlighted by negative net income and EBIT margins over the periods analyzed. Despite a sharp increase in total revenue in the TTM period, the company still reports significant net losses, affecting its overall profitability. This indicates ongoing financial strain likely due to high operational costs or expenses exceeding revenue gains.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates moderate financial health with a relatively stable debt-to-equity ratio. The company's equity ratio shows a reasonable proportion of equity financing, though total liabilities have been increasing, reflecting potential leverage concerns. However, the consistent increase in total assets suggests investment and growth potential.

Cash Flow

Negative

Geron's cash flow statements highlight negative free cash flow and operating cash flows, indicating cash burn likely due to ongoing investments or operational challenges. Although there are positive financing cash flows, the inability to generate positive operating cash flow is concerning for long-term sustainability.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
116.29M	76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
	Gross Profit
113.80M	75.74M	-123.50M	-272.00K	610.00K	-49.80M
	EBIT
-134.30M	-173.73M	-193.94M	-138.55M	-114.00M	-76.91M
	EBITDA
-119.87M	-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-73.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-139.02M	-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.03M	-120.95M	-75.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
396.88M	406.57M	333.70M	173.11M	183.72M	196.64M
	Total Assets
562.45M	594.46M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
	Total Debt
121.78M	121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
	Net Debt
38.03M	42.70M	15.88M	-1.46M	20.13M	19.43M
	Total Liabilities
294.21M	313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
	Stockholders Equity
268.24M	280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-204.41M	-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
	Operating Cash Flow
-204.34M	-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
-87.77M	-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
	Financing Cash Flow
186.83M	334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price1.54

Price Trends

50DMA

1.40

Positive

100DMA

1.84

Negative

200DMA

2.94

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.05

Negative

RSI

54.98

Neutral

STOCH

66.67

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.46, above the 50-day MA of 1.40, and below the 200-day MA of 2.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GERN.

Geron Risk Analysis

Geron disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Geron Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRDN	64 Neutral	$1.26B	―	-49.41%	―	4.86%	10.13%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.40	-45.06%	3.28%	16.75%	-0.02%
GERN	51 Neutral	$1.02B	―	-45.35%	―	22264.23%	39.09%
IOVA	48 Neutral	$794.76M	―	-51.85%	―	11070.12%	32.07%
PLSE	44 Neutral	$1.17B	―	-77.86%	―	―	-1.00%
SYRE	43 Neutral	$1.12B	2.31	-50.47%	―	-100.00%	94.68%
ELVN	36 Underperform	$1.06B	―	-31.30%	―	―	12.85%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GERN

Geron

1.54

-3.34

-68.44%

IOVA

Iovance Biotherapeutics

2.24

-6.19

-73.43%

VRDN

Viridian Therapeutics

16.09

2.94

22.36%

SYRE

Spyre Therapeutics

18.00

-14.36

-44.38%

PLSE

Pulse Biosciences

16.73

4.53

37.13%

ELVN

Enliven Therapeutics

19.60

-2.42

-10.99%

Geron Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Geron Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 27, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Geron Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several key proposals were approved. The meeting, conducted virtually, saw stockholders approve amendments to the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan and 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, increasing the number of shares issuable under these plans by 20,000,000 and 6,000,000 respectively. Additionally, the stockholders elected two Class II directors and ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.