Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) AI Stock Analysis

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Old Dominion Freight

(NASDAQ:ODFL)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$164.00

▲(15.66% Upside)

Old Dominion Freight's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and robust cash flow, which are offset by technical indicators suggesting neutral momentum and a relatively high valuation. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call and recent corporate events further temper the score.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

High operational efficiency and service quality enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty, strengthening competitive advantage and market position.

Strong Financial Health

A strong balance sheet with low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, supporting long-term growth and investment capabilities.

Cash Flow Management

Robust cash flow supports ongoing operations and strategic investments, ensuring the company can sustain growth and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue indicates potential challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, which could impact long-term profitability and growth.

Increased Operating Costs

Rising operating costs can erode profit margins, reducing financial flexibility and potentially hindering future investment and expansion efforts.

Economic Challenges

Economic uncertainties and demand fluctuations pose risks to consistent revenue growth, impacting strategic planning and long-term financial performance.

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$30.53B

Dividend Yield0.78%

Average Volume (3M)1.78M

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.4

Beta (1Y)1.13

Revenue Growth-5.54%

EPS Growth-12.26%

CountryUS

Employees21,817

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryTrucking

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.27

Shares Outstanding210,168,140

10 Day Avg. Volume1,769,871

30 Day Avg. Volume1,783,259

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-12.08

Price to Book (P/B)8.95

Price to Sales (P/S)6.53

P/FCF Ratio42.78

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.13

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.33

Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.32

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$161.56

Price Target Upside13.94% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes MoneyOld Dominion Freight Line primarily generates revenue through its LTL freight services, which involve transporting smaller shipments that do not require a full truckload. The company charges customers based on the weight, dimensions, and distance of shipments, allowing for flexible pricing structures. Key revenue streams include base freight charges, accessorial charges for additional services, and volume discounts for larger customers. Additionally, ODFL benefits from operational efficiencies and cost control measures, which enhance profit margins. Strategic partnerships with various businesses and shippers also contribute to consistent revenue growth, as the company expands its customer base and service offerings.

Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Intercity Miles

Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.

Chart InsightsIntercity miles for Old Dominion Freight have been declining since mid-2022, reflecting a broader trend of reduced volumes as highlighted in the latest earnings call. Despite a 9.3% drop in LTL tons per day, the company has managed to maintain yield increases through pricing discipline. However, the persistent decrease in intercity miles and revenue signals ongoing challenges in a soft demand environment, which could impact future profitability if not countered by strategic cost management and investment in service performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with notable achievements in yield improvement and operational efficiency. However, these are offset by significant declines in revenue and volume, along with increased operational costs. The company remains optimistic about future demand improvements but faces current economic challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Improved Yield and Pricing Strategy

Despite a decrease in revenue due to lower volumes, Old Dominion improved its yields with a 3.4% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, demonstrating effective pricing strategy.

Operational Efficiency and Service Quality

Old Dominion maintained a 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%, highlighting their commitment to service excellence and operational efficiency.

Strong Cash Flow and Capital Management

The company reported cash flow from operations of $285.9 million for the second quarter and $622.4 million for the first six months of 2025, with significant investments in capital expenditures and share repurchases.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline and Volume Decrease

Revenue decreased by 6.1% from the prior year, with a 9.3% decrease in LTL tons per day and a 5.1% decline in July revenue per day compared to the previous year.

Increased Operating Ratio and Cost Pressures

The operating ratio increased by 270 basis points to 74.6% due to a deleveraging effect on operating expenses, with overhead costs as a percent of revenue rising significantly.

Economic and Demand Challenges

The prolonged challenging economic environment and uncertain demand have led to difficulties in achieving consistent revenue growth, impacting profitability.

