Union Pacific (UNP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $132.70B
• Dividend Yield: 2.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: 8.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,146
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 3.03
• Shares Outstanding: 593,039,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,740,861
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,764,844
• PEG Ratio: 3.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.43
• 1Y Price Target: $260.25
• Price Target Upside: 15.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $257.00 ▲(14.07% Upside)

Union Pacific's strong financial performance and strategic merger drive a high overall score. The company's operational efficiency and fair valuation further support its investment appeal, despite mixed technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Union Pacific reported adjusted earnings per share that exceeded both the analyst estimate and consensus due to lower expenses and additional income.

Operational Performance

The network is achieving record levels in workforce productivity and train length, indicating strong operational performance.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

Any potential deal with Norfolk Southern would face regulatory and customer scrutiny, high hurdles that could be difficult to overcome.

Volume Decline

Management expects a significant air pocket to come later in the quarter, calling for a sequential decline in international IM volumes.

Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. As of December 31, 2021, its rail network included 32,452 route miles connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Union Pacific generates revenue primarily through the transportation of freight. Its revenue model is built on several key streams: first, the movement of bulk commodities such as coal, agricultural products, and chemicals, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. Second, the company earns income from merchandise freight, which includes manufactured goods and consumer products. Third, intermodal services, where goods are transported in containers that can be moved seamlessly between rail and truck transport, also contribute notably to revenue. Additionally, Union Pacific has established partnerships with various industries to enhance logistics and supply chain efficiency, ensuring consistent demand for its services. Factors such as economic growth, infrastructure investments, and the overall health of the freight market significantly influence the company's earnings.

Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Union Pacific demonstrates strong financial performance with stable revenue growth, strong profitability, and efficient cash flow management. While leverage is moderate, strategic debt reductions could further enhance the financial standing. The company is in a mature growth phase, maintaining consistent profitability.

Income Statement

Union Pacific demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin over the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to previous years. Revenue growth is modest but stable, and EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate efficient operations. However, revenue growth has slowed slightly in recent years, suggesting a mature growth phase.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a healthy Equity Ratio, reflecting a reasonable proportion of equity financing. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is moderate, indicating manageable leverage levels. Return on Equity remains strong, showcasing effective use of shareholders' funds, although there is room for improvement in reducing total debt further.

Cash Flow

Union Pacific's cash flow statements reveal a strong ability to generate operating cash flows, supported by a solid Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is positive, but capital expenditures have impacted free cash flow levels. Overall, cash flow management remains robust, with potential to enhance free cash flow through optimized capital spending.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.39B	24.25B	24.12B	24.88B	21.80B	19.53B
Gross Profit	11.14B	11.04B	10.53B	11.21B	10.51B	9.18B
EBITDA	12.64B	12.50B	11.93B	12.64B	11.84B	10.33B
Net Income	6.93B	6.75B	6.38B	7.00B	6.52B	5.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	68.58B	67.72B	67.13B	65.45B	63.52B	62.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	1.04B	1.07B	1.02B	1.01B	1.86B
Total Debt	33.96B	32.46B	34.18B	34.96B	31.49B	28.33B
Total Liabilities	52.32B	50.83B	52.34B	53.29B	49.36B	45.44B
Stockholders Equity	16.26B	16.89B	14.79B	12.16B	14.16B	16.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.26B	5.89B	4.77B	5.74B	6.10B	5.61B
Operating Cash Flow	9.86B	9.35B	8.38B	9.36B	9.03B	8.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.57B	-3.33B	-3.67B	-3.47B	-2.71B	-2.68B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.35B	-6.07B	-4.63B	-5.89B	-7.16B	-4.90B

Union Pacific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 225.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 225.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 222.93, below the 50-day MA of 226.77, and below the 200-day MA of 229.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNP.

Union Pacific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UNP	80 Outperform	$132.70B	19.44	42.35%	2.38%	1.06%	8.13%
NSC	79 Outperform	$64.06B	19.29	24.11%	1.89%	0.71%	86.84%
CSX	76 Outperform	$68.08B	22.44	24.83%	1.39%	-3.27%	-10.73%
FDX	73 Outperform	$55.00B	13.86	14.68%	2.46%	0.27%	-2.64%
UPS	69 Neutral	$74.42B	13.05	34.96%	7.53%	0.94%	9.62%
ODFL	67 Neutral	$32.53B	30.23	26.25%	0.72%	-5.54%	-12.26%
Sector *	60 Neutral	kr43.36B	13.66	1.95%	2.33%	-0.60%	-20.68%

Union Pacific Corporate Events

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 28, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation announced an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Norfolk Southern Corporation, involving a two-step merger process. This strategic move, unanimously approved by Union Pacific’s Board of Directors, aims to enhance Union Pacific’s market position by making Norfolk Southern a wholly owned subsidiary. The merger agreement outlines the conversion of Norfolk Southern’s stock into Union Pacific’s stock and cash, and includes provisions for the treatment of Norfolk Southern’s equity awards. The completion of the merger is contingent upon customary closing conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals. The merger is expected to significantly impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, with Norfolk Southern’s stock being delisted from the NYSE upon consummation.

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 29, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation announced a merger agreement to create America’s first transcontinental railroad. This strategic combination, valued at over $250 billion, aims to transform the U.S. supply chain, enhance freight competition, and unlock significant synergies, while preserving union jobs and promoting technological advancements.

Union Pacific in Advanced Merger Talks with Norfolk Southern

On July 24, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation announced that they are in advanced discussions regarding a potential merger. While no agreement has been finalized, the potential business combination could significantly impact the operations and market positioning of both companies in the transportation sector.