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Adt Inc (ADT)
NYSE:ADT

Adt (ADT) AI Stock Analysis

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Adt

(NYSE:ADT)

72Outperform
ADT's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and cash flow generation, alongside moderate valuation metrics. Despite high leverage, the company's operational resilience and strategic initiatives are positives. Technical indicators are neutral, and the earnings call highlighted robust financial performance with positive guidance.
Positive Factors
AI and Efficiency
AI deployment in call centers has led to increased efficiency and potential cost savings, with 90% of customer service chats processed by AI agents.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth of 7.4% came in ahead of expectations, driven by record-level recurring monthly revenue, improved pricing, and better retention rates.
Share Repurchase
A new $500 million share-repurchase program was announced, indicating confidence in the company's financial health and future prospects.
Negative Factors
EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA and margins were below expectations due to investments in innovation and long-term objectives.
Tariffs and Costs
Tariffs could lead to higher equipment costs, however ADT may be able to mitigate the impact via supplier negotiations, inventory management, buying forward, and even potentially implementing a tariff charge for new customers.

Adt (ADT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Adt Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionADT Inc. is a leading provider of security, automation, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company operates in the security services sector, offering a wide range of products and services designed to protect homes and businesses. ADT's core offerings include professionally installed and monitored security systems, smart home automation, fire and life safety services, and commercial security solutions. With a focus on innovation and customer service, ADT aims to provide peace of mind to its customers through advanced security technologies and comprehensive monitoring services.
How the Company Makes MoneyADT makes money through a combination of product sales, installation charges, and subscription fees for monitoring services. The company's primary revenue stream comes from recurring monthly fees charged to customers for monitoring and maintaining security systems. This subscription model ensures a steady income stream and customer retention. Additionally, ADT generates revenue from the sale and installation of security equipment and smart home devices. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with technology providers and real estate developers to expand its service offerings and customer base. These partnerships can enhance its product portfolio and provide cross-selling opportunities, further contributing to its earnings.

Adt Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ADT exhibits strong profitability metrics with improving EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio suggests potential financial risk, and revenue growth has been inconsistent. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting liquidity and operational efficiency.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company has shown a consistent improvement in its EBIT and EBITDA margins, reaching 24.9% and 46.6% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), respectively. The gross profit margin remains robust at 74.2% TTM. However, the revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant drop in 2022, and the net profit margin has fluctuated, although it improved to 11.1% TTM.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
ADT's debt-to-equity ratio has decreased slightly but remains high, indicating a leveraged position. The return on equity improved to 15.2% TTM, reflecting better profitability. The equity ratio is relatively stable at 22.8% TTM, suggesting moderate financial leverage.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow growth is volatile, with a decline in the latest period, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.61 TTM, indicating solid cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.62, showing efficient cash generation from operations.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.90B4.98B6.39B5.31B5.32B
Gross Profit
4.05B3.97B4.36B3.76B3.80B
EBIT
1.21B1.08B560.00M62.00M170.00M
EBITDA
2.60B2.04B2.37B1.96B1.94B
Net Income Common Stockholders
501.05M-166.97M132.66M-341.00M-632.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
96.21M14.62M257.00M24.00M205.00M
Total Assets
16.05B15.96B17.87B16.89B16.12B
Total Debt
7.71B7.94B9.83B9.69B9.49B
Net Debt
7.61B7.81B9.57B9.67B9.29B
Total Liabilities
12.25B12.18B14.44B13.64B13.08B
Stockholders Equity
3.80B3.79B3.43B3.25B3.04B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.72B850.84M976.00M787.00M792.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.88B1.66B1.89B1.65B1.37B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.30B242.49M-1.53B-1.70B-1.14B
Financing Cash Flow
-515.36M-2.14B-15.00M-128.00M-70.00M

Adt Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.02
Price Trends
50DMA
7.80
Positive
100DMA
7.51
Positive
200DMA
7.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
54.29
Neutral
STOCH
74.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.90, above the 50-day MA of 7.80, and above the 200-day MA of 7.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADT.

Adt Risk Analysis

Adt disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adt reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Adt Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$11.81B19.2742.05%1.43%5.48%16.27%
ADADT
72
Outperform
$6.71B13.7216.26%2.76%-5.44%-16.05%
72
Outperform
$829.22M17.4629.13%1.53%5.14%12.03%
BCBCO
71
Outperform
$3.86B24.5455.57%1.08%2.82%95.64%
68
Neutral
$2.42B23.073.83%8.31%-49.90%
63
Neutral
$4.23B11.545.34%209.77%4.14%-9.49%
61
Neutral
$1.02B-29.88%4.01%-27.92%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ADT
Adt
8.02
1.71
27.10%
BCO
Brink's Company
89.24
2.96
3.43%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
22.85
-16.80
-42.37%
ALLE
Allegion
139.20
19.94
16.72%
ARLO
Arlo Technologies
9.83
-2.30
-18.96%
REZI
Resideo Technologies
16.78
-2.51
-13.01%

