CSX (CSX)
NASDAQ:CSX
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CSX
(NASDAQ:CSX)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
â–²(9.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality anchored by strong cash flow, offset by weakening revenue/margins and elevated leverage. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is less compelling (P/E ~23 with a modest yield). Earnings call guidance is optimistic on margin and free cash flow, but execution and near-term demand/yield pressures temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and conversion
CSX's free cash flow recovery and 2025 FCF roughly equaling net income demonstrate durable cash conversion. That reliable cash generation supports reinvestment, debt servicing and returning capital while providing a buffer versus cyclical revenue pressures, improving long-term financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage reduces flexibility
Debt levels above historical norms constrain financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk during downturns, limits ability to fund opportunistic growth or buybacks, and reduces margin for error if cash flow weakens again amid cyclical headwinds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and conversion
CSX's free cash flow recovery and 2025 FCF roughly equaling net income demonstrate durable cash conversion. That reliable cash generation supports reinvestment, debt servicing and returning capital while providing a buffer versus cyclical revenue pressures, improving long-term financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
CSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.65B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)13.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-3.80%
EPS Growth-17.32%
CountryUS
Employees23,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding1,859,556,800
10 Day Avg. Volume14,584,894
30 Day Avg. Volume13,261,901
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.67
Price to Book (P/B)5.13
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio39.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.58Price Target Upside-1.55% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.50B
CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rai...
How the Company Makes Money
CSX makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight over its rail network. Revenue is generated across major shipment categories: (1) Intermodal—moving containerized freight (often in standardized domestic containers or internatio...
CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCSX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call balanced significant near-term challenges with actionable management responses. Q4 showed modest volume growth and notable intermodal strength plus clear operational and safety improvements, but results were materially weakened by a steep 97% decline in operating income and EPS, revenue and yield pressures (mix and coal pricing), and one-time charges and expense increases. Management provided specific cost savings programs (100+ initiatives), non‑recurring charge clean-up, capital discipline (CapEx < $2.4B) and ambitious margin targets (200–300 bps improvement) and FCF growth guidance (≥50%), but execution risk and a soft macro/inventory backdrop limit visibility. Given the severity of the reported earnings decline and ongoing market headwinds offsetting the positives and plans, the overall tone is cautiously negative.Positive Updates
Modest Volume Growth and Intermodal Strength
Total company volume increased 1% in Q4. Intermodal revenue grew 7% year over year on a 5% increase in volume, driven by new domestic and international wins and faster transit times.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Operating Income and EPS
Reported fourth-quarter operating income and earnings per share fell by 97% year over year versus adjusted prior-year figures, indicating a severe near-term earnings setback.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modest Volume Growth and Intermodal Strength
Total company volume increased 1% in Q4. Intermodal revenue grew 7% year over year on a 5% increase in volume, driven by new domestic and international wins and faster transit times.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CSX guided 2026 to low single‑digit revenue growth (assuming flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and fuel/coal prices near current levels), targets operating‑margin expansion of 200–300 basis points, plans capital expenditures below $2.4 billion, and expects free cash flow to increase at least 50% versus 2025; management noted 2025 included roughly $150 million of unique charges (about $50 million in Q4 — ~$31M separation and ~$21M technology impairments) that largely will not recur, ending real headcount finished the quarter down over 3%, and inflation assumptions are ~3–3.5% overall with a ~3.75% union wage increase next year. In Q4 operational/revenue metrics cited: total volume +1% and total revenue −1% (total RPU −2%), intermodal revenue +7% on volume +5%, coal volume +1% (domestic +6%, exports −3%; coal revenue −5%, coal RPU −6%), merchandise volume & revenue −2%, chemicals −6%, forest products −11%, fertilizer +7%, and automotive −5% — with the 200–300 bps margin improvement expected to come from workforce optimization, tighter discretionary spend, productivity gains and cycling of prior one‑time costs while preserving safety and service.CSX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 14.09B | 14.54B | 14.66B | 14.85B | 12.52B |
| Gross Profit | 4.68B | 5.51B | 5.60B | 5.72B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 5.87B | 7.07B | 7.27B | 7.59B | 7.09B |
| Net Income | 2.89B | 3.47B | 3.67B | 4.11B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 43.68B | 42.76B | 42.21B | 41.91B | 40.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 675.00M | 1.00B | 1.44B | 2.09B | 2.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.35B | 18.99B | 19.02B | 18.54B | 16.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.52B | 30.26B | 30.23B | 29.29B | 27.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.16B | 12.50B | 11.98B | 12.63B | 13.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.71B | 2.72B | 3.26B | 3.49B | 3.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.61B | 5.25B | 5.51B | 5.62B | 5.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.85B | -2.60B | -2.23B | -2.13B | -1.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.02B | -3.06B | -3.87B | -3.77B | -4.11B |
CSX Technical Analysis
Positive
41.22
Price Trends
40.09
Positive
37.85
Positive
35.99
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
58.69
Neutral
87.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.84, above the 50-day MA of 40.09, and above the 200-day MA of 35.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.
CSX Risk Analysis
CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CSX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $41.27B | 32.15 | 24.03% | 0.71% | -5.90% | -13.16% | |
77 Outperform | C$88.61B | 17.92 | 21.95% | 2.62% | 0.23% | -13.22% | |
73 Outperform | $145.21B | 19.20 | 41.95% | 2.32% | 1.06% | 8.21% | |
70 Outperform | C$98.60B | 22.36 | 8.90% | 0.82% | 4.02% | 21.39% | |
68 Neutral | $64.68B | 22.59 | 19.16% | 1.85% | 0.48% | 22.88% | |
67 Neutral | $76.65B | 23.39 | 22.90% | 1.42% | -3.80% | -17.32% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CSX
CSX
41.22
14.54
54.48%
TSE:CNR
Canadian National Railway
144.93
13.35
10.15%
TSE:CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
109.83
12.99
13.42%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
288.00
84.11
41.25%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
198.00
47.64
31.68%
UNP
Union Pacific
244.71
39.58
19.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.