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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
NASDAQ:ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$183.00
▲( 13.27% Upside)
Positive Factors
Demand
ODFL saw improved demand for its services and tons per day were in line with normal sequential trends.
Pricing
ODFL’s pricing remains strong, and management expects revenue per hundredweight to increase by 5.0%-5.5% year-over-year.
Service Quality
Service remained best-in-class and the company believes they are well positioned to win share over the long term.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure
ODFL is cutting FY 2025 capex to $450 million from $575 million as it defers real estate projects and equipment spend.
Earnings
Revenue and earnings per share decreased year-over-year due to the challenging operating environment.
Macro Environment
Macro uncertainty has started to weigh on the business with ODFL seeing a weak start to April.
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.14B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.3
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-2.63%
EPS Growth-6.12%
CountryUS
Employees21,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength92
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.19
Shares Outstanding211,325,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,802,405
30 Day Avg. Volume1,957,030
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.85
Price to Book (P/B)8.33
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio39.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$170.44Price Target Upside5.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering18
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld Dominion Freight Line makes money primarily through its core LTL services, where it consolidates freight from multiple customers into a single shipment, optimizing the cargo load to improve efficiency and reduce costs. This model allows ODFL to charge customers based on the weight and volume of their shipments rather than requiring full truckloads. Additional revenue streams include value-added services such as expedited delivery options, global freight forwarding, and supply chain consulting. ODFL's advanced technology and strategic investments in infrastructure enhance its operational effectiveness, contributing to its profitability. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with other logistics providers to expand its service reach and capabilities.
Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Old Dominion Freight demonstrates strong financial health, particularly in its profitability and balance sheet stability. While there are concerns about recent revenue reporting, the company shows effective cost management and maintains a solid equity position. Cash flow generation is strong, though variability suggests monitoring is needed. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the transportation industry, yet careful attention to revenue trends is necessary.Income Statement
The company's revenue has shown a fluctuating pattern, with a notable decline in the latest period due to reported zero revenue. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have remained strong, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is favorable, highlighting profitability. However, the recent revenue decrease poses a potential risk.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, suggesting a solid foundation and limited leverage risk. This stability is a strong point for long-term growth and resilience in the transportation industry.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is robust, supporting the company's liquidity position. However, the free cash flow has seen fluctuations, with recent growth being positive. The cash flow to net income ratios indicate strong cash generation relative to profits, but variability in free cash flow growth presents some uncertainty.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B | 4.02B | Gross Profit |
| 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B | 1.23B | EBIT |
| 1.54B | 1.64B | 1.84B | 1.39B | 906.88M | EBITDA |
| 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B | 1.17B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B | 672.68M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 235.67M | 717.00M | Total Assets |
| 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.84B | 4.82B | Total Debt |
| 59.99M | 200.38M | 99.96M | 99.96M | 99.95M | Net Debt |
| -48.69M | -233.42M | -86.35M | -86.35M | -362.62M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.19B | 1.14B | Stockholders Equity |
| 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M | 707.94M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B | 933.02M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M | -551.66M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M | -383.50M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Negative
161.56
Price Trends
160.22
Positive
172.73
Negative
186.59
Negative
Market Momentum
2.17
Negative
48.66
Neutral
20.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 161.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.75, above the 50-day MA of 160.22, and below the 200-day MA of 186.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $34.14B | 30.29 | 26.59% | 0.66% | -2.63% | -6.12% | |
73 Outperform | $1.39B | 8.03 | 14.25% | 0.79% | -5.69% | 51.78% | |
72 Outperform | $7.04B | 22.05 | 14.63% | ― | 8.95% | -13.23% | |
65 Neutral | $4.07B | 32.83 | 4.20% | 1.63% | -0.30% | -20.76% | |
64 Neutral | $4.39B | 11.81 | 5.20% | 249.39% | 3.96% | -12.36% | |
63 Neutral | $6.94B | 46.06 | 2.13% | 1.54% | 1.16% | 36.33% | |
50 Neutral | $1.59B | 90.45 | 1.21% | 2.17% | -7.66% | -78.26% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
161.56
-10.78
-6.26%
KNX
Knight Transportation
42.82
-4.20
-8.93%
SAIA
Saia
264.32
-131.97
-33.30%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
25.76
-10.63
-29.21%
ARCB
ArcBest
60.77
-42.47
-41.14%
SNDR
Schneider National
23.25
1.56
7.19%
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 6.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a challenging economic environment with revenue declines and increased operating ratios. However, Old Dominion has managed to maintain strong service performance and shipment efficiency while controlling costs effectively. The reduced capital expenditure indicates cautiousness due to ongoing economic uncertainties.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Controlled Operating Costs
Despite revenue declines, Old Dominion maintained its operating ratio at 75.4% with increased focus on operating efficiencies and reducing discretionary spending.
Improvement in Shipment Efficiency
Old Dominion improved platform shipments per hour and P&D shipments per hour despite a 5% decline in LTL shipments per day.
High Service Performance
Old Dominion achieved a 99% on-time service performance and maintained a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Repurchases
Old Dominion generated $336.5 million in cash flow from operations and repurchased $201.1 million worth of shares in the first quarter.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Earnings Decline
Revenue declined by 5.8% to $1.37 billion, with LTL tons per day decreasing by 6.3% and LTL revenue per hundredweight only partially offsetting this with a 2.2% increase.
Increased Operating Ratio
The operating ratio increased by 190 basis points year-over-year to 75.4%, primarily due to the decrease in revenue.
Decreased Capital Expenditure Plans
Old Dominion revised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast down to $450 million from $575 million, deferring certain projects to future periods.
Continued Economic Uncertainty
Old Dominion faces continued softness in the domestic economy, impacting freight volumes and leading to decreased customer confidence and investment.
Company Guidance
During the Old Dominion Freight Line First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance reflecting a challenging operating environment due to continued softness in the domestic economy. Revenue for the first quarter totaled $1.37 billion, a 5.8% decrease from the prior year, driven by a 6.3% decrease in less-than-truckload (LTL) tons per day, partially offset by a 2.2% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company maintained a strong operating ratio of 75.4%, although this marked an increase of 190 basis points year-over-year due to revenue headwinds affecting operating expenses. Old Dominion continues to focus on maximizing operating efficiencies, reducing discretionary spending, and maintaining their 99% on-time service performance and cargo claims ratio below 0.1%. Looking forward, the company expects their capital expenditures for 2025 to total approximately $450 million, a $125 million reduction from initial plans, reflecting a strategic deferment of certain projects and a reduction in new equipment purchases. Despite these challenges, Old Dominion remains committed to executing its long-term strategic plan, maintaining a disciplined approach to yield management, and leveraging their unmatched value proposition to win market share over the long term. The company also highlighted their expectation for a 5% to 5.5% increase in revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, for the second quarter.Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Shareholder MeetingsDividends
Old Dominion Freight Announces Increased Quarterly Dividend
Positive
May 22, 2025
On May 21, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line held its Annual Meeting where shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of twelve directors, approval of executive compensation, and the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan. The appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm was ratified, while a shareholder proposal on emission reduction targets was not approved. On May 22, 2025, the company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year, payable on June 18, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Reports Revenue Decline in February
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 5.0% decrease in revenue per day for February 2025 compared to the previous year, attributed to a 7.1% decline in LTL tons per day. This was partly offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company cited continued softness in the domestic economy and lower fuel prices as factors affecting their yields. Despite the drop in revenue and volumes, demand for their services remains strong, and the company remains optimistic about future growth, focusing on delivering superior service and managing incremental growth effectively.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.