Company Guidance

During the Old Dominion Freight Line Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided guidance reflecting the continued softness in the domestic economy, which resulted in a 6.1% decrease in revenue from the prior year to $1.41 billion. Despite the revenue decline, the company achieved a 3.4% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The operating ratio increased by 270 basis points to 74.6%, largely due to deleveraging effects from the revenue drop. Direct operating costs rose, driven by higher group health and dental plan expenses, while overhead costs increased by 160 basis points, with depreciation and miscellaneous expenses contributing. Cash flow from operations amounted to $285.9 million for the quarter, while capital expenditures totaled $187.2 million. The company repurchased $223.5 million in shares and paid $59.0 million in cash dividends. Moving forward, Old Dominion expects challenges with their operating ratio if revenue remains flat, projecting a potential increase of 80 to 120 basis points for the third quarter. The company remains optimistic about leveraging its investments and maintaining strong service levels, with a 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1% in the second quarter.

Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Old Dominion Freight demonstrates strong financial health with high profitability and efficient operations. Despite recent revenue growth decline, the company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage and strong equity. Cash flow remains robust, supporting ongoing operations and potential investments.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Old Dominion Freight's income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 33-36% and a net profit margin around 19-21%. However, recent revenue growth has been negative, indicating a potential slowdown in sales. Despite this, the company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating minimal leverage and strong financial stability. The return on equity remains high, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is solid, underscoring a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth, but the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.64B	5.81B	5.87B	6.26B	5.26B	4.02B
Gross Profit	1.89B	2.02B	2.07B	2.26B	1.78B	1.23B
EBITDA	1.79B	1.90B	1.97B	2.12B	1.65B	1.17B
Net Income	1.10B	1.19B	1.24B	1.38B	1.03B	672.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.55B	5.49B	5.51B	4.84B	4.82B	4.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.06M	108.68M	433.80M	235.67M	717.00M	731.70M
Total Debt	169.99M	59.99M	79.98M	99.96M	99.95M	99.93M
Total Liabilities	1.32B	1.25B	1.25B	1.19B	1.14B	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	4.23B	4.24B	4.26B	3.65B	3.68B	3.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	780.91M	887.97M	811.83M	916.43M	662.53M	707.94M
Operating Cash Flow	1.47B	1.66B	1.57B	1.69B	1.21B	933.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-636.54M	-751.19M	-659.82M	-547.47M	-455.29M	-551.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-883.61M	-1.23B	-661.83M	-1.42B	-696.18M	-383.50M

Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price141.79

Price Trends

50DMA

153.65

Negative

100DMA

157.50

Negative

200DMA

168.89

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-2.27

Positive

RSI

38.36

Neutral

STOCH

27.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 141.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.63, below the 50-day MA of 153.65, and below the 200-day MA of 168.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.

Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis

Old Dominion Freight disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ODFL	71 Outperform	$30.53B	28.37	26.25%	0.78%	-5.54%	-12.26%
SNDR	69 Neutral	4.08B	33.81	2.53%	1.63%	2.20%	7.86%
SAIA	69 Neutral	8.21B	28.47	11.90%	―	4.23%	-23.94%
KNX	67 Neutral	6.77B	41.93	2.31%	1.68%	-2.54%	144.49%
ARCB	66 Neutral	1.59B	10.89	12.17%	0.69%	-6.42%	25.72%
WERN	58 Neutral	1.65B	33.33	3.69%	2.03%	-6.43%	-13.76%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ODFL

Old Dominion Freight

141.79

-61.43

-30.23%

KNX

Knight Transportation

41.72

-10.76

-20.50%

SAIA

Saia

308.15

-145.68

-32.10%

WERN

Werner Enterprises

27.63

-9.40

-25.38%

ARCB

ArcBest

70.05

-45.10

-39.17%

SNDR

Schneider National

23.29

-4.94

-17.50%

Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Old Dominion Freight Reports August Revenue Decline

Negative

Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 4.8% decrease in revenue per day for August 2025 compared to the previous year, attributed to a 9.2% decline in LTL tons per day. Despite the volume decline, the company saw an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, reflecting its strong service value. President and CEO Marty Freeman highlighted the company’s capacity to handle increased volumes when demand improves, positioning Old Dominion to capture profitable market share and enhance shareholder value in the long term.

Dividends

Old Dominion Freight Increases Quarterly Dividend by 7.7%

Positive

Jul 24, 2025

On July 24, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, marking a 7.7% increase from the previous year. This dividend, payable on September 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 3, 2025, underscores the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and reflects its stable financial performance.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2025