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CSX
(NASDAQ:CSX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
â–²(13.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and free cash flow, despite leverage and some multi-year margin/top-line choppiness) and a constructive earnings outlook (upgraded 2026 guidance with expected margin and FCF expansion). Technicals are moderately supportive with positive trend and neutral momentum, while valuation is the main drag given a ~23.7 P/E and modest ~1.19% yield.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent multi-billion dollar free cash flow and OCF coverage (OCF > net income) provide durable funding for capex, debt paydown, dividends and buybacks. High FCF supports capital allocation flexibility and resilience through industry cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful financial leverage (debt/equity ~1.5) reduces flexibility in a cyclical industrial business. Higher leverage limits capacity to absorb downturns, increases interest sensitivity if rates rise, and constrains the pace of buybacks or incremental investment without improving free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent multi-billion dollar free cash flow and OCF coverage (OCF > net income) provide durable funding for capex, debt paydown, dividends and buybacks. High FCF supports capital allocation flexibility and resilience through industry cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$89.80B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)12.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.6
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-0.92%
EPS Growth-2.64%
CountryUS
Employees23,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.63
Shares Outstanding1,858,138,900
10 Day Avg. Volume12,552,164
30 Day Avg. Volume12,537,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.69
Price to Book (P/B)5.13
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio39.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.84Price Target Upside8.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)1.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.85B
CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and t...
How the Company Makes Money
CSX makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight over its rail network. Revenue is generated across major shipment categories: (1) Intermodal—moving containerized freight (often in standardized domestic containers or internatio...
CSX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive tone: management reported multiple operational and financial improvements (volume growth, expense reductions, strong fuel efficiency, safety gains, and upgraded revenue and margin guidance). Several transitory and structural headwinds were acknowledged—higher diesel prices (raising both revenue and expenses), non-recurring Q1 gains, mix-driven RPU pressure, segment-specific weakness (forest products, automotive, coal exports), and near-term operational disruptions from capital execution. Management emphasized continued productivity initiatives, capital discipline, and a multi-year effort to sustain improvements, implying confidence in sustaining momentum despite the cited risks.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Total revenue increased 2% year-over-year while total volume rose 3% in Q1 2026, with pricing gains and higher fuel recovery offset by mix.
Negative Updates
Revenue Per Unit and Mix Pressure
Total revenue per unit declined 1% YoY due to adverse business mix impacts, which offset some same-store pricing gains in merchandise.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Total revenue increased 2% year-over-year while total volume rose 3% in Q1 2026, with pricing gains and higher fuel recovery offset by mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CSX now expects full‑year 2026 revenue growth in the mid‑single‑digits (up from prior low‑single‑digit guidance), largely driven by higher diesel lift to fuel‑related revenue beginning in Q2 if diesel follows the forward curve; management anticipates year‑over‑year operating margin expansion of 200–300 basis points (trending toward the high end), total 2026 capital spending below $2.4 billion, and free cash flow to grow by more than 60% versus 2025. Management cautioned higher fuel will also raise expenses and that Q2 will include some non‑seasonal items (incentive compensation, timing of locomotive overhauls, advisory/transaction costs) and will not repeat Q1’s $44 million real‑estate gain; as context Q1 results were revenue +2% on volume +3%, total expenses −6% (−$153M) with over $100M of efficiency savings, operating income +20% and EPS +26%.CSX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.15B | 14.09B | 14.54B | 14.66B | 14.85B | 12.52B |
| Gross Profit | 5.31B | 4.68B | 5.51B | 5.60B | 5.72B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 6.49B | 5.87B | 7.07B | 7.27B | 7.59B | 7.09B |
| Net Income | 3.05B | 2.89B | 3.47B | 3.67B | 4.11B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 44.23B | 43.68B | 42.76B | 42.21B | 41.91B | 40.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.11B | 675.00M | 1.00B | 1.44B | 2.09B | 2.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.34B | 19.35B | 18.99B | 19.02B | 18.54B | 16.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.65B | 30.52B | 30.26B | 30.23B | 29.29B | 27.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.57B | 13.16B | 12.50B | 11.98B | 12.63B | 13.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.13B | 1.71B | 2.72B | 3.26B | 3.49B | 3.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.63B | 4.61B | 5.25B | 5.51B | 5.62B | 5.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.77B | -2.85B | -2.60B | -2.23B | -2.13B | -1.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.03B | -2.02B | -3.06B | -3.87B | -3.77B | -4.11B |
CSX Technical Analysis
Positive
43.32
Price Trends
45.90
Positive
43.43
Positive
39.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.56
Negative
63.20
Neutral
84.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.91, below the 50-day MA of 45.90, and above the 200-day MA of 39.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.
CSX Risk Analysis
CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CSX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $45.33B | 45.50 | 23.42% | 0.71% | -4.77% | -10.37% | |
72 Outperform | C$102.67B | 22.27 | 21.93% | 2.62% | 0.47% | 6.34% | |
72 Outperform | C$107.25B | 24.56 | 8.78% | 0.82% | 1.10% | 8.73% | |
72 Outperform | $164.89B | 22.82 | 40.38% | 2.32% | 1.87% | 9.41% | |
71 Outperform | $89.80B | 29.65 | 23.52% | 1.42% | -0.92% | -2.64% | |
68 Neutral | $71.64B | 26.87 | 17.43% | 1.85% | 0.60% | -19.01% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CSX
CSX
48.33
15.20
45.88%
TSE:CNR
Canadian National Railway
169.25
27.93
19.77%
TSE:CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
122.96
13.64
12.47%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
318.99
61.27
23.78%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
217.96
48.04
28.27%
UNP
Union Pacific
277.73
46.70
20.21%
CSX Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
CSX Announces Leadership Change and Major Buyback Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, CSX announced the immediate departure of Executive Vice President and Chief Digital Technology Officer Stephen Fortune, who will receive severance benefits under the company’s executive plan, while Steve Watkins, previously...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.