Adt Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.39%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
ADT Inc.'s first quarter 2025 results show strong financial performance and operational resilience with record recurring revenue, increased total revenue, and substantial growth in adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. The successful launch of the ADT Plus platform and high customer satisfaction are notable positives. However, challenges include a decline in gross RMR additions and potential tariff impacts. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Recurring Monthly Revenue
ADT Inc. achieved a record recurring monthly revenue balance of $360 million, up 2% year over year, indicating strong customer demand and retention.
Total Revenue Growth
Total revenue increased by 7% compared to the previous year, reflecting continued growth in the company's overall business operations.
Adjusted Earnings Per Share Increase
Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose by 11%, showing enhanced profitability.
Significant Free Cash Flow Growth
Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, more than doubled year over year to $226 million.
High Customer Satisfaction and Retention
Customer satisfaction is at a three-year high, and gross attrition is at a record low of 12.6%.
Successful Launch of ADT Plus
The ADT Plus platform expansion is driving significant customer adoption and higher average installation revenue.
AI Integration in Customer Service
90% of customer service chats are processed by AI, improving agent efficiency and customer experience.
Negative Updates
Gross RMR Additions Decline
Gross RMR additions fell by 7% year over year, partially due to tightened credit standards and slower DIY and health business segments.
Potential Tariff Impact
Uncertainty around tariffs may lead to higher equipment costs, impacting the company's financial performance.
Revenue Payback Timing
Revenue payback increased due to timing dynamics associated with securitization facilities, although this is expected to reverse in the next quarter.
Company Guidance
During ADT Inc.'s First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided strong guidance, reflecting a robust start to the year. ADT reported a record recurring monthly revenue (RMR) balance of $360 million, marking a 2% increase, while achieving a total revenue growth of 7% compared to the prior year. The company also reported an adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.21, an 11% increase, and adjusted free cash flow of $226 million, more than doubling from the previous year. ADT returned $445 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. The company's gross attrition rate improved to 12.6%, indicating strong customer retention. ADT continues to focus on its strategic objectives of delivering unrivaled safety, innovative offerings, and premium customer service, with new initiatives like the ADT Plus platform and the Trusted Neighbor feature. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, anticipating a 14% increase in adjusted free cash flow and an 8% rise in adjusted earnings per share, despite potential challenges from tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Adt Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ADT Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Performance
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

On April 24, 2025, ADT Inc. announced its first quarter results for 2025, showcasing strong financial performance with a 7% increase in total revenue to $1.3 billion and a record recurring monthly revenue of $360 million. The company reported a 28% rise in GAAP operating cash flows and a 105% increase in adjusted free cash flow, while returning $445 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. ADT is on track to meet its full-year 2025 guidance, driven by solid growth in cash flow and earnings per share, alongside investments in expanding capabilities and customer base.

Spark’s Take on ADT Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ADT is a Outperform.

ADT’s strong financial performance, combined with positive technical indicators and a compelling valuation, contribute to an overall favorable stock outlook. The company’s strategic focus on growth and operational improvements, as highlighted in the earnings call, further strengthens its position. However, high leverage remains a key risk factor to monitor.

To see Spark’s full report on ADT stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
ADT Announces COO Donald Young’s Retirement
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

On March 6, 2025, ADT Inc. announced that Donald Young, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, will retire from his position effective June 6, 2025. Mr. Young will transition to a special advisor role to assist with the transition of his responsibilities. As part of the transition agreement, he will receive compensation and benefits, including the vesting of restricted shares and eligibility for a prorated bonus. This transition is structured to ensure a smooth handover of duties and maintain continuity within the company’s operations.

Executive/Board Changes
ADT Board Members Retire Amid Governance Shift
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

On February 28, 2025, William M. Lewis, Jr. and Lee J. Solomon retired from ADT Inc.’s Board of Directors. Their retirement aligns with ADT’s transition away from being a ‘controlled company’ under NYSE rules, following a decrease in ownership by Apollo Global Management. This change necessitates a majority of independent directors on the board within a year. The retirements were not due to any disagreements with the company.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ADT Announces Dividend and Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

On February 27, 2025, ADT Inc. announced a dividend of $0.055 per share for its common stockholders, payable on April 3, 2025, and introduced a $500 million share repurchase plan effective until April 30, 2026. The company reported strong financial results for 2024, with significant growth in earnings and cash flow, record customer retention, and the successful rollout of the ADT+ platform. ADT’s strategic initiatives, such as the Trusted Neighbor service and partnerships like the one with State Farm, have positioned it as a leader in the security industry, enhancing shareholder value and customer satisfaction.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.