Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $40.53B
• Dividend Yield: 0.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -5.90%
• EPS Growth: -13.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,817
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 209,098,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,356,231
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,350,750
• PEG Ratio: -12.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 42.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.98
• 1Y Price Target: $193.68
• Price Target Upside: -3.83% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.99
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.56B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $210.00 ▲(4.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high profitability, low leverage, and solid cash generation). Technicals remain supportive with the stock above key moving averages, but overbought signals add near-term risk. Valuation is a meaningful drag due to a high P/E and low yield, and the earnings call indicates continued volume/revenue weakness and margin pressure in the near term despite strong execution and pricing discipline.

Positive Factors

High profitability and margins

Sustained high gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and operational efficiency in the LTL model. Over a multi-month horizon, strong margins provide a cushion against volume cyclicality, support reinvestment in fleet/terminals and enable steady free cash flow generation.

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Minimal leverage gives the firm financial flexibility to absorb demand shocks, fund capex, and continue shareholder returns without stressing liquidity. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic investments during a multi-quarter recovery period.

Robust cash generation and capital returns

Consistent operating cash flow and sizeable buybacks/dividends demonstrate strong cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation. This durable cash generation supports funding of fleet modernization, network investments, and returns to shareholders even if revenue growth remains muted for several quarters.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and volumes

Sustained declines in revenue, tons, and shipments signal structural demand softness that erodes operating leverage. If volumes remain depressed for multiple quarters, fixed cost absorption worsens, pressuring margins and the trajectory of earnings despite pricing discipline.

Rising operating ratio and overhead pressure

Higher operating ratio and elevated overhead reflect deleveraging from volume declines and ongoing capex-related depreciation. Persistently higher fixed costs reduce structural profitability and make margin recovery dependent on a sustained rebound in utilization rather than short-term pricing moves.

Higher cost inflation and tax headwinds

Elevated input cost inflation and a higher effective tax rate are structural margin headwinds that compress free cash flow unless offset by sustained yield gains or productivity improvements. Over several quarters, these pressures can limit earnings recovery and constrain discretionary capital allocation.

Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Old Dominion Freight Line generates revenue primarily through its LTL transportation services, which involve consolidating shipments from multiple customers into a single truckload for more efficient delivery. The company charges customers based on weight, distance, and type of service required, leading to varied pricing structures. Key revenue streams include base freight charges, fuel surcharges, and additional services such as expedited shipping and logistics solutions. ODFL also benefits from long-term customer relationships and contracts, which provide a stable income base. Strategic investments in technology and an extensive network of terminals and service centers further enhance operational efficiency, contributing to profitability.

Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and operating efficiency (net margins ~19–21%, solid EBIT/EBITDA margins), very low leverage with a healthy equity base, and strong operating cash flow/free-cash-flow generation. Main offset is negative/declining revenue trends indicating demand/volume pressure.

Income Statement

Old Dominion Freight shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 33-36% and a net profit margin of approximately 19-21%. However, recent revenue growth has been negative, indicating challenges in expanding sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operations despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a very low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating minimal leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is strong, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid financial foundation with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong relative to net income, indicating good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow has grown positively, although the growth rate has fluctuated. The free cash flow to net income ratio is solid, reflecting efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.57B	5.81B	5.87B	6.26B	5.26B	4.02B
Gross Profit	1.84B	2.02B	2.07B	2.26B	1.78B	1.23B
EBITDA	1.75B	1.90B	1.97B	2.12B	1.65B	1.17B
Net Income	1.06B	1.19B	1.24B	1.38B	1.03B	672.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.52B	5.49B	5.51B	4.84B	4.82B	4.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.59M	108.68M	433.80M	235.67M	717.00M	731.70M
Total Debt	84.99M	168.29M	79.98M	99.96M	99.95M	99.93M
Total Liabilities	1.25B	1.25B	1.25B	1.19B	1.14B	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	4.26B	4.24B	4.26B	3.65B	3.68B	3.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	920.72M	887.97M	811.83M	916.43M	662.53M	707.94M
Operating Cash Flow	1.46B	1.66B	1.57B	1.69B	1.21B	933.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-525.19M	-751.19M	-659.82M	-547.47M	-455.29M	-551.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-963.28M	-1.23B	-661.83M	-1.42B	-696.18M	-383.50M

Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 201.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 201.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.89, above the 50-day MA of 174.04, and above the 200-day MA of 156.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ODFL.

Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ODFL	71 Outperform	$40.53B	40.04	23.93%	0.71%	-5.90%	-13.16%
SAIA	70 Outperform	$10.40B	41.26	10.43%	―	1.96%	-24.55%
SNDR	66 Neutral	$5.04B	48.76	3.45%	1.40%	5.46%	2.31%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
WERN	63 Neutral	$2.03B	-139.28	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%
KNX	60 Neutral	$9.63B	146.36	0.93%	1.34%	>-0.01%	279.47%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$2.32B	39.31	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%

Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events

Old Dominion Freight Board Member Resigns, Board Size Reduced

On December 3, 2025, Debra S. King resigned from the Board of Directors of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., citing time commitments related to other professional obligations. Following her resignation, the Board reduced its size to eleven directors on December 8, 2025, indicating a streamlined governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.

Old Dominion Freight Reports Revenue Decline for November

On December 2, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 4.4% decrease in revenue per day for November 2025 compared to the previous year, attributed to a 10.0% drop in LTL tons per day. Despite this decline, the company increased its LTL revenue per hundredweight, reflecting ongoing economic softness but maintaining its strategic focus on yield management and service quality. This approach aims to support market share growth and enhance shareholder value over the long term.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $170.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.