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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
NASDAQ:ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$178.00
▲(13.61%Upside)
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
ODFL operates efficiently, maintaining market share despite declines in tons per day, indicating a solid competitive position.
Pricing Strategy
ODFL's pricing remains strong, and management expects 2Q revenue per hundredweight to be in-line with normal seasonality, up 5.0%-5.5% year-over-year.
Negative Factors
Profitability Pressure
The company's operating income declined by 13% year-over-year, reflecting pressures on profitability.
Volume Decline
ODFL's tonnage per day decreased 8.8% year-over-year in April and 8.4% in May, showing continued pressure on volumes.
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$33.70B
Dividend Yield0.7%
Average Volume (3M)1.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.9
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth-2.63%
EPS Growth-6.12%
CountryUS
Employees21,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength85
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.19
Shares Outstanding211,325,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,490,005
30 Day Avg. Volume1,558,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)8.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio35.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$170.41Price Target Upside8.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is a leading American less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping company headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina. Founded in 1934, ODFL operates within the transportation and logistics sector, providing comprehensive freight services, including regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. The company is known for its reliable and efficient transportation solutions, serving a diverse range of industries with a strong emphasis on customer service and operational excellence.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld Dominion Freight Line makes money primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping services. The company generates revenue by transporting smaller freight shipments that do not require a full truckload, consolidating these shipments from multiple customers into a single truck. ODFL charges customers based on factors such as shipment weight, distance, and freight class. The company benefits from a well-established network of service centers and a fleet of trucks that enable efficient and timely delivery. Key revenue streams include domestic LTL services, premium service offerings such as expedited shipping, and value-added services like logistics and supply chain management. Additionally, partnerships with other transportation providers and continuous investments in technology and infrastructure contribute to ODFL's ability to maintain competitive pricing and high service quality, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataOld Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.20%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a challenging economic environment with revenue declines and increased operating ratios. However, Old Dominion has managed to maintain strong service performance and shipment efficiency while controlling costs effectively. The reduced capital expenditure indicates cautiousness due to ongoing economic uncertainties.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Controlled Operating Costs
Despite revenue declines, Old Dominion maintained its operating ratio at 75.4% with increased focus on operating efficiencies and reducing discretionary spending.
Improvement in Shipment Efficiency
Old Dominion improved platform shipments per hour and P&D shipments per hour despite a 5% decline in LTL shipments per day.
High Service Performance
Old Dominion achieved a 99% on-time service performance and maintained a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Repurchases
Old Dominion generated $336.5 million in cash flow from operations and repurchased $201.1 million worth of shares in the first quarter.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Earnings Decline
Revenue declined by 5.8% to $1.37 billion, with LTL tons per day decreasing by 6.3% and LTL revenue per hundredweight only partially offsetting this with a 2.2% increase.
Increased Operating Ratio
The operating ratio increased by 190 basis points year-over-year to 75.4%, primarily due to the decrease in revenue.
Decreased Capital Expenditure Plans
Old Dominion revised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast down to $450 million from $575 million, deferring certain projects to future periods.
Continued Economic Uncertainty
Old Dominion faces continued softness in the domestic economy, impacting freight volumes and leading to decreased customer confidence and investment.
