Saia (SAIA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.99B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 979.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 8.95%
• EPS Growth: -13.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,300
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 11.98
• Shares Outstanding: 26,634,005
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,523,226
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 979,315
• PEG Ratio: 10.01
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $302.82
• Price Target Upside: 15.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Saia's strong financial performance, highlighted by robust income growth and a stable balance sheet, is somewhat offset by cash flow challenges and bearish technical indicators. The moderately high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. Despite strategic achievements, operational and weather-related challenges in recent earnings calls and corporate events indicate areas for improvement.

Positive Factors

Industry Growth Potential

There is still a secular opportunity for growth in the LTL industry, and the service levels and value proposition remain strong.

Long-term Outlook

Analyst believes the model or industry is not broken in a way that shifts the long-term fundamental outlook for the company or the stock.

Operational Improvements

Management is taking steps to right-size the cost base, which should help achieve operational ratio guidance.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Saia reported a shockingly bad quarter, missing estimates by over 30% and providing commentary on April trends that led to significant downward earnings revisions, driving the stock 30% lower and returning the P/E to pre-COVID levels.

Market Competition

Shippers have moved business to lower-priced competitors, impacting Saia's market share and yield growth.

Revenue and Cost Challenges

The lower revenue and higher total operating expenses caused the operating ratio to increase to 91.1% compared to 84.4% last year and the 87.7% estimate.

Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2006. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Saia generates revenue primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping services, which involve the transportation of freight that does not require a full truckload, allowing multiple customers' shipments to be consolidated. This model optimizes load capacity and minimizes transportation costs for customers. Saia's strategic network of terminals and hubs facilitates efficient routing and delivery, enhancing service reliability. Additional revenue streams include value-added services such as expedited shipping, warehousing, and brokerage services through partnerships with other logistics providers. Saia's focus on operational efficiency, customer service, and strategic expansion into new markets further supports its revenue growth.

Saia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Saia exhibits strong financial performance with healthy revenue and profit margins, robust ROE, and a stable capital structure. However, the negative free cash flow highlights potential liquidity challenges.

Income Statement

Saia's income statement shows strong financial performance with a consistent growth trajectory. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at approximately 36.3%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is healthy at 9.9%, demonstrating profitability. Revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is robust at 11.4%, and the EBIT margin is solid at 13.4%. While the EBITDA margin is strong at 20.2%, the slight decrease in EBIT from 2024 to TTM suggests some operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Saia's balance sheet reflects financial stability with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 in TTM, demonstrating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 13.6%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is robust at 70.2%, showing a strong capital structure. However, the decline in cash and short-term investments over the period could pose liquidity risks.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is excellent at 1.83, indicating strong cash generation. However, the free cash flow has turned negative in TTM, primarily due to high capital expenditures, which may pressure future liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning at -0.0003, suggesting a need for improved cash flow management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.21B	2.88B	2.79B	2.29B	1.82B
	Gross Profit
644.41M	598.93M	590.96M	451.69M	283.85M
	EBIT
482.16M	460.50M	313.46M	190.39M	44.27M
	EBITDA
695.04M	647.61M	627.74M	472.95M	312.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
362.06M	354.86M	357.42M	253.24M	138.34M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
19.47M	296.21M	187.39M	106.59M	25.31M
	Total Assets
3.17B	2.58B	2.17B	1.85B	1.55B
	Total Debt
129.48M	138.71M	154.51M	160.38M	186.51M
	Net Debt
110.01M	-157.51M	-32.88M	53.79M	161.20M
	Total Liabilities
855.59M	642.07M	595.37M	624.92M	587.49M
	Stockholders Equity
2.31B	1.94B	1.58B	1.22B	961.29M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
583.70M	138.07M	105.60M	96.85M	78.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
583.70M	577.95M	473.03M	382.59M	309.14M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.04B	-448.70M	-365.51M	-277.85M	-218.82M
	Financing Cash Flow
175.42M	-20.42M	-26.71M	-23.46M	-65.27M

Saia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 262.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 262.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 308.57, below the 50-day MA of 348.14, and below the 200-day MA of 434.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -31.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAIA.

Saia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAIA	71 Outperform	$6.99B	21.89	14.63%	―	8.95%	-13.23%
ODFL	70 Outperform	$33.52B	29.64	26.59%	0.67%	-2.63%	-6.12%
ARCB	68 Neutral	$1.44B	8.20	14.25%	0.77%	-5.69%	51.78%
KNX	64 Neutral	$6.46B	54.98	2.13%	1.59%	1.16%	36.33%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.28B	11.80	5.33%	250.46%	4.10%	-9.26%
SNDR	64 Neutral	$3.99B	34.23	4.20%	1.67%	-0.30%	-20.76%
WERN	50 Neutral	$1.61B	91.34	1.21%	2.15%	-7.66%	―

Saia Corporate Events

Saia Reports Q1 2025 Earnings with Revenue Growth

Saia, Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 earnings, highlighting a 4.3% increase in revenue to $787.6 million, driven by growth in newer markets and ramping terminals. Despite achieving record revenue, the company faced challenges from adverse weather conditions and a muted macroeconomic environment, which impacted their operating ratio, deteriorating it to 91.1% from 84.4% the previous year. The company remains focused on improving service levels and managing costs to maintain its position as a trusted carrier.

Spark’s Take on SAIA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SAIA is a Neutral.

Saia’s overall stock score reflects strong financial fundamentals and strategic growth initiatives, offset by technical bearish momentum and liquidity concerns. Key strengths include robust revenue growth and a stable capital structure, while challenges include negative free cash flow and increased operating expenses.

To see Spark’s full report on SAIA stock, click here.

Saia Achieves Record Revenues in Centennial Year

In 2024, Saia marked its 100th year with significant achievements, including record revenues exceeding $3 billion and the opening of 21 new terminals, expanding its national footprint. The company’s fourth quarter revenue of $789 million set a new record, despite a slight decline in yield due to increased shipment weights. Saia’s investment strategy focused on long-term growth, with substantial capital directed towards real estate, equipment, and workforce expansion. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Saia’s strategic initiatives in pricing and mix optimization have positively impacted their operations, although these efforts contributed to a higher operating ratio of 87.1% for the quarter. The results underscore the company’s commitment to enhancing customer service and operational efficiency, with over 1,300 new employees onboarded to support its growth initiatives.