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Saia Inc (SAIA)
NASDAQ:SAIA
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Saia
(NASDAQ:SAIA)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$444.00
▲(8.88% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/04/26
Overall score is supported by a conservatively positioned balance sheet and an improving technical uptrend, alongside constructive 2026 guidance (OR improvement and expected FCF generation). Offsetting these positives are weaker cash conversion/free-cash-flow volatility, near-term operating and volume/tonnage pressures highlighted in the latest quarter, and a high P/E that leaves less room for execution missteps.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage and materially higher equity provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued network investment, selective M&A, and potential shareholder returns while insulating operations through freight cycles and giving management room to absorb temporary earnings volatility without forcing asset sales.
National Network Expansion
Rapid terminal rollout broadens market coverage and increases density, improving utilization and yield over time. Profitable ramping terminals and estimated ~30–40%+ incremental margins on volume inflections indicate scalable economics as network matures and drives sustainable revenue growth and share gains.
Operational & Service Quality Gains
Improved safety, lower cargo claims, and reduced purchased-transportation reliance reflect stronger operational execution. Those structural gains cut claims and outsourcing costs, enhance reliability for customers, and support higher long-term margins and contract retention as the network scales.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Highly variable free cash flow limits the company's ability to consistently fund growth, buybacks, or absorb shocks. Heavy recent investments (>$2B over three years) and material annual maintenance CapEx mean cash conversion risk could constrain capital allocation and increase sensitivity to operating setbacks.
Insurance & Expense Inflation
Rising self-insurance reserves and settlement inflation are structural cost pressures that can persist and erode margin if trends continue. Higher insurance and legal outlays reduce operating leverage from volume recovery and force higher pricing or cost cuts to restore historical profitability.
Demand Density & Regional Mix Weakness
Sustained declines in tonnage and lighter loads reduce revenue per shipment and weaken incremental economics. Regional softness—especially in high-yield markets—can disproportionately hit yields and delay network breakevens for newer terminals, pressuring margins until density recovers.
Saia (SAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)542.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.8
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth1.96%
EPS Growth-24.55%
CountryUS
Employees15,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.77
Shares Outstanding26,669,521
10 Day Avg. Volume395,537
30 Day Avg. Volume542,684
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.39
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio319.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$405.69Price Target Upside-0.52% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)10.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.37B
Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSaia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2006. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneySaia generates revenue primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) services, which involve transporting smaller freight shipments that do not require a full truckload. This model allows Saia to efficiently consolidate shipments from multiple customers, maximizing truck utilization and minimizing costs. Key revenue streams include freight charges from LTL shipments, accessorial services such as liftgate deliveries and residential services, and specialized services for time-sensitive deliveries. Additionally, Saia benefits from long-term relationships with various industries, including retail, manufacturing, and e-commerce, which provide a steady stream of business. Strategic partnerships with other logistics providers and technology investments that enhance operational efficiency also contribute to the company's profitability.
Saia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall tone of the call is constructive and forward-looking. Management emphasized multiple operating and quality records (quarterly and annual revenue records, cargo claims and safety improvements), successful national network rollout and profitability of ramping terminals, and substantial capital investments that position the company to scale. Key near-term challenges include Q4 operating ratio deterioration driven by higher self-insurance and other cost inflation, a meaningful EPS decline, and ongoing volume/tonnage and regional mix headwinds. Management expects these to be manageable, expects incremental operating leverage as volume and pricing recover, and provided guidance that implies potential OR improvement (100–200 basis points in a favorable macro). Given the number and magnitude of strategic and operational positives that management believes will drive medium-term returns, offsetting the notable but (management-characterized) partially one-time cost headwinds, the call reads as positive overall with caution around insurance and cost inflation risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q4 revenue reached a company quarterly record of $790,000,000, up 0.1% year-over-year.
Record Full-Year Revenue and Operating Income
Full-year 2025 revenue was a company record, increasing 0.8% versus 2024; operating income was $352,200,000 (adjusted operating income $337,700,000 after one-time real estate items).
Safety and Quality Improvements
Preventable accident frequency declined 21% year-over-year and lost time injuries declined 10% year-over-year, driven by investments in training and safety technology.
Best-In-Class Cargo Claims Performance
Cargo claims ratio hit a company record of 0.47% in Q4 (0.5% for full-year 2025), improving year-over-year in every quarter.
Network Expansion and Ramping Terminal Progress
Completed first full year as a national network; opened 39 terminals since 2022 with ramping terminals operating profitably in aggregate; 21 terminals opened in 2024 estimated to have increased revenue market share by ~80 basis points in 2025.
Major Capital Investments and Optimization
More than $2,000,000,000 invested over the last three years in real estate, revenue equipment and technology; network optimization efforts drove handling metrics to exit the year 1.5% below the first-quarter peak and reduced purchased transportation miles to 12.1% (from >18% in 2021).
