Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) AI Stock Analysis

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Old Dominion Freight

(NASDAQ:ODFL)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$159.00

▲(8.05% Upside)

Old Dominion Freight Line's overall stock score is driven by strong financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns, which are counteracted by bearish technical indicators and high valuation. Challenges in revenue growth and increased costs from the earnings call also affect the score.

Positive Factors

Market Share Growth

ODFL is confident it will continue delivering superior service and win market share over the long term.

Pricing Strategy

Steadfast pricing discipline should see revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel grow by 4% to 4.5% in 3Q.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

The third quarter outlook is weaker than estimates with continued cost pressures and operating ratio deterioration worse than the 10-year average.

Volume Growth

ODFL was down over 9% given volume growth that was lower than peers and a third quarter operating ratio outlook that was worse than estimates.

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$31.10B

Dividend Yield0.74%

Average Volume (3M)1.92M

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.7

Beta (1Y)1.18

Revenue Growth-5.54%

EPS Growth-12.26%

CountryUS

Employees21,817

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength84

IndustryTrucking

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.27

Shares Outstanding211,325,400

10 Day Avg. Volume2,502,751

30 Day Avg. Volume1,917,433

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-12.08

Price to Book (P/B)8.95

Price to Sales (P/S)6.53

P/FCF Ratio42.78

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.04

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.56

Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.66

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$165.16

Price Target Upside12.24% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering20

Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is a leading American less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping company headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina. Founded in 1934, ODFL operates within the transportation and logistics sector, providing comprehensive freight services, including regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. The company is known for its reliable and efficient transportation solutions, serving a diverse range of industries with a strong emphasis on customer service and operational excellence.

How the Company Makes MoneyOld Dominion Freight Line makes money primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping services. The company generates revenue by transporting smaller freight shipments that do not require a full truckload, consolidating these shipments from multiple customers into a single truck. ODFL charges customers based on factors such as shipment weight, distance, and freight class. The company benefits from a well-established network of service centers and a fleet of trucks that enable efficient and timely delivery. Key revenue streams include domestic LTL services, premium service offerings such as expedited shipping, and value-added services like logistics and supply chain management. Additionally, partnerships with other transportation providers and continuous investments in technology and infrastructure contribute to ODFL's ability to maintain competitive pricing and high service quality, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Intercity Miles

Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.

Chart InsightsIntercity Miles for Old Dominion Freight have shown a declining trend since mid-2022, reflecting broader economic challenges and reduced freight volumes. The latest earnings call highlights a 5.8% revenue decline and increased operating ratios, underscoring the impact of a soft domestic economy. Despite these headwinds, Old Dominion is focusing on cost control and operational efficiencies, maintaining high service performance. The company is cautiously reducing capital expenditures, indicating a strategic shift to navigate ongoing uncertainties while aiming to leverage its strong service proposition for future market share gains.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -9.23%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment with a focus on strong service performance and pricing discipline helping to maintain yield increases despite a decline in revenue and volumes. The company remains optimistic about leveraging its investments and cost control measures, though continued challenges in managing operating expenses and the prolonged soft demand environment pose significant concerns.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Stable Yield Increase Amidst Revenue Decline

Despite a 6.1% decrease in revenue to $1.41 billion due to a 9.3% decrease in LTL tons per day, Old Dominion reported a 3.4% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, reflecting pricing discipline.

Strong Service Performance

Old Dominion maintained a 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%, strengthening customer relationships and market share stability.

Cash Flow and Investment

The company generated $285.9 million in cash flow from operations in Q2 and made $187.2 million in capital expenditures, maintaining investments in network, technology, and employee base.

Negative Updates

Revenue and Volume Decline

Old Dominion's revenue decreased by 6.1% year-over-year, with LTL tons per day dropping by 9.3%. The sequential revenue increase of 0.8% was below the 10-year average sequential growth of 8.2%.

Increased Operating Ratio and Costs

Operating ratio increased by 270 basis points to 74.6% due to a deleveraging effect from decreased revenue, with overhead costs as a percentage of revenue rising 160 basis points.

Future Challenges in Cost Management

Anticipated increases in salary, wages, and benefits, especially with a scheduled wage increase and higher fringe benefit costs, are expected to exert upward pressure on the operating ratio.

