Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.40%
• EPS Growth: 536.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 139,197,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,443,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,136,634
• PEG Ratio: -1.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.57
• 1Y Price Target: $34.00
• Price Target Upside: 120.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(20.05% Upside)

Geo Group's overall score reflects strong strategic progress with significant contract wins and debt reduction, enhancing future revenue prospects. However, liquidity concerns from declining free cash flow and mixed technical indicators temper the outlook. The valuation suggests potential undervaluation, providing an opportunity for growth-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Contract Wins

The significant contract wins indicate strong demand for GEO's services, enhancing revenue visibility and supporting long-term growth.

Debt Reduction

Reducing debt improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing GEO to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic uncertainties better.

ICE Detainee Capacity

Expanding ICE detainee capacity strengthens GEO's market position, ensuring a steady revenue stream from government contracts.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

The decline in free cash flow poses liquidity risks, potentially limiting GEO's ability to reinvest in its business and manage debt.

Government Contract Delays

Delays in government contracts can disrupt revenue flow and operational planning, impacting GEO's financial performance.

Legal and Regulatory Challenges

Potential regulatory scrutiny could affect GEO's reputation and contract renewals, posing long-term operational risks.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geo Group (GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and community reentry services in the United States and internationally. The company operates a network of facilities, including private prisons, immigration detention centers, and community-based rehabilitation programs. GEO's core services include the management and operation of correctional facilities, the provision of treatment and rehabilitation programs, and the delivery of electronic monitoring and other community supervision services.

How the Company Makes Money

Geo Group generates revenue primarily through contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies to manage correctional facilities and provide detention services. The company earns income from per diem rates for housing inmates, which are negotiated based on the type of facility and the services provided. Additionally, GEO offers rehabilitation programs that may also receive funding through government contracts. Significant revenue streams include partnerships with various governmental bodies, including the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for detention services, as well as contracts with state correctional departments. The company's financial performance can be influenced by factors such as changes in government policy regarding incarceration, immigration laws, and the overall demand for private detention services.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geo Group shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, cash flow concerns due to a significant decline in free cash flow growth pose potential liquidity challenges.

Income Statement

Geo Group's income statement shows a solid revenue growth rate of 3.23% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin has significantly improved to 80.62% TTM, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 3.69% TTM, suggesting room for improvement in cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved to 11.94% and 17.18% TTM, respectively, showing enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is at 6.48% TTM, which is a positive sign of profitability but still has room for growth. The equity ratio stands at 39.91% TTM, suggesting a stable capital structure but highlighting potential risks if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -79.89% TTM, which is a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 TTM, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.55 TTM suggests limited free cash flow availability for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.53B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.02B	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M	578.60M
EBITDA	570.06M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M	385.64M
Net Income	238.10M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.81B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.94M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.63B	1.81B	1.89B	2.07B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	976.21M	913.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	26.34M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	208.41M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	122.31M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.92M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.59, below the 50-day MA of 16.89, and below the 200-day MA of 23.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	80 Outperform	$1.47B	33.63	25.03%	1.26%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BRC	75 Outperform	$3.67B	19.00	16.69%	1.23%	11.20%	0.71%
MSA	75 Outperform	$6.36B	22.87	23.35%	1.31%	3.31%	2.58%
BCO	71 Outperform	$4.85B	29.54	61.95%	0.89%	3.07%	48.57%
GEO	69 Neutral	$2.12B	8.98	16.73%	―	4.40%	536.79%
ADT	69 Neutral	$6.71B	11.68	17.24%	2.74%	4.77%	-22.78%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group’s Legal VP Joe Negron Retires

On December 4, 2025, Joe Negron, the Senior Vice President, Legal Services, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary of The GEO Group, Inc., announced his retirement effective December 31, 2025. Mr. Negron, who has been with the company since 2019, will continue to serve as a consultant for two years to assist with legal, regulatory, and compliance matters. His outstanding equity awards will continue to vest based on performance criteria.

Geo Group Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility

On November 13, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. announced a significant amendment to its Credit Agreement, which involves removing a specific leverage ratio requirement from a portion of the agreement’s restricted payments covenant. This change may impact the company’s financial flexibility and operations, potentially affecting its stakeholders and market positioning.

Geo Group Increases Share Repurchase Authorization

On November 6, 2025, GEO announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase in the share repurchase authorization to $500 million and extended the expiration date to December 31, 2029. The company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total revenues of $682.3 million and net income of $173.9 million. GEO has made significant progress in securing new contracts and expanding its services, which are expected to generate substantial revenue growth in the coming years. The company is also focused on strengthening its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value.

Geo Group Enters Joint Venture for Florida Facility

The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a joint venture agreement to provide management services at the North Florida Detention Facility in Baker County, Florida, which has a capacity of 1,310 beds. This strategic move is likely to enhance GEO’s operational footprint in the correctional facility management sector and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder relations.