Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $849.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 522.13%
• EPS Growth: 62.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 638,355,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,641,514
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,459,647
• PEG Ratio: 0.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.70
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -20.47
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: 191.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $254.04M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(9.49% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses and negative operating/free cash flow) despite improving revenue and high gross margin. Technicals are moderately constructive with price above key averages and positive MACD, while valuation is constrained by losses and no dividend. Earnings-call and recent event updates are mixed, showing commercial progress and strong liquidity but continued demand/uptake challenges and restructuring-related risk.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

A 98% gross margin indicates exceptionally strong product-level economics for RYTELO. As volumes scale, this margin provides meaningful operating leverage, supporting sustainable profitability potential and allowing more cash to be allocated to commercialization and late-stage trials over coming quarters.

Commercial Traction Expansion

A 15% increase in prescribing accounts and rising new patient starts (36% vs. 30%) signal expanding physician adoption and deeper commercial penetration. This broadened ordering base creates a more durable revenue foundation as awareness initiatives and targeted outreach progress over the next several quarters.

Financing Flexibility

The term loan amendment extending draw deadlines, combined with reported cash resources, provides material funding optionality. This reduces near-term liquidity risk, supports ongoing commercialization and the Phase 3 program, and lowers likelihood of urgent dilutive financing within the 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows reflect ongoing cash burn that limits organic funding for commercial expansion and trials. Without rapid revenue scale or external draws, the company faces continued financing needs that could restrict investment and increase refinancing risk in coming quarters.

Product Uptake Challenges

A quarter-over-quarter demand decline and discontinuations in later-line patients highlight retention and positioning issues. Difficulty shifting RYTELO into earlier treatment lines risks capping durable revenue growth and requires sustained education and evidence generation to change prescribing patterns over months.

Restructuring & Leadership Turnover

A one-third workforce reduction and multiple executive departures introduce execution risk during a critical commercialization ramp. While cost savings may improve margins, such disruption can slow launches, weaken sales execution and delay trial or EU commercialization timelines over the medium term.

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Geron generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company does not currently have any approved products on the market, so its revenue streams are largely dependent on milestone payments from partnerships and collaborations, particularly with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships may involve upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development progress, and potential royalties on future sales of successful therapies. Additionally, Geron may receive funding through government grants or research collaborations aimed at advancing its clinical trials. The company's ability to generate revenue will significantly depend on the successful progression of its clinical candidates, securing regulatory approvals, and eventual market launch.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is improving (TTM up 11.53%) and gross margin is very high (98.03%), but the business remains unprofitable with negative net/EBIT margins and negative ROE. Cash flow is a key weakness, with negative operating and free cash flow and a sharp decline in free-cash-flow growth.

Income Statement

Geron's income statement shows a significant improvement in revenue growth with a TTM increase of 11.53%. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains high at 98.03%, indicating strong product profitability, but the overall negative net income suggests high operational costs or other financial burdens.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, indicating manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative operating and free cash flows, and a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. Despite these challenges, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flow aligns with net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	183.40M	76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
Gross Profit	158.11M	75.74M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	-49.80M
EBITDA	-44.86M	-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-76.75M
Net Income	-79.99M	-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.90M	-116.11M	-75.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	567.38M	593.78M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	380.53M	406.57M	333.70M	172.75M	183.72M	196.28M
Total Debt	121.92M	121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
Total Liabilities	318.68M	313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
Stockholders Equity	248.71M	280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-132.82M	-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
Operating Cash Flow	-132.91M	-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.41M	-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
Financing Cash Flow	168.05M	334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.35, above the 50-day MA of 1.30, and above the 200-day MA of 1.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GERN.

Geron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRMD	72 Outperform	$610.62M	3.91	75.08%	―	1647.67%	―
SNDX	55 Neutral	$1.79B	-5.70	-129.32%	―	597.19%	0.45%
GERN	52 Neutral	$849.01M	―	-29.57%	―	522.13%	62.68%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ANAB	49 Neutral	$1.31B	-16.97	-308.02%	―	196.42%	53.92%
QURE	46 Neutral	$1.42B	―	-165.27%	―	-44.90%	11.49%
AVBP	45 Neutral	$931.72M	-5.31	-51.98%	―	―	-75.31%

Geron Corporate Events

Geron Issues 2026 Guidance Emphasizing RYTELO Growth

On January 12, 2025, Geron Corporation issued 2026 financial guidance, projecting RYTELO net product revenue of $220 million to $240 million and total operating expenses of $230 million to $240 million, signaling anticipated top-line growth alongside a year-over-year reduction in operating spending. Management said the outlook reflects a more focused commercial push for RYTELO, including tighter healthcare professional and patient targeting with expected stronger revenue in the second half of 2026, while a recent strategic restructuring is intended to streamline operations, support its LR-MDS franchise, and preserve balance sheet strength. The company highlighted expanded clinical evidence for RYTELO presented at the 2025 American Society of Hematology meeting, steps to align its cost base with its commercial and development priorities, and an amendment to its term loan facility with Pharmakon Advisors extending the window to draw additional tranches, moves that collectively underpin its drive to entrench RYTELO in LR-MDS, advance late-stage trials and position Geron as a sustainable hematology-focused player for patients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Amends Term Loan Facility to Extend Draw Deadlines

On January 5, 2026, Geron Corporation amended its existing senior secured term loan facility with investment funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors, maintaining a total capacity of up to $250 million across three tranches tied in part to revenue milestones for its product RYTELO™. The amendment primarily extends the deadline to draw the $75 million Tranche B and $50 million Tranche C loans from December 31, 2025 to July 30, 2026, and pushes the makewhole protection date for lenders from November 1, 2026 to May 1, 2027, giving Geron additional flexibility in timing future borrowings while preserving lender economics and potentially supporting its funding needs and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Announces Strategic Restructuring Plan

On December 16, 2025, Geron Corporation began implementing a strategic restructuring plan to enhance financial discipline and long-term value creation. This plan includes reducing its workforce by approximately one-third, impacting around 260 employees, with expected completion in the first quarter of 2026. The restructuring is anticipated to incur charges of about $18 million, primarily for employee severance and related costs, affecting financial results in late 2025 and early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Announces Executive Leadership Transitions

On October 10, 2025, Geron Corporation announced the resignation of board member Dr. Gaurav Aggarwal and the decision of Dr. V. Bryan Lawlis not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Additionally, on October 15, 2025, executives Andrew J. Grethlein and Jim Ziegler departed from their roles, with Grethlein transitioning to a consulting role to assist with the transition. On October 13, 2025, Geron announced several executive leadership transitions, appointing Ahmed ElNawawi as the new Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer, along with three other seasoned executives to strengthen its leadership team. These changes aim to align the company’s leadership structure with its strategic priorities, focusing on driving growth and maximizing the potential of RYTELO®.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.