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Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
NYSE:GBX

Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenbrier

(NYSE:GBX)

67Neutral
Greenbrier's overall stock score is primarily supported by its strong financial performance and valuation, with impressive profitability and a robust balance sheet. However, declining revenue and negative cash flow, combined with weak technical indicators and certain operational challenges highlighted in the earnings call, moderate the overall score.

Greenbrier (GBX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenbrier generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of freight railcars, which include a wide range of types such as double-stack intermodal cars, tank cars, and boxcars. A significant portion of its income also comes from providing repair and refurbishment services for railcars, which help maintain the operational efficiency of equipment for its customers. Additionally, Greenbrier earns money through its leasing and management services, whereby it leases railcars to customers and manages railcar fleets on their behalf. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers, which ensure a steady demand for its products and services.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greenbrier shows strong profitability and a solid balance sheet with zero debt, enhancing its stability. However, negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures and inconsistent revenue growth pose challenges.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The income statement shows a solid gross profit margin of 15.84% and a strong net profit margin of 9.18% for TTM, indicating healthy profitability. The EBIT margin stands at 12.95% with an EBITDA margin of 16.25%, reflecting efficient operations. However, the revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline from the previous annual report, signaling potential challenges in sustaining revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet is robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, as total debt was eliminated in the TTM period, significantly reducing financial risk. The return on equity is impressive at 17.75%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 48.44% suggests a stable financial structure with adequate equity backing the assets.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow in the TTM, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.50, indicating good cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate reflects challenges in cash flow management.
Breakdown
Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.54B3.94B2.98B1.75B2.79B
Gross Profit
553.50M441.10M306.00M231.61M353.13M
EBIT
306.00M176.40M43.60M40.97M168.43M
EBITDA
450.30M312.10M182.80M131.46M273.82M
Net Income Common Stockholders
160.10M62.50M46.90M32.40M84.63M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
368.60M281.70M543.00M646.77M833.75M
Total Assets
4.25B3.98B3.85B3.39B3.17B
Total Debt
1.82B1.61B1.57B1.20B1.16B
Net Debt
1.47B1.33B1.02B551.91M321.87M
Total Liabilities
2.68B2.51B2.39B1.88B1.67B
Stockholders Equity
1.38B1.25B1.28B1.31B1.29B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-68.70M-290.90M-531.10M-179.54M205.38M
Operating Cash Flow
329.60M71.20M-150.40M-40.52M272.26M
Investing Cash Flow
-320.40M-280.00M-224.00M-117.76M27.48M
Financing Cash Flow
86.20M-76.20M244.90M-22.74M216.46M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price42.35
Price Trends
50DMA
50.16
Negative
100DMA
57.27
Negative
200DMA
54.47
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.62
Negative
RSI
37.90
Neutral
STOCH
51.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.60, below the 50-day MA of 50.16, and below the 200-day MA of 54.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Risk Analysis

Greenbrier disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WAWAB
79
Outperform
$31.49B28.8510.62%0.46%5.21%24.15%
RBRBC
76
Outperform
$10.29B44.888.35%4.62%21.58%
TRTRN
69
Neutral
$2.03B15.1414.57%4.54%3.21%29.59%
UNUNP
69
Neutral
$131.00B19.7242.47%2.49%0.63%5.93%
GBGBX
67
Neutral
$1.33B6.7214.69%2.83%-5.79%82.71%
63
Neutral
$4.30B11.375.41%214.65%4.15%-9.13%
47
Neutral
$120.83M156.43%55.84%-159.47%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GBX
Greenbrier
42.35
-7.51
-15.06%
RAIL
Freightcar America
6.05
2.50
70.42%
RBC
RBC Bearings
324.75
77.96
31.59%
TRN
Trinity Industries
24.88
-1.20
-4.60%
UNP
Union Pacific
212.61
-23.04
-9.78%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
183.23
20.78
12.79%

Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.62%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with significant achievements in margin improvement, dividend increase, and leasing growth. However, challenges such as European facility rationalization, trade policy uncertainty, and reduced railcar delivery guidance present headwinds. The positive financial metrics and strategic growth initiatives are somewhat counterbalanced by these challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Core net earnings of $56 million or $1.73 per share, reflecting a higher EPS on lower revenue, with an impressive gross margin of 18.2%. Operating income reached nearly $84 million or 11% of revenue.
Increased Dividend
Quarterly dividend increased by nearly 7% to $0.32 per share, demonstrating confidence in long-term strategy and commitment to return value to shareholders.
Robust Backlog and Revenue Visibility
Global new railcar backlog remains strong at over 20,000 units, providing significant revenue visibility and allowing efficient management of production rates and lines.
Leasing and Fleet Management Growth
Recurring revenue reached $157 million over the last four quarters, representing 39% growth from two years ago. Leasing fundamentals remain strong with high renewal rates and rate increases.
Negative Updates
Facility Rationalization in Europe
Rationalization of a facility in Romania will lead to reduced deliveries from European facilities in the second half of fiscal 2025.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty
Tariffs are affecting the cost of inputs, predominantly steel, leading to adjustments in production rates and lines in North America.
Reduced Guidance for New Railcar Deliveries
New railcar delivery guidance narrowed to a range of 21,500 to 23,500 units, down from initial expectations due to European facility rationalization and production changes in North America.
Company Guidance
During The Greenbrier Companies' second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance and key performance metrics. Greenbrier reported core net earnings of $56 million, equating to $1.73 per share, with an impressive aggregate gross margin of 18.2%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of margins at or above mid-teens. The company increased its full-year aggregate gross margin guidance by 100 basis points to a range of 17% to 17.5%, and its operating margin guidance to between 10.2% and 10.7%. New railcar deliveries for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between 21,500 and 23,500 units, with anticipated revenue of $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion. Greenbrier's global railcar backlog remains robust at 20,400 units, valued at $2.6 billion. The company also announced a nearly 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.32 per share, reflecting confidence in its long-term strategy.

Greenbrier Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greenbrier Increases Quarterly Dividend by 7%
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

On April 3, 2025, Greenbrier announced a 7% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $0.32 per share, payable on May 13, 2025, to stockholders of record as of April 22, 2025. This marks the company’s 44th consecutive quarterly dividend and reflects the strength of its long-term business strategy and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.