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CSX
(NASDAQ:CSX)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$56.00
â–²(5.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
CSX scores well on strong profitability and improving cash generation, reinforced by raised 2026 guidance and strong Q2 execution. Technicals also support a positive trend. The main constraint on the overall score is valuation (high P/E and modest yield), alongside balance-sheet leverage and margin/return compression versus 2021–2022 highs.
Positive Factors
Cash generation strength
CSX’s material free cash flow rebound and strong operating cash flow reflect durable cash conversion and flexibility. Higher FCF supports sustained capital returns, buybacks and targeted reinvestment while enabling resilience through cycles; volatility remains a watch item but the trend improves strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Consistently elevated debt relative to equity constrains financial flexibility in this cyclical capital-intensive industry. Higher leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, limits the company’s ability to accelerate discretionary investments or absorb shocks, and makes returns more sensitive to earnings volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation strength
CSX’s material free cash flow rebound and strong operating cash flow reflect durable cash conversion and flexibility. Higher FCF supports sustained capital returns, buybacks and targeted reinvestment while enabling resilience through cycles; volatility remains a watch item but the trend improves strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$95.96B
Dividend Yield1.06%
Average Volume (3M)12.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.4
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth2.52%
EPS Growth6.32%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.73
Shares Outstanding1,852,475,000
10 Day Avg. Volume14,824,520
30 Day Avg. Volume12,732,678
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.69
Price to Book (P/B)5.13
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio39.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.79Price Target Upside-0.83% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.03B
CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and t...
How the Company Makes Money
CSX primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight by rail. Revenue is generated across major freight categories that typically include: (1) merchandise/industrial shipments (e.g., chemicals, agricultural products, minerals, fore...
CSX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and financial progress: record revenue, double-digit EPS growth, margin expansion and raised guidance. Management highlighted meaningful safety and productivity gains, intermodal momentum, and continued cost discipline. At the same time, they acknowledged service fluidity issues in specific locations driven by seasonal crew availability, notable fuel cost headwinds and some market-specific moderation risks (automotive, plastics). Management presented concrete actions (modest hiring, commercial/pricing focus, process improvements) and expects sequential service improvement. Overall the positives (record results, improved guidance, productivity and safety gains) outweigh the addressable challenges described.Positive Updates
Healthy Volume and Revenue Growth
Total volume rose 6% year-over-year and total revenue increased 10%, reaching a new quarterly record.
Negative Updates
Service and Network Fluidity Challenges
Certain service metrics (Terminal, Dwell and Trip Plan performance) deteriorated: Dwell increased despite average velocity improving 3% year-over-year. Management cited seasonal reductions in employee availability and tightness in specific network locations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Healthy Volume and Revenue Growth
Total volume rose 6% year-over-year and total revenue increased 10%, reaching a new quarterly record.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CSX raised its 2026 outlook, now expecting full‑year revenue growth in the mid‑ to high‑single digits, operating margin expansion of greater than 350 basis points and free cash flow growth of greater than 80%, with capital spending unchanged at less than $2.4 billion. The upgrade reflects strong year‑to‑date results and Q2 performance: volume +6%, revenue +10% (a new quarterly record), operating income +17%, EPS +23% and a Q2 margin improvement of ~240 bps despite ~160 bps of fuel headwinds. Q2 also showed total expenses +6% with non‑fuel expenses down ~2%, fuel expense up ~$177M, labor up ~$40M offset in part by ~6% lower headcount, intermodal terminal cost per lift down 12%, FRA injury rate improved 19% and train/accident rate improved 30%; velocity was +3% y/y while dwell increased. Management expects sequential service and network fluidity improvement, modest T&E headcount additions, a sequential decline in incentive compensation largely offset by a 3.75% union wage increase, and higher second‑half locomotive overhaul costs with fewer property gains and insurance recoveries.CSX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.51B | 14.09B | 14.54B | 14.66B | 14.85B | 12.52B |
| Gross Profit | 7.96B | 4.68B | 5.51B | 5.60B | 5.72B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 6.70B | 5.87B | 7.07B | 7.27B | 7.59B | 7.09B |
| Net Income | 3.22B | 2.89B | 3.47B | 3.67B | 4.11B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 44.73B | 43.68B | 42.76B | 42.21B | 41.91B | 40.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.39B | 675.00M | 1.00B | 1.44B | 2.09B | 2.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.36B | 19.35B | 18.99B | 19.02B | 18.54B | 16.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.64B | 30.52B | 30.26B | 30.23B | 29.29B | 27.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.08B | 13.16B | 12.50B | 11.98B | 12.63B | 13.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.02B | 1.71B | 2.72B | 3.26B | 3.49B | 3.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.32B | 4.61B | 5.25B | 5.51B | 5.62B | 5.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.72B | -2.85B | -2.60B | -2.23B | -2.13B | -1.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.98B | -2.02B | -3.06B | -3.87B | -3.77B | -4.11B |
CSX Technical Analysis
Positive
53.23
Price Trends
47.84
Positive
44.98
Positive
40.91
Positive
Market Momentum
1.29
Negative
76.06
Negative
75.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.94, above the 50-day MA of 47.84, and above the 200-day MA of 40.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.
CSX Risk Analysis
CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CSX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $95.96B | 29.39 | 24.06% | 1.01% | 2.52% | 6.32% | |
75 Outperform | $47.16B | 47.24 | 23.42% | 0.49% | -4.77% | -10.37% | |
72 Outperform | $26.39B | 39.43 | 18.75% | 0.62% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
70 Outperform | $77.12B | 28.91 | 16.80% | 1.54% | 2.97% | -20.83% | |
69 Neutral | $177.81B | 23.80 | 38.65% | 1.80% | 4.17% | 7.24% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $20.56B | 33.87 | 33.32% | 1.35% | -6.68% | 18.19% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CSX
CSX
50.84
16.04
46.10%
CHRW
CH Robinson
169.34
73.21
76.16%
JBHT
JB Hunt
277.62
135.13
94.83%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
338.84
64.92
23.70%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
226.28
80.77
55.51%
UNP
Union Pacific
294.45
74.17
33.67%
CSX Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Buyback
CSX Announces Leadership Change and Major Buyback Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, CSX announced the immediate departure of Executive Vice President and Chief Digital Technology Officer Stephen Fortune, who will receive severance benefits under the company’s executive plan, while Steve Watkins, previously...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.