Saia Inc (SAIA)
NASDAQ:SAIA
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Saia
(NASDAQ:SAIA)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$367.00
▲(9.78% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/04/26
Overall score is supported by a conservatively positioned balance sheet and an improving technical uptrend, alongside constructive 2026 guidance (OR improvement and expected FCF generation). Offsetting these positives are weaker cash conversion/free-cash-flow volatility, near-term operating and volume/tonnage pressures highlighted in the latest quarter, and a high P/E that leaves less room for execution missteps.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage and materially higher equity give Saia durable financial flexibility. That conservative capital structure supports continued network investment, selective M&A, and potential shareholder returns while reducing insolvency risk during freight cycles, improving resilience over months.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Wide swings in FCF despite stable operating cash flow reflect heavy recent capital spend and weak cash conversion. Persistent FCF volatility limits the firm's ability to consistently fund reinvestment, dividends, or repurchases without leaning on debt or pausing growth investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage and materially higher equity give Saia durable financial flexibility. That conservative capital structure supports continued network investment, selective M&A, and potential shareholder returns while reducing insolvency risk during freight cycles, improving resilience over months.
Read all positive factors
Saia (SAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)545.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.2
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth1.96%
EPS Growth-24.55%
CountryUS
Employees15,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.77
Shares Outstanding26,669,521
10 Day Avg. Volume572,297
30 Day Avg. Volume545,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.39
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio319.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$407.44Price Target Upside21.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)10.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.37B
Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset trucklo...
How the Company Makes Money
Saia makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated when shippers pay freight rates for moving palletized and packaged goods from origin to destination, with pri...
Saia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall tone of the call is constructive and forward-looking. Management emphasized multiple operating and quality records (quarterly and annual revenue records, cargo claims and safety improvements), successful national network rollout and profitability of ramping terminals, and substantial capital investments that position the company to scale. Key near-term challenges include Q4 operating ratio deterioration driven by higher self-insurance and other cost inflation, a meaningful EPS decline, and ongoing volume/tonnage and regional mix headwinds. Management expects these to be manageable, expects incremental operating leverage as volume and pricing recover, and provided guidance that implies potential OR improvement (100–200 basis points in a favorable macro). Given the number and magnitude of strategic and operational positives that management believes will drive medium-term returns, offsetting the notable but (management-characterized) partially one-time cost headwinds, the call reads as positive overall with caution around insurance and cost inflation risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q4 revenue reached a company quarterly record of $790,000,000, up 0.1% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Operating Ratio Deterioration
Q4 reported operating ratio rose to 91.9% versus 87.1% a year ago, driven by higher self-insurance and other expense items; full-year operating ratio deteriorated ~40 basis points to 89.1% (adjusted OR 89.6%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q4 revenue reached a company quarterly record of $790,000,000, up 0.1% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that, normalized for the one‑off Q4 self‑insurance reserve, Q1 seasonality historically degrades ~30–50 bps but they expect to outperform that and target full‑year operating‑ratio improvement of roughly 100–200 bps in 2026; CapEx is guided at $350–400M (largely maintenance fleet spend this year) after more than $2.0B invested over the past three years, and they expect to be free‑cash‑flow generative while balancing reinvestment, selective M&A and potential shareholder returns. Key metrics cited: Q4 revenue $790M (+0.1% YoY) with rev/ship ex‑fuel $297.57 (−0.5% YoY), fuel 15% of revenue (+6.1%), Q4 OR 91.9% (tax rate 22%, diluted EPS $1.77), FY 2025 revenue +0.8%, operating income $352.2M (adjusted $337.7M), FY OR 89.1% (adjusted 89.6%); monthly trends Oct shipments/day −3.4% (tonnage −3.3%), Nov +2.6%/+1.8%, Dec +0.6%/−2.2%, Jan −2.1%/−7% (ex‑weather Jan shipments slightly positive, tonnage down ~4–4.5%). Operational and balance‑sheet context: cargo claims 0.47% in Q4 (0.5% FY record), preventable frequency −21% YoY, lost‑time injuries −10% YoY, internal miles +2.4% YoY, PT miles 12.1% of total (vs >18% in 2021), ~39 terminals opened since 2022 (21 opened in 2024 drove ~80 bps market‑share gain), estimated excess capacity broadly ~20–25% (new markets up to ~50%), typical terminal maturity ~3 years, and management said incremental margins on a volume inflection could be in the ~30–40%+ range.Saia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.23B | 3.21B | 2.88B | 2.79B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 765.19M | 644.41M | 598.93M | 590.96M | 451.69M |
| EBITDA | 602.41M | 695.04M | 647.61M | 627.86M | 477.69M |
| Net Income | 255.04M | 362.06M | 354.86M | 357.42M | 253.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.48B | 3.17B | 2.58B | 2.17B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.72M | 19.47M | 296.21M | 187.39M | 106.59M |
| Total Debt | 418.11M | 324.46M | 138.71M | 154.51M | 160.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 904.98M | 855.59M | 642.07M | 595.37M | 624.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.58B | 2.31B | 1.94B | 1.58B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.33M | -459.86M | 138.07M | 105.60M | 96.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 594.97M | 583.70M | 577.95M | 473.03M | 382.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -552.52M | -1.04B | -448.70M | -365.51M | -277.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.20M | 175.42M | -20.42M | -26.71M | -23.46M |
Saia Technical Analysis
Neutral
334.31
Price Trends
366.92
Negative
339.73
Negative
317.95
Positive
Market Momentum
-13.14
Positive
43.69
Neutral
76.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 334.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 353.05, below the 50-day MA of 366.92, and above the 200-day MA of 317.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SAIA.
Saia Risk Analysis
Saia disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Saia reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Saia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $8.92B | 34.23 | 10.30% | ― | 1.96% | -24.55% | |
66 Neutral | $4.46B | 44.87 | 3.44% | 1.40% | 5.46% | 2.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $9.02B | 128.70 | 0.93% | 1.34% | >-0.01% | 279.47% | |
56 Neutral | $2.06B | -51.41 | 4.61% | 0.62% | -5.34% | -48.16% | |
54 Neutral | $1.05B | 53.18 | 2.27% | 2.07% | -9.74% | -42.57% | |
49 Neutral | $1.71B | -126.32 | 1.78% | 1.84% | -3.42% | -43.86% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SAIA
Saia
334.31
-24.69
-6.88%
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Saia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Mixed Early 2026 LTL Operating Trends
Negative
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Saia reported operating data for January and February 2026 showing mixed trends in its less-than-truckload business versus a year earlier. January saw LTL shipments per workday fall 2.1%, tonnage per workday drop 7.0% and weight ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Highlights 2025 Results and National LTL Expansion
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Saia reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 performance on a Feb. 10, 2026 earnings call, highlighting that 2025 marked its first full year operating a national LTL network and underscoring record capital investments of more than $2 billio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.