Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
NASDAQ:ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$248.00
▲(25.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
Score is driven primarily by exceptional balance-sheet strength and strong cash generation/profitability through the cycle. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend. Offsetting factors are premium valuation (high P/E with low yield) and earnings-call commentary pointing to continued near-term volume/revenue weakness and higher operating ratio/cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Minimal leverage and a large, stable equity base provide durable financial flexibility through freight cycles. This strength supports continued capital investment, aggressive share repurchases/dividends when appropriate, and insulation from credit stress that preserves operational resilience over months.
Negative Factors
Persistent volume and revenue weakness
Material declines in tons and shipments reduce fixed-cost absorption across terminals and linehaul, pressuring margins and operating leverage. If volumes remain depressed for several months, earnings and network efficiency can deteriorate despite pricing discipline, delaying recovery benefits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Minimal leverage and a large, stable equity base provide durable financial flexibility through freight cycles. This strength supports continued capital investment, aggressive share repurchases/dividends when appropriate, and insulation from credit stress that preserves operational resilience over months.
Read all positive factors
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.27B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)2.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.1
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-5.90%
EPS Growth-13.16%
CountryUS
Employees21,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.09
Shares Outstanding208,425,610
10 Day Avg. Volume2,382,102
30 Day Avg. Volume2,241,803
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.68
Price to Book (P/B)7.63
Price to Sales (P/S)5.99
P/FCF Ratio34.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$202.26Price Target Upside2.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)5.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.58B
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also off...
How the Company Makes Money
Old Dominion Freight Line generates revenue primarily through its LTL transportation services, which involve consolidating shipments from multiple customers into a single truckload for more efficient delivery. The company charges customers based o...
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOld Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational and financial strengths (industry-leading service, strong cash generation, disciplined yields, and maintained direct cost control) against meaningful near-term demand weakness (declines in revenue, tons and shipments), a higher operating ratio, and higher expected cost and tax pressures. Management expressed cautious optimism about an early-cycle recovery and positioned the company to capture share, but near-term metrics remain challenged.Positive Updates
Strong Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service in Q4 and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%, reinforcing consistent operational execution and customer satisfaction.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenue of $1.31B for the quarter was down 5.7% year-over-year; management expects first-quarter revenue in a range of $1.25B to $1.30B, implying continued near-term top-line pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service in Q4 and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%, reinforcing consistent operational execution and customer satisfaction.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's near-term guidance called for first-quarter 2026 revenue of roughly $1.25–$1.30 billion and an operating-ratio increase of ~150 basis points (±20 bps) versus Q4; they noted January was below seasonality but said normal seasonality would imply LTL revenue/cwt up ~4–4.5% (with an estimated ~50 bps headwind from higher weight per shipment). They flagged that a typical spring surge has historically driven ~7% sequential revenue growth and ~300–350 bps of sequential OR improvement in Q2 if it materializes, and reiterated confidence in mid‑40s incremental margins as density returns. For 2026 they expect an effective tax rate of ~25%, plan roughly $265 million of capital expenditures (vs $415M in 2025), anticipate core cost inflation of about 5–5.5%, and the Board approved a $0.29 quarterly dividend (a 3.6% increase); 2025 baselines cited included a 76.7% Q4 OR and direct operating costs at ~53% of revenue.Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
96
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.50B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.77B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.73B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.47B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 120.09M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M |
| Total Debt | 39.99M | 168.29M | 79.98M | 99.96M | 99.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.16B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.31B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 955.10M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.37B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -366.41M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -992.31M | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Positive
198.00
Price Trends
190.87
Positive
171.76
Positive
160.49
Positive
Market Momentum
1.04
Negative
57.99
Neutral
87.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 198 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.43, above the 50-day MA of 190.87, and above the 200-day MA of 160.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $41.27B | 32.15 | 24.03% | 0.71% | -5.90% | -13.16% | |
68 Neutral | $9.45B | 34.23 | 10.30% | ― | 1.96% | -24.55% | |
66 Neutral | $4.74B | 44.87 | 3.44% | 1.40% | 5.46% | 2.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $9.52B | 128.70 | 0.93% | 1.34% | >-0.01% | 279.47% | |
56 Neutral | $2.24B | -51.41 | 4.61% | 0.62% | -5.34% | -48.16% | |
49 Neutral | $1.82B | -126.32 | -1.03% | 1.84% | -3.42% | -43.86% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
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47.64
31.68%
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Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Posts Lower February LTL Revenue, Optimistic Outlook
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that its February 2026 LTL revenue per day fell 3.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 6.8% drop in LTL tons per day as shipments per day declined 7.0%, partly offset by slightly heavier average ...
Executive/Board Changes
Old Dominion Freight Board Member Resigns, Board Size Reduced
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Debra S. King resigned from the Board of Directors of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., citing time commitments related to other professional obligations. Following her resignation, the Board reduced its size to eleven director...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.