Pricing and Contract Renewal Momentum
GRI/customer acceptance slightly above historic levels; contractual renewals averaged 4.9% of book in Q4 with a 6.6% contractual renewal increase in January 2026; sequential revenue per shipment excluding fuel rose 1.1% from Q3 to Q4.
Improved Balance Sheet and Expected Cash Generation
Total debt outstanding fell to approximately $164,000,000 at year-end 2025 (down from $200,000,000 at end of 2024); company expects to be free-cash-flow generative in 2026 with CapEx guidance of $350,000,000 to $400,000,000.
Negative Updates
Q4 Operating Ratio Deterioration
Q4 reported operating ratio rose to 91.9% versus 87.1% a year ago, driven by higher self-insurance and other expense items; full-year operating ratio deteriorated ~40 basis points to 89.1% (adjusted OR 89.6%).
Significant EPS Decline
Diluted EPS in Q4 were $1.77 versus $2.84 a year ago, a decrease of approximately 37.7% year-over-year.
Rising Cost Per Shipment and Labor Costs
Cost per shipment increased 6.1% year-over-year in Q4; salaries, wages, and benefits increased 6.1% (including a company-wide ~3% wage increase effective Oct 1) and group health inflation contributed materially to the cost-per-shipment increase.
Depreciation and Other Expense Inflation
Depreciation and amortization rose 16.4% year-over-year to $62,900,000 in Q4, reflecting heavy recent investments in equipment and real estate.
Self-Insurance / Reserve Adverse Development
Unexpected reserve increases related to adverse development on prior-year accidents added approximately $4,700,000 to Q4 self-insurance expense; management noted rising litigation and settlement costs make self-insurance inflationary.
Volume and Tonnage Pressure
Shipments per day declined 0.5% year-over-year in Q4 and tonnage per day declined 1.5% year-over-year; January 2026 tonnage per day was down 7.0% (down ~4.0–4.5% ex-weather).
Regional Mix Headwinds (Southern California)
Southern California volumes were down ~18% year-over-year in Q4, a region with typically higher revenue per bill, causing an estimated ~$4,000,000 revenue reduction for the quarter and contributing to mix pressure.
Revenue Per Shipment Excluding Fuel Slightly Lower Year-over-Year
Revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge decreased 0.5% year-over-year (to $297.57 from $299.17), reflecting mix and weight-per-shipment pressures even as sequential capture improved.
Company Guidance
Management guided that, normalized for the one‑off Q4 self‑insurance reserve, Q1 seasonality historically degrades ~30–50 bps but they expect to outperform that and target full‑year operating‑ratio improvement of roughly 100–200 bps in 2026; CapEx is guided at $350–400M (largely maintenance fleet spend this year) after more than $2.0B invested over the past three years, and they expect to be free‑cash‑flow generative while balancing reinvestment, selective M&A and potential shareholder returns. Key metrics cited: Q4 revenue $790M (+0.1% YoY) with rev/ship ex‑fuel $297.57 (−0.5% YoY), fuel 15% of revenue (+6.1%), Q4 OR 91.9% (tax rate 22%, diluted EPS $1.77), FY 2025 revenue +0.8%, operating income $352.2M (adjusted $337.7M), FY OR 89.1% (adjusted 89.6%); monthly trends Oct shipments/day −3.4% (tonnage −3.3%), Nov +2.6%/+1.8%, Dec +0.6%/−2.2%, Jan −2.1%/−7% (ex‑weather Jan shipments slightly positive, tonnage down ~4–4.5%). Operational and balance‑sheet context: cargo claims 0.47% in Q4 (0.5% FY record), preventable frequency −21% YoY, lost‑time injuries −10% YoY, internal miles +2.4% YoY, PT miles 12.1% of total (vs >18% in 2021), ~39 terminals opened since 2022 (21 opened in 2024 drove ~80 bps market‑share gain), estimated excess capacity broadly ~20–25% (new markets up to ~50%), typical terminal maturity ~3 years, and management said incremental margins on a volume inflection could be in the ~30–40%+ range.Saia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong balance sheet with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.06) and meaningful equity growth supports resilience. Revenue has grown steadily long-term, but 2025 profit dollars stepped down versus 2024, and free cash flow has been inconsistent (notably sharply negative in 2024 and only modestly positive in 2025), which weighs on the score.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (annual growth ranging from ~2% to ~26%), showing a solid long-term trajectory. Profitability was strong in 2021–2024 with net margins around ~11%–13% and healthy operating profitability, but 2025 annual data shows a meaningful step-down in profit dollars versus 2024 (net income down from ~$362M to ~$255M) and margins are not available for 2025, which reduces visibility into the magnitude of the slowdown.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned: leverage is low across the period, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.06 in 2025 (from ~0.14 in 2024) and equity expanding materially over time (~$0.96B in 2020 to ~$2.58B in 2025). Return on equity was strong in 2021–2024 (~16%–23%), supporting high-quality earnings generation, though 2025 return on equity is not available, limiting the latest-period profitability read-through.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is consistently strong and relatively stable (roughly ~$309M in 2020 rising to about ~$595M in 2025), indicating good cash earnings power. However, free cash flow is volatile and turned sharply negative in 2024 (about -$460M) and was only modestly positive in 2025 (~$27M), suggesting heavy investment/capital spending and weaker near-term cash conversion versus profits.54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.23B | 3.21B | 2.88B | 2.79B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 765.19M | 644.41M | 598.93M | 590.96M | 451.69M |
