Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: 1.14%
• EPS Growth: 169.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 141,534,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,832,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,050,249
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.59
• 1Y Price Target: $40.67
• Price Target Upside: 139.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(23.60% Upside)

Geo Group's overall score is driven by strong earnings call highlights and strategic growth opportunities, offset by technical indicators showing bearish trends and valuation concerns. Financial performance is stable but requires attention to profitability and cash flow management.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Geo Group primarily generates revenue through contracts with government agencies to manage and operate correctional facilities and community rehabilitation programs. The company earns income from daily per diem rates paid by federal, state, and local governments for housing inmates. Additionally, GEO has revenue streams from providing services such as electronic monitoring, rehabilitation programs, and other correctional services. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and law enforcement agencies bolster its earnings, as well as the increasing demand for private management of correctional facilities due to budget constraints faced by public institutions.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geo Group demonstrates a solid financial position with improved revenue growth and reduced leverage. However, the low net profit margin and declining return on equity highlight areas for improvement. Cash flow management remains a concern, with negative free cash flow growth in the TTM period.

Income Statement

Geo Group's income statement shows a stable revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.2%. The gross profit margin has improved significantly in the TTM period, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 3.7%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a significant reduction in leverage, with the debt-to-equity ratio decreasing from 3.14 in 2021 to 0.22 in the TTM period. This improvement in financial stability is a positive sign. However, the return on equity has decreased over time, currently at 6.7%, which could be a concern for investors seeking high returns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating that the company is generating sufficient cash from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.45B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.45B	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M	578.60M
EBITDA	421.08M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M	385.64M
Net Income	90.48M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.66B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.86M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.78B	1.81B	1.89B	2.08B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.28B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.38B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	975.02M	912.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	131.01M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	238.11M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-146.52M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-93.30M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.21, below the 50-day MA of 20.08, and below the 200-day MA of 25.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	―	$1.57B	37.08	24.98%	1.20%	-3.81%	-11.48%
MSA	―	$6.58B	23.98	24.23%	1.25%	0.55%	1.85%
ADT	―	$7.28B	13.12	17.13%	2.52%	3.80%	-3.18%
BRC	―	$3.74B	20.20	16.76%	1.22%	12.84%	-3.06%
BCO	―	$4.81B	30.90	56.23%	0.86%	2.17%	25.34%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
GEO	―	$2.44B	26.90	6.73%	―	1.14%	169.19%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Enters Joint Venture for Florida Facility

The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a joint venture agreement to provide management services at the North Florida Detention Facility in Baker County, Florida, which has a capacity of 1,310 beds. This strategic move is likely to enhance GEO’s operational footprint in the correctional facility management sector and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Faces Legal Setback in Wage Case

On August 13, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. faced a legal setback when the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied its petition for a rehearing in cases concerning the enforcement of Washington State minimum wage laws for detainees at the Northwest ICE Processing Center. This decision upholds a previous unfavorable jury verdict from October 2021, which resulted in a $23.2 million judgment against GEO, further increased by $14.4 million in attorney’s fees and costs. The company plans to seek a stay and petition the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the decision violates the Supremacy Clause and established legal principles.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

Geo Group Inc’s recent earnings call conveyed an overall positive sentiment, highlighting significant achievements such as securing new contracts with ICE, achieving record utilization levels, and successful financial restructuring. However, the company also acknowledged challenges, including stable ISAP participant numbers and start-up expenses for new facilities, which present areas for improvement.

GEO Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading provider of diversified government services, specializing in the design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers across several countries, including the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

GEO Group Announces $300 Million Share Buyback Plan

On August 6, 2025, GEO Group announced a $300 million share repurchase program approved by its Board of Directors on August 4, 2025. This strategic move aims to enhance long-term shareholder value, reflecting the company’s strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, where it reported total revenues of $636.2 million and a net income of $29.1 million. Additionally, GEO Group has secured significant contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for its facilities, expected to generate substantial annualized revenues, further solidifying its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.