Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.40%
• EPS Growth: 536.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 139,197,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,443,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,136,634
• PEG Ratio: -1.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.57
• 1Y Price Target: $34.00
• Price Target Upside: 120.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(7.07% Upside)

Geo Group's strong earnings call and undervalued valuation are positive indicators, but technical analysis suggests bearish momentum. Financial performance shows growth potential, but liquidity concerns need addressing.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geo Group (GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and community reentry services in the United States and internationally. The company operates a diverse portfolio of facilities including prisons, jails, and residential reentry centers, catering to federal, state, and local government clients. GEO also offers rehabilitation and educational programs aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety, positioning itself as a comprehensive service provider in the criminal justice sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Geo Group primarily generates revenue through contracts with government agencies to manage and operate correctional facilities and community rehabilitation programs. The company earns income from daily per diem rates paid by federal, state, and local governments for housing inmates. Additionally, GEO has revenue streams from providing services such as electronic monitoring, rehabilitation programs, and other correctional services. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and law enforcement agencies bolster its earnings, as well as the increasing demand for private management of correctional facilities due to budget constraints faced by public institutions.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geo Group shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, cash flow concerns due to a significant decline in free cash flow growth pose potential liquidity challenges.

Income Statement

Geo Group's income statement shows a solid revenue growth rate of 3.23% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin has significantly improved to 80.62% TTM, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 3.69% TTM, suggesting room for improvement in cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved to 11.94% and 17.18% TTM, respectively, showing enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is at 6.48% TTM, which is a positive sign of profitability but still has room for growth. The equity ratio stands at 39.91% TTM, suggesting a stable capital structure but highlighting potential risks if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -79.89% TTM, which is a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 TTM, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.55 TTM suggests limited free cash flow availability for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.53B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.02B	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M	578.60M
EBITDA	570.06M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M	385.64M
Net Income	238.10M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.81B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.94M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.63B	1.81B	1.89B	2.07B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	976.21M	913.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	26.34M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	208.41M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	122.31M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.92M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.00, below the 50-day MA of 18.36, and below the 200-day MA of 24.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	77 Outperform	$1.44B	32.85	25.03%	1.30%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BRC	71 Outperform	$3.44B	17.85	16.69%	1.28%	11.20%	0.71%
MSA	70 Outperform	$6.09B	21.91	23.35%	1.35%	3.31%	2.58%
ADT	70 Outperform	$6.77B	11.79	17.24%	2.71%	4.77%	-22.78%
BCO	68 Neutral	$4.63B	28.18	61.95%	0.93%	3.07%	48.57%
GEO	65 Neutral	$2.12B	8.98	16.73%	―	4.40%	536.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Geo Group Corporate Events

GEO Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Expands Share Buyback

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider specializing in the design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers across several countries.

Geo Group Increases Share Repurchase Authorization

On November 6, 2025, GEO announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase in the share repurchase authorization to $500 million and extended the expiration date to December 31, 2029. The company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total revenues of $682.3 million and net income of $173.9 million. GEO has made significant progress in securing new contracts and expanding its services, which are expected to generate substantial revenue growth in the coming years. The company is also focused on strengthening its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Enters Joint Venture for Florida Facility

The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a joint venture agreement to provide management services at the North Florida Detention Facility in Baker County, Florida, which has a capacity of 1,310 beds. This strategic move is likely to enhance GEO’s operational footprint in the correctional facility management sector and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Faces Legal Setback in Wage Case

On August 13, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. faced a legal setback when the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied its petition for a rehearing in cases concerning the enforcement of Washington State minimum wage laws for detainees at the Northwest ICE Processing Center. This decision upholds a previous unfavorable jury verdict from October 2021, which resulted in a $23.2 million judgment against GEO, further increased by $14.4 million in attorney’s fees and costs. The company plans to seek a stay and petition the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the decision violates the Supremacy Clause and established legal principles.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

Geo Group Inc’s recent earnings call conveyed an overall positive sentiment, highlighting significant achievements such as securing new contracts with ICE, achieving record utilization levels, and successful financial restructuring. However, the company also acknowledged challenges, including stable ISAP participant numbers and start-up expenses for new facilities, which present areas for improvement.