Geo Group (GEO)

NYSE:GEO

GEO

Geo Group

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Geo Group (GEO) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports

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Earnings Data

Report Date

Aug 12, 2026

Before Open (Confirmed)

Period Ending

2026 (Q2)

Consensus EPS Forecast

0.28

Last Year’s EPS

0.22

Same Quarter Last Year

Analyst Consensus

Moderate Buy

Based on 2 Analysts Ratings

Earnings Call Summary

Q1 2026

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026|

% Change Since:

Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: significant YoY growth in revenue (+17%), net income (+96%), and adjusted EBITDA (+32%), material new contract wins (~$520M incremental annual revenue potential), raised 2026 guidance, active share repurchases, and improved margins (lower G&A as % of revenue). Offsetting risks include a recent decline in ICE census (24K to 21K), payment timing delays from the DHS partial shutdown, higher operating expenses from facility activations, and uncertainty around timing/realization of potential facility sales and paused government warehouse plans. On balance, the positive growth drivers, backlog of contract wins, margin improvements, and increased guidance materially outweigh the near-term operational and timing risks.

Company Guidance

GEO raised its 2026 outlook, now forecasting full-year GAAP net income of $153–$166 million (EPS $1.10–$1.25) on revenues of $2.95–$3.10 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $525–$545 million, a ~30% effective tax rate and total CapEx of $137.5–$162.5 million; Q2 guidance calls for GAAP net income of $33–$39 million (EPS $0.25–$0.29) on revenues of $715–$725 million and adjusted EBITDA of $130–$135 million. At quarter end the company reported roughly $80 million cash, ~$1.61 billion total debt and ~$1.53 billion net debt with net leverage below 3.2x adjusted EBITDA, a $100 million expansion of its revolver, ~133.7 million shares outstanding, ~3.6 million shares repurchased in Q1 for ~$50 million (8.5 million repurchased YTD for ~$141 million) and ~$359 million remaining under a $500 million repurchase authorization. Management highlighted upside not included in guidance — ~6,000 idle high‑security beds that could generate in excess of $300 million annually at full occupancy, ISAP counts of ~180–181k participants (now >48k on GPS up from 17k and ~131k on SmartLink down from ~159k), a skip‑tracing contract that could reach up to $60 million per year, and ~ $60 million of incremental annual transportation revenue — while noting working‑capital and timing pressures from DHS funding dynamics.

Top-Line Growth

Q1 2026 revenue increased to $705.2M from $604.6M in Q1 2025, a 17% year-over-year increase driven by new contracts and facility activations.

Profitability Expansion

Net income attributable to operations rose to $38.3M ($0.29/diluted share) vs. $19.6M ($0.14) in Q1 2025, a 96% year-over-year increase; adjusted EBITDA increased to $131.4M from $99.8M, a 32% increase.

Major New Business Wins

2025 contracts represent up to ~$520M in incremental annual revenue (the largest single-year wins in company history), including new/expanded ICE contracts and a five-year U.S. Marshals Service transportation contract (~$60M incremental annual revenue).

ISAP Technology and Mix Shift

ISAP enrollment remained stable at ~180-181K, with a material shift toward higher-priced monitoring: GPS ankle monitors increased to >48K (from 17K in early 2025) and case management assignments rose to ~111K, which the company expects to drive higher revenue/earnings even at stable volumes.

Secure Services Activation & Bed Capacity

Reactivated three previously idled company-owned facilities and Adelanto, adding ~6,000 beds for ICE reactivation; total beds under contract with ICE increased to ~26,000, representing over one-third of the national ICE population (~58,000).

Improved Operating Efficiency & G&A

Operating results benefited from lower-than-expected labor/overtime costs and G&A declined to 8.6% of revenue from 9.6% a year ago, contributing to margin improvement.

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Actions

Repurchased ~3.6M shares for ~$50M in Q1 (8.5M shares / ~$141M total repurchased year-to-date) with ~$359M remaining under the $500M authorization; expanded revolving credit facility by $100M; net leverage below 3.2x adjusted EBITDA.

Raised 2026 Guidance

Full-year 2026 guidance increased: GAAP net income $153M–$166M ($1.10–$1.25/sh), revenues $2.95B–$3.10B, adjusted EBITDA $525M–$545M; Q2 guidance provided (revenues $715M–$725M; adjusted EBITDA $130M–$135M).

New Service Contracts & State Wins

Secured a two-year ISAP 5 contract, a two-year skip tracing contract (began March, up to $60M/year), and two Florida DOC management-only contracts (~$100M combined annual revenues) beginning July 1, 2026.

Geo Group (GEO) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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GEO Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
Aug 12, 2026	2026 (Q2)	0.28 / -	0.22	―	―	―
May 06, 2026	2026 (Q1)	0.20 / 0.29	0.14	107.14% (+0.15)
Feb 12, 2026	2025 (Q4)	0.24 / 0.25	0.13	92.31% (+0.12)
Nov 06, 2025	2025 (Q3)	0.23 / 0.25	0.21	19.05% (+0.04)
Aug 06, 2025	2025 (Q2)	0.17 / 0.22	0.23	-4.35% (-0.01)
May 07, 2025	2025 (Q1)	0.19 / 0.14	0.18	-22.22% (-0.04)
Feb 27, 2025	2024 (Q4)	0.22 / 0.13	0.29	-55.17% (-0.16)
Nov 07, 2024	2024 (Q3)	0.24 / 0.21	0.19	10.53% (+0.02)
Aug 07, 2024	2024 (Q2)	0.26 / 0.23	0.24	-4.17% (>-0.01)
May 07, 2024	2024 (Q1)	0.20 / 0.18	0.22	-18.18% (-0.04)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

GEO Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
May 06, 2026	$18.36	$22.20	+20.92%
Feb 12, 2026	$15.83	$13.47	-14.91%
Nov 06, 2025	$16.81	$15.41	-8.33%
Aug 06, 2025	$25.84	$22.88	-11.46%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.