Geo Group Inc (GEO)
NYSE:GEO
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Geo Group
(NYSE:GEO)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(42.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is anchored by mixed fundamentals: a strong earnings rebound and improving leverage are tempered by sharply weaker 2025 cash flow and negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, but technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call is moderately positive on contract wins and 2026 growth outlook, though near-term margin and funding uncertainties cap the upside.
Positive Factors
Record Contract Wins
A large pipeline of secured contracts (~$520M annualized) creates durable revenue visibility as activations stagger through the year. This backlog supports multi-period top-line growth, justifies incremental staffing/capex, and raises the base of recurring government fee income beyond one-off quarter effects.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
A sharp drop in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow signal fragile earnings-to-cash conversion and heightened working-capital or capex needs. This weakens self-funded growth capacity, raises refinancing and liquidity reliance, and constrains sustainable reinvestment or durable dividend/buyback funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Contract Wins
A large pipeline of secured contracts (~$520M annualized) creates durable revenue visibility as activations stagger through the year. This backlog supports multi-period top-line growth, justifies incremental staffing/capex, and raises the base of recurring government fee income beyond one-off quarter effects.
Read all positive factors
Geo Group (GEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth4.40%
EPS Growth536.79%
CountryUS
Employees16,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding134,361,650
10 Day Avg. Volume2,420,221
30 Day Avg. Volume3,041,610
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-18.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.33Price Target Upside127.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.97B
Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Elec...
How the Company Makes Money
GEO primarily makes money by contracting with government agencies to operate, manage, or lease correctional and detention facilities and to provide related reentry and supervision services. A major revenue stream comes from long-term contracts and...
Geo Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Details income from different business segments, offering a view into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Details income from different business segments, offering a view into which areas are driving growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGeo Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted substantial operational wins and strong financial improvements: record new business awards (~$520M potential annualized revenue), major facility activations (~$400M annualized), Q4 and full-year 2025 profit and adjusted EBITDA growth, meaningful ISAP contract momentum and technology/case-management mix that can raise per-participant economics, plus balance sheet actions (asset sales, $100M revolver expansion, buybacks). However, near-term headwinds include higher operating and start-up expenses, temporary margin compression in monitoring, government funding and procurement uncertainty (potential shutdowns and warehouse initiative), a $38M litigation reserve, and Q1 2026 guidance below Q4 run-rate. Overall, the positive operational momentum, sizable contract wins, and improving liquidity/return of capital outweigh the near-term challenges and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record New Business Wins
Awarded new or expanded contracts representing up to approximately $520 million in new incremental annualized revenue (largest amount of new business in company history) with staggered activations expected to primarily normalize by year-end.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Costs and Start-Up Expenses
Operating expenses increased ~18.5% in Q4 2025 versus prior-year Q4 driven by activation of new ICE facility contracts and increased occupancy; company expects temporary margin compression in early 2026 due to start-up expenses tied to new activations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record New Business Wins
Awarded new or expanded contracts representing up to approximately $520 million in new incremental annualized revenue (largest amount of new business in company history) with staggered activations expected to primarily normalize by year-end.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GEO issued full-year 2026 guidance calling for GAAP net income of $0.99–$1.07 per diluted share on revenues of $2.9–$3.1 billion and an effective tax rate of ~28%, with adjusted EBITDA of $490–$510 million and total capital expenditures of $120–$155 million; first‑quarter 2026 guidance is GAAP net income of $0.17–$0.19 per diluted share on revenues of $680–$690 million and adjusted EBITDA of $107–$112 million. Management said the outlook assumes some modest organic growth in H2 2026, includes start‑up expenses that temporarily compress margins (with expectations that margins and adjusted EBITDA run‑rate will normalize and improve exiting the year), and that Q1 is pressured by front‑loaded payroll taxes, two fewer days and no skip‑tracing revenue initially. They also noted liquidity and balance‑sheet context—$70 million cash, ~$1.65 billion total debt (current net debt ~ $1.5 billion) and a $100 million expansion of the revolving credit facility—while flagging upside from ISAP mix shifts, secured‑services growth and skip‑tracing ramp later in the year.Geo Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.63B | 2.42B | 2.41B | 2.38B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 663.07M | 2.42B | 668.94M | 713.84M | 627.57M |
| EBITDA | 631.09M | 355.44M | 482.12M | 527.29M | 457.46M |
| Net Income | 254.37M | 31.97M | 107.33M | 171.81M | 77.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.84B | 3.63B | 3.70B | 3.76B | 4.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.00M | 76.90M | 93.97M | 95.07M | 506.49M |
| Total Debt | 1.73B | 1.81B | 1.89B | 2.07B | 3.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.34B | 2.30B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 3.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 1.17B | 976.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -124.90M | 163.54M | 211.93M | 206.39M | 213.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 72.61M | 242.24M | 284.93M | 296.41M | 282.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 105.68M | -101.72M | -60.57M | 2.96M | -53.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -185.66M | -168.89M | -208.08M | -699.10M | 11.26M |
Geo Group Technical Analysis
Positive
13.31
Price Trends
15.66
Positive
15.96
Positive
18.73
Negative
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
68.09
Neutral
71.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.02, below the 50-day MA of 15.66, and below the 200-day MA of 18.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEO.
Geo Group Risk Analysis
Geo Group disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geo Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geo Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.42B | 27.53 | 27.45% | 1.29% | -2.28% | -9.94% | |
72 Outperform | $6.40B | 22.52 | 21.82% | 1.30% | 3.31% | 2.58% | |
71 Outperform | $3.81B | 21.28 | 16.60% | 1.23% | 11.20% | 0.71% | |
70 Outperform | $5.43B | 10.53 | 16.19% | 2.73% | 4.77% | -22.78% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $2.47B | 8.86 | 17.69% | ― | 4.40% | 536.79% | |
56 Neutral | $4.25B | 24.49 | 79.36% | 0.85% | 3.07% | 48.57% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GEO
Geo Group
18.42
-9.00
-32.82%
BRC
Brady
80.73
17.28
27.23%
BCO
Brink's Company
103.32
21.00
25.51%
MSA
MSA Safety
165.12
36.52
28.40%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
39.87
19.91
99.78%
ADT
Adt
6.62
-0.93
-12.34%
Geo Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Geo Group Announces CFO Transition and Leadership Continuity
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
The GEO Group announced on March 5, 2026, that Chief Financial Officer Mark J. Suchinski will leave the company effective March 31, 2026, as he relocates out-of-state and moves to another industry, marking a planned leadership transition in its fi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Geo Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reorganization
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 6, 2026, GEO’s Chief Executive Officer J. David Donahue notified the company that he will retire effective February 28, 2026, and subsequently signed a separation agreement on February 9, 2026, that provides for continued vesting...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Geo Group Upsizes Revolving Credit Facility for Flexibility
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 20, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility commitments by $100 million, from $450 million to $550 million, while reducing the amount of additional incremental debt it may seek in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.