Union Pacific (UNP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $131.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: 8.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,146
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 3.03
• Shares Outstanding: 593,039,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,371,678
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,258,877
• PEG Ratio: 7.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.23K
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 44.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.37
• 1Y Price Target: $260.70
• Price Target Upside: 17.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $257.00 ▲(15.78%Upside)

Union Pacific's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, positive earnings call guidance, and strategic corporate event with the merger announcement. The stock shows a fair valuation and potential for growth, with stable dividend returns. Technical indicators are mixed, but the strategic merger provides a strong future outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Union Pacific reported adjusted earnings per share that exceeded both the analyst estimate and consensus due to lower expenses and additional income.

Leadership Impact

CEO Jim Vena has brought very strong leadership to UNP, and that operational performance would be a significant asset for an Eastern carrier.

Merger Potential

Union Pacific has confirmed advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern for a potential business combination, signaling growth ambitions.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

Any potential deal with Norfolk Southern would face regulatory and customer scrutiny, high hurdles that could be difficult to overcome.

Volume Decline

Management expects a significant air pocket to come later in the quarter, calling for a sequential decline in international IM volumes.

Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. As of December 31, 2021, its rail network included 32,452 route miles connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Union Pacific makes money through its core business of rail transportation. The company's revenue is primarily derived from the transportation of freight across its extensive rail network. Key revenue streams include the shipment of goods in sectors such as agricultural products (grains, food, and beverages), automotive (finished vehicles and parts), chemicals (industrial chemicals and plastics), coal (for utilities and industrial customers), and industrial products (construction materials, metals, and forest products). Additionally, its intermodal segment, which combines rail and trucking services to transport shipping containers, plays a significant role in revenue generation. Union Pacific also benefits from strategic partnerships with key players in various industries, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. The company's profitability is supported by its focus on operational efficiency, cost management, and investment in infrastructure improvements.

Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Union Pacific demonstrates strong profitability and cash flow metrics with consistent margins and robust cash generation. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, presenting a mixed picture of financial health.

Income Statement

Union Pacific shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and net profit margin. The TTM gross profit margin is 45.57%, and the net profit margin is 28.02%, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth has been somewhat inconsistent, with a slight decline in the latest period compared to previous years. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, highlighting stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects moderate leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 in the TTM period. ROE is strong at 31.84%, indicating effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio of 23.42% suggests a reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows a mix of strengths in profitability but potential risk from leverage.

Cash Flow

Union Pacific's cash flow is robust, with a TTM free cash flow of $4.57 billion, reflecting strong cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.41, demonstrating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 0.90, indicating healthy cash retention post-capital expenditures.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.25B	24.12B	24.88B	21.80B	19.53B
Gross Profit	11.04B	10.53B	11.21B	10.51B	9.18B
EBITDA	12.50B	11.93B	12.64B	11.84B	10.33B
Net Income	6.75B	6.38B	7.00B	6.52B	5.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	67.72B	67.13B	65.45B	63.52B	62.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	1.07B	1.02B	1.01B	1.86B
Total Debt	32.46B	34.18B	34.63B	31.16B	28.01B
Total Liabilities	50.83B	52.34B	53.29B	49.36B	45.44B
Stockholders Equity	16.89B	14.79B	12.16B	14.16B	16.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.89B	4.77B	5.74B	6.10B	5.61B
Operating Cash Flow	9.35B	8.38B	9.36B	9.03B	8.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.33B	-3.67B	-3.47B	-2.71B	-2.68B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.07B	-4.63B	-5.89B	-7.16B	-4.90B

Union Pacific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 221.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 221.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 229.82, below the 50-day MA of 226.79, and below the 200-day MA of 230.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UNP.

Union Pacific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UNP	80 Outperform	$131.64B	19.28	42.35%	2.41%	1.06%	8.13%
NSC	77 Outperform	$62.61B	18.76	24.11%	1.94%	0.71%	86.84%
CSX	76 Outperform	$66.03B	21.76	24.83%	1.41%	-3.27%	-10.73%
FDX	74 Outperform	$55.33B	13.95	14.68%	2.50%	0.27%	-2.64%
ODFL	67 Neutral	$34.26B	31.64	26.25%	0.72%	-5.54%	-12.26%
UPS	67 Neutral	$72.96B	12.81	34.96%	7.59%	0.95%	9.62%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$14.20B	4.67	-2.78%	5.88%	3.78%	-54.63%

Union Pacific Corporate Events

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 28, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation announced an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Norfolk Southern Corporation, involving a two-step merger process. This strategic move, unanimously approved by Union Pacific’s Board of Directors, aims to enhance Union Pacific’s market position by making Norfolk Southern a wholly owned subsidiary. The merger agreement outlines the conversion of Norfolk Southern’s stock into Union Pacific’s stock and cash, and includes provisions for the treatment of Norfolk Southern’s equity awards. The completion of the merger is contingent upon customary closing conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals. The merger is expected to significantly impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, with Norfolk Southern’s stock being delisted from the NYSE upon consummation.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 29, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation announced a merger agreement to create America’s first transcontinental railroad. This strategic combination, valued at over $250 billion, aims to transform the U.S. supply chain, enhance freight competition, and unlock significant synergies, while preserving union jobs and promoting technological advancements.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific in Advanced Merger Talks with Norfolk Southern

On July 24, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation announced that they are in advanced discussions regarding a potential merger. While no agreement has been finalized, the potential business combination could significantly impact the operations and market positioning of both companies in the transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific Announces Leadership Changes in May 2025

Union Pacific announced that its President, Elizabeth F. Whited, will transition to a strategic advisor role effective July 1, 2025, after serving as the company’s first female president. Her leadership has been instrumental in guiding the company through transformative changes and historic initiatives. Additionally, Todd M. Rynaski will transition to Senior Vice President-Strategy, and Carrie J. Powers has been appointed as the new Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective immediately.

Union Pacific Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At Union Pacific Corporation’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, shareholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors for a one-year term was approved, with all nominated directors elected. Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved, while a shareholder proposal for an amended clawback policy was rejected.