| EBITDA | 602.41M | 695.04M | 647.61M | 627.86M | 477.69M |
| Net Income | 255.04M | 362.06M | 354.86M | 357.42M | 253.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.48B | 3.17B | 2.58B | 2.17B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.72M | 19.47M | 296.21M | 187.39M | 106.59M |
| Total Debt | 418.11M | 324.46M | 138.71M | 154.51M | 160.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 904.98M | 855.59M | 642.07M | 595.37M | 624.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.58B | 2.31B | 1.94B | 1.58B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.33M | -459.86M | 138.07M | 105.60M | 96.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 594.97M | 583.70M | 577.95M | 473.03M | 382.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -552.52M | -1.04B | -448.70M | -365.51M | -277.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.20M | 175.42M | -20.42M | -26.71M | -23.46M |
Saia Technical Analysis
Positive
407.79
Price Trends
365.10
Positive
331.20
Positive
310.96
Positive
Market Momentum
11.45
Positive
59.61
Neutral
73.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 407.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 394.77, above the 50-day MA of 365.10, and above the 200-day MA of 310.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAIA.
Saia Risk Analysis
Saia disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Saia reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Saia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $10.88B | 42.83 | 10.43% | ― | 1.96% | -24.55% | |
66 Neutral | $4.94B | 48.18 | 3.45% | 1.40% | 5.46% | 2.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $10.11B | 155.17 | 0.93% | 1.34% | >-0.01% | 279.47% | |
56 Neutral | $2.38B | 39.17 | 4.61% | 0.62% | -5.34% | -48.16% | |
54 Neutral | $1.10B | 63.50 | 2.53% | 2.07% | -9.74% | -42.57% | |
49 Neutral | $2.07B | -139.01 | 1.78% | 1.84% | -3.42% | -43.86% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SAIA
Saia
407.79
10.65
2.68%
KNX
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62.25
15.10
32.03%
MRTN
Marten Transport
13.51
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WERN
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34.60
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13.33%
ARCB
ArcBest
106.55
32.86
44.60%
SNDR
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28.16
3.17
12.69%
Saia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Mixed Early 2026 LTL Operating Trends
Negative
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Saia reported operating data for January and February 2026 showing mixed trends in its less-than-truckload business versus a year earlier. January saw LTL shipments per workday fall 2.1%, tonnage per workday drop 7.0% and weight per shipment decline 5.1% compared with January 2025, underscoring softer freight density early in the quarter.
In February 2026, LTL shipments per workday edged up 0.3% while tonnage per workday was still down 2.7% and weight per shipment decreased 3.0% from February 2025, pointing to modest volume improvement but lighter loads. For the quarter to date, shipments per workday were down 0.9% and tonnage per workday fell 4.8%, though Saia highlighted solid pricing power with contractual renewals of 6.6% in January and 5.9% in February, a supportive sign for revenue quality despite softer tonnage.
The most recent analyst rating on (SAIA) stock is a Buy with a $500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saia stock, see the SAIA Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Highlights 2025 Results and National LTL Expansion
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Saia reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 performance on a Feb. 10, 2026 earnings call, highlighting that 2025 marked its first full year operating a national LTL network and underscoring record capital investments of more than $2 billion over the past three years to expand its footprint. Management said the broader reach has enabled increased market share gains, stronger ties with legacy accounts and access to new customers, even as a muted freight environment and regional softness, particularly an 18% volume decline in Southern California, pressured mix and revenue per shipment.
Fourth quarter 2025 revenue edged up 0.1% year on year to a record $790 million for any fourth quarter, with tonnage down 1.5% and shipments per day down 0.5%, while fuel surcharge revenue increased and yield including fuel rose 1.6%. Profitability was hurt by higher self-insurance costs, including about $4.7 million of reserve increases tied to prior-year accidents, pushing the operating ratio to 91.9%, but the company pointed to improving safety metrics, including a 21% reduction in preventable accident frequency and a record-low cargo claims ratio, as evidence that recent investments in safety and operations are enhancing service quality and long-term competitive positioning.
The most recent analyst rating on (SAIA) stock is a Hold with a $415.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saia stock, see the SAIA Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.