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CSX (CSX)
NASDAQ:CSX

CSX (CSX) AI Stock Analysis

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CS

CSX

(NASDAQ:CSX)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(5.49%Upside)
CSX demonstrates strong financial health and profitability, supported by efficient cash flow management. However, the company faces challenges with revenue growth and operational issues highlighted in the latest earnings call, which negatively impact sentiment. The stock shows mixed technical signals with some bullish momentum but overbought conditions, and its valuation appears fair with a moderate P/E ratio. Overall, CSX is a stable performer but needs to address growth and operational hurdles to enhance its stock potential.
Positive Factors
Industrial Development
Longer-term initiatives with a strong industrial development pipeline should provide long-term benefits for CSX.
Regulatory Environment
Regulatory environment should ultimately be a tailwind for the group.
Union Agreement
CSX and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen agreed to a new 5-year tentative agreement covering approximately 3,400 locomotive engineers.
Negative Factors
Earnings Miss
CSX reported a headline 7% earnings miss as weather, mix, and service challenges from network outages negatively impacted the quarter.
Network Disruptions
Severe weather and infrastructure projects led to network disruptions, resulting in higher operating expenses and reduced network fluidity.
Operational Challenges
CSX faced a tough first quarter, with severe winter weather, flooding, and yard congestion disrupting operations—compounded by infrastructure projects.

CSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCSX Corporation is a leading transportation company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing rail-based freight transportation services. It operates an extensive rail network across the eastern United States, facilitating the movement of a wide range of goods, including chemicals, agricultural products, automotive, minerals, and consumer goods. In addition to rail freight services, CSX offers intermodal transportation solutions, integrating truck and rail services for efficient, multimodal shipping.
How the Company Makes MoneyCSX Corporation generates revenue primarily through its rail transportation services, which account for the bulk of its income. The company charges customers for moving various types of freight over its rail network, with pricing influenced by factors such as distance, weight, and type of cargo. Key revenue streams include the transportation of merchandise, which covers diverse commodities like chemicals, agricultural products, and automotive parts, as well as the coal sector, which involves the shipment of coal from mining regions to power plants and ports. Additionally, CSX earns money through its intermodal segment by offering integrated truck and rail transportation solutions, providing customers with flexible and efficient shipping options. Strategic partnerships with logistics companies and port operators further enhance CSX's service offerings and market reach, contributing to its earnings.

CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Chart InsightsCSX's revenue from the Merchandise segment shows resilience with steady growth, while Coal revenue faces significant pressure due to lower export prices and operational challenges, as highlighted in the earnings call. Intermodal revenue benefits from increased port traffic, aligning with the reported 2% volume growth. However, overall revenue is down 7% year-over-year, impacted by reduced fuel surcharges and network inefficiencies. Despite these challenges, CSX is optimistic about volume growth and new business opportunities, supported by safety improvements and the launch of new facilities.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

CSX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 18.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with several operational challenges and a decline in key financial metrics. Despite these issues, there were positive signs in intermodal volume growth, safety improvements, and new business opportunities. However, the significant decline in revenue and earnings, along with the operational hurdles, weigh heavily on the sentiment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Intermodal Volume Growth
Intermodal volumes increased by 2% in the first quarter due to an uptick in port traffic, despite an overall volume decline of 1% compared to last year.
Record Performance by Automotive Terminal Team
CSX Corporation's TDSI automotive terminal team set a record with four terminals winning the auto industry's premier awards for origin and destination operations.
Safety Improvements
The first quarter saw a third straight sequential decline in FRA injury rate, which also brought a year-over-year decrease, indicating positive results from the Safe CSX program.
New Facilities and Growth Opportunities
24 new facilities went live on the network in the first quarter, contributing to a positive outlook on growth. Up to 50 additional facilities are scheduled to start service over the next nine months.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Earnings Decline
Total revenue was $3.4 billion for the quarter, down 7% from the same period last year. Earnings per share decreased by 24%, reflecting reduced revenues and challenged network performance.
Operational Challenges
Severe weather, congestion, and major infrastructure projects led to operational challenges, resulting in inefficiencies and increased expenses.
Coal Revenue Decline
Coal revenue declined 27% on 9% lower volume due to lower export prices and operational challenges. Coal RPU declined 20% year over year.
Missed Market Opportunities
Operational disruptions led to missed opportunities in some key markets, particularly in the unit train side of the business.
Company Guidance
During the CSX Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics. Total volume decreased by 1% year-over-year, although intermodal volumes increased by 2%, driven by an uptick in port traffic. The company's total revenue for the quarter was $3.4 billion, representing a 7% decline compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the effects of lower benchmark coal prices and reduced fuel surcharges. Earnings per share decreased by 24%, reflecting the impact of reduced revenues and network performance challenges. Operational performance was impacted by severe weather and infrastructure projects, resulting in increased cars online and congestion. Safety metrics showed improvement, with a decline in the FRA injury rate and train accident rate. Looking forward, CSX expects overall volume growth for the full year, despite uncertainties related to changing trade policies, with a focus on improving network fluidity and customer service.

