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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$247.00
▲(13.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
ODFL scores well primarily on high-quality financials—exceptional balance-sheet strength and strong cash generation—with supportive (though somewhat stretched) technical momentum. The score is held back by expensive valuation and a mixed near-term operating backdrop highlighted by ongoing volume declines and margin/operating-ratio pressure, despite continued pricing discipline and expectations for sequential improvement.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Extremely low leverage gives Old Dominion durable financial flexibility through freight-cycle downturns. Minimal debt reduces refinancing and interest risk, enabling continued capex, buybacks and dividends while preserving investment capacity to maintain service network and capture share as demand normalizes.
Negative Factors
Sustained volume weakness (tons/day)
Material year‑over‑year tonnage declines shrink the revenue base and amplify fixed‑cost deleverage in an asset‑heavy business. Persistently lower volumes prolong underutilization of terminals and fleet, pressuring unit economics and requiring several quarters of volume recovery to restore prior margin levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Extremely low leverage gives Old Dominion durable financial flexibility through freight-cycle downturns. Minimal debt reduces refinancing and interest risk, enabling continued capex, buybacks and dividends while preserving investment capacity to maintain service network and capture share as demand normalizes.
Read all positive factors
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOld Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.05B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)1.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)45.2
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-4.77%
EPS Growth-10.37%
CountryUS
Employees21,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.79
Shares Outstanding207,968,280
10 Day Avg. Volume2,263,252
30 Day Avg. Volume1,922,928
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.70
Price to Book (P/B)7.63
Price to Sales (P/S)5.99
P/FCF Ratio34.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.18Price Target Upside5.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)5.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.79B
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and na...
How the Company Makes Money
Old Dominion primarily makes money by charging customers for transporting LTL freight—shipments that do not require a full truckload—across its service network. Revenue is generated from (1) LTL linehaul and pickup-and-delivery services, where cus...
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: operational and commercial positives (best-in-class service, disciplined yield gains, improving month-to-month tonnage in Feb–Mar, April revenue per day up ~7%, strong cash generation and continued strategic investments) are offset by meaningful volume declines (LTL tons per day down 7.7% YoY), a year-over-year revenue decline (-2.9%), an 80 bp deterioration in operating ratio to 76.2%, and ongoing cost pressures (overhead, depreciation, fuel, fringe benefits). Management is cautiously optimistic about sequential OR improvement into Q2 (historical 300–350 bp improvement) and market-share upside as demand normalizes, but near-term headwinds leave the narrative balanced.Positive Updates
Best-in-Class Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service and a claims ratio below 0.1% in Q1 2026, reinforcing the company's service differentiation and customer value proposition.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-over-Year
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $1.33 billion, a 2.9% decrease versus Q1 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Best-in-Class Service Metrics
Maintained 99% on-time service and a claims ratio below 0.1% in Q1 2026, reinforcing the company's service differentiation and customer value proposition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated Q1-to-date metrics and Q2 expectations: Q1 revenue $1.33B (‑2.9% YoY), LTL tons/day ‑7.7% YoY, LTL revenue per cwt +5.7% (+4.4% ex‑fuel), and an operating ratio of 76.2% (up 80 bps); April MTD revenue/day ≈+7% YoY while April LTL tons/day ≈‑6.5%, weight per shipment ~1.49–1.50k lbs (up ~1%), and April rev/cwt ex‑fuel +4–4.5%. They reported cash from operations $373.6M, Q1 CapEx $62.6M, $88.1M of share repurchases, $60.5M of dividends, plan ~$205M CapEx for 2026 after ~ $2B invested the last three years, and expect a 25% effective tax rate. Looking ahead, management said they’re comfortable targeting the ten‑year average Q1→Q2 operating ratio improvement of roughly 300–350 basis points (contingent on sequential volume gains), continue disciplined yield management, aim for a 100–150 bp revenue‑per‑shipment over cost‑per‑shipment spread, and see industry excess capacity of roughly 5–10%, positioning them to win share as demand recovers.Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.46B | 5.50B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.69B | 1.77B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.73B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.66B | 5.59B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 288.08M | 120.09M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M |
| Total Debt | 40.00M | 141.40M | 168.29M | 79.98M | 99.96M | 99.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 4.31B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 955.10M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.37B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -336.14M | -366.41M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -880.22M | -992.31M | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Negative
217.76
Price Trends
218.00
Negative
207.11
Positive
178.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.52
Positive
45.51
Neutral
10.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 217.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 230.90, below the 50-day MA of 218.00, and above the 200-day MA of 178.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $45.05B | 45.22 | 23.42% | 0.71% | -4.77% | -10.37% | |
75 Outperform | $11.23B | 44.18 | 10.04% | ― | 0.34% | -20.72% | |
64 Neutral | $12.65B | 375.34 | 0.48% | 1.34% | 1.13% | -77.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $6.40B | 64.04 | 3.24% | 1.40% | 5.54% | -21.38% | |
58 Neutral | $3.20B | 59.11 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
54 Neutral | $2.61B | -289.15 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -154.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Reports Strong May Revenue Growth Trend
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that in May 2026 its revenue per day rose 12.3% from May 2025, driven by higher LTL revenue per hundredweight despite a 3.8% decline in LTL tons per day. The tonnage drop reflected a 5.3% decreas...
Executive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Old Dominion Freight Raises Quarterly Dividend After Shareholder Meeting
Positive
May 21, 2026
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., a leading North American LTL motor carrier with an integrated, union-free network, focuses on regional, inter-regional and national freight services complemented by expedited transportation, container drayage, truc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.