Napco Security (NSSC)
NASDAQ:NSSC
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Napco Security Technologies
(NASDAQ:NSSC)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(19.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/05/26
NSSC scores well primarily on strong financial performance (high margins, minimal leverage, strong cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with continued recurring-revenue momentum and solid profitability. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, though momentum looks somewhat extended. The main constraint on the score is valuation, with a higher P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High profit margins
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect durable product mix, pricing power, and operational leverage. This margin structure supports reinvestment, covers rising SG&A or data costs, and underpins long-term cash generation and shareholder returns even if revenue growth fluctuates.
Negative Factors
Revenue and cash-flow volatility
Historical inconsistency in top-line and FCF growth signals sensitivity to installation cycles, distributor demand and timing. That variability can complicate planning, weaken visibility for multi-quarter investments, and make sustained margin expansion harder if revenue lapses recur.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profit margins
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect durable product mix, pricing power, and operational leverage. This margin structure supports reinvestment, covers rising SG&A or data costs, and underpins long-term cash generation and shareholder returns even if revenue growth fluctuates.
Read all positive factors
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.41B
Dividend Yield1.29%
Average Volume (3M)725.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth8.83%
EPS Growth-16.34%
CountryUS
Employees1,070
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.32
Shares Outstanding35,664,326
10 Day Avg. Volume330,118
30 Day Avg. Volume725,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.23
Price to Book (P/B)6.39
Price to Sales (P/S)5.93
P/FCF Ratio20.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.80Price Target Upside11.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$202.15M
Napco Security Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic security products in the United States and internationally. The company offers access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems, and vide...
How the Company Makes Money
NSSC makes money primarily by selling security hardware and related solutions to the professional security channel (distributors, dealers, and integrators) who then install and service end users. A major revenue stream is product sales across its ...
Napco Security Technologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by region to reveal where Napco earns its revenue and where the company is expanding or exposed. Highlights concentration risk in specific markets, sensitivity to currency and local economic cycles, and opportunities for international growth or regulatory and geopolitical headwinds that could affect future performance.
Breaks down sales by region to reveal where Napco earns its revenue and where the company is expanding or exposed. Highlights concentration risk in specific markets, sensitivity to currency and local economic cycles, and opportunities for international growth or regulatory and geopolitical headwinds that could affect future performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNapco Security Technologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record Q2 revenue (+12.2%), double-digit growth in both equipment and recurring revenue, expanding gross margins, robust profitability (operating income +32%, net income +29%, adjusted EBITDA +26%), rising free cash flow, and a debt-free balance sheet with $115M in cash. Key strategic initiatives — including continued StarLink adoption, door-locking strength, and the MVP cloud platform — position the company for continued high-margin recurring revenue growth. Minor headwinds include a modest decline in recurring gross margin (driven by one-time comparative effects and higher data costs), higher tax provision, lower interest income, elevated SG&A on a six-month basis, and that MVP and ADI-driven locking contributions will take more time to scale. Overall, positives (record revenue, margin expansion, strong cash and profitability, strategic product momentum) substantially outweigh the limited operational and timing challenges, implying an upbeat outlook with manageable risks.Positive Updates
Record Q2 Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Net revenue of $48.2 million in Q2, a record for the quarter, representing a 12.2% increase versus prior-year Q2; net revenue for the first six months rose 12% to $97.3 million.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Recurring Gross Margin
