Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.18B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: 4.40%
• EPS Growth: 536.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 139,197,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,006,911
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,461,132
• PEG Ratio: -1.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.37
• 1Y Price Target: $34.00
• Price Target Upside: 115.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(26.98% Upside)

The score is led by improving operating margins and positive revenue trends, plus constructive earnings-call-driven growth and deleveraging progress. Offsetting factors are the steep free cash flow deterioration and a technically stretched near-term setup (high RSI/Stoch and still below the 200-day average), while the low P/E provides valuation support.

Positive Factors

Contract Wins / Revenue Backlog

Securing >$460M of new and expanded annualized contracts materially increases recurring revenue backlog and expands government relationships. These long‑term awards enhance revenue visibility, boost facility utilization, and create scale across detention, transport and reentry services that support sustained earnings over multiple years.

Improving Profitability

Very high gross margin and improved EBIT/EBITDA margins reflect durable operational efficiency in facility management and program delivery. Sustained margin recovery increases cash flow conversion potential, supports reinvestment, and provides a buffer to absorb contract start‑up or pricing headwinds over the medium term.

Balance Sheet Flexibility

An additional $100M revolver commitment combined with prior net debt reduction (~$275M) meaningfully improves liquidity and lowers refinancing risk. Stronger borrowing capacity and amended covenants increase resilience to contract timing delays and fund capital allocation, making strategic investments or deleveraging more feasible over time.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Deterioration

A near‑80% decline in free cash flow growth materially weakens the company’s ability to fund capex, reduce debt, or sustain buybacks from operations. Even with operating cash to net income around 0.56, persistent FCF weakness raises dependence on debt or capital markets and reduces financial flexibility over several quarters.

Legal / Contingent Liabilities

A $38M contingent litigation reserve highlights meaningful legal and regulatory exposure tied to detainee wage claims. Such contingent liabilities can recur or escalate, increasing compliance and settlement costs, complicating contract renewals, and creating reputational risk that impairs long‑term contracting with government counterparty clients.

Contract Pricing Pressure (ISAP)

Reduced pricing on the ISAP award establishes a lower revenue and margin baseline for a large participant program. Given scale, weaker pricing materially compresses long‑term margins and limits upside from participant growth, reflecting constrained pricing power in competitive government procurements and pressuring sustainable profitability.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Geo Group generates revenue primarily through contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies to manage correctional facilities and provide detention services. The company earns income from per diem rates for housing inmates, which are negotiated based on the type of facility and the services provided. Additionally, GEO offers rehabilitation programs that may also receive funding through government contracts. Significant revenue streams include partnerships with various governmental bodies, including the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for detention services, as well as contracts with state correctional departments. The company's financial performance can be influenced by factors such as changes in government policy regarding incarceration, immigration laws, and the overall demand for private detention services.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving profitability (gross margin 80.62% TTM; EBIT/EBITDA margins 11.94%/17.18% TTM) and positive revenue growth (3.23% TTM) are constructive, but the sharp free cash flow growth decline (-79.89% TTM) and only modest net margin (3.69% TTM) limit the score despite manageable leverage (debt-to-equity 1.07 TTM).

Income Statement

Geo Group's income statement shows a solid revenue growth rate of 3.23% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin has significantly improved to 80.62% TTM, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 3.69% TTM, suggesting room for improvement in cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved to 11.94% and 17.18% TTM, respectively, showing enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is at 6.48% TTM, which is a positive sign of profitability but still has room for growth. The equity ratio stands at 39.91% TTM, suggesting a stable capital structure but highlighting potential risks if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -79.89% TTM, which is a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 TTM, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.55 TTM suggests limited free cash flow availability for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.53B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.02B	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M	578.60M
EBITDA	570.06M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M	385.64M
Net Income	238.10M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.81B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.94M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.63B	1.81B	1.89B	2.07B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	976.21M	913.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	26.34M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	208.41M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	122.31M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.92M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.94, below the 50-day MA of 16.60, and below the 200-day MA of 21.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.56B	33.15	26.42%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
BRC	75 Outperform	$4.28B	21.70	16.69%	1.23%	11.20%	0.71%
MSA	75 Outperform	$7.32B	25.96	23.35%	1.30%	3.31%	2.58%
BCO	74 Outperform	$5.34B	31.76	61.95%	0.85%	3.07%	48.57%
ADT	69 Neutral	$6.56B	11.42	17.24%	2.73%	4.77%	-22.78%
GEO	68 Neutral	$2.18B	9.26	16.73%	―	4.40%	536.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Upsizes Revolving Credit Facility for Flexibility

On January 20, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility commitments by $100 million, from $450 million to $550 million, while reducing the amount of additional incremental debt it may seek in the future from $250 million to $150 million. Announced publicly on January 22, 2026, the upsized facility is intended to enhance GEO’s balance sheet flexibility and support its future growth plans and capital allocation strategy, including a previously expanded stock repurchase authorization, and underscores growing support from its banking partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group’s Legal VP Joe Negron Retires

On December 4, 2025, Joe Negron, the Senior Vice President, Legal Services, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary of The GEO Group, Inc., announced his retirement effective December 31, 2025. Mr. Negron, who has been with the company since 2019, will continue to serve as a consultant for two years to assist with legal, regulatory, and compliance matters. His outstanding equity awards will continue to vest based on performance criteria.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility

On November 13, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. announced a significant amendment to its Credit Agreement, which involves removing a specific leverage ratio requirement from a portion of the agreement’s restricted payments covenant. This change may impact the company’s financial flexibility and operations, potentially affecting its stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Increases Share Repurchase Authorization

On November 6, 2025, GEO announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase in the share repurchase authorization to $500 million and extended the expiration date to December 31, 2029. The company reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total revenues of $682.3 million and net income of $173.9 million. GEO has made significant progress in securing new contracts and expanding its services, which are expected to generate substantial revenue growth in the coming years. The company is also focused on strengthening its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.