Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
NASDAQ:ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$216.00
▼(-0.81% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
ODFL’s score is supported primarily by exceptional balance-sheet strength and strong cash generation, plus continued pricing discipline and service differentiation. The score is held back by the current downshift in volumes/revenue and weaker near-term technical momentum, alongside a high P/E and low dividend yield that provide limited valuation cushion.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through freight-cycle downturns. Minimal debt reduces liquidity risk, supports continued capex and buybacks, and preserves strategic optionality for reinvestment or opportunistic M&A over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Volume Weakness
Sustained declines in tons and shipments weaken network density, raising per-shipment unit costs and reducing operating leverage. If volume contraction persists, revenue growth and margin recovery will be constrained, limiting the company's ability to absorb fixed overhead.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through freight-cycle downturns. Minimal debt reduces liquidity risk, supports continued capex and buybacks, and preserves strategic optionality for reinvestment or opportunistic M&A over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOld Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.45B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)2.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.7
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth-4.77%
EPS Growth-10.37%
CountryUS
Employees21,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.79
Shares Outstanding207,968,280
10 Day Avg. Volume1,912,535
30 Day Avg. Volume2,000,441
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.68
Price to Book (P/B)7.63
Price to Sales (P/S)5.99
P/FCF Ratio34.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$218.11Price Target Upside0.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)5.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.72B
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also off...
How the Company Makes Money
Old Dominion makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight shipments that do not require a full truckload (LTL). Revenue is generated when shippers pay freight rates based on factors such as shipment weight and dimensions (freig...
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: operational and commercial positives (best-in-class service, disciplined yield gains, improving month-to-month tonnage in Feb–Mar, April revenue per day up ~7%, strong cash generation and continued strategic investments) are offset by meaningful volume declines (LTL tons per day down 7.7% YoY), a year-over-year revenue decline (-2.9%), an 80 bp deterioration in operating ratio to 76.2%, and ongoing cost pressures (overhead, depreciation, fuel, fringe benefits). Management is cautiously optimistic about sequential OR improvement into Q2 (historical 300–350 bp improvement) and market-share upside as demand normalizes, but near-term headwinds leave the narrative balanced.Positive Updates
Best-in-Class Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service and a claims ratio below 0.1% in Q1 2026, reinforcing the company's service differentiation and customer value proposition.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-over-Year
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $1.33 billion, a 2.9% decrease versus Q1 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Best-in-Class Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service and a claims ratio below 0.1% in Q1 2026, reinforcing the company's service differentiation and customer value proposition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated Q1-to-date metrics and Q2 expectations: Q1 revenue $1.33B (‑2.9% YoY), LTL tons/day ‑7.7% YoY, LTL revenue per cwt +5.7% (+4.4% ex‑fuel), and an operating ratio of 76.2% (up 80 bps); April MTD revenue/day ≈+7% YoY while April LTL tons/day ≈‑6.5%, weight per shipment ~1.49–1.50k lbs (up ~1%), and April rev/cwt ex‑fuel +4–4.5%. They reported cash from operations $373.6M, Q1 CapEx $62.6M, $88.1M of share repurchases, $60.5M of dividends, plan ~$205M CapEx for 2026 after ~ $2B invested the last three years, and expect a 25% effective tax rate. Looking ahead, management said they’re comfortable targeting the ten‑year average Q1→Q2 operating ratio improvement of roughly 300–350 basis points (contingent on sequential volume gains), continue disciplined yield management, aim for a 100–150 bp revenue‑per‑shipment over cost‑per‑shipment spread, and see industry excess capacity of roughly 5–10%, positioning them to win share as demand recovers.Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.46B | 5.50B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.69B | 1.77B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.73B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.66B | 5.59B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 288.08M | 120.09M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M |
| Total Debt | 40.00M | 141.40M | 168.29M | 79.98M | 99.96M | 99.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 4.31B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 955.10M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.37B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -336.14M | -366.41M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -880.22M | -992.31M | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Positive
217.76
Price Trends
200.20
Positive
191.89
Positive
167.81
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.51
Positive
51.79
Neutral
88.45
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 217.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 205.19, above the 50-day MA of 200.20, and above the 200-day MA of 167.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $12.22B | 47.13 | 10.04% | ― | 0.34% | -20.72% | |
68 Neutral | $42.45B | 42.70 | 23.42% | 0.71% | -4.77% | -10.37% | |
64 Neutral | $11.26B | -1,775.34 | 0.48% | 1.34% | 1.13% | -77.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $2.73B | -529.70 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
60 Neutral | $5.67B | 56.56 | 3.24% | 1.40% | 5.54% | -21.38% | |
59 Neutral | $2.27B | -103.41 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -154.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Posts Lower February LTL Revenue, Optimistic Outlook
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that its February 2026 LTL revenue per day fell 3.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 6.8% drop in LTL tons per day as shipments per day declined 7.0%, partly offset by slightly heavier average ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.