Company Guidance
During the Old Dominion Freight Line First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance reflecting a challenging operating environment due to continued softness in the domestic economy. Revenue for the first quarter totaled $1.37 billion, a 5.8% decrease from the prior year, driven by a 6.3% decrease in less-than-truckload (LTL) tons per day, partially offset by a 2.2% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company maintained a strong operating ratio of 75.4%, although this marked an increase of 190 basis points year-over-year due to revenue headwinds affecting operating expenses. Old Dominion continues to focus on maximizing operating efficiencies, reducing discretionary spending, and maintaining their 99% on-time service performance and cargo claims ratio below 0.1%. Looking forward, the company expects their capital expenditures for 2025 to total approximately $450 million, a $125 million reduction from initial plans, reflecting a strategic deferment of certain projects and a reduction in new equipment purchases. Despite these challenges, Old Dominion remains committed to executing its long-term strategic plan, maintaining a disciplined approach to yield management, and leveraging their unmatched value proposition to win market share over the long term. The company also highlighted their expectation for a 5% to 5.5% increase in revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, for the second quarter.Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Old Dominion Freight exhibits strong profitability and a solid financial position, with consistent margins and low debt-to-equity ratio. However, slowing revenue and free cash flow growth are potential areas of concern.Income Statement
Old Dominion Freight's income statement reflects strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and solid net profit margin. The company has maintained a steady EBIT and EBITDA margin over the years, indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been declining, which could become a concern if the trend continues.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Old Dominion Freight shows a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial management. The company's return on equity remains strong, highlighting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is high, signifying a robust capital structure, although the pace of equity growth has moderated.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals healthy operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow growth has slowed, and substantial capital expenditures have impacted free cash flow ratios. The company remains capable of sustaining operations and investing in growth.78
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 5.73B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B | 4.02B | Gross Profit |
| 1.93B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B | 1.23B | EBIT |
| 1.50B | 1.54B | 1.64B | 1.84B | 1.39B | 906.88M | EBITDA |
| 1.85B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B | 1.17B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.15B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B | 672.68M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 97.20M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M | 731.70M | Total Assets |
| 5.49B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B | 4.37B | Total Debt |
| 59.99M | 59.99M | 200.38M | 99.96M | 99.96M | 99.95M | Net Debt |
| -37.21M | -48.69M | -233.42M | -86.35M | -362.62M | -301.50M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.26B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B | 1.04B | Stockholders Equity |
| 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B | 3.33B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 831.95M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M | 707.94M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.57B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B | 933.02M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -716.16M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M | -551.66M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.34B | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M | -383.50M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Negative
156.67
Price Trends
159.06
Negative
169.04
Negative
183.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Positive
42.65
Neutral
11.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 156.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.02, below the 50-day MA of 159.06, and below the 200-day MA of 183.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.59B | 9.15 | 14.25% | 0.69% | -5.69% | 51.78% | |
69 Neutral | $33.70B | 29.89 | 26.59% | 0.70% | -2.63% | -6.12% | |
68 Neutral | $7.07B | 21.88 | 14.63% | ― | 8.95% | -13.23% | |
66 Neutral | $4.49B | 12.22 | 5.40% | 3.71% | 4.17% | -11.97% | |
64 Neutral | $7.03B | 46.64 | 2.13% | 1.66% | 1.16% | 36.33% | |
63 Neutral | $4.26B | 34.32 | 4.20% | 1.56% | -0.30% | -20.76% | |
58 Neutral | $1.75B | 99.44 | 1.21% | 1.98% | -7.66% | -78.26% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
156.67
-16.96
-9.77%
KNX
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42.83
-3.89
-8.33%
SAIA
Saia
262.23
-198.01
-43.02%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
27.74
-7.14
-20.47%
ARCB
ArcBest
68.21
-38.40
-36.02%
SNDR
Schneider National
23.92
2.01
9.17%
Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Reports Revenue Decline for May 2025
Negative
Jun 4, 2025
On June 4, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 5.8% decrease in revenue per day for May 2025 compared to May 2024, attributed to an 8.4% drop in LTL tons per day. Despite this, LTL revenue per hundredweight increased, reflecting the company’s strong service metrics and yield management initiatives. President Marty Freeman noted that while the domestic economy remains soft, Old Dominion’s market share has remained stable, and the company is focused on executing its long-term strategic plan to enhance shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.
Shareholder MeetingsDividends
Old Dominion Freight Announces Increased Quarterly Dividend
Positive
May 22, 2025
On May 21, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line held its Annual Meeting where shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of twelve directors, approval of executive compensation, and the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan. The appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm was ratified, while a shareholder proposal on emission reduction targets was not approved. On May 22, 2025, the company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year, payable on June 18, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.