CSX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CSX displays solid financial health with strong profitability and efficient cash flow management. While the company has maintained a stable balance sheet and high returns on equity, addressing revenue growth could enhance future performance.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
CSX has maintained strong profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 35.3% and EBIT Margin of 34.5% in TTM. The Net Profit Margin is also robust at 22.7%. However, there's a slight decline in revenue over the past year, indicating a need to address top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company exhibits a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.09, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The Return on Equity is impressive at 26.6%, indicating efficient equity utilization. However, the Equity Ratio of 28.2% shows limited asset funding through equity, which could be a concern if liabilities rise.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
CSX demonstrates strong cash flow management with a high Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.67 and a positive Free Cash Flow of $2.69 billion in TTM. The company's ability to convert net income into cash effectively supports its financial health.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
14.28B14.54B14.66B14.85B12.52B10.58B
Gross Profit
5.04B5.34B5.67B5.79B5.14B4.36B
EBIT
4.93B5.25B5.56B6.02B5.59B4.36B
EBITDA
6.72B7.07B7.34B7.39B6.65B5.76B
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.24B3.47B3.71B4.17B3.78B2.77B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.99B1.00B1.44B2.09B2.32B3.13B
Total Assets
37.44B42.76B42.41B41.91B40.53B39.79B
Total Debt
13.79B18.99B19.09B18.05B16.37B16.70B
Net Debt
11.81B18.06B17.74B16.09B14.13B13.58B
Total Liabilities
23.05B30.26B30.27B29.29B27.03B26.68B
Stockholders Equity
14.39B12.50B12.13B12.63B13.50B13.11B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.69B2.72B3.27B3.49B3.31B2.64B
Operating Cash Flow
5.42B5.25B5.55B5.62B5.10B4.26B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.75B-2.60B-2.29B-2.13B-1.88B-649.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-3.01B-3.06B-3.87B-3.77B-4.11B-1.44B

CSX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.23
Price Trends
50DMA
29.26
Positive
100DMA
30.45
Positive
200DMA
32.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.76
Negative
RSI
68.99
Neutral
STOCH
89.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.03, above the 50-day MA of 29.26, and above the 200-day MA of 32.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.

CSX Risk Analysis

CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CSX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NSNSC
78
Outperform
$55.67B16.8624.52%2.19%0.70%135.08%
FDFDX
76
Outperform
$52.45B13.6114.74%2.55%0.34%-8.45%
CSCSX
73
Outperform
$59.63B18.9126.13%1.57%-2.39%-7.80%
UPUPS
73
Outperform
$83.45B14.1335.96%6.75%1.30%-0.76%
67
Neutral
$13.90B25.2613.97%1.25%-3.82%-12.80%
67
Neutral
$33.74B29.9326.59%0.66%-2.63%-6.12%
66
Neutral
$4.48B12.265.32%248.53%4.10%-12.36%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSX
CSX
32.23
-0.21
-0.65%
FDX
FedEx
219.61
-28.91
-11.63%
JBHT
JB Hunt
140.21
-20.08
-12.53%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
250.77
29.30
13.23%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
160.33
-9.79
-5.75%
UPS
United Parcel
98.25
-32.01
-24.57%

CSX Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CSX Elects Board and Approves Executive Compensation
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 7, 2025, CSX Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where twelve directors were elected to the board. Additionally, shareholders ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved, on a non-binding basis, the compensation of CSX’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSX) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CSX stock, see the CSX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.