Adt Inc (ADT)
NYSE:ADT
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Adt
(NYSE:ADT)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(10.04% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow generation and solid current profitability, which support shareholder returns and debt service, while elevated leverage and a mixed growth outlook (flat revenue/EPS guidance) limit upside. Technicals are improving near-term but remain below longer-term averages, and valuation/dividend are supportive.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained multi‑billion operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for debt service, buybacks, dividends and strategic R&D. High cash conversion improves resilience to earnings variability and funds long‑term product rollouts and balance‑sheet repair without relying on external capital.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage near ~2.0x equity (and reported net debt levels) constrains financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing risk. Even with improving profitability, elevated debt limits capital allocation options and increases execution risk if cash flow weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained multi‑billion operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for debt service, buybacks, dividends and strategic R&D. High cash conversion improves resilience to earnings variability and funds long‑term product rollouts and balance‑sheet repair without relying on external capital.
Read all positive factors
Adt (ADT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.05B
Dividend Yield2.73%
Average Volume (3M)9.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth3.29%
EPS Growth22.63%
CountryUS
Employees12,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding746,286,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,694,018
30 Day Avg. Volume9,318,014
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio5.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.20Price Target Upside12.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.15B
Adt Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, comme...
How the Company Makes Money
ADT primarily makes money through a recurring revenue model centered on subscription monitoring and related services. The largest revenue stream is monthly (or periodic) fees customers pay for professionally monitored security and smart home servi...
Adt Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation (notably large share repurchases), and significant strategic investments in ADT Plus, Origin AI and AI-driven service efficiency — all positive indicators for future margin expansion and product differentiation. Near-term trade-offs include intentional tightening of acquisition channels and credit policies that weighed on gross adds, a modest top-line growth outlook (revenues and RMR roughly flat), increased allowance for credit losses, and Q2 cash flow seasonality tied to SAC and advertising for the ADT Blue launch. Overall, the positives around cash flow, balance sheet strength, product roadmap and operational efficiency materially outweigh the contained, largely intentional near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Adjusted free cash flow (including swaps) of $414M in Q1, up $187M or >80% year-over-year, driven by lower cash interest, working capital timing and profitability; company reiterates ~20% adjusted free cash flow growth for full-year 2026.
Negative Updates
Top-Line Growth Remains Limited
Monitoring and services revenue and total RMR were essentially flat year-over-year ($359M RMR); full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance is approximately flat to last year, indicating constrained near-term top-line growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Adjusted free cash flow (including swaps) of $414M in Q1, up $187M or >80% year-over-year, driven by lower cash interest, working capital timing and profitability; company reiterates ~20% adjusted free cash flow growth for full-year 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADT reiterated 2026 guidance calling for approximately 20% adjusted free cash flow growth year‑over‑year while expecting revenue and adjusted EPS to be roughly flat to last year (and a longer‑range FCF target of 10%+); management said Q2 revenue and EPS should be slightly lower sequentially due to higher advertising for the ADT Blue launch and other investments, and adjusted free cash flow is expected to be $100–$150 million lower sequentially because of seasonal SAC, working capital timing and tax payments. That guidance builds off a strong Q1 baseline: $414M of adjusted free cash flow including swaps, $0.23 adjusted EPS (+10% YoY), $674M adjusted EBITDA (+2%), $1.3B total revenue (+1%), $359M ending RMR (flat YoY), 13.1% gross revenue attrition, a 2.3‑year revenue payback period, 161k gross adds (adding $10.1M RMR), and $198M of installation revenue (+7%); it also factors capital priorities and balance sheet metrics (board‑authorized $1.5B repurchase program, ~35M shares repurchased YTD for ~$230M, net debt $7.3B at 2.7x adjusted EBITDA, ~$119M cash, $800M revolver, ~5‑year weighted average debt maturity, ~4.3% cost of debt) as well as planned investments (ADT Plus/Origin AI, e‑commerce) and expected tariffs.Adt Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.14B | 5.13B | 4.90B | 4.65B | 5.17B | 5.31B |
| Gross Profit | 2.59B | 2.53B | 2.48B | 2.38B | 2.20B | 1.72B |
| EBITDA | 2.88B | 2.95B | 2.80B | 2.69B | 2.52B | 2.25B |
| Net Income | 623.31M | 595.95M | 501.05M | -166.97M | 132.66M | -340.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.91B | 15.82B | 16.05B | 15.96B | 17.87B | 16.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.00M | 81.00M | 204.06M | 14.62M | 257.00M | 24.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.67B | 7.69B | 7.81B | 7.84B | 9.83B | 9.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.11B | 12.04B | 12.25B | 12.18B | 14.44B | 13.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.80B | 3.78B | 3.80B | 3.79B | 3.43B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.79B | 1.31B | 1.72B | 850.84M | 976.00M | 787.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.06B | 1.89B | 1.88B | 1.66B | 1.89B | 1.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.27B | -1.12B | -1.30B | 242.49M | -1.53B | -1.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -730.16M | -862.00M | -515.36M | -2.14B | -15.00M | -128.45M |
Adt Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.27
Price Trends
7.05
Positive
7.53
Negative
7.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
66.21
Neutral
90.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, above the 50-day MA of 7.05, and below the 200-day MA of 7.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADT.
Adt Risk Analysis
Adt disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adt reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adt Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.67B | 27.53 | 27.45% | 1.29% | 2.94% | 0.90% | |
70 Outperform | $6.05B | 7.97 | 16.19% | 2.73% | 3.29% | 22.63% | |
69 Neutral | $1.59B | 97.67 | 12.47% | ― | 3.60% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $11.64B | 22.65 | 32.08% | 1.27% | 8.87% | 2.90% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $4.42B | 24.49 | 79.36% | 0.85% | 4.97% | 29.46% | |
56 Neutral | $6.08B | 9.68 | -18.10% | ― | 10.52% | -654.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ADT
Adt
7.55
-0.35
-4.45%
BCO
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107.52
17.29
19.16%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
46.72
22.44
92.41%
ALLE
Allegion
135.49
-3.51
-2.52%
ARLO
Arlo Technologies
14.61
4.36
42.54%
REZI
Resideo Technologies
40.14
22.53
127.94%
Adt Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDelistings and Listing ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
ADT Reports Solid Q1 2026 Results, Boosts Shareholder Returns
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, ADT reported first-quarter 2026 results showing total revenue up 1% year over year to $1.3 billion and recurring monthly revenue of $359 million, with GAAP income from continuing operations rising 19% to $169 million, or $0.20 p...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ADT Highlights 2025 Results and New Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, ADT Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 5% rise in annual revenue to $5.1 billion, solid recurring revenue metrics, and stronger adjusted earnings and free cash flow despite modest declines...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
ADT Acquires Origin AI to Expand Smart Home Sensing
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, ADT Inc. acquired Origin Wireless, Inc., known as Origin AI, for $170 million in cash, bringing its AI-enabled Wi-Fi sensing platform and more than 200 global patents into the ADT ecosystem. Origin’s technology, which d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.