Company Guidance

In the Old Dominion Freight Line's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a revenue of $1.41 billion, reflecting a 6.1% decrease from the prior year, primarily due to a 9.3% decline in less-than-truckload (LTL) tons per day. However, the company achieved a 3.4% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The operating ratio increased by 270 basis points to 74.6%, with overhead costs rising by 160 basis points as a percentage of revenue. Despite these challenges, the company maintained a strong on-time performance of 99% and a low cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. Cash flow from operations was $285.9 million for the quarter, with capital expenditures totaling $187.2 million. Old Dominion also returned $223.5 million to shareholders through its share repurchase program and paid $59.0 million in dividends. Looking forward, the company expects a potential increase in the operating ratio by 80 to 120 basis points in the third quarter, depending on revenue performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Old Dominion Freight Line's financial performance is strong, evidenced by its consistent profitability, stable financial position, and robust cash flow. Despite slowing revenue and free cash flow growth, the company's operational efficiency and solid capital structure are notable strengths.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Old Dominion Freight's income statement reflects strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and solid net profit margin. The company has maintained a steady EBIT and EBITDA margin over the years, indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been declining, which could become a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Old Dominion Freight shows a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial management. The company's return on equity remains strong, highlighting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is high, signifying a robust capital structure, although the pace of equity growth has moderated.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals healthy operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow growth has slowed, and substantial capital expenditures have impacted free cash flow ratios. The company remains capable of sustaining operations and investing in growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.73B	5.81B	5.87B	6.26B	5.26B	4.02B
Gross Profit	1.97B	2.02B	2.07B	2.26B	1.78B	1.23B
EBITDA	1.85B	1.90B	1.97B	2.12B	1.65B	1.17B
Net Income	1.15B	1.19B	1.24B	1.38B	1.03B	672.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.49B	5.49B	5.51B	4.84B	4.82B	4.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	97.20M	108.68M	433.80M	235.67M	717.00M	731.70M
Total Debt	59.99M	168.29M	200.38M	198.06M	202.75M	206.23M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.25B	1.25B	1.19B	1.14B	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	4.24B	4.24B	4.26B	3.65B	3.68B	3.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	831.95M	887.97M	811.83M	916.43M	662.53M	707.94M
Operating Cash Flow	1.57B	1.66B	1.57B	1.69B	1.21B	933.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-716.16M	-751.19M	-659.82M	-547.47M	-455.29M	-551.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.34B	-1.23B	-661.83M	-1.42B	-696.18M	-383.50M

Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price147.15

Price Trends

50DMA

160.87

Negative

100DMA

160.42

Negative

200DMA

177.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-4.77

Positive

RSI

36.45

Neutral

STOCH

18.38

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 147.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.09, below the 50-day MA of 160.87, and below the 200-day MA of 177.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.

Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis

Old Dominion Freight disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (71)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARCB	72 Outperform	$1.70B	11.11	12.50%	0.68%	-6.42%	25.72%
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥258.28B	14.57	8.48%	2.82%	6.30%	11.95%
SAIA	71 Outperform	$7.97B	27.22	12.69%	―	4.23%	-23.94%
ODFL	67 Neutral	$31.10B	28.72	26.25%	0.74%	-5.54%	-12.26%
SNDR	65 Neutral	$4.34B	34.77	4.20%	1.57%	2.20%	7.86%
KNX	61 Neutral	$6.88B	41.75	2.33%	1.64%	-2.54%	144.49%
WERN	61 Neutral	$1.70B	32.22	3.65%	2.10%	-6.43%	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ODFL

Old Dominion Freight

145.33

-49.53

-25.42%

KNX

Knight Transportation

41.45

-10.37

-20.01%

SAIA

Saia

284.30

-100.41

-26.10%

WERN

Werner Enterprises

26.69

-9.79

-26.84%

ARCB

ArcBest

71.65

-33.81

-32.06%

SNDR

Schneider National

24.16

-2.78

-10.32%

Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events

Dividends

Old Dominion Freight Increases Quarterly Dividend by 7.7%

Positive

Jul 24, 2025

On July 24, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, marking a 7.7% increase from the previous year. This dividend, payable on September 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 3, 2025, underscores the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and reflects its stable financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Hold with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Old Dominion Freight Reports Revenue Decline for May 2025

Negative

Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 5.8% decrease in revenue per day for May 2025 compared to May 2024, attributed to an 8.4% drop in LTL tons per day. Despite this, LTL revenue per hundredweight increased, reflecting the company’s strong service metrics and yield management initiatives. President Marty Freeman noted that while the domestic economy remains soft, Old Dominion’s market share has remained stable, and the company is focused on executing its long-term strategic plan to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsDividends

Old Dominion Freight Announces Increased Quarterly Dividend

Positive

May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line held its Annual Meeting where shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of twelve directors, approval of executive compensation, and the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan. The appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm was ratified, while a shareholder proposal on emission reduction targets was not approved. On May 22, 2025, the company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year, payable on June 18, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025