Recurring service gross margin declined modestly to 90.2% from 91.3% a year ago (Q2), attributed to one-time credits that reduced comparative-period royalty expense and marginal increases in data costs for network operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q2 Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Net revenue of $48.2 million in Q2, a record for the quarter, representing a 12.2% increase versus prior-year Q2; net revenue for the first six months rose 12% to $97.3 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated they expect to continue the fiscal‑2026 momentum, calling out record Q2 revenue of $48.2M (+12.2% Y/Y) with equipment revenue $24.3M (+12% Y/Y) and recurring monthly service revenue $23.8M (+12.5% Y/Y) that now implies a prospective annualized recurring revenue run‑rate of ~$99M (up from $95M last quarter); margins and profitability are expected to remain strong (Q2 gross margin 58.6%, equipment margin ~27.6–28%, recurring gross margin 90.2%), with operating income $14.8M (+32%), net income $13.5M (28% of revenue, +29%), adjusted EBITDA $15.3M (31.9% margin, +26%), and free cash flow $14.5M (30.1% margin); they said pricing actions are largely baked in for the year, expect equipment margins to continue improving toward the low‑30%s, anticipate MVP access control to begin contributing meaningfully in the back half of calendar 2026 (more visibility in fiscal 2027), plan modest capex ($0.6M Q2; $0.8M 6 months), and highlighted a strong, debt‑free balance sheet with $115.4M cash/marketable securities and an increased quarterly dividend of $0.15/share.Napco Security Technologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
87
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 192.03M | 181.62M | 188.82M | 170.00M | 143.59M | 143.59M |
| Gross Profit | 108.01M | 101.03M | 101.75M | 73.23M | 59.16M | 59.16M |
| EBITDA | 54.33M | 48.53M | 55.98M | 32.26M | 20.00M | 20.00M |
| Net Income | 47.42M | 43.41M | 49.82M | 27.13M | 19.60M | 19.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 212.82M | 198.14M | 198.14M | 207.75M | 166.65M | 148.58M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 115.38M | 99.18M | 99.18M | 97.72M | 66.75M | 46.80M |
| Total Debt | 5.25M | 5.33M | 5.33M | 5.51M | 5.69M | 7.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 28.01M | 29.54M | 29.54M | 28.86M | 26.48M | 34.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 184.81M | 168.61M | 168.61M | 178.89M | 140.17M | 113.79M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.66M | 51.41M | 43.77M | 21.74M | 6.85M | 21.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.74M | 53.53M | 45.37M | 24.70M | 8.33M | 22.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.96M | 14.59M | -3.15M | -28.26M | -1.56M | -6.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -37.79M | -50.37M | -12.83M | -2.21M | 155.00K | 0.00 |
Napco Security Technologies Technical Analysis
Positive
45.38
Price Trends
42.86
Positive
41.77
Positive
39.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.67
Negative
65.13
Neutral
89.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSSC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.65, above the 50-day MA of 42.86, and above the 200-day MA of 39.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NSSC.
Napco Security Technologies Risk Analysis
Napco Security Technologies disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Napco Security Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Napco Security Technologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.41B | -861.44 | 20.86% | 1.29% | 8.83% | -16.34% | |
70 Outperform | $5.59B | 7.97 | 16.74% | 2.73% | 3.29% | 22.63% | |
69 Neutral | $1.61B | 63.98 | 12.47% | ― | 3.60% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.28B | 28.72 | -30.45% | ― | 40.74% | 41.04% | |
56 Neutral | $5.98B | 9.68 | -18.10% | ― | 10.52% | -654.33% | |
49 Neutral | $53.90M | -1.01 | -153.81% | ― | 4.91% | 70.42% |
* Industrials Sector Average
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
39.61
15.26
62.67%
ADT
Adt
7.06
-0.92
-11.53%
ARLO
Arlo Technologies
14.75
4.41
42.65%
REZI
Resideo Technologies
39.47
22.00
125.93%
EVLV
Evolv Technologies Holdings
7.14
2.98
71.63%
KSCP
Knightscope Inc Class A
3.31
-1.44
-30.32%
Napco Security Technologies Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Napco Security Posts Strong Q3 2026 Revenue Growth
Positive
May 4, 2026
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended March 31, NAPCO Security Technologies reported net revenue of $49.2 million, up 11.8% year on year, driven by an 8.4% rise in equipment sales to $24.2 million and a 15.4% increase in recurring service rev...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.