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Geo Group
(NYSE:GEO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(66.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong, guidance-raising earnings call with major contract wins and margin/earnings momentum. This is tempered by mixed fundamentals—especially weak cash conversion and negative free cash flow alongside meaningful leverage—and by technically overbought conditions that increase near-term volatility risk. Valuation is reasonable but not a major catalyst without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Material contract wins / backlog
Large new multi-year government contract awards (up to ~$520M annual) materially increase visible backlog and strengthen recurring service revenue. Durable contract wins raise medium-term revenue visibility, underpin capacity utilization and support steady cash flows as facilities and programs scale.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion / negative FCF
Operating cash flow covering ~40% of net income and a negative FCF position indicate weak cash conversion. This constrains capital allocation, limits buffer for debt repayment or investment, and creates persistent financing and liquidity risks if cash conversion doesn't normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material contract wins / backlog
Large new multi-year government contract awards (up to ~$520M annual) materially increase visible backlog and strengthen recurring service revenue. Durable contract wins raise medium-term revenue visibility, underpin capacity utilization and support steady cash flows as facilities and programs scale.
Read all positive factors
Geo Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Details income from different business segments, offering a view into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Details income from different business segments, offering a view into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGeo Group (GEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth12.74%
EPS Growth919.77%
CountryUS
Employees16,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.99
Shares Outstanding133,618,290
10 Day Avg. Volume2,532,292
30 Day Avg. Volume2,006,341
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-18.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.00Price Target Upside82.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.00B
Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. The company's op...
How the Company Makes Money
GEO makes money primarily by contracting with government agencies to operate and manage correctional and detention facilities and to provide reentry and community-based services. Its core revenue model is service-contract driven: government custom...
Geo Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: significant YoY growth in revenue (+17%), net income (+96%), and adjusted EBITDA (+32%), material new contract wins (~$520M incremental annual revenue potential), raised 2026 guidance, active share repurchases, and improved margins (lower G&A as % of revenue). Offsetting risks include a recent decline in ICE census (24K to 21K), payment timing delays from the DHS partial shutdown, higher operating expenses from facility activations, and uncertainty around timing/realization of potential facility sales and paused government warehouse plans. On balance, the positive growth drivers, backlog of contract wins, margin improvements, and increased guidance materially outweigh the near-term operational and timing risks.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Q1 2026 revenue increased to $705.2M from $604.6M in Q1 2025, a 17% year-over-year increase driven by new contracts and facility activations.
Negative Updates
Decline in ICE Census
ICE census across GEO facilities fell from a peak of ~24,000 early in the year to ~21,000, which the company attributes to a DHS leadership transition and an 82-day partial DHS government shutdown; this reduced utilization and slowed intake/ramp at reactivated facilities.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Q1 2026 revenue increased to $705.2M from $604.6M in Q1 2025, a 17% year-over-year increase driven by new contracts and facility activations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GEO raised its 2026 outlook, now forecasting full-year GAAP net income of $153–$166 million (EPS $1.10–$1.25) on revenues of $2.95–$3.10 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $525–$545 million, a ~30% effective tax rate and total CapEx of $137.5–$162.5 million; Q2 guidance calls for GAAP net income of $33–$39 million (EPS $0.25–$0.29) on revenues of $715–$725 million and adjusted EBITDA of $130–$135 million. At quarter end the company reported roughly $80 million cash, ~$1.61 billion total debt and ~$1.53 billion net debt with net leverage below 3.2x adjusted EBITDA, a $100 million expansion of its revolver, ~133.7 million shares outstanding, ~3.6 million shares repurchased in Q1 for ~$50 million (8.5 million repurchased YTD for ~$141 million) and ~$359 million remaining under a $500 million repurchase authorization. Management highlighted upside not included in guidance — ~6,000 idle high‑security beds that could generate in excess of $300 million annually at full occupancy, ISAP counts of ~180–181k participants (now >48k on GPS up from 17k and ~131k on SmartLink down from ~159k), a skip‑tracing contract that could reach up to $60 million per year, and ~ $60 million of incremental annual transportation revenue — while noting working‑capital and timing pressures from DHS funding dynamics.Geo Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.73B | 2.63B | 2.42B | 2.41B | 2.38B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 663.07M | 2.42B | 668.94M | 713.84M | 627.57M |
| EBITDA | 620.60M | 631.09M | 355.44M | 482.12M | 527.29M | 457.46M |
| Net Income | 273.15M | 254.37M | 31.97M | 107.33M | 171.81M | 77.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.81B | 3.84B | 3.63B | 3.70B | 3.76B | 4.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.22M | 69.00M | 76.90M | 93.97M | 95.07M | 506.49M |
| Total Debt | 1.66B | 1.73B | 1.81B | 1.89B | 2.07B | 3.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.32B | 2.34B | 2.30B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 3.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.51B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 1.17B | 976.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.60M | -124.90M | 163.54M | 211.93M | 206.39M | 213.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 157.87M | 72.61M | 242.24M | 284.93M | 296.41M | 282.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 114.64M | 105.68M | -101.72M | -60.57M | 2.96M | -53.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -253.53M | -185.66M | -168.89M | -208.08M | -699.10M | 11.26M |
Geo Group Technical Analysis
Positive
18.60
Price Trends
23.37
Positive
19.59
Positive
18.53
Positive
Market Momentum
1.99
Negative
80.74
Negative
73.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.32, below the 50-day MA of 23.37, and above the 200-day MA of 18.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.74 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEO.
Geo Group Risk Analysis
Geo Group disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geo Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geo Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $4.25B | 20.47 | 16.46% | 1.23% | 11.11% | 8.52% | |
74 Outperform | $6.58B | 22.94 | 22.02% | 1.30% | 5.56% | 2.16% | |
70 Outperform | $5.05B | 8.30 | 16.74% | 2.73% | 3.29% | 22.63% | |
68 Neutral | $1.33B | 36.20 | 20.86% | 1.29% | 8.83% | -16.34% | |
65 Neutral | $4.06B | 15.26 | 18.49% | ― | 12.74% | 919.77% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $3.87B | 21.78 | 67.82% | 0.85% | 7.31% | 14.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GEO
Geo Group
30.36
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26.76%
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NSSC
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37.29
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ADT
Adt
6.39
-1.83
-22.26%
Geo Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Geo Group Shareholders Back Board, Auditors and Pay
Positive
May 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on April 28, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. saw all seven board nominees elected to one-year terms, with each candidate receiving strong majority support despite some variation in opposition levels. The a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.