Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
NYSE:UNP
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Union Pacific
(NYSE:UNP)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$292.00
â–²(16.27% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability/cash generation but pressured by a meaningful TTM top-line and free-cash-flow slowdown and leverage considerations. Technicals are trend-positive but look overextended, while valuation is a major headwind due to the extremely high provided P/E; the earnings call was a net positive on reaffirmed guidance and operational execution despite fuel and merger-related uncertainty.
Positive Factors
High and Durable Profitability
Union Pacific's consistently high margins (net margins ~26%–30%) and strong operating profitability indicate durable unit economics driven by network scale, pricing power, and a capital-light incremental cost profile. These margins support cash generation through cycles and provide buffer against volume swings, sustaining long-term returns and reinvestment capacity.
Negative Factors
Recent TTM Revenue and FCF Weakness
A marked TTM revenue decline (-24.6%) and falling free cash flow (-23.7%) weaken the company's cash-creation runway and raise questions about demand sustainability. If the top-line reset persists, it could pressure investment, margin leverage and the ability to sustain shareholder returns and capital projects over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Durable Profitability
Union Pacific's consistently high margins (net margins ~26%–30%) and strong operating profitability indicate durable unit economics driven by network scale, pricing power, and a capital-light incremental cost profile. These margins support cash generation through cycles and provide buffer against volume swings, sustaining long-term returns and reinvestment capacity.
Read all positive factors
Union Pacific (UNP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$157.13B
Dividend Yield2.32%
Average Volume (3M)2.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth1.87%
EPS Growth9.41%
CountryUS
Employees30,146
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.17
Shares Outstanding593,713,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,700,737
30 Day Avg. Volume2,692,611
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.34
Price to Book (P/B)7.42
Price to Sales (P/S)5.59
P/FCF Ratio24.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$297.64Price Target Upside18.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)12.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.96B
Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated ...
How the Company Makes Money
Union Pacific primarily makes money by charging customers to move freight on its rail network. Revenue is generated from contractual transportation rates and related charges tied to shipment volume, distance (miles moved), service type, equipment ...
Union Pacific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Locomotive Productivity
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnion Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and financial positives — record quarterly net income and EPS, strong revenue growth despite slightly lower volumes, notable productivity gains, robust cash generation, and continued commercial momentum across several segments. Management reaffirmed guidance, highlighted a disciplined pricing approach, and expressed confidence in merger benefits while acknowledging regulatory timing and merger-related costs. Key negatives were fuel-price-driven margin pressure (near-term), international intermodal weakness (-28%), merger cost and timing uncertainty, and some soft end markets (auto, lumber). On balance, the tangible financial and operational accomplishments, cash/ balance-sheet strength, and clear business development pipeline materially outweigh the lowlights tied largely to macro volatility and transaction timing.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Financial Results
Reported net income of $1.7 billion, up 5% year-over-year; reported EPS $2.87, up 6%. Adjusted net income (ex-merger costs) up 7% and adjusted EPS $2.93, up 9%. Reported operating income and net income were first-quarter records.
Negative Updates
Overall Volume Decline and Soft End Markets
Total carload volume declined 1% in the quarter. Automotive and some forest products (lumber) markets remain soft (SAAR for lumber and auto cited as negative). Premium business volumes fell 9%, resulting in a 5% decline in premium revenue despite a 4% increase in average revenue per car.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Financial Results
Reported net income of $1.7 billion, up 5% year-over-year; reported EPS $2.87, up 6%. Adjusted net income (ex-merger costs) up 7% and adjusted EPS $2.93, up 9%. Reported operating income and net income were first-quarter records.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, calling for reported EPS to grow mid‑single‑digits and for operating‑ratio improvement (noting the outlook is on a reported basis and includes merger costs and no share repurchases), while confirming a 3‑year EPS CAGR target of high single‑digit to low double‑digit through 2027; they cautioned fuel is a Q2 headwind after an original diesel estimate of $2.35/gal and recent April levels running north of $4/gal. Management pointed to Q1 results that support the view — reported net income $1.7B (+5%), GAAP EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), adjusted operating ratio 59.9% (improved 80 bps ex‑merger) — and reiterated confidence despite volatility, citing Q1 operating revenue $6.2B (+3%), freight revenue $5.9B (+4% on 1% lower volume), fuel surcharge $608M (+$43M), total operating expense $3.8B (+3%), compensation & benefits +1% with a 5% smaller workforce and Q1 cost per employee +6.5%, fuel expense +7% (avg fuel $2.51→$2.69/gal), cash from operations $2.4B (+10%), free cash flow $630M, net debt down $1.2B, adjusted debt/EBITDA 2.5x and A‑rated by all three agencies.Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.70B | 24.51B | 24.25B | 24.12B | 24.88B | 21.80B |
| Gross Profit | 11.28B | 14.55B | 11.04B | 10.53B | 11.21B | 10.51B |
| EBITDA | 12.98B | 12.95B | 12.50B | 11.93B | 12.64B | 11.84B |
| Net Income | 7.21B | 7.14B | 6.75B | 6.38B | 7.00B | 6.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 69.64B | 69.70B | 67.72B | 67.13B | 65.45B | 63.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.04B | 1.52B | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 31.50B | 31.81B | 32.46B | 34.18B | 34.96B | 31.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.23B | 51.23B | 50.83B | 52.34B | 53.29B | 49.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.42B | 18.47B | 16.89B | 14.79B | 12.16B | 14.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.70B | 5.50B | 5.89B | 4.77B | 5.74B | 6.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.52B | 9.29B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 9.36B | 9.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.81B | -3.76B | -3.33B | -3.67B | -3.47B | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.38B | -5.28B | -6.07B | -4.63B | -5.89B | -7.16B |
Union Pacific Technical Analysis
Positive
251.14
Price Trends
251.50
Negative
241.37
Positive
231.60
Positive
Market Momentum
1.15
Negative
57.71
Neutral
69.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 251.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 244.90, below the 50-day MA of 251.50, and above the 200-day MA of 231.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNP.
Union Pacific Risk Analysis
Union Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Union Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The combined company's indebtedness may limit its flexibility and increase its borrowing costs - Q4, 2025
2.
The financing arrangements that the combined company will enter into in connection with the mergers may, under certain circumstances, contain restrictions and limitations that could significantly impact the combined company's ability to operate its business - Q4, 2025
3.
The mergers are subject to conditions, some or all of which may not be satisfied or completed on a timely basis, if at all. Failure to complete the mergers could have material adverse effects on our business - Q4, 2025
Union Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $83.30B | 23.65 | 23.52% | 1.42% | -0.92% | -2.64% | |
72 Outperform | C$93.37B | 19.09 | 21.93% | 2.62% | 0.47% | 6.34% | |
72 Outperform | C$104.48B | 29.01 | 8.85% | 0.82% | 1.10% | 8.73% | |
71 Outperform | $23.14B | 35.63 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
71 Outperform | $70.08B | 29.53 | 17.43% | 1.85% | 0.60% | -19.01% | |
65 Neutral | $157.13B | 21.15 | 40.38% | 2.32% | 1.87% | 9.41% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UNP
Union Pacific
264.65
39.10
17.34%
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245.40
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312.01
77.26
32.91%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.