Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.02B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 4.40%
• EPS Growth: 536.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 134,361,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,175,111
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,417,074
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.41
• 1Y Price Target: $30.33
• Price Target Upside: 127.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.97B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(16.45% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back primarily by weak 2025 cash flow (negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a low P/E valuation and earnings-call-driven optimism from record contract wins and 2026 guidance, with corporate actions modestly supportive via added credit flexibility despite leadership transition risk.

Positive Factors

Large contract pipeline

A ~$520M portfolio of new or expanded contracts provides multi-year revenue visibility and scale. Staggered activations that largely normalize by year-end support sustained top-line growth, better fixed-cost absorption, and a durable backlog that underpins EBITDA expansion over the medium term.

Improving leverage trend

Material deleveraging since 2020 reflects disciplined balance-sheet repair, raising resilience to shocks and improving refinancing optionality. An improving capital structure supports investment capacity, credit flexibility, and long-term stakeholder confidence if the trend continues.

Service diversification & ISAP mix shift

Growing ISAP scale and a mix shift toward GPS ankle monitoring and increased case management lift revenue per participant and expand higher-margin service offerings. Combined with secured-transport and facility activations, this diversification strengthens durable competitive position and cross-sell potential.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

A sharp drop in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2025 signal weaker cash quality and raise sustainability concerns. Persistent cash deficits can limit organic reinvestment, force asset sales or debt drawdowns, and constrain capital returns absent consistent cash recovery.

Sizable absolute debt

Even with improved ratios, a large absolute debt stock (~$1.7B) increases exposure to interest and refinancing risk, particularly if cash generation remains patchy. High nominal leverage reduces flexibility for opportunistic investments and magnifies downside if revenues or margins slip.

Government procurement uncertainty

A structural policy shift toward government-owned, retrofitted detention centers could reduce private-sector demand or delay contract activations. If ICE chooses in-house operations or different vendors, GEO faces reduced utilization risk and longer timelines to convert idle beds into contracted revenue.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Geo Group generates revenue primarily through contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies to manage correctional facilities and provide detention services. The company earns income from per diem rates for housing inmates, which are negotiated based on the type of facility and the services provided. Additionally, GEO offers rehabilitation programs that may also receive funding through government contracts. Significant revenue streams include partnerships with various governmental bodies, including the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for detention services, as well as contracts with state correctional departments. The company's financial performance can be influenced by factors such as changes in government policy regarding incarceration, immigration laws, and the overall demand for private detention services.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (revenue back to growth and a sharp net-margin rebound) and an improving leverage trend are outweighed by weak 2025 cash generation: operating cash flow fell sharply and free cash flow turned negative, raising quality-of-earnings and liquidity durability concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue has returned to growth, accelerating to ~4.0% in 2025 (annual) after being roughly flat in 2024. Profitability also improved meaningfully: net margin expanded to ~9.7% in 2025 versus ~1.3% in 2024, driving a sharp rebound in net income. Offsetting this, operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~16.2% in 2025) remains below the stronger levels seen in 2022–2023, suggesting margin volatility and some compression versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated but is improving. Debt-to-equity has stepped down from ~3.3x in 2020 to ~1.15x in 2025, indicating a healthier capital structure trend. Equity has grown (supporting balance sheet resilience), and return on equity improved to ~16.9% in 2025. The main concern is that absolute debt is still sizable (~$1.73B in 2025), leaving the company more sensitive to refinancing conditions and earnings swings than lower-leverage peers.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025. Operating cash flow fell to ~$73M (from ~$242M in 2024), and free cash flow turned negative (~-$125M) after being consistently positive from 2020–2024. Cash flow also did not keep pace with reported earnings in 2025 (operating cash flow was only ~0.20x net income, and free cash flow was negative relative to net income), raising questions about working-capital timing, capital spending intensity, or other cash uses in the period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.63B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B
Gross Profit	663.07M	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M
EBITDA	631.09M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M
Net Income	254.37M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.84B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.00M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M
Total Debt	1.73B	1.81B	1.89B	2.07B	3.06B
Total Liabilities	2.34B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B
Stockholders Equity	1.50B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	976.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.90M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M
Operating Cash Flow	72.61M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M
Investing Cash Flow	105.68M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-185.66M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.98, below the 50-day MA of 16.08, and below the 200-day MA of 20.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRC	78 Outperform	$4.36B	21.64	16.78%	1.23%	11.20%	0.71%
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.66B	35.32	26.42%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
MSA	72 Outperform	$7.58B	27.57	22.22%	1.30%	3.31%	2.58%
ADT	67 Neutral	$6.57B	11.45	17.24%	2.73%	4.77%	-22.78%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BCO	60 Neutral	$4.81B	24.85	86.51%	0.85%	3.07%	48.57%
GEO	59 Neutral	$2.02B	8.27	17.91%	―	4.40%	536.79%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reorganization

On February 6, 2026, GEO’s Chief Executive Officer J. David Donahue notified the company that he will retire effective February 28, 2026, and subsequently signed a separation agreement on February 9, 2026, that provides for continued vesting of existing equity awards, COBRA premium payments for up to 18–24 months and consulting fees of $104,167 per month through February 28, 2028. Beginning March 1, 2026, Donahue will serve as a paid consultant on secure services and business development, a move that preserves his institutional knowledge while smoothing leadership transition during a period the company expects to be active in pursuing growth opportunities.

On February 9, 2026, GEO’s founder and Executive Chairman, George C. Zoley, was appointed Chief Executive Officer effective March 1, 2026, under an amended employment agreement running through April 2, 2029 that sets his annual base salary at $1.2 million plus a target bonus equal to 200% of salary and an annual restricted‑stock grant worth at least 300% of salary. Zoley’s return to the CEO role, following his previous tenure as chief executive from GEO’s 1994 public listing through June 2021, reinforces continuity in strategy and governance at a time when the company is emphasizing expansion in correctional management, reentry services and other government contracts, and signals a renewed reliance on founder‑led leadership to steer its next phase of growth.

On February 12, 2026, GEO publicly announced these senior management changes in a press release describing the leadership handover from Donahue to Zoley and characterizing the shift as part of a broader corporate reorganization. The combination of a structured exit package for the outgoing CEO, a two‑year consulting arrangement and a multi‑year, incentive‑heavy contract for the returning founder underscores the board’s focus on stability, retention of expertise and alignment of top‑level compensation with performance as the company navigates a competitive and politically sensitive corrections and rehabilitation market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Upsizes Revolving Credit Facility for Flexibility

On January 20, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility commitments by $100 million, from $450 million to $550 million, while reducing the amount of additional incremental debt it may seek in the future from $250 million to $150 million. Announced publicly on January 22, 2026, the upsized facility is intended to enhance GEO’s balance sheet flexibility and support its future growth plans and capital allocation strategy, including a previously expanded stock repurchase authorization, and underscores growing support from its banking partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group’s Legal VP Joe Negron Retires

On December 4, 2025, Joe Negron, the Senior Vice President, Legal Services, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary of The GEO Group, Inc., announced his retirement effective December 31, 2025. Mr. Negron, who has been with the company since 2019, will continue to serve as a consultant for two years to assist with legal, regulatory, and compliance matters. His outstanding equity awards will continue to vest based on performance criteria.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.