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Union Pacific
(NYSE:UNP)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$333.00
â–²(8.36% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/24/26
UNP’s score is led by strong earnings-call momentum (record quarter and raised guidance) and supportive technical strength (price above key moving averages, positive MACD). Offsetting these positives, the financial statement analysis flags near-term TTM weakness (notably the sharp revenue and free-cash-flow declines) and the balance sheet’s historically higher leverage. Valuation is reasonable but not cheap given the mid-20s P/E and modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Extensive rail network and diversified freight base
The large western network, terminals and diversified commodity exposure create a difficult-to-replicate operating platform. This supports customer embeddedness, network density and resilience because weakness in one freight category can be partly offset by others.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue and free-cash-flow deterioration
The sharp TTM declines indicate that recent operating conditions have been materially weaker than the stable low-single-digit annual growth trend. If sustained, weaker revenue would reduce operating leverage and constrain cash available for investment, dividends and debt repayment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Extensive rail network and diversified freight base
The large western network, terminals and diversified commodity exposure create a difficult-to-replicate operating platform. This supports customer embeddedness, network density and resilience because weakness in one freight category can be partly offset by others.
Read all positive factors
Union Pacific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Locomotive Productivity
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnion Pacific (UNP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$179.29B
Dividend Yield1.82%
Average Volume (3M)2.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.6
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth4.17%
EPS Growth7.24%
CountryUS
Employees28,716
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.37
Shares Outstanding594,075,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,563,239
30 Day Avg. Volume2,842,031
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.35
Price to Book (P/B)7.42
Price to Sales (P/S)5.59
P/FCF Ratio24.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$334.11Price Target Upside8.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)13.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.78B
Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodit...
How the Company Makes Money
Union Pacific primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight by rail. Revenue is generated from contractual and tariff-based rail shipping rates that typically reflect shipment distance, volume, equipment type, service requiremen...
Union Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution and record financial performance: robust revenue growth (+12%), healthy cash generation (+21% cash from operations), multiple operational records and an upgraded EPS outlook. Key challenges are largely exogenous (fuel price volatility) or industry-specific (coal weakness, international intermodal softness) and are being managed with productivity gains, pricing and capacity investments. The merger with Norfolk Southern advanced (application accepted) and the settlement with Canadian National further strengthens the strategic case — management framed these as growth-enabling commitments. Overall, positive momentum and raised guidance outweigh the cost and market headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results and Raised Outlook
Reported record Q2 results: net income of $2.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.41. Operating revenue was $6.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Management raised 2026 full-year reported EPS growth to the high single-digit range.
Negative Updates
Higher Operating Expenses Driven by Fuel
Total operating expenses increased 13% to $4.1 billion, primarily due to fuel. Fuel expense grew 63% year-over-year as average fuel price rose ~60% (from $2.42 to $3.86 per gallon), which added ~120 basis points to the operating ratio and contributed to volatility in margins.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results and Raised Outlook
Reported record Q2 results: net income of $2.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.41. Operating revenue was $6.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Management raised 2026 full-year reported EPS growth to the high single-digit range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Union Pacific raised 2026 guidance to reported EPS growth in the high single‑digit range after a record Q2 that featured operating revenue of $6.9B (+12% YoY) and freight revenue of $6.5B (+12%, or +4% ex‑fuel to $5.5B), net income of $2.0B and reported EPS of $3.36 (adjusted EPS $3.41); volume was up 2% and YTD reported EPS is +6% (in line with January outlook). Q2 operating ratio was 59.2% (fuel added ~120 bps; management noted an adjusted‑noise OR near 58%), total operating expense $4.1B (+13%), fuel expense +63% on a 60% higher average fuel price ($3.86/gal vs. $2.42 a year ago; recent purchases >$4/gal) and fuel surcharge added ~750 bps (~$460M). Productivity and service metrics underpinning the outlook include eight consecutive quarters of record workforce productivity (workforce productivity +5%), car velocity +5% to 231 miles/day, train speed +3%, terminal dwell improved 7% to 19.7 hours, intermodal and manifest service indices at 95%, locomotive productivity 142 (+1%) and train length +2%. Balance sheet and cash metrics supporting the guide: cash from operations $5.5B (+21% YoY), free cash flow $1.8B, $1.5B of long‑term debt paid down and adjusted debt/EBITDA of 2.5x; comp per employee is expected to rise ~6% for the year (Q2 comp per employee +7% ex‑one‑timers).Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.41B | 24.51B | 24.25B | 24.12B | 24.88B | 21.80B |
| Gross Profit | 11.57B | 14.55B | 11.04B | 10.53B | 11.21B | 10.51B |
| EBITDA | 13.32B | 12.95B | 12.50B | 11.93B | 12.64B | 11.84B |
| Net Income | 7.33B | 7.14B | 6.75B | 6.38B | 7.00B | 6.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.21B | 69.70B | 67.72B | 67.13B | 65.45B | 63.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.11B | 1.52B | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 31.17B | 31.81B | 32.46B | 34.18B | 34.96B | 31.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.54B | 51.23B | 50.83B | 52.34B | 53.29B | 49.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.67B | 18.47B | 16.89B | 14.79B | 12.16B | 14.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.50B | 5.50B | 5.89B | 4.77B | 5.74B | 6.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.26B | 9.29B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 9.36B | 9.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.99B | -3.76B | -3.33B | -3.67B | -3.47B | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.74B | -5.28B | -6.07B | -4.63B | -5.89B | -7.16B |
Union Pacific Risk Analysis
Union Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Union Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Union Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $93.88B | 29.46 | 24.06% | 1.01% | 2.52% | 6.32% | |
76 Outperform | $42.52B | 39.33 | 24.87% | 0.49% | -0.64% | 1.47% | |
72 Outperform | $25.58B | 38.99 | 18.75% | 0.62% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
70 Outperform | $77.65B | 29.58 | 16.80% | 1.54% | 2.97% | -20.83% | |
69 Neutral | $179.29B | 24.57 | 38.65% | 1.80% | 4.17% | 7.24% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $16.89B | 27.09 | 36.01% | 1.35% | -0.09% | 19.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UNP
Union Pacific
303.97
83.67
37.98%
CHRW
CH Robinson
143.83
22.94
18.98%
CSX
CSX
50.97
15.60
44.11%
JBHT
JB Hunt
274.47
132.24
92.97%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
346.62
67.20
24.05%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
204.52
55.74
37.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.