Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.61B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 137.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: 0.50%
• EPS Growth: -71.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 141,342,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,066,725
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,930,768
• PEG Ratio: -24.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.62
• 1Y Price Target: $37.80
• Price Target Upside: 48.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(10.02%Upside)

Geo Group's overall score reflects a balanced view between strong operational cash flow and strategic corporate actions against high leverage and valuation concerns. The company's future growth prospects, driven by new contracts and debt reduction initiatives, are promising but tempered by current high expenses and valuation challenges.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is a leading provider of government-outsourced services specializing in the design, financing, development, and operation of correctional, detention, and community reentry facilities. Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, GEO operates in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The company's core services include the management of correctional and detention facilities, residential reentry centers, and the provision of electronic monitoring and supervision services. GEO also offers rehabilitation and educational programs aimed at reducing recidivism and supporting successful community reentry for individuals.

How the Company Makes Money

The GEO Group generates revenue primarily through contracts with government agencies at the federal, state, and local levels. These contracts typically involve the management and operation of correctional and detention facilities, where GEO is paid a per diem rate for each individual housed in its facilities. Additionally, GEO earns income from its community-based services, including residential reentry centers and electronic monitoring services, which provide supervision and support for individuals transitioning back into society. GEO's revenue streams are further supported by long-term contracts, often with fixed annual payments, providing a stable financial outlook. Partnerships with governments and a focus on rehabilitation and reentry programs contribute significantly to GEO's earnings by aligning with broader public policy goals aimed at reducing incarceration rates and enhancing public safety.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geo Group presents a mixed financial position. While operational efficiency is evident with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, net profitability is a concern. The balance sheet is leveraged, which may affect financial stability, but the equity position is sustained. Cash flow metrics are strong, highlighting effective cash generation and management.

Income Statement

The Geo Group's revenue has shown modest growth, with a revenue increase from 2024 to 2025 TTM. However, the gross profit margin is consistently high due to the company's unique cost structure. Net profit margin remains low, indicating challenges in managing non-operational costs. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent operational efficiency despite a slight decline in EBIT over the periods.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the company has maintained a stable equity ratio, indicating a reasonable level of assets funded by equity. Return on equity fluctuates, highlighting variable net income results impacting shareholders' returns.

Cash Flow

Geo Group demonstrates strong operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating efficient cash generation. Free cash flow has decreased from previous periods, but the company maintains a positive cash flow, which supports ongoing operations. The ratio of free cash flow to net income is healthy, signifying effective cash management.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.42B	668.94M	713.00M	627.57M	571.77M
EBITDA	355.44M	482.12M	516.87M	423.26M	385.23M
Net Income	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.81B	1.89B	2.08B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	975.02M	912.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 25.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.32, below the 50-day MA of 25.54, and below the 200-day MA of 26.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	79 Outperform	$1.10B	25.15	27.48%	1.66%	-1.05%	-2.78%
ADT	76 Outperform	$6.95B	12.52	17.13%	2.63%	3.80%	-3.18%
REZI	75 Outperform	$3.65B	72.15	2.58%	―	14.02%	-69.91%
ARLO	73 Outperform	$1.66B	―	-21.34%	―	0.27%	-18.75%
BCO	72 Outperform	$3.77B	24.06	54.50%	1.11%	1.97%	41.88%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.04B	15.74	4.60%	2.11%	3.27%	-26.87%
GEO	63 Neutral	$3.61B	137.05	2.12%	―	0.50%	-71.85%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Expands Credit Facility and Lowers Debt

On July 14, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. announced an amendment to its Credit Agreement, increasing its revolving credit facility from $310 million to $450 million and extending its maturity to July 14, 2030. The amendment also lowered interest rates and increased the company’s capacity to make restricted payments over the next five years. Prior to this, GEO repaid $132 million of its Term Loan B and plans to use proceeds from the sale of a facility to reduce further debt. These actions are expected to lower GEO’s total net debt to approximately $1.47 billion, positioning the company for potential future capital returns and demonstrating growing support from banking partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Extends Executive Chairman’s Term and Compensation

On July 7, 2025, Geo Group, Inc. extended the employment term of Executive Chairman George C. Zoley to April 2, 2029, and increased his compensation package, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leveraging his expertise amidst unprecedented business opportunities. Similarly, adjustments were made to CEO J. David Donahue’s compensation, recognizing his extensive experience as vital to guiding the company through current opportunities in the corrections and detention industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Sells Lawton Facility to Oklahoma

On June 3, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement to sell the Lawton Correctional Facility in Oklahoma to the State of Oklahoma for $312 million. The sale, expected to close on July 25, 2025, will transition facility operations to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections, a current customer of GEO. This transaction is anticipated to significantly reduce GEO’s debt and enhance long-term shareholder value, reflecting the intrinsic value of the company’s owned facilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.