Adt Inc (ADT)
NYSE:ADT
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Adt
(NYSE:ADT)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(18.87% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and strong cash generation, supported by a reasonable valuation and dividend yield. These positives are tempered by high leverage and weak technical trend signals, while the latest earnings call points to a solid long-term strategy but a near-term 2026 transition year with flat revenue/EPS and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Large recurring revenue base and national scale
A $4.3B RMR base across ~6 million customers creates durable, highly predictable cash flows and reduces revenue cyclicality. Scale supports cross-sell, lower per-customer service costs, and bargaining power with channel partners, underpinning multi-year margin and cash generation targets.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage constraining flexibility
High leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity, and reduces capacity for opportunistic M&A or cushioning in downturns. Even with deleveraging goals, debt loads remain a persistent constraint on capital allocation over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large recurring revenue base and national scale
A $4.3B RMR base across ~6 million customers creates durable, highly predictable cash flows and reduces revenue cyclicality. Scale supports cross-sell, lower per-customer service costs, and bargaining power with channel partners, underpinning multi-year margin and cash generation targets.
Read all positive factors
Adt (ADT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.52B
Dividend Yield2.73%
Average Volume (3M)10.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth4.77%
EPS Growth-22.78%
CountryUS
Employees12,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding765,377,300
10 Day Avg. Volume8,146,661
30 Day Avg. Volume10,475,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.66
Price to Sales (P/S)1.22
P/FCF Ratio4.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.38Price Target Upside24.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.14B
Adt Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, comme...
How the Company Makes Money
ADT generates revenue primarily through subscription-based monitoring services, which provide customers with 24/7 security monitoring. The company charges a monthly fee for these services, which can vary based on the specific features and level of...
Adt Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a mostly positive long-term strategic outlook underpinned by solid 2025 financial results (revenue +5%, EBITDA +4%, adjusted EPS +19%, free cash flow +16%), meaningful capital returns, deleveraging progress, and the acquisition of Origin AI to drive product differentiation. However, ADT is positioning 2026 as a transition year with flat revenue and EPS, near-term investments (~$50M), tariff-related acquisition cost headwinds (~$45M), channel rationalization that may reduce organic gross adds, elevated attrition (13.1%), and an EBITDA drag from DIY expansion. On balance, the company shows strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and promising strategic investments that support a constructive long-term outlook despite short-term operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Scale
Full-year 2025 revenue of $5,100,000,000, up 5% year-over-year, supported by a $4.3B annualized recurring monthly revenue base (RMR) and national scale with ~6,000,000 customers.
Negative Updates
2026 Revenue and EPS Guidance Flat
Management guided 2026 revenue and EPS to be approximately flat to 2025, indicating a near-term pause in topline and earnings growth despite long-term targets.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Scale
Full-year 2025 revenue of $5,100,000,000, up 5% year-over-year, supported by a $4.3B annualized recurring monthly revenue base (RMR) and national scale with ~6,000,000 customers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADT guided 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS to be approximately flat to 2025, while targeting strong cash generation—about 20% growth in 2026 (skewed to Q1)—and planning ~$50 million of incremental investment in product technology, service, and go‑to‑market; guidance includes roughly $45 million of additional subscriber acquisition costs from tariffs and excludes the purchase‑accounting impacts of the Origin AI acquisition. Management reiterated a multiyear framework targeting 5% revenue CAGR, 10% EPS CAGR, and adjusted free cash flow in excess of 10%, with goals of adding 1,000,000 subscribers by 2030, reducing attrition to ~11% (from 13.1% at year‑end 2025), achieving a two‑year revenue payback, continuing to reduce leverage toward ~2.5x adjusted EBITDA (vs. ~2.7x today), and returning capital via a new $1.5 billion three‑year share repurchase authorization plus the ongoing $0.055 quarterly dividend; these targets sit against 2025 anchors of $5.1 billion revenue (+5%), $2.68 billion adjusted EBITDA (+4%), $0.89 adjusted EPS (+19%), a $4.3 billion annualized RMR base, and 16% growth in adjusted free cash flow in 2025.Adt Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.13B | 4.90B | 4.65B | 5.17B | 5.31B |
| Gross Profit | 4.15B | 2.48B | 2.38B | 2.20B | 1.72B |
| EBITDA | 2.66B | 2.80B | 2.69B | 2.52B | 2.25B |
| Net Income | 596.00M | 501.05M | -166.97M | 132.66M | -340.82M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.82B | 16.05B | 15.96B | 17.87B | 16.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.00M | 204.06M | 14.62M | 257.00M | 24.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.69B | 7.81B | 7.84B | 9.83B | 9.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.04B | 12.25B | 12.18B | 14.44B | 13.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.78B | 3.80B | 3.79B | 3.43B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.72B | 850.84M | 976.00M | 787.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.89B | 1.88B | 1.66B | 1.89B | 1.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.12B | -1.30B | 242.49M | -1.53B | -1.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -862.00M | -515.36M | -2.14B | -15.00M | -128.45M |
Adt Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.73
Price Trends
7.13
Negative
7.57
Negative
7.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
48.22
Neutral
77.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.60, below the 50-day MA of 7.13, and below the 200-day MA of 7.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADT.
Adt Risk Analysis
Adt disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adt reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adt Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.52B | 27.53 | 27.45% | 1.29% | -2.28% | -9.94% | |
72 Outperform | $12.47B | 21.24 | 34.76% | 1.27% | 6.87% | 13.53% | |
70 Outperform | $5.52B | 10.53 | 16.19% | 2.73% | 4.77% | -22.78% | |
69 Neutral | $1.40B | 97.67 | 12.47% | ― | -2.83% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $4.34B | 24.49 | 79.36% | 0.85% | 3.07% | 48.57% | |
56 Neutral | $5.69B | 9.68 | -18.10% | ― | 15.45% | -488.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ADT
Adt
6.73
-1.10
-14.09%
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ARLO
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143.53%
Adt Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ADT Highlights 2025 Results and New Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, ADT Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 5% rise in annual revenue to $5.1 billion, solid recurring revenue metrics, and stronger adjusted earnings and free cash flow despite modest declines...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
ADT Acquires Origin AI to Expand Smart Home Sensing
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, ADT Inc. acquired Origin Wireless, Inc., known as Origin AI, for $170 million in cash, bringing its AI-enabled Wi-Fi sensing platform and more than 200 global patents into the ADT ecosystem. Origin’s technology, which d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.